wannabee
Footballguy
This is a look at the Jacksonville offense in terms of balance, and the effects of which QB is in the game. During this part of the early offseason, I try to make a list of which players I want to target during the offseason. I think many fantasy owners do this either writing the names down with thoughts of offers or even making mental notes. The Jaguars have some young offensive players that are will be on these lists. Maurice Drew had a great year. Fred Taylor had a good, underrated year. Matt Jones is an up-and-coming WR. Marcedes Lewis is a young TE that many will seek. So, I isolated some numbers to see what were the effects on the offense, and play calling and production, with the different QBs starting. My initial thesis was that the two QBs (Leftwich and Garrard) had different strengths and weaknesses and the Jaguars fit the offense around the talents of the QB.
In 2006, there were 15 games which one QB of the three played the entire game and only one where more than one QB was utilized, week 17 (16th game).
Byron Leftwich started and played the first 6 games of the season, even through an injury. Through the first 5 games of the season, Leftwich was QB7 in points per game using FBG scoring. Leftwich, in week game 6, was not the same. I will forgive this game since he was questionable with the injury for which he was eventually put on IR. But, that game was very poor for him. Through 6 games, Leftwich was QB11 in points per game with an average of 16.20, even with the poor game due to injury.
David Garrard started in game 7 and played every minute until being pulled in week 17 for Quinn Gray. Garrard, during this stretch, was QB33 with a points per game average of 13.01.Garrard almost hit his average in week 17 with 11.5 points, so I will consider week 17 in the average.
Gray came into the week 17 game versus Kansas City and played very well. He scored 22.9 points in just part of the game.
Next, let’s look how the RBs produced given a certain QB. Please consider that these are raw numbers and do not take into account the opponent, injury, or even how Maurice Drew saw little action the first two weeks of the season as a RB. Also, Fred Taylor missed a game, affecting the touches per game average a little.
Through 6 games (the games that Leftwich started) here is how Drew and Taylor fared:
Taylor was RB19 with an average of 20 touches a game and averaged 11.63 points per game. Taylor finished the season at RB20 with a points per game average of 11.65 and an average of 16.9 touches per game.
Drew was RB22 with an average of 9.5 touches per game and averaged 10.60 points per game. Drew finished the season as RB8 with an average points per game of 14.23 and average of 13.25 touches per game (not including returns on touch average).
What does this mean? Under Leftwich, the Jags threw the ball more than 30 times per game and the RBs averaged 29.50 touches per game. Granted, some of Leftwich’s passes are included in the RB touches, but the offense was balanced. During these six games, the Jags were 3-3.
What happened after Leftwich was injured and Garrard took over? What did it mean to the offensive balance and the production of the RBs? After the Leftwich injury, Garrard and Gray averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game. And, the RBs averaged almost 7 touches more per game. But, Drew received the biggest benefit. Taylor did more with fewer touches per game and Drew proved very effective with more touches.
To put this in perspective, the Jags as a team (for the season) were 9th in the NFL in scoring, 3rd in rush attempts, 3rd in rush yards, and 2nd in rush TDs. The pass offense was 29th in attempts. Consequently, the number of pass TDs was six fewer than rush TDs (23-17). To contrast the difference in the Jag offense with the different QBs, the Jags (on the season) had 446 pass attempts while the NFL average (Bengals) had 523 pass attempts. The average was 33 pass attempts a game. So the Jags, under Leftwich, threw 2.5 attempts less than the average, but under Garrard (and Gray), the Jags threw more than 6 fewer passes.
The Jag record was .500 using both Leftwich and Garrard. The big winners of the QB switch from Leftwich to Garrard were the RBs, and Drew in particular. The big losers were the WRs and TEs. The biggest WR loser was Reggie Williams. He was averaging 7.2 targets per game under Leftwich and only 4.9 under Garrard/Gray. Also, just as in 2005, Garrard targeted Wilford much more than Leftwich.
What if 2006 was an outlier? Well, the two top rushers for the Jaguars in 2005 were Greg Jones and Fred Taylor. Both missed a few games. But, the touches per game average for the two combined was a little over 30. Also, Leftwich averaged 27 pass attempts per game in 2005 while Garrard averaged 16 pass attempts per game and 5 rush attempts per game. During both seasons, the Jaguars have passed more with Leftwich at the helm and run more with Garrard.
What does this all mean? All of these statistics! How do they help me going forward? The Jaguars state that there will be an open competition between the three QBs. This is very important as we try to assess the value of the Jaguar skill positions. Many of us own Jaguar RBs or WRs. I see this information as valuable as we get into the offseason and see whom the frontrunner for the position is. If you have Jag RBs or TE (Lewis), you should be rooting for Garrard to win the job. If you have one or more of the Jag WRs (especially Reggie Williams), you might be rooting for Leftwich or Gray to win the Jaguars QB competition. Further, I take this information to tell us that if Leftwich is the QB, and Taylor and Drew are back (and maybe Greg Jones, too), the number of RB touches will be smaller than in 2006, and thus limiting the value of these RBs. This is one situation I will be keeping an eye on.
