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Week 11 showdown... LT @ DEN - run defense (1 Viewer)

JayMan

JayMan

Footballguy
I think that one of the most interesting matchup for the upcoming week is the clash of titans on Sunday night between the Chargers rushing attack - and particularly LT (obvisouly!) against the stellar run defense of the Broncos (especially at home)...

Below are the stats of all the rushers that had at least 10 rushing yards against the Broncos in Denver in '06:

Larry Johnson---rb--27-126-0-5-41-0Joseph Addai----rb--17--93-0-5-37-0LaMont Jordan---rb--23--60-0-2-16-0Jamal Lewis-----rb--15--43-0-1--1-0Mike Anderson---rb---5--31-0-0--0-0Michael Bennett-rb---6--19-0-0--0-0Steve McNair----qb---2--15-0-0--0-0Musa Smith------rb---3--14-0-6-53-0Justin Fargas---rb---3--11-0-0--0-0Zack Crockett---rb---1--10-0-0--0-0Below are LT's road game logs in '06 so far:
Code: 
1--OAK--31-131-1-3-18-04--BAL--27--98-0-1--7-06---SF--21--71-4-7-64-07---KC--15--66-0-6-72-110-CIN--22-104-4-6-54-0
As you can see:LT has been on fire with an average of (94.0/1.8 - 4.6/43.0/0.2) 30.3 ppr FFpts/gm on the road this year

while the Broncos run DEF has allowed an average of (42.2/0.0 - 1.9/14.8/0.0) 7.6 ppr FFpts/gm at home this season

No rushing TDs allowed in '06 in Denver for the Broncos... and LT has 2 4TDs game on the road this year...

What gives? Your thoughts...

 
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I think if they completely sell out to stop LT, then Rivers is gonna have a monster game. Too much talent on that offense between Gates, Rivers, some serviceable WR's and LT out of the backfield. Play action all day

 
i expect gates and lt to have monster games.

lt2 will probably run for 23/115 but will be very effective catching the ball

 
LaDanian has NEVER rushed for more than 100 yards in Denver - his best output there was 75 yards back in '01. I don't expect that to change this week.

 
Gr00vus said:
LaDanian has NEVER rushed for more than 100 yards in Denver - his best output there was 75 yards back in '01. I don't expect that to change this week.
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You may be right but he'll probably still get his usual 2 to 3 tds and 40 to 50 yds receiving.
 
Kudos for not allowing a TD, but are the Denver defensive stats good because the defense is good, or because they have only faced one good runningback? I expect the latter.

Keep in mind that Addai was just beginning to take control of the Indy RB position when they came to Denver. Everyone else on that list below him are below average RBs.

I expect the Denver defense stats won't look so good this Sunday.

 
bigfishboy said:
Kudos for not allowing a TD, but are the Denver defensive stats good because the defense is good, or because they have only faced one good runningback? I expect the latter.Keep in mind that Addai was just beginning to take control of the Indy RB position when they came to Denver. Everyone else on that list below him are below average RBs.I expect the Denver defense stats won't look so good this Sunday.
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Interesting take and :goodposting: What I'm looking for is finding out if LT is going to be able to reach paydirt?... and if so, more than once?...Just the fact that the Chargers have a more weapon than most other teams can be looked at both ways... is LT going to score because the Broncos were able to key on LJ (with Champ shutting down Gonzalez) prior this year but won't be able to do so with LJ? Or, is the presence of Gates / Namu / Floyd / VJackson enough for the Chargers not to have to rely on LT to score?...My best guess is that LT is such a treat in the open field that they will be able to isolate him on a short (screen or checkdown or play action) pass, that he will take to the house...
 
bigfishboy said:
Kudos for not allowing a TD, but are the Denver defensive stats good because the defense is good, or because they have only faced one good runningback? I expect the latter.Keep in mind that Addai was just beginning to take control of the Indy RB position when they came to Denver. Everyone else on that list below him are below average RBs.I expect the Denver defense stats won't look so good this Sunday.
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The Denver D is good and will do better than the past 5 teams but no team completely shuts down LT. He'll be one of the top fantasy performers this week as well.
 
