Player Spotlight: Carson Palmer (1 Viewer)

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Carson Palmer Player Page

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Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
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For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
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Carson Palmer kept me competitive last season and it made me ill for him and Bengals fans when he went down against the Steelers in the playoffs last year. But, that is indeed wheh he was injured. I think that hopes are too high for Palmer coming off the knee surgery. Similar to Culpepper, I hope that Palmer is able to participate in pre-season practices and at least one pre-season game so that his ADP rises enough that I won't be tempted.

I see his numbers dropping even if he manages to play from the get-go.

Palmer 295 completions in 425 attempts for 3388 yards, 22 TDs and 16 Ints. He will add only 20 yards on 12 rushes and no TDs. Every one of his rushes will result in a tongue lashing from Coach Lewis and a sigh of relief from Bengals' fans.

As a rule...I tend to avoid drafting players coming back from major knee surgery. I also tend to avoid drafting QB's early. So, I doubt Mr. Palmer will find his way on my team this year.

That being said, he will still produce solid to good stats...imo.

345 comp

490 att

3700 yards

27 TDs

17 Int's

20 rushes

25 yards rushing

1 TD

In a dynasty league, do not sleep on him. He will be the man for the next decade.

Consistent 25-30 TDs......

The biggest question when evaluating the prospects of Carson Palmer is will he be healthy for the start of the season? If the latest reports are anything to go by, the answer is yes. HC Marv Lewis claims that Palmer is two months ahead of schedule, and that he is now expected to make an appearance in a preseason game.

Palmer made huge strides in 2005, in what was his second season as the starter. This is not uncommon among QBs, but at 26 and with just 29 career starts, there should be a little more improvement left. His supporting cast returns intact and both Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh are good targets.

Three things make me cautious when it comes to Palmer. The injury is an obvious concern, but I also think that it is unlikely that he will throw 30 TDs this season even if he plays all 16 games. Peyton Manning has only managed the feat twice, as has Daunte Culpepper, and I am not ready to place Palmer at that level with such limited data. My final concern is the defensive strength of the AFC North. The Steelers possess a very good pass defense, while Baltimore has most of the personnel that saw their defense dominate in recent years. Ngata should help solidify their run defense and McNair should lift the offense and keep them on the field longer. The Browns have also made considerable upgrades. Games against Tampa Bay, Carolina and Denver will not help Palmer's cause and the Denver game falls in Week 16. One good thing is that one of the Pittsburgh games falls in the final week of the season when most fantasy leagues are already over.

Prediction

350/530 3870 passing yards 26 TDs 15 INTs

28 rushes 35 yards 0 TDs

If he plays in all 16 games I don't see any reason why this team won't be neck and neck with Indy as the best offense in football.

3650 Yards

31 TDs

12 INTs

I think with Palmer it's much more a question of draft strategy than level of performance. In many Spotlights, people will have a fairly wide range of expectations for a given player even if most assume a full 16-game season. But in Palmer's case, based on his play last year, I can imagine many would question his being an elite fantasy option IF he were fully healthy.

How he progresses in training camp is going to help close the gap of uncertainty. If he practices with the team late and his doctors declare him ready to go, obviously someone in just about every league is going to roll the dice on him in the earlier rounds (say QB7-QB10) thinking they may have just drafted QB1-3 for value.

Numbers

3700 yards

28 TDs

15 Int's

I think he comeback very strong next year and solidifies himself as "the other top choice at QB" for FF for years to come.

The offense is solid - almost without weakness anywhere. This team might surprise a lot of people.

I agree that I am reluctant to trade for him in a dynasty league this yr for the only reason of his knee. I do want him for the future and so I sent an offer to the Palmer owner and he responded with Bulger, SSmith, and Roy Williams. Safe to say I wont be getting Palmer, that said I predict him at around..

3800 yrds

29 tds

13 int

personally i don't think we'll see him until after the bye. please don't ask for a link, it's just a gut feeling.

12 games

241/395/2883

19 TDs/13 INTs

20/35 rushing

I think with Palmer it's much more a question of draft strategy than level of performance. In many Spotlights, people will have a fairly wide range of expectations for a given player even if most assume a full 16-game season. But in Palmer's case, based on his play last year, I can imagine many would question his being an elite fantasy option IF he were fully healthy.

How he progresses in training camp is going to help close the gap of uncertainty. If he practices with the team late and his doctors declare him ready to go, obviously someone in just about every league is going to roll the dice on him in the earlier rounds (say QB7-QB10) thinking they may have just drafted QB1-3 for value.

