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Reggie Bush (1 Viewer)

Raiders

Raiders

Footballguy
Right now R Bush’s ADP is at 31. I think that is due mostly to the fact that most people don’t see bush getting over 200 carries this year. In fact 200 carries only works out to 12.5 per game. Given the fact that Deuce is recovering for ACL, and that the Saints just made R Bush the highest paid RB ever, and coupled with the fact that I really don’t see anyway that he is outplayed my McAllister this year; I would say that 12.5 carries a game is a VERY conservative estimation. In fact that is the exact number of carries he is predicted to have by Mr. Dodds this season. And while I think it will be more in the 250 range, lets suppose for the sake of argument that the number really is 200.

Does a RB that carries the ball only 12.5 times a game warrant a first round pick?

If your name is Brian Westbrook it does.

Westbrook in his 4 year career has never carried the ball more than 177 times, and in that year (2004) he finished as the number 10 ranked RB.

177 carries 812 yards 4.6 ypc 3 TDs, with 73 receptions 703 yards 9.6 ypc and 6 TDs.

Last year (18th ranked) he finished with:

156 carries 617 yards 4.0 ypc 3 TDs, with 61 receptions 616 yards 10.1 ypc and 4 TDs

Westbrook’s ADP for 2006 is the 13th player off the board. R Bush is # 31.

My point is this, there are lots of ways to score points and accumulate yards in this league. And there are lots of examples of rookie RB’s stepping right in and doing very well. Few people will argue that Westbrook deserves an end of the first/ top of the 2nd round grade, but people dispute the fact that Bush is even worthy of a 3rd round pick?!

Bush is exponentially more talented than Westbrook is, and he is in just as good of a situation I think. With D Brees still recovering from his injury and learning a new system, I see the screen pass and emergency dump off play being the bread and butter of that passing game.

My projections for Bush in 2006

250 carries 1,225 yards 4.9 ypc 7 Tds, 60 receptions 510 yards 8.5 ypc 6 TD’s

That’s 251 pts. Which would put him as the number 5 back on the board and that equals a first round selection any which way you cut it!!! :banned:

 
I don't think he's worth a first-round pick but I am starting to think that he is worth a late second-round pick as your RB2. His ADP, barring injury, is only going to increase in all probability. And when you factor in the large number of questions and/or talent issues involved with so many of the RBs after the first 10-12 or so are off the board, taking Bush late in the second doesn't seem like so much of a gamble anymore. In a PPR league his value is even higher but even in standard scoring leagues he's looking more and more, IMO, like a viable RB2 option even with McAllister still around.

The way I see it if you want Bush you can't afford to sit back and hope he falls to you in the third round. If you want him you're going to have to be aggressive in your pursuit.

 
:no:

But I would (will?) spend a 2nd on him if I really wanted him on my team

He wil not last to your pick in the third if you are drafting 6 or later.

 
Raiders said:
Bush is exponentially more talented than Westbrook is, and he is in just as good of a situation I think. My projections for Bush in 2006250 carries 1,225 yards 4.9 ypc 7 Tds, 60 receptions 510 yards 8.5 ypc 6 TD’s
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If Bush is exponentially more talented than Westbrook, why do you project Bush with less total yards than Westbrook? Over the last two seasons, Westbrooks' average yards per game pro-rated to 16 games is 1759. You've got Bush with 1735. Either you have Bush doing that in less than 16 games (which makes him more valuable), he's not exponentially more talented than Westbrook, or something else that I don't understand here.
 
In a PPR league, emphasis on PPR, if I had the 12/13 pick, I wouldn't hesitate to grab Bush. He wouldn't be there the next go around, and no guarantee any of the other backs would be better than Bush. Domanick Davis? Willis McGahee? Kevin/Julius Jones? Not exactly "sure things."

People are overrating Duece McAllister. Consider that he is coming off a ACL injury. Remember, Edgerrin James only had 989 yards and 3.6 YPC coming off the same injury, and he was younger and better than McAllister is now. This is Bush's show. The Saints have such a bad defense, the power running game will be hard to establish. That means more passing situations, which favors Bush as being the main back in New Orleans. He'll rack up catches, screens and draw plays.

