5617 replies to this topic

[Jeff Pasquino]

Welcome to Trader Joe's

The One-Stop Shop for Trading

Hosted by Jeff Pasquino

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", a new section of the Assistant Coach Forum. I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quick as I can. Other commentaries are welcome, but I will do my very best to answer the questions asked here in this forum.

This thread will be used during the year by myself to discuss both trade strategy and also individual questions. Each week I'll be taking some of the best questions and incorporating them into a column for the site. I'll also add some trade strategy talk in each weekly column.

As for the format, the questions can be on any topic within your league, but I would advise you that the more general the question, the more applicable it becomes to everyone and thus it is more beneficial to all. The "Who should I trade" questions are still welcome (as long as they follow the format outlined below), but if you'd like to see your question in my column, strategy and/or trade philosophy is highly recommended.

For example:

Team / league specific question:

"I can keep three players. I have Tiki Barber, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Terrell Owens. Who do you recommend?"

The better way to generalize the question, yet still get your answer:

"I have three Top 10 running backs (Barber, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson) and a Top 10 WR (Terrell Owens), but I can only keep three. Is it better to keep three running backs, or should I keep a top shelf WR and two backs?"

I would request that you include the following regarding your trade questions:

• Type of league (Dynasty, Keeper, Contract, Auction, Redraft, other)
• Starting Roster (positions you play each week)
• Scoring format
• Number of teams in your league
• Roster size
• Regarding keepers - if you ask a "who should I keep" question, please note the "penalty", if any, for keeping a player (i.e. a draft pick)
• Regarding a trade - post the other team(s) roster(s) of the teams with which you are negotiating
• Any other pertinent info that would help me to help you
• Please please PLEASE cut and paste your sig rosters in your post. I answer many questions at once and can't see the sigs.... TIA.
  

This is going to be an open discussion so don't be shy.

However, please, no links to other threads.

I'll also point out some other threads along the way that may aid you in becoming a better trader. That is one of the toughest parts of fantasy football, and as always, Footballguys are here to help.

Let's go - Trader Joe's is open for business.

---------

Added September 3rd, 2006: The Dynasty Calculator and the Article for it.

Post 238 ends Week 3 (for the column).
Post 294 ends Week 4.
Post 367 ends Week 5.
Post 437 ends Week 6.
Post 511 ends Week 7.
Post 578 ends Week 8.
Post 644 ends Week 9.
Post 707 ends Week 10.
Post 776 ends Week 11.
Post 870 ends Week 12.
Post 896 ends Week 13.
Post 932 ends Week 14.

Tons of off-season questions taken for the next, oh, 500 or so posts.

2007 Season Begins with Post 1473 (Unofficial start - Sept. 1st, 2007).
Post 1516 ends Week 2 (for the column).
Post 1553 ends Week 3 (for the column).
Post 1616 ends Week 4.
Post 1657 ends Week 5.
Post 1723 ends Week 6.
Post 1758 ends Week 7.
Post 1805 ends Week 8.
Post 1851 ends Week 9.
Post 1894 ends Week 10.
Post 1969 ends Week 11.
Post 2003 ends Week 12.

[wannabee]

I will get this party started:

What is the value of TJ Duckett in non-PPR leagues?

Is he a buy low with thoughts of being a FA in a year?

Is he hold because we do not know how the Falcon RBs situation will shake out with Dunn and Norwood and who will have what role?

Or, is he a sell since they drafted Norwood and no one will really want him next year?

[Jeff Pasquino]

I will get this party started:

What is the value of TJ Duckett in non-PPR leagues?

Is he a buy low with thoughts of being a FA in a year?

Is he hold because we do not know how the Falcon RBs situation will shake out with Dunn and Norwood and who will have what role?

Or, is he a sell since they drafted Norwood and no one will really want him next year?

Wannabee,

Thanks for the question.

Duckett's value is a big ol' question mark as for a redraft league, and further murky in dynasty leagues.

Interestingly enough, we have him in the 40-55 range on both rankings, so that only adds to the confusion.

On the plus side, Duckett is the only other proven RB on Atlanta after Dunn (and some would say Vick, too). TJ was rumored to be on the block and heading to Pittsburgh to reprise the Bettis role in that offense, but that seems dead in the water.

Duckett's future value is cloudy. His value right now is mostly as a backup / handcuff to Dunn, with the hopes of stealing TDs (31 in four years in Atlanta on just 552 carries).

If I were the owner of Duckett, I'd shop him to the owner of Dunn and see if you can get some value (a player or a pick) for him. Other than that I'd hold him and hope for a trade or a change of the pecking order, or at least more TD thefts.

[wannabee]

Jeff, since you are an Eagles fan, how do you see the see the WR situation in Philly shaking out?

Also, how do you see the pass yards broken up?

[brakeyawself]

I'm making a trade to get E. Manning for Culpeppeper. Im trying to send J. Harrington also. My other QB is Rex Grossman and B. Griese. I dont have much roster room. And Mike Bell is still on the WW. Ive been thinking about taking a gamble on him. I'm planning on dropping Griese to grab Bell, and hopeing both Grossman and Bell make it through the pre-season on the first team to start the regular season.

Wise move? Foolish move?

I guess it depends a lot on the Bears QB competition? So what are your thoughts on that.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Jeff, since you are an Eagles fan, how do you see the see the WR situation in Philly shaking out?

Also, how do you see the pass yards broken up?

So as I can be self-consistent, here is my post from the Reggie Brown Spotlight.

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

McNabb averages over 200 yards passing a game for the past 6 seasons. That's 3200+ yards passing at a minimum this year, assuming 16 starts.

Who will he throw to?

Reggie, LJ Smith and Westy seem the logical choices.

Westy hasn't broken 750 yards receiving, ever. LJ hasn't broken 700.

Give them both career years at 800 each, and 50% is still missing, or 1600 yards, at a minimum.

Brown is the clear #1 WR in town, so I have to give him 50% of the remainder at a minimum. That's 800 yards on the DOWNSIDE.

The upside is easily 1,000+.

I say the truth lies somewhere between 800 and 1100 yards, and I lean more towards the 4-digit number.

I project 75 receptions, 970 yards, 8 TD.

That's 145 FBG points, 220 PPR points. That puts him as #18 WR last season (on par with Eddie Kennison) for FBG, and about TJ Housh in a PPR league. Top 20 either way.

So let's go with 3400 passing yards for McNabb.

WR - Reggie Brown - 970
TE - LJ Smith - 750
RB - Westy - 750

That's 2470 yards right there.

Add some for Gaffney (say 300), Avant (150), Lewis (150) and Pinkston (200 if healthy) and that's 800 more. A few more to Schobel (say 100) at TE2 and that gets you in the 3400 yard ballpark.

As for how it will shake out - the numbers tell you. Westy / LJ / Brown are the 3 main targets, and it is WR2 by committee.

[Jeff Pasquino]

I'm making a trade to get E. Manning for Culpeppeper. Im trying to send J. Harrington also. My other QB is Rex Grossman and B. Griese. I dont have much roster room. And Mike Bell is still on the WW. Ive been thinking about taking a gamble on him. I'm planning on dropping Griese to grab Bell, and hopeing both Grossman and Bell make it through the pre-season on the first team to start the regular season.

Wise move? Foolish move?

I guess it depends a lot on the Bears QB competition? So what are your thoughts on that.

Hi brake,

That all depends on the rest of your team. You say you have a short bench, but you're carrying 4 QBs (Harrington, Culpepper, Griese and Grossman).

Without more knowledge of your league and team and all that (see Post 1), I'm shooting in the dark.

I'll assume 1 QB start. I'll also assume standard FBG scoring (performance, no PPR) and go from there.

Manning for CPep and Harrington is a good trade if you need room and like Manning. I'm assuming (again) this is a keeper / dynasty team. Manning's a good value there.

Trade Harrington and CPep for Eli and pick up Mike Bell that way. See how Chicago shakes QB out and keep both if you have to - now you have room.

[wannabee]

Jeff, since you are an Eagles fan, how do you see the see the WR situation in Philly shaking out?

Also, how do you see the pass yards broken up?

So as I can be self-consistent, here is my post from the Reggie Brown Spotlight.

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

McNabb averages over 200 yards passing a game for the past 6 seasons. That's 3200+ yards passing at a minimum this year, assuming 16 starts.

Who will he throw to?

Reggie, LJ Smith and Westy seem the logical choices.

Westy hasn't broken 750 yards receiving, ever. LJ hasn't broken 700.

Give them both career years at 800 each, and 50% is still missing, or 1600 yards, at a minimum.

Brown is the clear #1 WR in town, so I have to give him 50% of the remainder at a minimum. That's 800 yards on the DOWNSIDE.

