Player Spotlight: Fred Taylor & Company (1 Viewer)

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Fred Taylor & Greg Jones & Company, RBs, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Fred Taylor Player Page

Player Page Link: Greg Jones Player Page

Player Page Link: Maurice Drew Player Page

Player Page Link: Alvin Pearman Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Fred Taylor & Greg Jones & Company, RBs, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Fred Taylor Player Page

Player Page Link: Greg Jones Player Page

Player Page Link: Maurice Drew Player Page

Player Page Link: Alvin Pearman Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

Click to expand...

Fred is still going in the 4th round in most drafts I've seen. This is a little too risky for my tastes.Jacksonville is getting younger. I don't expect to see much from Fred this year.

The Jacksonville running game is even more muddled than ever this year. Fred Taylor has the reputation of being one of the most unreliable players available in fantasy drafts due to his injury history. The fact remains that Taylor has finished as the leading rusher for the Jaguars on six occasions since he joined the team eight seasons ago. He has run for 1200 yards, and reached 1500 combined yards five times during that span. His TD numbers have dropped since his early years, and he now averages around one every three games, possibly in an effort to keep him healthy.

Latest reports claim that Taylor is in the shape of his life. He has added six pounds to last year's playing weight, and is now at 227 while retaining his burst. If all that is true, Taylor should still have something left to offer. He is 30 years old and could have one big season left in him.

Taylor is currently being drafted at the end of the fifth round in 12 team leagues. That would represent excellent value if he starts ten games or more, and he has started 57 of the last 64. It is fashionable to knock a player when he is down, and if repeated often enough, it is easy to start to believe it as fact. That tendency is something you can use to your advantage this year by drafting Taylor as your third back. He should easily outperform his RB30 ADP.

The Jaguars have lost Jimmy Smith; their leading receiver since 1996. I would not be surprised if the team relies more on the running game. Maurice Drew was drafted in the second round, while Greg Jones has filled in when required in the past. I expect the Jaguars to continue with Taylor as the featured back for as long as his body can take it. Drew will probably see very little action, and Jones will possibly see some goal line and short yardage action, resulting in less yards per carry. Toefield isn't certain to be active every week but could see some third down work when he is. Pearman has no value at this point.

Prediction

Taylor

275 carries 1150 yards 5 TDs

20 receptions 140 yards 0 TDs

Jones

70 carries 210 yards 4 TDs

8 receptions 50 yards 0 TDs

The other three backs are not even guaranteed to be active each week and are certainly not worth drafting. They would only have value if Taylor were hurt.

Taylor - 175/732/3, 19/136/0

Jones - 131/547/6, 11/97/0

Pearman - 30/116/0, 25/223/1

Drew - 45/182/2, 7/50/0

Toefield - 31/122/1, 11/95/0

could change a ton after training camp, but right now a fantasy wasteland.

I swore I'd never get or draft Taylor, ever again. I was wrong, again. In a dynasty league, I traded 1.15 and 3.15 for him (and a fifth round rookie draft pick), after reading the reports about how he has burst back in his bubble. I needed another RB to go with Chester Taylor and Jamal Lewis (16 team league). I'm a sucker, once again. Since I can start 3 RB's, I decided to try to make a run this year.

Will Fragile burn me again? On a pure hunch, I think he could have a near-career year. The mini camp reports sucked me in this time. I don't expect much TD production, but I have this hunch he could rush for 1500 this year. Well, I've been wrong before, and I'll be wrong again....

The Jacksonville offense is literally a toss up this off-season. Last season Fred Taylor missed a number of games and Greg Jones filled in admirably. This year Fred returns in great shape, but the Jags added Maurice Drew. There appears to be doubt as to who will be the starter.

Jimmy Smith retired, but they have three nice WRs to compete and provide depth.

The team has drafted WRs in early rounds recently and with their young quarterback, fantasy enthusiasts sense an increase in the passing numbers, at the expense of the running game.

