The Initial Bloom 100 (1 Viewer)

The dust has finally settled in my head and I have watched a good cross section of the draft class in person over the last three weeks. I really debated a lot of these rankings and as you all know, the combine and pro days factor in, and most importantly, the draft. The rankings on May 1 will be very different than these, keep that in mind. If I rebuilt these rankings from scratch right now, they would probably be different. Im sure once this is posted I'll read the rankings and start re-debating them from a different point of view, and some of you will bring some persuasive arguments as to why I am wrong about someone. I reserve the right to change these at any moment. This is all still very fluid in my mind, but this is a snapshot of where I am at right now, and meant to only be a very very general guide at this early stage. I did not have a chance to thoroughly proofread this, so forgive any spelling, position, team errors. I'll be working on the commentary for these during the rest of the week. Remember that this reflects both my player evaluation and general comparative evaluation of position value in full IDP leagues. These do not reflect a particular scoring system, they are more generic, but the commentary will address some values in specific systems.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - AD has the goods to be a top 10 RB, and that's gold, even in leagues that highly value WRs with options like PPR and start 3. I have been captivated by him from day one and I'm convinced he'll be a special player. Injuries are the only real drawback on his resume.
Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech - The Can't Miss player of the draft. Larry Fitzgerald v2.0. His initial dynasty value may actually exceed AD's, it's just that AD's ceiling is a lot higher.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, California - A notch below the top 2 both in terms of upside and talent. That's not a knock on Lynch - Calvin and AD would be premier prospects in any draft. The gap between Lynch and AD is closed some in PPR leagues. I love that Lynch had one of his best games last year on two bum ankles (Washington).
JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU - He's ahead of the WRs because I'm not sure there's a future top 15 WR in the bunch. Russell has the strength, size, mobility, and arm to be a game breaker in the mold of Culpepper or Roethlisberger, but better.
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC - I really like Jarrett's chances of hitting, and I'm this close to seeing him possibly have the career path of another USC WR, Keyshawn Johnson. He could well establish himself as the #4 before the draft. Whether I would take Russell or Jarrett at 4 would depend on my roster at this point, they're that close.
Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina - I see the makings of a WR1 in Rice, a lot of the same qualities as Calvin Johnson - particularly superhuman body control. He's inferior to Johnson in every category, but they are the same kind of WR. I tend to put a higher value on upside than most dynasty owners, so that could explain my disagreement with the majority of people on this ranking.
Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee - I really dont have anything bad to say about Meachem. He could rise in the right situation. He just does not quite have the one outstanding attribute to separate himself the way Jarrett and Rice do. I am probably missing the forest for the trees in that analysis, because Meachem seems to have a better overall package of skills than Rice, but I am somewhat swayed by transcendental play.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU - I almost put Bowe 6th, but I felt I was becoming too influenced by the Senior Bowl practices. Bowe was dazzling in practice, and just moved with a quickness and swiftness that a guy with his thick build should not be able to move. I reserve the right to re-shuffle this entire group of four WRs.