The upside is easily 1,000+.

I say the truth lies somewhere between 800 and 1100 yards, and I lean more towards the 4-digit number.

I project 75 receptions, 970 yards, 8 TD.

That's 145 FBG points, 220 PPR points. That puts him as #18 WR last season (on par with Eddie Kennison) for FBG, and about TJ Housh in a PPR league. Top 20 either way.

So let's go with 3400 passing yards for McNabb.

WR - Reggie Brown - 970
TE - LJ Smith - 750
RB - Westy - 750

That's 2470 yards right there.

Add some for Gaffney (say 300), Avant (150), Lewis (150) and Pinkston (200 if healthy) and that's 800 more. A few more to Schobel (say 100) at TE2 and that gets you in the 3400 yard ballpark.

As for how it will shake out - the numbers tell you. Westy / LJ / Brown are the 3 main targets, and it is WR2 by committee.

do you think Baskett can emerge as the WR2?

[brakeyawself]

Sorry, here is league scoring. 16 team h2h dynasty. We split our rosters between an AFC/NFC team to start the season. Im MIA/CHI. I have since made some roster moves dropping players and adding anyone here not on MIA/CHi from the waiver wire.
and my roster. ANd yes, its IDP dynasty, here is my team now. (Ive all ready added bell for griese but can still get him back as no one has touched him yet.)

QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, K, D, D, DB, DB, DL, DL, DL, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN
Stat Categories: Completions (1)
Passing Yards (20 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (10)
Interceptions (-3)
Rushing Attempts (1)
Rushing Yards (4 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (10)
Receptions (1)
Reception Yards (4 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (10)
Return Touchdowns (20)
2-Point Conversions (3)
Fumbles Lost (-3)
Offensive Fumble Return TD (20)
Field Goals 0-19 Yards (5)
Field Goals 20-29 Yards (6)
Field Goals 30-39 Yards (8)
Field Goals 40-49 Yards (12)
Field Goals 50+ Yards (15)
Point After Attempt Made (2)
Tackle Solo (3)
Tackle Assist (1)
Sack (10)
Interception (15)
Fumble Force (15)
Fumble Recovery (10)
Touchdown (20)
Safety (20)
Pass Defended (2)
Block Kick (20)

1. QB D. Culpepper MIA
2. QB R. Grossman CHI
3. WR V. Jackson SD
4. RB R. Brown MIA
5. RB T. Jones CHI
6. RB C. Benson CHI
7. RB A. Peterson Chi
8. WR C. Chambers MIA
9. WR M. Booker MIA
10. WR D. Gabriel OAK
11. WR M. Muhammad CHI
12. WR M. Bradley CHI
13. TE R. McMichael MIA
14. TE L. Pope ARI
15. K O. Mare MIA
16. DL L. Hill Sea
17. DL B. Urlacher CHI
18. DL L. Briggs CHI
19. DL Z. Thomas MIA
20. DL J. Taylor MIA
21. DL C. Crowder MIA
22. DB N. Vasher CHI
23. DB M. Brown CHI
24. DB C. Tillman CHI
25. QB J. Harrington MIA

Extended Bench:
1. RB M. Bell Den
2. QB A. Walter OAK
3. RB R. Williams MIA (I think they still own his rights.)
4. DB J. Allen MIA
5. DB B. Pollard KC

[Jeff Pasquino]

Jeff, since you are an Eagles fan, how do you see the see the WR situation in Philly shaking out?

Also, how do you see the pass yards broken up?

So as I can be self-consistent, here is my post from the Reggie Brown Spotlight.

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

McNabb averages over 200 yards passing a game for the past 6 seasons. That's 3200+ yards passing at a minimum this year, assuming 16 starts.

Who will he throw to?

Reggie, LJ Smith and Westy seem the logical choices.

Westy hasn't broken 750 yards receiving, ever. LJ hasn't broken 700.

Give them both career years at 800 each, and 50% is still missing, or 1600 yards, at a minimum.

Brown is the clear #1 WR in town, so I have to give him 50% of the remainder at a minimum. That's 800 yards on the DOWNSIDE.

The upside is easily 1,000+.

I say the truth lies somewhere between 800 and 1100 yards, and I lean more towards the 4-digit number.

I project 75 receptions, 970 yards, 8 TD.

That's 145 FBG points, 220 PPR points. That puts him as #18 WR last season (on par with Eddie Kennison) for FBG, and about TJ Housh in a PPR league. Top 20 either way.

So let's go with 3400 passing yards for McNabb.

WR - Reggie Brown - 970
TE - LJ Smith - 750
RB - Westy - 750

That's 2470 yards right there.

Add some for Gaffney (say 300), Avant (150), Lewis (150) and Pinkston (200 if healthy) and that's 800 more. A few more to Schobel (say 100) at TE2 and that gets you in the 3400 yard ballpark.

As for how it will shake out - the numbers tell you. Westy / LJ / Brown are the 3 main targets, and it is WR2 by committee.

do you think Baskett can emerge as the WR2?

LOL - I did forget Hank didn't I.....

I see Hank as an end zone fade target guy. He's big. But I don't know if he can latch on as a Top 5 WR guy. I see him and/or Bloom on the development squad.

If Hank Baskett makes the team on the 53 man roster, I would say you could stick him in for Lewis.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Sorry, here is league scoring. 16 team h2h dynasty. We split our rosters between an AFC/NFC team to start the season. Im MIA/CHI. I have since made some roster moves dropping players and adding anyone here not on MIA/CHi from the waiver wire.
and my roster. ANd yes, its IDP dynasty, here is my team now. (Ive all ready added bell for griese but can still get him back as no one has touched him yet.)

QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, K, D, D, DB, DB, DL, DL, DL, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN
Stat Categories: Completions (1)
Passing Yards (20 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (10)
Interceptions (-3)
Rushing Attempts (1)
Rushing Yards (4 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (10)
Receptions (1)
Reception Yards (4 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (10)
Return Touchdowns (20)
2-Point Conversions (3)
Fumbles Lost (-3)
Offensive Fumble Return TD (20)
Field Goals 0-19 Yards (5)
Field Goals 20-29 Yards (6)
Field Goals 30-39 Yards (8)
Field Goals 40-49 Yards (12)
Field Goals 50+ Yards (15)
Point After Attempt Made (2)
Tackle Solo (3)
Tackle Assist (1)
Sack (10)
Interception (15)
Fumble Force (15)
Fumble Recovery (10)
Touchdown (20)
Safety (20)
Pass Defended (2)
Block Kick (20)

1. QB D. Culpepper MIA
2. QB R. Grossman CHI
3. WR V. Jackson SD
4. RB R. Brown MIA
5. RB T. Jones CHI
6. RB C. Benson CHI
7. RB A. Peterson Chi
8. WR C. Chambers MIA
9. WR M. Booker MIA
10. WR D. Gabriel OAK
11. WR M. Muhammad CHI
12. WR M. Bradley CHI
13. TE R. McMichael MIA
14. TE L. Pope ARI
15. K O. Mare MIA
16. DL L. Hill Sea
17. DL B. Urlacher CHI
18. DL L. Briggs CHI
19. DL Z. Thomas MIA
20. DL J. Taylor MIA
21. DL C. Crowder MIA
22. DB N. Vasher CHI
23. DB M. Brown CHI
24. DB C. Tillman CHI
25. QB J. Harrington MIA

Extended Bench:
1. RB M. Bell Den
2. QB A. Walter OAK
3. RB R. Williams MIA (I think they still own his rights.)
4. DB J. Allen MIA
5. DB B. Pollard KC

In that case, with IDP and so many starters, QB isn't as big as a priority. You have 16 starters, so QB is likely to be 10% or less of your scoring (even though you have some crazy scoring rules - 10 pts / TD??).

Culpepper and Harrington for Eli is still a good trade (due to Eli's youth).

With the ability to start 3 RBs, getting a 3rd starter does make sense if Mike Bell does pan out.

If you're unsure at QB, look to the Waiver Wire (WW) to see what's available. I'm not thrilled with either Chicago QB, and you have 6 DL. That's a place to cut back a little, since you have 9 to start 7, and that's usually easier to fill on the waiver wire.

Also - for dynasty purposes, consider a K upgrade.
Good luck.

[brakeyawself]

Hey thanks for the reply! great info, has clued me in to a few things i wasnt noticing.
I had the choice for Gould in Chi over Mare, he's a lot younger I should probably just grab him instead.
And the full trade is
Culpepper, Harrington, Lance Briggs, Jay Taylor
for

Eli manning, KC DL Jared Allen, and Osi Umenyora.

I should probably ask for G. Wilson from him instead of Allen eh? Since I have so many DL and am working on trading Z thomas, M. Brown, and Vasher.