 
His ADP probably climbed up into the first round after his performance yesterday. He can just blow by guys in the open field. It's scary to see him pull the same things he was doing in college in the NFL.

 
Raiders said:
Right now R Bush’s ADP is at 31. I think that is due mostly to the fact that most people don’t see bush getting over 200 carries this year. In fact 200 carries only works out to 12.5 per game. Given the fact that Deuce is recovering for ACL, and that the Saints just made R Bush the highest paid RB ever, and coupled with the fact that I really don’t see anyway that he is outplayed my McAllister this year; I would say that 12.5 carries a game is a VERY conservative estimation. In fact that is the exact number of carries he is predicted to have by Mr. Dodds this season. And while I think it will be more in the 250 range, lets suppose for the sake of argument that the number really is 200.Does a RB that carries the ball only 12.5 times a game warrant a first round pick?If your name is Brian Westbrook it does.Westbrook in his 4 year career has never carried the ball more than 177 times, and in that year (2004) he finished as the number 10 ranked RB. 177 carries 812 yards 4.6 ypc 3 TDs, with 73 receptions 703 yards 9.6 ypc and 6 TDs. Last year (18th ranked) he finished with:156 carries 617 yards 4.0 ypc 3 TDs, with 61 receptions 616 yards 10.1 ypc and 4 TDsWestbrook’s ADP for 2006 is the 13th player off the board. R Bush is # 31.My point is this, there are lots of ways to score points and accumulate yards in this league. And there are lots of examples of rookie RB’s stepping right in and doing very well. Few people will argue that Westbrook deserves an end of the first/ top of the 2nd round grade, but people dispute the fact that Bush is even worthy of a 3rd round pick?!Bush is exponentially more talented than Westbrook is, and he is in just as good of a situation I think. With D Brees still recovering from his injury and learning a new system, I see the screen pass and emergency dump off play being the bread and butter of that passing game.My projections for Bush in 2006250 carries 1,225 yards 4.9 ypc 7 Tds, 60 receptions 510 yards 8.5 ypc 6 TD’sThat’s 251 pts. Which would put him as the number 5 back on the board and that equals a first round selection any which way you cut it!!! :banned:
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I agree...now please DELETE THIS THREAD :rant:
 
Shiver44 said:
He wouldn't be there the next go around,
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Under cerain drafting philosophies (including mine) this is the ONLY relevant point to consider.If you are high on a guy and you KNOW he won't be there by your next pick, whatever average drafting or VBD says about it is irrelevant.Even in non-PPR, if you are @ the 1/2 turn, and you want Bush on your team, you need to grab him at the 1/2 turn.
 
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Chase Stuart said:
Raiders said:
Bush is exponentially more talented than Westbrook is, and he is in just as good of a situation I think. My projections for Bush in 2006250 carries 1,225 yards 4.9 ypc 7 Tds, 60 receptions 510 yards 8.5 ypc 6 TD’s
Click to expand...
If Bush is exponentially more talented than Westbrook, why do you project Bush with less total yards than Westbrook? Over the last two seasons, Westbrooks' average yards per game pro-rated to 16 games is 1759. You've got Bush with 1735. Either you have Bush doing that in less than 16 games (which makes him more valuable), he's not exponentially more talented than Westbrook, or something else that I don't understand here.
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Westbrook was the only Rb in Philly. And while I do see Bush being the man it is silly to think that Deuce won't get some love. Plus, I said that he was exponentially more TALENTED, not that his numbers would be exponentially better this year. Once Deuce is gone I see his numbers being closser to what LT2 did in 2003 when he had 2,360 total yards 17 TD's and 344 Fantasy points. Numbers that Westbrook due to his lack of relative TALENT in comparrison to Bush, will never put up.
 
