Player Spotlight: Michael Clayton (1 Viewer)

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Clayton, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Michael Clayton Player Page

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Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
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For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

If ever we needed an example of how fickle fantasy football owners are, we need look no further then Micahael Clayton. Clayton excelled in his rookie season but was nowhere near as productive in an injury-filled sophomore campaign. His fantasy ranking took a dive from one year to the next, dropping from WR13 to WR94 in just one season. Clayton's current ADP is as WR27, and there is no reason to think that a healthy Clayton will not rebound (rumors of partying aside).

Clayton put up the third most receptions and fourth most receiving yards ever for a rookie WR. The Bucs have churned through several QB in that time and seem likely to go with Chris Simms as their starter. Joey Galloway had a career year last year to help offset the nagging injuries to Clayton, but the odds of a 36 year old WR repeating his numbers from last year are slim, especially given his knack for getting hurt himself.

I look for Clayton to rebound back to his 2004 numbers and represent serious value on draft day. Galloway can't play forever, and Clayton will start inheriting the WR1 slot and the production it brings. 85-1175-8.

I posted this in another thread, but thought it might evoke some discussion:

Disclaimer: I know injury claimed some of the blame for Clayton's lower numbers in 2005 compared to his rookie year in 2004.

But, I would like to offer another, alternative reason:

Drop in targets. Period.

Here are the numbers:

In 2004, Clayton had 116 of the 253 Tampa WR targets. Of those targets, he caught 80 passes for 1193 yds and 7 TDs. This was a very good rookie year. Also, Galloway and Jurevicius each missed six of the first 7 games. During this time, Clayton had 55 targets in his first 7 games. The surprising part is that the targets did not decrease when Galloway and Jurevicius came back. Clayton still averaged almost two more targets a game than did Galloway after Galloway came back from the injury.

In 2005, Clayton had 55 targets in 13 games. This is out of a total of WR targets of 270. Of those 55 targets, 32 netting 372 yds and 0 TDs. Oddly enough, Jurevicius departed and Galloway received the bulk of the targets. Galloway had 152 of the 270 total WR targets. In addition, Ike Hillard had 54 targets.

Now, let's look at the difference in targets. The targets for Clayton were almost cut in half on a per game basis. This has to play major part in the reduction in fantasy production. Something changes between 2004 and 2005 to flip-flop the targets.

Some possibilities:

a. Injury: Galloway was still nicked up when he first came back in 2004 and his targets rose as he became healthier. In addition, Clayton's injuries could have made him ineffective and less able to get open in 2005 than in 2004.

b. The addition of Caddy Williams in 2005 altered the routes and play-calling, and therefore the targets. In 2004, Pittman was leading rusher with 219 carries for 926 yds. In 2005, Caddy was the leading rusher 290 carries for 1178 yds.

c. Change of QB. In 2004, Griese played in 11 games and averaged 30 attempts a game. In 2005, Simms was the leading QB, playing in 11 games and and attemped 313 passes. Maybe Griese, as a veteran, gained confidence in the rookie (Clayton) and looked for him even after Galloway and Jurevicius came back. Simms, a young QB, looked for the stable, veteran WR (Galloway) often as a safety net, especially with a rookie RB.

d. Record of Tampa Bay. In 2004, the Bucs were 5-11 and 11-5 in 2005. This, in addition to the drafting of Caddy, could change the game plan.

In summary, I think some of the blame for the decrease in Clayton's fantasy production was due to injury. But, there are many other factors at work, too. In trying to define fantasy production for 2006, and beyond, I think we cannot assume that Clayton will automatically resume the position as focal point in the passing game, and thereby getting the largest chunk of the targets.

The targets will tell us in 2006 which year, 2004 or 2005, was the fluke.

The links for this info:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/tam2005.htm

http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-tam-2.php

Way early for this, but if he's healthy, I see 70-1000-8 and emerging back one of the best young WR's in the game. I have cut the numbers due to the presence of Galloway.

Didn't Clayton put up the majority of his numbers when Griese was at the helm? Now that Simms is likely in control, what makes you think he'll get over 150 targets again on a run-first team?

