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Player Spotlight: Antonio Gates (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Antonio Gates Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
80 receptions, 992 yards, 9 TD.

The receptions would be slightly down from 2005 (and similar to his 2004 numbers), the receiving yardage would be similar to his career average in terms of yards per catch (12.4 as stated above, 12.6 is his career), and the touchdowns slightly lower because of the new quarterback.

Floor: 70 receptions, 854 yards (12.2 ypc), 6 TD

Ceiling: 90 receptions, 1143 yards (12.7 ypc), 13 TD

Consensus #1 tight end.

 
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Lingering question for me is...What does the loss of Brees mean to this Offense?

Rivers while a nice talent is a step below Brees in today's NFL. Although the TE is a QB' best friend, I am not as high as other about Gates. I see them giving Rivers a fairly vanilla offense with a big dose of LT2. This offense will be ugly at times and be hard to watch....Gates included.

For me as a drafting strategy, I will not be looking at Gates based on his current ADP 27 (TE 1). The TE group looks deep to me, I'll be taking a RB or WR in round 3

65 catches

850 yards

7 TD's

 
Gates' talent can't be doubted but he finished last season with fewer than 55 yards in five of his last seven games. In addition he's relying on a qb who hasn't started a game since 2003. Still Gates is the best receiver San Diego has:

80 catches for 964 yards and 9 TDs

 
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74 Catches

911 yards

8 TDs

I still expect Gates to be the Top TE, but I don't think he duplicates last year (or the year before). As others have pointed out, Rivers is still a bit of an unkown. More so to the point that Rivers may favor getting the ball to his wideouts a bit more then Brees did. Also both Shea and Manu may see a tad more time on the field then the previous backups at TE.

 
For all that Rivers is a bit of an unknown, I haven't seen this much doubt of a high QB pick in some time. QBs who sit their rookie year routinely outperform those who start immediately, and some come in and are immediate stars (recently, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper and Michael Vick all put up good-to-awesome stats in their first years as starters, after sitting one to two years).

Rivers was considered the most NFL-ready in his QB class, so it would be quite a shock if he came out with an Alex Smith-type season. Even if he's not incredible it would be hard to see Gates not getting his. Heck, you're throwing to the biggest thing on the field, it can't be THAT hard.

 
QB is not a position that is plug and play, so Rivers should really hurt Gates this season. Gates has had two of the best FF seasons ever for a TE...but Brees was his QB. Now the Chargers have a complete unknown at QB, a very difficult schedule, and no other weapons in the passing game to take the heat off of Gates. Gonzo, Heap, Crumpler & Shockey should all have better years than Gates. Better off letting someone else grab him and go for a guy like McMichael or Witten later on if you can't get one of the big four.

55 Rec.

673 Yards

5 TD's

 
QB is not a position that is plug and play, so Rivers should really hurt Gates this season. Gates has had two of the best FF seasons ever for a TE...but Brees was his QB. Now the Chargers have a complete unknown at QB, a very difficult schedule, and no other weapons in the passing game to take the heat off of Gates. Gonzo, Heap, Crumpler & Shockey should all have better years than Gates. Better off letting someone else grab him and go for a guy like McMichael or Witten later on if you can't get one of the big four.

55 Rec.

673 Yards

5 TD's
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That's incredibly pessimistic. What was Brees, if not unproven, when he met Mr. Gates? Nobody back then was like "Well, thank God for Drew Brees" that I can remember. He was about one or two bad starts from wasting away on the bench IIRC. I'd worry more about Brees' future without Gates than Gates' without Brees. Antonio Gates is one of those rare talents that will get his numbers no matter what. As far as no other weapons in the passing game goes, it sure hasn't hurt him so far. LT2 will provide plenty enough distraction anyway. I really don't see any major reason for concern in selecting Gates this year.

84 catches

1043 yards

9 TDs

 
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Gates has averaged 65 catches for 818 yards and 8 TDs. He was not a regular starter in the first of his three years.

As hard as it is to believe, this guy is still improving at his position and as a football player. He didn't play college ball and didn't play TE in high school. As dominant as he has been, he still has a ton of room for improvement. It's hard for me to believe his development will be stunted because of a new QB.

That QB has been in the system and around Gates for two years and was one of the most accurate passers in NCAA history. There's a reason why Brees was shopped around last year after one of the best seasons ever for a quarterback.

I don't anticipate much of a dropoff, if any: 85 catches, 1000 yards, and 10 TDs (almost what he did last year).