I will also post this in the wannabee thread in ACF for any "your team" discussion.
In 2006, there were 15 games which one QB of the three played the entire game and only one where more than one QB was utilized, week 17 (16th game).
Byron Leftwich started and played the first 6 games of the season, even through an injury. Through the first 5 games of the season, Leftwich was QB7 in points per game using FBG scoring. Leftwich, in week game 6, was not the same. I will forgive this game since he was questionable with the injury for which he was eventually put on IR. But, that game was very poor for him. Through 6 games, Leftwich was QB11 in points per game with an average of 16.20, even with the poor game due to injury.
David Garrard started in game 7 and played every minute until being pulled in week 17 for Quinn Gray. Garrard, during this stretch, was QB33 with a points per game average of 13.01.Garrard almost hit his average in week 17 with 11.5 points, so I will consider week 17 in the average.
Gray came into the week 17 game versus Kansas City and played very well. He scored 22.9 points in just part of the game.
Next, let’s look how the RBs produced given a certain QB. Please consider that these are raw numbers and do not take into account the opponent, injury, or even how Maurice Drew saw little action the first two weeks of the season as a RB. Also, Fred Taylor missed a game, affecting the touches per game average a little.
Through 6 games (the games that Leftwich started) here is how Drew and Taylor fared:
Taylor was RB19 with an average of 20 touches a game and averaged 11.63 points per game. Taylor finished the season at RB20 with a points per game average of 11.65 and an average of 16.9 touches per game.
Drew was RB22 with an average of 9.5 touches per game and averaged 10.60 points per game. Drew finished the season as RB8 with an average points per game of 14.23 and average of 13.25 touches per game (not including returns on touch average).
What does this mean? Under Leftwich, the Jags threw the ball more than 30 times per game and the RBs averaged 29.50 touches per game. Granted, some of Leftwich’s passes are included in the RB touches, but the offense was balanced. During these six games, the Jags were 3-3.
What happened after Leftwich was injured and Garrard took over? What did it mean to the offensive balance and the production of the RBs? After the Leftwich injury, Garrard and Gray averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game. And, the RBs averaged almost 7 touches more per game. But, Drew received the biggest benefit. Taylor did more with fewer touches per game and Drew proved very effective with more touches.
To put this in perspective, the Jags as a team (for the season) were 9th in the NFL in scoring, 3rd in rush attempts, 3rd in rush yards, and 2nd in rush TDs. The pass offense was 29th in attempts. Consequently, the number of pass TDs was six fewer than rush TDs (23-17). To contrast the difference in the Jag offense with the different QBs, the Jags (on the season) had 446 pass attempts while the NFL average (Bengals) had 523 pass attempts. The average was 33 pass attempts a game. So the Jags, under Leftwich, threw 2.5 attempts less than the average, but under Garrard (and Gray), the Jags threw more than 6 fewer passes.
The Jag record was .500 using both Leftwich and Garrard. The big winners of the QB switch from Leftwich to Garrard were the RBs, and Drew in particular. The big losers were the WRs and TEs. The biggest WR loser was Reggie Williams. He was averaging 7.2 targets per game under Leftwich and only 4.9 under Garrard/Gray. Also, just as in 2005, Garrard targeted Wilford much more than Leftwich.
What if 2006 was an outlier? Well, the two top rushers for the Jaguars in 2005 were Greg Jones and Fred Taylor. Both missed a few games. But, the touches per game average for the two combined was a little over 30. Also, Leftwich averaged 27 pass attempts per game in 2005 while Garrard averaged 16 pass attempts per game and 5 rush attempts per game. During both seasons, the Jaguars have passed more with Leftwich at the helm and run more with Garrard.
What does this all mean? All of these statistics! How do they help me going forward? The Jaguars state that there will be an open competition between the three QBs. This is very important as we try to assess the value of the Jaguar skill positions. Many of us own Jaguar RBs or WRs. I see this information as valuable as we get into the offseason and see whom the frontrunner for the position is. If you have Jag RBs or TE (Lewis), you should be rooting for Garrard to win the job. If you have one or more of the Jag WRs (especially Reggie Williams), you might be rooting for Leftwich or Gray to win the Jaguars QB competition. Further, I take this information to tell us that if Leftwich is the QB, and Taylor and Drew are back (and maybe Greg Jones, too), the number of RB touches will be smaller than in 2006, and thus limiting the value of these RBs. This is one situation I will be keeping an eye on.
I will also post this in the wannabee thread in ACF for any "your team" discussion.
