Player Spotlight: Rudi Johnson (1 Viewer)

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Rudi Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

Rudi is kind of like the hedgehog of the animal kingdom. While quicker, sexier, and more stylish animals speed by in spectacular array, Rudi just keeps rumbling and bumbling to fantasy success. His value may be somewhat compromised in PPR leagues due to his modest participation in the passing game, but his physical durability, his nose for the endzone, and his consistent production make him a clear top ten RB. Also, the Bengels have demonstrated that Chris Perry can be used meaningfully without diminishing Rudi's touches, something that cannot be said for the backups of many feature RB's. Finally, with Palmer wavering early in the season, the Bengels will look to Rudi more than ever.

375/1550/15

26 receptions for 150 yards and 1 TD

He reminds me a bit too much of Travis Henry in running style, but he has a much better attitude and seems to be tougher. He should be solid this year, but is a tad overrated based on projections i've seen.

310 carries

1240 Yards rushing

8 TD's

12 receptions for 60 yards and 0 TD's

Solid #2

Projection: 325 touches 1375 yards 12 TD's 20 rec 156 yards 1 TD

Let's not forget that great O-Line he's got workin' for him. Along with DEN & KC, they're among the best at what they do.

Rudi is like a metronome. Chris Perry will continue to be used as a receiving back as long as Johnson continues his tough running, and the Bengals have the O-line for him to succeed. As Palmer appears to be in line to go week 1, I see little to no change in his circumstances. He seems an easy guy to project. In PPR leagues, or leagues that reward receiving yardage heavily, he doesn't have the upside of a Westbrook or Lamont Jordan. However, in a TD-heavy league, he's about as safe a pick as it gets, and should be gone in the first 8-9 selections.

318 carries 1,355 yards 12 TD - 14 catches for 78 yards 0 TD.

Rudi johnson is this season's version of tiki barber in that he's a stud rb who a lot of ppl overlook when thinking about who the stud rbs are. He's rushed for over 1,450 yards and 12 TDs each of the last two seasons and it doesn't get much better than that. Some ff owners are concerned about the presence of perry in the backfield but between perry's tendency to get hurt and rudi having his best year last season despite perry getting 112 touches I'm not

350 carries for 1,470 yards and 13 TDs, 20 catches for 80 yards and 0 TDs

I think Rudi will have a very good year. I have him ranked 7th in my redraft RB rankings

I think he is a solid #1 and great #2 RB

He has put up pretty consistent numbers the last 3 years

Rushing 330/1400/13 Rec. 25/125/1

I think Rudi will have a very good year. I have him ranked 7th in my redraft RB rankings

I think he is a solid #1 and great #2 RB

He has put up pretty consistent numbers the last 3 years

Rushing 330/1400/13 Rec. 25/125/1

Click to expand...

One thing I do not understand is why people say he is a great I like your predictions, but I do not understand this statement. Has anyone seen Rudi Johnson fall in the 2nd round (non PPR leagues).

I think over 1500 yards is pretty darn good and numbers I would be pleased with outside the top 3-4 picks.

I will go with 1500+ rushing yards and 13 TD's. With 110 yards receiving 0 TD's.

RAPTURE

I think Rudi will have a very good year. I have him ranked 7th in my redraft RB rankings

I think he is a solid #1 and great #2 RB

He has put up pretty consistent numbers the last 3 years

Rushing 330/1400/13 Rec. 25/125/1

Click to expand...

One thing I do not understand is why people say he is a great I like your predictions, but I do not understand this statement. Has anyone seen Rudi Johnson fall in the 2nd round (non PPR leagues).

I think over 1500 yards is pretty darn good and numbers I would be pleased with outside the top 3-4 picks.

I will go with 1500+ rushing yards and 13 TD's. With 110 yards receiving 0 TD's.

RAPTURE

Click to expand...

Maybe I was not clear. It would be great to have him as my second RB but he is a solid top 10 RBI would put him in my second Tier of RB's

Rudi Johnson isn't the most exciting pick in the first round, but he is one of the safest. He has posted two straight seasons over 1400 yards, and scored 12 times in each of them. He also did well when Corey Dillon was hurt in 2003. He has recently revealed that he injured his knee in Week 2 last year, but played through the injury for the remainder of the season. Rather than showing signs of wearing down, Johnson significantly increased his production over the second half of the season. The last eight games saw him carry 175 times for 777 yards and 10 TDs.

