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Anybody else think Joseph Addai is going to be a bust? (1 Viewer)

T

Thumper

Footballguy
I have to say how dissapointed I am in Addai. I drafted him in the 6th round of my draft and I am already regretting it.

Rhodes has already been named the starter for the first week. And my gut tells me he is going to keep that role for the foreseeable future.

I've seen all of his preseason games and he just doesn't seem that good. He looks slow and indiscive. I think it is going to take his rookie season for him to "get it" or he could be the next Ron Dayne.

Ok, maybe I'm getting carried away. But, I'm not getting good vibes from Addai.

 
rhodes was always the starter

it's preseason

i didn't see rhodes look good either. if you're concerned about addai i'm not sure you couldn't be concerned about rhodes either.

6th round is about right

if rhodes goes down he's a top 10 RB

guy was a 1st round pick and before he even plays his first down that counts we're ready to bury him? have some patience and let the season play out.

 
my man otis said:
rhodes was always the starter

it's preseason

i didn't see rhodes look good either. if you're concerned about addai i'm not sure you couldn't be concerned about rhodes either.

6th round is about right

if rhodes goes down he's a top 10 RB

guy was a 1st round pick and before he even plays his first down that counts we're ready to bury him? have some patience and let the season play out.
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no way
 
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Thumper said:
I drafted him in the 6th round of my draft and I am already regretting it.I've seen all of his preseason games and he just doesn't seem that good. He looks slow and indiscive.
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If you saw him run in the preseason, then why would you draft him in the 6th round?I'll never understand it. Stay away from rookies. I don't care what they did in college. I don't care how much hype they get. If you have to draft them early, they simply are not worth it. For every rookie that does well his first year, there are 100's of others that suck. It's simply not worth it. Stop doing it.
 
shadow2k said:
I'll never understand it. Stay away from rookies. I don't care what they did in college. I don't care how much hype they get. If you have to draft them early, they simply are not worth it. For every rookie that does well his first year, there are 100's of others that suck. It's simply not worth it. Stop doing it.
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I agree with this for every position except RB. It seems that every year there's at least one rookie RB who performs well, and this year offers several candidates in great situations - Addai, Bush, DeAngelo, Maroney, Mike Bell, etc.For other positions though, you're right, don't bother. Sure there are the occasional breakout rookie WRs like Randy Moss, Boldin, and Michael Clayton, but it's virtually impossible to predict when this will happen.
 
I think the bottom line is keeping PM upright. I don't think I would trust JA for that.

 
While I'm not ready to label Rhodes a steal at this point, I'm also not ready to call Addai a bust or the equivalent of Arrington.

We'll have to see how the first few weeks unfold.

 
my man otis said:
rhodes was always the starterit's preseasoni didn't see rhodes look good either. if you're concerned about addai i'm not sure you couldn't be concerned about rhodes either.6th round is about rightif rhodes goes down he's a top 10 RBguy was a 1st round pick and before he even plays his first down that counts we're ready to bury him? have some patience and let the season play out.
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So if Rhodes goes down and Addai is a top 10 RB,wouldn't that make Rhodes a top 10 RB right now?
 
i disagree. i think Addai will be the starter before the end of the season and liken him to Thurman Thomas. he has done a decent job learning what is required to pass block in the NFL and he has good hands, good speed, (something Rhodes lacks since two major knee surgeries).

i have not had my draft yet but hope to grab Addai late.

 
Josh the FunkDOC said:
shadow2k said:
I'll never understand it. Stay away from rookies. I don't care what they did in college. I don't care how much hype they get. If you have to draft them early, they simply are not worth it. For every rookie that does well his first year, there are 100's of others that suck. It's simply not worth it. Stop doing it.
Click to expand...
I agree with this for every position except RB. It seems that every year there's at least one rookie RB who performs well, and this year offers several candidates in great situations - Addai, Bush, DeAngelo, Maroney, Mike Bell, etc.For other positions though, you're right, don't bother. Sure there are the occasional breakout rookie WRs like Randy Moss, Boldin, and Michael Clayton, but it's virtually impossible to predict when this will happen.
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:confused: Actually, in redraft leagues, that's absolutely incorrect, unless you classify breaking the top 20 as a good performance. I recommend you read one of the freelance postings that was made on here that did a study on rookie running backs and their end-of-season ranking - and particularly pay close attention to the section entitled 'Value' - of the 19 running backs selected in the first 2 rounds over the last 4 years, only 1 (Clinton Portis) has significantly outperformed his ADP in his rookie season. Here's a link if you want to read...

