last nite at another site we were having a discussion about STEVE SMITH and a Carolina Homer commented on the panther D and how it would effect the offense.
I posted the following at another site today and thought people here might find it interesting and/or helpful.
I posted the following at another site today and thought people here might find it interesting and/or helpful.
Here is what he had to say:
so I got to thinking and wanted to look at the number of offensive plays ALL teams had last yr along with their avg yrds/play. It really isnt easy to figure out how the short field will effect the panthers numbers but I guess by looking at the avg yards/play and then prognosticating their total number of plays you can come up with a number for a basis to create projections for total yards and then break that down to rushing and passing yards.So here it is:PantherDave said:
TEAM PLAYS AvgYds/Play AFC BUF 930 4.4 MIA 1026 5.1 NEP 1031 5.5 NYJ 907 4.4 BAL 1056 4.4 CIN 1018 5.6 CLE 938 4.9 PIT 960 5.4 HOU 954 4.2 IND 1000 5.8 JAX 1021 5.0 TEN 1022 5.0 DEN 1030 5.6 KCC 1059 5.8 OAK 997 5.0 SDC 1022 5.4 NFCDAL 1071 4.9NYG 1055 5.5PHI 1027 5.0WAS 1037 5.1CHI 937 4.4DET 955 4.5GBP 1051 4.9MIN 945 4.9ATL 1021 5.1CAR 964 5.1NOS 1017 4.9TBB 985 4.8ARZ 1075 5.2STL 1025 5.4SFF 865 4.1SEA 1020 5.8So a few observations:1. SF SUCKED with by far the fewest OFFENSIVE PLAYS(865)
2. NYJ SUCKED TOO with the second fewest offensive plays(907)
3. If you take SF and NYJ out and take an average for number of plays for all teams
with less then 1000 plays you get an average of 957 plays
4. The average # of plays for all teams that had 1000 or more plays was 1034
5. The average yards/play for all 32 teams comes out to 5.03(not exact since i just averaged the avg for each team but i am sure its still pretty close)
So I am sure you can use these numbers in many different ways but since we were discussing Steve Smith and the Panthers last nite I am just gonna continue to use the panthers for the rest of this post.
In 2003 the panthers had 1008 plays
In 2004 the panthers had 991 plays
In 2005 the panthers had 964 plays
2003: 48.21% passing plays, 51.79% running plays
2004: 57.42% passing plays, 42.58% running plays
2005: 49.48% passing plays, 50.52% running plays
So it looks like 2003 and 2004 pretty well were evenly balanced between passing/running plays.
One should summize that Carolina will try and use a balanced attack again this yr.
Lets look at PROJECTIONS for 2006:(utilizing 03,04,05 for reference points)
1.) 2006: Offensive Plays 957(the avg of 3-12 teams w/ the least plays in the nfl last yr)
2.) 2006: Passing Plays 48.85%*
3.) 2006: Rushing Plays 51.15%*
4.) 2006: Passing Attempts 455
5.) 2006: Passing Completions 269(59.12% completion %)
6.) 2006: Passing Yards: 3355(avg. 12.5/completion)
7.) 2006: Keyshawn Receptions: 50(approximations from #2 avgs in 03/04)
8.) 2006: Keyshawn Yardage: 655(using keys lifetime YPC of 13.1)
9.) 2006: Steve Smith Yardage: 1308**
10.)2006: Steve Smith Receptions: 91***
11.)2006: TD's well you got me I dont know how to come up with a factor for that
12.)2006: Rushing Plays 502
13.)2006: Rushing Yards 1717****
The more I look at these numbers and for some reason in my gut feel like they are gonna post slightly more plays and increase the passing and rushing numbers incrementally...anyway you cut it IMO it looks
like a solid year for Smith, Keyshawn Delhomme, Foster & Williams.
*I used an average of 2003 & 2005 since there was a spike in total plays in 2004
** I used 39% of passing yards to come up with this number, in 03 Smith ended the year
as the number 1 WR and accounted for 36.4% of the recvng yards...but it should be noted that
he didnt start the year out as the #1 WR so that % should be a bit higher. In 04 Mushin was the
#1 WR and he accounted for 38.6% of the recvng yards. In 05 Smith was basically a one man show
and accounted for 47.8% of the recvng yards. Since 05 is a spike and 03 and 04 seem to be much
more in line with what can be expected I used 39% for the #1 WR porjections for this yr. Why did I
make it .4% more then 04 and not just average 03 & 04? Because Smith is firmly entrenched as the play maker and cog that makes things happen in Carolina so I felt that adding .4% wasnt much of a stretch.
***Used Smith's YPC avg of 14.4 to come up with 91 catches
****I used 5.3/yrds/Play, so 957plays*5.3=5072.1-3355(passing yrds)=1717.1
So I guess in the end if you really want to try and project out what a specific player is going to do hit NFL.COM and ck out their 3 year averages and factor in the other things that could change those averages. Not sure if this post is going to be any help for anyone but I did put a good amount of time into researching the numbers, so if you dont like it :moon:
would that get the thread zapped 