The Broncos MO agaisnt the Bolts is to sell out with the pass and run blitz. Brees never could really master it and the Broncos usually came away with the W. I expect the same strategy to by imployed until Marty proves he can beat it. Is Rivers capable of it? Everything I have seen suggests yes. Rivers is the guy I expect to put up the big numbers, LT not as much.

 
No more than 90 total yards and about a 50% chance at a TD from LT this week. Still a 100% chance he'll be in my lineup, though.

 
LaDainian scored 2 rushing touchdowns last year in Denver. Those are the only touchdowns he's scored in Denver in 5 years rushing or receiving. The most receiving yards he's ever had in Denver was 49. He averages 52.8 rushing yards, 17.2 receiving yards, 0.4 touchdowns playing in Denver over his career.

 
The Broncos rush d is not as good as Pitt or Bal, but it is good. I'd say it's even with KC's rush defense at home. LT went for 15 for 66 and 6 for 72 and a touch @ KC. I'd suspect he'll need to catch around the same amount of passes this week if he is going to put up big numbers again. And it's certainly possible, if not probable, that he catches a lot of passes this game. Denver does not defend RBs as receivers well this year at all.

 
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I'm going against LT this week, so I expect

29 carries for 211 & 3 TD

7 recpts for 77 yards and 1 TD

 
Gold Plated Nails said:
The Broncos MO agaisnt the Bolts is to sell out with the pass and run blitz. Brees never could really master it and the Broncos usually came away with the W. I expect the same strategy to by imployed until Marty proves he can beat it. Is Rivers capable of it? Everything I have seen suggests yes. Rivers is the guy I expect to put up the big numbers, LT not as much.
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:goodposting: This game is really going to come down to which QB plays best, especially avoiding costly mistakes like the ones made by Brees which cost the Chargers last year's game.
 
Tom Baker said:
No more than 90 total yards and about a 50% chance at a TD from LT this week. Still a 100% chance he'll be in my lineup, though.
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;) I'm pretty about this - and there shouldn't be a doubt about that!I think the real question is (compared to other weeks) - are you going to have to rely on another player (for once!) to win your game this weekend?

 
Gr00vus said:
Gold Plated Nails said:
The Broncos MO agaisnt the Bolts is to sell out with the pass and run blitz. Brees never could really master it and the Broncos usually came away with the W. I expect the same strategy to by imployed until Marty proves he can beat it. Is Rivers capable of it? Everything I have seen suggests yes. Rivers is the guy I expect to put up the big numbers, LT not as much.
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:goodposting: This game is really going to come down to which QB plays best, especially avoiding costly mistakes like the ones made by Brees which cost the Chargers last year's game.
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The INT to Baily was arguably the worst play of the season last year. Hopefully Rivers just looks away from Bailys guy all game.
 
Gold Plated Nails said:
The INT to Baily was arguably the worst play of the season last year. Hopefully Rivers just looks away from Bailys guy all game.
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It's tough for me to decide between that one, and the one Brees threw at the and of the 1st half as they were going in for a score from like the Bronco 5. Even if they only got a field goal on that I think the result would have been much different. That one really changed the momentum as the Chargers were owning the Broncos up to that point. But the one Bailey got and took all the way back is right there with it.
 
JayMan said:
Tom Baker said:
No more than 90 total yards and about a 50% chance at a TD from LT this week. Still a 100% chance he'll be in my lineup, though.
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;) I'm pretty about this - and there shouldn't be a doubt about that!I think the real question is (compared to other weeks) - are you going to have to rely on another player (for once!) to win your game this weekend?
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Amazingly enough, my team is 10-0, and in 7 of those weeks, LT's points could be removed entirely from my total and I'd still have won. Needless to say, life is good this year . . . so far . . . ;)
 
From 2002-2005, LT averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, less than 100 total yards per game, and had just two TDs in four games at Arrowhead Stadium. This year, he had 142 total yards and a TD.