Didn't Clayton put up the majority of his numbers when Griese was at the helm? Now that Simms is likely in control, what makes you think he'll get over 150 targets again on a run-first team?

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Simms averaged 30 attempts per game once he took over as starter. That works out to 480 in a full season. TB had 477 attempts last year and finished 7th in the league. THey may be run first, but they still throw it quite a bit.

How many players have had as successful a rookie season as he, slumped as much in the sophomore year and bounced back?

Off the top of my head, I can't think of one... I'm going to look further into it, but does anyone have anything?

Didn't Clayton put up the majority of his numbers when Griese was at the helm? Now that Simms is likely in control, what makes you think he'll get over 150 targets again on a run-first team?

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Simms averaged 30 attempts per game once he took over as starter. That works out to 480 in a full season. TB had 477 attempts last year and finished 7th in the league. THey may be run first, but they still throw it quite a bit.

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true, but there is a real difference between throwing attempts and targets to clayton. i'll try to get those numbers tonight to see if they back up your point. (i think you're probably right and i'm over-reacting)

Didn't Clayton put up the majority of his numbers when Griese was at the helm? Now that Simms is likely in control, what makes you think he'll get over 150 targets again on a run-first team?

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Simms averaged 30 attempts per game once he took over as starter. That works out to 480 in a full season. TB had 477 attempts last year and finished 7th in the league. THey may be run first, but they still throw it quite a bit.

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true, but there is a real difference between throwing attempts and targets to clayton. i'll try to get those numbers tonight to see if they back up your point. (i think you're probably right and i'm over-reacting)

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the target info is a few posts up

How many players have had as successful a rookie season as he, slumped as much in the sophomore year and bounced back?

Off the top of my head, I can't think of one... I'm going to look further into it, but does anyone have anything?

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Given that only 2-3 guys had rookie seasons on par with Clayton's, the sample size will be wafer thin to begin with.I did find quite the stat line for rookie Bucky Pope in 1964:

25 catches, 786 receiving yards, a 31.44 ypr, 10 TD.

He did not play in 1965, had 1 reception for 14 yards in 1966 (for a TD), and went for 8-152-2 in 1967. He played 3 games with no receptions in 1968.

Talk about your whacky careers . . .

Didn't Clayton put up the majority of his numbers when Griese was at the helm? Now that Simms is likely in control, what makes you think he'll get over 150 targets again on a run-first team?

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Simms averaged 30 attempts per game once he took over as starter. That works out to 480 in a full season. TB had 477 attempts last year and finished 7th in the league. THey may be run first, but they still throw it quite a bit.

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true, but there is a real difference between throwing attempts and targets to clayton. i'll try to get those numbers tonight to see if they back up your point. (i think you're probably right and i'm over-reacting)

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the target info is a few posts up

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thanks, wannabee. that link to FBG targets-per-week is what i needed.there is only 1 data point in 2004 where Simms was QB and Clayton wasn't the only real WR (week 17).

In that week, Simms targeted Clayton 5 times, Galloway 11 times, and Jurevicius 8 times.

Not surprisingly, that trend with Simms at the helm continued in 2005.

Jurevicius has left and Hilliard is probably done, but I'm not seeing why Simms wouldn't continue the trend of preferred target to Galloway. It's unlike a QB to suddenly change preference in terms of where they throw the ball. Galloway is probably runs the routes where Simms checks off first, and it has nothing to do with how open the WRs are.

Unless Simms changes his gameplay, I don't see Clayton playing to these high expectations.

Unless Simms changes his gameplay, I don't see Clayton playing to these high expectations.

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This assumes that:- Galloway continues to play at the level he did last year- Galloway stays healthy all season (often an issue for him)- Defenses don't realize that Simms favors Galloway and make no adjustments- Clayton stays banged up and has trouble getting openMaybe Galloway stays the course and Clayton struggles (I own both guys in various leagues, so it's a wash in my book), but we may not know until well into the season.

Unless Simms changes his gameplay, I don't see Clayton playing to these high expectations.

