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Player Spotlight: Jamal Lewis (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jamal Lewis, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Jamal Lewis Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
Their have been alot of arguements about him lately and just like in those I'm taking the stance that Lewis should be a top 15 rb this year. The reasons are based on an improvement in the Balt. offense, especially with the signing of McNair. Of course Jamal being able to be in mini-camp on time this year and being in shape and being healthy should healp as well. Jamal also seems to have a bit of a chip on his shoulder this year and a man of his talent should exceed expectations.

He'll be a great steal for people on draft day in the 3rd round

1340 yards rushing

140 recieving

8 td's

 
I think Jamal should feel enlightened. His legal woes are behind him. His team has decided to give him another shot and brought in Mike Anderson to give him some competition and stoke the fires. I like the offense much more with McNair being there and hopefully the O-line is atleast middle of the road. He turns 27 sometime this year and should be hitting his prime.

1360 rush yds

315 attempts

11 td's

35 recpts

245 yds

1 td

 
I think that Jamal is in for a big year, and a return to the top 10. Shedding Chester Taylor is a small reason. Getting a QB that can distribute the ball helps. But a big kicker that I haven't seen mentioned is getting a healthy LB back in Ray Lewis.

The Ravens D has the potential to return a great/good unit. If they can stop the oposition from controlling the ball... it should result in more touches and ball control on the Ravens offensive side.

I see his yardage jumping up big time, but his TD's to remain smaller with McNair vulturing some short yardage scores.

1420 rushing yds

310 receiving

1730 total yards

9 tds

 
I think that Jamal is in for a big year, and a return to the top 10. Shedding Chester Taylor is a small reason. Getting a QB that can distribute the ball helps. But a big kicker that I haven't seen mentioned is getting a healthy LB back in Ray Lewis.

The Ravens D has the potential to return a great/good unit. If they can stop the oposition from controlling the ball... it should result in more touches and ball control on the Ravens offensive side.

I see his yardage jumping up big time, but his TD's to remain smaller with McNair vulturing some short yardage scores.

1420 rushing yds

310 receiving

1730 total yards

9 tds
Click to expand...
You don't see Mike Anderson running for 800+ yards this year?
 
I think that Jamal is in for a big year, and a return to the top 10. Shedding Chester Taylor is a small reason. Getting a QB that can distribute the ball helps. But a big kicker that I haven't seen mentioned is getting a healthy LB back in Ray Lewis.

The Ravens D has the potential to return a great/good unit. If they can stop the oposition from controlling the ball... it should result in more touches and ball control on the Ravens offensive side.

I see his yardage jumping up big time, but his TD's to remain smaller with McNair vulturing some short yardage scores.

1420 rushing yds

310 receiving

1730 total yards

9 tds
Click to expand...
I really don't think Ray Lewis' health is going to change my projections for Jamal Lewis for much. If the quality of defenses in general have little net impact on a RB's fantasy production, it follows even stronger that an IDP will have one.
 
I find it pretty hard to get excited about Jamal Lewis. His YPC have dropped by a full yard each of the last two years. He has been a mediocre TD guy for most of his career. And his team just added a TD machine who outperformed Jamal significantly last year.

Lewis' big year came when the Ravens ran well over 100 times more than they passed. That's not going to happen this year, and the Ravens may continue to be a pass happy team in 2006.

 
I find it pretty hard to get excited about Jamal Lewis. His YPC have dropped by a full yard each of the last two years. He has been a mediocre TD guy for most of his career. And his team just added a TD machine who outperformed Jamal significantly last year.

Lewis' big year came when the Ravens ran well over 100 times more than they passed. That's not going to happen this year, and the Ravens may continue to be a pass happy team in 2006.
Click to expand...
I agree. I see the Ravens using Anderson exclusively in the red zone, while Lewis will be the back who runs between the 20's. Anderson is getting up there in age, and despite the fact that his career started late, that age is still a factor in his overall health. They want to be able to use a RBBC approach in terms of an every-down back and a TD specialist. (Going by the lack of TD production by Lewis as you mentioned.)
 
I find it pretty hard to get excited about Jamal Lewis. His YPC have dropped by a full yard each of the last two years. He has been a mediocre TD guy for most of his career. And his team just added a TD machine who outperformed Jamal significantly last year.Lewis' big year came when the Ravens ran well over 100 times more than they passed. That's not going to happen this year, and the Ravens may continue to be a pass happy team in 2006.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: If Billick was going to pound the ball in 2006, he wouldn't have traded for McNair.

that's a sure sign to me that they intend to open up the passing game in '06...