Edited by brakeyawself, 07 August 2006 - 02:06 PM.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hey thanks for the reply! great info, has clued me in to a few things i wasnt noticing.
I had the choice for Gould in Chi over Mare, he's a lot younger I should probably just grab him instead.
And the full trade is
Culpepper, Harrington, Lance Briggs, Jay Taylor
for

Eli manning, KC DL Jared Allen, and Osi Umenyora.

I should probably ask for G. Wilson from him instead of Allen eh? Since I have so many DL and am working on trading Z thomas, M. Brown, and Vasher.

Osi's a stud. Wilson is probably worth more than Allen.

[HEhateME]

Keeper League. 16 Teams, can keep up to 3 each year. Penalty is losing a pick in each of the first 3 rounds for each keeper (keep 3, then don't pick in first 3 rounds and start picking in round 4). 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, K, DEF Team. 17 man rosters. Standard Performance scoring. .5 per catch for WRs and TEs, not RBs.

We have a 2-round rookie draft in 1 week. I have pick 1.1 (Bush) through an earlier trade. Rookies don't count toward keepers. Current keepers are Alexander, Edge, and Culpepper (maybe if the knee is OK). Wondering if any of these make me better.

1. Edge and 1.3 rookie pick (Maroney or Deangelo. Addai will go 1.2 here) for Steven Jackson. Other owner also keeps Portis and Eli Manning (loves Eli). He likes the rookie RB crop.
2. Edge for Westbrook and Boldin. Would not keep Culpepper here. Other owner has Lamont Jordan as his other keeper.
3. Alexander for Cadillac Williams and Mcgahee. Other owner has Ronnie Brown and rookie pick 1.4.

Thanks for your time. Your work is good.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Keeper League. 16 Teams, can keep up to 3 each year. Penalty is losing a pick in each of the first 3 rounds for each keeper (keep 3, then don't pick in first 3 rounds and start picking in round 4). 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, K, DEF Team. 17 man rosters. Standard Performance scoring. .5 per catch for WRs and TEs, not RBs.

We have a 2-round rookie draft in 1 week. I have pick 1.1 (Bush) through an earlier trade. Rookies don't count toward keepers. Current keepers are Alexander, Edge, and Culpepper (maybe if the knee is OK). Wondering if any of these make me better.

1. Edge and 1.3 rookie pick (Maroney or Deangelo. Addai will go 1.2 here) for Steven Jackson. Other owner also keeps Portis and Eli Manning (loves Eli). He likes the rookie RB crop.
2. Edge for Westbrook and Boldin. Would not keep Culpepper here. Other owner has Lamont Jordan as his other keeper.
3. Alexander for Cadillac Williams and Mcgahee. Other owner has Ronnie Brown and rookie pick 1.4.

Thanks for your time. Your work is good.

HEhateME,

First, thanks for the question and the kind words.

Second, nice question (and well formed, thanks).

In order:

1. Edge / 1.03 for Steven Jackson. I like that trade, simply because Edge is starting to slip IMHO in both talent and his situation. He has played nearly 100 NFL games and has had 2500 touches, a mark that has indicated a decline for RBs in the past. He is still under 30, but the tread is wearing thin.

SJax on the other hand is just getting started. He should put up impressive numbers behind a better O-line, and he should outpace Edge this season and certainly do better over the next 3-5 years.

1.03 is a crapshoot as to if you'd get a player of the caliber (or in the same role) as SJax. I'd take DeAngelo there, but Carolina is far from a lock for him going forward. While I like him, he has the same number of NFL career carries as I do.

2. Edge for Westy and Boldin. I love Boldin - let's start there. The downgrade from Westy to Edge is not as big as some might think, despite the lack of PPR. I do love having Boldin, a Top 5 WR when healthy. As you stated earlier, this would give you SA, Westy and Boldin, two Top 10 RBs (Westy borderline, I know, but I think he can be listed on the fringe) and a Top 5 WR. That's hard to pass up.

3. SA for Caddy and McGahee. No dice. I don't like giving a Top 3 RB for two players of the next tier (or lower). Caddy is a Top 10 guy likely this year, but McGahee will likely struggle to be Top 20 in a miserable Buffalo Bills offense.

Of the 3 scenarios, I like #2. You wind up with 3 starting RBs and WRs, all at or near the top of the list, which is solid.

Finally - HEhateME is now a Raider (aka Rod Smart - Because you guys always want to know ).

[HEhateME]

Jeff - Thanks a lot for the answers. Good stuff as usual. One last question. Of the options here - do you think I'm better to just stand pat with Alexander, Edge, and Culpepper (with Bush coming to me in rookie draft)?

[Jeff Pasquino]

Jeff - Thanks a lot for the answers. Good stuff as usual. One last question. Of the options here - do you think I'm better to just stand pat with Alexander, Edge, and Culpepper (with Bush coming to me in rookie draft)?

You're right, I didn't complete the thought.

I'd rather have Boldin and Westy vs. Edge and Culpepper. With 3 keepers, few QBs will be kept. The pool of talent under center will be deep.

[JEWMAH9701]

8-Team/1-Keeper League, Basic Performance Scoring

I Give: LT
I Get: Draft Picks #3, #8, #30

I already have picks #6 and #11. So, this trade would give my team a very solid core for this season. The team I would trade LT to has already traded his keeper this year. So, LT would be his only keeper. What do you think?

At #3 I would get either Caddy, Brown, Rudi or LaMont
At #8 I would get either CJ, McGahee, Westbrook, DD, Holt
At #30 I would get either Roy Williams, Droughns, Chester, etc.

[Jeff Pasquino]

8-Team/1-Keeper League, Basic Performance Scoring

I Give: LT
I Get: Draft Picks #3, #8, #30

I already have picks #6 and #11. So, this trade would give my team a very solid core for this season. The team I would trade LT to has already traded his keeper this year. So, LT would be his only keeper. What do you think?

At #3 I would get either Caddy, Brown, Rudi or LaMont
At #8 I would get either CJ, McGahee, Westbrook, DD, Holt
At #30 I would get either Roy Williams, Droughns, Chester, etc.

As far as your question, I'd turn it on its head and look at it another way.

Let's say you trade LT and you get those 3 players (just for argument's sake, I'll take 2 RBs and a WR). So you have Caddy, CJ and Droughns instead of LT, and you still have the #6 and #11 picks.

You would have 3 picks in the Top 8 plus #11 and #30.

Given that there's no more than 8 players kept, that is a pretty good foundation - except you don't have a Top 3 RB.

So - now look at it if you do nothing. You have LT, #6 and #11. Based on your list for #8, you'd likely get two of those guys (say CJ and Dominick Davis or Holt) and still have LT.

That's your basis of comparison. Would you want LT and two guys from your #8 list, or would you prefer to have one from your #8 list and one each from the #3 and the #30 list?

List both scenarios out:

Keep LT:
LT
CJ
Holt/DD

Trade LT:
Caddy
CJ
Droughns

So again, you're looking at LT and Holt/DD vs. Caddy and Droughns (CJ cancels out). I would probably look towards standing pat.

Thanks for the question and good luck.

[urbanhack]

:reported:

[Jeff Pasquino]

:reported:

Hack,

Thanks for the comment - I'm aware of the store, and somehow I don't think we are in direct competition.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Some thoughts to see what everyone thinks about trades:

Do you find them tough to pull off?

Are they especially tough in redraft leagues? Why are they easier in others?

How can you get owners to trade with you?

What kind of reputation do you have in your league? How can you change it?



Note: Some of these are rhetorical questions that I will address on a weekly basis as the season gets going, but they are open topics for discussion. This thread is about not just your personal trades, but trading in general.

[Keys Myaths]

I'll help with some of these, JP.

Do you find them tough to pull off?

Not at first, but owners in my leagues are becoming wary of me. They realize that nearly every trade I've ever pulled off seems to work in my favor, so that's working to my disadvantage now. They're a lot more hesitant, the "What does he know that I don't?" mentality seems to play a lot.

Are they especially tough in redraft leagues? Why are they easier in others?

I think they're tougher in redraft leagues, just because everyone has the same goal--getting the most points for THAT particular year. There's a lot more leeway in keeper/dynasty leagues, because as owners have different goals, trading become a more integral part of what they're doing.

How can you get owners to trade with you?

With my reputation (which I answered in the first question--and this answers your last question), I've taken a different approach, which seems to work.

With every trade I propose, I give a detailed note as to how, detail by detail, the trade helps BOTH teams. I used to do the same thing, but just for their team, but I think it's VERY important, as your reputation grows, to give both sides fair due. If you don't, then people will think you're trying to pull one over on them. By explaining WHY you want to do this trade, that gives them some comfort, and quite honestly, makes the trade easier to pull off.