"Against this team" stats are meaningless.

 
Tom Baker said:
JayMan said:
Tom Baker said:
No more than 90 total yards and about a 50% chance at a TD from LT this week. Still a 100% chance he'll be in my lineup, though.
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;) I'm pretty about this - and there shouldn't be a doubt about that!I think the real question is (compared to other weeks) - are you going to have to rely on another player (for once!) to win your game this weekend?
Click to expand...
Amazingly enough, my team is 10-0, and in 7 of those weeks, LT's points could be removed entirely from my total and I'd still have won. Needless to say, life is good this year . . . so far . . . ;)
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I wouldn't want to jinx you... but... :stirspot:
 
CalBear said:
From 2002-2005, LT averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, less than 100 total yards per game, and had just two TDs in four games at Arrowhead Stadium. This year, he had 142 total yards and a TD."Against this team" stats are meaningless.
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:no:Sometimes teams actually have personel and game plans that really do cause problems. This is one of those times.
 
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Gr00vus said:
CalBear said:
From 2002-2005, LT averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, less than 100 total yards per game, and had just two TDs in four games at Arrowhead Stadium. This year, he had 142 total yards and a TD."Against this team" stats are meaningless.
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:no:Sometimes teams actually have personel and game plans that really do cause problems. This is one of those times.
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Before 2005, Shaun Alexander never had more than 65 total yards against the Arizona Cardinals on the road. In 2005, he rushed for 173 and two TDs. Splits happen.
 
JayMan said:
Tom Baker said:
JayMan said:
Tom Baker said:
No more than 90 total yards and about a 50% chance at a TD from LT this week. Still a 100% chance he'll be in my lineup, though.
Click to expand...
;) I'm pretty about this - and there shouldn't be a doubt about that!I think the real question is (compared to other weeks) - are you going to have to rely on another player (for once!) to win your game this weekend?
Click to expand...
Amazingly enough, my team is 10-0, and in 7 of those weeks, LT's points could be removed entirely from my total and I'd still have won. Needless to say, life is good this year . . . so far . . . ;)
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I wouldn't want to jinx you... but... :stirspot:
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No jinx needed. Late season implosions are my specialty . . .
 
CalBear said:
Before 2005, Shaun Alexander never had more than 65 total yards against the Arizona Cardinals on the road. In 2005, he rushed for 173 and two TDs. Splits happen.
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Arizona's defense was extremely banged up and was playing pretty poorly at that time. What part of that relates to Denver's defense right now, or in the games LaDainian has played against them in Denver up to now?Stats aren't everything, but in this case they definitely paint a valid picture that LaDainian typically struggles when he plays in Denver. Denver game plans for it and have the people to carry out the game plan, and it's quite possible that the 2006 Denver defense will be the toughest Denver defense LaDainian has seen yet. People expecting another stellar week from LaDainian are setting themselves up for a big fall in my opinion. If he gets 100 yards combined you should be happy.
 
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Gr00vus said:
Stats aren't everything, but in this case they definitely paint a valid picture that LaDainian typically struggles when he plays in Denver. Denver game plans for it and have the people to carry out the game plan, and it's quite possible that the 2006 Denver defense will be the toughest Denver defense LaDainian has seen yet. People expecting another stellar week from LaDainian are setting themselves up for a big fall in my opinion. If he gets 100 yards combined you should be happy.
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Shockingly, San Diego game plans for Denver, too, and it's definitely the case that the 2006 Ladanian Tomlinson is the toughest Ladanian Tomlinson Denver has seen yet.
 