Add in the week six bye which with other questions lowers the appeared value. Fred Taylor is currently FBGs 30th RB with an ADP of 59. I think that he could be an awesome value this season. Jacksonville could favor the running game even more this season as their offensive line has been bolstered with a nice run blocker and their receivers are all young. They tend to stick with one guy between the twenties and I think that Fred Taylor will remain the guy. I see Greg Jones returning to fullback, but still getting goal line love. Drew and Pearman will likely spell Fred for third downs, but that will keep him fresh and minimize injury risk.

Fred Taylor 260 carries for 1144 yds & 5 TDs, with 20 catches for 140 yds & 1 TD.

Greg Jones 80 carries for 301 yds & 6 TDs, with 10 catches for 60 yds & 0 TD.

Pearman 30 carries for 130 yds & 0 TDs, with 30 catches for 210 yds & 0 TD.

Drew 10 carries for 61 yds & 1 TD, with 7 catches for 67 yds & 0 TD.

It's basically a crap shoot at this point whether or not there is going to be a RBBC situation there. I'm leaning towards no. However, I alway fear the injury with Fred. He's stung me many times.

I think another thing that needs to be mentioned here is the acquisition of Mike Williams on the right side of the line. This guy is a pretty darn good run blocker according to Terry Donahoe. If Mike brings competition and really commits himself, we could see a pretty darn dominant rushing team here. Throw in the fact that Leftwich won't steal many carries and the team is green at receiver and this team could be setting up for a strong rushing season. Assuming Fred stays healthy

Fred Taylor:

290 carries

1250 yards

5 touchdowns

24 receptions

140 yards

I'm as biased as a Gator and Freddy dynasty owner can get but I think he's got every bit the size, speed, talent and team to be a top 10 RB - durability and frequency is what's going to hold him back (brought to you by the master of the obvious)

I think he'll get 23 carries a game while healthy which indicates to me a pretty good RB3. I have no faith in a team that keeps 5 RBs (if they do) and I don't think any of the other RBs have nearly the talent as FTaylor does.

I foresee a Tiki-like renaissance with a 90% healthy season:

320 carries for 1350 yards, 8 TDs

30 catches for 350 yards, 1 TD

RB ranking at the end of the season: 12

I'm as biased as a Gator and Freddy dynasty owner can get but I think he's got every bit the size, speed, talent and team to be a top 10 RB - durability and frequency is what's going to hold him back (brought to you by the master of the obvious)

I think he'll get 23 carries a game while healthy which indicates to me a pretty good RB3. I have no faith in a team that keeps 5 RBs (if they do) and I don't think any of the other RBs have nearly the talent as FTaylor does.

I foresee a Tiki-like renaissance with a 90% healthy season:

320 carries for 1350 yards, 8 TDs

30 catches for 350 yards, 1 TD

RB ranking at the end of the season: 12

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Hate to be the one to break it, but No. Not gonna happen. Fred taylor had only carried the rock 300+ times ONCE in his career, in 2003 with a huge chunk comming during the Jimmy Smith suspension, when there was no other viable offensive option. I think youve nailed the YPC, but the TD's simply wont be there. He's not going to be used in short yardage situations and even still 8 is beyond his realm at this point. Unless he still has it in him to break off TD runs from within the 20's, I'm not even sure 4 or 5 is a possibility. Hell, he didnt even get 8 TD runs in his 345 carry season. My take:

The facts speak for themselves. Fred Taylor sports a career YPC of 4.6 and averages about 87 YPG. In comparison, both Shaun Alexander and Priest Holmes sport lower averages in both categories. The reasoning here is simple, Taylor isnt an everydown back and will not play short-yardage situations (while the others' YPC is deflated because they are everydown backs)- but inside the 20's, he's one of the best in the league.

Theres a variety of reasons to be optimistic about Taylor.

1.) He's reportedly lighter and 'in the best shape of his life. You dont have to buy that however, in order to be bullish but it certainly fortifies the idea.

2.) His injury history isnt what it seems. Aside from last year's bonehead decision to rush back early, the only time since 2001 that he's been injured was for two games in 2004 when he nailed his knee on the tundra of Green Bay. Prior to that, he was healthy for a full two seasons. Sure he is older but to be honest, I'm not so sure he poses a major health risk. I forsee him playing almost every game. The influx of talent behind him will cut into his numbers sure but will also invariably keep him healthy.

