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Bye Weeks (1 Viewer)

Jeff Pasquino

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
Ok, this will be (most likely) only of interest to those of you in Dynasty, deep Keeper, or Survivor Leagues.

The questions come up this time of year about Bye Weeks for the teams as the schedule is slated to come out soon (technically it was supposed to be out already).

So, in an effort to help my fellow FBG, I'm going to cast this out there and see what you all (or "yous" in Philly, or "y'all" for many :) ) think.

First off, here's what I did. I took the last 5 years of bye weeks and just looked for any patterns.

I'll list any observations I find, but I will state one that screamed out to me:



"Shared TV Markets amongst 2 teams in different conferences almost NEVER have the same Bye Weeks".

Huh?

Well, let's look at the data. I took 6 markets that could be said to have overlapping TV markets:



1. SF / Oak

2. NYJ / NYG

3. Philly / Baltimore

4. Indy / Chicago

5. Dallas / Houston

6. STL / KC

Now, breaking these down for the last 5 years - what are the odds that one of these pairs would share a bye?

Math time (feel free to skip):

Before last year and the Bye Week Peril of Weeks 6 and 7 with 6 teams off, the NFL had 8 weeks of 4 teams with byes. That's just under 10% chance that any two teams would share a bye (3/31, or 9.7% to be accurate). So if you pick any two teams at random, there's about a 10% chance that they would "intersect" or share a bye.

Last year, with 6 teams off twice, that math went up to 11.5% (3/31 five weeks, 5/31 twice, or an avg. of 25/(31*7)).

So for all intents and purposes, the odds that any two teams in the last five years would share a bye, at random, is about 40-50%. (Again math - I think the correct answer to this is to figure out the odds that they won't share a bye = (100%-9.7%)^4 * (100%-11.5%) = 58.8%, so there's a 41.2% chance they share a bye).
Click to expand...
So, if I can find a case where they NEVER or ALMOST NEVER intersect, I can say that it is significant, since there should be a 41.2% chance that they share a bye at some point over the past 5 years.Here's my results:

Of the six shared TV markets listed above, ZERO shared a Bye. That's right. None. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

Now why would the NFL want to do this on purpose? Well, if your team is "off" in your TV market, you would want the adjacent team to be available to watch as a pseudo-home team. That's my theory and it does make sense for fans and for ratings.

So, is this finding significant? You decide. But of 6 pairs, based on that 41.2% chance, there's less than 1/2 a percent chance that none of thse share a bye. That means that if you picked 6 pairs of teams at random, 99.5% of the time you'll find that one of the pairs shares a bye. To me, that matters.

There's one TV market that I did look at which didn't "fit" the model, and that's Baltimore and Washington. Now, Baltimore is close to Philly as well, and that model fit, but to be fair I have to look at the two Maryland area teams. In 2005, for some reason, these two teams were both off Week 3. Now, 1 data point out of 35 doesn't entirely violate this, but for me, if I had to "guess", I would imagine that the six teams listed above will not share a bye week in 2007 and it is highly likely that the Ravens and the Redskins also won't share a bye.

Will I be right or wrong? Is this significant? Time will tell - and we'll know soon.

Let me know what you think.

ETA from an observant poster, komments:

Det/Cle - 7 years of data - never shared a bye. :lmao:

Cincy / Indy - Same deal. 0 for 7. :lmao:

Car / Atl - Same deal. 0 for 7. :lmao:
Click to expand...
 
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Nice! This could really inform how FF owners select certain backups -- if you have a stud from one of the pairs, grab a solid backup from the other and you stand an excellent chance of having the plugin as long as they stay on the same teams.

 
Jeff:

Any thoughts on division rivals that are geographically close with no one else really considered nearby?

I'm thinking mostly of the AFC/NFC North:

Minn/GB/Det - Chi has it's pair above

Clev/Cinn

 
Nice breakdown Jeff. I never looked too hard at the numbers but just believed it to be true. It's why I took the SF/Oakland combo in WSL 2. This makes a lot of sense.