How Valuable Are Rookie RB's?

In dynasty leagues, no argument - drafting rookie running backs cheaply and hitting the jackpot on 1 or 2 is one of the better ways of building a solid franchise cheaply, but rookies can't typically be expected to contribute right away, so you're already sacrificing at least 3-4 (and usually at least half a season) while they advance on their learning curve, particularly with guys like Addai, Maroney, and Williams.

On the other positions, rookie wide receivers (outside Randy Moss and Michael Clayton) are usually unmitigated disasters their rookie year. Unless you're taking them for roster fillers toward the end of the draft, stay away.

 
On The Rocks said:
i disagree. i think Addai will be the starter before the end of the season and liken him to Thurman Thomas. he has done a decent job learning what is required to pass block in the NFL and he has good hands, good speed, (something Rhodes lacks since two major knee surgeries).i have not had my draft yet but hope to grab Addai late.
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His ADP is late 4th round. That being said his standard deviation is huge. I saw him go in the early 2nd in one draft and in the late 7th in a different one. In that last example I took Rhodes at 7.09 and hoped to get Addai at 8.03, but Addia went in the very next slot at 7.10.
 
Mik789fl said:
my man otis said:
rhodes was always the starterit's preseasoni didn't see rhodes look good either. if you're concerned about addai i'm not sure you couldn't be concerned about rhodes either.6th round is about rightif rhodes goes down he's a top 10 RBguy was a 1st round pick and before he even plays his first down that counts we're ready to bury him? have some patience and let the season play out.
Click to expand...
So if Rhodes goes down and Addai is a top 10 RB,wouldn't that make Rhodes a top 10 RB right now?
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No! I am a Colts season ticket holder and although that doesn't mean much, I can guarantee you this... Rhodes WILL not be asked to carry the Colts like Edge was occasionally. This alone will keep Rhodes from top 10 status.I do like Rhodes and I would definitely put him in the top 20 and possibly top 12-13. However, to say top 10 is a mistake.And I make these comments assuming Addai stays healthy.Rhodes has been and will be the started this year barring injury.
 
Buckna said:
On The Rocks said:
i disagree. i think Addai will be the starter before the end of the season and liken him to Thurman Thomas. he has done a decent job learning what is required to pass block in the NFL and he has good hands, good speed, (something Rhodes lacks since two major knee surgeries).i have not had my draft yet but hope to grab Addai late.
Click to expand...
His ADP is late 4th round. That being said his standard deviation is huge. I saw him go in the early 2nd in one draft and in the late 7th in a different one. In that last example I took Rhodes at 7.09 and hoped to get Addai at 8.03, but Addia went in the very next slot at 7.10.
Click to expand...
You got a tremendous bargain! and Addai at 7.10 is too high in comparison.
 
Sandeman said:
my man otis said:
rhodes was always the starter

it's preseason

i didn't see rhodes look good either. if you're concerned about addai i'm not sure you couldn't be concerned about rhodes either.

6th round is about right

if rhodes goes down he's a top 10 RB

guy was a 1st round pick and before he even plays his first down that counts we're ready to bury him? have some patience and let the season play out.
Click to expand...
no way
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how will he been top 10 when he cannot even win the job. Overvaluing rookies :bag:
 
Patoons said:
lions327 said:
Joseph Addai = JJ Arrington
Click to expand...
:goodposting:Addai is pure outside speed- I don't think that is going to translate too well in the NFL.
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Is that why coaches like his inside running better than that of Rhodes. His pass blocking is better than Rhodes and he's picked up the system. I wouldn't be scared. It's not like Rhodes was busting 20-30-40-50 plus yard runs in the preseason. Even Dungy admited that defenses were forcing them to pass by stuffing the box in the preseason. Anyone who pushes the panic button overvalues the preseason. This thread is ridiculous.
 
