David Yudkin
Footballguy
Jon Kitna is the odds on favorite to be the starting QB this year in Detroit by a far margin. His ADP is QB27. FBG staff have him ranked as the QB26. FBG projections have him as QB22.
Now let's look what Mike Martz has done with complete nobides at QB.
TRENT GREEN
An 8th round draft pick, Green played for 6 seasons in the NFL with a grand total of ONE passing attempt. In his first year as a starter in Washington, he ranked as the #7 fantasy QB.
He and Martz wound up in St, Louis, and although he got hurt, he averaged 312 passing yards and 2.5 TD per game in limited time as a starter (6 games). That was a pace for 5,000 yards and 40 TD which seems like an insane total until we look at . . .
KURT WARNER
Warner was an undrafted stock clerk turned arena QB that became a 2-time NFL MVP. His first year starting he had 4300/41 and ranked as the #1 fantasy QB.
MARC BULGER
Bulger was an unheralded 6th round draft pick that took over for Warner mid season and averaged 302 yards and 2.33 TD in his 6 starts as a rookie. In his first full year he ranked as the #6 fantasy QB.
So why would Kitna do any worse than these guys? Fair question. Let's review.
1) The WR corps on Detroit is not what the Rams have had.
This could be true, but Martz hasn't exactly failed in developing WR either. He was around when Isaac Bruce went from 21-272-3 to 119-1781-13. We all know how Holt has done, but we've also seen many 1st round WR that bombed. Overall, the STL WR corps over the years was probably better than the crop in Detroit, but we may find that it is not leaps and bounds better.
2) The OL was better in STL.
That one is hard to prove but likely true. The Rams had resident Pro Bowler Orlando Pace, and the best option in Detroit would be former Pro Bolwer Damien Woody. Again, the Rams OL was likely a fair bit better than Detorit's.
3) The Rams had Marshall Faulk. That's probably the biggest difference between the Rams and Lions. It remains to be seen if Kevin Jones can be a real threat. He's shown some flashes but has not been able to stay healthy and productive at the same time.
4) The Rams defense normally was mediocre.
Well, the Lions D has not exactly been on par with the Bears or Steelers.
5) The Rams on a whole were far better talent and motivational wise.
This one also is likely true, and the question becomes can the Lions show up to want to play. If they do, Kitnas will be a gift for those that draft him.
IMO, Kitna may not be a Top 5 QB but he will rank closer to the Top 5 than the #26QB.
Now let's look what Mike Martz has done with complete nobides at QB.
TRENT GREEN
An 8th round draft pick, Green played for 6 seasons in the NFL with a grand total of ONE passing attempt. In his first year as a starter in Washington, he ranked as the #7 fantasy QB.
He and Martz wound up in St, Louis, and although he got hurt, he averaged 312 passing yards and 2.5 TD per game in limited time as a starter (6 games). That was a pace for 5,000 yards and 40 TD which seems like an insane total until we look at . . .
KURT WARNER
Warner was an undrafted stock clerk turned arena QB that became a 2-time NFL MVP. His first year starting he had 4300/41 and ranked as the #1 fantasy QB.
MARC BULGER
Bulger was an unheralded 6th round draft pick that took over for Warner mid season and averaged 302 yards and 2.33 TD in his 6 starts as a rookie. In his first full year he ranked as the #6 fantasy QB.
So why would Kitna do any worse than these guys? Fair question. Let's review.
1) The WR corps on Detroit is not what the Rams have had.
This could be true, but Martz hasn't exactly failed in developing WR either. He was around when Isaac Bruce went from 21-272-3 to 119-1781-13. We all know how Holt has done, but we've also seen many 1st round WR that bombed. Overall, the STL WR corps over the years was probably better than the crop in Detroit, but we may find that it is not leaps and bounds better.
2) The OL was better in STL.
That one is hard to prove but likely true. The Rams had resident Pro Bowler Orlando Pace, and the best option in Detroit would be former Pro Bolwer Damien Woody. Again, the Rams OL was likely a fair bit better than Detorit's.
3) The Rams had Marshall Faulk. That's probably the biggest difference between the Rams and Lions. It remains to be seen if Kevin Jones can be a real threat. He's shown some flashes but has not been able to stay healthy and productive at the same time.
4) The Rams defense normally was mediocre.
Well, the Lions D has not exactly been on par with the Bears or Steelers.
5) The Rams on a whole were far better talent and motivational wise.
This one also is likely true, and the question becomes can the Lions show up to want to play. If they do, Kitnas will be a gift for those that draft him.
IMO, Kitna may not be a Top 5 QB but he will rank closer to the Top 5 than the #26QB.