David Dodds
Administrator
I had hoped to pen the Perfect WCOFF Draft and time just got away from me. Hopefully next year, I can get get it all to paper.
Key Reference Material (Print out before your WCOFF Draft):
WCOFF Drafting Ranges
WCOFF ADP
In preparation for this piece though I will try my best to outline the biggest pieces of the strategy.
1. You need to approach this draft as trying to end up with the best team out of 800+ that will be playing. This is possibly the most important point. Beating 11 owners and qualifying for the big dance with a roster that can never win the event should not be the desired effort. Things that work in your normal 12 team league can be counter-productive to fielding a winning WCOFF team.
Specifically, I think these things are LOSING plays in WCOFF:
- Elite Handcuffs (The owners that won the big bucks last year had Shaun Alexander (or Tomlinson) AND Larry Johnson. Teams that took Priest Holmes AND Larry Johnson had a safe roster, but one that could never truly be elite because it took a 1st and 5th/6th round pick to get this handcuff.
This year plays like Foster/Williams (Car), Rhodes/Addai (Ind) and Bell/Bell (Den) should be avoided as tandums. Center in on the one player you expect to be best of the two and use just one roster spot. Think of it like this: 70ish teams will have DeAngelo Williams on their roster. Let's say Foster breaks a leg in week 3 and Williams is a top 12 RB the rest of the way. Let's also say all 70 teams got Williams in the 7th round. Which teams do you think IMMEDIATELY catapult to being WCOFF powerhouses? Likely the teams that just had Williams because they drafted other key CORE players. The teams that drafted both Foster and Williams have lost one of their stars already. It's doubtful that these handcuffed teams will compete for the title.
- Taking a QB before round 7. This has to do with the rules (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex + PPR). Take a look at how things change for the top QB as the rules change (from the VBD App):
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Manning = 8 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Manning = 13 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, PPR) - Manning - 28 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (flex, PPR) - Manning - 32 overall (WCOFF Rules)
All of the top QBs will be taken too early. Wait until the 8th round and then get ready to pounce on one of the best players left.
- Taking a TE early. Every year someone flying way below the radar at TE puts up solid numbers. Using a third rounder for someone like Gates will have you lagging behind all the owners that fielded a productive TE after round 10.
- Drafting a second QB, first defense and/or first PK in the first 2/3 of the draft The RBs and WRs are going to dry up. You need to have your share of these players to improve your chances that one emerges. Use your last picks to secure your second QB and first PK and defense. Do not draft more than one kicker or defense.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I looked at a bunch of winning rosters and believe the winning teams had this in common:
1. After 5 rounds, they had either 2 RBs/3WRs or 3 RBs/2 WRs. Both strategies seem effective.
2. Drafting RB, RB, RB with your first three picks is generally a LOSING strategy.
3. The most common winning team design started with the first four picks as follows:
RB, WR, RB, WR and RB, WR, WR, RB
4. Winning teams roster a LOT of WRs. With the ability to start 4 on any given week, the WR position is VERY valuable in this format.
5. Winning teams had a solid CORE (first 6 picks) and many fliers AFTER that. These teams also were very active in the blind bidding process through the season.
6. Some of their HOMERUNS hit (either by the draft or waivers) to give them a very solid lineup every week. These homeruns by definition are not value picks. They are swings for the fences. Most end up being whiffs, but some (when hit) catapult teams to the top of this event.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Digging Deep:
I tried to analyze the players that I think could represent homeruns based on their draft position. I define a homerun as someone who performs so well that they immediately surpass one of your top 5 picks. I think it's critical to try and land a few of these on your team. If a couple hit, you should have an elite roster.
Here are the guys that I think could CRUSH their ADP with the right opportunity (listed in position order only):
- QB Matt Leinart, Ari - The question is WHEN does Warner get hurt. The Cardinals have an easy schedule and should put up great passing stats all year.
- QB Jay Cutler, Den - I am convinced this rookie is better than Plummer NOW. If he gets a chance to start, he won't give this job up.
- QB Brett Favre, GB - He is no spring chicken, but this team will be forced to throw. His bad preseason has dropped him so far that it's almost criminal to draft him so late.
- QB Jon Kitna, Det - Anytime your offensive coordinator is Mike Martz, you need to pay attention. Expect the Lions to throw for a lot of passing yards. Martz might have been a bad head coach, but he is a mastermind at running a complex passing offense.
- RB Michael Turner, SD - He will be a starter in this league possibly as early as next year. No one is questioning his talent. His low ADP is based entirely on being logjammed behind superstud LaDainian Tomlinson. LT has a lot of mileage in his short career. IF he were to miss signicant time to injury, Turner would likely become a Top 10 back.
- RB Laurence Maroney, NE - In my opinion, this kid is already better than Corey Dillon. He just needs to be named the starter.
