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Michael "The Burner" Turner (1 Viewer)

B

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
about where would SP rank turner?

for the purposes of this question, lets factor in he is probably behind LT one more season & then is unleashed to become a feature RB somewhere in 08... this is complicated to assign value relative to other RBs since his eventual destination is unknown... but not impossible (maybe think of spread of possible destinations with range from bad to good, & try & average that projection/expectation)...

if a dynasty draft were held TODAY... would he be a top 10-15-20-25 RB?

 
Bob_Magaw said:
about where would SP rank turner?for the purposes of this question, lets factor in he is probably behind LT one more season & then is unleashed to become a feature RB somewhere in 08... this is complicated to assign value relative to other RBs since his eventual destination is unknown... but not impossible (maybe think of spread of possible destinations with range from bad to good, & try & average that projection/expectation)...if a dynasty draft were held TODAY... would he be a top 10-15-20-25 RB?
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You'd think he's top 5 with all the threads dedicated to him.Top 25-30
 
off the top of my head i was thinking top 10, but after looking at it more closely, i think more like top 15-20... but with top 10 upside... this is the point where it would be helpful to know where he lands... the margin for error based on not knowing where he lands & making estimate/projection very likely exceeds the roughly 5 RB increment i'm using in trying to peg value as top 10-15-20-25, etc...

 
Bob_Magaw said:
off the top of my head i was thinking top 10, but after looking at it more closely, i think more like top 15-20... but with top 10 upside... this is the point where it would be helpful to know where he lands... the margin for error based on not knowing where he lands & making estimate/projection very likely exceeds the roughly 5 RB increment i'm using in trying to peg value as top 10-15-20-25, etc...
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My ranking is based on the opinion that he'll be stuck behind L.T. for another year.
 
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aposulli said:
Bob_Magaw said:
off the top of my head i was thinking top 10, but after looking at it more closely, i think more like top 15-20... but with top 10 upside... this is the point where it would be helpful to know where he lands... the margin for error based on not knowing where he lands & making estimate/projection very likely exceeds the roughly 5 RB increment i'm using in trying to peg value as top 10-15-20-25, etc...
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My ranking is based on the opinion that he'll be stuck behind L.T. for another year.
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Mine too. The SP can start all of the threads in the world about Turner's RFA status, but nobody is ponying up a 1st round pick + for him.
 
alright, that is a good point, because everybody probably discounts differently what cost should be to have to sit on him for a year before his value is unlocked... & for some there is more uncertainty than others in whether he has goods to be feature RB...

lets say we have a time machine & it is now offseason leading into 08 season...

the burner has a starting gig (but we still don't know where)...

where would he rank THEN, all things being equal... all the other RBs stack up like 06 rankings (i suppose we have to factor that peterson &/or lynch may be starting somewhere, & RBs from class of 06 may be starting by next year, such as maroney, addai, williams, white, etc)...

 
top 30 at best. people assume he'll be a starter somewhere in a year. of course, people said the same about Betts, and he resigned in Wash.

think about it. how many true feature backs are there in the league these days? 7-10? he won't be supplanting any of those. and there may even be fewer than that in a years time if the trend continues.

plus, it looks like SD has put together a team that can be SB contenders for the next several years, so if SD can afford him (which it looks like they might), why wouldn't he stay?

he's top 30 until he signs with someone else. until then, there's too much risk that he stays put to assign top 15-20 value for him at this time. if i had him, i'd be selling. my god, people love to talk about this guy....

 
Bob_Magaw said:
alright, that is a good point, because everybody probably discounts differently what cost should be to have to sit on him for a year before his value is unlocked... & for some there is more uncertainty than others in whether he has goods to be feature RB...lets say we have a time machine & it is now offseason leading into 08 season...the burner has a starting gig (but we still don't know where)...where would he rank THEN, all things being equal... all the other RBs stack up like 06 rankings (i suppose we have to factor that peterson &/or lynch may be starting somewhere, & RBs from class of 06 may be starting by next year, such as maroney, addai, williams, white, etc)...
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I'd guess 11-14. In no specific order I'd have these guys ahead of him...1. LT2. LJ3. Westy4. Sjax5. Gore6. SA7. Rudi8. Parker9. Drew10. Portis I'd put him in with KJ, Ronnie Brown, maybe one of the rooks.
 