 
I decided to look at inexperienced QBs and how their TEs perform. I looked at QBs with three or fewer years in the NFL, who were in their first year as a starter (>300 attempts). Since the year 2000, those are:

2005:

Eli Manning

Kyle Orton

Chris Simms

2004:

Kyle Boller

Carson Palmer

Josh McCown

Billy Volek

2003:

Marc Bulger

Quincy Carter

Byron Leftwich

Patrick Ramsey

2002:

Drew Brees

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Michael Vick

Chad Pennington

2001:

Chris Weinke

Tom Brady

Matt Hasselbeck

2000:

Donovan McNabb

Daunte Culpepper

Shaun King

The best TEs produced by this group were:

1-10 (4):

2005 Shockey (#2)

2002 Billy Miller (#7)

2002 Alge Crumpler (#8)

2000 Chad Lewis (#4)

11-20 (7):

2005 Alex Smith (#20)

2004 Freddie Jones (#17)

2002 Stephen Alexander (#15)

2002 Mikhael Ricks (#18)

2002 Anthony Becht (#16)

2001 Wesley Walls (#12)

2000 Dave Moore (#19)

21+ (11):

2005 Desmond Clark (#30)

2004 Todd Heap (#24)

2004 Matt Schoebl (#28)

2004 Ben Troupe (#30)

2003 Brandon Manumaleuna (#28)

2003 Jason Witten (#23)

2003 Kyle Brady (#30)

2003 Zeron Flemister (#66)

2001 Jermaine Wiggins (#24)

2001 Christian Fauria (#38)

2000 Johnny McWilliams (#26)

The trend here is obvious; on teams with first-year starting QBs, TEs did very poorly. Out of 22, only four produced above the baseline, and only two produced more than 16 points of VBD value vs. the #12 starter. In addition, for almost every TE except 2005 Shockey, this performance represented a down year; better performances were had by the TE before the studied year, after it, or both.

Here are the rankings of the QBs for the TEs who finished above the baseline:

2005 E.Manning: #4

2002 Vick: #3

2002 Carr: #24

2000 McNabb: #5

In three of the four cases where a TE being thrown to by a first-year QB finished above the baseline, the QB finished top-5 in fantasy points. That is, the TEs who performed well from this set benefitted from an overall passing game that was unusually effective, considering that they had a first-year starter at QB.

What does all this mean? Among other things, it clearly shows that first-year staters do not, in general, throw to their TE preferentially. It's already known that teams with first-year starters tend to have poor passing games, and this shows that the TE position is affected as much as, or even more than, other receiving positions. (Eyeballing this list of QBs, it looks like it produced a lot more top WRs than TEs).

There are a number of quality TEs on this list, although Shockey, who had the best season of this group, is perhaps the closest analog to Gates. However, there are differences there, notably that Manning started eight games the year before (197 attempts), and that he threw 557 passes (#3 in the league) in the season in question. Rivers has a total of 30 NFL attempts, all in meaningless games, and it is extremely unlikely that Schottenheimer will have him in the top 10 in pass attempts. In 20 years as a coach, Schottenheimer's teams have been in the top 10 in pass attempts only three times, and never in the top 5. Rivers, having no real game experience, will not get the opportunity to chuck it 550+ times under Martyball.

Gates is extremely talented, but if you project a significant drop in passing production for the Chargers (as I do), you have to project a significant drop in his receiving numbers. I think he will still be in the top 5, probably in the top 3 TEs, but will not be worth the premium that is currently being paid for him in drafts this year.

65 receptions, 780 yards, 7 TD. Good for TE#3.

 
I decided to look at inexperienced QBs and how their TEs perform. I looked at QBs with three or fewer years in the NFL, who were in their first year as a starter (>300 attempts).
Click to expand...
In how many of those cases had the QB been in the same offense for two years working with the top TE in the league both years?
 
The one thing that no one seems to mention about Gates is he's just scratching the surface of his talent. The guy is still learning the game and there's a very good chance he's going to be a much better player than he was the last two years. That's a very scary thought.

As for his totals this year, it comes down to whether you think Rivers will be solid or not. I don't think there's any doubts he'll have some struggles. That's pretty much a given for most first year starters. Yet, I also think that he's in a very stable situation and he's had two years to digest the playbook and get a feel for the game. Therefore as long as the O line plays well I think he'll be a little more comfortable than some think.

As for this year, I look for Gates to put up pretty much the same numbers he did last year although it will come over 16 games instead of the 15 last year.

85 rec, 1075 yds, 11 TDs

 
I decided to look at inexperienced QBs and how their TEs perform. I looked at QBs with three or fewer years in the NFL, who were in their first year as a starter (>300 attempts).
Click to expand...
In how many of those cases had the QB been in the same offense for two years working with the top TE in the league both years?
Click to expand...
In how many cases have you ignored detailed analysis in favor of off-the-cuff remarks?
 
I decided to look at inexperienced QBs and how their TEs perform. I looked at QBs with three or fewer years in the NFL, who were in their first year as a starter (>300 attempts).
Click to expand...
In how many of those cases had the QB been in the same offense for two years working with the top TE in the league both years?
Click to expand...
In how many cases have you ignored detailed analysis in favor of off-the-cuff remarks?
Click to expand...
I did read your analysis, and it was quite comprehensive. I apologize if you addressed my question in your post and I missed it. Would you be kind enough to point it out for me?
 
I did read your analysis, and it was quite comprehensive. I apologize if you addressed my question in your post and I missed it. Would you be kind enough to point it out for me?
Click to expand...
I pointed out that Shockey was the most analagous to Gates, but that Shockey had advantages which Gates will not have (game experience with his QB, top-5 passing opportunities). Thus, I project Gates to perform not quite as well as Shockey did in 2005, though still at the very top of the sample group.
 