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This assumes that:- Galloway continues to play at the level he did last year

- Galloway stays healthy all season (often an issue for him)

- Defenses don't realize that Simms favors Galloway and make no adjustments

- Clayton stays banged up and has trouble getting open

Maybe Galloway stays the course and Clayton struggles (I own both guys in various leagues, so it's a wash in my book), but we may not know until well into the season.

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The idea is, I think, that Simms is preferring the WR who runs the routes that Galloway is currently set to run. I doubt Clayton will be used in a completely different set of routes from those he alreadys runs regularly, so even if Galloway is injured his replacement will likely still see more targets than Clayton.The only way I really see any of this changing is if Rattay gets the starting gig over Simms. (In my book, Rattay is better anyway)

Unless Simms changes his gameplay, I don't see Clayton playing to these high expectations.

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This assumes that:- Galloway continues to play at the level he did last year

- Galloway stays healthy all season (often an issue for him)

- Defenses don't realize that Simms favors Galloway and make no adjustments

- Clayton stays banged up and has trouble getting open

Maybe Galloway stays the course and Clayton struggles (I own both guys in various leagues, so it's a wash in my book), but we may not know until well into the season.

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Also, David, I think we minimize the impact the addition of Caddy had on the play-calling. The offense, with a rookie stud RB and a rookie TE, was a different offense in 2005 than it was in 2004. I think there were many factors for Clayton's decrease in targets (and catches).

2006 outlook:

87 receptions, 1117 yards, 13 TDs

Unless Simms changes his gameplay, I don't see Clayton playing to these high expectations.

Click to expand...

This assumes that:- Galloway continues to play at the level he did last year

- Galloway stays healthy all season (often an issue for him)

- Defenses don't realize that Simms favors Galloway and make no adjustments

- Clayton stays banged up and has trouble getting open

Maybe Galloway stays the course and Clayton struggles (I own both guys in various leagues, so it's a wash in my book), but we may not know until well into the season.

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Also, David, I think we minimize the impact the addition of Caddy had on the play-calling. The offense, with a rookie stud RB and a rookie TE, was a different offense in 2005 than it was in 2004. I think there were many factors for Clayton's decrease in targets (and catches).

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Actually, I looked at the wrong numbers. I said TB ranked #7 in attempts, when they ranked #7 in passes defended. They actually ranked 21st in pass attempts in 2005, but that was only down one spot from 2004.As others have mentioned, the Bucs are thin beyond Galloway and Clayton (unless Boston returns to form or someone surprising emerges.

I still think Galloway will have a hard time repeating his 2005 season and that of the other options Clayton is the guy that will be groomed for the future.

As others have mentioned, the Bucs are thin beyond Galloway and Clayton (unless Boston returns to form or someone surprising emerges.I still think Galloway will have a hard time repeating his 2005 season and that of the other options Clayton is the guy that will be groomed for the future.

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Stovall stands an excellent chance of having a decent rookie season, I think - - unless Boston really does have something left. As for Clayton and Galloway, I'm biased in favor of the latter, but it wouldn't surprise me if Clayton saw more balls thrown his way in an effort to even out the passing attack. However, Clayton had all of last season to step up into that role, and defenses had the whole season to figure out how to stop Galloway (with the change in QBs throwing things off a bit, I'm sure), and yet, neither occurred.

Thread Topic: Michael Clayton, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Another One-Year-Wonder?!? Another Flash-in-'Da-Pan?!? HC Jon Gruden doesn't put up with much slack or crap from his players, and he likes speed. Gruden brought in a rookie WR and an aging WR, in 2004. Keyshawn "Southern California" Johnson is back into colder climates, with another midget like Wayne Chrebet; however, Steve Smith won't hesitate at kicking Keyshawn's #### on the field, in a bar, in the street, or even in Keyshawn's own mansion.Gruden = 1; Parcells = 0

Gruden = 1; Keyshawn = -3

Michael Clayton:

Negatives:

Has a strong-but-lean frame and needs to add bulk in order to absorb the punishment he will receive at the next level … Needs to maintain his concentration, as he will focus in and make some great grabs, then relax and drop an easy pass … He will sometimes body-catch when working in traffic, but does show courage across the middle and holds on after contact … Good route runner, but his long legs sometimes makes him gather himself before changing direction.