CalBear said:
Gr00vus said:
Stats aren't everything, but in this case they definitely paint a valid picture that LaDainian typically struggles when he plays in Denver. Denver game plans for it and have the people to carry out the game plan, and it's quite possible that the 2006 Denver defense will be the toughest Denver defense LaDainian has seen yet. People expecting another stellar week from LaDainian are setting themselves up for a big fall in my opinion. If he gets 100 yards combined you should be happy.
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Shockingly, San Diego game plans for Denver, too, and it's definitely the case that the 2006 Ladanian Tomlinson is the toughest Ladanian Tomlinson Denver has seen yet.
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Apparently the Denver defensive game plan for stopping the run has been better than San Diego's offensive rushing game plan then for quite some time - so I don't really know what point you're tyring to make there.History would indicate that the Broncos have had success shutting LaDainian down in Denver. Currently the Broncos are the #4 rushing defense in terms of avg yards per game given up. They're the #1 defense in rushing scores allowed, giving up 2 rushing tds all year. Just ahead of the Bronco rush defense is the Baltimore rush defense, against which LaDainian put up 105 combined yards and no scores.Sure something out of the ordinary may happen this week, but all indications (past and present) seem to indicate that the expectations for LaDainian this week should be modest.
 
I just know that my chances of winning the subscriber contest are exponentially higher if most of the LT owners are knocked out this week. So I'm rooting for about 70 total yards and no TDs.

 
Gr00vus said:
CalBear said:
Gr00vus said:
Stats aren't everything, but in this case they definitely paint a valid picture that LaDainian typically struggles when he plays in Denver. Denver game plans for it and have the people to carry out the game plan, and it's quite possible that the 2006 Denver defense will be the toughest Denver defense LaDainian has seen yet. People expecting another stellar week from LaDainian are setting themselves up for a big fall in my opinion. If he gets 100 yards combined you should be happy.
Click to expand...
Shockingly, San Diego game plans for Denver, too, and it's definitely the case that the 2006 Ladanian Tomlinson is the toughest Ladanian Tomlinson Denver has seen yet.
Click to expand...
Apparently the Denver defensive game plan for stopping the run has been better than San Diego's offensive rushing game plan then for quite some time - so I don't really know what point you're tyring to make there.History would indicate that the Broncos have had success shutting LaDainian down in Denver. Currently the Broncos are the #4 rushing defense in terms of avg yards per game given up. They're the #1 defense in rushing scores allowed, giving up 2 rushing tds all year. Just ahead of the Bronco rush defense is the Baltimore rush defense, against which LaDainian put up 105 combined yards and no scores.Sure something out of the ordinary may happen this week, but all indications (past and present) seem to indicate that the expectations for LaDainian this week should be modest.
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Ah, so Denver's game plan works great in Denver, but someone steals their defensive playbooks when they come to San Diego? (Tomlinson has averaged 154 yards and has 6 TDs in 4 games against Denver in San Diego). Larry Johnson, playing in Damon Huard's first start, put up 126 yards against Denver this year. There's no reason to expect Denver should do any better shutting down Tomlinson than they did against LJ.
 
CalBear said:
Gr00vus said:
CalBear said:
Gr00vus said:
Stats aren't everything, but in this case they definitely paint a valid picture that LaDainian typically struggles when he plays in Denver. Denver game plans for it and have the people to carry out the game plan, and it's quite possible that the 2006 Denver defense will be the toughest Denver defense LaDainian has seen yet. People expecting another stellar week from LaDainian are setting themselves up for a big fall in my opinion. If he gets 100 yards combined you should be happy.
Click to expand...
Shockingly, San Diego game plans for Denver, too, and it's definitely the case that the 2006 Ladanian Tomlinson is the toughest Ladanian Tomlinson Denver has seen yet.
Click to expand...
Apparently the Denver defensive game plan for stopping the run has been better than San Diego's offensive rushing game plan then for quite some time - so I don't really know what point you're tyring to make there.History would indicate that the Broncos have had success shutting LaDainian down in Denver. Currently the Broncos are the #4 rushing defense in terms of avg yards per game given up. They're the #1 defense in rushing scores allowed, giving up 2 rushing tds all year. Just ahead of the Bronco rush defense is the Baltimore rush defense, against which LaDainian put up 105 combined yards and no scores.Sure something out of the ordinary may happen this week, but all indications (past and present) seem to indicate that the expectations for LaDainian this week should be modest.
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Ah, so Denver's game plan works great in Denver, but someone steals their defensive playbooks when they come to San Diego? (Tomlinson has averaged 154 yards and has 6 TDs in 4 games against Denver in San Diego). Larry Johnson, playing in Damon Huard's first start, put up 126 yards against Denver this year. There's no reason to expect Denver should do any better shutting down Tomlinson than they did against LJ.
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You mean other than the fact that they've shut him down the other 5 times he's played in Denver?
 