I do see Jamal on some kind of a rebound this year, but he's never been a big TD guy, and aside from that 2k+ season, he's been just another average RB..

 
I think that Jamal is in for a big year, and a return to the top 10.  Shedding Chester Taylor is a small reason.  Getting a QB that can distribute the ball helps.  But a big kicker that I haven't seen mentioned is getting a healthy LB back in Ray Lewis. 

The Ravens D has the potential to return a great/good unit.  If they can stop the oposition from controlling the ball... it should result in more touches and ball control on the Ravens offensive side. 

I see his yardage jumping up big time, but his TD's to remain smaller with McNair vulturing some short yardage scores.

1420 rushing yds

310 receiving

1730 total yards

9 tds
Click to expand...
You don't see Mike Anderson running for 800+ yards this year?
Click to expand...
There's not a chance unless Jamal is injured. Anderson is not the starter and based on his ypc from last year (which he won't achieve in the Balt offense) he would need 190+ carries to get 800 yards.
 
I think that Jamal is in for a big year, and a return to the top 10. Shedding Chester Taylor is a small reason. Getting a QB that can distribute the ball helps. But a big kicker that I haven't seen mentioned is getting a healthy LB back in Ray Lewis.

The Ravens D has the potential to return a great/good unit. If they can stop the oposition from controlling the ball... it should result in more touches and ball control on the Ravens offensive side.

I see his yardage jumping up big time, but his TD's to remain smaller with McNair vulturing some short yardage scores.

1420 rushing yds

310 receiving

1730 total yards

9 tds
Click to expand...
You don't see Mike Anderson running for 800+ yards this year?
Click to expand...
no
 
229 rushes

665 rushing yards

3 TDs

14 receptions

48 receiving yards

+ no receiving TDs

lots of seriously disappointed Jamal owners

 
229 rushes

665 rushing yards

3 TDs

14 receptions

48 receiving yards

+ no receiving TDs

lots of seriously disappointed Jamal owners
Click to expand...
I'm not going to be one of these people who say your opinion is horrible or nothing I just disagree and I'd like to know why you see SUCH A HORRIBLE SEASON. Others are putting him with a bad season but not this bad. Let me see why you think he'll do this bad please. 1) Do you think Mike Anderson will cut into his time?

2) Do you think their team in all is just really bad?

3) Do you think Balt.'s schedule is really tough?

4) Do you just think Jamal is done and doesn't have the talent anymore?

Feel free to say anything else either, just want to see why you have these thoughts.

 
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To me, the biggest question mark is the O-line. If they can even be mediocre, I say Lewis has a pretty good year. I agree that signing McNair points to Billick intending to put the ball in the air more, but this will only help Lewis. I think he'll still get 25 to 30 touches a game. He's going to be in camp on time. He won't have legal issues to worry about, for the first time in a long time. And this is a contract year for him. And as far as Mike Anderson goes...this is Lewis' job to lose. Sure, he was brought in to give Lewis some competition in camp, but I can't bring myself to believe that any of the Baltimore coaching staff expect Lewis to relinquish his position on the depth chart.

1350 yds

250 yds rec

10 total TD's

 
not to hijack....but relating to Anderson. Have we ever seen a RB leave Denver and perform in the very next year?

I believe it takes time to learn the different blocking schemes...It took Portis 2 years and I think we'll all agree that Portis > Anderson. Just something else to think about.

I see Jamal going for:

1440

9 TD's

300

1 TD

 
not to hijack....but relating to Anderson. Have we ever seen a RB leave Denver and perform in the very next year?

I believe it takes time to learn the different blocking schemes...It took Portis 2 years and I think we'll all agree that Portis > Anderson. Just something else to think about.

I see Jamal going for:

1440

9 TD's

300

1 TD
Click to expand...
Reuben Droughns last year.
 
I don't want to discredit Mike Anderson's impact to the Raven's offense. But I think too many on this board are quick to downgrade Jamal based upon his last two years, and too quick to give Anderson credit.

Anderson came back to form last year and managed to get over 1000 yards in Denver. I don't see this soon to be 33 year old repeating this performance in Baltimore. He will see the short yardage TD's.