Johnson has reportedly slimmed down this summer and is currently 218 pounds. He has been working on his conditioning and endurance in case he is required to carry more of the load than usual due to the uncertain status of QB Carson Palmer. Johnson has also had cartilage repaired in the injured knee, and is now back to full strength.

Some will worry about the presence of Chris Perry, but I consider it a bonus. Johnson is not a receiving threat and Perry will see most of the action on third down. If something does happen to Johnson, Perry looks to be an above average backup that can be had relatively cheaply as a handcuff. Perry is currently being drafted in the tenth round in 12 team leagues.

Johnson seems to take his role very seriously and it is encouraging to see that he is doing extra work to be ready if the team needs him to increase his carries this season.

Players that are being drafted ahead of him have many more question marks. Edgerrin James will be on a new team. Steven Jackson has yet to prove that he can be truly effective for an entire season. Carnell Williams will also lose third down touches and is not sure to get the bulk of the goal line carries with Alstott still there. Ronnie Brown is being asked to carry the full load for the first time. LaMont Jordan has one good season to his name and he barely reached 1000 yards. Some or all of those players may finish ahead of Johnson, but I would draft him ahead of all of them because he has shown that he can handle 330-360 carries over each of the last two seasons. The Bengals are a good offensive team and I expect Palmer to be ready for Week 1.

Prediction

360 carries 1580 yards 15 TDs

18 receptions 90 yards 0 TDs

Johnson's past two years are spookily similar: four yards different in rushing, six yards different in receiving, same number of TDs. That makes it hard to predict anything much different than 1456 yards rushing and 86 yards receiving with 12 TDs, but I'm not going to do that.

I actually am going to give Rudi a slight downgrade due to the situation with Carson Palmer. I believe at this point that Palmer will come back for game one, but I don't believe he will be at 100%, and the offense will start the season out of sync. After ranking in the top 10 in scoring the past two years, the Bengals will dip into the middle of the pack, and that will affect Johnson's TD numbers. His lack of receiving hurts his ability to pile up combined yardage, so I predict he will wind up as a marginal RB1 this year.

325 rushes, 1300 yards, 9 TD, 20 receptions, 90 yards. Good for approxiamtely RB#10.

Johnson's past two years are spookily similar: four yards different in rushing, six yards different in receiving, same number of TDs. That makes it hard to predict anything much different than 1456 yards rushing and 86 yards receiving with 12 TDs, but I'm not going to do that.

I actually am going to give Rudi a slight downgrade due to the situation with Carson Palmer. I believe at this point that Palmer will come back for game one, but I don't believe he will be at 100%, and the offense will start the season out of sync. After ranking in the top 10 in scoring the past two years, the Bengals will dip into the middle of the pack, and that will affect Johnson's TD numbers. His lack of receiving hurts his ability to pile up combined yardage, so I predict he will wind up as a marginal starter this year.

325 rushes, 1300 yards, 9 TD, 20 receptions, 90 yards. Good for approxiamtely RB#10.

Click to expand...

How can RB #10 be a marginal starter? Very few leagues have less than 2 RBs so even an 8-team league requires 16 starting RBs?

Rudi Johnson has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, if not the best. The Bengals line also has depth and is doubtful to be upended by injury. He is very good at what he does, which is run consistently for positive yards and first downs. He is also a very good goal line back.

I see a third consecutive solid year for Rudi Johnson. He gets very little credit for the consistency he provides. He is frequently downgraded due to his low receptions, even in leagues with no PPR.

He has Chris Perry who spells him occasionally and that keeps his legs rested better than if he was used full time. He had no fewer than 16 carries in any game in 2004 and only two under that last year, including the final game of the season.

I don't think Carson Palmer's injury will affect Rudi's projection numbers as much as his ADP, so I believe that Rudi will present value early in round two.

350 carries for 1470 yards, 13 TDs, with 22 catches for 150 yds and 1 TD.

Johnson's past two years are spookily similar: four yards different in rushing, six yards different in receiving, same number of TDs. That makes it hard to predict anything much different than 1456 yards rushing and 86 yards receiving with 12 TDs, but I'm not going to do that.

I actually am going to give Rudi a slight downgrade due to the situation with Carson Palmer. I believe at this point that Palmer will come back for game one, but I don't believe he will be at 100%, and the offense will start the season out of sync. After ranking in the top 10 in scoring the past two years, the Bengals will dip into the middle of the pack, and that will affect Johnson's TD numbers. His lack of receiving hurts his ability to pile up combined yardage, so I predict he will wind up as a marginal starter this year.