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Jason pretty much nailed IMHO. This situation has alot of similarities to Culpepper. Palmer has had less time to recover, but reports are he is ahead of schedule too and may make opening day. After what he did last year, many people will reach for him if he breaks training camp looking like the day 1 starter. His offense is top notch across the board except TE and all are returning. If the knee injury didn't happen, he would be QB2 in most people's eyes. That being said, I see a dark cloud over Palmer as ACL rehabs typically write off that first year back as many others have seen and he has had less time since the injury happened in a playoff game. I think Palmer will have:3100 yards, 24 TD's, 14 picks, insignificant on the ground.

The real question is where do you draft him? It would take a miracle, IMHO, for him to come back without any complications (physical or mental) and thus I wouldn't be able to trust him as a QB1. As with Culpepper, he could be leveraged to get a similar QB at a much better price if the reports continue to be positive and his ADP takes the resulting push up. I can't see myself being the one to invest a 3rd or 4th rounder in Palmer which is prolly what it will take to get him.

I think the progression that Carson has made in the last two years compares very favorably to Peyton Manning, his situation and surrounding talent in Indy, and hunger for the future.

He's not gaining a lot of sporadic rushing points like CPep, MVick and SMcNair - he's gaining it all by air at a very predictable rate.

I think he duplicates last year numbers.

Hopefully they settle down the 3rd WR (whoever that is) and get a TE that can show productivity in the future.

I've mentioned this in a couple/few other Spotlights for other CIN players, but I feel it is likely that one of the following two things could happen for Palmer in 06: 1) He is rushed back and not quite as productive as what we've come to expect from him -or- 2) He sits out a couple/few games early on. Because I feel that one of these scenarios is likely to come to fruition, my projections for Palmer are a bit lower than some are expecting from him. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Cincy grind out a few games on the ground with Rudi Johnson early on in 2006.

Pass Yds: 3115

Pass TDs: 24

Pass INTs: 15

Rush Yds: 25

Rush TDs: 0

Carson Palmer had one of the best 2nd year (starting) seasons I've ever watched on TV. It really looks like this kid is going to be something special and for once maybe the draft day hype was true.

Rudi Johnson is an excellent young RB that averages 1456 yards when starting. That's not too bad for a 4th round draft pick. Chris Perry, his backup, has proven to be a fine receiving back just dying for an opportunity to start.

Chad Johnson is one of the games top Wide Receivers with his worst season (starting) being 1166 yards. That would qualify as most NFL WRs best season but worst? He's a fine player.

In a recent pre-hall of fame interview Troy Aikman discussed how "the triplets" never won without the other two and how intriguing that was to him. It's hard to put into words but great QB, RB, and WR translates to wins in the NFL. That is something that Carson will get credit for because he was the last to "arrive" and because he's the team leader but all 3 deserve the credit for. Cincy fans have waited a long time to win and it's hard to not feel happy for those long sufferring fans.

The Bungles(well it's still fun to call them that) had a scare when Kimo took Carson out of the game last year. The Bengals have been somewhat coy(as all teams are) with updates on Carson. Some are more positive than others. Some have had Anthony Wright or Doug Johnson taking the snaps the first month of the season while others have Carson in training camp. The be all end all for me is simply the fact that Carson took place in 11 on 11 drills in June's minicamp. (USAToday, Bengals.com, Cincy Enquirer)If he can do that, he's going to do some work in training camp. I expect him out there in week 1. 8 months(to the day) from his surgery, that'll make for a faster than expected recovery but nowhere near as fast as Jerry Rice and Marshall Faulk. It's really not so unreasonable at all.

Carson has played with a knee brace due to a strained MCL that he says has been bugging him for as long as he can remember. Wearing a knee brace while playing is something most players haven't done before when they try to come back from an injury. He understands how restrictive it can be and also how supportive it can be. I think this simple fact confuses people predicting stats for Carson.

(Via google you can find many pics of him playing with a brace. Here's but one. It's hard to make it out but note the outline of the brace along the side of his leg

http://images.sportsnetwork.com/football/n...mer_carson4.jpg plenty more on images at google)

Carson is not exactly a rushing QB having run for just 41 yards last year. The emphasis will be on their line to protect the QB with limitted mobility. The Bengals re-signed their FB Jeremi Johnson to a nice sized deal and Marvin Lewis has discussed how important he is to the team. For me, it's how important he is being the last line of defense when a defensive lineman is coming at Carson. Combine that with Chris Perry's knee surgery in April and I can imagine that early on Marvin may be using Jeremi to protect Carson on 3rd down. Otherwise, it's the Bengals version of "the triplets" and the NFL Ds better watch out.

