Projections for Jaguar WRs (1 Viewer)

Ok so here goes how I broke down and came up with the projections for the Jax WRs

I again looked at the previous 3 yrs(like i did for the Steve Smith/Keyshawn Projections HERE)

Offensive Plays Ran:

2003:1024(plays were exactly 50% run vs pass)

2004: 991(51.8% were passing plays)

2005:1021(47.4% were passing plays)

3yrAVG: 1012(49.7% were passing plays)

I am using 1000 plays for my 2006 projections so if anything you can add a smidge to my projections I am also going to use 50% passing to rushing plays...2005 was the 1st time in 3yrs there was a less then balanced attack on offense...with Fred Taylor a yr older and no true replacement I am going to use 50% as a baseline but I thin that this yr it could swing to 52% on passing plays)

PASSING STATS:

2003: 302/512 3389yds compl%58.9%

2004: 305/513 3315yds compl%59.5%

2005: 281/484 3340yds compl%58.1%

going to use 59% as a completion% for the projections

RECVNG STATS:

2003: WR1=72/1073*(23.8% of completions/31.7% of yds)

WR2=35/487(11.6% of completions/14.4% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

*Jimmy was suspended for the 1st 4 games so I extrapolated out his season to a full 16 games)

2004: WR1=74/1172(24.3% of completions/35.4% of yds)

WR2=50/533(16.4% of completions/16.1% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

2005: WR1=70/1023(24.9% of completions/30.6% of yds)

WR2=41/681(14.6% of completions/20.4% of yds)

WR3=35/445(12.5% of completions/13.3% of yds)

OK so those are the stats that I used to come up with the projections

There are a couple of variable that I factored in(my opinion of course):

1. The Jags werent very deep at Recvr in 03 & 04

2. Jimmy Smith passing the torch and all the other WRs are starting to step up but just as much as Freddy is getting old too...a key player that could change the WR3 numbers would be Drew but I am going to assume that the #3 WR is actually the 3rd best recvr again in 2006.

2006 Projections:

1000 offensive plays(split 50/50 run/pass)

PASSING

59% Completion %

295 Completions

500 Attempts

3400 Passing Yards(since Smith is gone and the Recvng corp has a better RAC ability I am giving an uptick in passing yards...but note this would be a team high for the last 4 yrs..the 3yr avg is 3348yds)

RECVNG

WR1 stats will =24% of completions and 33% of passing yards

WR2 stats will =15% of completions and 18% of passing yards

WR3 stats will =13% of completions and 13% of passing yards(this was the hardest to guage)

So that means that my JAX Recvng stat projections are:

WR1=72/1122

WR2=45/612

WR3=39/442

as for who is WR1, 2 or 3 well that is for you to figure out...if a true #1 doesnt step up then the numbers could very well even out more between the 3 WRs....

I really think Wilford is going to reap the rewards from this. It'll be his to take.

I have been a fan of his since the VaTech days, but I do not think Wilford has WR1 skills. He is too slow. Very slow. He timed a 4.8. You can be a 4.8 guy, that's tall when you are the #2b/3 receiver because you do not face the top CB's and are not asked to run all the routes. You can work to your streghts which for him seems to be a high fade route out on an island where he can use his height or over the middle.

He's simply not really the playmaker that you want to get the ball to. I think that's Jones. He has all the tools to be the #1 and run all the routes and make all the plays. But, I do not know that he will be ready to step up this year (playing WR for all of 1 year in his life). So, I see this year as a fairly spread year like an 800/800 for the top two guys. If Jones cannot step up to the the guy.

My consistent $0.02 on this.

Hope this helps. Wrote this for the Jag's WR spotlight.

In short, the Jags #1 traditionally have scored within 30-40% of WR receptions. I have high hopes for leftwich and jones but unless the pass protection becomes better its hard to expect too much. I have tempered my YPC as a result (14.4) You might want to consider doing the same. Jones might have to come back for balls and will have to run shorter routes if Leftwich doesnt have time in the pocket.

nshelat1 said:

I see this group as almost a mirror image of the '95 Jags where they had a group of talented recievers, none of which emerged as a true threat. However, I do feel as if this group is much more talented, but some questions do still exist.

For the record, Matt Jones and Reggie Williams are split out wide for me, Ernest Wilford at the slot Cortez Hankton/Chad Owens splitting time at #4.

Matt Jones:

The most important thing here to note is that he will be the team's featured reciever. Though that does mean he'll be going up against the elite corners of the game it also signals the progress Jones has had in learning the position and puts him in line for significant targets. Secondly, the progress he achieved with Byron Leftwich, especially nearing the time of Leftwich's injury was significant and was indicative of the growing rapport between the two.