Ted Ginn Jr, WR, tOSU - Ginn falls to 9th because he's the only WR in this group that I can find a reason to be truly skeptical about. He hasn't demonstrated that he can handle the physical side of being an NFL WR. CBs played 10 yards off the line of scrimmage against him out of respect, but me thinks he'll face a lot more press coverage in the pros. Im not saying he cant bang, I'm just saying I haven't seen enough of it to believe yet. If he can, he'll be a steal at 9.
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - I just see too much of Eli in Quinn. He should put up nice numbers (Eli does), but are you happy if Eli is the starting QB on your dynasty team right now? Can you trade him for much? Probably not. Quinn has shown the ability to be a prolific passer, but he also does not rise to the occasion against tough defenses, and they only get tougher from here. Still, not a bad first round value pick if you are looking to rebuild at QB.
Johnnie Lee Higgins, WR, UTEP
Antonio Pittman, RB, tOSU
Michael Bush, RB, Louisville
Lorenzo Booker, RB, Florida St
Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn
Greg Olsen, TE, Miami-FL
Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
Tony Hunt, RB, PSU
Zach Miller, TE, Arizona St
Anthony Gonzalez, WR, tOSU
Dwayne Wright, RB, Fresno St
Brandon Jackson, RB, Nebraska
Troy Smith, QB, tOSU
Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan St
Brandon Siler, LB, Florida
Paul Posluszny, LB, PSU
Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina
Jacoby Jones, WR, Lane College
Steve Smith, WR, USC
Craig Davis, WR, LSU
Brian Leonard, RB, Rutgers
H.B. Blades, LB, Pitt
Buster Davis, LB, Florida St
Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford
Kevin Kolb, QB, Houston
Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware
Jason Hill, WR, Washington St
Rhema McKnight, WR, Notre Dame
Thomas Clayton, RB, Kansas St
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Marshall
Jon Beason, LB, Miami-FL
Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St
LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Steve Breaston, WR, Michigan
Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami-FL
Maurice Price, WR, Charleston Southern
Paul Williams, WR, Fresno St
Joe Newton, TE, Oregon St
Darius Walker, RB, Notre Dame
DeShawn Wynn, RB, Florida
Isaiah Stanback, QB, Washington
Ryan Moore, WR, Miami-FL
Gary Russell, RB, Minnesota (former)
Michael Griffin, S, Texas
John Beck, QB, BYU
Dallas Baker, WR, Florida
Brandon Myles, WR, WVU
Ramonce Taylor, RB, Texas College
Courtney Taylor, WR, Auburn
Rufus Alexander, LB, Oklahoma
David Harris, LB, Michigan
Tyrone Moss, RB, Miami-FL
Josh Swogger, QB, Montana
Jeff Rowe, QB, Nevada
David Ball, WR, UNH
Kolby Smith, RB, Louisville
Selvin Young, RB, Texas
Kenneth Darby, RB, Alabam
James Jones, WR, SJSU
Laurent Robinson, WR, Illinois St
Jon Abbate, LB, Wake Forest
Anthony Waters, LB, Clemson
Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
Ronnie McGill, RB, UNC
Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue
Jeff Samardzija, WR, Notre Dame
Scott Chandler, TE, Iowa
Martrez Milner, TE, Georgia
Jordan Palmer, QB, UTEP
Matt Gutierrez, QB, Idaho State
Jeff Smith, QB, Georgetown (KY)
Arkee Whitlock, RB, SIU
Justise Hairston, RB, CCSU
Stewart Bradley, LB, Nebraska
Aaron Rouse, S, Virginia Tech
Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt
Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Sabby Piscitelli, S, Oregon St
Justin Durant, LB, Hampton
Eric Weddle, DB, Utah
Earl Everett, LB, Florida
Prescott Burgess, LB, Michigan
Justin Vincent, RB, LSU
Danny Ware, RB, Georgia
Chris Henry, RB, Arizona
Chansi Stuckey, WR, Clemson
Matt Trannon, WR, Michigan St