 
Ben Hur said:
Dallas and Houston no longer are considered overlapping TV markets. The Houston game was rarely, if ever IIRC, played in Dallas on the networks last year.This was a change from 2005. And a welcome one.
Click to expand...
In fact, the Texans are not even shown in so-called "nuetral" areas in Texas, such as San Antonio and Austin. In terms of television market, Houston Texans are as closer the Houston Houstons than the Oilers-now Titians ever were.
 
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I do not think the TV markets for Baltimore and Philly overlap much at all. :sadbanana:

Baltimore and Washington, on the other hand, overlap immensely (and the fact you left it out, gives the appearance you selected your sample based on ones that gave the result you wanted :confused: ). Where I live, I get most network stations from both cities on my cable.

By the way, there was a reason both Baltimore and Washington had that week 3 bye in 2005. Paul Tagliabue wanted to make sure he kept getting good tickets to the majors from Tim Finchem (I realize it's only a partial article, but you get enough from what they provide)

 
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Mungo Burrows said:
I do not think the TV markets for Baltimore and Philly overlap much at all. :lmao:

Baltimore and Washington, on the other hand, overlap immensely (and the fact you left it out, gives the appearance you selected your sample based on ones that gave the result you wanted :lmao: ). Where I live, I get most network stations from both cities on my cable.

By the way, there was a reason both Baltimore and Washington had that week 3 bye in 2005. Paul Tagliabue wanted to make sure he kept getting good tickets to the majors from Tim Finchem (I realize it's only a partial article, but you get enough from what they provide)
Click to expand...
MB,Philly and Baltimore overlap in the York, PA area and in Delaware as a fan base. As for TV markets, this is an easy one for me as I'm an Eagles fan and way WAY back in time before I had DirecTV, I learned all too well about the blackout rules for NFL cities and the stations around them. Any station within 100 miles, IIRC, is blacked out if a home team is not a sellout 72 hours in advance of kickoff. The last time the Eagles were locally blacked out, the game was not available in all but the furthest points of Maryland (Salisbury, Eastern Shore). This means that Baltimore could not show the Eagles game on their TV stations. I'm going to assume that the opposite would be true, so this is the NFL's definition of "overlapping TV coverage".

I also specifically stated I included the Baltimore / Washington combo towards the end of the post. That was the one and only anomaly to the 6 (or 7) cases, and even if you include them as a data point the numbers still warrant that the occurrence (1 out of a possible 35 times) is much less than the math says that it should occur.

Feel free to check me on the math, but I think that even with just one occurrence this could be a pretty good "rule of thumb" going forward.

Your link (thanks) explains the anomaly, which even further strengthens the "neighboring TV markets" argument. If it makes you feel better (and I agree with this pairing) I'd drop the Philly / Baltimore duo and go with the Wash / Bal combo. I do know that Philly and Baltimore play in the pre-season every year (I'm not certain if all 6 combos do, I think it is possible) - so that may also give another clue or insight.

Like I said though, time will tell. I'm quite curious to see if any of these 6 or 7 pairings share a bye when the schedule comes out.

 
I think advertising dollars for the local markets might be one possible reason. Can you imagine having a week, in New York, where neither the Jets or Giants play? I just would see less local viewership if neither team is playing.

 
coolnerd said:
Ben Hur said:
Dallas and Houston no longer are considered overlapping TV markets. The Houston game was rarely, if ever IIRC, played in Dallas on the networks last year.This was a change from 2005. And a welcome one.
Click to expand...
In fact, the Texans are not even shown in so-called "nuetral" areas in Texas, such as San Antonio and Austin. In terms of television market, Houston Texans are as closer the Houston Houstons than the Oilers-now Titians ever were.
Click to expand...
Because really, the only reason you'd want to watch a Texans game over another team is if your fantasy running back was playing them that week.
 