CalBear said:
Gr00vus said:
CalBear said:
Gr00vus said:
Stats aren't everything, but in this case they definitely paint a valid picture that LaDainian typically struggles when he plays in Denver. Denver game plans for it and have the people to carry out the game plan, and it's quite possible that the 2006 Denver defense will be the toughest Denver defense LaDainian has seen yet. People expecting another stellar week from LaDainian are setting themselves up for a big fall in my opinion. If he gets 100 yards combined you should be happy.
Click to expand...
Shockingly, San Diego game plans for Denver, too, and it's definitely the case that the 2006 Ladanian Tomlinson is the toughest Ladanian Tomlinson Denver has seen yet.
Click to expand...
Apparently the Denver defensive game plan for stopping the run has been better than San Diego's offensive rushing game plan then for quite some time - so I don't really know what point you're tyring to make there.History would indicate that the Broncos have had success shutting LaDainian down in Denver. Currently the Broncos are the #4 rushing defense in terms of avg yards per game given up. They're the #1 defense in rushing scores allowed, giving up 2 rushing tds all year. Just ahead of the Bronco rush defense is the Baltimore rush defense, against which LaDainian put up 105 combined yards and no scores.Sure something out of the ordinary may happen this week, but all indications (past and present) seem to indicate that the expectations for LaDainian this week should be modest.
Click to expand...
Ah, so Denver's game plan works great in Denver, but someone steals their defensive playbooks when they come to San Diego? (Tomlinson has averaged 154 yards and has 6 TDs in 4 games against Denver in San Diego). Larry Johnson, playing in Damon Huard's first start, put up 126 yards against Denver this year. There's no reason to expect Denver should do any better shutting down Tomlinson than they did against LJ.
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This is an interesting debate whether to rely on historical stats or more current stats. When looking at situations like this history has to be in the equation but a small part IMO especially from more than 1 or 2 years ago. What LT did against Denver in '02, '03 has little to do with what will happen on Sunday. Different QB, different line, top flight TE, a real defense (for TOP/field position) on the SD side and Denver has totally revamped their defense. Their game plans may be the same but the personnel on both teams has changed dramatically on both sides of the ball. While the combined stats from years ago are interesting I think they will have little bearing on what will actually happen this sunday. What is of more interest IMO is how they did last year vs. LT and how Denver has done against other top backs/offenses this year. Last year @ Denver LT ran for 19-52 and 2 tds (not bad point wise). So far Denver has faced KC (13), Balt (25), Oak (24) and Indy (18) rushing attacks at home (SD is #2 so the best one they've faced yet). The only elite back in nearly the same class as LT that played Denver at home was LJ (who had a decent yardage day - 126 yards). LJ was also facing them in the 2nd game of the season which was Huard's 1st career start after the game 1 Green injury. The only top offense Denver has faced is Indy which lit them up and Addai ran for 17-93 (5.47 ypc). What does this all mean? Who knows but I do know that Denver couldn't stop the only other good offense they played at home and SD is of a similar caliber. I don't expect LT to run wild but 100 yards and 1 td is not out of the question and is in fact probable IMO. Multiple td's, huge rush #'s like he's been putting up lately are a much more remote possibility.
 
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Gr00vus said:
History would indicate that the Broncos have had success shutting LaDainian down in Denver. Currently the Broncos are the #4 rushing defense in terms of avg yards per game given up. They're the #1 defense in rushing scores allowed, giving up 2 rushing tds all year. Just ahead of the Bronco rush defense is the Baltimore rush defense, against which LaDainian put up 105 combined yards and no scores.
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History aside, this year SD is #1 in scoring and #1 in rush TD's by a wide margin (19 and the 2nd place team has 13) has the #4 offense overall. It's strength on strength and while I don't expect SD to run on Denver like they have on most other teams, I don't expect Denver to shut them down like they have against many of the lesser rush offenses. Denver has averaged 86 yards against on the ground so 95-105 isn't out the question at all IMO.
 