Last year-

3836 yards 32 TDs 12 INTs 41 yards rushing

This year

4200 yards 30 TDs 14 INT 40 yards rushing

I'm not worried about the knee.

ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli reports

Published Wed Jul 19 2:22:00 p.m. ET 2006

(Rotoworld) ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli reports that "most in the Cincinnati organization believe Palmer will start the season opener."

Impact: It's probably about time to start taking all this unbounded optimism seriously. We will watch closely for a setback in training camp, but Palmer will climb to our No. 2 ranked quarterback if he's ready to play in Week 1.

A QB with only 1 full year starting...who has missed most of the offseason, and won't be fully recovered by the start of the season?

Don't get me wrong, I love Carson as a player, but the situation is horrible.

Per game, I expect 33 att/225 yards/1.5 TDs, with negative rushing yards.

I think its likely we'll see him miss a handful of games, but Ill put out a 16 game projection of: 520 atts, 3600 yards, 24 TDs.

Just an pre- training camp update. It sounds as if Marvin Lewis fully expects Palmer to be ready for the season opener barring any setbacks. The big question now is, how much work will Carson be putting in during training camp and preseason?

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A QB with only 1 full year starting...who has missed most of the offseason, and won't be fully recovered by the start of the season?

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second point, it does seem he'll be ready thoughfirst-well the guy has "lived there" due to physical rehab and other stuff so physically he may not have been involved in as much as normal but unless their coaching staff is horrible he had to learn some spending as much time there tis offseason.

It will be interesting to see if he truly will be ready for the opener... but even if he plays, I think its quite possible he may not have really been 'ready'.

Both Culpepper and Palmer are interesting players to watch going into 06. Oddly, one owner in a league that I am in owns both Palmer and CPepp. Could be boom or bust having both of those guys.

based on his play last year, I can imagine many would question his being an elite fantasy option IF he were fully healthy.

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Health is the ONLY possible reason not to draft him high (for a QB). I admit I was skeptical of him last year and he proved me (along w/many others) wrong in spades, the little beeotch. Anyway only a total moron would expect 30+ TDs again, but people seem to forget this isn't a RB we're talking about, but a QB, and a pocket passer at that. It's not like he tore his throwing arm to shreds.

I hope people get skittish about him in our auction and I land him cheap, but not holding my breath.

Just watched NFL live. Michael Smith said a Cinny coach told him Palmer would be ready week 1 and he would play some in preseason.

4,200 yards, 32 TD's 12 INT's for the best quarterback in the game.

based on his play last year, I can imagine many would question his being an elite fantasy option IF he were fully healthy.

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Health is the ONLY possible reason not to draft him high (for a QB). I admit I was skeptical of him last year and he proved me (along w/many others) wrong in spades, the little beeotch. Anyway only a total moron would expect 30+ TDs again, but people seem to forget this isn't a RB we're talking about, but a QB, and a pocket passer at that. It's not like he tore his throwing arm to shreds.

I hope people get skittish about him in our auction and I land him cheap, but not holding my breath.

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pretty confident that's a typo by Jason, "I can't imagine" is a common phrase and all

A QB with only 1 full year starting...who has missed most of the offseason, and won't be fully recovered by the start of the season?

Don't get me wrong, I love Carson as a player, but the situation is horrible.

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Maybe I read that wrong, but Palmer has started somewhere in the vicinity of 30ish games the last two seasons, and he's been #1 on the depth chart for the past 2 years. And while he's missed a good portion of off-season workouts, he has been reported as participating in 7-on-7 drills, so it's not as if he's Rex Grossman out there.

Anyway, I think it's likely that the Cincinnati offense will take a hit with Chris Henry being presumably gone and the status of Palmer's knee still being questionable. They also have a brutal schedule this season, so I'll put Palmer down for 25 TDs to 12 INTs and 3,500 yards, which is still very good and worthy of top-5 QB status. The defense has also been improved during the offseason, and I think that might lend itself to the Bengals controlling the clock more, especially with Chris Perry healthy. Although I have to disagree with your last point- with that offensive line and supporting cast, Palmer's situation is still easily better than 75% of the other quarterbacks in the league, despite the knee.

