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Don't you think Pennington's performance was a fluke? (1 Viewer)

L

Lemmiwinks

Footballguy
Lots of people are putting in high claims on Chad Pennington. My question is why? Because he dominated a pee-wee pass defense?

Pennington has a twice surgically repaired arm that was a wet noodle even before it was torn apart. His offensive line is suspect, running game is non-existent and WR are well below average. When this guy plays a real defense he is going to get TORN UP.

 
Colin Dowling said:
Pennington's career stats tend to disprove your theory. When healthy, he is actually a fine QB.Colin
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Pennington's career stats came with a guy named Curtis Martin taking the pressure off, a much better offensive line and a healthy (albeit very weak) right shoulder.Career stats are actually misleading here. Way too much has changed for the worse to still consider this guy a fantasy option in anything but the deepest of leagues.
 
I have Pennington in the subscriber contest; I think he's very likely to have a good season. He won't go for 319/2 every week, but the Jets will pass more than they have in the past, and Pennington has shown himself to be an accurate QB who makes good decisions. Their receiving corps is also fairly solid, certainly better than it was in 2004 when he put up 65.4% completions, 2673 yards, 16 TD and 9 INT in 13 games. I'd say those numbers, annualized, are a floor for him this year: 3300 yards, 20 TD.

 
Colin Dowling said:
Pennington's career stats tend to disprove your theory. When healthy, he is actually a fine QB.Colin
Click to expand...
I agree. I did some rough calculations to scale his career stats to a 16-game season. I came up with 3,400 yards, 22 TD, 12 INT. He has to say healthy, of course, but that's a problem for all NFL QBs (ask Trent Green).
 
I like him a lot when healthy. He always struck me as a winner on the field -- a smart guy who makes good decisions (as opposed to someone like Aaron Brooks, who has all the physical talent in the world but doesn't have the head).

I hope he's healthy, would like to see what he can do.

 
I have no idea why you'd worry about his arm. Pennington showed on Sunday that he can take a hit, and that his arm is as strong as ever. His arm strength and his previous shoulder injuries should not be a concern whatsoever anymore.

If you think he's more likely to get hurt again because he's not durable or the shoulder is more likely to get injured again because of the past, that's fine -- although I'd disagree with both theories. But there's no point in worrying about the lingering effects of the old surgeries. His arm looks great.

 
Lemmiwinks said:
Colin Dowling said:
Pennington's career stats tend to disprove your theory. When healthy, he is actually a fine QB.Colin
Click to expand...
Pennington's career stats came with a guy named Curtis Martin taking the pressure off, a much better offensive line and a healthy (albeit very weak) right shoulder.Career stats are actually misleading here. Way too much has changed for the worse to still consider this guy a fantasy option in anything but the deepest of leagues.
Click to expand...
Well, factoring in the changes you mentioned, his sample under those circumstances (i.e.: last Sunday) seems to suggest he's a fine fantasy option.
 
So were you guys big Pennington supporters before the season or is it this one game against a very very bad pass defense that changed your mind?

One game is a very small sample.

 
Lemmiwinks said:
So were you guys big Pennington supporters before the season or is it this one game against a very very bad pass defense that changed your mind?One game is a very small sample.
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It depends what you were looking for. If Reggie Bush tore his ACL, but in the opener next year ran as fast as ever, was as nimble as ever, and as quick as ever, that'd go a long way towards worrying about whether or not he recovered. Pennington's stats aren't nearly as important as the evidence that's he now 100% back. And that's a big deal.
 
You Pennington lovers are grossly mistaken. I was at the game, please review the coverages in place by the Titans. They played off of the WRs most of the day. 10-12 yard cushion is just too much against a weak armed QB like Chad.

I can't wait to see everyone disappear after a few more weeks.

Feel free to bump this post!

If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.

 
Lemmiwinks said:
So were you guys big Pennington supporters before the season or is it this one game against a very very bad pass defense that changed your mind?One game is a very small sample.
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As I said, I chose Pennington in the subscriber contest, as someone who I have projected to be near the top 10 but was available very cheaply.
 
pizzatyme said:
You Pennington lovers are grossly mistaken. I was at the game, please review the coverages in place by the Titans. They played off of the WRs most of the day. 10-12 yard cushion is just too much against a weak armed QB like Chad.

I can't wait to see everyone disappear after a few more weeks.

Feel free to bump this post!

If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
According to Antsports, Pennington was being taken in the 15th round, as QB#29, behind Kitna, Simms, Rivers, Carr, B.Johnson, Volek and Leinart, among other luminaries. You don't have to be a "Pennington lover" to see value there.
 
CalBear said:
pizzatyme said:
You Pennington lovers are grossly mistaken. I was at the game, please review the coverages in place by the Titans. They played off of the WRs most of the day. 10-12 yard cushion is just too much against a weak armed QB like Chad.

I can't wait to see everyone disappear after a few more weeks.

Feel free to bump this post!