3.) He's a damn good yardage back. He was projected to carry the ball 286 times last season had he stayed healthy, and while those numbers are far-fetched this season, 225 carries are certainly not and he has a shot at putting up close to 1000 yards with that amount. Sure the TD's wont be there but in yardage heavy leagues, he has exceptional later-round value.

4.) While the O-line left much to be desired last season, the Jaguars picked up quite a bit of quality depth. While Mike Williams was the most talked about, he came into the OTA's overweight and was not impressive--Jack Del Rio commented that he isnt even in the mix to make the roster unless changes occur. But Stockar McDougle and Wayne Hunter have reportedly been impressive and perhaps may have some time with the first unit. I do think that in the end, Mike Williams is just a victim of 'motivational speak' and is playing better than what is reported. Nonetheless, he is 375+ and needs to get his weight down. Note that he has been playing with the first team. The Jaguars will also get the remainder of their starters back from injury (3/5 were injured for the playoffs) and Kalif Barnes has certainly impressed and will make strides this season. I think this unit is better than what they are given credit for. If anything, the jags will be able to field the best unit instead of the only unit (a la last year)

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Further Notes:

JDR has commented that he will keep 5 RB's on the roster at this point. That gives us Fred Taylor, Greg Jones, Maurice Drew, and two spots between Wimbush, Toefield and Pearman. My guess is that they keep Wimbush for his ST skills and so the last spot goes to either Toefield or Pearman. My gut tells me Pearman but reports are that Toe is looking exceptional in camp. My guess is that they plan to feature him in preseason to determine (inflate) his potential trade value. Then again, Maurice Drew is, simply put, a better version of Pearman as he does all the same things but better. It would seem redundant to keep both. But JDR loves his utility men.

Projections:

Fred Taylor: 235 carries, 1015 yards, 4 TD's

Greg Jones: 115 carries, 475 yards, 6 TD's

Maurice Drew: 54 carries, 180 yards, 3 TD's

Alvin Pearman: 30 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD's

Toefield: Traded

TOTALS: 444 carries, 1785 yards and 14 TD's

Part of me really wants to get on board with positive vibes for Taylor... especially after hearing he is great shape, has slimmed down, and looks to have his burst back (gotta love the pre-season). However, I am at least a bit skeptical. That said; I really don't feel any other JAX RBs (Greg Jones and Maurice Drew included) will take over the role as primary RB in 2006.

Rush Yds: 925

Rush TDs: 5

Recs: 17

Rec Yds: 120

Rec TDs: 0

Part of me really wants to get on board with positive vibes for Taylor... especially after hearing he is great shape, has slimmed down, and looks to have his burst back (gotta love the pre-season). However, I am at least a bit skeptical. That said; I really don't feel any other JAX RBs (Greg Jones and Maurice Drew included) will take over the role as primary RB in 2006.

Rush Yds: 925

Rush TDs: 5

Recs: 17

Rec Yds: 120

Rec TDs: 0

Click to expand...

Seems to me that youre not all that down on your projections. Taylor is primarily a yardage back, has been and will become more evident this year. While I do think you low-balled the yardage somewhat, putting him in line for 215 carries @ 4.3 YPC, i think you are pretty darn close. As for TD's, youve slotted him at the higher end of projections, again by a small margin. So in all actuality, you share our optimism. Its just that Taylor wont have that great of a statistical season.

Part of me really wants to get on board with positive vibes for Taylor... especially after hearing he is great shape, has slimmed down, and looks to have his burst back (gotta love the pre-season). However, I am at least a bit skeptical. That said; I really don't feel any other JAX RBs (Greg Jones and Maurice Drew included) will take over the role as primary RB in 2006.

Rush Yds: 925

Rush TDs: 5

Recs: 17

Rec Yds: 120

Rec TDs: 0

Click to expand...