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Marc Levin said:
packersfan said:
The way I see it if you want Bush you can't afford to sit back and hope he falls to you in the third round. If you want him you're going to have to be aggressive in your pursuit.
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beat me to it.
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I have the 19th pick overall in the second round of my draft. My plan has been to take McGahee if he's there (his ADP says it's 50-50 on that right now) and possibly take Kevin Jones who I really like a lot and who unlikely will fall to the third round. If both of those guys are gone, I was going to take the highest of the Top 6 WRs on my list who was still available. The debate I've been having is whether I want to take Jones ahead of someone like Holt or Fitz or Harrison. Given how bad Jones was last season, the easy answer is no, but given the massive drop-off in talent at RB in the third round and given how there will be some viable WR options still there it's had me leaning in Jones' direction (sorry for the sidetrack).However, now I've started to ponder adding Bush to the list as well. As we both agree he won't be there in the third if you're picking late in the first round so if you want him from that draft spot you pretty much have to take him in the second. That means possibly taking him over one of the stud WRs such as Holt, Fitz or Harrison. That's a very big roll of the dice in my opinion but it's one that could definitely pay off -- even in a standard scoring league.
 
Marc Levin said:
Shiver44 said:
He wouldn't be there the next go around,
Click to expand...
Under cerain drafting philosophies (including mine) this is the ONLY relevant point to consider.If you are high on a guy and you KNOW he won't be there by your next pick, whatever average drafting or VBD says about it is irrelevant.Even in non-PPR, if you are @ the 1/2 turn, and you want Bush on your team, you need to grab him at the 1/2 turn.
Click to expand...
I agree. In other words, if you really like a guy sack up and take him.
 
packersfan said:
Marc Levin said:
Shiver44 said:
He wouldn't be there the next go around,
Click to expand...
Under cerain drafting philosophies (including mine) this is the ONLY relevant point to consider.If you are high on a guy and you KNOW he won't be there by your next pick, whatever average drafting or VBD says about it is irrelevant.Even in non-PPR, if you are @ the 1/2 turn, and you want Bush on your team, you need to grab him at the 1/2 turn.
Click to expand...
I agree. In other words, if you really like a guy sack up and take him.
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I'm almost 100 percent positive you and I had a really good discussion on this concept of drafting last year.
 
Raiders said:
Marc Levin said:
Raiders said:
Plus, I said that he was exponentially more TALENTED,
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I think Chase was, in a kinda nice way, saying this word makes no sense in this sentence. Look up the word "exponential" and then come back and tell us whether it makes sense. Here - I'll make it easy:

http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/exponential
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I scored a 740 on the verbal, but thanks anyway. :thumbdown:
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The EXPLAIN your use of that word in that sentence. It makes no sense. Sorry - but verbals on your SATs or not, you'd get marked off for using that word in that sentence in an English paper.I was an English/Philosophy major in college - what the heck does THAT have to with using proper English?

 
Beaumont said:
Raiders said:
Marc Levin said:
Raiders said:
Plus, I said that he was exponentially more TALENTED,
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I think Chase was, in a kinda nice way, saying this word makes no sense in this sentence. Look up the word "exponential" and then come back and tell us whether it makes sense. Here - I'll make it easy:

http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/exponential
Click to expand...
I scored a 740 on the verbal, but thanks anyway. :thumbdown:
Click to expand...
Did they let you edit your answers?
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N,o Iwastn allowed a CPU too make typpos on.
 