325 rushes, 1300 yards, 9 TD, 20 receptions, 90 yards. Good for approxiamtely RB#10.

Click to expand...

How can RB #10 be a marginal starter? Very few leagues have less than 2 RBs so even an 8-team league requires 16 starting RBs?

Click to expand...

Sorry, I meant a marginal RB1. I will edit.

Players that are being drafted ahead of him have many more question marks. Edgerrin James will be on a new team. Steven Jackson has yet to prove that he can be truly effective for an entire season. Carnell Williams will also lose third down touches and is not sure to get the bulk of the goal line carries with Alstott still there. Ronnie Brown is being asked to carry the full load for the first time. LaMont Jordan has one good season to his name and he barely reached 1000 yards. Some or all of those players may finish ahead of Johnson, but I would draft him ahead of all of them because he has shown that he can handle 330-360 carries over each of the last two seasons. The Bengals are a good offensive team and I expect Palmer to be ready for Week 1.

Prediction

360 carries 1580 yards 15 TDs

18 receptions 90 yards 0 TDs

Click to expand...

The above quote from Musesboy kind of captures where I would go with Rudi. His offensive line is top 3 and has depth. The skill positions are top notch with the exception of TE. He has Chris Perry who has a different skill set and the Bengals have shown they can get Perry touches without lessening Rudi's. He has been eerily consistent as some have already noted in his production. He sits in the second tier of RB's for me and many others, but has far less questions then many of the others in this tier. He is the safe pick of that tier, low floor with not as much upside. The only concern with Rudi is if Palmer doesn't come back for week 1 or he does and is out of sync, opposing D's may force the Cincy passing game to beat them. I don't consider this nearly as big a question mark as the ones Edge, SJax, Brown and Caddy have. Rudi is the pick that won't lose you the title as an RB1 if the top 3 are gone and Portis. He'll get slightly discounted in PPR leagues because Perry gobbles up most of that.345 carries, 1500 yards and 13 TD's

Insignificant through the air

I've never been a big Rudi Johnson fan, but how can you argue what he's done in recent years? I see him being productive yet again in 2006, and with Palmer potentially sitting a couple of games out early on or perhaps struggling if rushed back too soon, I think Rudi could be asked to grind out some games early on... this may cause his Y/R to drop a bit, but his workload could increase to offset that.

My projection-

Rush Yds: 1425

Rush TDs: 11

Recs: 20

Rec Yds: 135

Rec TDs: 1

Predictions

375 Rushes

1538 Rushing Yards

16 Rush TDs

20 Receptions

100 Receiving Yards

1 Receiving TDs

Say hello to the new Tiki Barber, well sorta. Rudi seems to be overlooked by many and for the past two seasons has outperformed his ADP. There will be people that point to his lack of involvement in the passing game to justify giving him a lower ranking. I will supply Rudi's points scored in a PPR league to proove that even in a PPR league Rudi is a top 5-7 RB.

Lets look at why some people wont or dont give RUDI his due...

I have read where people are not giving RUDI his due and many times they cite Chris Perry as the reason why...

So the question of the day for those of you that question RUDI as a top RB(I say he ends up top 5 this yr)...

Why are "you" worried about Chris Perry?

When RUDI put up 1500+ yds and 12TDs two yrs in a row...

Lets look at how those 2 yrs break down

2004 361 carries for 1454yds and 12 TDs

2004 15 receptions for 84yds

2004 376 touches 1538yrds 12TDs

2005 337 carries for 1458 and 12 TDs

2005 23 receptions for 90yds

2005 360 touches and 1548 and 12 TDs

ok a bit more

Quick guess how many RBs last yr had more carries then RUDI?

answer 5

Alexander +33(2.06/game more)

James +23(1.53/game more)

Barber +20(1.25/game more)

Portis +15(1/game more)

LT +2(.13/game more)

touches the past 2 yrs(includes receptions)

Edge 789 touches, avg 394.5/yr, 25.45 avg touches/game

Barber 785 touches, avg 392.5/yr, 24.53 avg touches/game

LT 782 touches, avg 391/yr, 25.23 avg touches/game

Portis 765 touches, avg 3982.5/yr, 24.68 avg touches/game

Alexander 761 touches, avg 380.5/yr, 23.78 avg touches/game

RUDI 736 touches, avg 368/yr, 23 avg touches/game

*only alexander, tiki and rudi have 32 games played of those 6 in the past 2 yrs, the other 3 played in 31

so over the past 2 yrs rudi has averaged

2.45 TOUCHES/game less then EDGE

2.23 Touches/game less then LT

1.68 Touches/game less then PORTIS

1.53 Touches/game less then TIKI

0.78 Touches/game less then ALEXANDER

yet some people are worried about Perry stealing touches from RUDI.

