I intended to comment on this at the time, but got busy and forgot. However, this past weekend's games present a good opportunity to revisit this.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Sammy Watkins was pretty universally regarded as an ELITE level prospect, and while I dislike the term "can't miss" (see Richardson, Trent), Watkins was about as highly regarded a prospect as we have had in several years. What could possibly have happened over the course of a training camp, preaseason, and 1 NFL game that had several in here dropping him down to 3rd in his own class?? I am not pointing out Concept Coop only and have no idea how he viewed Watkins pre-draft, but am commenting on the fact that several people seemed immediately ready to discount Watkins. I get it if someone viewed Benjamin or Cooks ahead of him before/immeditely after the draft, but if you didn't and changed your mind after what is essentially meaningless training camp/preseason action and the first real NFL games in these players careers, why?
If anything, this screams to me that Watkins is holding a neon flashing sign that says "buy me" in fantasy leagues. His performance this week likely killed whatever very small window may have been opened, but I can't fathom how he went from elite level prospect to being viewed behind Benjamin and Cooks before things even really began. If I owned Benjamin or Cooks in any leagues, I would be sprinting to my trade window to offer either up for Watkins, hoping the Watkins owner was also waffling on him. Is this Trent Richardson fatigue and people being overly weery of the very highly regarded talent falling flat on his face? Were people that spooked with a disappointing training camp/preseason that included injuries affecting his play and E.J. Manuel being E.J. Manuel? I suppose I can't figure it out and was caught off guard how quickly several in here seemed to discount him. This doesn't even touch on Mike Evans, who appears to simmarly being shuffled down the pecking order by some.
I was never sold on Sammy being a traditional 1.01 value as a prospect. I did feel he was the top player in this draft, but, largely due to draft position and the NFL investment. Please feel free to search for posts of mine containing his name. That really hasn't changed much for me. Granted, I haven't seen the game yet.
Also, I suggested that Benjamin was going to catch up to Evans' dyansty value during the season, prior to week 1. Post is in the Off-Season trade thread. Week 1 was one of a few data points that make me very high on Benjamin's end of season dynasty value. But not the only one, by any means.
My stance is that, should Benjamin meet my projections for him--70/1,000/8--he'll be a sexier version of K. Allen, as a dynasty asset, who was pretty universally valued higher than Sammy this off-season.
The call does depend on Sammy's value being close to what it was coming into the season. For that to happen, he needed to have a solid season that showed the talent, but didn't ponit to consistent top 15-20 numbers going into season 2, based largely due to situation. Obviously, if his situation allows more than that, I could come to regret any roster moves I make based on the call. But they're on pace for
256 completions, 3,000 yards and 16 TDs. If that holds, I feel confident that week 2 is an outlier for Sammy this season.
Lastly, I have no issues with Benjamin's week 2 performance. He got a lot of targets and that will continue. The catch rate will not, however--it will get much better. I haven't changed my projections for him at all, based on yesterday afternoon, and view it only as another buy window. He got 8 targets in both games, which puts him on pace for 128--the number I threw out last week.
As for Cooks--he was 2nd on the team in targets and got a couple looks on the ground for 30 yards. He's going to be fine and should be targeted heavily.