RoosterScott said:
Patoons said:
lions327 said:
Joseph Addai = JJ Arrington
Click to expand...
:goodposting:Addai is pure outside speed- I don't think that is going to translate too well in the NFL.
Click to expand...
Is that why coaches like his inside running better than that of Rhodes. His pass blocking is better than Rhodes and he's picked up the system. I wouldn't be scared. It's not like Rhodes was busting 20-30-40-50 plus yard runs in the preseason. Even Dungy admited that defenses were forcing them to pass by stuffing the box in the preseason. Anyone who pushes the panic button overvalues the preseason. This thread is ridiculous.
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That's a great strategy. If I was an NFL coach, that's exactly what I'd do is stuff the box against the run by fearing Rhodes/Addai and make Peyton Manning beat me. This thread is ridiculous, thanks. :loco:
 
lions327 said:
Joseph Addai = JJ Arrington
Click to expand...
I've heard this WAY too much. Has any one who says his ever SEEN Addai run? He's a great inside runner. He is NOT just ouside speed. This has got to be the worst player comparison I've ever heard.Addai MAY be a bust, but he is NOTHING like Arrington.
 
There are three problems with Rhodes: He's small, he's injury prone, and he has fumbled 1 out of every 40 carries in his career (which is awful).

Rhodes may start the first few games - but who finishes the season - that is yet to be determined. I'm still not sold on Rhodes as lasting the season as the starter.

 
switz said:
lions327 said:
Joseph Addai = JJ Arrington
Click to expand...
I've heard this WAY too much. Has any one who says his ever SEEN Addai run? He's a great inside runner. He is NOT just ouside speed. This has got to be the worst player comparison I've ever heard.Addai MAY be a bust, but he is NOTHING like Arrington.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Still a long way to go before he is a star or bust in the NFL, but he is a willing (and successful at the NCAA ranks) inside runner and outstanding reciever. JJ was neither of these things.Addai has gotten praise from the coach, QB, and everyone else on his ability to pick up the offense, pass block, and catch the ball. Judging him on only 20 or so carries over 4 games, with so many other things rookies typically struggle with seemingly no issue for Addai, does seem premature at best.
 
In one of my leagues (10 teamer) Addai went with the 6.6 pick. I took Rhodes with the 14.1 pick.

 
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Mighty Mice said:
switz said:
lions327 said:
Joseph Addai = JJ Arrington
Click to expand...
I've heard this WAY too much. Has any one who says his ever SEEN Addai run? He's a great inside runner. He is NOT just ouside speed. This has got to be the worst player comparison I've ever heard.Addai MAY be a bust, but he is NOTHING like Arrington.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Still a long way to go before he is a star or bust in the NFL, but he is a willing (and successful at the NCAA ranks) inside runner and outstanding reciever. JJ was neither of these things.

Addai has gotten praise from the coach, QB, and everyone else on his ability to pick up the offense, pass block, and catch the ball. Judging him on only 20 or so carries over 4 games, with so many other things rookies typically struggle with seemingly no issue for Addai, does seem premature at best.
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yep :goodposting: indeedand lookie here

it looks to me like the kid has a great skill set... speed, power, drive, stop and go/shifty... and it seems i've heard more about his blocking in reports than the swiftness i see in those clips... that's a good sign he'll be on the field quite a bit

 
bonesman said:
Mighty Mice said:
switz said:
lions327 said:
Joseph Addai = JJ Arrington
Click to expand...
I've heard this WAY too much. Has any one who says his ever SEEN Addai run? He's a great inside runner. He is NOT just ouside speed. This has got to be the worst player comparison I've ever heard.Addai MAY be a bust, but he is NOTHING like Arrington.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Still a long way to go before he is a star or bust in the NFL, but he is a willing (and successful at the NCAA ranks) inside runner and outstanding reciever. JJ was neither of these things.

Addai has gotten praise from the coach, QB, and everyone else on his ability to pick up the offense, pass block, and catch the ball. Judging him on only 20 or so carries over 4 games, with so many other things rookies typically struggle with seemingly no issue for Addai, does seem premature at best.
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yep :goodposting: indeedand lookie here

Click to expand...
Very unimpressive ...I wish I had seen this before I drafted Addai. He looks slow and Upright. Does Show some power but that won't work for him in the NFL.
 
Josh the FunkDOC said:
shadow2k said:
I'll never understand it. Stay away from rookies. I don't care what they did in college. I don't care how much hype they get. If you have to draft them early, they simply are not worth it. For every rookie that does well his first year, there are 100's of others that suck. It's simply not worth it. Stop doing it.
Click to expand...
I agree with this for every position except RB. It seems that every year there's at least one rookie RB who performs well, and this year offers several candidates in great situations - Addai, Bush, DeAngelo, Maroney, Mike Bell, etc.For other positions though, you're right, don't bother. Sure there are the occasional breakout rookie WRs like Randy Moss, Boldin, and Michael Clayton, but it's virtually impossible to predict when this will happen.
Click to expand...
That bolded part you see is exactly the problem. One probably will perform well. Unfortunately, you listed five guys. That's an 80% chance your pick busts. And that's only if the rookie performer actually comes from that group of guys, and not someone else like Norwood, Lundy, or even someone that none of us are thinking about.But let's assume one of the five you listed gets 1,000yds rushing. That's basically going to take at least 50% of the teams rushes to get there (4ypc x 250ru = 1,000yds). And really, who's the only back that is currently in a situation that will give him 16+ rushes over 16 games? Mike Bell...the only one of those five who people haven't been drooling over since the NFL draft (or even before then).

