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RB Match ups to exploit/avoid week 2 (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Let’s assume you actually have some options at RB this week. Let’s take a peek at the games and breakdown the match ups.

Buffalo at Miami

Willis McGahee: Miami gave up 143 yards on the ground last week and a decent 3.8 ypc. Pittsburgh’s OL is far better than Buffalo. McGahee posted about 90 yds on the ground last week. I look for Miami to come out and really try and pounce on the Bills. McGahee might be looking at around 70-80 on the ground but unlike last week should find the end zone once this week. Not a horrible match up for him.

Ronnie Brown: Brown owners thought last week was OK with 2 rushing TDs…wait till they see what the boy does this week to a Bills team that allowed 183/4.5 ypc on the ground last week against the Patrioits which had virtually no WR threats. With Chambers occupying the secondary I look for brown to get loose this week at home. 20-24 carries, at least 100+ rushing yds and TD.

Carolina at Minnesota

Chester Taylor: Made for a good week for his owners with the TD…but struggled unnign with 31 carries and not reaching the century mark. Carolina allowed 250+ yds on the ground last week. 5.4 ypc and 3 runs of 20+ yds…yikes! Dan morgan went down in that game but he isn’t the whole defense. I look for Carolina to bite back this week as they were humiliated at home against the Falcons last week. Tayloe owners will expect for him to duplicate Dunn’s numbers form last week…I don’t see it.

DeShaun Foster: Disappointing. No other way to describe it last week. With Steve Smith out this offense changes drastically. Foster owners better hope Smith can make a go of it this week. Vikes gave up 103, a rushing TD, and 4.1 on the ground last week. Hard to gauge how good or bad they are…I would say they are middle of the road.

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Reuben Droughns: It wasn’t supposed to get much easier than a home opener vs the Saints…but Droughns was held in check. Under 30 yds rushing. He actually has a good match up this week. The Bengals kept LJ in check last week but gave up 4.5 ypc. Look for Droughns to get back on track this week. Something in the vicinity of 75-100 yds and maybe a TD as well.

Rudi Johnson: Stud…no need to worry about match up with him right now. Cleveland allowed 150 yards but 3.8 ypc. RJ will be fine.

Detroit at Chicago

Kevin Jones: Chicago did give up 4.5 ypc last week. What was encouraging about KJ last week were his 8 targets in the Mike Martz pass attack. Jones will have his work cut out on the ground but he might catch enough balls to make due as a decent RB2 again this week. Smart owners will trade for him before he actually has a big game and the price shoots up.

Thomas Jones: Still the starter. Nothing special last week. Detroit was though and held Seattle to just 3.5 ypc…will be interesting to see how Chicago does against a semi decent defense this week. I look for Jones to have a decent day but this is not a slam dunk match up by any stretch.

Houston at Indy

Wali Lundy: Till Houston can get their running game together I would steer clear. The Giants are a good run blocking team so don’t be lured into thinking Houston will be able to do the same to Indy.

Dominic Rhodes/Joseph Addai: Rhodes is starting for the moment. He and Addai will have good days for the Colts as they will be ahead and have the luxury of running the ball more. Houston gave up 130 yds and 4.3 ypc to an Eagles team that is not a power running team…Rhodes should have the better of it.

New Orleans at Green Bay

Reggie Bush: Just start him…especially in the flex. 10 targets in the passing game and you aint seen nuthin yet!

Deuce McAllister: I have owners in several leagues that are starting him as a RB2…He will not be getting much other than his rushing yds. If he gets 15 carries a week on average..that will amount to roughly 60-80 yds…I think he is a distant 2nd on this team.

Ahman Green: Start him if you must. I want to evaluate him 1 more week. NO gave up only 85 yds last week but almost 4 ypc..so maybe Cleveland just didn’t try hard enough. Saints are on the road again this week, I see them as a big letdown this week and probably will resemble the Saints we are more accustomed to. Green has a chance to supplicate his numbers of a week ago.

NY Giants at Philly

Tiki Barber: Not an easy match up but there is no question you will play him.

Brian Westbrok: Don’t look for him to have as big a day rushing the ball…his yards are gonna come thru the air. NY held Indy to 2.4 ypc last week…WOW!