McNair might have been brought in to help in the passing game. Baltimore now has a threat in the air, which means that defenses now have to respect it. Rather than bunching the box. This should help Lewis in freeing up space to run. McNair also helps in 3rd down conversions, which will keep Lewis on the field more, given him more reps, and the opportunity to get in a groove.

It is really easy to underestimate the toll that this guy took when he was going through all his off field problems. With that behind him, his focus can have the opportunity to get back to 2003 form.

I truly think that this guy is a sleeper this season. I expect that when the powers that run this site re-evaluate his projections with McNair in the mix, you will see him jump up the rankings.

I was way overstated though in my earlier projections. :thumbdown:

1400 total yards

1160 rushing

240 receiving

8 TDS's

 
Anderson came back to form last year and managed to get over 1000 yards in Denver. I don't see this soon to be 33 year old repeating this performance in Baltimore.
Click to expand...
Anderson was one of only five 32 year old RBs in NFL history to rush for 1000 yards. One guy (Emmitt Smith) improved slightly. Two guys (James Brooks and Ottis Anderson) saw big declines. The other (Walter Payton) fell off the map.The group of RBs with over 1000 rushing yards will decline as a whole, but this group declined a bit more than average. They went from 1095 rushing yards (not including Anderson) to 573 rushing yards. All this is just a long way of saying you have good reason to be worried about age.

On the other hand, two of those guys (Payton and Emmitt) are 1st and 2nd on the all-time NFL carries list. Anderson's had a pretty light career workload. And a sample size of four won't tell us a whole lot.

 
not to hijack....but relating to Anderson. Have we ever seen a RB leave Denver and perform in the very next year?

I believe it takes time to learn the different blocking schemes...It took Portis 2 years and I think we'll all agree that Portis > Anderson. Just something else to think about.

I see Jamal going for:

1440

9 TD's

300

1 TD
Click to expand...
Better question, have we seen a Denver Rb leave and NOT produce the next year?Gary is the only example I can think of, and his problems were mainly injury related after he tore his ACL in 2000.

Portis and Droughns are the only other guys that have left since 1995, and both produced in their next year.

 
I like Lewis's chances of having a solid season this year. I think the pieces are in line for him to succeed.

- new QB to keep Def honest

- some improvements in draft to def to keep games close

- no major changes in OL or coaching staff

- no serious competition for RB1

- no off the field issues

- in training camp

Serious sleeper pick, for where is going right now.

305

1320

8 td

156 rec

1 td

I don't necessarily think McNair was brought in with the thought they would open up the passing game more. He does give them that option, but more than anything else he's a proven leader and demands respect from opposing defenses, unlike Boller. I think the offense still runs through Jamal. They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.

 
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.

 
In watching him play, I thought he ran much stronger at the end of the season than he did at the begiining. Think this carries over to this year.

310 carries 1270 yards rushing 7 TDs 190 yards receiving 1 TD

1460 total yards 8 total TDs

 
I see a good season as last year wasnt much of a surprise for me. He couldnt rehab his leg the way he wouldve liked to due to being in jail. I can see 300-1200-6; 24-200-0 Im assuming that slots him as a high end #2 RB.

 
I definitely see Anderson cutting into Lewis' PT this year, as well as a better passing game now that McNair is there. They have capable receivers and a good TE, so I think they'll be airing it up a bit more...

254 rushes

1087 yards

8 TDs

28 receptions

223 yards

0 TDs

 
Either I'm way underestimating Lewis' talent and opportunity this year, or some of these projections are wishful thinking/living in the past (and it definitely could be the former and I could be totally misguided).

Now I don't see Mike Anderson getting the lion's share of the carries in 06, but I think he'll get a decent opportunity, especially in short yardage and goal line situations. Add to Anderson's arrival the fact that neither Lewis nor the Bal rushing game in general have been that strong the past two years, and I don't think its likely Lewis rushes for anything near 1300 yards and 10 TDs.

I see Lewis posting decent numbers in 06, but not RB1/RB2 type numbers (probably closer to RB2/RB3 numbers in most leagues).

Rush Yds: 910

Rush TDs: 4

Recs: 30

Rec Yds: 225

Rec TDs: 1

 
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229 rushes

  665 rushing yards

  3 TDs

  14 receptions

  48 receiving yards

+  no receiving TDs

lots of seriously disappointed Jamal owners
Click to expand...
I'm not going to be one of these people who say your opinion is horrible or nothing I just disagree and I'd like to know why you see SUCH A HORRIBLE SEASON. Others are putting him with a bad season but not this bad. Let me see why you think he'll do this bad please. 1) Do you think Mike Anderson will cut into his time?