CalBear -

IMO, the numbers you posted do not account for:

- Limited experience QB taking over for a Top 10 QB

- The QB in question was not a rookie

- The team started with an elite TE

- The team ranked Top 5 in points scored

I suspect that that cuts the data set to next to nothing, but those examples will be closer than comparing a Bottom 3 offense with a terrible TE to start with.

 
I pointed out that Shockey was the most analagous to Gates, but that Shockey had advantages which Gates will not have (game experience with his QB, top-5 passing opportunities). Thus, I project Gates to perform not quite as well as Shockey did in 2005, though still at the very top of the sample group.
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Well, then that's where your analysis breaks down then. The best situation you could find to compare it to was a guy who has never been the best TE in the league being thrown to by a guy who hadn't been in one system for two previous years. I can't see much support here for believing he will be worse than Shockey was last year.
 
QBs who sit their rookie year routinely outperform those who start immediately, and some come in and are immediate stars (recently, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper and Michael Vick all put up good-to-awesome stats in their first years as starters, after sitting one to two years).]
Click to expand...
but the best qb in the league, Peyton Manning, started right away and I'm not sure how pennington qualifies as a star
 
I pointed out that Shockey was the most analagous to Gates, but that Shockey had advantages which Gates will not have (game experience with his QB, top-5 passing opportunities). Thus, I project Gates to perform not quite as well as Shockey did in 2005, though still at the very top of the sample group.
Click to expand...
And Gates has an advantage Shockey does not have.....enormous gobs of talent and unlimited potential considering he's just begun to learn about playing in the NFL.You're looking at two totally different guys with two totally different QBs on two totally different teams with (most importantly) two totally different pasts. Comparing how they did overall is not nearly as relative to the situation at hand as comparing how they did prior to their own career averages.

Shockey had far and away the best season of his career this year, to say that that is somehow an indication that Gates' numbers will drop (not to mention by 300+ yards and 5+ TDs like you seem to be indicating) is outright ludicrous.

 
CalBear -

IMO, the numbers you posted do not account for:

- Limited experience QB taking over for a Top 10 QB

- The QB in question was not a rookie

- The team started with an elite TE

- The team ranked Top 5 in points scored

I suspect that that cuts the data set to next to nothing, but those examples will be closer than comparing a Bottom 3 offense with a terrible TE to start with.
Click to expand...
While I very much appreciate CalBear's analysis in general as well as on this topic, this is a :goodposting:
 
I decided to look at inexperienced QBs and how their TEs perform. I looked at QBs with three or fewer years in the NFL, who were in their first year as a starter (>300 attempts). Since the year 2000, those are:

2005:

Eli Manning

Kyle Orton - give me a break, not comparable in any way

Chris Simms - rookie TE - not comparable

2004:

Kyle Boller - see Heap comment below - Heap was TE #3 with Boller in 2003

Carson Palmer

Josh McCown

Billy Volek - TEBC (Kinney, Meier, Troupe) combined for 83/649/6, which would have been good for TE #2

2003:

Marc Bulger - had Bruce, Holt, and Faulk - not comparable

Quincy Carter - rookie TE - not comparable

Byron Leftwich

Patrick Ramsey

2002:

Drew Brees

David Carr - rookie QB starting for first year expansion team - not comparable

Joey Harrington - one of the worst QB seasons in history

Michael Vick

Chad Pennington

2001:

Chris Weinke

Tom Brady

Matt Hasselbeck

2000:

Donovan McNabb

Daunte Culpepper - had Moss, Carter, and Robert Smith - not comparable

Shaun King

The best TEs produced by this group were:

1-10 (4):

2005 Shockey (#2)

2002 Billy Miller (#7)

2002 Alge Crumpler (#8)

2000 Chad Lewis (#4)

11-20 (7):

2005 Alex Smith (#20)

2004 Freddie Jones (#17)

2002 Stephen Alexander (#15) - played 12 games, scaled to top 10

2002 Mikhael Ricks (#18)

2002 Anthony Becht (#16)

2001 Wesley Walls (#12)

2000 Dave Moore (#19)

21+ (11):

2005 Desmond Clark (#30) - see Orton comment above

2004 Todd Heap (#24) - only played 6 games - was TE #3 in 2003 with Boller getting 293 passing attempts

2004 Matt Schoebl (#28)

2004 Ben Troupe (#30) - see Volek comment

2003 Brandon Manumaleuna (#28)

2003 Jason Witten (#23) - rookie, not comparable

2003 Kyle Brady (#30)

2003 Zeron Flemister (#66)

2001 Jermaine Wiggins (#24)

2001 Christian Fauria (#38)

2000 Johnny McWilliams (#26)

The trend here is obvious; on teams with first-year starting QBs, TEs did very poorly. Out of 22, only four produced above the baseline, and only two produced more than 16 points of VBD value vs. the #12 starter. In addition, for almost every TE except 2005 Shockey, this performance represented a down year; better performances were had by the TE before the studied year, after it, or both.

Here are the rankings of the QBs for the TEs who finished above the baseline:

2005 E.Manning: #4

2002 Vick: #3

2002 Carr: #24

2000 McNabb: #5

In three of the four cases where a TE being thrown to by a first-year QB finished above the baseline, the QB finished top-5 in fantasy points. That is, the TEs who performed well from this set benefitted from an overall passing game that was unusually effective, considering that they had a first-year starter at QB.