Marc Levin said:
packersfan said:
Marc Levin said:
Shiver44 said:
He wouldn't be there the next go around,
Click to expand...
Under cerain drafting philosophies (including mine) this is the ONLY relevant point to consider.If you are high on a guy and you KNOW he won't be there by your next pick, whatever average drafting or VBD says about it is irrelevant.Even in non-PPR, if you are @ the 1/2 turn, and you want Bush on your team, you need to grab him at the 1/2 turn.
Click to expand...
I agree. In other words, if you really like a guy sack up and take him.
Click to expand...
I'm almost 100 percent positive you and I had a really good discussion on this concept of drafting last year.
Click to expand...
Sounds familiar. :) But I do agree that there are times you have to be willing to ignore ADP. That doesn't mean I'm going to pick a guy 2-3 rounds before he's likely to go but if you really like someone and you know with 100% certainty he won't be there coming back (i.e. Bush in the third if you're picking late in the first) then the hell with ADP and trust your instincts. That becomes especially true, IMO, if the talent thins out at a particular position - which I believe is the case at RB this year. Consider some of the RBs who you will be looking at in the third round if you are picking late in the first and go WR in the second:Willie ParkerReuben DroughnsJulius JonesChester TaylorJamal LewisDeShaun FosterWarrick DunnCorey DillonThat's just a sampling. Now some of these RBs are certainly viable RB2 options (Dunn, for example, though I would anticipate a reduction in his rushing yardage compared to last season) but there are major questions with nearly all of them. So if you're picking late in the first your options could be something like this:Rudi/Bush/Ward (or Roy Williams or Driver or another WR lurking outside the Top 10)ORRudi/Holt/TaylorIt then comes down to which lineup you would prefer.
 
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Reggie has definitely moved into the second round.

From a pure ecominic perspective the Saints HAVE to give him touches. McAllister did not sell all those extra season tickets. And Reggie has already shown enough to assuage concerns that his superior athleticism will not translate to the pro level.

He may not produce as many TDs but I think he could put up similar yardage totals to LaDainian's first year in San Diego (he probably has more help and talent around him than LT2 did) - somwhere in the neighbourhood of 1500 yds.

One other point: Cadillac Williams was going late second - early third last year (I took him at 3.1 in a 14 teamer). Considering Reggie has the ability to contribute in so many different ways I think he has at least as much, probably a good deal more value (especially in PPR leagues) this time around.

 
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packersfan - the theory behind the DD is that you manually adjust the projectionsa to fit reality, so the DD does it for ya.

However, whan I adjust those projections, I adjust them for what I think is most likely to happen with the player -I do not factor in what MIGHT happen.

I thikn that is where our discussion was at - you have to go off your "instincts" (as you call them) when someone is for sure not gonna be ther ewhen you next pick - one MORE Reason I hate drafting from the middle this year - you can't accurately predict which players will go by-bye by your next pick.

Reggie Bush's "might happen" factor is off the charts - If you want him on your team, do not hesitate to take him ANYwhere in the 2nd round - from 2.01 to 2.12

 
joffer said:
in a PPR league, i'd consider him a steal in the early 2nd. he could catch 70 passes in that offense.
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:corrected:In all seriousness, I would seriously consider him at the #11 overall in a PPR league - on upside alone, not on realistic production.

 
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Appears a lot of people want to know what is up with this guy.

I was set to take him at 3.04 in my 12 team redraft league...he went off the board at 3.01

I think if you want him you are going to have to reach for him. Reggie will get 12-15 carries a game maybe more. 200-225 out of the backfield can very easily put him close to if not over 1,000 yds rush...and probably 5-6 TD from outside the 20 or so. You factor in his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield...this guy is a M.Faulk in the making out of the backfield...this is one area where it isn't close between he and Deuce. I would estimate he catches a minimum of 40 and probably 50+ for the season. You have to give him another 350-400+ receiving. If bush can touch the ball 275+ times he will make a strong push for 1,500+ total yds and 6-8+TD.

What is that worth? There are WR1 that would be better picks at the end of the 2nd but for guys that got one of the big4-5RB he makes a nice home run shot out of the RB2, and you can still come back in the 4th-5th and find some good value at RB.

When Bush was taken off the board I was very disappointed.

 
Marc Levin said:
packersfan - the theory behind the DD is that you manually adjust the projectionsa to fit reality, so the DD does it for ya.

However, whan I adjust those projections, I adjust them for what I think is most likely to happen with the player -I do not factor in what MIGHT happen.

I thikn that is where our discussion was at - you have to go off your "instincts" (as you call them) when someone is for sure not gonna be ther ewhen you next pick - one MORE Reason I hate drafting from the middle this year - you can't accurately predict which players will go by-bye by your next pick.