FWIW, I don't own Bell, and don't really believe in him either. I don't put stock into any of these guys. I didn't draft any rookies at all. One rookie RB probably will crack 1,000yds. But I'm not going to gamble an early to mid-round pick trying to figure out which one it will be.

 
qimqam said:
bonesman said:
Mighty Mice said:
switz said:
Joseph Addai = JJ Arrington
Click to expand...
I've heard this WAY too much. Has any one who says his ever SEEN Addai run? He's a great inside runner. He is NOT just ouside speed. This has got to be the worst player comparison I've ever heard.Addai MAY be a bust, but he is NOTHING like Arrington.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Still a long way to go before he is a star or bust in the NFL, but he is a willing (and successful at the NCAA ranks) inside runner and outstanding reciever. JJ was neither of these things.

Addai has gotten praise from the coach, QB, and everyone else on his ability to pick up the offense, pass block, and catch the ball. Judging him on only 20 or so carries over 4 games, with so many other things rookies typically struggle with seemingly no issue for Addai, does seem premature at best.
Click to expand...
yep :goodposting: indeedand lookie here

Click to expand...
What more were you looking for? He seems quite a legit RB threat to me.
 
I dont think a bust there can be in the offense that is the colts.

If your expecting RB1 numbers your going to be dissapointed. He is the backup RB at this point in a RBBC system.

If you are expecting excellent RBBC #s I think your going to hit your goal.

 
Fla\/\/ed said:
Not too bad for Addai today. It appears Addai>Arrington.
Click to expand...
Addai is def, no arrington - and i think he'll eventually take over the job, but it was still a lot of split time with Dom Rhodes.This looks like RBBC for a while.
 
Bad_Mo said:
Its the Jets defense for Godsake. Really need to bump this?
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Yes, because calling Addai "J. J. Arrington Jr." implies that Addai was going to be WORSE than J. J. Arrington.Arrington's rookie season:370 rushing yards, 3.3 yards a carry, 2 TDs.Addai's 1st 4 games:207 rushing yards, 4.5 yards a carry, 2 total TDs.Just 164 rushing yards and one TD to go! :rolleyes:
 
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Bad_Mo said:
Its the Jets defense for Godsake. Really need to bump this?
Click to expand...
Really? You mean the other statistically impressive games were against the Jets too? I didn't know.I have a feeling this thread will get bumped quite a bit as the season goes on and Addai gets more and more plaing time.
 
I don't really know what to think about Addai right now. I spot-started him in one keeper league, and not only trade him away in the other, but almost started spot-Rhodes.

The one thing I did notice is that Rhodes seemed to get the early, softening the defense carries, while Addai has looked much better, but later in the game. Usually that means two things - one, that we don't really know how good the mop up guy is, and two, that the team has more respect for the starter than we probably do as fantasy owners.

FWIW, I have some of the same concerns about Maroney, only less so.

 
Small Hijack

Does anyone else think Arrington is getting screwed here? He was picked on a team with the absolute worse O-line in football. They tried to make improvements and yet they still are horrible. Is Edge as bad of a player as that o-line makes him out to be....No. I would like to see Arrington get another chance somewhere.

As far as Addai... the kid gives it his all and is a tough runner, he will be fine.

 
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bostonfred said:
I don't really know what to think about Addai right now. I spot-started him in one keeper league, and not only trade him away in the other, but almost started spot-Rhodes. The one thing I did notice is that Rhodes seemed to get the early, softening the defense carries, while Addai has looked much better, but later in the game. Usually that means two things - one, that we don't really know how good the mop up guy is, and two, that the team has more respect for the starter than we probably do as fantasy owners. FWIW, I have some of the same concerns about Maroney, only less so.
Click to expand...
Rhodes was indeed the guy early on, but Addai came in for the 3rd series (during the 1st quarter). Thus it doesn't appear to be a mop-up type of thing.The other thing that stood out was that Addai was the RB during the last two series of the game. Granted, some of that may have been due to his acumen in the passing game, but it also may have indicated that Dungy is trusting him when the game is on the line.
 
