Props to FBGs (1 Viewer)

AcerFC · Nov 9, 2006

Let me first start by saying that whenever you do an experiment like this there are way too many variables to factor in but I still think it goes to show how strong of a statement this will be.

I am mired with a 2-7 record right now after I thought I had a pretty good draft (as I am sure everyone does). Real quick, I went R Brown, L Fitz, J Lewis, R Wayne, T Jones and Maroney in the first 6 rounds. Didnt take a QB until RD 9 when I thought I got a steal in Jake the Snake (we know how that turned out). Anyway my team was not very good and obviously I am 2-7 so I started thinking about things that I did wrong at the draft.

I decided that I wanted to see what would have happened had I just listened to what the Draft Dominator had told me. So I just spent an hour analyzing the mock draft that I just did.

***A couple of factors****

1. I stayed with the picks from my original draft as much as possible. All players selected, were selected at the same spots using draft dominator. (entire league, not just my picks)

2. When I could not do that because the draft dominator had advised me to pick a player (out of turn), I gave the team the player that I selected, or whoever the dominator spit out if they were better.

3. I could only do this for 10 rounds because we use IDPs and I did not factor that in when I just did my mock draft and I did not feel like doing it again, so I stopped at RD 10 when the first IDP was taken

4. I followed the dominator to a T, unless it was telling me to take a 4th WR when I had 1 RB, or a 3rd QB when I had no TE.

5. All players selected would still have been available in the real draft

6. Since I only had a sample of 10 rounds, I used my kicker and IDPs that I drafted since I waited until the final rounds to take them anyway.

7. I factored low points into bye situations by giving any player on bye 5 points as a FA acquisition. (as I said, low)

Here is what would have happened had I used the draft dominator (in order): Manning, S Smith, Wayne, Driver, T Jones, Maroney, Bulger, Lundy (looks big now), Witten and L Coles.

I would have been able to get each of these players at the positions they were available because no one had drafted them yet.

I went back and recalculated my stats to match the new team I would have had, had I listened to the dominator. (YES, I have way too much time on ny hands)

At this point in the season, I would definitelty have 6 wins with another 2 possible wins depending on who other guys might have had in there when I played them (I used thier guys in my new scenario). I would have scored high points once or twice and I would be in the top 4 in scoring 6 of the 9 weeks so far

So if I would have drafted according to the dominator, I would be 6-3 (or even 7-2) instead of 2-7 and out of the playoffs already.

As I said there are a lot of factors that go into this especially being able to determine guys position in the real draft, but as I said, all of these players would have still been available in the RD that the DD told me to take them.

This is my first year with FBGs and my first using the DD. Next year I may give it a little more credibility.

I would love to hear if anyone else has done something like this and I would also like to know if it would have worked out in your favor. If you are 8-1 or 7-2 then you may not have used it and done well anyway, but I am looking for the weaker teams to chime in here.

gregjcross · Nov 9, 2006

Good post. I think the only potential hole in it is:

a) Where did the draft dominator tell you to take Larry Fitzgerald and Jamal Lewis, those guys are hurting you because of the injury and inconsistency. Im sure there are a TON of teams they killed but it was hard not to like them in August.

b) Even if you had him, would you have known to play a guy like Lav. Coles in the first four weeks?

So my short thesis is: A lot of people have decent talent but get bad records because they have odd things happen to them or they play hot competition on week to week matchups. For instance, I started with kurt warner, ronnie brown, matt jones, colston and hines ward in my main league and I stuck with all but Warner, and, yes they were very dissapointing early on, and i wasnt playing Colston in weeks 1-4, but by riding them out and making a few adjustments, putting in Grossman for Warner, and playing Colston every week now, i can likely get back in the thick of it.

There is just no possible way (not Draftdominator or other) of predicting the type of season that someone like Hines Ward, Jamal Lewis, Colston or R.Briown are having, Brown's 150 at Chicago case in point, but production has a way of evening itself out.

Just my 2c

GC

AcerFC said:
Let me first start by saying that whenever you do an experiment like this there are way too many variables to factor in but I still think it goes to show how strong of a statement this will be.

I am mired with a 2-7 record right now after I thought I had a pretty good draft (as I am sure everyone does). Real quick, I went R Brown, L Fitz, J Lewis, R Wayne, T Jones and Maroney in the first 6 rounds. Didnt take a QB until RD 9 when I thought I got a steal in Jake the Snake (we know how that turned out). Anyway my team was not very good and obviously I am 2-7 so I started thinking about things that I did wrong at the draft.