Statistical Analysis: Looking at past history gives Jones a very good outlook. Under Byron Leftwich and Jack Del Rio, and without a true #2, Jimmy Smith was good for 70+ receptions and 1000+ yards every year since 2002 (when McCardell left) if his stats from 2003 (drug suspension) is extrapolated. Surely I am not saying that Matt Jones is equally as talented as Jimmy Smith but some numbers cannot be denied. Every year since 2002, the #1 WR recieved >30% of the Jaguars' WR completions and cracked 40% once and 50% once. In short, Jones will benefit from the inconsistant play of Wilford and Williams and if, by continuation, he recieves above 30% (probably closer to 40%) of the WR completions, then he is in line for about 65-75 receptions, and think he will fall somewhere in the middle, towards the lower end.

Abstract analysis: Jones is a freak physically which may reduce the learning curve and allow him flexibility in running sloppy routes, but he does require significant work in a few areas. What he needs to be able to do is to get consistant, clean breaks off the jam. While Jones does not have the greatest first step, he has superb acceleration and could really be a terror if he isnt stopped up by the jam. Since he will be facing better, and presumably more physical corners this season, he will have to get this down quickly- and it isnt that easy. Many speculate its his experience at QB (hesitation after the snap as opposed to WR's exploding off the line but I do think that with experience, he will have this down. His physical nature will most certainly help him, if he can push off and break the jam, he is a bona fide home run threat. Couple that with improved O-line depth (hopefully they can now field the best unit instead of the only unit) and Byron Leftwich and he becomes the key to the offense. Lots of responsibility for the sophmore but i feel as if he can handle it.

67 receptions, 965 yards and 9TD's ---> Call me bullish but he did average a TD every 7.1 catches last season (7.0 under leftwich). YPC is up but receptions will not crack 70 unless pass protection gives Leftwich the time to look downfield.

Thanks to OZ for some corrections

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Wilford has questionable hands as well.

In reference to Jones' ability to break the Jam, he is raw at doing so as refernced by last year. And, as a Jaguars' fan, it infuriates me to no end that they keep playing him in the slot, where there is no initial contact. We also saw what he can do-bowl over DB's like he did to Will Allen. His physicality is his best asset and its a shame that the Jaguars are not allowing to gain experience at harnessing it.

The Jaguars really need to let him get some experience at Z. It bothers me that they dont think its such a big deal.

bumpman said:

Wilford has questionable hands as well.

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His chest is great at deflecting the ball to the ground away from the defender though.

nshelat1 said:

Hope this helps. Wrote this for the Jag's WR spotlight.

nshelat1 said:

I see this group as almost a mirror image of the '95 Jags where they had a group of talented recievers, none of which emerged as a true threat. However, I do feel as if this group is much more talented, but some questions do still exist.

For the record, Matt Jones and Reggie Williams are split out wide for me, Ernest Wilford at the slot Cortez Hankton/Chad Owens splitting time at #4.

Matt Jones:

The most important thing here to note is that he will be the team's featured reciever.

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MY reports have Wilford at #1, Jones at #2

Jags may also have their best receiving TE in the Leftwich era if Marcedes Lewis gets healthy - some of Jimmy Smith's targets could go to him if he's the most sure handed receiver they have.

bumpman said:

Wilford has questionable hands as well.

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Very much so. He led the league in the catchable-balls/drops ratio last year. Link

switz said:

nshelat1 said:

Hope this helps. Wrote this for the Jag's WR spotlight.

nshelat1 said:

I see this group as almost a mirror image of the '95 Jags where they had a group of talented recievers, none of which emerged as a true threat. However, I do feel as if this group is much more talented, but some questions do still exist.

For the record, Matt Jones and Reggie Williams are split out wide for me, Ernest Wilford at the slot Cortez Hankton/Chad Owens splitting time at #4.

Matt Jones:

The most important thing here to note is that he will be the team's featured reciever.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

MY reports have Wilford at #1, Jones at #2

Click to expand...

Incorrect in reference to talent. Been working as #1 all camp. Actually, its not even a question anymore. Care to share what you know? EDIT: Cant get a chance to see him tomorrow. Listed as INACTIVE for tomorrows game against the Panthers. Looks like that ankle injury may be lingering but its just a precaution to keep him healthy for week 1. Would like him to get all the reps with Lefwich as possible

nshelat1 said:

bumpman said:

Wilford has questionable hands as well.

Click to expand...

Very much so. He led the league in the catchable-balls/drops ratio last year. Link

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Thanks for the link! That thread really cracks me up. The Jag fans commenting on Wilford's catch ratio last year interpreted it as a POSITIVE because it shows how much UPSIDE Wilford has if he could just catch a few more darn balls!