baronson said:
top 30 at best. people assume he'll be a starter somewhere in a year. of course, people said the same about Betts, and he resigned in Wash.think about it. how many true feature backs are there in the league these days? 7-10? he won't be supplanting any of those. and there may even be fewer than that in a years time if the trend continues. plus, it looks like SD has put together a team that can be SB contenders for the next several years, so if SD can afford him (which it looks like they might), why wouldn't he stay?he's top 30 until he signs with someone else. until then, there's too much risk that he stays put to assign top 15-20 value for him at this time. if i had him, i'd be selling. my god, people love to talk about this guy....
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I highly doubt that SD will have the funds nor will Turner have the desire to be a backup. The Chargers need to sign Diehlman and Phillips long term in the next few years which will cost a bit and are more important to the teams long term success. Turner is a nice to have but not worth paying top dollar for (which is why it won't happen).
 
I still think he gets dealt in the off-season. SD will get a good pick(s)/player for him that will help them more than having a guy like Turner ride the pine and then leave as a UFA in 08. They will want to get some value for him.

I have him at about 18-20 if he stays and top 10 if he goes to the Jets next year

 
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Why wouldn't the Chargers deal him this offseason?

Either you give him a costly and lengthy extension (ala Betts) or you have to deal him this year - because you would lose him after the '07 season (even if you tender him and don't deal him) - and get nothing in return...

The extension seems unlikely to me - since the Chargers have other top "starting" options: Tomlinson / Rivers / Gates / Merriman / Phillips to pay...

I'm guessing that they tender him the highest (1st & 3rd) and deal him afterwards for a 2nd or something of that nature... He's a top talent - but another team won't sell the bank for him - since they know they can do that after the '07 season if they which to...

 
baronson said:
top 30 at best. people assume he'll be a starter somewhere in a year. of course, people said the same about Betts, and he resigned in Wash.think about it. how many true feature backs are there in the league these days? 7-10? he won't be supplanting any of those. and there may even be fewer than that in a years time if the trend continues. plus, it looks like SD has put together a team that can be SB contenders for the next several years, so if SD can afford him (which it looks like they might), why wouldn't he stay?he's top 30 until he signs with someone else. until then, there's too much risk that he stays put to assign top 15-20 value for him at this time. if i had him, i'd be selling. my god, people love to talk about this guy....
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I actually think why would he stay behind LT not why wouldn't he, just because Betts did? San diego won't have the funds to sign him at what he's going to want. If I had him no way would I be selling right now. That said I have him ranked 25th right now but that would instantly jump 10 spots minimum if/when he starts somewhere and maybe higher depending on the team.
 
I think the Chargers will look at Turner as an expensive back-up if they keep him when they can go the cheaper route with RB Andrew Pinnock; who actually looked capable with his carries when MT was hurt.

 
JayMan said:
Why wouldn't the Chargers deal him this offseason?

Either you give him a costly and lengthy extension (ala Betts) or you have to deal him this year - because you would lose him after the '07 season (even if you tender him and don't deal him) - and get nothing in return...

The extension seems unlikely to me - since the Chargers have other top "starting" options: Tomlinson / Rivers / Gates / Merriman / Phillips to pay...

I'm guessing that they tender him the highest (1st & 3rd) and deal him afterwards for a 2nd or something of that nature... He's a top talent - but another team won't sell the bank for him - since they know they can do that after the '07 season if they which to...
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LT and Gates have been paid, Rivers is under contract for 3 more years and they are still well under the salary cap to extend Merriman and others. I'd rather they keep him for one more year if they can't get a first for him - remember AJ isn't averse to letting a player go with nothing in return if he thinks it's best for the team.
 