2) Do you think their team in all is just really bad?

3) Do you think Balt.'s schedule is really tough?

4) Do you just think Jamal is done and doesn't have the talent anymore?

Feel free to say anything else either, just want to see why you have these thoughts.
Click to expand...
To answer your questions:1. Yes, I think Anderson will cut into his time, especially later in the season. I base this on the fact that Jamal's production over the last three years has plummeted from 5.3 to 4.3 to 3.4 ypc. I am predicting, conservatively, that it will fall half that much this year to 2.9 ypc. I think Billick will feel frustrated and turn to Anderson as a result.

2. Yes, their offense is that bad and McNair won't do much to help. Even last year few teams feared McNair. His best days are behind him which is why the Titans let him go. I owned Jamal two years ago and got to watch him play several times. Without Ogden (who is also getting long in the tooth) on the O-line, the Ravens could not run at all. Jamal did a lot of dancing, but no hard north-south running you would expect of a player his size. Furthermore, the Ravens ranked 21st in rushing last year and that was with a fairly healthy Ogden. Not a great sign of things to come.

3. The schedule is more tough than kind. Through week 16 (I don't count week 17 when teams rest starters), the Ravens go up against 7 teams that ranked in the top 10 in rushing defense as opposed to only 5 games against teams that ranked in the bottom 10.

4. Is Jamal done or doesn't have the talent anymore? The answer may lie somewhere in between or outside entirely. Outside of his 14 touchdowns in 2003, Jamal only got 7 TDs each in 2002 and 2004 and only 3 last year. Outside of his two monster games against Cleveland in 2003, he was only average at best. After watching him dance in the hole instead of pushing the pile I can say his talent was only ever above-average for a starting RB. Sure, he had break-away speed for a big RB, but he rarely made his own hole, instead relying entirely on the O-line, especially Ogden, to do it.

Hope that answers your questions. I am warning you now, if you draft him, you will be sorely disappointed.

 
229 rushes

665 rushing yards

3 TDs

14 receptions

48 receiving yards

+ no receiving TDs

lots of seriously disappointed Jamal owners
Click to expand...
I'm not going to be one of these people who say your opinion is horrible or nothing I just disagree and I'd like to know why you see SUCH A HORRIBLE SEASON. Others are putting him with a bad season but not this bad. Let me see why you think he'll do this bad please. 1) Do you think Mike Anderson will cut into his time?

2) Do you think their team in all is just really bad?

3) Do you think Balt.'s schedule is really tough?

4) Do you just think Jamal is done and doesn't have the talent anymore?

Feel free to say anything else either, just want to see why you have these thoughts.
Click to expand...
To answer your questions:1. Yes, I think Anderson will cut into his time, especially later in the season. I base this on the fact that Jamal's production over the last three years has plummeted from 5.3 to 4.3 to 3.4 ypc. I am predicting, conservatively, that it will fall half that much this year to 2.9 ypc. I think Billick will feel frustrated and turn to Anderson as a result.

2. Yes, their offense is that bad and McNair won't do much to help. Even last year few teams feared McNair. His best days are behind him which is why the Titans let him go. I owned Jamal two years ago and got to watch him play several times. Without Ogden (who is also getting long in the tooth) on the O-line, the Ravens could not run at all. Jamal did a lot of dancing, but no hard north-south running you would expect of a player his size. Furthermore, the Ravens ranked 21st in rushing last year and that was with a fairly healthy Ogden. Not a great sign of things to come.

3. The schedule is more tough than kind. Through week 16 (I don't count week 17 when teams rest starters), the Ravens go up against 7 teams that ranked in the top 10 in rushing defense as opposed to only 5 games against teams that ranked in the bottom 10.

4. Is Jamal done or doesn't have the talent anymore? The answer may lie somewhere in between or outside entirely. Outside of his 14 touchdowns in 2003, Jamal only got 7 TDs each in 2002 and 2004 and only 3 last year. Outside of his two monster games against Cleveland in 2003, he was only average at best. After watching him dance in the hole instead of pushing the pile I can say his talent was only ever above-average for a starting RB. Sure, he had break-away speed for a big RB, but he rarely made his own hole, instead relying entirely on the O-line, especially Ogden, to do it.