If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
According to Antsports, Pennington was being taken in the 15th round, as QB#29, behind Kitna, Simms, Rivers, Carr, B.Johnson, Volek and Leinart, among other luminaries. You don't have to be a "Pennington lover" to see value there.
Click to expand...
I still think Rivers, Kitna, Carr and B. Johnson will outperform Pennington this season. But he should have been taken before Leinart.
 
CalBear said:
pizzatyme said:
You Pennington lovers are grossly mistaken. I was at the game, please review the coverages in place by the Titans. They played off of the WRs most of the day. 10-12 yard cushion is just too much against a weak armed QB like Chad.

I can't wait to see everyone disappear after a few more weeks.

Feel free to bump this post!

If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
According to Antsports, Pennington was being taken in the 15th round, as QB#29, behind Kitna, Simms, Rivers, Carr, B.Johnson, Volek and Leinart, among other luminaries. You don't have to be a "Pennington lover" to see value there.
Click to expand...
I would put him behind all of the QBs you mentioned besides Volek and Leinert(currently backups)

Value, yes, lofty goals or top 20, NO!

 
pizzatyme said:
You Pennington lovers are grossly mistaken. I was at the game, please review the coverages in place by the Titans. They played off of the WRs most of the day. 10-12 yard cushion is just too much against a weak armed QB like Chad.I can't wait to see everyone disappear after a few more weeks. Feel free to bump this post!If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
Good point. I'll keep my mouth shut for the next 16 weeks, and would advise most everyone else to do the same. :mellow: Colin
 
If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
I'm sure you enjoyed all the multi-angle replays and ability to rewind at will and play in slo-mo via Tivo. Oh wait, you cant do that at the game? Fat guy stood up to go to the potty during the middle of a critical play? Get real. Being at the game provides a different perspective, not a more valid one. You think Peyton Manning spends hours on end watching tape for no apparent reason?
 
Colin Dowling said:
pizzatyme said:
You Pennington lovers are grossly mistaken. I was at the game, please review the coverages in place by the Titans. They played off of the WRs most of the day. 10-12 yard cushion is just too much against a weak armed QB like Chad.I can't wait to see everyone disappear after a few more weeks. Feel free to bump this post!If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
Good point. I'll keep my mouth shut for the next 16 weeks, and would advise most everyone else to do the same. :mellow: Colin
Click to expand...
Funny! My point is those coming on here talking like Pennington is the second coming of ______ are badly mistaken. Many read a box score and make these silly arguments. If a guy has a good game, look at all possible reason why, not just that he is healthy and better than he was prior to any injury.The Titans D was atrocious, period. Pennington took advantage of what the defense gave him, kudos. But to think he will do this consistently against teams other than the Titans is a mistake.These are the same type of people coming in here and saying the Chargers are doomed since Rivers isn't "trusted" to pass more than 12 times.
 
mbuehner said:
If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
I'm sure you enjoyed all the multi-angle replays and ability to rewind at will and play in slo-mo via Tivo. Oh wait, you cant do that at the game? Fat guy stood up to go to the potty during the middle of a critical play? Get real. Being at the game provides a different perspective, not a more valid one. You think Peyton Manning spends hours on end watching tape for no apparent reason?
Click to expand...
Seriously...so I guess Jaws and company at ESPN are just wasting their time and have no idea what they are talking about because they could not possibly be at all those games live. Oh, and coaches, are wasting their time watching tape too. They need to not be coaching at their games and watching their next week's opponents games so they can prepare for next week. :lmao: Besides, if the coverage was so soft how did Pennington get the ball downfield as often as he did? This was not the dreaded dink and dunk that we had seen from NY the past two years, which was absolutely terrible approach to play calling (playing in a 10 yard box). They spread the ball around the field and went verticle. Penny seemed to make all the throws...it was a 2002 flashback game. Will it continue? TBD.

 
mbuehner said:
If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
I'm sure you enjoyed all the multi-angle replays and ability to rewind at will and play in slo-mo via Tivo. Oh wait, you cant do that at the game? Fat guy stood up to go to the potty during the middle of a critical play? Get real. Being at the game provides a different perspective, not a more valid one. You think Peyton Manning spends hours on end watching tape for no apparent reason?
Click to expand...
And I'm sure the posters plugging CP as back and better than ever were doing just that prior to posting, rewind in super-slo-mo, looking at a 10+ yard cushion the DBs were giving the WRs.Do you really think Peyton Manning is watching the replay of the NBC broadcast in the filmroom?