Oakland at Baltimore

Lamont Jordan: I said Jordan owners would be singing the blues early in the season. That will continue this week. I would seriously consider benching him if you have some other options.

Jamal Lewis: As bad as Oakland was in giving up 194 yds on the ground it was only at a clip of 4 ypc. That isn’t horrible. Lewis owners need not expect LT type numbers this week.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

“Cadillac”: Looked more like a Plymouth last week…bad joke I know. The Falcons numbers are deceiving. 61 yds but over 4 ypc last week. I look for the Bucs to actually have some success running the football this week. Cadillac will get lose and also find pay dirt this week…mark it down.

Warrick Dunn: OK, he looked great last week. But the Bucs only allowed 3.0 ypc last week in a 27-0 BLOWOUT!!! Dunn will have a very mediocre day against his old team. He has a couple of nice match ups after this week…look for a quiet day from Dunn.

Arizona at Seattle

Edge: AZ still sucks running the football. The Niners…THE FLIPPIN SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS held them to 2.9 ypc last week. Edge owners should shop him to death this week…as his stats were actually pretty good. There are a bunch of RBs you could likely acquire for him right now. He will have rough sledding in Seattle this weekend. I talked about the trio of LBs that Seattle has and they looked terrific on Sunday. I expect them to be very stingy on rush defense most of the season.

Shaun Alexander: Easily had one of the worst games of the season last week. He’ll be fine and he gets back on track with the Cardinals this week. Arizona gave up a whopping 6 ypc last week…6! Shaun will score a ton on Sunday.

St.Louis at San Francisco

Steven Jackson: The Niners did a good job of stopping the run last week. Andy McCollum was lost for the season and will not be replaced easily. I have not liked what I have seen form St Louis so far…just the fact that SJax is getting a full load is not reason enough to be happy. The pass attack looks terrible right now and if that continues then defenses will wise up. Gone are the 3 and 4WR sets so SJax will see more and more 7 and even yes 8 man fronts. He will be fine this week in SF but I see trouble brewing on the horizon.

Frank Gore: Don’t trip over yourself inserting him into the starting line up this week. Rams gave up almost 6.5 ypc last week…how the heck did they beat Denver? Larry Allen is lost for about a month but the Niners actually have a decent OL as we have talked about and I see them running well again on Sunday. They might actually win this week. Gore should rack up 100+ on the ground and another score this week. We called for 100 yds and a score last week for Gore…boy were we wrong…he almost doubled the anticipated output.

Kansas City at Denver

Larry Johnson: FF owners had the worst scenario on Sunday…Trent Green is gone for at least the next couple of games. LJ will get a full workload and Denver was gashed for 4.5 ypc on Sunday. I temper my enthusiasm for LJ with Damon Huard under center right now.

Tatum Bell: He has been named the starter but Shanny insists Mike Bell will get worked into the line up and whoever has the hot hand will see the most carries. Chefs held the Bengals to 3.4 ypc on Sunday. Maybe Herm can rally the troops but Denver can run on anyone they want to. Either Bell might be a decent play till we see which one can maintain the job. Tatum did have over 100 yds last week.

New England at NY Jets

Corey Dillon: Everyone seemed enamored with Maroney but they seem to have glossed over the fact that Dillon had a very nice game on Sunday. He ran well and as long as he is healthy this is a workload that will be pretty evenly split. This is not so great for FF owners but I think Dillon is the safer start right now as he will get most of the goal line work for the time being.

Laurence Maroney: Could be starting at some point down the road. For right now FF owners should simply enjoy his preogression. At some point soon he may be a decent spot start.

Derrick Blaylock: The Jets did not run the ball well. Blaylock had around 18 carries for less than 40 yards rushing…not good. At some point Barlow will be taking over the starting duties.

Kevan Barlow: Did not have a spectacular day stats wise but he scored a TD and if the Jets can muster a passing game…something they missed last season…then you might see some holes open up for the RBs. Their OL has a couple of rookies…good rookies though…look for them to get better and better every week. Ferguson and Mangold will make a major difference in their OL as the season progresses. Barlow to me is the safer start right now if you are in a pinch.