What does all this mean? Among other things, it clearly shows that first-year staters do not, in general, throw to their TE preferentially. It's already known that teams with first-year starters tend to have poor passing games, and this shows that the TE position is affected as much as, or even more than, other receiving positions. (Eyeballing this list of QBs, it looks like it produced a lot more top WRs than TEs).

There are a number of quality TEs on this list, although Shockey, who had the best season of this group, is perhaps the closest analog to Gates. However, there are differences there, notably that Manning started eight games the year before (197 attempts), and that he threw 557 passes (#3 in the league) in the season in question. Rivers has a total of 30 NFL attempts, all in meaningless games, and it is extremely unlikely that Schottenheimer will have him in the top 10 in pass attempts. In 20 years as a coach, Schottenheimer's teams have been in the top 10 in pass attempts only three times, and never in the top 5. Rivers, having no real game experience, will not get the opportunity to chuck it 550+ times under Martyball.

Gates is extremely talented, but if you project a significant drop in passing production for the Chargers (as I do), you have to project a significant drop in his receiving numbers. I think he will still be in the top 5, probably in the top 3 TEs, but will not be worth the premium that is currently being paid for him in drafts this year.

65 receptions, 780 yards, 7 TD. Good for TE#3.
Click to expand...
Good analysis, but some comments added above in bold. Quickly found about 10 of your 22 examples that IMO don't survive scrutiny as predictors for Gates this year. Plus most of those and the others suffer from simply not being:1. as talented as Gates; or

2. in a TE friendly (or passing friendly) offense; or

3. both

So you end up with few examples that are legitimate predictors.

You did still predict Gates in the top 3, which is good. Hard for me to justify any prediction other than #1, unless you assume less than 16 games for some reason.

 
You're looking at two totally different guys with two totally different QBs on two totally different teams with (most importantly) two totally different pasts. Comparing how they did overall is not nearly as relative to the situation at hand as comparing how they did prior to their own career averages.
Click to expand...
No, I'm comparing one guy to at least 22 other guys, and predicting he'll probably do better than 21 of them. Obviously it's hard to find any comparables for Gates, but the fact remains that it's quite difficult to find #1 TE numbers on crappy passing offenses, and San Diego is likely to have a crappy passing offense. Those who are predicting 1000+ and 10+ for Gates had better be predicting that San Diego continues to have a top offense. In 2004 and 2005 San Diego was #3 and #5 in points scored; do you really see that continuing with Rivers at QB?Take Todd Heap as an example; the year before Boller arrived, he was the #1 TE with 836 yards and 6 TD. With Boller and Wright in 2003, he fell to 693/3, and he wasn't on much better pace in 2004 when he got injured. He didn't really recover until 2005, Boller's third year at QB.

Wesley Walls was the #1 TE in 1999, then injured in 2000. In 2001 with Weinke at QB he was #12.

Even when it's a good QB, a change at QB can impact TE numbers. Lots of people were pimping Witten in 2005, but the QB change dropped him from 87/980/6 to 66/757/6. And that was with Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson at WR, not noticably better than what San Diego has to offer.

Maybe Rivers will step in and keep the offense running at a top-5 level, but that seems like a bad bet to me, and if San Diego dips into the bottom half of NFL offenses (which is what I expect), Gates is very unlikely to distinguish himself as the #1 TE the way he has the past two years, even if he does edge out the competition. Do you really think the Chargers are going to throw 27-29 TDs this year?