Last yr Perry had a total of 112 Touches for 607 yards. I think you will see(baring injury but all RBs are at risk of that) Perry with very a very similar number of touches this yr...yeah I think Perry will be a very

nice starting RB someday but for now RUDI will be the workhorse and Perry will continue in his current role IMHO...

CONSISTENCY cant be overlooked...

rudi was something last yr that gets overlooked so much...he was CONSISTENT(no he wasnt putting up 30pt weeks, but he was putting up solid numbers...

Rudi's lowest score of the yr was 7.6pts

Alexander scored less then that twice

Tiki less once

LT less once

Portis less twice

In a PPR league which is what these numbers are coming from seeing that Rudi never scored less then 7.6 points and only had 6 games(excluding week 17 that he didnt play much at all) that he didnt score double digits in(9.8, 9.4, 8.8, 9.3, 7.7, 7.6) is pretty impressive considering he doesnt get many receptions.

I am not saying RUDI is gonna score like those guys(but i still see RUDI being a top 5 RB) but that the perry factor is over blown...

some people will say but he had a couple of MONSTER GAMES(in decemeber...thats a good time for monster games isnt it?!)

ok i broke down the DECEMBER games on RUDI and the 5 backs I have in this thread

his MONSTER games were:

RUDI

30carries/169yds 1TD, 3rec/11yds 0TD

24carries/117yds 2TDs, 1rec/14yds 0TD

Thats 311 total yards & 3TDs

accounting for 20% of his yrly total yardage total

accounting for 25% of his yrly TD Total

Rudi's December totals(4 games)

510yards, 33% of his yrly total

100 touches, 27.7% of his yrly total

5TDs, 42% of his yrly total

--------------------

now lets look at the other 5 RBs and 2 of their MONSTER GAMES and December performance

BARBER

2 Monster Games accounted for

512 yards & 3TDs

accounting for 21.4% of his yrly yardage total

accounting for 33.3% of his yrly TD total

Tiki's December totals(5 Games)

742yards, 31% of his yrly yardage total

158 touches, 38.4% of his yrly total

4TDs, 44.4% of his yrly TD Total

------------------

EDGE

2 Monster Games accounted for

306yards & 5TDs

accounting for 16.6% of his yrly yardage total

accounting for 35.7% of his yrly TD total

Edge's December totals(4 Games)

266yards, 14.4% of his yrly yardage total

100 touches, 25% of his yrly total

2TDs, 14.3% of his yrly TD total

------------------

PORTIS

2 Monster Games accounted for

290yards & 3TDs

accounting for 16.7% of his yrly yardage total

accounting for 27.3% of his yrly TD Total

Clinton's December totals(4 Games)

461yards, 26.6% of his yrly yardage total

109 touches, 28.5% of his yrly total

4TDs, 36.4% of his yrly TD Total

-----------------

LT

2 Monster Games accounted for

433yards & 6TDs

accounting for 23.6% of his yrly yardage total

accounting for 30% of his yrly TD Total

LT's December totals(5 Games)

431yards, 23.5% of his yrly yardage total

117 touches, 30% of his yrly total

1TD, .05% of his yrly TD Total

----------------------

ALEXANDER

2 Monster Games accounted for

306yards & 7TDs

accounting for 15.6% of his yrly yardage total

accounting for 25% of his yrly TD Total

Shaun's December totals(4 Games)

494yards, 25.2% of his yrly yardage total

92 touches, 23.9% of his yrly total

7TDs, 25% of his yrly TD Total

--------------------

for something a bit more interesting take a look at % of carries compared to % of yardage gained in december

take what you want from the numbers but still IMO i think the Perry worry is overblown(and yeah i think perry is a heck of a talent and will get a shot somewhere some day) and I also think the 2 MONSTER games that some will point to is a PLUS not a negative

FWIW-not each of the backs monster games came from the month of dec.

also in the PPR league i took the numbers from Rudi was the #8 RB

1. Alexander

2. LJ

3. LT

4. Tiki

5. Edge

6. Jordan

7. Portis

8. Rudi

Good stuff Keg and Musesboy!!