Tennessee at San Diego

Travis Henry: Fact is he is getting the goal line carries so that makes him a better play to me. However I wouldn’t start him against San Diego right now. The Chargers have picked right up where they left off last season. They stifled the Raiders to less than 50 yds rushing last week. Lamont Jordan looked helpless on the field. Let the Titans ride your bench this week if you can help it. Travis Henry may be available on your WW…if that is the case you should grab him.

LaDainian Tomlinson: May have a slightly tougher go of it this week. He is fun to watch run the football. Looks like he was the best of the early 3 drafted in leagues this season. Will it keep up?

Washington at Dallas

Clinton Portis: Check the injury report but he had 39 yds and a TD last week…one would think he will get a bigger load this week as Washingotn is desperate for a win. SO id Dallas. One of these preseason playoff pimped teams is going to go 0-2. Ouch! If Portis is even probable I would probably play him this week. I don’t expect him or Julius Jones for that matter to have big days rushing the football on these defenses.

Julius Jones: See Portis.

Pittsburgh at Jax

FWP: Start him every week. He is the focal point of the offense right now. It won’t be easy to run on Jax but the Pittsburgh OL is really good and will open plenty of holes for FWP. Remember the Jags suffered a major blow on their OL with Hayward going down for the season.

Fred Taylor: Only way he puts up good stats this week is if he can find pay dirt. Otherwise I expect him to have a low output this week.

Time for you all to chime in. Last week's thread was awesome and I wanted to thank all that participated, we turned that into over 3 pages.

If you have a question about your line up, you should use the ACF, there are quality FBGs that will help you there. However if you can provide some analysis, or state why you are leaning one way or the other...then please post away and we'll try and help. Just try to lay off the "pick 2" form these 4...at least give us an idea or something to work with.

Cheers!

:banned:

 
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Eagles fan here...I will say that no matter how good the Eagles play against the Giants, Tiki Barber always seems to break at least 1 good long run.

Also MOP, you should link your previous weeks exploits in the post so we can see how you did in your predictions.

MOPs Week 1 RB Matchup Thread

 
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Eagles fan here...I will say that no matter how good the Eagles play against the Giants, Tiki Barber always seems to break at least 1 good long run. Also MOP, you should link your previous weeks exploits in the post so we can see how you did in your predictions.
Hey SB, I was thinking about the link but people can search it. I honestly do not write the thread to try and be a prognosticator of stats so muchas to get some good talk going about match ups. Some of the board has figured out why I actually put these together. And I am really glad folks enjoy the analysis...but I write this stuff as much for myself as for anyone else. If I can get 50 posters to put up their insight on top of what I am thinking...who wouldn't enjoy that? I miss a lot of stuff and when I visit my threads over the weekend before I submit my own line ups it really helps. Also this thread appears as a weekly article on another site that I will not name. :D
 
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I don't know if I'd be so pessimistic on the Rams passing game... they have a cake schedule through the air, but the redzone worries could still be a problem as the run defenses they face are not quite so easy.

 
Do you really see Frank Gore having a healthy day against St. Louis?

St. Louis seems to have improved in the offseason and Denver has one of the top 3 running OLs in the game. San Francisco lost Larry Allen for this week, and they were playing Arizona last week. If St. Louis gets a good start against the Niners (10+ lead) I see lots of passing. (Of course, Gore is involved in the passing game as well.)

 
Good stuff. Appreciate the effort. :thumbup:
Ditto! Very good read. :thumbup: I too think that the Panthers run defense will be able to stop Chester Taylor. Their weak spot has always been the counter tre or misdirection run, especially by smaller, quicker RB's. I think they'll stop Taylor for the most part - and I'm a Taylor owner.
 
Nice read as usual MoP :thumbup:

Thanks!!

I'm a little undecided between Warrick Dunn and Dominic Rhodes as my RB2 for this week. I'm currently leaning heavily to Dunn, but I have a tendency to make the wrong call in these situations (last week I went with Rhodes because I thought the Panther run-defense was strong and I figured Rhodes' value would decrease later in the season, so I thought, "If I don't start him now, when will I?")

I agree that Dunn's YPC will go down this week, but I think he gets a TD.

Rhodes should have a much better YPC this week than last, but will probably have about half the carries of Dunn this week, so their yardage totals may be similar (although Dunn should be a little higher if he gets any passes thrown his way)...