 
No, I'm comparing one guy to at least 22 other guys, and predicting he'll probably do better than 21 of them. Obviously it's hard to find any comparables for Gates, but the fact remains that it's quite difficult to find #1 TE numbers on crappy passing offenses, and San Diego is likely to have a crappy passing offense. Those who are predicting 1000+ and 10+ for Gates had better be predicting that San Diego continues to have a top offense. In 2004 and 2005 San Diego was #3 and #5 in points scored; do you really see that continuing with Rivers at QB?...Maybe Rivers will step in and keep the offense running at a top-5 level, but that seems like a bad bet to me, and if San Diego dips into the bottom half of NFL offenses (which is what I expect), Gates is very unlikely to distinguish himself as the #1 TE the way he has the past two years, even if he does edge out the competition. Do you really think the Chargers are going to throw 27-29 TDs this year?
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I don't think either the Chargers overall offense or passing offense will be in the bottom half of the NFL, so that is probably where we differ.
Take Todd Heap as an example; the year before Boller arrived, he was the #1 TE with 836 yards and 6 TD. With Boller and Wright in 2003, he fell to 693/3, and he wasn't on much better pace in 2004 when he got injured. He didn't really recover until 2005, Boller's third year at QB.
Click to expand...
Boller was a rookie in 2003, and the Ravens moved to more of a ball control offense, rushing 553 times in 2003, as compared to 427 times in 2002. You may recall that 2003 was Lewis's 2000+ yard rushing season. Apples and oranges.
Wesley Walls was the #1 TE in 1999, then injured in 2000. In 2001 with Weinke at QB he was #12.
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Weinke was a rookie in 2001. Walls suffered a knee injury after the first 8 games in 2000, which you seem to assume he should have come back from with no ill effects. He missed 2 games in 2001. He was also in his 12th season and 35 years old in 2001. And despite all that, none of which is similar to Gates' situation, Walls' numbers scaled up to 16 games would have been good enough for TE #6, a total of 5 fantasy points behind TE #3.
Even when it's a good QB, a change at QB can impact TE numbers. Lots of people were pimping Witten in 2005, but the QB change dropped him from 87/980/6 to 66/757/6. And that was with Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson at WR, not noticably better than what San Diego has to offer.
Click to expand...
In 2004, Dallas relied on Witten out of necessity due to the large number of missed games by their WRs:
Code: 
+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name                 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Antonio Bryant       |  5 |    0     0   0.0   0  |   16   266  16.6   0 || Terrance Copper      | 10 |    1    -1  -1.0   0  |    7    84  12.0   1 || Patrick Crayton      |  7 |    0     0   0.0   0  |   12   162  13.5   1 || Terry Glenn          |  6 |    1    -3  -3.0   0  |   24   400  16.7   2 || Keyshawn Johnson     | 16 |    2    13   6.5   0  |   70   981  14.0   6 || Quincy Morgan        |  9 |    2    23  11.5   0  |   22   260  11.8   0 || Dedric Ward          |  8 |    1    11  11.0   0  |    1     5   5.0   0 || Randal Williams      |  2 |    1    13  13.0   0  |    1    14  14.0   0 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+
Glenn missed 10 games and Bryant was traded after 5 games. What a mess.In 2005, their running game & defense were better and they threw just slightly less, and the WRs missed fewer games, which meant they could spread the ball around a bit. 16 games from Glenn in particular made a big difference, since he contributed 62/1136/7. It seems likely that Dallas would not have chosen to target Witten as often as they did in 2004 given their choice, so 2005 was likely just a return to the preferred plan. Clearly San Diego chooses to target Gates as their #1 option, so the situations are not similar.And Gates' targets could drop by over 20% from last season, and he'd still get as many as he did in 2004, when he was TE1.
 
I decided to look at inexperienced QBs and how their TEs perform. I looked at QBs with three or fewer years in the NFL, who were in their first year as a starter (>300 attempts). Since the year 2000, those are:

2005:

Eli Manning

Kyle Orton

Chris Simms

2004:

Kyle Boller

Carson Palmer

Josh McCown

Billy Volek

2003:

Marc Bulger

Quincy Carter

Byron Leftwich

Patrick Ramsey

2002:

Drew Brees

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Michael Vick

Chad Pennington

2001:

Chris Weinke

Tom Brady

Matt Hasselbeck

2000:

Donovan McNabb

Daunte Culpepper

Shaun King

The best TEs produced by this group were:

1-10 (4):

2005 Shockey (#2)

2002 Billy Miller (#7)

2002 Alge Crumpler (#8)

2000 Chad Lewis (#4)

11-20 (7):

2005 Alex Smith (#20)

2004 Freddie Jones (#17)

2002 Stephen Alexander (#15)

2002 Mikhael Ricks (#18)

2002 Anthony Becht (#16)

2001 Wesley Walls (#12)

2000 Dave Moore (#19)

21+ (11):

2005 Desmond Clark (#30)

2004 Todd Heap (#24)

2004 Matt Schoebl (#28)

2004 Ben Troupe (#30)

2003 Brandon Manumaleuna (#28)

2003 Jason Witten (#23)

2003 Kyle Brady (#30)

2003 Zeron Flemister (#66)

2001 Jermaine Wiggins (#24)

2001 Christian Fauria (#38)

2000 Johnny McWilliams (#26)

The trend here is obvious; on teams with first-year starting QBs, TEs did very poorly. Out of 22, only four produced above the baseline, and only two produced more than 16 points of VBD value vs. the #12 starter. In addition, for almost every TE except 2005 Shockey, this performance represented a down year; better performances were had by the TE before the studied year, after it, or both.

Here are the rankings of the QBs for the TEs who finished above the baseline:

2005 E.Manning: #4

2002 Vick: #3

2002 Carr: #24

2000 McNabb: #5

In three of the four cases where a TE being thrown to by a first-year QB finished above the baseline, the QB finished top-5 in fantasy points. That is, the TEs who performed well from this set benefitted from an overall passing game that was unusually effective, considering that they had a first-year starter at QB.

What does all this mean? Among other things, it clearly shows that first-year staters do not, in general, throw to their TE preferentially. It's already known that teams with first-year starters tend to have poor passing games, and this shows that the TE position is affected as much as, or even more than, other receiving positions. (Eyeballing this list of QBs, it looks like it produced a lot more top WRs than TEs).

There are a number of quality TEs on this list, although Shockey, who had the best season of this group, is perhaps the closest analog to Gates. However, there are differences there, notably that Manning started eight games the year before (197 attempts), and that he threw 557 passes (#3 in the league) in the season in question. Rivers has a total of 30 NFL attempts, all in meaningless games, and it is extremely unlikely that Schottenheimer will have him in the top 10 in pass attempts. In 20 years as a coach, Schottenheimer's teams have been in the top 10 in pass attempts only three times, and never in the top 5. Rivers, having no real game experience, will not get the opportunity to chuck it 550+ times under Martyball.