Good stuff Keg and Musesboy!!

Click to expand...

Thanks

Good stuff Keg and Musesboy!!

Click to expand...

thanks

Keg said:

Predictions375 Rushes 1538 Rushing Yards 16 Rush TDs 20 Receptions 100 Receiving Yards 1 Receiving TDsSay hello to the new Tiki Barber, well sorta. Rudi seems to be overlooked by many and for the past two seasons has outperformed his ADP. There will be people that point to his lack of involvement in the passing game to justify giving him a lower ranking. I will supply Rudi's points scored in a PPR league to proove that even in a PPR league Rudi is a top 5-7 RB.Lets look at why some people wont or dont give RUDI his due...I have read where people are not giving RUDI his due and many times they cite Chris Perry as the reason why...So the question of the day for those of you that question RUDI as a top RB(I say he ends up top 5 this yr)...Why are "you" worried about Chris Perry?When RUDI put up 1500+ yds and 12TDs two yrs in a row...Lets look at how those 2 yrs break down2004 361 carries for 1454yds and 12 TDs2004 15 receptions for 84yds2004 376 touches 1538yrds 12TDs2005 337 carries for 1458 and 12 TDs2005 23 receptions for 90yds2005 360 touches and 1548 and 12 TDsok a bit moreQuick guess how many RBs last yr had more carries then RUDI?answer 5Alexander +33(2.06/game more)James +23(1.53/game more)Barber +20(1.25/game more)Portis +15(1/game more)LT +2(.13/game more)touches the past 2 yrs(includes receptions)Edge 789 touches, avg 394.5/yr, 25.45 avg touches/gameBarber 785 touches, avg 392.5/yr, 24.53 avg touches/gameLT 782 touches, avg 391/yr, 25.23 avg touches/gamePortis 765 touches, avg 3982.5/yr, 24.68 avg touches/gameAlexander 761 touches, avg 380.5/yr, 23.78 avg touches/gameRUDI 736 touches, avg 368/yr, 23 avg touches/game*only alexander, tiki and rudi have 32 games played of those 6 in the past 2 yrs, the other 3 played in 31so over the past 2 yrs rudi has averaged2.45 TOUCHES/game less then EDGE2.23 Touches/game less then LT1.68 Touches/game less then PORTIS1.53 Touches/game less then TIKI0.78 Touches/game less then ALEXANDERyet some people are worried about Perry stealing touches from RUDI.Last yr Perry had a total of 112 Touches for 607 yards. I think you will see(baring injury but all RBs are at risk of that) Perry with very a very similar number of touches this yr...yeah I think Perry will be a verynice starting RB someday but for now RUDI will be the workhorse and Perry will continue in his current role IMHO...CONSISTENCY cant be overlooked...rudi was something last yr that gets overlooked so much...he was CONSISTENT(no he wasnt putting up 30pt weeks, but he was putting up solid numbers...Rudi's lowest score of the yr was 7.6ptsAlexander scored less then that twiceTiki less onceLT less oncePortis less twiceIn a PPR league which is what these numbers are coming from seeing that Rudi never scored less then 7.6 points and only had 6 games(excluding week 17 that he didnt play much at all) that he didnt score double digits in(9.8, 9.4, 8.8, 9.3, 7.7, 7.6) is pretty impressive considering he doesnt get many receptions.I am not saying RUDI is gonna score like those guys(but i still see RUDI being a top 5 RB) but that the perry factor is over blown...some people will say but he had a couple of MONSTER GAMES(in decemeber...thats a good time for monster games isnt it?!)ok i broke down the DECEMBER games on RUDI and the 5 backs I have in this threadhis MONSTER games were:RUDI30carries/169yds 1TD, 3rec/11yds 0TD24carries/117yds 2TDs, 1rec/14yds 0TDThats 311 total yards & 3TDsaccounting for 20% of his yrly total yardage totalaccounting for 25% of his yrly TD TotalRudi's December totals(4 games)510yards, 33% of his yrly total100 touches, 27.7% of his yrly total5TDs, 42% of his yrly total--------------------now lets look at the other 5 RBs and 2 of their MONSTER GAMES and December performanceBARBER2 Monster Games accounted for512 yards & 3TDsaccounting for 21.4% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 33.3% of his yrly TD totalTiki's December totals(5 Games)742yards, 31% of his yrly yardage total158 touches, 38.4% of his yrly total4TDs, 44.4% of his yrly TD Total------------------EDGE2 Monster Games accounted for306yards & 5TDsaccounting for 16.6% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 35.7% of his yrly TD totalEdge's December totals(4 Games)266yards, 14.4% of his yrly yardage total100 touches, 25% of his yrly total2TDs, 14.3% of his yrly TD total------------------PORTIS2 Monster Games accounted for290yards & 3TDsaccounting for 16.7% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 27.3% of his yrly TD TotalClinton's December totals(4 Games)461yards, 26.6% of his yrly yardage total109 touches, 28.5% of his yrly total4TDs, 36.4% of his yrly TD Total-----------------LT2 Monster Games accounted for433yards & 6TDsaccounting for 23.6% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 30% of his yrly TD TotalLT's December totals(5 Games)431yards, 23.5% of his yrly yardage total117 touches, 30% of his yrly total1TD, .05% of his yrly TD Total----------------------ALEXANDER2 Monster Games accounted for306yards & 7TDsaccounting for 15.6% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 25% of his yrly TD TotalShaun's December totals(4 Games)494yards, 25.2% of his yrly yardage total92 touches, 23.9% of his yrly total7TDs, 25% of his yrly TD Total--------------------for something a bit more interesting take a look at % of carries compared to % of yardage gained in decembertake what you want from the numbers but still IMO i think the Perry worry is overblown(and yeah i think perry is a heck of a talent and will get a shot somewhere some day) and I also think the 2 MONSTER games that some will point to is a PLUS not a negativeFWIW-not each of the backs monster games came from the month of dec.also in the PPR league i took the numbers from Rudi was the #8 RB1. Alexander2. LJ3. LT4. Tiki5. Edge6. Jordan7. Portis8. Rudi