Thank you!

Thanks Bloom. I love the offseason!

100. Matt Trannon, WR, Michigan St

Does he win a "Mr. Irrelevant" award?

Thanks Bloom!!

SWEET

Jarrett is 5 and Rice is 6, would you consider the gap between them to be less or more sizable than the gap between Jarrett at 5 and Rusell at 4 and the gap between 6 and 7? (trying to gauge how much you like Rice)

Bloom I know your head must be hurting after this. Thanks for the list and keep up the good work.

Wow, Sidney Rice is really high on the list. I am actually a student at South Carolina, curious what you see in him to put him that high?

Desert_Power said:

Wow, Sidney Rice is really high on the list. I am actually a student at South Carolina, curious what you see in him to put him that high?

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Can make the impossible catches much like Calvin Johnson. Nearly supernatural body control at times.

Thanks Bloom!

Not too sure if this thread is for this, but if u had to rank Leinart's percieved trade value, would u say 1.3 (right ahead of Jamarcus)? What about Michael Turner? about the same?

Nice work as always Bloom.

31. :X

36.

I am hoping someone can fill in some background on Brandon Jackson and his injury history?

I saw on GBN that they have an "X" beside his name which indicates an injury risk. What is this risk with him? And how much does it effect peoples perspectives about Jackson as a pro prospect? What other concerns do people have with him?

I see Bloom has him at 22 and RB 9 right now. This is higher than what I have been seeing from other peoples rookie rankings on this board.

25. Brandon Siler

What has convinced you about him to rank him as LB2 ?

-Good job

Sigmund Bloom said:

4) JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU10) Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame

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I realize this is the never ending debate, but unless Russell ends up in a vastly superior passing offense compared to the one Quinn gets drafted into...I just can't see Russell putting up better fantasy numbers in the NFL. JaMarcus Russell = Byron Leftwich, good but not great.Russell has the superior arm but his limited mobility (in and out of the pocket) is really going to hinder his upside at the next level. Brady Quinn has his own questions to answer but he's been exposed to an NFL playbook at Notre Dame and has great pocket awareness. Of course the team they are drafted by is the 300 lb. gorilla in this equation, but all things being equal Quinn should be ranked 6 spots higher than Russell imo.

For all the love that Adam Carriker got in the senior bowl, he gets left out of the top 100?

broncofan13000 said:

Thanks Bloom! Not too sure if this thread is for this, but if u had to rank Leinart's percieved trade value, would u say 1.3 (right ahead of Jamarcus)? What about Michael Turner? about the same?

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Turner higher than Leinart. Leinart higher than Russell. Big cliff after the 1.03 rookie pick this year.

Biabreakable said:

I am hoping someone can fill in some background on Brandon Jackson and his injury history?I saw on GBN that they have an "X" beside his name which indicates an injury risk. What is this risk with him? And how much does it effect peoples perspectives about Jackson as a pro prospect? What other concerns do people have with him?I see Bloom has him at 22 and RB 9 right now. This is higher than what I have been seeing from other peoples rookie rankings on this board.

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Jackson has had multiple shoulder injuries that caused him to miss time in the offseason. The main concern is just that he hasn't proven himself as a feature back yet. The flashes are there. I'm not sure what to do with Wright and Jackson - situation will be huge. I like the talent, but could also see either falling to the 5th like Jerome Harrison last year.

mcintyre1 said:

For all the love that Adam Carriker got in the senior bowl, he gets left out of the top 100?

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He's a 3-4 defensive end. Much better NFL player than fantasy player.

lord_helmet said:

25. Brandon SilerWhat has convinced you about him to rank him as LB2 ?-Good job

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He's a true QB of the defense MLB with good size - looks like a perennial starter and prolific tackler with his range.

Ramblin Wreck said:

mcintyre1 said:

For all the love that Adam Carriker got in the senior bowl, he gets left out of the top 100?

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He's a 3-4 defensive end. Much better NFL player than fantasy player.

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Carriker will have 3-4 end stats. I don't have him in the my top 5 DEs. He might even have trouble cracking the top 10. This is a very deep DE class,

Thank you, Bloom. I love this time of year.

trader jake said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

4) JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU10) Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame

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I realize this is the never ending debate, but unless Russell ends up in a vastly superior passing offense compared to the one Quinn gets drafted into...I just can't see Russell putting up better fantasy numbers in the NFL. JaMarcus Russell = Byron Leftwich, good but not great.Russell has the superior arm but his limited mobility (in and out of the pocket) is really going to hinder his upside at the next level. Brady Quinn has his own questions to answer but he's been exposed to an NFL playbook at Notre Dame and has great pocket awareness. Of course the team they are drafted by is the 300 lb. gorilla in this equation, but all things being equal Quinn should be ranked 6 spots higher than Russell imo.

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Leftwich is a good floor for Russell. I do feel that Russell has a lot more mobility than Leftwich, and unlike Byron, JaMarcus doesn't have to enter a loping windup and stride to summon his arm strength. I also think he'll have modest stats on the ground including 4 or 5 TDs, and he's not going to be as injury prone as Leftwich. I could see Russell settling into the 6-10 range. Quinn definitely has an NFL resume and will be an adequate starter at worst, but he seemed to wilt against tougher defenses instead of going right into the teeth of the challenge. That bothers me. Im not even close to 100% settled on how I feel about Quinn. The raw materials are all there, but sometimes it feels like something important is missing.