Pots said:
coolnerd said:
Ben Hur said:
Dallas and Houston no longer are considered overlapping TV markets. The Houston game was rarely, if ever IIRC, played in Dallas on the networks last year.This was a change from 2005. And a welcome one.
Click to expand...
In fact, the Texans are not even shown in so-called "nuetral" areas in Texas, such as San Antonio and Austin. In terms of television market, Houston Texans are as closer the Houston Houstons than the Oilers-now Titians ever were.
Click to expand...
Because really, the only reason you'd want to watch a Texans game over another team is if your fantasy running back was playing them that week.
Click to expand...
or if you are an ex-season ticket holder who moved away from the Houston area for career reasons. :no:
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
Well, let's look at the data. I took 6 markets that could be said to have overlapping TV markets:



1. SF (6) / Oak (5)

2. NYJ (10) / NYG (9)

3. Philly (5) / Baltimore (8)

4. Indy (6) / Chicago (9)

5. Dallas (8) / Houston (10)

6. STL (9) / KC (8)

Also:

7. Baltimore (8) / Washington (7)
Click to expand...
100% :confused:
 
Ben Hur said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
Well, let's look at the data. I took 6 markets that could be said to have overlapping TV markets:



1. SF (6) / Oak (5)

2. NYJ (10) / NYG (9)

3. Philly (5) / Baltimore (8)

4. Indy (6) / Chicago (9)

5. Dallas (8) / Houston (10)

6. STL (9) / KC (8)

Also:

7. Baltimore (8) / Washington (7)
Click to expand...
100% :wall:
Click to expand...
Now what were we supposed to do with this data yesterday?
Click to expand...
Some things are just stowed away for next year.....
 
Is this information useful from a fantasy standpoint?

The NFL never wants to be "shuutout" of a major market any week of the year, and scheduling two teams in the same market on bye in the same week means they lose four streams of revenue. Two TV streams and two stadium streams in one week is a big hit.

You will always hit 100% on this, Jeff - it is pure marketing and the NFL has mastered the art of marketing and maximizing dollars.

 
Marc Levin said:
Is this information useful from a fantasy standpoint?The NFL never wants to be "shuutout" of a major market any week of the year, and scheduling two teams in the same market on bye in the same week means they lose four streams of revenue. Two TV streams and two stadium streams in one week is a big hit.You will always hit 100% on this, Jeff - it is pure marketing and the NFL has mastered the art of marketing and maximizing dollars.
Click to expand...
Marc,I've never seen anyone try and do this, so I did.As for the utility, anyone playing in multi-year leagues would like to know if their player(s) would share byes. QBs, Ks, Ds, TEs - many carry but two of each and if the second man is mostly for bye week coverage, the last thing you want to get is someone on the same bye.Same thing for Survivor leagues - two of which draft before the schedule usually comes out (WSL rolling now in the Mock Drafts R Us forum, Pre-Draft Survivor (PDSL) League in March/April.It helps for trades, free agency, keepers, etc.As for it "always working", that'd be great - just never saw anyone else put it in this format. If there are rules for NFL schedulemakers, I've never seen them firsthand.
 
Nemesis said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
Anyone else think there might be one with a FL team?

Maybe Tampa and Jax?
Click to expand...
Yes, I was going to post that Orlando shares Tampa and Jax so I would suspect that the theory runs true.Can you run the numbers to substantiate?
Click to expand...
2002Tampa - (10)

Jax - (3)

Miami - (8)

2003

Tampa - (4)

Jax - (7)

Miami - (4)

2004

Tampa - (8)

Jax - (9)

Miami - (10)

2005

Tampa - (7)

Jax - (7)

Miami - (4)

2006

Tampa - (4)

Jax - (6)

Miami - (8)

2007

Tampa - (10)

Jax - (3)

Miami - (9)

So Tampa and Miami overlapped once, as did TB and Jax.

Miami and Jax have never overlapped, but that's a substantial distance even within a state.

Also I don't know if there was an external force that caused either overlap (like mentioned in the Baltimore / Wash occurrence the first time).

This is an interesting one to watch, but I don't think it is as substantial as the other markets.

 
nice, but you didn't need to do the math about teams from the same market being off at the same time. Did you really think the NFL would have BOTH the Jets and Giants off on the same weekend?!? not a chance..a two-team BYE week in the NY metro area would tear a hole in the universe. ;)

Not only will the NFL NOT allow two teams in the same market to be off at the same time, neither will the networks covering the games.They've paid a lot of $$ in NFL licensing, and since EVERY market that has two teams is a LARGE city with millions of viewers, there's not a chance of it happening.