I think Rhodes getting a TD is 50-50 this week. I think the Colts offense is probably good for 1 rushing TD by a RB this week -- just depends on who is in the backfield when they get down there -- Rhodes or Addai...

Soo... I'm leaning Dunn, but am pretty sure that whichever way I end up going is going to turn out to be the wrong way :wall:

ETA: 0.5 PPR for RBs

 
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MOP, I love these things.

But am I so wrong for sticking with McGahee and Foster over Chester? I just get that feeling if I start Chester due to all the touches he's getting, I'll end up regretting it.

Do we know if Steve Smith is playing this week?

 
Good stuff, thanks for the contribution!!!

A couple of differences in opinion :D

Caddy - TBs offense is looking out of whack and it won't get any easier against Atlanta's D!!!!

Droughns - Watched the Browns-NO game on the NFL network last night, the Browns O line looks horrid, I'm thinking it's going to be a long long season for Droughns.

 
Nice read as usual MoP :thumbup: Thanks!!I'm a little undecided between Warrick Dunn and Dominic Rhodes as my RB2 for this week. I'm currently leaning heavily to Dunn, but I have a tendency to make the wrong call in these situations (last week I went with Rhodes because I thought the Panther run-defense was strong and I figured Rhodes' value would decrease later in the season, so I thought, "If I don't start him now, when will I?")I agree that Dunn's YPC will go down this week, but I think he gets a TD.Rhodes should have a much better YPC this week than last, but will probably have about half the carries of Dunn this week, so their yardage totals may be similar (although Dunn should be a little higher if he gets any passes thrown his way)...I think Rhodes getting a TD is 50-50 this week. I think the Colts offense is probably good for 1 rushing TD by a RB this week -- just depends on who is in the backfield when they get down there -- Rhodes or Addai...Soo... I'm leaning Dunn, but am pretty sure that whichever way I end up going is going to turn out to be the wrong way :wall:ETA: 0.5 PPR for RBs
How can you even think about sitting Dunn for Rhodes???
 
I think your analysis is excellent. Almost sounds like you're a professional writing for a sports web-site (maybe that is your day job?) Keep up the good work, its well appreciated on this board!

 
Great stuff....

I have to start 2 RB's between Gore, Westy, and Parker. I like Gore against the 49ers, but my league rewards big for receiving yards. Gore will have a nice day, but I can't bench Westbrook and Parker. I guess this is a nice problem to have.

 
Do you really see Frank Gore having a healthy day against St. Louis? St. Louis seems to have improved in the offseason and Denver has one of the top 3 running OLs in the game. San Francisco lost Larry Allen for this week, and they were playing Arizona last week. If St. Louis gets a good start against the Niners (10+ lead) I see lots of passing. (Of course, Gore is involved in the passing game as well.)
Niners offense as a whole has progressed a lot this season. They have some depth on their OL...Allen is a big piece missing but if you watched Gore last week he was dragging...dragging people with him. Yes i think SF will find room to run this week.
 
Nice read as usual MoP :thumbup: Thanks!!I'm a little undecided between Warrick Dunn and Dominic Rhodes as my RB2 for this week. I'm currently leaning heavily to Dunn, but I have a tendency to make the wrong call in these situations (last week I went with Rhodes because I thought the Panther run-defense was strong and I figured Rhodes' value would decrease later in the season, so I thought, "If I don't start him now, when will I?")I agree that Dunn's YPC will go down this week, but I think he gets a TD.Rhodes should have a much better YPC this week than last, but will probably have about half the carries of Dunn this week, so their yardage totals may be similar (although Dunn should be a little higher if he gets any passes thrown his way)...I think Rhodes getting a TD is 50-50 this week. I think the Colts offense is probably good for 1 rushing TD by a RB this week -- just depends on who is in the backfield when they get down there -- Rhodes or Addai...Soo... I'm leaning Dunn, but am pretty sure that whichever way I end up going is going to turn out to be the wrong way :wall:ETA: 0.5 PPR for RBs
I like Rhodes against Houston this week.
 
Only debate I would take on is McCallister. Bush is not eh goalline guy in NO... its McCalister.

I am not saying downgrade or upgrade either, I am just stating that McCalister is a solid RB2 unless Bush gets the calls on the goalline.