Gates is extremely talented, but if you project a significant drop in passing production for the Chargers (as I do), you have to project a significant drop in his receiving numbers. I think he will still be in the top 5, probably in the top 3 TEs, but will not be worth the premium that is currently being paid for him in drafts this year.

65 receptions, 780 yards, 7 TD. Good for TE#3.
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I appreciate all the hard work you've done in this post, but much of it is irrelevant to the current discussion. For one, Philip Rivers has been rated as better than many of the QBs you've analyzed. Seceond, Gates is better than nearly every TE you've analyzed. I just dont' think that this study is good for predicting Gates' numbers this year.
 
90 REC /1100 YRDS /11 TDs

That's only 1 more reception, 1 less yard, and 1 more TD than last year when he missed an entire game because of a Team suspension. Also, I think sharks should seriously consider drafting Gates before any WR. Why? Look at the number of WRs listed as #1 at their position by various internet sites and fantasy mags. Now think of how little disagreement there is from those same sources regarding the #1 ranked TE. There are 7-10 WRs that have a shot finishing as #1 in fantasy points. Gates is the clear favorite to finish #1 among TEs, and usually is predicted to do so by a wide enough margin to make him a better value pick than any WR.

 
I appreciate all the hard work you've done in this post, but much of it is irrelevant to the current discussion. For one, Philip Rivers has been rated as better than many of the QBs you've analyzed.
Click to expand...
Ryan Leaf was rated pretty high, too. Ratings mean nothing, results do.Since Rivers arrived in SD, Brees has been the better QB, so the Chargers started him because he gave them the best chance to win. His success created a financial issue where they could not keep both QB's, and when Brees got hurt, it made it easy to justify letting him go.

All this garbage about Rivers looking good in OTA's is fluff. Wait until he plays in a real game against an NFL defense trying to confuse him as opposed to 7 on 7's in practice without pads.

 
Yeah, that's fine, but we're making projections here, so we don't have the luxury of waiting for the season to start. We have to evaluate Rivers today. Based on the performances of some other first-rounders who sat for a year or two, it is my contention that thinking Rivers will struggle a lot is a mistake.

 
Yeah, that's fine, but we're making projections here, so we don't have the luxury of waiting for the season to start. We have to evaluate Rivers today. Based on the performances of some other first-rounders who sat for a year or two, it is my contention that thinking Rivers will struggle a lot is a mistake.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
Wait until he plays in a real game against an NFL defense trying to confuse him as opposed to 7 on 7's in practice without pads.
Click to expand...
Some of us have seen him in a real game and came away impressed. His numbers weren't great in week 17 last year, but he came into an awful situation (already down by two TDs, sloppy field conditions, playing a 12-3 team fighting for a better playoff seed) and showed composure and accuracy. He actually looked considerably better than Brees did in that game before Drew got injured.
 
I expect Gates will have a solid year, new starter or not. Ive got him on a keeper league squad, so Im admittedly biased. But he's entering his 4th year, and imo he's not quite hit his full stride as a professional player. Last season, the man put up enormous #s, one of the greatest the league has ever seen at TE following up his '04 season which was equally beyond spectacular. Last year, the guy holds out and doesnt practice with the team for an extended period of time approaching the season, gets suspended for the 1st game, plays the first several games undoubtedly a little rusty, and still completely dominates. Imagine what a full offseason of workouts and early preseason preparation will do for him. And with all due respect to every other TE in the NFL, none of those guys should be compared to Gates. He's shown he's in a league by himself at TE over the past 2 seasons. Having said that, Ill provide some data comparting Gates upcoming season with Tony Gonzalez' 2001 season....the 1st he played with new starting QB Trent Green. Gonzalez was coming off a monster '00 season in which he had 93 catches for 1203yds and 9TDs. These stats are very similar to Gates' '05 production. With Green QBing the team in '01, Gonzalez had 73 catches for 917yds and 6TDs....quite a dropoff. Both TEs have been considered the dominant player at the position for a period, so the comparison between the two here seems to be the most fitting. But that '01 season for Tony G makes one stop and think if Gates has a similar dropoff coming up this year. Just some food for thought..........

85 catches 1000yds 12TDs

 
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Wait until he plays in a real game against an NFL defense trying to confuse him as opposed to 7 on 7's in practice without pads.
Click to expand...
Some of us have seen him in a real game and came away impressed. His numbers weren't great in week 17 last year, but he came into an awful situation (already down by two TDs, sloppy field conditions, playing a 12-3 team fighting for a better playoff seed) and showed composure and accuracy. He actually looked considerably better than Brees did in that game before Drew got injured.
Click to expand...
None of my leagues give FF points based on how people look, we get them based on stats. Here are the numbers for Rivers' three quarters of work during Week 17 vs DEN: 12-22 115 yards 0 TD 1 INTBTW Gates production with Rivers at QB: 2 catches for 11 yards and 0 TD.