Good stuff Sigmund. Thanks for all the hard work.

Couch Potato said:

100. Matt Trannon, WR, Michigan St

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That's so sweet, Sig. You shouldn't have.

Quick thoughts:

- My top three is exactly the same. I used to think the gap between Lynch and Peterson was close, but I've since decided that Peterson is easily the superior talent. He and Calvin Johnson are the two elite offensive prospects. Everyone else is a notch below.

- I like that you have so many WRs high. I wouldn't trade Meachem or Bowe for Pittman/Hunt/etc. My only gripe is that Rice might be a little overrated. I kind of wonder if he'll ever be more than a one trick pony in the NFL.

- I have to think some of those third tier WRs (Allison, Smith, Davis) are going to move up on draft day. It seems like there are always a handful of unheralded WR prospects going higher than anticipated. There has to be a Greg Jennings, Mark Bradley, Vincent Jackson, or Deion Branch in this bunch.

- Trent Edwards is a good sleeper. He probably would've been the best QB at the Senior Bowl if he had been able to compete.

Just wanted to chime in... thank you Sigmund... marvellous insight - as usual...

Great stuff Bloom.

thank you... if only you were a chick, i would send you chocolate next week

From Bloom's work...

By position

By teams with 3 or more players

This really is a massive undertaking. I remember trying to create updates after you signed on here and abandoned me on the blog a year ago. Huge chore and I join in the thanks.

Comments. I'm only grateful because this is a fix and I am an addict. This just isn't particularly meaningful until the draft when situations start clearing up. So observations and criticisms are equally in need of more information. Who cares?

At first glance I was surprised at the LB rankings. Big Beason fan here and Timmons potential should take him higher. I would rearrange the rankings from Siler to Beason, but probably more to the point is I would scrunch them closer together by dropping Brandon and Puz a little and raising Timmons and Beason. Something tells me Desmond Bishop is in my future.

I agree with Jeff on #36. I know we cannot keep someone under the radar, but he could be best in this sorry class. I'll probably just avoid the position. In fact, I would drop a couple TEs from this list and make room for Wolfe and the WR of your choice. I don't think I would have a TE in the top 40.

Tyrone Moss is probably in my future too.

Weddle and Stuckey are too low.

Helluvaneffort!

Some of the players I struggled with leaving out (remember, there's not much difference between 55-60 and 130-140):

Justin Rascati, QB, James Madison

Zac Taylor, QB, Nebraska

Chris Leak, QB, Florida

Jared Zabransky, QB, Boise St

Luke Getsy, QB, Akron

Tyler Palko, QB, Pitt

Germaine Race, RB, Pittsburg St

Garrett Wolfe, RB, NIU

Nate Ilaoa, RB, Hawaii

Jon Cornish, RB, Kansas

Jason Snelling, RB, Virginia

Paul Mosley, RB, Baylor

Jackie Battle, RB, Houston

David Clowney, WR, Va Tech

Syvelle Newton, WR, South Car

Joel Filani, WR, Texas Tech

Jarrett Hicks, WR, Texas Tech

Jerard Rabb, WR, Boise St

Mike Walker, WR, UCF

Ryne Robinson, WR, Miami OH

Jordan Kent, WR, Oregon

James Finley, WR, Oregon

Junior Taylor, WR, UCLA

Kendrick Dozier, QB/WR, Langston

Matt Spaeth, TE, Minnesota

Kevin Boss, TE, Western Oregon

Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame

Tim Crowder, DE, Texas

Quentin Moses, DE/OLB, Georgia

Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida

LaMarr Woodley, DE/OLB, Michigan

Brian Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri

Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida

Desmond Bishop, LB, Cal

KaMichael Hall, LB, Ga Tech

Taurean Charles, LB, Bethune-Cookman

Rory Johnson, LB, Mississippi

Sam Olajubutu, LB, Arkansas

Tim Shaw, LB, PSU

Quincy Black, LB, UNM

Stephen Nicholas, LB, USF

Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal

Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas

Leon Hall, CB, Michigan

Fred Bennett, CB, South Car

Tanard Jackson, CB/S, Syracuse

Daren Stone, S, Maine

Dashon Goldson, CB/S, Washington

Josh Gattis, S, Wake Forest

Kevin Payne, S, Louisiana-Monroe

JayMan said:

From Bloom's work...