Reggie Bush's "might happen" factor is off the charts - If you want him on your team, do not hesitate to take him ANYwhere in the 2nd round - from 2.01 to 2.12
Click to expand...
I agree and I understand the principle behind DD. I wasn't trying to argue against it. I merely am saying there are some players whose ADP you may have to ignore if you really want them. Bush certainly falls into that category as we are sitting here today -- although if you are drafting closer to the start of the season he may end up being squarely in the second round in every draft which would make this discussion irrelevent. :) I think the one thing that can probably be agreed upon in nearly every draft is that Reggie Bush isn't going to fall to anyone. If you want him, you're going to have to be aggressive. And somebody in your draft is going to be aggressive. The question becomes is that someone going to be you?

 
I have the feeling that by the time my draft in my big $$ league rolls around (always the tues. before the regular season starts) I will have to spend a first round pick on him to guarantee his spot on my team.

So, unless I draft 9-10-11-12, he will not likely be on my team in that league.

 
packersfan said:
Marc Levin said:
packersfan - the theory behind the DD is that you manually adjust the projectionsa to fit reality, so the DD does it for ya.

However, whan I adjust those projections, I adjust them for what I think is most likely to happen with the player -I do not factor in what MIGHT happen.

I thikn that is where our discussion was at - you have to go off your "instincts" (as you call them) when someone is for sure not gonna be ther ewhen you next pick - one MORE Reason I hate drafting from the middle this year - you can't accurately predict which players will go by-bye by your next pick.

Reggie Bush's "might happen" factor is off the charts - If you want him on your team, do not hesitate to take him ANYwhere in the 2nd round - from 2.01 to 2.12
Click to expand...
I agree and I understand the principle behind DD. I wasn't trying to argue against it. I merely am saying there are some players whose ADP you may have to ignore if you really want them. Bush certainly falls into that category as we are sitting here today -- although if you are drafting closer to the start of the season he may end up being squarely in the second round in every draft which would make this discussion irrelevent. :) I think the one thing that can probably be agreed upon in nearly every draft is that Reggie Bush isn't going to fall to anyone. If you want him, you're going to have to be aggressive. And somebody in your draft is going to be aggressive. The question becomes is that someone going to be you?
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we're in agreement - there was no debate then and there is none now. Just discussion. I am quite serious that by the time the season rolls around, he could go in the late first round in many drafts.
 
Marc Levin said:
I have the feeling that by the time my draft in my big $$ league rolls around (always the tues. before the regular season starts) I will have to spend a first round pick on him to guarantee his spot on my team.So, unless I draft 9-10-11-12, he will not likely be on my team in that league.
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My draft is the day of the Thursday night opener. I hadn't counted on having Bush on my team this year based on the scenario I outlined earlier but I'm starting to think there's a chance he may be. Then again, a few more performances like the one last night and he may be off the board in the first 15 picks. :shock:
 
Marc Levin said:
packersfan said:
Marc Levin said:
packersfan - the theory behind the DD is that you manually adjust the projectionsa to fit reality, so the DD does it for ya.

However, whan I adjust those projections, I adjust them for what I think is most likely to happen with the player -I do not factor in what MIGHT happen.

I thikn that is where our discussion was at - you have to go off your "instincts" (as you call them) when someone is for sure not gonna be ther ewhen you next pick - one MORE Reason I hate drafting from the middle this year - you can't accurately predict which players will go by-bye by your next pick.

Reggie Bush's "might happen" factor is off the charts - If you want him on your team, do not hesitate to take him ANYwhere in the 2nd round - from 2.01 to 2.12
Click to expand...
I agree and I understand the principle behind DD. I wasn't trying to argue against it. I merely am saying there are some players whose ADP you may have to ignore if you really want them. Bush certainly falls into that category as we are sitting here today -- although if you are drafting closer to the start of the season he may end up being squarely in the second round in every draft which would make this discussion irrelevent. :) I think the one thing that can probably be agreed upon in nearly every draft is that Reggie Bush isn't going to fall to anyone. If you want him, you're going to have to be aggressive. And somebody in your draft is going to be aggressive. The question becomes is that someone going to be you?
Click to expand...
we're in agreement - there was no debate then and there is none now.
Click to expand...
I thought we were in agreement. :)
 
Jackal King said:
In MSBL, which is PPR, I took Reggie at 2.03, and didn't think twice.
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I think we may see a trend where Bush is starting to go ahead of the stud WRs or at least some of them (maybe behind Smith, Johnson and possibly Holt and ahead of TO, Fitz and Harrison). In a PPR league I think that's definitely viable; the question is should it be done in a standard scoring league? Again, a few more performances like last night's and it may become academic.
 