This has nothing to do with math and games of chance. the NFL is a finely tuned machine, thats why it's best pro sports entity in the world. They've got things 'dialed-in'.

 
Jeff Pasquino said:
Ok, this will be (most likely) only of interest to those of you in Dynasty, deep Keeper, or Survivor Leagues.

The questions come up this time of year about Bye Weeks for the teams as the schedule is slated to come out soon (technically it was supposed to be out already).

So, in an effort to help my fellow FBG, I'm going to cast this out there and see what you all (or "yous" in Philly, or "y'all" for many ;) ) think.

First off, here's what I did. I took the last 5 years of bye weeks and just looked for any patterns.

I'll list any observations I find, but I will state one that screamed out to me:



"Shared TV Markets amongst 2 teams in different conferences almost NEVER have the same Bye Weeks".

Huh?

Well, let's look at the data. I took 6 markets that could be said to have overlapping TV markets:



1. SF / Oak

2. NYJ / NYG

3. Philly / Baltimore

4. Indy / Chicago

5. Dallas / Houston

6. STL / KC

Now, breaking these down for the last 5 years - what are the odds that one of these pairs would share a bye?

Math time (feel free to skip):

Before last year and the Bye Week Peril of Weeks 6 and 7 with 6 teams off, the NFL had 8 weeks of 4 teams with byes. That's just under 10% chance that any two teams would share a bye (3/31, or 9.7% to be accurate). So if you pick any two teams at random, there's about a 10% chance that they would "intersect" or share a bye.

Last year, with 6 teams off twice, that math went up to 11.5% (3/31 five weeks, 5/31 twice, or an avg. of 25/(31*7)).

So for all intents and purposes, the odds that any two teams in the last five years would share a bye, at random, is about 40-50%. (Again math - I think the correct answer to this is to figure out the odds that they won't share a bye = (100%-9.7%)^4 * (100%-11.5%) = 58.8%, so there's a 41.2% chance they share a bye).
Click to expand...
So, if I can find a case where they NEVER or ALMOST NEVER intersect, I can say that it is significant, since there should be a 41.2% chance that they share a bye at some point over the past 5 years.Here's my results:

Of the six shared TV markets listed above, ZERO shared a Bye. That's right. None. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

Now why would the NFL want to do this on purpose? Well, if your team is "off" in your TV market, you would want the adjacent team to be available to watch as a pseudo-home team. That's my theory and it does make sense for fans and for ratings.

So, is this finding significant? You decide. But of 6 pairs, based on that 41.2% chance, there's less than 1/2 a percent chance that none of thse share a bye. That means that if you picked 6 pairs of teams at random, 99.5% of the time you'll find that one of the pairs shares a bye. To me, that matters.

There's one TV market that I did look at which didn't "fit" the model, and that's Baltimore and Washington. Now, Baltimore is close to Philly as well, and that model fit, but to be fair I have to look at the two Maryland area teams. In 2005, for some reason, these two teams were both off Week 3. Now, 1 data point out of 35 doesn't entirely violate this, but for me, if I had to "guess", I would imagine that the six teams listed above will not share a bye week in 2007 and it is highly likely that the Ravens and the Redskins also won't share a bye.

Will I be right or wrong? Is this significant? Time will tell - and we'll know soon.

Let me know what you think.
Click to expand...
Jeff Pasquino said:
2007 Bye Weeks

Week 4: NYG, DET, SEA, NE, INDY, MIA

Week 5: STL, NYJ, CLE, OAK

Week 6: BUF, PIT, TEN, KC

Week 7: PHI, ATL, AZ, JAX

Week 8: DEN, CHI, GB, MIN, CIN, HOU

Week 9: SD, NO, CAR, SF

Week 10: DAL, WASH, TB, BAL

Miami was missed.
Click to expand...
1. SF (9) / Oak (5)2. NYJ (5) / NYG (4)

3. Philly (7) / Baltimore (10)

4. Indy (4) / Chicago (8)

5. Dallas (10) / Houston (8)

6. STL (5) / KC (6)

100%.