Hope that answers your questions. I am warning you now, if you draft him, you will be sorely disappointed.
Click to expand...
Although I don't completely agree with the way you see things I do think you bring up some nice points. I already have him in a dynasty league as my #3 or #4 rb behind Brown and Portis with Bush. I do think he offers excellent VALUE for where he is being drafted. If you were to ask me if I would want to put my faith in K. Jones, J. Jones, W. Parker, Droughens or Dunn (the 5 rb's picked right above him on avg.) I could honestly say I'd rather go to war with Jamal. I also think McNair is still a very nice qb and will keep defenses much more honest than what you think.
 
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They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
I think you can throw last year out since it was a complete disaster from top to bottom. The Ravens didn't pass because the wanted to last year, they did it because they had to. Their defense fell apart, they couldn't run the ball (line was awful, Jamal was bad, etc.) and they were playing catchup in the 2nd half of most games so of course they had to pass more....
 
I find it pretty hard to get excited about Jamal Lewis. His YPC have dropped by a full yard each of the last two years. He has been a mediocre TD guy for most of his career. And his team just added a TD machine who outperformed Jamal significantly last year.Lewis' big year came when the Ravens ran well over 100 times more than they passed. That's not going to happen this year, and the Ravens may continue to be a pass happy team in 2006.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: If Billick was going to pound the ball in 2006, he wouldn't have traded for McNair.

that's a sure sign to me that they intend to open up the passing game in '06...

I do see Jamal on some kind of a rebound this year, but he's never been a big TD guy, and aside from that 2k+ season, he's been just another average RB..
Click to expand...
I don't think the signing of McNair signals a pass happy offense. I don't they brought him in to simply pass more as a team. I think the overwhelming factor for bringing him in is to get more consistency from the passing game. A better completion %, better production on 3rd down, provide better team leadership, and opening up the running game. Also, does anyone know what Jamal's weight is at and how in shape he actually is?
 
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I do think he offers excellent VALUE for where he is being drafted. If you were to ask me if I would want to put my faith in K. Jones, J. Jones, W. Parker, Droughens or Dunn (the 5 rb's picked right above him on avg.) I could honestly say I'd rather go to war with Jamal.
Click to expand...
Really? I'm with Weasel on this one. Of that list, I can pick two that I would rather go with than Lewis. I'd take Droughns and J.Jones before I took Lewis at that point. But thats just me...Sorry..corrected..

 
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I do think he offers excellent VALUE for where he is being drafted. If you were to ask me if I would want to put my faith in K. Jones, J. Jones, W. Parker, Droughens or Dunn (the 5 rb's picked right above him on avg.) I could honestly say I'd rather go to war with Jamal.
Click to expand...
Really? I'm with Weasel on this one. Of that list, I can pick two that I would rather go with than Lewis. I'd take Droughns and Jones before I took Lewis at that point. But thats just me...
Click to expand...
Which Jones?
 
I wonder how many times in the past a team has acquired a backup RB that had more rushing yards the seasons before than the incumbent starter. (Anderson 1,014 vs Lewis 906)

 
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
Last year was an anomally, as Jamal couldn't get it going and the defense wasn't as stingy as usual. Balt is a run first, conservative, win with the defense type team. They will get back to that this year, and Jamal will have a good year. Nothing to get excited about, but I project closer games and less stacking the line, which should open up the running game. Lewis just seems to be one of those guys that has the stars aligned this year. I see upside when I look at where he's giong.
 
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
Last year was an anomally, as Jamal couldn't get it going and the defense wasn't as stingy as usual. Balt is a run first, conservative, win with the defense type team. They will get back to that this year, and Jamal will have a good year. Nothing to get excited about, but I project closer games and less stacking the line, which should open up the running game. Lewis just seems to be one of those guys that has the stars aligned this year. I see upside when I look at where he's giong.
Click to expand...
For those of you who call it an anomaly, remember two things...1) Jim Fassel called the plays last year -- In his coaching tenure Fassel has favored the pass fairly consistently. In his seven seasons at the helm in New York, the Giants averaged:

549 pass attempts
461 rush attempts
+88 more pass attempts than rushing attempts2) Brian Billick came to Baltimore as a pass-happy (and innovative) offensive mind. The personnel dictated he win in a more conservative fashion. But, after a seemingly never ending search for a reliable QB, he has one now. Look at their personnel moves the last few years...adding McNair, adding Mason, drafting Clayton; why would you really presume the Ravens won't pass more than run and be closer to the league averages in that disparity?