Seems to me that youre not all that down on your projections. Taylor is primarily a yardage back, has been and will become more evident this year. While I do think you low-balled the yardage somewhat, putting him in line for 215 carries @ 4.3 YPC, i think you are pretty darn close. As for TD's, youve slotted him at the higher end of projections, again by a small margin. So in all actuality, you share our optimism. Its just that Taylor wont have that great of a statistical season.

Click to expand...

Seems quite a few have him for 1300+ total yds and at least 5 TDs (definitely a bounce back season)... whereas I have him for 1050 and 5. I'm not saying I think he'll stink it up... I'm just not totally sold that we could see him going for 1400 total yds and 6 tds... even though I do like what I'm hearing about Fred thus far this preseason. So maybe I'm cautiously optimistic... haha.

Looks to be available in the 7th round in one of my drafts.

Where I sit Fred Taylor and/or Greg Jones should benefit from the league’s easiest schedules in the second half. Matchups against the Texans, Bills, Colts, Titans, and Chiefs should each be strong ones for either back. The key for Taylor, of course, is staying of the injury report. Fred has trained hard this off-season and is reportedly in the best shape of his career. The acquisitions on the O-Line will help. The retirement of Jimmy Smith will have the Jags leaning on the running game. Jones will have a role as the goal-line and primary backup to Taylor. Greg held his own when pressed into duty last year and was impressive at times. It looks like Rookie Drew will battle Pearman for the 3rd down role. Toefield looks to be the odd man out.

Fred Taylor projects to be a borderline RB 2 in 14 team leagues. He looks to be a great flex player for leagues that go a little deeper. Greg Jones is a nice handcuff/speculation selection. He also would be serviceable bye week/injury fill-in player on the strength of his goal-line carries.

The greatest RB in NFL history, Jim Brown, stated on the NFL Network on July 21, 2006, that Fred Taylor is the best RB in the NFL!

Projections:

F Taylor 200 carries 995 yards 6 Tds 20 receptions 121 yards 0 Tds

G Jones 125 carries 505 yards 6 Tds 10 receptions 50 yards 0 Tds

M Drew 40 carries 165 yards 1 Td 35 receptions 240 yards 2 Tds

A Pearman 30 carries 140 yards 1 Td 10 receptions 90 yards 1 Td

L Toefield 30 carries 100 yards 1 Td 2 receptions 10 yards 0 Tds

Predicted

Taylor

275 carries 1150 yards 5 TDs

20 receptions 140 yards 0 TDs

Jones

70 carries 210 yards 4 TDs

8 receptions 50 yards 0 TDs

Actual

Taylor

231 carries 1146 yards 5 TDs

23 receptions 242 yards 1 TD

This one is embarrassing. I got the Fred Taylor prediction right, but Greg Jones was placed on IR and Maurice Jones-Drew came in and performed brilliantly in a RBBC. I am not sure that anyone saw that coming, so I won't be too hard on myself.

Musesboy said:

The Jacksonville running game is even more muddled than ever this year. Fred Taylor has the reputation of being one of the most unreliable players available in fantasy drafts due to his injury history. The fact remains that Taylor has finished as the leading rusher for the Jaguars on six occasions since he joined the team eight seasons ago. He has run for 1200 yards, and reached 1500 combined yards five times during that span. His TD numbers have dropped since his early years, and he now averages around one every three games, possibly in an effort to keep him healthy.

Latest reports claim that Taylor is in the shape of his life. He has added six pounds to last year's playing weight, and is now at 227 while retaining his burst. If all that is true, Taylor should still have something left to offer. He is 30 years old and could have one big season left in him.

Taylor is currently being drafted at the end of the fifth round in 12 team leagues. That would represent excellent value if he starts ten games or more, and he has started 57 of the last 64. It is fashionable to knock a player when he is down, and if repeated often enough, it is easy to start to believe it as fact. That tendency is something you can use to your advantage this year by drafting Taylor as your third back. He should easily outperform his RB30 ADP.