Banger said:
Gr00vus said:
History would indicate that the Broncos have had success shutting LaDainian down in Denver. Currently the Broncos are the #4 rushing defense in terms of avg yards per game given up. They're the #1 defense in rushing scores allowed, giving up 2 rushing tds all year. Just ahead of the Bronco rush defense is the Baltimore rush defense, against which LaDainian put up 105 combined yards and no scores.
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History aside, this year SD is #1 in scoring and #1 in rush TD's by a wide margin (19 and the 2nd place team has 13) has the #4 offense overall. It's strength on strength and while I don't expect SD to run on Denver like they have on most other teams, I don't expect Denver to shut them down like they have against many of the lesser rush offenses. Denver has averaged 86 yards against on the ground so 95-105 isn't out the question at all IMO.
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I agree. My prior comments were directed at those expecting numbers similar to what LaDainian's been doing the last 5 weeks. I think people expecting/hoping for something like that (especially the TD extravaganza) this week will be disappointed. I certainly do hope I'm wrong about that however. ;)
 
Gr00vus said:
Banger said:
Gr00vus said:
History would indicate that the Broncos have had success shutting LaDainian down in Denver. Currently the Broncos are the #4 rushing defense in terms of avg yards per game given up. They're the #1 defense in rushing scores allowed, giving up 2 rushing tds all year. Just ahead of the Bronco rush defense is the Baltimore rush defense, against which LaDainian put up 105 combined yards and no scores.
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History aside, this year SD is #1 in scoring and #1 in rush TD's by a wide margin (19 and the 2nd place team has 13) has the #4 offense overall. It's strength on strength and while I don't expect SD to run on Denver like they have on most other teams, I don't expect Denver to shut them down like they have against many of the lesser rush offenses. Denver has averaged 86 yards against on the ground so 95-105 isn't out the question at all IMO.
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I agree. My prior comments were directed at those expecting numbers similar to what LaDainian's been doing the last 5 weeks. I think people expecting/hoping for something like that (especially the TD extravaganza) this week will be disappointed. I certainly do hope I'm wrong about that however. ;)
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I wouldn't expect numbers like he's put up the past five weeks, but that would be true no matter who he was playing. I think he's still the best RB in the league, playing on one of the top offenses in the league, and that's a lot more relevant than the fact that Denver held him to 58 yards in 2001.
 
Am I the only one who remembers that Willie Parker put up 137 total yards and 2 TDs against the Broncos? And despite what this thread indicates FWP had a rushing TD. So the Broncos have given up a rushing TD.

Things like will LT2 play well this week should be debated as often as will the sun rise tomorrow.

 
Gr00vus said:
LaDanian has NEVER rushed for more than 100 yards in Denver - his best output there was 75 yards back in '01. I don't expect that to change this week.
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I agree.I can't pick numbers, so I'll just say:rush yards < 99rec. yards > 50rush TDs = .5rec. TDs = 1.5He's still gonna have a top-12 RB day, so you muststart him, but I don't see an explosive game like the last few weeks.
 
Groovus should prepare for a big helping of crow when this week ends.

Even if LT's yardage stats aren't great, he's one of the few guys who will get the opportunity to put up multiple TD's on a weekly basis. Denver is not going to be able to stop both LT and Rivers, so even if Rivers moves down the field, LT will always get the opportunity to score TD's.

23 carries 85 yards 1 TD

6 catches 45 yards 1 TD

LT is on pace to beat SA's TD record from last year. If you've been watching, everytime they get inside the 10, LT gets first crack at the endzone. This will continue because:

1. He usually scores.

2. Everyone on SD is aware of the TD record and wants LT to have a shot at it.

You can look to the past matchups, but the fact is that LT is healthier than he's been since 2003 and on a tremendous TD roll. I think this game will be the quintessential reaffirmation of the old agage "always start your studs regardless of matchup."