Still problematic is the Baltimore / Washington market. Both are off Week 10 this year, the second time in 7 years they have shared the bye.

Frankly I can't explain this one except maybe some NFL politics and/or Baltimore being a Washington secondary TV market. Really don't know on this one.

 
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Detroit and Cleveland have overlapping TV boundaries.

Cincy and Indy also overlap.

Those are just two off the top of my head that should be considered if you want a true data set.

Probably Carolina and Atlanta as well.

 
komments said:
Detroit and Cleveland have overlapping TV boundaries.Cincy and Indy also overlap.Those are just two off the top of my head that should be considered if you want a true data set.Probably Carolina and Atlanta as well.
Click to expand...
Det/Cle - 7 years of data - never shared a bye. :thumbup:Cincy / Indy - Same deal. 0 for 7. :nerd:Car / Atl - Same deal. 0 for 7. :loco:
 
I think I hit the southern trifecta.

What about New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina? I see no common bye weeks for any of these teams for the past five years (although I used a hunt-and-peck method for determining bye weeks the past five years - scouring FBG game logs for players I knew to be on the team rosters; I may have erred).

Tennessee and Jacksonville did not mesh so well.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Dont baltimore and Washington have overalping TV markets? They share a bye this season
Click to expand...
Yes they do - second time that's happened.They are an oddball because Washington has deemed Baltimore a secondary market. I think there's something up with the first time that happened with them several years ago.They're basically the only outlier to this. I think there's some league politics at play with these two.
 
Mister CIA said:
I think I hit the southern trifecta. What about New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina? I see no common bye weeks for any of these teams for the past five years (although I used a hunt-and-peck method for determining bye weeks the past five years - scouring FBG game logs for players I knew to be on the team rosters; I may have erred).Tennessee and Jacksonville did not mesh so well.
Click to expand...
NO / Carolina - 2002 (1) and now Week 9 this year.ATL / NO - noneATL / CAR - noneSo I don't know if this one holds water.
 
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Charlotte to Atlanta: 222 miles

Atlanta to New Orleans: 429 miles

Charlotte to New Orleans: 659 miles

I wouldn't think there's any reason the 2nd two pairings couldn't share bye weeks if distance/TV markets are the issue. Charlotte and Atlanta could have some overlap though.

 
Jeff Pasquino said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Dont baltimore and Washington have overalping TV markets? They share a bye this season
Click to expand...
Yes they do - second time that's happened.They are an oddball because Washington has deemed Baltimore a secondary market. I think there's something up with the first time that happened with them several years ago.They're basically the only outlier to this. I think there's some league politics at play with these two.
Click to expand...
Jeff - just a guess, maybe it's got to do with the Presidential Election on 11/4? Was/Bal area might be crowded the following weekend (11/8-11/9).
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Dont baltimore and Washington have overalping TV markets? They share a bye this season
Click to expand...
Yes they do - second time that's happened.They are an oddball because Washington has deemed Baltimore a secondary market. I think there's something up with the first time that happened with them several years ago.They're basically the only outlier to this. I think there's some league politics at play with these two.
Click to expand...
IMO, this is better for the local DC affiliate. If BAL didn't have a bye same week as WAS, they would likely be forced to play BAL game during WAS bye, whereas they would probably get better ratings in DC MSA with the national game.I doubt that BAL games generate any higher ratings in Skins-Crazy DC than most other teams.
 
AdmiralST said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Dont baltimore and Washington have overalping TV markets? They share a bye this season
Click to expand...
Yes they do - second time that's happened.They are an oddball because Washington has deemed Baltimore a secondary market. I think there's something up with the first time that happened with them several years ago.They're basically the only outlier to this. I think there's some league politics at play with these two.
Click to expand...
Jeff - just a guess, maybe it's got to do with the Presidential Election on 11/4? Was/Bal area might be crowded the following weekend (11/8-11/9).
Click to expand...
This is a good point, but I don't know if that matters come the following weekend.......
 
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