I have been a rollercoaster of opinion on Palmer. Coming out of college I thought he was vastly overrated. Watching the few games he started two years ago made me a believer and I rode him to a championship last year. For me the question is not how well he does this year, but can he stay healthy for a whole season? The big point many are missing is that he has ended both of his last two years with injuries. That is cause for concern for me. Is it the way he plays, his build that leads to such injuries or just bad luck? Time will tell. As for this year, if he plays I think he could do very well as his knee injury doesn't mean as much for a dropback QB as it would for a slashing RB. Still, don't be surprised if he doesn't last the year.

As for this year, if he plays I think he could do very well as his knee injury doesn't mean as much for a dropback QB as it would for a slashing RB. Still, don't be surprised if he doesn't last the year.

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I don't agree with this part, the splitting hairs part.Slasher or drop back QB, the most important part of their game is their footwork of dropping back to pass+throwing the ball right? Well knee injury would affect them the same. Planting and twisting is very hard on a bum knee. Running straight is "easy"

Bengals | Palmer like team's new scramble drill

Published Wed Aug 9 1:51:00 a.m. ET 2006

(KFFL) Geoff Hobson, of Bengals.com, reports Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer (knee) likes the new scramble drill the coaches have added to training camp. Palmer noted that 40 percent of passes come out of the pocket and that many times touchdowns are produced throwing on the run.

Bengals | Palmer still needs to improve on transferring weight to his front leg

Published Wed Aug 9 1:52:00 a.m. ET 2006

(KFFL) Geoff Hobson, of Bengals.com, reports Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer (knee) still needs to work on transferring weight from his back leg to his front leg. Palmer said, "I can run all day. That's not the issue. The issue is when I throw, it puts the weight on the leg. When you can withstand that, you're 100 percent. I'm not there yet. I'm still doing a couple of things wrong. I'm still not doing a couple of things the way I used to do them. But I've still got time to get there."

matt jones said:

4,200 yards, 32 TD's 12 INT's for the best quarterback in the game.

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I actually like him for 35TD and #1.

Conjecture:

Palmer unlikely to start in Week 1

Published Thu Aug 10 2:31:00 p.m. ET 2006

(Rotoworld) The Cincinnati Enquirer believes there is a 50-50 chance Carson Palmer will start in Week 1.

Impact: After giving those odds, the Enquirer beat writer Mark Curnette says his gut feeling is that the Bengals won't risk Palmer's health for such an early return. Amid all the wildly optimistic predictions about Palmer, it's interesting that the most skeptical view comes from a writer that watches him every day.

Predicted

350/530 3870 passing yards 26 TDs 15 INTs

28 rushes 35 yards 0 TDs

Actual

324/520 4035 passing yards 28 TDs 13 INTs

26 carries 37 yards 0 TDs

I am very happy with this prediction. Palmer struggled a little during the early part of the season, but he played every game and slightly exceeded my high expectations. It's not easy to perform well when four games come against the Ravens and the Steelers.

Musesboy said:

The biggest question when evaluating the prospects of Carson Palmer is will he be healthy for the start of the season? If the latest reports are anything to go by, the answer is yes. HC Marv Lewis claims that Palmer is two months ahead of schedule, and that he is now expected to make an appearance in a preseason game.

Palmer made huge strides in 2005, in what was his second season as the starter. This is not uncommon among QBs, but at 26 and with just 29 career starts, there should be a little more improvement left. His supporting cast returns intact and both Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh are good targets.

Three things make me cautious when it comes to Palmer. The injury is an obvious concern, but I also think that it is unlikely that he will throw 30 TDs this season even if he plays all 16 games. Peyton Manning has only managed the feat twice, as has Daunte Culpepper, and I am not ready to place Palmer at that level with such limited data. My final concern is the defensive strength of the AFC North. The Steelers possess a very good pass defense, while Baltimore has most of the personnel that saw their defense dominate in recent years. Ngata should help solidify their run defense and McNair should lift the offense and keep them on the field longer. The Browns have also made considerable upgrades. Games against Tampa Bay, Carolina and Denver will not help Palmer's cause and the Denver game falls in Week 16. One good thing is that one of the Pittsburgh games falls in the final week of the season when most fantasy leagues are already over.

Prediction

350/530 3870 passing yards 26 TDs 15 INTs

28 rushes 35 yards 0 TDs

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