 
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PACKER 7 said:
Am I the only one who remembers that Willie Parker put up 137 total yards and 2 TDs against the Broncos? And despite what this thread indicates FWP had a rushing TD. So the Broncos have given up a rushing TD.Things like will LT2 play well this week should be debated as often as will the sun rise tomorrow.
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2005 Week 7 Vs. Philly: 17 7 0 4 26 0And there are others.The sun always rises. Sorry. It's a valid discussion. And nobody said Denver has yet to surrender a rushing TD. They've surrendered 2, actually. The one to FWP and one to Lamont Jordan last week. However, they have NOT yet surrendered a rushing TD AT HOME.That said, the FWP comparison is an apt one, and I think that's close to what we can expect from LT (albeit, I hope with less TDs). I expect a subpar game on the ground but he should put up decent receiving numbers. Keep in mind also that FWPs receiving TD in that game came on a complete defensive meltdown by Denver which led to his being wide open in the endzone after some great improvisation by Big Ben.I don't really like the LJ comparison that some posters are making. LJ is a very powerful RB, and matches up extremely well against Denver's small athletic defenders. Even if he can't run by them, he can certainly run over them (so he does). The reason the Denver D tends to play well (at least better than average) against LT is because they match up better against his strengths than most teams - his strengths being his quickness, his vision, and his shiftiness. Denver's D is usually very good at staying in position which mitigates LT's good vision; they are extremely fast, which mitigates his quickness; and they are usually (not always, but usually) very sure tacklers (especially in the open field, see Champ Baily) which mitigates his shiftiness. I also don't really like the Addai comparison, because Denver's defensive gameplan against Indy was one of the most conservative I've ever seen. The LBs were consistently 5+ yards off the LOS which gave Addai little trouble reaching the second level on most rushing plays. Denver sold out in that game to stop the big play and seemed completely willing to allow 5-10 yard gains. I expect a much more aggressive gameplan this week.My predictions: 21 70 1 4 30 0Start him with confidence (this should not be, and I'm fairly certain is not being, debated) but do temper your expectations.
 
thatguy said:
PACKER 7 said:
Am I the only one who remembers that Willie Parker put up 137 total yards and 2 TDs against the Broncos? And despite what this thread indicates FWP had a rushing TD. So the Broncos have given up a rushing TD.Things like will LT2 play well this week should be debated as often as will the sun rise tomorrow.
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2005 Week 7 Vs. Philly: 17 7 0 4 26 0And there are others.The sun always rises. Sorry. It's a valid discussion. And nobody said Denver has yet to surrender a rushing TD. They've surrendered 2, actually. The one to FWP and one to Lamont Jordan last week. However, they have NOT yet surrendered a rushing TD AT HOME.That said, the FWP comparison is an apt one, and I think that's close to what we can expect from LT (albeit, I hope with less TDs). I expect a subpar game on the ground but he should put up decent receiving numbers. Keep in mind also that FWPs receiving TD in that game came on a complete defensive meltdown by Denver which led to his being wide open in the endzone after some great improvisation by Big Ben.I don't really like the LJ comparison that some posters are making. LJ is a very powerful RB, and matches up extremely well against Denver's small athletic defenders. Even if he can't run by them, he can certainly run over them (so he does). The reason the Denver D tends to play well (at least better than average) against LT is because they match up better against his strengths than most teams - his strengths being his quickness, his vision, and his shiftiness. Denver's D is usually very good at staying in position which mitigates LT's good vision; they are extremely fast, which mitigates his quickness; and they are usually (not always, but usually) very sure tacklers (especially in the open field, see Champ Baily) which mitigates his shiftiness. I also don't really like the Addai comparison, because Denver's defensive gameplan against Indy was one of the most conservative I've ever seen. The LBs were consistently 5+ yards off the LOS which gave Addai little trouble reaching the second level on most rushing plays. Denver sold out in that game to stop the big play and seemed completely willing to allow 5-10 yard gains. I expect a much more aggressive gameplan this week.My predictions: 21 70 1 4 30 0Start him with confidence (this should not be, and I'm fairly certain is not being, debated) but do temper your expectations.
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:goodposting:
 