 
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
Last year was an anomally, as Jamal couldn't get it going and the defense wasn't as stingy as usual. Balt is a run first, conservative, win with the defense type team. They will get back to that this year, and Jamal will have a good year. Nothing to get excited about, but I project closer games and less stacking the line, which should open up the running game. Lewis just seems to be one of those guys that has the stars aligned this year. I see upside when I look at where he's giong.
Click to expand...
For those of you who call it an anomaly, remember two things...1) Jim Fassel called the plays last year -- In his coaching tenure Fassel has favored the pass fairly consistently. In his seven seasons at the helm in New York, the Giants averaged:

549 pass attempts
461 rush attempts
+88 more pass attempts than rushing attempts2) Brian Billick came to Baltimore as a pass-happy (and innovative) offensive mind. The personnel dictated he win in a more conservative fashion. But, after a seemingly never ending search for a reliable QB, he has one now. Look at their personnel moves the last few years...adding McNair, adding Mason, drafting Clayton; why would you really presume the Ravens won't pass more than run and be closer to the league averages in that disparity?
Click to expand...
Right, and how has that worked out for them so far? They were 6-10 last year and 9-7 the year before. When did Fassel start calling plays? Surely they will evaluate how they were able to win games in the past versus what's going on now.

I don't discredit your comments at all, I think you make good points. But surely they will realize what has worked for them in the past.

Edit to add that they haven't had the weapons they've had in the past, and that could be why it hasn't worked so far. You may have a point, and I will temper my expectations accordingly. I still think it's fair to assume Jamal gets 290-310 rushes this year, despite a possibly increase in passing production. The fact that they can pass may actually increase his TD opportunities as they are better able to move into scoring position. Obviously it will open up some running lanes.

 
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They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
I think you can throw last year out since it was a complete disaster from top to bottom. The Ravens didn't pass because the wanted to last year, they did it because they had to. Their defense fell apart, they couldn't run the ball (line was awful, Jamal was bad, etc.) and they were playing catchup in the 2nd half of most games so of course they had to pass more....
Click to expand...
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
Last year was an anomally, as Jamal couldn't get it going and the defense wasn't as stingy as usual. Balt is a run first, conservative, win with the defense type team. They will get back to that this year, and Jamal will have a good year. Nothing to get excited about, but I project closer games and less stacking the line, which should open up the running game. Lewis just seems to be one of those guys that has the stars aligned this year. I see upside when I look at where he's giong.
Click to expand...
I see both of you think last year was an anomoly and the defense fell apart. The Ravens D ranked 4th in 2003, 6th in 2004, and 5th in 2005. Baltimore was 8th in YPA allowed and 2nd in YPC alowed. That's right in line with their previous two seasons. The defense was stingy as usual for sure last year. They allowed slightly more points than the previous years, but still ranked 10th in points allowed: the D certainly didn't fall apart.
 
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
I think you can throw last year out since it was a complete disaster from top to bottom. The Ravens didn't pass because the wanted to last year, they did it because they had to. Their defense fell apart, they couldn't run the ball (line was awful, Jamal was bad, etc.) and they were playing catchup in the 2nd half of most games so of course they had to pass more....
Click to expand...
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
Last year was an anomally, as Jamal couldn't get it going and the defense wasn't as stingy as usual. Balt is a run first, conservative, win with the defense type team. They will get back to that this year, and Jamal will have a good year. Nothing to get excited about, but I project closer games and less stacking the line, which should open up the running game. Lewis just seems to be one of those guys that has the stars aligned this year. I see upside when I look at where he's giong.
Click to expand...
I see both of you think last year was an anomoly and the defense fell apart. The Ravens D ranked 4th in 2003, 6th in 2004, and 5th in 2005. Baltimore was 8th in YPA allowed and 2nd in YPC alowed. That's right in line with their previous two seasons. The defense was stingy as usual for sure last year. They allowed slightly more points than the previous years, but still ranked 10th in points allowed: the D certainly didn't fall apart.
Click to expand...
I can't remember every game, but it seems like they were down a lot. Whether it was the def not holding people or the offense just not getting it going early. Anyway, my point is that things look GOOD for Lewis this year, whether the def plays tighter or not. He's got a lot of things pointing towards a successful season, IMO. McNair doesn't HURT his value, he HELPS it. They won't throw so much that Lewis's production will suffer greatly. The fact that they can throw only helps him.
 