 
TME said:
mbuehner said:
If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
I'm sure you enjoyed all the multi-angle replays and ability to rewind at will and play in slo-mo via Tivo. Oh wait, you cant do that at the game? Fat guy stood up to go to the potty during the middle of a critical play? Get real. Being at the game provides a different perspective, not a more valid one. You think Peyton Manning spends hours on end watching tape for no apparent reason?
Click to expand...
Seriously...so I guess Jaws and company at ESPN are just wasting their time and have no idea what they are talking about because they could not possibly be at all those games live. Oh, and coaches, are wasting their time watching tape too. They need to not be coaching at their games and watching their next week's opponents games so they can prepare for next week. :lmao: Besides, if the coverage was so soft how did Pennington get the ball downfield as often as he did? This was not the dreaded dink and dunk that we had seen from NY the past two years, which was absolutely terrible approach to play calling (playing in a 10 yard box). They spread the ball around the field and went verticle. Penny seemed to make all the throws...it was a 2002 flashback game. Will it continue? TBD.
Click to expand...
Have you ever seen the video footage that Jaws uses to break down a game? Tell me once where any of the networks have given a full-field, overhead view of the game?It is different footage people!

 
pizzatyme said:
Value, yes, lofty goals or top 20, NO!
Click to expand...
Top 20 would require something like 2600 yards and 17 combined TDs. He already has 300 yards and 2 TDs, which means that if he plays all year, he could average 150 yards and 1 TD per game and finish in the top 20.In all the games Pennington has played, including partial games, he has averaged 194 yards and 1.34 TDs. That's money in the bank if he stays healthy. The question is where he can make top-10.
 
pizzatyme said:
And I'm sure the posters plugging CP as back and better than ever were doing just that prior to posting, rewind in super-slo-mo, looking at a 10+ yard cushion the DBs were giving the WRs.
Click to expand...
A ten yard cushion isn't that much in the NFL these days. Oakland was given the same cushion last night.Also, with a 10 yard cushion, it's designed to PREVENT LONG PASSES. However, Pennington's bombs to Coles were perfect, even WITH the cushion that you speak of.206 of Chad Pennington's yards on Sunday came from passes of 12 yards or longer.With a ten yard cushion, those should be HARDER, not easier, to make.
 
pizzatyme said:
And I'm sure the posters plugging CP as back and better than ever were doing just that prior to posting, rewind in super-slo-mo, looking at a 10+ yard cushion the DBs were giving the WRs.
Click to expand...
Again, 2/3 of Pennington's yards were from long pass plays, the plays that a cushion like that is designed to PREVENT.That's where your argument doesn't hold at all.Yes, you were at the game. Good for you. That doesn't make your interpretation of what happened any better than ours, because you're clearly blinded by something.
 
Keys Myaths said:
pizzatyme said:
And I'm sure the posters plugging CP as back and better than ever were doing just that prior to posting, rewind in super-slo-mo, looking at a 10+ yard cushion the DBs were giving the WRs.
Click to expand...
A ten yard cushion isn't that much in the NFL these days. Oakland was given the same cushion last night.Also, with a 10 yard cushion, it's designed to PREVENT LONG PASSES. However, Pennington's bombs to Coles were perfect, even WITH the cushion that you speak of.206 of Chad Pennington's yards on Sunday came from passes of 12 yards or longer.With a ten yard cushion, those should be HARDER, not easier, to make.
Click to expand...
so, you're sure they were 12 yards or more through the air? Or are you counting an 8 yard reception with YAC?I just want to be sure I am clear on your argument. Also, how many reception accounted for those 206 yards?
 
CalBear said:
pizzatyme said:
Value, yes, lofty goals or top 20, NO!
Click to expand...
Top 20 would require something like 2600 yards and 17 combined TDs. He already has 300 yards and 2 TDs, which means that if he plays all year, he could average 150 yards and 1 TD per game and finish in the top 20.In all the games Pennington has played, including partial games, he has averaged 194 yards and 1.34 TDs. That's money in the bank if he stays healthy. The question is where he can make top-10.
Click to expand...
Top 10! I am really bumping this post, maybe as soon as next week.
 
OK, I just watched the replay, complete with rewinds and slo mo.

Not that YAC should be a big consideration is a WC styled offense, byt there wasn't much YAC that padded Pennington's numbers. I counted two plays (completions) of over 40 yards in the air, and three more that went over 35 yards. The one looong pass to Coles went over 55 yards in the air, and had plenty of zip on it.

More than the stats, as a rabid Jets fan, I can say his arm is stronger than it was in 2002. He's still a touch passer, always will be, but he was incredibly ACCURATE, and throws a very catchable ball. He had more zip on his short outs than I've ever seen before, and also went medium-deep over the middle.... something he hasn't done in years. He lived up to his nickname (the old one, not noodle arm) as Pin-point Pennington.

You need t look at the game more closely. There were times he had to drill it in there.... and he did. Once Blaylock starts riding the pine, the running game will improve, along with the O line youngsters (Kendall went out in the first Q).

It still amazes me how many people have this anti-Jet bias.... sorta funny, really. First pick in the draft! :no: :lmao:

 
I'm taking my chances with him. Is his arm as strong as Daryle Lamonica's was? Nope. He'll never be the Mad Bomber of the East. But he has a head for the game and makes good decisions, and looks like he's able to put the ball into the receivers' hands where they're looking for it. I'll take that from my QB3.

 
pizzatyme said:
If you weren't at the game then how can you make an analysis of the game? The TV coverage doesn't give a full picture of the game. And, neither does the stat line.
Click to expand...
Hands down the most uninformed and short sighted comment I have seen on this board - and that says alot!
 
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