Player Spotlight: Deion Branch (1 Viewer)

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Deion Branch, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Deion Branch Player Page

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Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
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For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

I expect the Patriots to spread the ball around a lot this year. My projections:

72 rec - 1000 yds - 6 tds

I expect Brady to rely on Branch more than ever.

83 - 1075 - 7

I think it will be interesting to see how the passing game shakes out in NE in 2006. The addition of Caldwell and Chad Jackson give Brady solid options to replace what NE lost at the WR position. Honestly, I expect the same old Brady... spreading the ball around with cunning efficiency. Branch should be the primary threat for NE, but due to the aformentioned reason, I think his numbers aren't likely to improve much upon what we witnessed last season.

Recs: 75

Rec Yds: 1005

Rec Tds: 6

Assuming he plays the whole season

71/850/5

Watson is going to be Brady's biggest target this season, but the ball is going to be spread to the other WRs/TEs/RBs a LOT as is usual.

My main concern is that Brady had a career year in 2005 and Branch only managed 78-998-5.

How much better will Brady be to get Branch better stats? Can he handle the constant double-team without a viable #2 reciever?

I'll go about the same as last year.

82-1000-7

Branch is the #1 WR on a team that loves to spread the ball around. He is in his last year of contract, and is looking to be resigned getting #1 WR money. Personally I think this will get done, in about the 5 Million a year range (don't see the Pats paying more than that since #1 WR for the Pats do not put up high numbers). Will he take it though is the question.

He has two situations going for him, which should motivate him.

1. He signs up with the Pats and wants to prove he is worth the money

2. He does not sign and wants to prove to the rest of the league he will be worth #1 WR money next year.

Now the Pats did lose WR David Givens, which could increase some of Branch's numbers, but they also added four rookie offensive weapons, three that should be able to be productive when on the field; more targets for Brady to spead it around to (RB Maroney, WR Jackson, TE Thomas). Also many are saying Watson will also be a favorite of Brady, so that could also cut into his numbers. I think Branch is Brady's favorite though....Watson was getting the looks since Branch was not at training camp. Let's hope he does not hold out too long or he just might lose his favorite player status.

Branch avg 13 yards a reception, and 4.5 receptions a game. I don't see this changing that much, but just enough to the 1,000 receiving yard mark for his first time as a Patriot. I think he will get a few more in the redzone than the last few years with Givens gone.

80, 1,040 yds, 7 TDs

| 2004 nwe | 35 454 13.0 4 TDs (9 games only)

| 2005 nwe | 78 998 12.8 5 TDs (16 games)

Deion Branch is one of the most peculiar fantasy players that I have ever seen. I have him in one dynasty league and everytime I try to move him in a deal, it seems like no one values him very high. On the other hand when I try to trade for him in other leagues, no owner will give him up. I think that Deion Branch is a player that only his owners truly value him. He is not a flashy pick but once he is on your roster you can tell just how valuable he is. Last year it seemed like I could count on him more than I could count on Randy Moss. With Branch you can pretty much right in 5 receptions and around 75 yards every week. In a PPR league this is very valuable. Everytime I try to trade him though people mention his limited upside and the fact that the Patriots spread the ball around. Anyways I will take the number 1 receiver on the highest passing team in the league and be comfortable with him as a #2/#3 receiver.

My guesstimation is:

85 receptions 1100 yards 7 touchdowns

I am not a Branch fan (but watch the Pats regularly). But IMO he is in the perfect position to rack up some decent totals (provided he doesn't hold out).

Other than Branch, there's Troy Brown and Reche Caldwell as the only other WR on the team with more than 3 career receptions. Caldwell has a high of 28 receptions in a season and it's been 4 years since Brown had more than 40 receptions, 500 yards, or 4 TD.

Popular opinion seems to think that Ben Watson will be the biggest beneficiary of the inexperienced WR corps, but from what I have seen the Pats are talking about using all 4 of their TE and using mostly 2 TE sets with both as targets. The team has indicated that they have no plans to use Watson at WR, nor do they seem destined to use him as the only TE at any point.

Maybe rookie Chad Jackson will emerge out of the gate, but given the complexity of the New England offense, I find that unlikely.