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
I think you can throw last year out since it was a complete disaster from top to bottom. The Ravens didn't pass because the wanted to last year, they did it because they had to. Their defense fell apart, they couldn't run the ball (line was awful, Jamal was bad, etc.) and they were playing catchup in the 2nd half of most games so of course they had to pass more....
Click to expand...
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
Last year was an anomally, as Jamal couldn't get it going and the defense wasn't as stingy as usual. Balt is a run first, conservative, win with the defense type team. They will get back to that this year, and Jamal will have a good year. Nothing to get excited about, but I project closer games and less stacking the line, which should open up the running game. Lewis just seems to be one of those guys that has the stars aligned this year. I see upside when I look at where he's giong.
Click to expand...
I see both of you think last year was an anomoly and the defense fell apart. The Ravens D ranked 4th in 2003, 6th in 2004, and 5th in 2005. Baltimore was 8th in YPA allowed and 2nd in YPC alowed. That's right in line with their previous two seasons. The defense was stingy as usual for sure last year. They allowed slightly more points than the previous years, but still ranked 10th in points allowed: the D certainly didn't fall apart.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I stand corrected....
 
My thoughts on Jamal Lewis and the Baltimore offense:

1. Steve McNair is an upgrade at QB, but he's not exactly in his prime. He's 33 and with all the hits he's taken, it's a very old 33. His Y/A his last two years were 6.2 and 6.6. He can come in and give the Ravens a credible passing game, but anyone expecting an Air show will be disappointed.

2. The Ravens' high pass percentage won't be repeated. I don't care what Billick did 10 years ago in Minnesota on a team loaded with WR talent. His Baltimore teams have run. Even in 2004 they ran more than they threw.

Last year they threw because they couldn't run. In the second halves of games, the Ravens threw 301 times and ran 200. That's not a team passing because they want to. That's a team passing because they have to.

3. No one likes excuses, but Lewis has plenty of them for last year. Limited prep time and a terrible o-line earn him a mulligan. 2003 is what happens when everything goes right, 2005 is when it all goes wrong. Every other year he's performed about the same, just over 4 yards per pop. From what I read the o-line should play better and Lewis should be back in shape. I don't see why he doesn't have another typical Jamal Lewis year.

4. Mike Anderson is 33 and averaged a whopping 4.2 YPC in RB Heaven last year. He seems more like a solid backup than a legit threat.

5. The Ravens don't have a third down back right now, but they're not just going to never pass to the RB. Jamal should catch a few more passes than usual.

Overall, I see a fairly standard Jamal Lewis season on the way:

300 carries

1230 yards

8 rush TDs

36 catches

288 yards

1 rec TD

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Too much Jamal love going on here. Looks like everyone beleives he can rush for at least 1,000 yds but that will be too much. JL: 252 att, 958 yds, 3.8 avg, 5td, 31 rec for 188yds and 1 rec td. Alright, first of all Steve McNair is an upgrade. This is why more TDs will be going to Derrick Mason. Next, Mike Anderson will take many a carry from Jamal. The offensive line is not helping the Jamal situation, and the defense won't ever be as good as it was when Jamal was on top of his game. Most importantly, how many backs have done anything of importance three years after a 2,000 yard season? I dont know for sure, but I'm guessing none of them... look it up or something. Jamal has just been so consistently injured and will probably never have a full season again.

 
Too much Jamal love going on here. Looks like everyone beleives he can rush for at least 1,000 yds but that will be too much. JL: 252 att, 958 yds, 3.8 avg, 5td, 31 rec for 188yds and 1 rec td. Alright, first of all Steve McNair is an upgrade. This is why more TDs will be going to Derrick Mason. Next, Mike Anderson will take many a carry from Jamal. The offensive line is not helping the Jamal situation, and the defense won't ever be as good as it was when Jamal was on top of his game. Most importantly, how many backs have done anything of importance three years after a 2,000 yard season? I dont know for sure, but I'm guessing none of them... look it up or something. Jamal has just been so consistently injured and will probably never have a full season again.
Click to expand...
LOL, how many 2000 yard backs have there been?
 