Garts said:
I think the Chargers will look at Turner as an expensive back-up if they keep him when they can go the cheaper route with RB Andrew Pinnock; who actually looked capable with his carries when MT was hurt.
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or Sproles or draft someone in the 3rd/4th/5th round. Consider that Turner was drafted toward the end of the 5th and Pinnock in the 7th. AJ has been adept at finding value throughout the draft and I'd imagine he'd go this route again.
 
off-topic: cstu, that's a great quote in your sig.

back on-topic: i'd say it's 80-20 that he leaves SD. however, that 20% of risk that he's stays behind LT2 for X more years dips his dynasty ranking to the low 30s, in my opinion.

 
cstu said:
JayMan said:
Why wouldn't the Chargers deal him this offseason?

Either you give him a costly and lengthy extension (ala Betts) or you have to deal him this year - because you would lose him after the '07 season (even if you tender him and don't deal him) - and get nothing in return...

The extension seems unlikely to me - since the Chargers have other top "starting" options: Tomlinson / Rivers / Gates / Merriman / Phillips to pay...

I'm guessing that they tender him the highest (1st & 3rd) and deal him afterwards for a 2nd or something of that nature... He's a top talent - but another team won't sell the bank for him - since they know they can do that after the '07 season if they which to...
Click to expand...
LT and Gates have been paid, Rivers is under contract for 3 more years and they are still well under the salary cap to extend Merriman and others. I'd rather they keep him for one more year if they can't get a first for him - remember AJ isn't averse to letting a player go with nothing in return if he thinks it's best for the team.
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But, don't you think it would be better for the Chargers to deal him for a 2nd rounder (or another player) in the offseason - to ciment their team for the SuperBowl (not knowing if they win it this year or not) and go with another RB as LT's backup? Rather than keeping him on the bench next year (in case LT breaks down) and get nothing in return?... Can we honestly say that if (and it's a very big if) LT goes down next year - the Chargers can't recover - with or without The Burner?
 
cstu said:
JayMan said:
Why wouldn't the Chargers deal him this offseason?

Either you give him a costly and lengthy extension (ala Betts) or you have to deal him this year - because you would lose him after the '07 season (even if you tender him and don't deal him) - and get nothing in return...

The extension seems unlikely to me - since the Chargers have other top "starting" options: Tomlinson / Rivers / Gates / Merriman / Phillips to pay...

I'm guessing that they tender him the highest (1st & 3rd) and deal him afterwards for a 2nd or something of that nature... He's a top talent - but another team won't sell the bank for him - since they know they can do that after the '07 season if they which to...
Click to expand...
LT and Gates have been paid, Rivers is under contract for 3 more years and they are still well under the salary cap to extend Merriman and others. I'd rather they keep him for one more year if they can't get a first for him - remember AJ isn't averse to letting a player go with nothing in return if he thinks it's best for the team.
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I agree with everything you have said. One question.How would letting Turner go for nothing be best for the team?

 
Garts said:
I think the Chargers will look at Turner as an expensive back-up if they keep him when they can go the cheaper route with RB Andrew Pinnock; who actually looked capable with his carries when MT was hurt.
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It wouldn't be Pinnock, IMO. It would be either Sproles or somebody they draft.The first & third tender is only something like $2.5M next year, which Turner is worth. So they'll definitely tender him and not mind keeping him for another year if the right trade offer doesn't come in.
 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Garts said:
I think the Chargers will look at Turner as an expensive back-up if they keep him when they can go the cheaper route with RB Andrew Pinnock; who actually looked capable with his carries when MT was hurt.
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It wouldn't be Pinnock, IMO. It would be either Sproles or somebody they draft.The first & third tender is only something like $2.5M next year, which Turner is worth. So they'll definitely tender him and not mind keeping him for another year if the right trade offer doesn't come in.
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MT,what would be the right trade offer?If the Jets dangled a first that was around 21/22, would that do it?
 
Yitbos69 said:
cstu said:
JayMan said:
Why wouldn't the Chargers deal him this offseason?

Either you give him a costly and lengthy extension (ala Betts) or you have to deal him this year - because you would lose him after the '07 season (even if you tender him and don't deal him) - and get nothing in return...

The extension seems unlikely to me - since the Chargers have other top "starting" options: Tomlinson / Rivers / Gates / Merriman / Phillips to pay...