[Jeff Pasquino]

I'll help with some of these, JP.

Do you find them tough to pull off?

Not at first, but owners in my leagues are becoming wary of me. They realize that nearly every trade I've ever pulled off seems to work in my favor, so that's working to my disadvantage now. They're a lot more hesitant, the "What does he know that I don't?" mentality seems to play a lot.

Are they especially tough in redraft leagues? Why are they easier in others?

I think they're tougher in redraft leagues, just because everyone has the same goal--getting the most points for THAT particular year. There's a lot more leeway in keeper/dynasty leagues, because as owners have different goals, trading become a more integral part of what they're doing.

How can you get owners to trade with you?

With my reputation (which I answered in the first question--and this answers your last question), I've taken a different approach, which seems to work.

With every trade I propose, I give a detailed note as to how, detail by detail, the trade helps BOTH teams. I used to do the same thing, but just for their team, but I think it's VERY important, as your reputation grows, to give both sides fair due. If you don't, then people will think you're trying to pull one over on them. By explaining WHY you want to do this trade, that gives them some comfort, and quite honestly, makes the trade easier to pull off.

Thanks Keys.

Good answers to all.

I'm hoping that everyone realizes how difficult trading is, and then after admitting that it is likely a weakness in their fantasy football experience, we'll work on how to address it and improve in that area.

One of the first things to note is that it is no longer about "me", it is "we". You HAVE to have a trade partner - otherwise there's no trade. You can't be a jerk and be a trader. It doesn't work. That doesn't mean you need to be a pushover either, but there are character traits and personas you can use to make yourself better in this area.

[Keys Myaths]

but there are character traits and personas you can use to make yourself better in this area.

I think this is one of the key points here.

Everyone likes the "smack talk" and the "bash other picks on draft day" mentality that seems to go around.

Rise above that. Seriously. You'll be AMAZED at how your trading opportunities significantly increase if you're just plain NICE to other people.

[The Gang Green]

Considering a pre-draft trade of picks: I have the #7 pick in a 12 team w/1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,K,D, high-performance, redraft, but I have NO 2nd round pick. My picks go #s 31, 42, 55, 66, 79, etc. I'll still have my 4th and 6th rounders. I traded my 2nd rounder last year for Steve Smith in week 10...he cooled off and I finished in second place.

Is this deal WORTH it to get the #9 overall pick for my 31, 55 and 108?

Or should I just stand pat and ride out the draft at my current position and suck it up?

Thanks in advance.

[Jeff Pasquino]

but there are character traits and personas you can use to make yourself better in this area.

I think this is one of the key points here.

Everyone likes the "smack talk" and the "bash other picks on draft day" mentality that seems to go around.

Rise above that. Seriously. You'll be AMAZED at how your trading opportunities significantly increase if you're just plain NICE to other people.

I agree with that sentiment, but you can jab at people that you have good relationships with. Just patch things up if it gets to heated.

Then steal his RBs .

[Jeff Pasquino]

Considering a pre-draft trade of picks: I have the #7 pick in a 12 team w/1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,K,D, high-performance, redraft, but I have NO 2nd round pick. My picks go #s 31, 42, 55, 66, 79, etc. I'll still have my 4th and 6th rounders. I traded my 2nd rounder last year for Steve Smith in week 10...he cooled off and I finished in second place.

Is this deal WORTH it to get the #9 overall pick for my 31, 55 and 108?

Or should I just stand pat and ride out the draft at my current position and suck it up?

Thanks in advance.

Ok, redraft.

So you have:
7
31
42
55
66
79
...(84, 90, 103)....
108

You're trading 31, 55, 108 for 9?

The FBG Calculator says "NO", but not by much. (1489 vs 1438, or -3%)

1. The question I would pose back to the other owner is what will he do with 3 picks? Won't he be "over the roster limit" on draft day?

I'd try and get two 100+ draft picks back from him.

Use the FBG calculator math to your advantage there as well (if need be - don't need to tell him about the calculator if you don't have to ).

A pick in the 150s and another later on balances out the trade and the rosters.

2. Just on an intrinsic value here, I like the ability to get 2 of the Top 10 players. Yes depth will be hurt as a result, but come on. You're a footballguy here. You will know about WR60s and 70s that will outperform their value and be fine for a weekly starter plug in value.

I don't know how "sharky" your league is, but imagine this draft:

7 - LaMont Jordan
9 - Ronnie Brown
31
42 - Donald Driver (ADP in mid 40s)
55
66 - Rod Smith (high 70s)
79 - Reggie Brown (80s)
...(84, 90, 103).... QB/TE/Best Player
108

That looks good to me.

You could go WR at 9 and pick up Marion Barber or DeAngelo Williams later in place of Rod Smith as well.

There are lots of ways to go, but locking up 2 of Top 10 and sharking at the deeper rounds is the way to go.

Good luck.

[Micelli]

Hi Jeff,

While this isn't a trade question...i thought i'd ask while this thread hasn't started jumping yet. Its more of a draft strategy question.

I'm joining a new league this year and haven't ever been in this format and was wondering if you have any experience with it and some draft startegies for me.

It's a standard FBG scoring league (6 pt all TDs). The only difference is that there are no requied TE's. Each week you start 4 WR/TE. So I can start 4 TE, 4 WR, or a mix.

I was wondering if my draft strategy should be any different? Since each week there will be 48 WRs starting...should i start loading up on the more talented WRs early? Maybe Draft RB, WR, WR, WR?

Interested to hear if you have an experience with this format and would appreciate any advice you could give. Thanks

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hi Jeff,

While this isn't a trade question...i thought i'd ask while this thread hasn't started jumping yet. Its more of a draft strategy question.

I'm joining a new league this year and haven't ever been in this format and was wondering if you have any experience with it and some draft startegies for me.

It's a standard FBG scoring league (6 pt all TDs). The only difference is that there are no requied TE's. Each week you start 4 WR/TE. So I can start 4 TE, 4 WR, or a mix.

I was wondering if my draft strategy should be any different? Since each week there will be 48 WRs starting...should i start loading up on the more talented WRs early? Maybe Draft RB, WR, WR, WR?

Interested to hear if you have an experience with this format and would appreciate any advice you could give. Thanks

Hi Micelli,

Yes, "Trader Joe's" is in the first week and prior to its first column, so it is good timing.

Since you didn't mention it, I assume no PPR.

Therefore, you need to find TEs that will compete on the level of the Top 50 WRs. I'm assuming you'll want 7-9 on your squad, so that'll pretty much guarantee a TE.

I'd run the draft dominator and just mix in the TEs with the WRs - if you zero out the TE requirement the DD knows to lump TEs with WRs.

My gut would tell me that about the Top 10-15 TEs will be drafted. With that amount of depth, Top TEs are still valuable.

I did a fast mock and the Top 10 WRs are gone by end of Round 3, and 30-35 are gone by Round 6 with most of Round 6 WRs. Gates goes about Round 4.

Play with the DD a bit, but you will see what I mean.

Good luck.

[brakeyawself]

Hey hey. Another trade if you've got some great advice for me again
16 team idp dynasty.

Guy really wants Ronnie Brown from me. All he has that Im interested in are Fitz and Reggie Wayne. He's got Delhomme, McNair, Mark Clayton, Keyshawn and most of Baltimore and Carolinas roster. I would have traded Brown and somthing for Steve Smith and Deangelo Williams, but he traded them for Fitz and Wayne.
So, should I ask for Fitz and Wayne straight up? Or is there somthing better I could get? Or is that not enough for Ronnie Brown this year. I really wanted to stay deep at RB if possible. But Brown isnt really as proven as Fitz or Wayne and the possibility that he could bust or not be able to carry the load in MIA at least bothers me a little. So what do you think I should do? I got Mike Bell for insurence I guess but who knows if he'll be the starter come sept. and Ricky Williams for next year, if he actually comes back. Other than that, just the Chicago backfield. His only RB's are Mike Anderson and Jamal Lewis. I have a lot of WRs, but a lot of them are based on potential or aging.

QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, K, D, D, DB, DB, DL, DL, DL, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN
Stat Categories: Completions (1)
Passing Yards (20 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (10)
Interceptions (-3)
Rushing Attempts (1)
Rushing Yards (4 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (10)
Receptions (1)
Reception Yards (4 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (10)
Return Touchdowns (20)
2-Point Conversions (3)
Fumbles Lost (-3)
Offensive Fumble Return TD (20)
Field Goals 0-19 Yards (5)
Field Goals 20-29 Yards (6)
Field Goals 30-39 Yards (8)
Field Goals 40-49 Yards (12)
Field Goals 50+ Yards (15)
Point After Attempt Made (2)
Tackle Solo (3)
Tackle Assist (1)
Sack (10)
Interception (15)
Fumble Force (15)
Fumble Recovery (10)
Touchdown (20)
Safety (20)
Pass Defended (2)
Block Kick (20)

1. QB D. Culpepper MIA
2. QB R. Grossman CHI
3. WR V. Jackson SD
4. RB R. Brown MIA
5. RB T. Jones CHI
6. RB C. Benson CHI
7. RB A. Peterson Chi
8. WR C. Chambers MIA
9. WR M. Booker MIA
10. WR D. Gabriel OAK
11. WR M. Muhammad CHI
12. WR M. Bradley CHI
13. TE R. McMichael MIA
14. TE L. Pope ARI
15. WR P. Crayton
16. DL L. Hill Sea
17. DL B. Urlacher CHI
18. DL L. Briggs CHI
19. DL Z. Thomas MIA
20. DL J. Taylor MIA
21. DL C. Crowder MIA
22. DB N. Vasher CHI
23. DB M. Brown CHI
24. DB C. Tillman CHI
25. WR B. Marshall

Extended Bench:
1. RB M. Bell Den
2. QB A. Walter OAK
3. RB R. Williams MIA
4. DB J. Allen MIA
5. DB B. Pollard KC

Edited by brakeyawself, 11 August 2006 - 04:48 AM.

[Winning IS Everything]

Good morning Jeff. I have a tough trade offer to deal with. Here are the details:
10 team, 10 player keeper. 6 points for all TD with distance bonus. 5 points for 100 yards rush/rec combined and 1 per 10 after that. NO PPR. My roster (3 QB, 6 RB, 6WR, 2TE, etc.....):
QB: McNair, Garrard, Brad Johnson
RB: Jackson, R. Brown, McGahee, K. Jones, Benson, T. Jones
WR: Fitz, Chad Johnson, Burress, Matt Jones, A. Johnson, D. Bennett
TE: Shockey

I was offered pick 2.7 for Thomas Jones. There will not be much by way of RB there but I may get a decent QB or WR or use the pick in some other trade on draft day. Do I do this deal or follow the article on the site about just releasing Jones so someone else may "fall" to me at 1.10?

Thanks for your help!!!!

Edited by Winning IS Everything, 11 August 2006 - 05:02 AM.

[The Gang Green]

Considering a pre-draft trade of picks: I have the #7 pick in a 12 team w/1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,K,D, high-performance, redraft, but I have NO 2nd round pick. My picks go #s 31, 42, 55, 66, 79, etc. I'll still have my 4th and 6th rounders. I traded my 2nd rounder last year for Steve Smith in week 10...he cooled off and I finished in second place.

Is this deal WORTH it to get the #9 overall pick for my 31, 55 and 108?

Or should I just stand pat and ride out the draft at my current position and suck it up?

Thanks in advance.

Ok, redraft.

So you have:
7
31
42
55
66
79
...(84, 90, 103)....
108

You're trading 31, 55, 108 for 9?

The FBG Calculator says "NO", but not by much. (1489 vs 1438, or -3%)

1. The question I would pose back to the other owner is what will he do with 3 picks? Won't he be "over the roster limit" on draft day?

I'd try and get two 100+ draft picks back from him.

Use the FBG calculator math to your advantage there as well (if need be - don't need to tell him about the calculator if you don't have to ).

A pick in the 150s and another later on balances out the trade and the rosters.

2. Just on an intrinsic value here, I like the ability to get 2 of the Top 10 players. Yes depth will be hurt as a result, but come on. You're a footballguy here. You will know about WR60s and 70s that will outperform their value and be fine for a weekly starter plug in value.

I don't know how "sharky" your league is, but imagine this draft:

7 - LaMont Jordan
9 - Ronnie Brown
31
42 - Donald Driver (ADP in mid 40s)
55
66 - Rod Smith (high 70s)
79 - Reggie Brown (80s)
...(84, 90, 103).... QB/TE/Best Player
108

That looks good to me.

You could go WR at 9 and pick up Marion Barber or DeAngelo Williams later in place of Rod Smith as well.

There are lots of ways to go, but locking up 2 of Top 10 and sharking at the deeper rounds is the way to go.

Good luck.

Jeff,

Thanks for the quick response. However, I gave you a wrong # in the trade. It is my 10th round, #114. My bad! With that said, the FBG calc says "NO" but only (1465 vs 1438, or -2%). So I take it that I'm still looking good, and I WILL get his 17th and 18th rounders too.

You quoted ...(84, 90, 103).... QB/TE/Best Player, but I don't get 84 in my spot. I'll then have these #s (90, 103, 127). Can you comment on these instead? My thinking is maybe:

90 - Aaron Brooks (ADP 104)
103 - LJ Smith (ADP 103) or Ben Watson (ADP 121)
127 - Kevin Curtis (ADP 129), Sammie Parker (ADP 187), Ernest Wilford (ADP 130)

I'm leaning toward Wilford. What do you think? Thanks in advance.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hey hey. Another trade if you've got some great advice for me again
16 team idp dynasty.

Guy really wants Ronnie Brown from me. All he has that Im interested in are Fitz and Reggie Wayne. He's got Delhomme, McNair, Mark Clayton, Keyshawn and most of Baltimore and Carolinas roster. I would have traded Brown and somthing for Steve Smith and Deangelo Williams, but he traded them for Fitz and Wayne.
So, should I ask for Fitz and Wayne straight up? Or is there somthing better I could get? Or is that not enough for Ronnie Brown this year. I really wanted to stay deep at RB if possible. But Brown isnt really as proven as Fitz or Wayne and the possibility that he could bust or not be able to carry the load in MIA at least bothers me a little. So what do you think I should do? I got Mike Bell for insurence I guess but who knows if he'll be the starter come sept. and Ricky Williams for next year, if he actually comes back. Other than that, just the Chicago backfield. His only RB's are Mike Anderson and Jamal Lewis. I have a lot of WRs, but a lot of them are based on potential or aging.

QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, K, D, D, DB, DB, DL, DL, DL, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN
Stat Categories: Completions (1)
Passing Yards (20 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (10)
Interceptions (-3)
Rushing Attempts (1)
Rushing Yards (4 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (10)
Receptions (1)
Reception Yards (4 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (10)
Return Touchdowns (20)
2-Point Conversions (3)
Fumbles Lost (-3)
Offensive Fumble Return TD (20)
Field Goals 0-19 Yards (5)
Field Goals 20-29 Yards (6)
Field Goals 30-39 Yards (8)
Field Goals 40-49 Yards (12)
Field Goals 50+ Yards (15)
Point After Attempt Made (2)
Tackle Solo (3)
Tackle Assist (1)
Sack (10)
Interception (15)
Fumble Force (15)
Fumble Recovery (10)
Touchdown (20)
Safety (20)
Pass Defended (2)
Block Kick (20)

1. QB D. Culpepper MIA
2. QB R. Grossman CHI
3. WR V. Jackson SD
4. RB R. Brown MIA
5. RB T. Jones CHI
6. RB C. Benson CHI
7. RB A. Peterson Chi
8. WR C. Chambers MIA
9. WR M. Booker MIA
10. WR D. Gabriel OAK
11. WR M. Muhammad CHI
12. WR M. Bradley CHI
13. TE R. McMichael MIA
14. TE L. Pope ARI
15. WR P. Crayton
16. DL L. Hill Sea
17. DL B. Urlacher CHI
18. DL L. Briggs CHI
19. DL Z. Thomas MIA
20. DL J. Taylor MIA
21. DL C. Crowder MIA
22. DB N. Vasher CHI
23. DB M. Brown CHI
24. DB C. Tillman CHI
25. WR B. Marshall

Extended Bench:
1. RB M. Bell Den
2. QB A. Walter OAK
3. RB R. Williams MIA
4. DB J. Allen MIA
5. DB B. Pollard KC

You cannot expect two Top 10 WRs for a Top 10 RB. That's asking for too much.

He obviously loves those 2 WRs since he went out and got them - the shine isn't worn off of that trade yet, so he may want too much for either one. However, since he's in love with Brown, so you should be able to get one of them.