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AGILITY TESTS

4.52 in the 40-yard dash

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OK...HC Gruden has found a QB that he likes and is willing to work with, and has a young RB that he needed and wanted. Yes, humble me thinks that Gruden is more patient with a QB and even a RB, than he is with a WR or other team positions...so to speak whilst suggesting so what if he brought in another slow rookie WR this year (in the 3rd round)...Maurice Stovall?!?Has anyone tried to time...as in, put a clock onto Joey lately?!? Apparently he is 'Da *SPEED* WR that Gruden wanted, and still is...in my humble opinion.

WR Michael Clayton's Projections for 2006:

First...i am going to skip a lot of fluff and rule stuff, in case no one has noticed yet, and get into what Michael Clayton is actually worth...in both the short and long term.

Second...Until WR Galloway actually slows down...so to speak.

25-30 Receptions = 390 yards

1-3 TD's

Summary:

HC Jon Gruden didn’t bring in just another big and slow WR (in the 3rd round, and cheap at that price) for no reason. i suspect that Gruden sees WR Maurice Stovall as being bigger, stronger, and less injury prone in the NFL than WR Michael Clayton was predicted to be...so to speak of a injury prone WR starting next to his #1 choice for *SPEED*.

Yoda

Charlotte is actually not really any colder than Dallas is during football season.

Also, I don't think Stovall is really that slow, particularly considering his size.

Charlotte is actually not really any colder than Dallas is during football season.

Also, I don't think Stovall is really that slow, particularly considering his size.

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Aerial Assault,Let's first start with some maps, and then find facts. You claim that Charlotte is not any colder than Dallas. The same could be said about Ocala, Florida and Atlanta, Georiga; however, we both know better.

Charlotte is north of South Carolina, and Dallas ain't.

Charlotte ain't even listed on the CIA map, but Dallas is.

What is your point, and why are you wasteing time in this thread?!?

We can agree on Stovall...

Yoda

Charlotte is actually not really any colder than Dallas is during football season.

Also, I don't think Stovall is really that slow, particularly considering his size.

Click to expand...

Aerial Assault,Let's first start with some maps, and then find facts. You claim that Charlotte is not any colder than Dallas. The same could be said about Ocala, Florida and Atlanta, Georiga; however, we both know better.

Charlotte is north of South Carolina, and Dallas ain't.

Charlotte ain't even listed on the CIA map, but Dallas is.

What is your point, and why are you wasteing time in this thread?!?

We can agree on Stovall...

Yoda

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actually, charlotte and dallas have almost identical daily average temperatures during the fall and winter months.

Charlotte is actually not really any colder than Dallas is during football season.

Also, I don't think Stovall is really that slow, particularly considering his size.

Click to expand...

Aerial Assault,Let's first start with some maps, and then find facts. You claim that Charlotte is not any colder than Dallas. The same could be said about Ocala, Florida and Atlanta, Georiga; however, we both know better.

Charlotte is north of South Carolina, and Dallas ain't.

Charlotte ain't even listed on the CIA map, but Dallas is.

What is your point, and why are you wasteing time in this thread?!?

We can agree on Stovall...

Yoda

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actually, charlotte and dallas have almost identical daily average temperatures during the fall and winter months.

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So does Ocala and Atlanta. No real response to me reply or this thread, just some fluff...huff and puff about temps. How boring!!!Yoda

PS. Y'all can have Atlanta (burrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr), i'll stick closer to Ocala.

57/670/6

Charlotte is actually not really any colder than Dallas is during football season. 

Also, I don't think Stovall is really that slow, particularly considering his size.

Click to expand...

Aerial Assault,Let's first start with some maps, and then find facts. You claim that Charlotte is not any colder than Dallas. The same could be said about Ocala, Florida and Atlanta, Georiga; however, we both know better.

Charlotte is north of South Carolina, and Dallas ain't.

Charlotte ain't even listed on the CIA map, but Dallas is.

What is your point, and why are you wasteing time in this thread?!?

We can agree on Stovall...