I decided that I wanted to see what would have happened had I just listened to what the Draft Dominator had told me. So I just spent an hour analyzing the mock draft that I just did.

***A couple of factors****

1. I stayed with the picks from my original draft as much as possible. All players selected, were selected at the same spots using draft dominator. (entire league, not just my picks)

2. When I could not do that because the draft dominator had advised me to pick a player (out of turn), I gave the team the player that I selected, or whoever the dominator spit out if they were better.

3. I could only do this for 10 rounds because we use IDPs and I did not factor that in when I just did my mock draft and I did not feel like doing it again, so I stopped at RD 10 when the first IDP was taken

4. I followed the dominator to a T, unless it was telling me to take a 4th WR when I had 1 RB, or a 3rd QB when I had no TE.

5. All players selected would still have been available in the real draft

6. Since I only had a sample of 10 rounds, I used my kicker and IDPs that I drafted since I waited until the final rounds to take them anyway.

7. I factored low points into bye situations by giving any player on bye 5 points as a FA acquisition. (as I said, low)

Here is what would have happened had I used the draft dominator (in order): Manning, S Smith, Wayne, Driver, T Jones, Maroney, Bulger, Lundy (looks big now), Witten and L Coles.

I would have been able to get each of these players at the positions they were available because no one had drafted them yet.

I went back and recalculated my stats to match the new team I would have had, had I listened to the dominator. (YES, I have way too much time on ny hands)

At this point in the season, I would definitelty have 6 wins with another 2 possible wins depending on who other guys might have had in there when I played them (I used thier guys in my new scenario). I would have scored high points once or twice and I would be in the top 4 in scoring 6 of the 9 weeks so far

So if I would have drafted according to the dominator, I would be 6-3 (or even 7-2) instead of 2-7 and out of the playoffs already.

As I said there are a lot of factors that go into this especially being able to determine guys position in the real draft, but as I said, all of these players would have still been available in the RD that the DD told me to take them.

This is my first year with FBGs and my first using the DD. Next year I may give it a little more credibility.

I would love to hear if anyone else has done something like this and I would also like to know if it would have worked out in your favor. If you are 8-1 or 7-2 then you may not have used it and done well anyway, but I am looking for the weaker teams to chime in here.

AcerFC · Nov 9, 2006

gregjcross said:
Good post. I think the only potential hole in it is: a) Where did the draft dominator tell you to take Larry Fitzgerald and Jamal Lewis, those guys are hurting you because of the injury and inconsistency. Im sure there are a TON of teams they killed but it was hard not to like them in August.

The problem is that I didnt listen to DD at all. I plugged in my own projections and I used it as a tracker of players rather then to help me draft guys. Lewis was still around and it was still telling me to draft guys like Driver and Wayne in front of him. I thought Lewis as a late 3rd round pick was nice. I should have taken Gore but Hindsight is 20/20

elpasotexan · Nov 9, 2006

You didn't update or use a recent version, did you? That would definitely also influence what players the DD would spit out.

AcerFC · Nov 9, 2006

elpasotexan said:
You didn't update or use a recent version, did you? That would definitely also influence what players the DD would spit out.

I havent updated it since my draft in August

pinda · Nov 9, 2006

AcerFC said:
elpasotexan said:

You didn't update or use a recent version, did you? That would definitely also influence what players the DD would spit out.

Click to expand...

I havent updated it since my draft in August

this experiment has too many flaws, what about the teams that took the players that DD told you to take, how would they have drafted, would they even have drafted the same position. the person that ended up taking Manning later probably wouldn't go QB there, and go some other position, which would start a massive ripple effect.

AcerFC · Nov 9, 2006

pinda said:
AcerFC said:

elpasotexan said:

You didn't update or use a recent version, did you? That would definitely also influence what players the DD would spit out.

Click to expand...

I havent updated it since my draft in August

Click to expand...

this experiment has too many flaws, what about the teams that took the players that DD told you to take, how would they have drafted, would they even have drafted the same position. the person that ended up taking Manning later probably wouldn't go QB there, and go some other position, which would start a massive ripple effect.

I totally agree with you that there are too many flaws BUT, DD told me to take these guys at least a round or two before they were taken in my league. Your point is well taken though but I still see some merit in it

tommyGunZ · Nov 9, 2006

AcerFC said:
gregjcross said:

Good post. I think the only potential hole in it is:

a) Where did the draft dominator tell you to take Larry Fitzgerald and Jamal Lewis, those guys are hurting you because of the injury and inconsistency. Im sure there are a TON of teams they killed but it was hard not to like them in August.