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thanks jayman

Chaos Commish said:

At first glance I was surprised at the LB rankings. Big Beason fan here and Timmons potential should take him higher. I would rearrange the rankings from Siler to Beason, but probably more to the point is I would scrunch them closer together by dropping Brandon and Puz a little and raising Timmons and Beason. Something tells me Desmond Bishop is in my future.

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Continuing with this thought. I know Buster and Blades (great LB names) are ILBs and Beason and Timmons are OLBs, but if you weigh in the likelihood of winning starting jobs I think the two OLBs get bumps. There is significant risk the two ILBs don't play much, but very little risk of that for the OLBs. Make sense?

Chaos Commish said:

I would rearrange the rankings from Siler to Beason, but probably more to the point is I would scrunch them closer together by dropping Brandon and Puz a little and raising Timmons and Beason. Something tells me Desmond Bishop is in my future.

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At first I had it more like that, I have them approximately the same as prospects, although Siler is the one with the most momentum in my mind. Then I thought more about the kind of role each would play in their defense and decided to give more weight to the guys who will be in more running lanes and generally in on more plays. That being said, Beason and Timmons both have big play ability to make up for deflated tackle numbers.

This is one of the highest rankings I've seen for Brandon Jackson, whom I personally like a lot.

Why do you like him?

Sigmund Bloom said:

Some of the players I struggled with leaving out (remember, there's not much difference between 55-60 and 130-140):Zac Taylor, QB, NebraskaGarrett Wolfe, RB, NIUDavid Clowney, WR, Va TechSyvelle Newton, WR, South CarJoel Filani, WR, Texas TechJarrett Hicks, WR, Texas TechJerard Rabb, WR, Boise StMike Walker, WR, UCFRyne Robinson, WR, Miami OHJordan Kent, WR, OregonDesmond Bishop, LB, Cal

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I like Zac Taylor a lot more than my last set of rankings suggest.From a fantasy perspective Wolfe belongs in a conversation of 100 prospects. There is a very good chance his playing days are behind him though. After the Ohio State game, that would be shocking to me.You know I like Mike Walker and your list is a good example of why I said WR of your choice. Syvelle Newton gives me a warm fuzzy Isaiah Stanback doesn't. Isaiah's biggest fans won't admit it, but I think he has to make it at QB. Newton can convert.

Thanks Bloom.

Having watched Meacham a number of times this past year, I must say that I was not very impressed with him. Or I should say impressed enough for him to be rated THAT high...

Sinrman said:

Having watched Meacham a number of times this past year, I must say that I was not very impressed with him. Or I should say impressed enough for him to be rated THAT high...

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1300 yards, 11 TDs and 18 yards a catch in the SEC. He rocked last year. 4th in the nation in yards and ahead of any other elite WR in this draft while playing arguably the toughest competion.

LHUCKS said:

This is one of the highest rankings I've seen for Brandon Jackson, whom I'm personally like a lot. Why do you like him?

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quality burst, acceleration, efficient lateral movement, combines crisp cuts upfield with good vision (ZBS runner?) gets low pretty easily, runs hard (thru arm tackles)...Overall he just pops out as a determined, little wasted movement runner with a second gear. Bradshaw seems similar but less explosive. Pittman is similar, but more proven.

^ ^

no K?

Bloom: which players do you foresee making the most improvement from here until the draft, and which stand to lose ground?

Seems to me we might see Michael Bush push into the top 4.

Nicely done as always!

Reinforcement on why Bloom was a great addition to the FBG staff.

Thanks again Bloom!