Go ahead and ask for both, but expect to (quickly) respond with one plus something. The other option is to offer a good WR and Brown for those 2. Keep in mind you'll be starting those 2 if you get them. I'd offer any of your WRs except for Chambers to go with Brown for those two.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Good morning Jeff. I have a tough trade offer to deal with. Here are the details:
10 team, 10 player keeper. 6 points for all TD with distance bonus. 5 points for 100 yards rush/rec combined and 1 per 10 after that. NO PPR. My roster (3 QB, 6 RB, 6WR, 2TE, etc.....):
QB: McNair, Garrard, Brad Johnson
RB: Jackson, R. Brown, McGahee, K. Jones, Benson, T. Jones
WR: Fitz, Chad Johnson, Burress, Matt Jones, A. Johnson, D. Bennett
TE: Shockey

I was offered pick 2.7 for Thomas Jones. There will not be much by way of RB there but I may get a decent QB or WR or use the pick in some other trade on draft day. Do I do this deal or follow the article on the site about just releasing Jones so someone else may "fall" to me at 1.10?

Thanks for your help!!!!

Hate to answer with questions, but:

1. Is the draft just rooks, or are vets in there too?
2. Starting requirements?

Somehow I don't think you start 6 RBs.....

Keep in mind, in a keeper league pick 1.01 is Pick 1 + the total number of keepers for value purposes. That would be Pick 101 overall in this league here for example.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Considering a pre-draft trade of picks: I have the #7 pick in a 12 team w/1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,K,D, high-performance, redraft, but I have NO 2nd round pick. My picks go #s 31, 42, 55, 66, 79, etc. I'll still have my 4th and 6th rounders. I traded my 2nd rounder last year for Steve Smith in week 10...he cooled off and I finished in second place.

Is this deal WORTH it to get the #9 overall pick for my 31, 55 and 108?

Or should I just stand pat and ride out the draft at my current position and suck it up?

Thanks in advance.

Ok, redraft.

So you have:
7
31
42
55
66
79
...(84, 90, 103)....
108

You're trading 31, 55, 108 for 9?

The FBG Calculator says "NO", but not by much. (1489 vs 1438, or -3%)

1. The question I would pose back to the other owner is what will he do with 3 picks? Won't he be "over the roster limit" on draft day?

I'd try and get two 100+ draft picks back from him.

Use the FBG calculator math to your advantage there as well (if need be - don't need to tell him about the calculator if you don't have to ).

A pick in the 150s and another later on balances out the trade and the rosters.

2. Just on an intrinsic value here, I like the ability to get 2 of the Top 10 players. Yes depth will be hurt as a result, but come on. You're a footballguy here. You will know about WR60s and 70s that will outperform their value and be fine for a weekly starter plug in value.

I don't know how "sharky" your league is, but imagine this draft:

7 - LaMont Jordan
9 - Ronnie Brown
31
42 - Donald Driver (ADP in mid 40s)
55
66 - Rod Smith (high 70s)
79 - Reggie Brown (80s)
...(84, 90, 103).... QB/TE/Best Player
108

That looks good to me.

You could go WR at 9 and pick up Marion Barber or DeAngelo Williams later in place of Rod Smith as well.

There are lots of ways to go, but locking up 2 of Top 10 and sharking at the deeper rounds is the way to go.

Good luck.

Jeff,

Thanks for the quick response. However, I gave you a wrong # in the trade. It is my 10th round, #114. My bad! With that said, the FBG calc says "NO" but only (1465 vs 1438, or -2%). So I take it that I'm still looking good, and I WILL get his 17th and 18th rounders too.

You quoted ...(84, 90, 103).... QB/TE/Best Player, but I don't get 84 in my spot. I'll then have these #s (90, 103, 127). Can you comment on these instead? My thinking is maybe:

90 - Aaron Brooks (ADP 104)
103 - LJ Smith (ADP 103) or Ben Watson (ADP 121)
127 - Kevin Curtis (ADP 129), Sammie Parker (ADP 187), Ernest Wilford (ADP 130)

I'm leaning toward Wilford. What do you think? Thanks in advance.

I liked all that you did here except Wilford. I don't like any WRs in Jacksonville with such instability, but Reggie Williams is a super value IIRC.

Just checked - won't give it away (subscriber stuff) but he's a steal that late.

At 127, with that list - Samie Parker is my choice of those 3, but don't sleep on Isaac Bruce. Yes, over Curtis.

[Bob Sacamano]

:reported:

Hack,

Thanks for the comment - I'm aware of the store, and somehow I don't think we are in direct competition.

Worst... sense of humor... ever

[Butt-Head]

Hey Jeff, great site. I'm hoping you could answer a couple of questions for me.

I'm in a maximum three player keeper league, with it being a 12 team league. We start 1 QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1K, maximum of 14 player roster, with an injured reserve option to pick up only one player of the same position if a guy is doubtful or out on the NFL injury report.

My only player worth keeping looks to be Cadillac. Building up to last season's trade deadline I have acquired extra picks for the upcoming draft. I backed into the playoffs and made it to 3rd place with the following roster: M. Hasselbeck & Eli, Caddy, Dillon, Moats, Mike Anderson, Santana Moss, Muhammad, Mark Clayton (Baltimore), Toomer, Shockey, Bryan Fletcher, Tynes and Bironas. It was my first year in the league and took over a roster that only had Dillon on it and was short on draft picks.

As of now, my drafting order is:

Rd 1 - Caddy (keeper 1.10); Rd 2 (Open pick, no keeper 2.10); Rd 3 (Open pick, no keeper 3.10), 4.10; 4.12; 5.03; 5.11; 6.04; 7.03; 10.10; 10.12; 11.03; 12.10; 13.03; 14.10.

That amounts to 15 picks for a 14 player roster.

What would be good value in terms of trading an extra pick or two this year for a higher pick next year? For example, if I trade my 6.04, do I ask for a 5th round pick next year and a seventh round pick next this year OR should I ask for a 4th round pick next year? What rule of thumb should I use?

As well, another owner who has a history of overvaluing his players is offering me Ronnie Brown. I have him rated no higher than # 12 overall. I've offered, based on the pick value calculator 4.12; 6.04 and 7.03 for Ronnie Brown and his 9.07.

The other owner is lacking high draft picks as he traded most away to make a playoff push and didn't get in last year. He also happens to own and plans to keep Larry Johnson and Antonio Gates and probably will let JJ back into the draft. Do you think this is a fair offer for Ronnie Brown?

Thanks.

Edited by Butt-Head, 12 August 2006 - 05:53 PM.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Sorry folks, I was out for my anniversary.

Let's talk some trades.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hey Jeff, great site. I'm hoping you could answer a couple of questions for me.

I'm in a maximum three player keeper league, with it being a 12 team league. We start 1 QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1K, maximum of 14 player roster, with an injured reserve option to pick up only one player of the same position if a guy is doubtful or out on the NFL injury report.

My only player worth keeping looks to be Cadillac. Building up to last season's trade deadline I have acquired extra picks for the upcoming draft. I backed into the playoffs and made it to 3rd place with the following roster: M. Hasselbeck & Eli, Caddy, Dillon, Moats, Mike Anderson, Santana Moss, Muhammad, Mark Clayton (Baltimore), Toomer, Shockey, Bryan Fletcher, Tynes and Bironas. It was my first year in the league and took over a roster that only had Dillon on it and was short on draft picks.

As of now, my drafting order is:

Rd 1 - Caddy (keeper 1.10); Rd 2 (Open pick, no keeper 2.10); Rd 3 (Open pick, no keeper 3.10), 4.10; 4.12; 5.03; 5.11; 6.04; 7.03; 10.10; 10.12; 11.03; 12.10; 13.03; 14.10.
That amounts to 15 picks for a 14 player roster.

What would be good value in terms of trading an extra pick or two this year for a higher pick next year? For example, if I trade my 6.04, do I ask for a 5th round pick next year and a seventh round pick next this year OR should I ask for a 4th round pick next year? What rule of thumb should I use?

As well, another owner who has a history of overvaluing his players is offering me Ronnie Brown. I have him rated no higher than # 12 overall. I've offered, based on the pick value calculator 4.12; 6.04 and 7.03 for Ronnie Brown and his 9.07.

The other owner is lacking high draft picks as he traded most away to make a playoff push and didn't get in last year. He also happens to own and plans to keep Larry Johnson and Antonio Gates and probably will let JJ back into the draft. Do you think this is a fair offer for Ronnie Brown?

Thanks.

Thanks, er, guy .

There's a lot to cover here. I'll try to break it up.

Q1. What would be good value in terms of trading an extra pick or two this year for a higher pick next year?
For example, if I trade my 6.04, do I ask for a 5th round pick next year and a seventh round pick next this year OR should I ask for a 4th round pick next year? What rule of thumb should I use?

A1. Rules of thumb for future year picks.

This is really a loose rule (more of a guideline), but consider it about a "one year discount" for future value.

What I mean is this - take the round of the pick and subtract the number of years away it is, and that is (about) the comparable value.

For example, a 2008 4th rounder is worth about a 2006 6th (or a 2007 5th).

Now, this is a very loose rule, because the future value is dependent upon where that pick falls. This is especially important with higher picks (and more important in dynasty leagues, as rookies are worth so much more there).