- RB Deangelo Williams, Car - If the preseason is any indication, he has a rare gear that could lead to a lot of long scores. If Foster were to miss even a game due to injury, Williams might open the door all he needs to wrestle away the starting gig.
- RB Jerious Norwood, Atl - The team saw enough skills to move Duckett in the offseason. Has just an aging Warrick Dunn in front of him.
- RB Jerome Harrison, Cle - When in doubt go young when swinging for the fences. He has looked great in the preseason. It's possible he leapfrogs Droughns during the season.
- RB Maurice Drew, Jax - Somewhat logjammed at RB, but predicting a Fred Taylor injury isn't too far-fetched.
- RB Vernand Morency, Hou - Something tells me this Lundy/Morency thing is not over. In my opinion, Morency provides for a bigger homerun play in the game and is the better blocker. Those are two things it sounds like the Texans will need.
- RB Derrick Blaylock, NYJ - He is officially a starting RB today. If he starts hot, he could be gold.
- RB Cedric Cobbs, Den - Weirder things have happened in Denver. The Denver system has provided great RB stats for years. A key fumble by Mike Bell and Cobbs could get a shot.
- RB Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Tiki is very old. Old backs break down. Jacobs displayed skills during the preseason.
- RB Michael Bennett, KC - Any back that sits behind Larry Johnson could be worth a lot if LJ went down to injury.
- WR Greg Jennings, GB - This rookie was good enough to make the starting lineup before week 1. All the reports out of the camps were glowing about him. We expect Favre to throw the ball a lot this year. Driver is also nursuing a sore hamstring. Connect the dots and you have a strong homerun threat.
- WR Bryant Johnson, Ari - Everyone knows about the dynamic duo (Boldin and Fitz). But Johnson can play too. If one of the big two were to get nicked, Johnson would soar up the rankings.
- WR Troy Williamson, Min - He looks to be the most explosive of the Minnesota WRs. He was drafted to be the deep threat. Maybe he realizes hisdream with a breakout season.
- WR Drew Carter, Car - Logjammed behind Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson, but he has solid skills. Just needs the chance.
- WR Brandon Marshall, Den - He is flying way below the radar. Will need an injury to either Rod Smith or Javon Walker to get on the field though.
- WR Chris Henry, Cin - TJ looks like he may miss week 1. What happens if Chris Henry catches 5 passes for 100 yards and 2 scores? He has the talent (and great QB play) to be a top WR if named to a starting spot.
- WR Samie Parker, KC - Trent Green just goes out and throws for 4,000 yards every year. Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzalez are on the final stages of their careers. So maybe the younger Parker explodes onto the scene this season.
- WR Marques Colston, NO - Who? Exactly. He was good enough that the Saints sent Stallworth packing. Most of us don't know enough to assess this situation. But that has kept his value super low. That could all change once a game is played. Horn looks to have lost a step.
- TE Ben Troupe, Ten - He is going super late in drafts, but has very nice skills.
- TE Tony Scheffler, Den - Remember Shannon Sharpe? We do. Denver's coach Shanahan loves to involve the TE. He is getting rave reviews from the coaches, but is still a complete unknown in fantasy circles. Perhaps he is the hidden gem at TE that catapults your team.
- TE Ben Watson, NE - Unfortunately his value continues to shrink in drafts, but he could produce top numbers at the position. If you get a good WCOFF league, maybe you can get him at a reasonable price.
I am sure there are others too that I am overlooking. The most common trait to these homerun threats? They are young, but have displayed talent already. Talent finds a way to get on the field. And if they get the opportunity, they may not be asked to give the starting role back.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Putting it all together.
1. Look to have 2 RBs and 3 WRs or 3 RBs and 2 WRs after 5 rounds. Avoid choosing a QB or TE this early. Do not draft RB, RB, RB with your first three picks. It will cost you too much production at the WR position.
2. Load up on homerun threats once you have established a core team that can be counted on. To be the best team you are going to need a few of these to hit.
3. Don't grab an early defense, kicker, backup QB or backup TE. All of these positions can be acquired cheaply on the waiver wire.
4. Take a shot early in the season on the waiver wire. Anquan Boldin and Willie Parker were two huge homeruns that hit after week 1 success in past years. Be ready to spend 85% of your waiver cap on a special player by week 3.
5. Wins are harder early. Everyone is trying their best. Once some teams go 0-4, wins are easier. Make sure your players have easy early schedules (Clayton Grays' Out of the Gate article in the FBG magazine will point you in the right direction).
OK that's it. Best of luck to all attending this event. Let's have a FBG win this thing.
Key Reference Material (Print out before your WCOFF Draft):
WCOFF Drafting Ranges
WCOFF ADP
In preparation for this piece though I will try my best to outline the biggest pieces of the strategy.