Marc Levin said:
I have the feeling that by the time my draft in my big $$ league rolls around (always the tues. before the regular season starts) I will have to spend a first round pick on him to guarantee his spot on my team.So, unless I draft 9-10-11-12, he will not likely be on my team in that league.
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Marc, I am in a keeper league (12 teams - keep up to three) and I am drafting in the 11 spot - I am seriously considering taking him in the 2nd round with my 2.2 pick depending on who falls to me in the first round. I guess I am just not comfortable with him as my RB1; so, if a Rudi Johnson falls to me in the first I think I will take a shot at him in the 2nd. Is this a crazy strategy??
 
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caglassc said:
Marc Levin said:
I have the feeling that by the time my draft in my big $$ league rolls around (always the tues. before the regular season starts) I will have to spend a first round pick on him to guarantee his spot on my team.So, unless I draft 9-10-11-12, he will not likely be on my team in that league.
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Marc, I am in a keeper league (12 teams - keep up to three) and I am drafting in the 11 spot - I am seriously considering taking him in the 2nd round with my 2.2 pick depending on who falls to me in the first round. I guess I am just not comfortable with him as my RB1; so, if a Rudi Johnson falls to me in the first I think I will take a shot at him in the 2nd. Is this a crazy strategy??
Click to expand...
yes it is crazy...draft the proven veteran.
 
The bush pick is a swing for the fences pick. You are going to ned to draft him in the second at this point and and any rookie in the second (even caddy) was a rough pick. I have teh 5th pick in the second round in WCOFF which is PPR, and I am going to watch him pass by. He is too risky for a league like that to pin your hopes on him in the second.

 
Gatorman said:
The bush pick is a swing for the fences pick. You are going to ned to draft him in the second at this point and and any rookie in the second (even caddy) was a rough pick. I have teh 5th pick in the second round in WCOFF which is PPR, and I am going to watch him pass by. He is too risky for a league like that to pin your hopes on him in the second.
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Nice to see a voice of reason...LOL at all the Bush drafting guppies.
 
LHUCKS said:
packersfan said:
The question becomes is that someone going to be you?
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The answer is "it shouldn't be."
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And why not in your opinion? I agree it's best to temper the enthusiasm and not get swept away by the hype, but what would prevent you from taking Bush in the second if you really liked him so you would avoid being stuck with a RB2 later you didn't have as much faith in? If you're arguing there's too much hype on Bush I won't dispute that. But I do think this is a year where the RB position is very weak and taking Bush isn't any more outrageous than relying on guys like Taylor, Foster, JJones or Lewis. There's questions everywhere at the RB position -- especially when you start targeting your RB2 possibilities.
 
Gatorman said:
The bush pick is a swing for the fences pick. You are going to ned to draft him in the second at this point and and any rookie in the second (even caddy) was a rough pick. I have teh 5th pick in the second round in WCOFF which is PPR, and I am going to watch him pass by. He is too risky for a league like that to pin your hopes on him in the second.
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i thought so too at first.but i don't think 800 yards rushing, and another 600 receving on 60 or so catches is that unrealistic. throw in 6-7 TDs, and that's in the neighborhood of 250 points. that is worth a 2nd round pick, with a pretty high ceiling. The Westbrook comparison is valid to me, because i don't see Deuce being that productive this year.
 
TenTimes said:
Should have known it was too good to be true. A Pac10 grad's word is about as good as the Arizona Wildcats' chances of winning a national championship in any sport in 2007.
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Go back to the ffa...we're talking about football in this forum.
 
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