Another thing to consider is the owner who owns the pick. Is he the defending champ or a perennial playoff team? Discount the pick further because that pick is likely to be a low pick in that round. Alternatively, increase the value of a pick coming from an owner who struggles every year.

As for your example, a 6.04 (early / mid 6th) this year is worth about a 5th next year, possibly slightly more, so your valuation was on target.



Q2. As well, another owner who has a history of overvaluing his players is offering me Ronnie Brown. I have him rated no higher than # 12 overall. I've offered, based on the pick value calculator 4.12; 6.04 and 7.03 for Ronnie Brown and his 9.07.

The other owner is lacking high draft picks as he traded most away to make a playoff push and didn't get in last year. He also happens to own and plans to keep Larry Johnson and Antonio Gates and probably will let JJ back into the draft. Do you think this is a fair offer for Ronnie Brown?

A2. I'm not surprised at his keeper choices. However, I don't follow your logic for valuing Ronnie Brown.

If you take Ronnie Brown now, he certianly becomes your second keeper (dropping in to you 2.10 slot).

That's quite a value considering you have him at 1.12 value. However, I think we have a disconnect on the valuation of the picks. Let's have a look.

Just using the FBG Pick Calculator and your offer:
4.12 (#48) = 606
6.04 (#64) = 455
7.03 (#75) = 358

for
Ronnie Brown
9.07 (#103) = 156

Which works out to be Ronnie Brown = 1263 points, or 2.01 (#13) = 1272 (close enough).

Here's the problem with that - you ALSO lose 2.10 since that's your keeper spot.

Now, let's throw that in (2.10 = #22 = 998), and you can see that this trade would be off.

But it reality, you're not trading the 2.10 to him - so which is the right math?

The truth is actually somewhere in between. Pick calculators often fail for keeper league trades. The question you have to ask yourself is this: What price are you willing to pay to get #12 talent at pick #22? That's 274 points using the draft calculator, which is roughly an 8th round pick.

If you can keep a talent like Ronnie Brown for multiple seasons, you should overpay (give more than an 8th) for that privilege, but giving up redraft value is likely to be excessive.

This leads me to the way I'd approach this scenario.

You have too many picks and not enough keepers. I'd be willing to say that another owner in your league has the opposite problem - too much talent to keep but not enough picks. So, you should talk with that owner and offer a pick for that player (say a fourth rounder), which isn't fair value for the player straight up, but it does give the owner with one too many keepers good value over getting nothing for him.

There are 36 players worth keeping in your league. Find the owner with four (or more) and offer a 4th for that player, straight up, using this same argument. You may get your second keeper as a result.

This is a great question and I may even use it in the column.

Thanks for the question(s) and good luck.

[Sweet Love]

Hope you had a nice dinner!

I am someone that hates making trades...I know, very uncool for a shark, but here are the reasons why:

1) I chose the player on my roster for a reason (I like him and think he is better than most in the same "neighborhood"

2) I rarely see eye-to-eye with trade partners (even when I use the trade dominator and explain the fairness of the deal)

3) Flex positions kill the necessity of trading. I one league I am in, I can start 2 RBs and 5 wides or 4 RBs and 3 wides...who needs to trade?? You are either RB heavy or WR heavy.

Here is my question. I am in a Keep 3 league and had Edge, S-Jax and R. Brown...but I can only keep two at one position. So I pull a trade of Edge for Fitzgerald straight up, thereby having one WR and two RBs...we can hold onto keepers for four years, so NONE of these guys will need to be dropped due to age.

Feeling good, and a guy in my league offers me Holt, 1.09 and 4.04 for Fitz and 2.05 and 6.05. Here is the real question you can run with...would you trade a guy that could be your conerstone for years to come for someone that has probably peaked and would be on a slide towards the end of the four year "contract". With that said, am I putting Fitz on too big of a pedastal and turning down a chance to own one of the greatest recievers in NFL history for a guy who could be the next Jake Reed, Germane Crowell, Marcus Robinson...you get the picture?

I was thinking of asking for my third round choice to be substituted for my second choice, but am I being greedy or should I just hold onto Fitz??

Thanks for the help and congrats on the anniversary!

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hope you had a nice dinner!

I am someone that hates making trades...I know, very uncool for a shark, but here are the reasons why:

1) I chose the player on my roster for a reason (I like him and think he is better than most in the same "neighborhood"

2) I rarely see eye-to-eye with trade partners (even when I use the trade dominator and explain the fairness of the deal)

3) Flex positions kill the necessity of trading. I one league I am in, I can start 2 RBs and 5 wides or 4 RBs and 3 wides...who needs to trade?? You are either RB heavy or WR heavy.

Here is my question. I am in a Keep 3 league and had Edge, S-Jax and R. Brown...but I can only keep two at one position. So I pull a trade of Edge for Fitzgerald straight up, thereby having one WR and two RBs...we can hold onto keepers for four years, so NONE of these guys will need to be dropped due to age.

Feeling good, and a guy in my league offers me Holt, 1.09 and 4.04 for Fitz and 2.05 and 6.05. Here is the real question you can run with...would you trade a guy that could be your conerstone for years to come for someone that has probably peaked and would be on a slide towards the end of the four year "contract". With that said, am I putting Fitz on too big of a pedastal and turning down a chance to own one of the greatest recievers in NFL history for a guy who could be the next Jake Reed, Germane Crowell, Marcus Robinson...you get the picture?

I was thinking of asking for my third round choice to be substituted for my second choice, but am I being greedy or should I just hold onto Fitz??

Thanks for the help and congrats on the anniversary!

Hi Sweet Love,

Thanks for the warm wishes. Low key anniversary, but it's all good.

To your question - I am also in the Fitzgerald Fan Club, so I can completely feel for your position. You've been offered a Top 5 WR (this year and years past) for another Top 5 WR, with added value (1st/4th for a 2nd/6th). Even so - every player has value and should be considered at any given moment for a trade. You can't fall in love with players in fantasy football - they are commoditized assets that have volatile market values. Never forget that.

Upgrading those two picks are significant, but you went out and got who you felt was your best WR and made the trade. (On a side note, nice trade with Edge for Fitz - especially by moving away from having two Cardinals).

Holt is 30 and has some history now of injury (leg issues last year). Sure he played, but that's one nick in the armor - and in the NFL the armor can come off quickly.

In addition, Holt's on a team that just changed head coaches and the organization is claiming a renewed commitment to the run - which could adversely impact Holt's value.

While I love Holt too, I'd feel much better about having Fitz for the next three years and entering his fourth at the ripe old age of 27 rather than Holt at age 34.

I'd stand pat with Fitz and feel good about it.

[jeter23]

Hey Jeff,
After today's events, I have a general question. Now that he is with the Jets, what is Suggs' trade value in general? I have him in a couple different dynasty leagues, so I won't get into specifics, but what level WR could I expect to get for him right now? Would you advise dealing him soon, or waiting to see how the situation develops?
By the way, great new feature for the ACF!

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hey Jeff,
After today's events, I have a general question. Now that he is with the Jets, what is Suggs' trade value in general? I have him in a couple different dynasty leagues, so I won't get into specifics, but what level WR could I expect to get for him right now? Would you advise dealing him soon, or waiting to see how the situation develops?
By the way, great new feature for the ACF!

Thanks jeter.

Lee Suggs is an interesting back. The former Hokie has had some decent games in the NFL, with his best performance coming in Week 17 for Cleveland in 2003 (2 TDs, 186 yards on 26 carries). He is a sturdy back with good power, but he has an injury-plagued history.

I think he can become the feature back for the Jets, but so can Blaylock or Houston or Washington (CMart, see ya at the HoF in 5 years).

As for his trade value, I think we're at what stock traders would call a "local peak". His value has obviously gone up, but for how long?

I would shop him around the league now, and look to get best value after the next Jets' game unless you get a decent offer of, say, a WR2. Someone in the WR35-40 range might be right. After all, even if he is the feature back for the Jets, they're still the Jets. I wouldn't expect much production.

The Jets are likely to throw 4-5 backs at the season and see what sticks. They probably have no clue either, so how could we?

Shop him now and transact him soon. He could be in the bargain bin by Labor Day once again.

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hey Jeff,
After today's events, I have a general question. Now that he is with the Jets, what is Suggs' trade value in general? I have him in a couple different dynasty leagues, so I won't get into specifics, but what level WR could I expect to get for him right now? Would you advise dealing him soon, or waiting to see how the situation develops?
By the way, great new feature for the ACF!

Thanks jeter.