Click to expand...

Excellent post.Congrats on your win

Musesboy said:

Excellent post.Congrats on your win

Click to expand...

Isn't it a little early to be patting ourselves on the back? Rudi hasn't put up his 1500 yards and 14 TD's yet.

Lemmiwinks said:

Musesboy said:

Excellent post.Congrats on your win

Click to expand...

Isn't it a little early to be patting ourselves on the back? Rudi hasn't put up his 1500 yards and 14 TD's yet.

Click to expand...

Now that the season is virtually upon us, and Palmer looks great, and Perry is on the PUP, I think Rudi is primed for the the best year of his career. He'll be facing thin fronts, because of the excellent passing O. He'll be in for 3 down's. His knee is healthy. He's in the best shape. All things line up and he should hit 360/1600/18-30/150/2, and I may be shortchanging him on the rushing numbers. He, and the 'gals, could be ready to go a nice 2-3 year offensive show. I feel like I stole him falling into my lap at 1-9. I thought w/ Palmers performance, and the news on Perry, his value would have risen.

Lemmiwinks said:

Musesboy said:

Excellent post.Congrats on your win

Click to expand...

Isn't it a little early to be patting ourselves on the back? Rudi hasn't put up his 1500 yards and 14 TD's yet.

Click to expand...

I like the logic and the reasons for ranking Johnson above some of the less proven players. Some of the players will bust but I think that using the logic that Keg followed can help minimize the risk. That is key, in the early rounds especially.

I took him at the 4 spot is my final draft. I haven't had a single doubt since. People who drafted before we saw Palmer in the pre-season and got Rudi late first absolutely stole him. Here's to a healthy season.

avoiding injuries said:

I took him at the 4 spot is my final draft. I haven't had a single doubt since. People who drafted before we saw Palmer in the pre-season and got Rudi late first absolutely stole him. Here's to a healthy season.

Click to expand...

I remember you were mulling this over. Glad to have you aboard! With the Perry injury, this guy is GOLD at the end of RD1.

1-8 last night!!! is there room here on the bandwagon?

avoiding injuries said:

I took him at the 4 spot is my final draft. I haven't had a single doubt since. People who drafted before we saw Palmer in the pre-season and got Rudi late first absolutely stole him. Here's to a healthy season.

Click to expand...

I took him at 1.6 and feel the same way. All I hear from the SJax, Ronnie, Lamont, and Caddy owners is questions about their top pick. All I'm thinking about are my later picks.It almost a strange calm....

avoiding injuries said:

I took him at the 4 spot is my final draft. I haven't had a single doubt since. People who drafted before we saw Palmer in the pre-season and got Rudi late first absolutely stole him. Here's to a healthy season.

Click to expand...