Click to expand...

The problem is that I didnt listen to DD at all. I plugged in my own projections and I used it as a tracker of players rather then to help me draft guys. Lewis was still around and it was still telling me to draft guys like Driver and Wayne in front of him. I thought Lewis as a late 3rd round pick was nice. I should have taken Gore but Hindsight is 20/20

That's where you lost. These guys do this for a living - use their projections, and then make a few tweaks if you feel they're way off base on some players. Then, when you're drafting, make your choice from the top 10-20 players the dominator suggests are highest on the board. This way, you'll limit reaches yet you're still picking the players you think are in for big years. Going blindly by the dominator is too boring and takes the fun out of it.

In short - the dominator is the best drafting tool on the net, but it is just a tool.

Rogi · Nov 9, 2006

I'm a little of track with this, but did DraftDominator rank Caddy or Ronnie Brown higher this year? Just curious.

[scooter] · Nov 10, 2006

Interesting post, but there is no way that you would have been disciplined enough to follow the DD's advice to pick all those WRs. Very few people could stand to wait until the 4th round to pick their 1st RB, and then follow that by picking a backup RB as their #2. (Then grabbing a 3rd string RB as your #3 RB).

AcerFC · Nov 10, 2006

' date='Nov 10 2006, 01:59 AM' post='5881960']

Interesting post, but there is no way that you would have been disciplined enough to follow the DD's advice to pick all those WRs. Very few people could stand to wait until the 4th round to pick their 1st RB, and then follow that by picking a backup RB as their #2. (Then grabbing a 3rd string RB as your #3 RB).

That is an interesting point. I think that while I agree with you, my league has 1 ppr for WR and 1.5 ppr for TE so it makes up abit for lack of stud RBS. I agree though, I probably would not have taken Driver, Wayne and Smith (especially being hurt) before I was able to grab a RB a little higher of calibur then TJ

radballs · Nov 10, 2006

Did you use worst starter or Joe's Secret Formula as the baseline? This makes a huge difference.

What is your scoring system like? I used the DD for multiple leagues (some with very preferential QB scoring) and none of them had it recommending Manning in the first round let alone the 5th or 6th overall pick that you must have used to get Ronnie Brown.

Another flaw with the hindsight is 20/20 recap similar to what scooter said is that you wouldn't ever wait on a RB that late because any RB ranked after the top 25 going into the season is a crapshoot. You would have had to hit on all your late round RBs to actually do anything and you only had 3 drafted after 10 rounds. This could not have played out this way.

radballs · Nov 10, 2006

AcerFC said:
' date='Nov 10 2006, 01:59 AM' post='5881960']

Interesting post, but there is no way that you would have been disciplined enough to follow the DD's advice to pick all those WRs. Very few people could stand to wait until the 4th round to pick their 1st RB, and then follow that by picking a backup RB as their #2. (Then grabbing a 3rd string RB as your #3 RB).

Click to expand...

That is an interesting point. I think that while I agree with you, my league has 1 ppr for WR and 1.5 ppr for TE so it makes up abit for lack of stud RBS. I agree though, I probably would not have taken Driver, Wayne and Smith (especially being hurt) before I was able to grab a RB a little higher of calibur then TJ

Given that it is ppr for WR and 1.5 for TE, I don't think there is anyway possible that the DD told you to take Manning that early in the draft. Are you sure you had your league scoring as well as all of the other league settings inputted correctly into the DD file? Seems like something is off.

AcerFC · Nov 10, 2006

radballs said:
Did you use worst starter or Joe's Secret Formula as the baseline? This makes a huge difference.What is your scoring system like? I used the DD for multiple leagues (some with very preferential QB scoring) and none of them had it recommending Manning in the first round let alone the 5th or 6th overall pick that you must have used to get Ronnie Brown.Another flaw with the hindsight is 20/20 recap similar to what scooter said is that you wouldn't ever wait on a RB that late because any RB ranked after the top 25 going into the season is a crapshoot. You would have had to hit on all your late round RBs to actually do anything and you only had 3 drafted after 10 rounds. This could not have played out this way.