Lee Suggs is an interesting back. The former Hokie has had some decent games in the NFL, with his best performance coming in Week 17 for Cleveland in 2003 (2 TDs, 186 yards on 26 carries). He is a sturdy back with good power, but he has an injury-plagued history.

I think he can become the feature back for the Jets, but so can Blaylock or Houston or Washington (CMart, see ya at the HoF in 5 years).

As for his trade value, I think we're at what stock traders would call a "local peak". His value has obviously gone up, but for how long?

I would shop him around the league now, and look to get best value after the next Jets' game unless you get a decent offer of, say, a WR2. Someone in the WR35-40 range might be right. After all, even if he is the feature back for the Jets, they're still the Jets. I wouldn't expect much production.

The Jets are likely to throw 4-5 backs at the season and see what sticks. They probably have no clue either, so how could we?

Shop him now and transact him soon. He could be in the bargain bin by Labor Day once again.

Apparently Labor Day was too generous.

He was at a local peak all right - he just fell off a cliff today.

[Redbullvodka]

Hi Joe

Just drafted in ten team keeper (keep 3) league. I got the #1 slot.
Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1flex, 1TE, K, DEF

My team:
QB Delhomme, Brooks
RB LJ, Dunn, Chester Taylor, Todd Jones, Dominic Rhodes, Mike Bell
WR Chad Johnson, Fitzgerald, Coles, Stallworth,
TE Shockey, Watson
K Reed
DEF Miami, NE

Scoring is 1 per 25 yd pass / 1 per 10 rush / 1 per 20 rec + 0.05 per rec. All TDs 6pts. 3 pt Bonus at 100yds rush / rec, 250 yd pass

My question is a guy during the draft was interested in trading for Shockey, and offered Gates & Tatum Bell for Shockey & Dunn

I'm kind of tempted by this simply because I have got Mike Bell, and should (if Dayne doesn't become a factor) have the Denver backfield locked up and get Gates, who with points for receptions should be an upgrade over Shockey (even with Rivers at QB).

Is this a good trade for me?

For the record his RBs are Portis, Bell, McAllister, Dayne
He has Gates & Stevens at TE

[Jeff Pasquino]

Hi Joe

Just drafted in ten team keeper (keep 3) league. I got the #1 slot.
Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1flex, 1TE, K, DEF

My team:
QB Delhomme, Brooks
RB LJ, Dunn, Chester Taylor, Todd Jones, Dominic Rhodes, Mike Bell
WR Chad Johnson, Fitzgerald, Coles, Stallworth,
TE Shockey, Watson
K Reed
DEF Miami, NE

Scoring is 1 per 25 yd pass / 1 per 10 rush / 1 per 20 rec + 0.05 per rec. All TDs 6pts. 3 pt Bonus at 100yds rush / rec, 250 yd pass

My question is a guy during the draft was interested in trading for Shockey, and offered Gates & Tatum Bell for Shockey & Dunn

I'm kind of tempted by this simply because I have got Mike Bell, and should (if Dayne doesn't become a factor) have the Denver backfield locked up and get Gates, who with points for receptions should be an upgrade over Shockey (even with Rivers at QB).

Is this a good trade for me?

For the record his RBs are Portis, Bell, McAllister, Dayne
He has Gates & Stevens at TE

Hi Red Bull Vodka,

First - I have to ask - who's Todd Jones?

Second - absolutely - wait, ABSOLUTELY make this trade.

You wind up with the best TE in the game as a keeper, and you only need 2 RBs to start. You have Bell and Bell to committee RB2 vs. a RB1 of LJ, and you also have Chester Taylor.

By year end, you'll know who your third keeper will be after Gates and LJ - Chester, Tatum, or Mike Bell, or a Top 5 WR in Fitz or CJ.

Also, after the playoffs (which you should be in), trade one of those 2 WRs for something - like a draft pick - to get that value that you lose by not keeping CJ or Fitz.

Third - I'm assuming you mean 1/2 point for a catch, not 1/20th.

Good luck.

[mlbnfl]

Hey Jeff,

Not sure if this question really belongs in here, but any opinion you could give would be appreciated.

In a 10 team redraft league, there was a trade made that one league member, a friend of mine, had a big issue with. I wanted to see if you agree with him, or if the trade it ok.

Scoring(that pertains to this deal):
Rushing Yards (20 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (6)
Receptions (1)
Reception Yards (20 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (6)
Return Touchdowns (6)
2-Point Conversions (2)
Fumbles Lost (-2)

Defensive scoring is pretty standard, with shutouts/low scoring game gives a little more points than usual.

Rosters Pre-trade(only positions pertaining to trade, trying to make post as short as possible):
Team A:
RB-LJ
RB-Jamal Lewis
WR-Chad Johnson
WR-Torry Holt
WR-Rod Smith
WR/RB-Dayne
D-Tampa
Bench-TAtum Bell
B-Mewelde
B-Givens
B-B Lloyd

Team B:
RB-Ronnie Brown
RB-Westbrook
WR-Hines
WR-DJax
WR-Driver
WR/RB-Chester Taylor
D-Pittsburgh
Bench-Thomas Jones
B-Chris Brown
B-Curtis Martin
B-Betts
B-Keyshawn
B-Toomer


Here was the trade:
Team A trade:
Larry Johnson
Torry Holt
Ron Dayne
Tatum Bell
Tampa D

to Team B for:
Ronnie Brown
Hines Ward
Chester Taylor
Chris Brown
Pittsburgh D

Someone in another thread asked for reasoning, so heres what I gather:
The reasoning for team A was that with the ppr and Den situation, Chester and Ronnie were better than normal leagues(ppr obviously), and the upgrade at flex was enough.

Team B was that the upgrade to Holt and Larry was enough to lose the Chester starting at flex, has to hope for no RB injury though, all his bench RBs are in murky situations, but thats a risk he was willing to take.


Is this trade really really bad, or just one sided but not too bad, or fair, or what?

Thanks

[Redbullvodka]

Hi Joe

Just drafted in ten team keeper (keep 3) league. I got the #1 slot.
Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1flex, 1TE, K, DEF

My team:
QB Delhomme, Brooks
RB LJ, Dunn, Chester Taylor, Todd Jones, Dominic Rhodes, Mike Bell
WR Chad Johnson, Fitzgerald, Coles, Stallworth,
TE Shockey, Watson
K Reed
DEF Miami, NE

Scoring is 1 per 25 yd pass / 1 per 10 rush / 1 per 20 rec + 0.05 per rec. All TDs 6pts. 3 pt Bonus at 100yds rush / rec, 250 yd pass

My question is a guy during the draft was interested in trading for Shockey, and offered Gates & Tatum Bell for Shockey & Dunn

I'm kind of tempted by this simply because I have got Mike Bell, and should (if Dayne doesn't become a factor) have the Denver backfield locked up and get Gates, who with points for receptions should be an upgrade over Shockey (even with Rivers at QB).

Is this a good trade for me?

For the record his RBs are Portis, Bell, McAllister, Dayne
He has Gates & Stevens at TE

Hi Red Bull Vodka,

First - I have to ask - who's Todd Jones?

Second - absolutely - wait, ABSOLUTELY make this trade.

You wind up with the best TE in the game as a keeper, and you only need 2 RBs to start. You have Bell and Bell to committee RB2 vs. a RB1 of LJ, and you also have Chester Taylor.

By year end, you'll know who your third keeper will be after Gates and LJ - Chester, Tatum, or Mike Bell, or a Top 5 WR in Fitz or CJ.

Also, after the playoffs (which you should be in), trade one of those 2 WRs for something - like a draft pick - to get that value that you lose by not keeping CJ or Fitz.

Third - I'm assuming you mean 1/2 point for a catch, not 1/20th.

Good luck.

Hi Joe

Thanks for your reply and advice.

Sorry about the "deliberate" mistakes - obviously still thinking about baseball subconsciously with Jones - it is obviously Thomas Jones of the Bears! And yes it is 0.5pt per reception.

[DolphinsPhan]

Hey Jeff. Great idea for a topic.

Draft strategy question...not really a "trade" question.

I pick 6 out of 12 and we each have one keeper. Mine is LT. 11 of the 12 keepers are RBs. Standard FBG scoring and we start QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, Def.

The top RBs available:
Steven Jackson
Cad Williams
McGahee
Dom Davis
Kev Jones
W Parker

All WRs and all QBs available except for McNabb.

My question is am I better off drafting a 2nd tier RB or top tier WR/QB? I know S Jax and Caddy will be gone and I am guessing that 3 of either McGahee, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, or Manning will also be gone. Who should I be targeting with pick 6? Do I want LT and someone like McGahee/Dom Davis or LT and top WR/QB??? Mentally it is tough to pick a 2nd tier RB over top WR/QB, but RBs go like wildfire in my league.

Thanks in advance.