thatguy said:
PACKER 7 said:
Am I the only one who remembers that Willie Parker put up 137 total yards and 2 TDs against the Broncos? And despite what this thread indicates FWP had a rushing TD. So the Broncos have given up a rushing TD.Things like will LT2 play well this week should be debated as often as will the sun rise tomorrow.
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2005 Week 7 Vs. Philly: 17 7 0 4 26 0And there are others.The sun always rises. Sorry. It's a valid discussion. And nobody said Denver has yet to surrender a rushing TD. They've surrendered 2, actually. The one to FWP and one to Lamont Jordan last week. However, they have NOT yet surrendered a rushing TD AT HOME.That said, the FWP comparison is an apt one, and I think that's close to what we can expect from LT (albeit, I hope with less TDs). I expect a subpar game on the ground but he should put up decent receiving numbers. Keep in mind also that FWPs receiving TD in that game came on a complete defensive meltdown by Denver which led to his being wide open in the endzone after some great improvisation by Big Ben.I don't really like the LJ comparison that some posters are making. LJ is a very powerful RB, and matches up extremely well against Denver's small athletic defenders. Even if he can't run by them, he can certainly run over them (so he does). The reason the Denver D tends to play well (at least better than average) against LT is because they match up better against his strengths than most teams - his strengths being his quickness, his vision, and his shiftiness. Denver's D is usually very good at staying in position which mitigates LT's good vision; they are extremely fast, which mitigates his quickness; and they are usually (not always, but usually) very sure tacklers (especially in the open field, see Champ Baily) which mitigates his shiftiness. I also don't really like the Addai comparison, because Denver's defensive gameplan against Indy was one of the most conservative I've ever seen. The LBs were consistently 5+ yards off the LOS which gave Addai little trouble reaching the second level on most rushing plays. Denver sold out in that game to stop the big play and seemed completely willing to allow 5-10 yard gains. I expect a much more aggressive gameplan this week.My predictions: 21 70 1 4 30 0Start him with confidence (this should not be, and I'm fairly certain is not being, debated) but do temper your expectations.
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:goodposting: I'd put him down for about 100 yards combined, but I don't think he scores this week.
 
Lemmiwinks said:
Groovus should prepare for a big helping of crow when this week ends.
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I'd very gladly do so. As a Charger fan I hope LaDainian has a big game and leads the Chargers to a huge win. As a Charger fan I also realize there are many reasons to think that won't quite happen.
 
Gr00vus said:
Lemmiwinks said:
Groovus should prepare for a big helping of crow when this week ends.
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I'd very gladly do so. As a Charger fan I hope LaDainian has a big game and leads the Chargers to a huge win. As a Charger fan I also realize there are many reasons to think that won't quite happen.
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Groovus should prepare for a big helping of crow when this week ends.Even if LT's yardage stats aren't great, he's one of the few guys who will get the opportunity to put up multiple TD's on a weekly basis. Denver is not going to be able to stop both LT and Rivers, so even if Rivers moves down the field, LT will always get the opportunity to score TD's.23 carries 85 yards 1 TD6 catches 45 yards 1 TDLT is on pace to beat SA's TD record from last year. If you've been watching, everytime they get inside the 10, LT gets first crack at the endzone. This will continue because:1. He usually scores.2. Everyone on SD is aware of the TD record and wants LT to have a shot at it.You can look to the past matchups, but the fact is that LT is healthier than he's been since 2003 and on a tremendous TD roll. I think this game will be the quintessential reaffirmation of the old agage "always start your studs regardless of matchup."
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You just got :own3d: Come back to the thread of that nice hot helping of crow.Hell, even I undersold LT and my projection was the highest in the thread.
 
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