I'm guessing that they tender him the highest (1st & 3rd) and deal him afterwards for a 2nd or something of that nature... He's a top talent - but another team won't sell the bank for him - since they know they can do that after the '07 season if they which to...
Click to expand...
LT and Gates have been paid, Rivers is under contract for 3 more years and they are still well under the salary cap to extend Merriman and others. I'd rather they keep him for one more year if they can't get a first for him - remember AJ isn't averse to letting a player go with nothing in return if he thinks it's best for the team.
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I agree with everything you have said. One question.How would letting Turner go for nothing be best for the team?
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Not asking me, but my perspective would be because they have an excellent backup for the 2007 season. A great insurance policy on the best RB in the league who will have a lot of touches this year.Drew Brees walked for nothing. Michael Turner certainly can too.

 
Yitbos69 said:
cstu said:
JayMan said:
Why wouldn't the Chargers deal him this offseason?

Either you give him a costly and lengthy extension (ala Betts) or you have to deal him this year - because you would lose him after the '07 season (even if you tender him and don't deal him) - and get nothing in return...

The extension seems unlikely to me - since the Chargers have other top "starting" options: Tomlinson / Rivers / Gates / Merriman / Phillips to pay...

I'm guessing that they tender him the highest (1st & 3rd) and deal him afterwards for a 2nd or something of that nature... He's a top talent - but another team won't sell the bank for him - since they know they can do that after the '07 season if they which to...
Click to expand...
LT and Gates have been paid, Rivers is under contract for 3 more years and they are still well under the salary cap to extend Merriman and others. I'd rather they keep him for one more year if they can't get a first for him - remember AJ isn't averse to letting a player go with nothing in return if he thinks it's best for the team.
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I agree with everything you have said. One question.How would letting Turner go for nothing be best for the team?
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they will get a compensation pick, possibly as high as a 3rd if he leaves via FA (like they will for Brees). Say the Chargers can only get a 2nd for him if they trade him but may get a 3rd as compensation it might be worth it insurance wise to have Turner as a backup for that year for the price of a "one round drop" in the draft.
 
cstu said:
I'd rather they keep him for one more year if they can't get a first for him - remember AJ isn't averse to letting a player go with nothing in return if he thinks it's best for the team.
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If Turner signs as a big-money starter somewhere else, the Chargers would probably get a compensatory third-rounder for him like they will for Brees.Like you, I'd rather keep Turner for a year and then let him go for a compensatory third than just trade him for a second this offseason.
 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Garts said:
I think the Chargers will look at Turner as an expensive back-up if they keep him when they can go the cheaper route with RB Andrew Pinnock; who actually looked capable with his carries when MT was hurt.
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It wouldn't be Pinnock, IMO. It would be either Sproles or somebody they draft.The first & third tender is only something like $2.5M next year, which Turner is worth. So they'll definitely tender him and not mind keeping him for another year if the right trade offer doesn't come in.
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I agree with the tender offer (that is pretty much straightforward in my opinion)... but (like I posted above):... don't you think it would be better for the Chargers to deal him for a 2nd rounder (or another player) in the offseason - to ciment their team for the SuperBowl (not knowing if they win it this year or not) and go with another RB as LT's backup? Rather than keeping him on the bench next year (in case LT breaks down) and get nothing in return?... I think we honestly say that if (and it's a very big if) LT goes down next year - the Chargers can't recover - with or without The Burner? - why would they keep him then and lose him at the end of the year and get nothing?I'm just asking - I obvisouly don't have access to the same information you have - I'm just trying to figure this one out from the outside...ETA --- Ok, just got the answer from the post(s) above... the compensation pick that I didn't think of... case closed...
 
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Banger said:
Yitbos69 said:
cstu said:
JayMan said:
Why wouldn't the Chargers deal him this offseason?

Either you give him a costly and lengthy extension (ala Betts) or you have to deal him this year - because you would lose him after the '07 season (even if you tender him and don't deal him) - and get nothing in return...

The extension seems unlikely to me - since the Chargers have other top "starting" options: Tomlinson / Rivers / Gates / Merriman / Phillips to pay...