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ATC1 said:
Small HijackDoes anyone else think Arrington is getting screwed here? He was picked on a team with the absolute worse O-line in football. They tried to make improvements and yet they still are horrible. Is Edge as bad of a player as that o-line makes him out to be....No. I would like to see Arrington get another chance somewhere.
Click to expand...
Hard to say, although I imagine if Denny Green thought it was almost entirely the OL's fault, he wouldn't have aggressively gone after Edge. Clearly there were some delinquencies in Arrington's game that extended beyond the OL.
 
ATC1 said:
Small HijackDoes anyone else think Arrington is getting screwed here? He was picked on a team with the absolute worse O-line in football. They tried to make improvements and yet they still are horrible. Is Edge as bad of a player as that o-line makes him out to be....No. I would like to see Arrington get another chance somewhere.
Click to expand...
Garrison Hearst and Thomas Jones did!
 
zamboni said:
The other thing that stood out was that Addai was the RB during the last two series of the game. Granted, some of that may have been due to his acumen in the passing game, but it also may have indicated that Dungy is trusting him when the game is on the line.
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:thumbup:Which back is on the field with the game on the line is a VERY important issue.See: Tatum Bell. As I mentioned several times in the Bell threads, even though MB and TB were being swapped quite a bit through the first two games, TB was in the game for all the "important" carries. TB won the start the following week.I thiink Addai getting the "important" carries may indicate a switch from Rhodes as starter to Addai as starter - carries might still be split for a game or two, but I bet Dungy, ala Shanahan, wants one of those guys to seize the reins and cement down the feature back role
 
zamboni said:
bostonfred said:
I don't really know what to think about Addai right now. I spot-started him in one keeper league, and not only trade him away in the other, but almost started spot-Rhodes.

The one thing I did notice is that Rhodes seemed to get the early, softening the defense carries, while Addai has looked much better, but later in the game. Usually that means two things - one, that we don't really know how good the mop up guy is, and two, that the team has more respect for the starter than we probably do as fantasy owners.

FWIW, I have some of the same concerns about Maroney, only less so.
Click to expand...
Rhodes was indeed the guy early on, but Addai came in for the 3rd series (during the 1st quarter). Thus it doesn't appear to be a mop-up type of thing.The other thing that stood out was that Addai was the RB during the last two series of the game. Granted, some of that may have been due to his acumen in the passing game, but it also may have indicated that Dungy is trusting him when the game is on the line.
Click to expand...
Rhodes 6Rhodes 5

Rhodes 6 TOUCHDOWN

--- KICKOFF

Rhodes 8

Rhodes 3

(Manning sack, bringing up 2nd and 22)

Rhodes 7

--- PUNT

Addai 8

Addai 7

Addai 2

Addai 4

Addai (drops pass)

-- PUNT

Addai 4

Addai 3

(incomplete pass)

-- PUNT

Rhodes 9

Rhodes 2

Rhodes 2

Addai reception 4

Addai 2 TOUCHDOWN

-- KICKOFF

Rhodes 3

Rhodes 3

-- PUNT

Addai 1

Addai 7

Addai 5

Addai 10

Addai 5

Addai 4

Rhodes 16 (from the 23)

Rhodes 6 (1st and goal from the 7)

Rhodes 1 (2nd and goal from the 1)

Rhodes -2 (3rd and goal from the 1)

-- FIELD GOAL

Addai reception 6

Addai 6

Addai 2 (on 1st and 10)

Addai 2 (on 2nd and 8)

(Manning pass for first down)

Addai 4

Addai 15

Addai 4 (first and goal on the 8)

Addai 2 (second and goal on the 4)

(Manning pass for a TD)

-- KICKOFF

Addai reception 5

1st and goal on the 1 Manning audibles, rushes it in himself

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/playbyplay/N...0061001_IND@NYJ

From the looks of it, through the first five Colts possessions, Rhodes looked better, averaging over 5 YPC, while Addai averaged 4.0 YPC. Both had two chances at the goal line. Rhodes had the longest carry of the game, Addai got more carries late, and got the receptions, and Manning still called his own number or a pass play at the goal line. I don't see a lot distinguishing the two here, but that's just me.

 
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