Too much Jamal love going on here. Looks like everyone beleives he can rush for at least 1,000 yds but that will be too much. JL: 252 att, 958 yds, 3.8 avg, 5td, 31 rec for 188yds and 1 rec td. Alright, first of all Steve McNair is an upgrade. This is why more TDs will be going to Derrick Mason. Next, Mike Anderson will take many a carry from Jamal. The offensive line is not helping the Jamal situation, and the defense won't ever be as good as it was when Jamal was on top of his game. Most importantly, how many backs have done anything of importance three years after a 2,000 yard season? I dont know for sure, but I'm guessing none of them... look it up or something. Jamal has just been so consistently injured and will probably never have a full season again.
Click to expand...
O.J. had what many consider the greatest fantasy season of all time two years after his 2000 yard season. I'm not sure if there's any difference between two and three years out, but I'm willing to listen. He also ranked as the third best fantasy RB three years out.Ironically enough, Eric Dickerson also ranked as the 1st FF RB two years out from his 2000 yard season, and the 3rd FF RB three years out.

 
Too much Jamal love going on here.  Looks like everyone beleives he can rush for at least 1,000 yds but that will be too much.  JL:  252 att, 958 yds, 3.8 avg, 5td, 31 rec for 188yds and 1 rec td.  Alright, first of all Steve McNair is an upgrade.  This is why more TDs will be going to Derrick Mason.  Next, Mike Anderson will take many a carry from Jamal.  The offensive line is not helping the Jamal situation, and the defense won't ever be as good as it was when Jamal was on top of his game.  Most importantly, how many backs have done anything of importance three years after a 2,000 yard season?  I dont know for sure, but I'm guessing none of them... look it up or something.  Jamal has just been so consistently injured and will probably never have a full season again.
Click to expand...
O.J. had what many consider the greatest fantasy season of all time two years after his 2000 yard season. I'm not sure if there's any difference between two and three years out, but I'm willing to listen. He also ranked as the third best fantasy RB three years out.Ironically enough, Eric Dickerson also ranked as the 1st FF RB two years out from his 2000 yard season, and the 3rd FF RB three years out.
Click to expand...
#2 FF RB, # 3 FF RB...I'll take either one...I ain't picky. :D :thumbup: (Jamal owner)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Jamal Lewis needs a delorian set to to reach most of the stats.

He has had 8tds or more ONE TIME.

He has been in the top ten RBs ONE TIME.

He's been outside the top 25 twice, the last two years.

"but he was injurred". Again, or still? I am not clear, we heard he was good last year till his perfomance started slipping then it as the injury again.

Well I am not a believer. 3.4 YPC last year. Awful

Give him 950 yards, 5 tds, and at best a split time with Anderson by the end of the season.

 
They may be a little more pass happy, but I don't see them going much over what they usually do.
Click to expand...
Here's something interesting2005: 110 more pass attempts than rush attempts

2004: 25 more rush attempts than pass attempts

2003: 139 more rush attempts than pass attempts

The Ravens saw their run/pass differential decrease by 114 from '03 to '04, and then 135 from '04 to '05. I'm not sure there's anything the Ravens usually do.
Click to expand...
I think you can throw last year out since it was a complete disaster from top to bottom. The Ravens didn't pass because the wanted to last year, they did it because they had to. Their defense fell apart, they couldn't run the ball (line was awful, Jamal was bad, etc.) and they were playing catchup in the 2nd half of most games so of course they had to pass more....
Click to expand...
Eggs-zachary!
 
Too much Jamal love going on here.  Looks like everyone beleives he can rush for at least 1,000 yds but that will be too much.  JL:  252 att, 958 yds, 3.8 avg, 5td, 31 rec for 188yds and 1 rec td.  Alright, first of all Steve McNair is an upgrade.  This is why more TDs will be going to Derrick Mason.  Next, Mike Anderson will take many a carry from Jamal.  The offensive line is not helping the Jamal situation, and the defense won't ever be as good as it was when Jamal was on top of his game.  Most importantly, how many backs have done anything of importance three years after a 2,000 yard season?  I dont know for sure, but I'm guessing none of them... look it up or something.  Jamal has just been so consistently injured and will probably never have a full season again.
Click to expand...
LOL, how many 2000 yard backs have there been?
Click to expand...
Banger...Lewis is remarkably consistent in his career save for the 2,000 yard season. He's not a prolific scorer, he's limited as a receiver...unless he can get you 1,500-2,000 yards rushing, he's hard pressed to earn his keep at his annualized ADP.
 
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