1. You need to approach this draft as trying to end up with the best team out of 800+ that will be playing. This is possibly the most important point. Beating 11 owners and qualifying for the big dance with a roster that can never win the event should not be the desired effort. Things that work in your normal 12 team league can be counter-productive to fielding a winning WCOFF team.
Specifically, I think these things are LOSING plays in WCOFF:
- Elite Handcuffs (The owners that won the big bucks last year had Shaun Alexander (or Tomlinson) AND Larry Johnson. Teams that took Priest Holmes AND Larry Johnson had a safe roster, but one that could never truly be elite because it took a 1st and 5th/6th round pick to get this handcuff.
This year plays like Foster/Williams (Car), Rhodes/Addai (Ind) and Bell/Bell (Den) should be avoided as tandums. Center in on the one player you expect to be best of the two and use just one roster spot. Think of it like this: 70ish teams will have DeAngelo Williams on their roster. Let's say Foster breaks a leg in week 3 and Williams is a top 12 RB the rest of the way. Let's also say all 70 teams got Williams in the 7th round. Which teams do you think IMMEDIATELY catapult to being WCOFF powerhouses? Likely the teams that just had Williams because they drafted other key CORE players. The teams that drafted both Foster and Williams have lost one of their stars already. It's doubtful that these handcuffed teams will compete for the title.
- Taking a QB before round 7. This has to do with the rules (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex + PPR). Take a look at how things change for the top QB as the rules change (from the VBD App):
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Manning = 8 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Manning = 13 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, PPR) - Manning - 28 overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (flex, PPR) - Manning - 32 overall (WCOFF Rules)
All of the top QBs will be taken too early. Wait until the 8th round and then get ready to pounce on one of the best players left.
- Taking a TE early. Every year someone flying way below the radar at TE puts up solid numbers. Using a third rounder for someone like Gates will have you lagging behind all the owners that fielded a productive TE after round 10.
- Drafting a second QB, first defense and/or first PK in the first 2/3 of the draft The RBs and WRs are going to dry up. You need to have your share of these players to improve your chances that one emerges. Use your last picks to secure your second QB and first PK and defense. Do not draft more than one kicker or defense.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I looked at a bunch of winning rosters and believe the winning teams had this in common:
1. After 5 rounds, they had either 2 RBs/3WRs or 3 RBs/2 WRs. Both strategies seem effective.
2. Drafting RB, RB, RB with your first three picks is generally a LOSING strategy.
3. The most common winning team design started with the first four picks as follows:
RB, WR, RB, WR and RB, WR, WR, RB
4. Winning teams roster a LOT of WRs. With the ability to start 4 on any given week, the WR position is VERY valuable in this format.
5. Winning teams had a solid CORE (first 6 picks) and many fliers AFTER that. These teams also were very active in the blind bidding process through the season.
6. Some of their HOMERUNS hit (either by the draft or waivers) to give them a very solid lineup every week. These homeruns by definition are not value picks. They are swings for the fences. Most end up being whiffs, but some (when hit) catapult teams to the top of this event.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Digging Deep:
I tried to analyze the players that I think could represent homeruns based on their draft position. I define a homerun as someone who performs so well that they immediately surpass one of your top 5 picks. I think it's critical to try and land a few of these on your team. If a couple hit, you should have an elite roster.
Here are the guys that I think could CRUSH their ADP with the right opportunity (listed in position order only):
- QB Matt Leinart, Ari - The question is WHEN does Warner get hurt. The Cardinals have an easy schedule and should put up great passing stats all year.
- QB Jay Cutler, Den - I am convinced this rookie is better than Plummer NOW. If he gets a chance to start, he won't give this job up.
- QB Brett Favre, GB - He is no spring chicken, but this team will be forced to throw. His bad preseason has dropped him so far that it's almost criminal to draft him so late.
- QB Jon Kitna, Det - Anytime your offensive coordinator is Mike Martz, you need to pay attention. Expect the Lions to throw for a lot of passing yards. Martz might have been a bad head coach, but he is a mastermind at running a complex passing offense.
- RB Michael Turner, SD - He will be a starter in this league possibly as early as next year. No one is questioning his talent. His low ADP is based entirely on being logjammed behind superstud LaDainian Tomlinson. LT has a lot of mileage in his short career. IF he were to miss signicant time to injury, Turner would likely become a Top 10 back.
- RB Laurence Maroney, NE - In my opinion, this kid is already better than Corey Dillon. He just needs to be named the starter.
- RB Deangelo Williams, Car - If the preseason is any indication, he has a rare gear that could lead to a lot of long scores. If Foster were to miss even a game due to injury, Williams might open the door all he needs to wrestle away the starting gig.
- RB Jerious Norwood, Atl - The team saw enough skills to move Duckett in the offseason. Has just an aging Warrick Dunn in front of him.