Not trying to pick any fights in this thread, but dismissing the impact of losing a QB who had a great chemistry with his receiver on the field and replacing him with someone who has virtually no experience is being extremely shortsighted. If Gates suffers anything less than a 30% reduction in stats, it will be miraculous.

 
I expect Gates will have a solid year, new starter or not. Ive got him on a keeper league squad, so Im admittedly biased. But he's entering his 4th year, and imo he's not quite hit his full stride as a professional player. Last season, the man put up enormous #s, one of the greatest the league has ever seen at TE following up his '04 season which was equally beyond spectacular. Last year, the guy holds out and doesnt practice with the team for an extended period of time approaching the season, gets suspended for the 1st game, plays the first several games undoubtedly a little rusty, and still completely dominates. Imagine what a full offseason of workouts and early preseason preparation will do for him. And with all due respect to every other TE in the NFL, none of those guys should be compared to Gates. He's shown he's in a league by himself at TE over the past 2 seasons. Having said that, Ill provide some data comparting Gates upcoming season with Tony Gonzalez' 2001 season....the 1st he played with new starting QB Trent Green. Gonzalez was coming off a monster '00 season in which he had 93 catches for 1203yds and 9TDs. These stats are very similar to Gates' '05 production. With Green QBing the team in '01, Gonzalez had 73 catches for 917yds and 6TDs....quite a dropoff. Both TEs have been considered the dominant player at the position for a period, so the comparison between the two here seems to be the most fitting. But that '01 season for Tony G makes one stop and think if Gates has a similar dropoff coming up this year. Just some food for thought..........

85 catches 1000yds 12TDs
Click to expand...
Excellent post....with the exception of your stats projection.Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero

 
Having said that, Ill provide some data comparting Gates upcoming season with Tony Gonzalez' 2001 season....the 1st he played with new starting QB Trent Green. Gonzalez was coming off a monster '00 season in which he had 93 catches for 1203yds and 9TDs. These stats are very similar to Gates' '05 production. With Green QBing the team in '01, Gonzalez had 73 catches for 917yds and 6TDs....quite a dropoff. Both TEs have been considered the dominant player at the position for a period, so the comparison between the two here seems to be the most fitting. But that '01 season for Tony G makes one stop and think if Gates has a similar dropoff coming up this year. Just some food for thought..........
Click to expand...
This is not a great example IMO. Between 2000 and 2001, in addition to Green replacing Grbac as the starting QB, the team also changed coaches from Cunningham to Vermeil, and added Priest Holmes.KC was 5th in passing attempts (582) and 25th in rushing attempts (383) in 2000.KC was 16th in passing attempts (528) and 13th in rushing attempts (448) in 2001.So it was much more than the switch to Trent Green that caused Gonzalez's numbers to drop. IMO it had much more to do with adding Priest Holmes, who combined for 2169 total yards and 10 TDs in 2001.San Diego isn't changing coaches or adding another weapon to steal touches from Gates. So IMO this comparison is apples and oranges.The bottom line is that I don't think anyone will find a valid comparison that can be used as a predictor. And even if someone did find a couple, it would still be a sample set too small to be useful.
 
Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero
Click to expand...
Are you suggesting that the answer to that trivia question will always be 'zero'?
 
Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero
Click to expand...
Are you suggesting that the answer to that trivia question will always be 'zero'?
Click to expand...
So if gates only gets 9 TD, we shouldn't draft him?
 
Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero
Click to expand...
Are you suggesting that the answer to that trivia question will always be 'zero'?
Click to expand...
No. I am saying that it is a statisitical impossibility for Gates to achieve the feat this season.
 
Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero
Click to expand...
Are you suggesting that the answer to that trivia question will always be 'zero'?
Click to expand...
So if gates only gets 9 TD, we shouldn't draft him?
Click to expand...
He will not score 9 TD's so its a moot point....Gonzo only scored twice last year as a result of OL issues. The Chargers have a new QB, so Gates could be in for an even worse collapse than Gonzalez had last season.
 
Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero
Click to expand...
Are you suggesting that the answer to that trivia question will always be 'zero'?
Click to expand...
No. I am saying that it is a statisitical impossibility for Gates to achieve the feat this season.
Click to expand...
Either you or I don't understand how to apply this term.
 
Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero
Click to expand...
Are you suggesting that the answer to that trivia question will always be 'zero'?
Click to expand...
No. I am saying that it is a statisitical impossibility for Gates to achieve the feat this season.
Click to expand...
Either you or I don't understand how to apply this term.
Click to expand...
I've run the numbers. It can't happen. Trust me.
 
Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero
Click to expand...
Are you suggesting that the answer to that trivia question will always be 'zero'?
Click to expand...
No. I am saying that it is a statisitical impossibility for Gates to achieve the feat this season.
Click to expand...
Either you or I don't understand how to apply this term.
Click to expand...
I've run the numbers. It can't happen. Trust me.
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
 
The bottom line is that I don't think anyone will find a valid comparison that can be used as a predictor. And even if someone did find a couple, it would still be a sample set too small to be useful.
Click to expand...
Look, I understand that Gates is a special player. But it's intellectually dishonest to discount all comparisons to changes in the situations of other TEs because they're not exactly like Gates' situation. Here's another: Ozzie Newsome had 89 receptions and 1001 yards in 1984 with Paul McDonald at QB. In 1985, with Bernie Kosar at QB (rated more highly than Rivers), Newsome had 62 receptions for 711 yards. In almost every example that can be found, a change in situation for a top TE resulted in a drop in production for that TE.