Add it all up, and I see Branch doing much better than in previous seasons. As I see it, he could be in line for a Troy Brown-like stat line from 2001 (the last time the Patriots had very little WR depth) when Brown went for 100/1200/5.

Pretty much agree with David. Branch is a great target for Brady to depend on. My only reservation that David lacked to mention is the possible improvements in the running game with 2 capable RBs now in town and not just Dillon.

92 rec, 1180 yds, 6 TDs

Pretty much agree with David. Branch is a great target for Brady to depend on. My only reservation that David lacked to mention is the possible improvements in the running game with 2 capable RBs now in town and not just Dillon.

92 rec, 1180 yds, 6 TDs

Click to expand...

I agree, last year the Pats threw all the time for two reasons. First they did not have a reliable running game due to injuries and ineffectiveness. The second is that their secondary was so injured that they gave up more points than usual, and they were forced to open up their offense for shootouts. I don't see them having the same problems this year and I expect that their pass attempts will go down considerably. However the Patriots lack a true number 2 receiver so Brady will be looking for Branch and Watson in key situations.

Deion Branch is one of the most peculiar fantasy players that I have ever seen. I have him in one dynasty league and everytime I try to move him in a deal, it seems like no one values him very high. On the other hand when I try to trade for him in other leagues, no owner will give him up. I think that Deion Branch is a player that only his owners truly value him. He is not a flashy pick but once he is on your roster you can tell just how valuable he is. Last year it seemed like I could count on him more than I could count on Randy Moss. With Branch you can pretty much right in 5 receptions and around 75 yards every week. In a PPR league this is very valuable. Everytime I try to trade him though people mention his limited upside and the fact that the Patriots spread the ball around. Anyways I will take the number 1 receiver on the highest passing team in the league and be comfortable with him as a #2/#3 receiver.

My guesstimation is:

85 receptions 1100 yards 7 touchdowns

Click to expand...

He had 5 or more catches in 11 games last year, but reached 75 yards only 7 times in 16 games. And it's not like he compensates for low yardage games with big yardage games--he has reached 100 yards receiving only 4 times in his 53 career regular season games, and never more than once in a season. Given that he doesn't score many TDs (5 last year), I think he tends to be overrated in non PPR leagues.

Deion Branch caught 78 passes last year and will improve on that number this year. He is the closest thing Brady has to a #1 WR. Great as a WR2 for your fantasy team, however I would not rely on him as your WR1.

Look for 85 receptions, 1145 yards recieving, and 8 TDs.

The Patriots do not rely heavily on their receivers for TDs. In fact none of them has had more than seven in a season since Brady became the QB, and it is not unusual for a TE to end up with the most receiving TDs on the team.

The Patriots are one of the best teams when it comes to attacking the weakness of an opponent. Givens played in 13 games last year and he and Branch both had six games in which they received the most targets with one tied. If the WR2 has a better match up, Brady is not afraid to exploit it.

Branch also had a bad second half to his 2005 season. After producing 45/587/3 in the first eight games, he followed up with 33/411/2 over the second half. His targets dropped from 69 to 56. The Patriots improved from 4-4 in the first half to 6-2 in the second half (including a week 17 loss in a fairly meaningless game). Bruschi will start the season in 2006 and is an important part of the defense. Harrison will be back at some point. I expect the Patriots to have a better year.

Brady enjoyed a career year and went over 4000 passing yards for the first time. With Maroney added to the running game as insurance, and the defense starting the season stronger than last year, I think the Patriots will be forced to pass a lot less.

Branch is only 5' 9" and is not a big target in the end zone. He was only targeted 11 times in the red zone last year. So I don't see why his TD numbers should spike significantly.

Any additional coverage could see Brady look for an easier target (as I mentioned above), and when Branch does make a reception he may see a reduction in yards after the catch due to the extra attention from the defense. That said, I expect Caldwell and Jackson to do better than some think. The TEs will likely get a bigger share than last year though.

Branch is a possible holdout and has only completed one 16 game season, but even if he plays all 16 games I see a decrease in production.

75 rec, 880 yards, 5 TDs.