- RB Jerome Harrison, Cle - When in doubt go young when swinging for the fences. He has looked great in the preseason. It's possible he leapfrogs Droughns during the season.
- RB Maurice Drew, Jax - Somewhat logjammed at RB, but predicting a Fred Taylor injury isn't too far-fetched.
- RB Vernand Morency, Hou - Something tells me this Lundy/Morency thing is not over. In my opinion, Morency provides for a bigger homerun play in the game and is the better blocker. Those are two things it sounds like the Texans will need.
- RB Derrick Blaylock, NYJ - He is officially a starting RB today. If he starts hot, he could be gold.
- RB Cedric Cobbs, Den - Weirder things have happened in Denver. The Denver system has provided great RB stats for years. A key fumble by Mike Bell and Cobbs could get a shot.
- RB Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Tiki is very old. Old backs break down. Jacobs displayed skills during the preseason.
- RB Michael Bennett, KC - Any back that sits behind Larry Johnson could be worth a lot if LJ went down to injury.
- WR Greg Jennings, GB - This rookie was good enough to make the starting lineup before week 1. All the reports out of the camps were glowing about him. We expect Favre to throw the ball a lot this year. Driver is also nursuing a sore hamstring. Connect the dots and you have a strong homerun threat.
- WR Bryant Johnson, Ari - Everyone knows about the dynamic duo (Boldin and Fitz). But Johnson can play too. If one of the big two were to get nicked, Johnson would soar up the rankings.
- WR Troy Williamson, Min - He looks to be the most explosive of the Minnesota WRs. He was drafted to be the deep threat. Maybe he realizes hisdream with a breakout season.
- WR Drew Carter, Car - Logjammed behind Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson, but he has solid skills. Just needs the chance.
- WR Brandon Marshall, Den - He is flying way below the radar. Will need an injury to either Rod Smith or Javon Walker to get on the field though.
- WR Chris Henry, Cin - TJ looks like he may miss week 1. What happens if Chris Henry catches 5 passes for 100 yards and 2 scores? He has the talent (and great QB play) to be a top WR if named to a starting spot.
- WR Samie Parker, KC - Trent Green just goes out and throws for 4,000 yards every year. Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzalez are on the final stages of their careers. So maybe the younger Parker explodes onto the scene this season.
- WR Marques Colston, NO - Who? Exactly. He was good enough that the Saints sent Stallworth packing. Most of us don't know enough to assess this situation. But that has kept his value super low. That could all change once a game is played. Horn looks to have lost a step.
- TE Ben Troupe, Ten - He is going super late in drafts, but has very nice skills.
- TE Tony Scheffler, Den - Remember Shannon Sharpe? We do. Denver's coach Shanahan loves to involve the TE. He is getting rave reviews from the coaches, but is still a complete unknown in fantasy circles. Perhaps he is the hidden gem at TE that catapults your team.
- TE Ben Watson, NE - Unfortunately his value continues to shrink in drafts, but he could produce top numbers at the position. If you get a good WCOFF league, maybe you can get him at a reasonable price.
I am sure there are others too that I am overlooking. The most common trait to these homerun threats? They are young, but have displayed talent already. Talent finds a way to get on the field. And if they get the opportunity, they may not be asked to give the starting role back.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Putting it all together.
1. Look to have 2 RBs and 3 WRs or 3 RBs and 2 WRs after 5 rounds. Avoid choosing a QB or TE this early. Do not draft RB, RB, RB with your first three picks. It will cost you too much production at the WR position.
2. Load up on homerun threats once you have established a core team that can be counted on. To be the best team you are going to need a few of these to hit.
3. Don't grab an early defense, kicker, backup QB or backup TE. All of these positions can be acquired cheaply on the waiver wire.
4. Take a shot early in the season on the waiver wire. Anquan Boldin and Willie Parker were two huge homeruns that hit after week 1 success in past years. Be ready to spend 85% of your waiver cap on a special player by week 3.
5. Wins are harder early. Everyone is trying their best. Once some teams go 0-4, wins are easier. Make sure your players have easy early schedules (Clayton Grays' Out of the Gate article in the FBG magazine will point you in the right direction).
OK that's it. Best of luck to all attending this event. Let's have a FBG win this thing.
Last edited by a moderator:
good post Dave. Agree that you should wait on TE, but don't miss the chance if a guy like Shockey slides to the 5/6 turn for example.
where did you get maroney?I don't agree with drafting a WR in the first round.
i wouldn't go, always have family plansi think a lot more people have local drafts on labor day weekend as well. as i said in a different post, in the 2nd year WCOFF thought about moving the draft up a week to labor day weekend, and the majority was overwhelmingly against it. drafting on Saturday and watching all the games the next day with guys in your own league is really a great experience.