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To shed some light on the QB situation its now an open competition between the three QB's - Leftwich, Garrard and Grey. However, I see this comming down to a singular battle- whether to retain Garrard and stick to the power running game or balance the offense and stick with Lefty. Grey has shown that he can perform in the same mold as Garrard- with a better arm on medium to deep passes and also more poise in the pocket. He showed a good bit of toughness and grit in the KC game and also showed his mobility. But that brings up another interesting situation. OC Carl Smith was recently fired and while his playcalling was mind-boggling at times, he usually played up to the teams' strength. He utilized the arm of Leftwich with a more efficient and successful vertical passing game and used Garrard's mobility to create a speed based offense that relied heavily on options, short screens and a heavy dose of the RB tandem. These adjustments were literally made on a dime and showed what a good job of interior coaching (Mike Tice 
) to get these guys (the O-line in paticular) to adjust to a new scheme. That void is going to be replaced with a short list that virutally only includes 3 candidates1.) Mike Tice - Great job motivating the players this year. Never been an OC but knows a thing or two about gearing an offensive line to play to its strengths. His experience as a HC, however, is telling in that out of the 5 years as a HC, the minimum pass attempts on a season has been 510- a season when culpepper was both ineffecive as a starter and suffered a season-ending injury. However, the success that CPep enjoyed with Tice is also quite evident. Keep in mind that the Vikings boasted an impressive ground attack when Tice came on the scene and it was literally reduced to naught by 2005 due to injuries and questionable off-field behavior. However, fast, shifty players like Onterrio Smith and Michael Bennett were able to post appreciable numbers in his offense. No doubt that also bodes well for MJD and Taylor as well. Greg Jones may be the one taking the hit in a Tice ran system. 2.) Dennis Koetter- Ran a hell of a passing offense at ASU for the past few years. Utilized talent at the tight-end slots (Heap and Zach Miller) as well as tall, jump-ball recievers such as Derek Hagan. Since the Jaguars have immense talent at these positions, and a QB in Leftwich who can get them the ball, expect this to be a glove fit. Jaguars fans have been clamoring for a long time to utlize the past 3 first round picks of WR,WR,TE and this would be the perfect situation to bring Koetter in. Jaguars would have to make a commitment to the pass, however, to fully be successful in Koetter's system and that may temper expectations for the Jags RBBC. Especially Greg Jones and Fred Taylor. Recieving out of the backfield is a must.3.) Mike Shula (wildcard)- Really dont know too much about him but seemed pretty ineffective as an OCKeep an eye out on this situation.
) to get these guys (the O-line in paticular) to adjust to a new scheme. That void is going to be replaced with a short list that virutally only includes 3 candidates1.) Mike Tice - Great job motivating the players this year. Never been an OC but knows a thing or two about gearing an offensive line to play to its strengths. His experience as a HC, however, is telling in that out of the 5 years as a HC, the minimum pass attempts on a season has been 510- a season when culpepper was both ineffecive as a starter and suffered a season-ending injury. However, the success that CPep enjoyed with Tice is also quite evident. Keep in mind that the Vikings boasted an impressive ground attack when Tice came on the scene and it was literally reduced to naught by 2005 due to injuries and questionable off-field behavior. However, fast, shifty players like Onterrio Smith and Michael Bennett were able to post appreciable numbers in his offense. No doubt that also bodes well for MJD and Taylor as well. Greg Jones may be the one taking the hit in a Tice ran system. 2.) Dennis Koetter- Ran a hell of a passing offense at ASU for the past few years. Utilized talent at the tight-end slots (Heap and Zach Miller) as well as tall, jump-ball recievers such as Derek Hagan. Since the Jaguars have immense talent at these positions, and a QB in Leftwich who can get them the ball, expect this to be a glove fit. Jaguars fans have been clamoring for a long time to utlize the past 3 first round picks of WR,WR,TE and this would be the perfect situation to bring Koetter in. Jaguars would have to make a commitment to the pass, however, to fully be successful in Koetter's system and that may temper expectations for the Jags RBBC. Especially Greg Jones and Fred Taylor. Recieving out of the backfield is a must.3.) Mike Shula (wildcard)- Really dont know too much about him but seemed pretty ineffective as an OCKeep an eye out on this situation.
To shed some light on the QB situation its now an open competition between the three QB's - Leftwich, Garrard and Grey. However, I see this comming down to a singular battle- whether to retain Garrard and stick to the power running game or balance the offense and stick with Lefty. Grey has shown that he can perform in the same mold as Garrard- with a better arm on medium to deep passes and also more poise in the pocket. He showed a good bit of toughness and grit in the KC game and also showed his mobility.
) to get these guys (the O-line in paticular) to adjust to a new scheme. That void is going to be replaced with a short list that virutally only includes 3 candidates