I'm guessing that they tender him the highest (1st & 3rd) and deal him afterwards for a 2nd or something of that nature... He's a top talent - but another team won't sell the bank for him - since they know they can do that after the '07 season if they which to...
Click to expand...
LT and Gates have been paid, Rivers is under contract for 3 more years and they are still well under the salary cap to extend Merriman and others. I'd rather they keep him for one more year if they can't get a first for him - remember AJ isn't averse to letting a player go with nothing in return if he thinks it's best for the team.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything you have said. One question.How would letting Turner go for nothing be best for the team?
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they will get a compensation pick, possibly as high as a 3rd if he leaves via FA (like they will for Brees). Say the Chargers can only get a 2nd for him if they trade him but may get a 3rd as compensation it might be worth it insurance wise to have Turner as a backup for that year for the price of a "one round drop" in the draft.
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Good to know...But don't you think that a team like the Jets would offer their 1st round pick for him? It's not like he will command the kind of money SA or Edge would have. Would SD pass on a 1st rounder for Turner?
 
Yitbos69 said:
Banger said:
Yitbos69 said:
cstu said:
JayMan said:
Why wouldn't the Chargers deal him this offseason?

Either you give him a costly and lengthy extension (ala Betts) or you have to deal him this year - because you would lose him after the '07 season (even if you tender him and don't deal him) - and get nothing in return...

The extension seems unlikely to me - since the Chargers have other top "starting" options: Tomlinson / Rivers / Gates / Merriman / Phillips to pay...

I'm guessing that they tender him the highest (1st & 3rd) and deal him afterwards for a 2nd or something of that nature... He's a top talent - but another team won't sell the bank for him - since they know they can do that after the '07 season if they which to...
Click to expand...
LT and Gates have been paid, Rivers is under contract for 3 more years and they are still well under the salary cap to extend Merriman and others. I'd rather they keep him for one more year if they can't get a first for him - remember AJ isn't averse to letting a player go with nothing in return if he thinks it's best for the team.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything you have said. One question.How would letting Turner go for nothing be best for the team?
Click to expand...
they will get a compensation pick, possibly as high as a 3rd if he leaves via FA (like they will for Brees). Say the Chargers can only get a 2nd for him if they trade him but may get a 3rd as compensation it might be worth it insurance wise to have Turner as a backup for that year for the price of a "one round drop" in the draft.
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Good to know...But don't you think that a team like the Jets would offer their 1st round pick for him? It's not like he will command the kind of money SA or Edge would have. Would SD pass on a 1st rounder for Turner?
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This is just a guess but I'd imagine a 1st rounder would do it. He wouldn't command the money, he has less mileage but also less of a track record. Both those guys (SA/Edge) were all-pro's for years and Turner has had some nice runs under his belt. The Jets have two seconds so they may be willing to do something or a 2nd and player. This is just conjecture though and covered pretty thoroughly in the 7-8 page Turner thread.

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
Garts said:
I think the Chargers will look at Turner as an expensive back-up if they keep him when they can go the cheaper route with RB Andrew Pinnock; who actually looked capable with his carries when MT was hurt.
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It wouldn't be Pinnock, IMO. It would be either Sproles or somebody they draft.The first & third tender is only something like $2.5M next year, which Turner is worth. So they'll definitely tender him and not mind keeping him for another year if the right trade offer doesn't come in.
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MT,what would be the right trade offer?If the Jets dangled a first that was around 21/22, would that do it?
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I think that would do it.
 
Sigmund Bloom said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
Garts said:
I think the Chargers will look at Turner as an expensive back-up if they keep him when they can go the cheaper route with RB Andrew Pinnock; who actually looked capable with his carries when MT was hurt.
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It wouldn't be Pinnock, IMO. It would be either Sproles or somebody they draft.The first & third tender is only something like $2.5M next year, which Turner is worth. So they'll definitely tender him and not mind keeping him for another year if the right trade offer doesn't come in.
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MT,what would be the right trade offer?If the Jets dangled a first that was around 21/22, would that do it?
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I think that's an interesting question...at some point whatever the Jets pick turns out to be plus a low 3rd must look looks relatively inexpensive to the Jets for Turner especially if they end up winning a game in the playoffs.
 