 
Good posting MoP. I believe a few more RBs could be added though, such as MB3, Jacobs and maybe Norwood.
Cool ST...what do you think they are worth right now? I don't believe you can start any of them do you? MB3 didn't do much at all last week. Norwood got 10 carries but Dunn had almost 30. And Jacobs does look like he will see significant amounts of time during the games.
 
Nice work here

But no chance will teams start putting 8 in the box against the Rams with Holt and Bruce on the outside. No way that happens

 
MOP, I love these things.But am I so wrong for sticking with McGahee and Foster over Chester? I just get that feeling if I start Chester due to all the touches he's getting, I'll end up regretting it. Do we know if Steve Smith is playing this week?
McGahee will do OK this week. Foster...hard to tell. You hope he answers the call this week. I don't like Taylor and when you take away his rushing TD...very mediocre numbers. The Vikes offense in general is nothing to get real excited about.
 
So there are, like, three RBs worth starting this week?
:lmao: That seems to be the concensus, typically. This a pretty well-written analysis though, I enjoy these. For this week I am very curious about what Deuce does. The contention here is that Deuce will hover around 60-80 yards, which may be true, but everyone has to agree that he's the goalline back. In leagues without ppr doesn't that make him, possibly, the better start? I have both, I can't stop myself from starting Bush, but I have an extremely strong gut feeling that Deuce punches one in this week to go along with said yardage. I'm ALMOST tempted to start Bush and Deuce, (over JJ and...well, nobody else notable), even though it feel like lunacy to start TWO New Orleans players playing the SAME position.I wish I had a normal running back I start without worry. But again, there are only three worthy startable RB's this week.
 
Great stuff....I have to start 2 RB's between Gore, Westy, and Parker. I like Gore against the 49ers, but my league rewards big for receiving yards. Gore will have a nice day, but I can't bench Westbrook and Parker. I guess this is a nice problem to have.
I wouldn't begin to sit and tell you to bench Westy or Parker but I have a feeling Gore will outpace at least 1 of those 2.
 
Nice work hereBut no chance will teams start putting 8 in the box against the Rams with Holt and Bruce on the outside. No way that happens
Well Frank Gore wasn't supposed to post 2 TDs and 150+ last week...but he did. I'm telling you, I watched that whole game, and I do not like what I saw form that offense. They were in Denver territory no less than 7 or 8 times...deep too...and couldn't score 1 flippin TD. You watch...if you can't burn teams with the pass it's trouble.Holt and Bruce are good WRs but if you never throw deep...and you never run 3 and 4WR sets...where is the fear of letting your top CBs go 1 on 1 with them? Has Holt been burniong double coverage all these years...or has he had a lot of 1 on 1 when defenses play nickel and dime vs 4 WR sets? Think about it. Not knocking Holt...I have him in almost every league I am in...but Sunday and the preseason so far...not that good.
 
I these posts MOP.

I recomend improving it by making a sumary list of who is a good/average/bad start at the end of the post. I find some of the commentary ambiguos so clarification on that would help.

Again great topic for discussion.

 
I think Maroney is a spot start guy now, especially in larger leagues. He got in the game last week right away and ripped off some huge runs. Seemed like a RBBC week 1, which I was very surprised about since the talk was Maroney was dinged and might not even play, or that BB would gradually work the kid in. He also got 1 more carry than Dillon, and looked much quicker.

 
I these posts MOP.I recomend improving it by making a sumary list of who is a good/average/bad start at the end of the post. I find some of the commentary ambiguos so clarification on that would help.Again great topic for discussion.
Agreed. I was thinking of doing that too. It's always a work in progress.
 
Good posting MoP. I believe a few more RBs could be added though, such as MB3, Jacobs and maybe Norwood.
Cool ST...what do you think they are worth right now? I don't believe you can start any of them do you? MB3 didn't do much at all last week. Norwood got 10 carries but Dunn had almost 30. And Jacobs does look like he will see significant amounts of time during the games.
Well, the true worth of the three examples I gave is still in question somewhat, which is one reason I think they are worth discussing more. These 3 all have some obvious potential and will definitely be seeing some action. I don't think there's a chance of Dunn or Tiki losing their starting job barring injury, but of those 3 I'd say Julius is the one with the slight chance of possibly able to lose the position due to ineffectiveness or lack of durability. Make or break time for JJ. That said I'd still rather hand the rock to Jacobs or Norwood than MB3 in this order. So worth, I dunno yet, but there's my pecking order for these 3 FWIW. NYG has their thunder and lightning now, and ATL has mirrored that scenario. Sorry if I'm not adding anything not already obvious. Point is I think these are players to watch closely.
 