If you believe that Rivers will throw for 3500 yards and 27 TDs (which San Diego has done each of the past two years), it's possible to project 1000+ and 10+ for Gates. But it seems more prudent to project a drop in the passing numbers for both San Diego and Gates. I think you'll find the number of first-year starters who threw for 3500 and 27 is vanishingly small, even if they weren't rookies.

 
QB is not a position that is plug and play, so Rivers should really hurt Gates this season. Gates has had two of the best FF seasons ever for a TE...but Brees was his QB. Now the Chargers have a complete unknown at QB, a very difficult schedule, and no other weapons in the passing game to take the heat off of Gates. Gonzo, Heap, Crumpler & Shockey should all have better years than Gates. Better off letting someone else grab him and go for a guy like McMichael or Witten later on if you can't get one of the big four.

55 Rec.

673 Yards

5 TD's
Click to expand...
This adds up to 97 fantasy points. FWIW, since 1970 no TE that scored at least 150 fantasy points has fallen below 100 fantasy points scored the following season with the caveat that they played the whole season. (Basically, a couple of guys didn't repeat due to injury.)IMO, if Gates is healthy he will do a fair amount better than this no matter how many possible explanations that could be presented.

Gates is still the #1 receiving option in San Diego, and as I've posted in other threads, the prime receiver in the past has not typically suffered a SEVERE dropoff in production with a new QB. Whether the person actually catching the ball is a "WR" or a "TE" is inconsequencial in my book.

The reason this is so problematic for people is that over the years, not many teams had a TE as their top receiver. Many people have pointed out that an inexperienced TE has a tendancy to focus in on his prime target as a security blanket. Who would it be in SD if not Gates? LT? McCardell?

While I agree that Gates' numbers will most likely drop, IMO a 57% decline seems a bit excessive if he's healthy.

 
The bottom line is that I don't think anyone will find a valid comparison that can be used as a predictor.  And even if someone did find a couple, it would still be a sample set too small to be useful.
Click to expand...
Look, I understand that Gates is a special player. But it's intellectually dishonest to discount all comparisons to changes in the situations of other TEs because they're not exactly like Gates' situation. Here's another: Ozzie Newsome had 89 receptions and 1001 yards in 1984 with Paul McDonald at QB. In 1985, with Bernie Kosar at QB (rated more highly than Rivers), Newsome had 62 receptions for 711 yards. In almost every example that can be found, a change in situation for a top TE resulted in a drop in production for that TE.

If you believe that Rivers will throw for 3500 yards and 27 TDs (which San Diego has done each of the past two years), it's possible to project 1000+ and 10+ for Gates. But it seems more prudent to project a drop in the passing numbers for both San Diego and Gates. I think you'll find the number of first-year starters who threw for 3500 and 27 is vanishingly small, even if they weren't rookies.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
For those clamoring for similar examples involving Top TE, I had this to add in one of the other Gates threads . . .

Todd Christensen was the #1 fantasy TE with Jim Plunkett and the Raiders switched to Marc Wilson who had played sparingly and Chistensen still was the #1 TE.

Ozzie Newsome was a Top 3 TE with Brian Sipe and utilized Paul McDonald at QB for a year. Newsome ranked 2nd.

Tony Gonzalez was the #1 TE with Elvis Grbac and was again with Trent Green.

Wesley Walls was Top 3 with Kerry Collins and Steve Beuerlein.

Keith Jackson was a Top 2 TE with Randall Cunningham and Jim McMahon in PHI.

Steve Jordan was Top 5 for several years with Tommy Kramer, Wade Wilson, and Rich Gannon.

And as I mentioned above, if we open things up to a team's #1 receiver (at any position), I don't think we would see that player falling off a cliff with a newbie QB.

Recent examples of of the top of my head include:

Randy Moss

Chad Johnson

Torry Holt

Boldin/Fitzgerald

Hines Ward

Rod Smith

Joey Galloway

Etc.

Some of these guys switched QB mid season to relatively unknown QB commodites and still did not slow down.

 
It doesn't matter to me if he finishes as the TE 1 or TE 3, the main point to consider is value based on his current ADP of 27 (TE 1).

I personally predicted:

850 yards and 7td's.

Let's even go so far as to say he finishes the year as the best TE.

Drafting him at or before his current ADP of 27 is a mistake in my opinion. I don't see as much value this year.

I'll be looking at getting either 2 RB's and 1 WR or 1 RB and 2 WR's with my first 3 picks.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero
Click to expand...
Are you suggesting that the answer to that trivia question will always be 'zero'?
Click to expand...
No. I am saying that it is a statisitical impossibility for Gates to achieve the feat this season.
Click to expand...
Either you or I don't understand how to apply this term.
Click to expand...
it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.see also Tiki Barber

 
80/856/8

he takes a slight step back with Rivers, but not huge. i think Rivers is in for a decent season.

 
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