The Jaguars have lost Jimmy Smith; their leading receiver since 1996. I would not be surprised if the team relies more on the running game. Maurice Drew was drafted in the second round, while Greg Jones has filled in when required in the past. I expect the Jaguars to continue with Taylor as the featured back for as long as his body can take it. Drew will probably see very little action, and Jones will possibly see some goal line and short yardage action, resulting in less yards per carry. Toefield isn't certain to be active every week but could see some third down work when he is. Pearman has no value at this point.

Prediction

Taylor

275 carries 1150 yards 5 TDs

20 receptions 140 yards 0 TDs

Jones

70 carries 210 yards 4 TDs

8 receptions 50 yards 0 TDs

The other three backs are not even guaranteed to be active each week and are certainly not worth drafting. They would only have value if Taylor were hurt.

Click to expand...

My projections for Taylor were a bit catious, imo, and not that great. Really what threw me were his rec numbers.

nshelat1 said:

Projections:

Fred Taylor: 235 carries, 1015 yards, 4 TD's

Greg Jones: 115 carries, 475 yards, 6 TD's

Maurice Drew: 54 carries, 180 yards, 3 TD's

Alvin Pearman: 30 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD's

Toefield: Traded

TOTALS: 444 carries, 1785 yards and 14 TD's

Click to expand...

Well, its true musesboy, none of us could have seen the evolution of MJD this quickly. But we were pretty close in terms of grading out fred taylor. He turned out to be great value for me. Kudos to you as well for the close prediction.

big question is what happens to mdj when greg jones comes back???

hmmmmmmmmmm??!?!?!?!?!?!?

bigupsetter said:

big question is what happens to mdj when greg jones comes back???hmmmmmmmmmm??!?!?!?!?!?!?

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I think Jones will be a backup to MJD, and the team parts ways with Fred.

Sabertooth said:

bigupsetter said:

big question is what happens to mdj when greg jones comes back???hmmmmmmmmmm??!?!?!?!?!?!?

Click to expand...

I think Jones will be a backup to MJD, and the team parts ways with Fred.

Click to expand...

Greg Jones will remain what he was before, the starting fullback. And I'd be shocked if the Jags and Fred Taylor parted ways this off season. Sorry if it doesn't work out for fantasy football, but in the real NFL the Jags had well over 2,000 yards rushing last season with a committee and I doubt they are interested in changing anything. If it ain't broke....

rzrback77 said:

The Jacksonville offense is literally a toss up this off-season. Last season Fred Taylor missed a number of games and Greg Jones filled in admirably. This year Fred returns in great shape, but the Jags added Maurice Drew. There appears to be doubt as to who will be the starter.

Jimmy Smith retired, but they have three nice WRs to compete and provide depth.

The team has drafted WRs in early rounds recently and with their young quarterback, fantasy enthusiasts sense an increase in the passing numbers, at the expense of the running game.

Add in the week six bye which with other questions lowers the appeared value. Fred Taylor is currently FBGs 30th RB with an ADP of 59. I think that he could be an awesome value this season. Jacksonville could favor the running game even more this season as their offensive line has been bolstered with a nice run blocker and their receivers are all young. They tend to stick with one guy between the twenties and I think that Fred Taylor will remain the guy. I see Greg Jones returning to fullback, but still getting goal line love. Drew and Pearman will likely spell Fred for third downs, but that will keep him fresh and minimize injury risk.

Fred Taylor 260 carries for 1144 yds & 5 TDs, with 20 catches for 140 yds & 1 TD.

Greg Jones 80 carries for 301 yds & 6 TDs, with 10 catches for 60 yds & 0 TD.

Pearman 30 carries for 130 yds & 0 TDs, with 30 catches for 210 yds & 0 TD.

Drew 10 carries for 61 yds & 1 TD, with 7 catches for 67 yds & 0 TD.

Click to expand...

Taylor Actual231 carries 1146 yards 5 TDs Missed by two yards and dead on TDs

23 receptions 242 yards 1 TD Missed by three catches and 102 yards and dead on TDs

Only problem was that the Jacksonville WR youth and QB injuries led them to further dependance on the running game which MJ Drew's spectacular rookie season allowed. I wish that I had've predicted MJD with the accuracy of Taylor.