So there are, like, three RBs worth starting this week?
:lmao: That seems to be the concensus, typically. This a pretty well-written analysis though, I enjoy these. For this week I am very curious about what Deuce does. The contention here is that Deuce will hover around 60-80 yards, which may be true, but everyone has to agree that he's the goalline back. In leagues without ppr doesn't that make him, possibly, the better start? I have both, I can't stop myself from starting Bush, but I have an extremely strong gut feeling that Deuce punches one in this week to go along with said yardage. I'm ALMOST tempted to start Bush and Deuce, (over JJ and...well, nobody else notable), even though it feel like lunacy to start TWO New Orleans players playing the SAME position.I wish I had a normal running back I start without worry. But again, there are only three worthy startable RB's this week.
:goodposting: Another thing I noticed while watching the NO-Browns game was that Bush opened up the field quite a bit for McAllister, the Brows defense looked very confused at times. If McAllister continues to get 20+ carries per game he could be a viable #2 RB.
 
This post is just another reason I love coming here. Nice job MOP, although you made my weekly "who do I start at RB" question a little tougher.

Orginally I was planning on starting C.Taylor over Dillon. I thought, Talyor got the ball a ton and has no competition and Dillon has the rook looking over his shoulder and taking 50% of his carries. I'm still leaning towards Talyor, only becuase I would be really pissed if I started Dillon and Maroney takes over the game giving Dillon 10 carries.

 
stephen jackson will be just fine, im sure linehan will open the passing game a tad, they have talented players at wr and qb and their offense was great everywhere except the red zone, i expect them to punch some of those RZ opportunities in this week against the niners.

 
Let’s assume you actually have some options at RB this week. Let’s take a peek at the games and breakdown the match ups.

Dominic Rhodes/Joseph Addai: Rhodes is starting for the moment. He and Addai will have good days for the Colts as they will be ahead and have the luxury of running the ball more. Houston gave up 130 yds and 4.3 ypc to an Eagles team that is not a power running team…Rhodes should have the better of it.

I agree with everyone that this is some good analysis and opens the door for some nice discussion. My thought/question on the Indy situation - I would expect Indy to jump out quickly on the Texans (not a bold prediction there). If they have a comfortable lead at the half, wouldn't it make sense for Dungy to give Addai a heavy workload in the 2nd half to further evaluate his talent? I think that makes him a decent RB3 option this week, but that could just be me justifying a possible start? Thanks for the nice work.
 
I know with just one week under our belts, analysis is difficult, but I was hoping to see more on the Dallas situation than "see Clinton Portis". :)

Not carping, but that game is pivotal in my RB choices this week. Any further thoughts? I don't think that MB3 has yet turned out to be any kind of threat to JJ and the dreaded RBBC failed to appear for DAL against JAX, but who has some futher insight into Washington's run or overall defense?

 
Good Work MOP - FWIW starting Rudi and Gore ( over westy) in one league and Rudi and Gore in a second league ( over deshaun)

GLTA

 
Great post MOP. I have 2 leagues where I have trouble deciding still

League 1: Start 2 RBs (no PPR), I have Gore vs STL; Shaun vs Arizona; Jamal vs Oak (I am leaning towards benching Jamal since I think the other 2 will definitely get the yardage, if not the TDs and we gte bonus points for >100 yd games)

League 2: Start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 flex (can be TE too) and this is a PPR league and I have Bush, McGahee and Dunn as my Rbs. Definitely starting Bush and McGahee. Thinking of benching Dunn despite his strong performance week 1 and instead starting 2 TEs (Winslow and Tony Gonzalez). Being a PPR league, Winslow and Tony are a lock for at least 5 catches each and their downside is 10 points while upside can be up to 20 or more (1 pt every 10 yards)

Thoughts on either one????

 

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