Yoda

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I'm glad we can agree on Stovall, so that we don't have to consume any energy on the rest of the above, which is either trolling or some serious strangeness. Forgot to add my projections, I believe - - 50/600/5.

i was very high on clayton before & after his rookie season (as david said, he had one of 3-4 best seasons for rookie WR in NFL history)... but i think there have been some material changes around him since then...

at that time he was clear #1 receiving option & probably overall option...

now caddy is focal point of offense, & i think they will throw to him more in the future (how could they not?)...

galloway is clear #1 WR option now... it is true that defenses may shift in his direction... bot OTOH, clayton still commands some attention, so i'm not sure galloway will be constantly double teamed & clayton will be crazy open... galloway will be expected to get the #1 CB, but i think he is still good enough to beat most CBs one on one...

galloway isn't exactly young, but he is still playing at a very high level... i see no need to say he just has one year or even two left... i think it possible he could have more than two years in him... he may have somewhat young legs... he sat out bulk of one season in SEA (last?), and he also got injured early in the season, twice i think, with both DAL & TB, so subtract three seasons of wear & tear there... he was never known for going across the middle, & not just in his prime but still seems to have maintained speed to run away from trouble, as well as open field elusiveness & field awareness to avoid monster shots (like marcus allen did as RB?)... he also seems to keep himself in pretty good shape...

historically, gruden seems to favor vets (caddy would be exception at RB)... when he was OC in philly he used fryar a lot, than tim brown in OAK played well into mid-late thirties...

i haven't heard much mention of TE alex smith, who was a high third last year but easily could have been second round pick... i have heard rumblings that he could be poised for a big season, & coaches have talked about him like they think he can be an elite talent at the position... reading between the lines, they seem to be at least as excited about getting the ball to smith... it wouldn't come as a shock to me at all if smith has as many or even more recptions than clayton... if that were the case, it might make clayton #4 overall option, & #3 receiving, where he had been #1 during his stellar rookie year...

stovall concerns me as well... maybe he is for depth, maybe he will join clayton in starting lineup when galloway is done (but that could be a while - see above)... i might be in minority, but i think stovall is starter quality, & could see time in 3 WR sets... some scouts said he did the most of any senior in the nation to raise his draft stock in 2005... he has deceptive speed, good hops, spectacular hands & surprising elusiveness/RAC skills for a big man (6'4"-6'5" 220 target)... i could see him being a force in red zone, further diffusing clayton's scoring impact...

plus i see them pounding the ball with caddy more in the future, because... they can now, & they couldn't nearly as well in the past...

i'm now bearish on clayton, especially hearing recently for first time that he had suspect professionalism & work ethic... you don't want to get on gruden's bad side (ask keyshawn)...

i see about...

60 receptions

800 yards

5 TDs

not terrible (especially for WR2), but i think those expecting reprise of his historic rookie numbers will be disappointed...

now if the TB offense didn't have caddy, galloway, alex smith (not to mention stovall) & he was clear #1 WR & overall offensive option like in 2004, the numbers would be projected much higher...

* another big concern is that simms is still a young QB & much more prone than a gannon or griese to radar lock onto a favored WR like galloway... the fact that he may not have talent/experience to survey whole field quickly increases liklihood that when he gets pressured he will look for security blanket galloway early & often, potentially marginalizing clayton even further...

** a last factor is the defense didn't do as well in 2004, but got back on track last season... if TB has the lead in the second half, they are more likely to control the clock & salt the game away late with a punishing run game...

Rebound year, but he won't dominate.

70 catches, 970 yds, 6 TDs

I really think he's better than Galloway, and will have the type of season Galloway just did. He's not an elite receiver, but he can put up numbers.

85 for 1241 and 7

MLBrandow said:

2006 outlook:87 receptions, 1117 yards, 13 TDs

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Wanted to revise my prediction after two months of Buccaneer happenings...65/900/6FYI - Clayton - 65 900 6Galloway - 60 800 5Boston - 50 800 7Smith - 45 450 3Cadillac - 35 250 1Pittman - 25 200 1Others - 25 200 1Simms - 305/465 for 3600/24/14IMO Boston eats heavily into Clayton's numbers while pushing Galloway for PT.