I used whatever was the default setting. I did not change that. The only reason I got Brown at 6 was because I traded up from 10.It had Manning as the number 10 pickAs for the ppr, I went back to look and I did not add that in to the mock draft that I just had. You are right, I remember that the DD had Gates as high as #5 with the 1.5 ppr, BUT it still always had Manning as a first rounder. QBS get 6pts per TD in my league, maybe that had to do with it

AcerFC · Nov 13, 2006

Would have been in the top flight again this week. 130 points without Smith going yet. Just an update. Will not post every week but just venting because my crew only scored 83 pointd this week. There is always next year

redaddy25 · Nov 13, 2006

' date='Nov 10 2006, 01:59 AM' post='5881960']

Interesting post, but there is no way that you would have been disciplined enough to follow the DD's advice to pick all those WRs. Very few people could stand to wait until the 4th round to pick their 1st RB, and then follow that by picking a backup RB as their #2. (Then grabbing a 3rd string RB as your #3 RB).

I actually was patient enough to try this in my second league. I have always wanted to try it and gave it a shot, I had the 4th overall pick and the top 3 RB's were gone. You start 2QB/2RB/3WR/TE/K/TDI stuck completely to the top 50 list VBD list except for Tiki was 4th, Peyton was 5th, and I took Peyton.

1st - Manning

2nd - Fitzgerald

3rd - Wayne

4th - Owens

5th - Gore

So I actually waited until the 5th for my first RB, the other RB's I ended up getting were Ahman Green, Tatum & Mike Bell, Dom Rhodes, DeAngelo Williams. I moved DeAngelo earlier in the season to the Foster owner along with Favre and now have Brady as my 2nd QB.

Here is my current roster...

QB - P. Manning, Brady, V. Young, Gradkowski

RB - Gore, A. Green, T. Bell, Rhodes

WR - Wayne, Owens, Fitzgerald, B. Edwards, Jennings

TE - Tony G

K - Graham

D - Ravens

I am leading in points and have an 8-2 record, but I don't see me making a habit of this every year. I was lucky to land Gore in the 5th and to take the right lower level RB's that panned out. If I take a few different RB's (Jamal/Barlow/Lundy) I wouldn't be nearly as good as I am.

AcerFC · Nov 13, 2006

redaddy25 said:
' date='Nov 10 2006, 01:59 AM' post='5881960']

Interesting post, but there is no way that you would have been disciplined enough to follow the DD's advice to pick all those WRs. Very few people could stand to wait until the 4th round to pick their 1st RB, and then follow that by picking a backup RB as their #2. (Then grabbing a 3rd string RB as your #3 RB).

Click to expand...

I actually was patient enough to try this in my second league. I have always wanted to try it and gave it a shot, I had the 4th overall pick and the top 3 RB's were gone. You start 2QB/2RB/3WR/TE/K/TDI stuck completely to the top 50 list VBD list except for Tiki was 4th, Peyton was 5th, and I took Peyton.

1st - Manning

2nd - Fitzgerald

3rd - Wayne

4th - Owens

5th - Gore

So I actually waited until the 5th for my first RB, the other RB's I ended up getting were Ahman Green, Tatum & Mike Bell, Dom Rhodes, DeAngelo Williams. I moved DeAngelo earlier in the season to the Foster owner along with Favre and now have Brady as my 2nd QB.

Here is my current roster...

QB - P. Manning, Brady, V. Young, Gradkowski

RB - Gore, A. Green, T. Bell, Rhodes

WR - Wayne, Owens, Fitzgerald, B. Edwards, Jennings

TE - Tony G

K - Graham

D - Ravens

I am leading in points and have an 8-2 record, but I don't see me making a habit of this every year. I was lucky to land Gore in the 5th and to take the right lower level RB's that panned out. If I take a few different RB's (Jamal/Barlow/Lundy) I wouldn't be nearly as good as I am.

Thanks for sharing that. I was starting to think that no one has ever done it. Seems like it worked for you, I would be interested to see how it may have worked (or not worked) for others

baronson · Nov 13, 2006

i did it this year in a 14 team redraft (no ppr). i had the 11th pick, and didn't like any RBs (except KJones, but i'd be reaching at both picks) so i went Chad, Smith, Driver, Plax, McNabb, Rhodes. i traded Chad for Julius Jones a few weeks ago (and also picked up Barber III in another deal that week for Reggie Williams) and i'm 5-4 and in a dogfight this week (need 100 yds from Smith tonight to go 6-4), though i am 2nd overall in points.

we start 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 3Flex, so it's feasible to go "4 wide" and be successful. in a league like this, you just take the best players on the board. everyone thought i was crazy after the draft (as they do every year) but i'm always near the top. again this year. i like this strategy if lineups permit it.

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