I took him at 1.6 and feel the same way. All I hear from the SJax, Ronnie, Lamont, and Caddy owners is questions about their top pick. All I'm thinking about are my later picks.It almost a strange calm....

If you're so calm, why were your hands trembling so much that you double posted?

Musesboy said:

Keg said:

Predictions375 Rushes 1538 Rushing Yards 16 Rush TDs 20 Receptions 100 Receiving Yards 1 Receiving TDsSay hello to the new Tiki Barber, well sorta. Rudi seems to be overlooked by many and for the past two seasons has outperformed his ADP. There will be people that point to his lack of involvement in the passing game to justify giving him a lower ranking. I will supply Rudi's points scored in a PPR league to proove that even in a PPR league Rudi is a top 5-7 RB.Lets look at why some people wont or dont give RUDI his due...I have read where people are not giving RUDI his due and many times they cite Chris Perry as the reason why...So the question of the day for those of you that question RUDI as a top RB(I say he ends up top 5 this yr)...Why are "you" worried about Chris Perry?When RUDI put up 1500+ yds and 12TDs two yrs in a row...Lets look at how those 2 yrs break down2004 361 carries for 1454yds and 12 TDs2004 15 receptions for 84yds2004 376 touches 1538yrds 12TDs2005 337 carries for 1458 and 12 TDs2005 23 receptions for 90yds2005 360 touches and 1548 and 12 TDsok a bit moreQuick guess how many RBs last yr had more carries then RUDI?answer 5Alexander +33(2.06/game more)James +23(1.53/game more)Barber +20(1.25/game more)Portis +15(1/game more)LT +2(.13/game more)touches the past 2 yrs(includes receptions)Edge 789 touches, avg 394.5/yr, 25.45 avg touches/gameBarber 785 touches, avg 392.5/yr, 24.53 avg touches/gameLT 782 touches, avg 391/yr, 25.23 avg touches/gamePortis 765 touches, avg 3982.5/yr, 24.68 avg touches/gameAlexander 761 touches, avg 380.5/yr, 23.78 avg touches/gameRUDI 736 touches, avg 368/yr, 23 avg touches/game*only alexander, tiki and rudi have 32 games played of those 6 in the past 2 yrs, the other 3 played in 31so over the past 2 yrs rudi has averaged2.45 TOUCHES/game less then EDGE2.23 Touches/game less then LT1.68 Touches/game less then PORTIS1.53 Touches/game less then TIKI0.78 Touches/game less then ALEXANDERyet some people are worried about Perry stealing touches from RUDI.Last yr Perry had a total of 112 Touches for 607 yards. I think you will see(baring injury but all RBs are at risk of that) Perry with very a very similar number of touches this yr...yeah I think Perry will be a verynice starting RB someday but for now RUDI will be the workhorse and Perry will continue in his current role IMHO...CONSISTENCY cant be overlooked...rudi was something last yr that gets overlooked so much...he was CONSISTENT(no he wasnt putting up 30pt weeks, but he was putting up solid numbers...Rudi's lowest score of the yr was 7.6ptsAlexander scored less then that twiceTiki less onceLT less oncePortis less twiceIn a PPR league which is what these numbers are coming from seeing that Rudi never scored less then 7.6 points and only had 6 games(excluding week 17 that he didnt play much at all) that he didnt score double digits in(9.8, 9.4, 8.8, 9.3, 7.7, 7.6) is pretty impressive considering he doesnt get many receptions.I am not saying RUDI is gonna score like those guys(but i still see RUDI being a top 5 RB) but that the perry factor is over blown...some people will say but he had a couple of MONSTER GAMES(in decemeber...thats a good time for monster games isnt it?!)ok i broke down the DECEMBER games on RUDI and the 5 backs I have in this threadhis MONSTER games were:RUDI30carries/169yds 1TD, 3rec/11yds 0TD24carries/117yds 2TDs, 1rec/14yds 0TDThats 311 total yards & 3TDsaccounting for 20% of his yrly total yardage totalaccounting for 25% of his yrly TD TotalRudi's December totals(4 games)510yards, 33% of his yrly total100 touches, 27.7% of his yrly total5TDs, 42% of his yrly total--------------------now lets look at the other 5 RBs and 2 of their MONSTER GAMES and December performanceBARBER2 Monster Games accounted for512 yards & 3TDsaccounting for 21.4% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 33.3% of his yrly TD totalTiki's December totals(5 Games)742yards, 31% of his yrly yardage total158 touches, 38.4% of his yrly total4TDs, 44.4% of his yrly TD Total------------------EDGE2 Monster Games accounted for306yards & 5TDsaccounting for 16.6% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 35.7% of his yrly TD totalEdge's December totals(4 Games)266yards, 14.4% of his yrly yardage total100 touches, 25% of his yrly total2TDs, 14.3% of his yrly TD total------------------PORTIS2 Monster Games accounted for290yards & 3TDsaccounting for 16.7% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 27.3% of his yrly TD TotalClinton's December totals(4 Games)461yards, 26.6% of his yrly yardage total109 touches, 28.5% of his yrly total4TDs, 36.4% of his yrly TD Total-----------------LT2 Monster Games accounted for433yards & 6TDsaccounting for 23.6% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 30% of his yrly TD TotalLT's December totals(5 Games)431yards, 23.5% of his yrly yardage total117 touches, 30% of his yrly total1TD, .05% of his yrly TD Total----------------------ALEXANDER2 Monster Games accounted for306yards & 7TDsaccounting for 15.6% of his yrly yardage totalaccounting for 25% of his yrly TD TotalShaun's December totals(4 Games)494yards, 25.2% of his yrly yardage total92 touches, 23.9% of his yrly total7TDs, 25% of his yrly TD Total--------------------for something a bit more interesting take a look at % of carries compared to % of yardage gained in decembertake what you want from the numbers but still IMO i think the Perry worry is overblown(and yeah i think perry is a heck of a talent and will get a shot somewhere some day) and I also think the 2 MONSTER games that some will point to is a PLUS not a negativeFWIW-not each of the backs monster games came from the month of dec.also in the PPR league i took the numbers from Rudi was the #8 RB1. Alexander2. LJ3. LT4. Tiki5. Edge6. Jordan7. Portis8. Rudi