This is just a guess but I'd imagine a 1st rounder would do it. He wouldn't command the money, he has less mileage but also less of a track record. Both those guys (SA/Edge) were all-pro's for years and Turner has had some nice runs under his belt.

The Jets have two seconds so they may be willing to do something or a 2nd and player. This is just conjecture though and covered pretty thoroughly in the 7-8 page Turner thread.

I have been in the Turner thread and it has been covered....but it all comes back to what his value is dynasty or other wise.

If and when Turner goes somewhere else and where that place might be.

I am a Turner owner and I hope that he gets out of SD.....I am sure that most SD fans don't want to see him go.

Looking forward to how this will play out over the next few months

 
Not that it really matters, but I thought once he became a RFA and SD tendered, he could sign an offer sheet with any team and then SD would have the right to match that offer. So concievably he could go and sign a poison pill contract with Denver and then they'd give up their 1st and 3rd and there wouldn't be much SD could do about it.

EDIT: The Broncos also have an extra 3rd this year.

 
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Sigmund Bloom said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
Garts said:
I think the Chargers will look at Turner as an expensive back-up if they keep him when they can go the cheaper route with RB Andrew Pinnock; who actually looked capable with his carries when MT was hurt.
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It wouldn't be Pinnock, IMO. It would be either Sproles or somebody they draft.The first & third tender is only something like $2.5M next year, which Turner is worth. So they'll definitely tender him and not mind keeping him for another year if the right trade offer doesn't come in.
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MT,what would be the right trade offer?If the Jets dangled a first that was around 21/22, would that do it?
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obviously?
 
Sammy3469 said:
Not that it really matters, but I thought once he became a RFA and SD tendered, he could sign an offer sheet with any team and then SD would have the right to match that offer. So concievably he could go and sign a poison pill contract with Denver and then they'd give up their 1st and 3rd and there wouldn't be much SD could do about it.
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Yes, if another team is willing to give up a first and third, there's nothing the Chargers can do about it. The "right to match" is useless. But if another team is willing to give up a first and third, I don't think the Chargers would mind.
 
any instances in recent history where team coughed up a first & a third for any position...

how about a first for a RB...

i think walker cost a first in 06, & moss a first in 05, but a RB doesn't come immediately to mind...

 
Walker cost a 2nd. It was near the top of the 2nd, but it was not a 1st.

ETA: And of course, Deion Branch for a 1st.

But no RB's come to mind.

 
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Bob_Magaw said:
any instances in recent history where team coughed up a first & a third for any position...how about a first for a RB...i think walker cost a first in 06, & moss a first in 05, but a RB doesn't come immediately to mind...
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No, but it may end up being a choice between Lynch (if he even drops that far) v. Turner and a 3rd. If put like that I don't think it's that absurd to think that the Jets or Denver decide he's better than Lynch and end up giving up a 1st.
 
i do think from SDs perspective, it has to be factored in that they are a team with legit super bowl aspirations in 07 (they may win this year, & i think return almost everybody important... not sure if donnie edwards will be back... i think unlikely, though)...

IF he is viewed as insurance at critically important position if LT should go down, that is worth a lot... especially given clarification that they may get as high as third afterwards (though i think that would come a year later)...

as to other teams, a team with a bad record & therfore high first rounder would almost certainly find cost too high... those kind of teams would be less likely to be one piece away from playoff run, & therefore be more likely to wait until turner moves on & they can get him without parting with a pick...

ladell betts was used as comparison above... i was surprised by that move & think it was a mistake, but regardless of that, i think the burner is more highly thought of around the league... i would be shocked if he re-ups for a few more years rather than test the market (but i was surprised by betts... i'd be far more surprised here)...

why i like him to emerge as starter elsewhere if he clears that "hurdle" of uncertainty... if he is still on roster through next season, virtually no chance of SD slapping franchise tag on him... that would represent top 5 money at one of highest paid positions, & with LT already on the payroll, i just don't see that happening... actually, i don't know if anybody views that is realistic scenario, so that is probably strawman concern...

* i had thread similar to this before... i was reminded of cases where galloway & keyshawn changed hands for TWO first rounders (?)... i think DT sean gilbert fetched two firsts, & that didn't work out too well... going way back, herschell walker became a case study in how to get ripped off, & probably discouraged those kinds of massive trades going forward... eric dickerson was also part of big trade between rams & colts, but i forget particulars...

 
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Bob_Magaw said:
i do think from SDs perspective, it has to be factored in that they are a team with legit super bowl aspirations in 07 (they may win this year, & i think return almost everybody important... not sure if donnie edwards will be back... i think unlikely, though)...IF he is viewed as insurance at critically important position if LT should go down, that is worth a lot... especially given clarification that they may get as high as third afterwards (though i think that would come a year later)...as to other teams, a team with a bad record & therfore high first rounder would almost certainly find cost too high... those kind of teams would be less likely to be one piece away from playoff run, & therefore be more likely to wait until turner moves on & they can get him without parting with a pick...ladell betts was used as comparison above... i was surprised by that move & think it was a mistake, but regardless of that, i think the burner is more highly thought of around the league... i would be shocked if he re-ups for a few more years rather than test the market (but i was surprised by betts... i'd be far more surprised here)...why i like him to emerge as starter elsewhere if he clears that "hurdle" of uncertainty... if he is still on roster through next season, virtually no chance of SD slapping franchise tag on him... that would represent top 5 money at one of highest paid positions, & with LT already on the payroll, i just don't see that happening...
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Re:Edwards, he's gone, they resigned Wilhelm yesterday to a 5 year deal. The Chargers are in a good position, they get a top backup for decent money, they get decent compensation if he leaves via FA or they could deal him sooner if the right deal comes along. I could definitely see them pulling a Brees here and drafting a RB in the 4th/5th this year with the plan that he fills Turner shoes next year.
 
From all the posts and the related threads... I think that we can list the possible scenarios:

1. The Chargers sign Turner to a multi-year extension;

2. The Chargers tender him the 1st & 3rd (highest) - around 2.5M$;

3. The Chargers tender him another (for example: 1st) - under 2.5M$;

4. The Chargers franchise/transition Turner - top5 money for RBs.

Apart from scenario 1. all these would mean that the Chargers get a 3rd round conditional pick at the end of the '07 season - when Turner becomes an UFA.

From these, under scenarios 2. and 3., we can see that another team might still poison pill Turner and the Chargers only have First right of Refusal - which essentially means that scenario 3. is inplausible since Turner is worth that kind of money. It would mean that another team would like to depart their 1st and 3rd round pick to get Turner as a RFA this year.

Scenarios 1. and 4. are very unlikely also... I don't see Turner wanting to sign a long-term deal (ala Betts) when he can test the market at the end of next season... and I don't see the Chargers putting the franchise tag on Turner since it would mean an astonishing amount of money devoted to a backup player...

Finally, the Chargers might still trade Turner in the offseason - especially under scenario 2. - since they could sit on the best offer on draft day... if no deal is done, they pay Turner 2.5M$ next year and get a third round pick compensation for him after '07 (he's provinding insurance for a SuperBowl push)... else, if someone is willing to give their late 1st rounder (especially if Lynch is gone - we know Peterson will be gone) on draft day - they could pull the trigger...

Did I miss anything?

 
Bob_Magaw said:
if a dynasty draft were held TODAY... would he be a top 10-15-20-25 RB?
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I think someone would take him with their second RB pick, not their first. So (assuming 12 teams) that would put him between RB13 and RB24. Then they'd try to pick up a third RB to function as their RB2 for next year should Turner stay in San Diego one more year. Where he'll fall between RB13 and RB24 will depend on the owners. Some dynasty owners start off trying to win now and some start aiming immediately at the future. Someone aiming at the future would grab him sooner than someone trying to win now.That doesn't pin him down as specifically as "between RB10 and RB15", but it's the way dynasty drafts happen.
 
bu-ump.

in a new dynasty draft right now. turner just went at 5.03 in a 12 team league 51st pick overall, and he was at RB25.

just FWIW.