Click to expand...

Excellent post.Congrats on your win

Click to expand...

thanks and cograts on your win too

Predicted

360 carries 1580 yards 15 TDs

18 receptions 90 yards 0 TDs

Actual

341 carries 1309 yards 12 TDs

23 receptions 124 yards 0 TDs

Evilgrin 72 nailed this prediction, while I was on the high side. I still like my reasoning and I wasn't disappointed with Rudi Johnson in those leagues that I did draft him, but I did think he would perform better. I am glad I owned him over LaMont Jordan, Carnell Williams or Ronnie Brown, but Steven Jackson would have been a great acquisition and I would have drafted Johnson ahead of him at every opportunity.

Musesboy said:

Rudi Johnson isn't the most exciting pick in the first round, but he is one of the safest. He has posted two straight seasons over 1400 yards, and scored 12 times in each of them. He also did well when Corey Dillon was hurt in 2003. He has recently revealed that he injured his knee in Week 2 last year, but played through the injury for the remainder of the season. Rather than showing signs of wearing down, Johnson significantly increased his production over the second half of the season. The last eight games saw him carry 175 times for 777 yards and 10 TDs.

Johnson has reportedly slimmed down this summer and is currently 218 pounds. He has been working on his conditioning and endurance in case he is required to carry more of the load than usual due to the uncertain status of QB Carson Palmer. Johnson has also had cartilage repaired in the injured knee, and is now back to full strength.

Some will worry about the presence of Chris Perry, but I consider it a bonus. Johnson is not a receiving threat and Perry will see most of the action on third down. If something does happen to Johnson, Perry looks to be an above average backup that can be had relatively cheaply as a handcuff. Perry is currently being drafted in the tenth round in 12 team leagues.

Johnson seems to take his role very seriously and it is encouraging to see that he is doing extra work to be ready if the team needs him to increase his carries this season.

Players that are being drafted ahead of him have many more question marks. Edgerrin James will be on a new team. Steven Jackson has yet to prove that he can be truly effective for an entire season. Carnell Williams will also lose third down touches and is not sure to get the bulk of the goal line carries with Alstott still there. Ronnie Brown is being asked to carry the full load for the first time. LaMont Jordan has one good season to his name and he barely reached 1000 yards. Some or all of those players may finish ahead of Johnson, but I would draft him ahead of all of them because he has shown that he can handle 330-360 carries over each of the last two seasons. The Bengals are a good offensive team and I expect Palmer to be ready for Week 1.

Prediction

360 carries 1580 yards 15 TDs

18 receptions 90 yards 0 TDs

Click to expand...