 
Bob_Magaw said:
any instances in recent history where team coughed up a first & a third for any position...how about a first for a RB...i think walker cost a first in 06, & moss a first in 05, but a RB doesn't come immediately to mind...
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This is not very recent. However the Vikings did give up 3 1st round picks plus several 2nd and 3rd round picks over 3 years plus a couple depth players for Hershel Walker. :blackdot:
 
Just seems to me that, if your organization needs a RB and your organization rates M. Turner equal to or greater then say a M. Lynch, why wouldn't you be willing to trade a first to aquire Turner. For example, say the Jets decide they need a RB. I doubt Lynch makes it to them at pick #25. At that point, if the Jets as an organization feel Turner is better then say a M. Bush (#3 ranked RB in the draft) and maybe even equal to or greater then a Lynch, why wouldn't they pay the Chargers the 1st round compensation to sign him? Turner is going to require some cash as would any first round RB. The cash value would be very similar. If the Jets say Turner is as good as Lynch, it would cost the Jets pick #25 plus some more picks to move up in the top 15 to take Lynch. Smart move would be to just give up the first (to the Chargers) as compensation for signing Turner as a restricted free agent. I guess it just makes sense as an organization to sign Turner, if (a) your biggest need is a RB and (b) as an organization you rank Turner equal to or greater then Lynch. I would even think it would cost the Jets pick #25 and a 3rd to move into the top ten. So even if the Chargers tender Turner with a 1st and 3rd compensation, it still might make some sense.

 
grind said:
Just seems to me that, if your organization needs a RB and your organization rates M. Turner equal to or greater then say a M. Lynch, why wouldn't you be willing to trade a first to aquire Turner. For example, say the Jets decide they need a RB. I doubt Lynch makes it to them at pick #25. At that point, if the Jets as an organization feel Turner is better then say a M. Bush (#3 ranked RB in the draft) and maybe even equal to or greater then a Lynch, why wouldn't they pay the Chargers the 1st round compensation to sign him? Turner is going to require some cash as would any first round RB. The cash value would be very similar. If the Jets say Turner is as good as Lynch, it would cost the Jets pick #25 plus some more picks to move up in the top 15 to take Lynch. Smart move would be to just give up the first (to the Chargers) as compensation for signing Turner as a restricted free agent. I guess it just makes sense as an organization to sign Turner, if (a) your biggest need is a RB and (b) as an organization you rank Turner equal to or greater then Lynch. I would even think it would cost the Jets pick #25 and a 3rd to move into the top ten. So even if the Chargers tender Turner with a 1st and 3rd compensation, it still might make some sense.
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:goodposting: This is the way I see it......But I think that a team(Jets,Giants) could get Turner for their 1st round pick and would not have to give their 3rd rounder. From the comments that AJ has made it seems that he wants to get some value for Turner.
 
Yitbos69 said:
grind said:
Just seems to me that, if your organization needs a RB and your organization rates M. Turner equal to or greater then say a M. Lynch, why wouldn't you be willing to trade a first to aquire Turner. For example, say the Jets decide they need a RB. I doubt Lynch makes it to them at pick #25. At that point, if the Jets as an organization feel Turner is better then say a M. Bush (#3 ranked RB in the draft) and maybe even equal to or greater then a Lynch, why wouldn't they pay the Chargers the 1st round compensation to sign him? Turner is going to require some cash as would any first round RB. The cash value would be very similar. If the Jets say Turner is as good as Lynch, it would cost the Jets pick #25 plus some more picks to move up in the top 15 to take Lynch. Smart move would be to just give up the first (to the Chargers) as compensation for signing Turner as a restricted free agent. I guess it just makes sense as an organization to sign Turner, if (a) your biggest need is a RB and (b) as an organization you rank Turner equal to or greater then Lynch. I would even think it would cost the Jets pick #25 and a 3rd to move into the top ten. So even if the Chargers tender Turner with a 1st and 3rd compensation, it still might make some sense.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: This is the way I see it......But I think that a team(Jets,Giants) could get Turner for their 1st round pick and would not have to give their 3rd rounder. From the comments that AJ has made it seems that he wants to get some value for Turner.
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In the end, I think the Jets get him for one of their seconds. I think the Chargers put a 1st round tender on him to see if anyone bites. When the dust settles, the Jets offer the Chargers one of their 2nd round picks and the deal gets done.
 
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