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So, based on approx 475 carries and maybe 60 recpts for the rb's
ortis 285 carries 36 recptsBetts 195 carries 24 recptsAssuming that per hx, Portis doesnt hold up for all 16 games and Betts is brought in to start maybe two times.
I would expect far more than 60 rec for the RBs in Saunders O. Probably closer to 100.So, based on approx 475 carries and maybe 60 recpts for the rb's
100 recpts for the rbs only leaves at most 200 to be split w/ Cooley, Moss and the rest of the team. And thats assuming that the Qb completes 300 pass attempts which is a stretch. Can maybe buy 285 recpts max and upgrade the rb recpts to about the 80 level though.I would expect far more than 60 rec for the RBs in Saunders O. Probably closer to 100.So, based on approx 475 carries and maybe 60 recpts for the rb's
I think Betts will get more than 40% of the receptions, probably less than 40% of the carries.I expect Portis to be the starter. Betts will be the 3rd down back but will spell Portis more often. The key question is who gets the goalline carries. I could see Betts getting some of those too.To quantify, Portis 70% of the carries, 30% of the receptions.I would expect far more than 60 rec for the RBs in Saunders O. Probably closer to 100.So, based on approx 475 carries and maybe 60 recpts for the rb's
As a Portis owner, I'm not expecting more than 20 carries a game with a couple receptions, a TD in 2/3 of his games. Roughly (if he plays all 16 games), 300 carries for 1350 yards, 32 receptions for 240, 11 TDs. Anything on top of that would be a bonus.I think Betts will get more than 40% of the receptions, probably less than 40% of the carries.I expect Portis to be the starter. Betts will be the 3rd down back but will spell Portis more often. The key question is who gets the goalline carries. I could see Betts getting some of those too.To quantify, Portis 70% of the carries, 30% of the receptions.I would expect far more than 60 rec for the RBs in Saunders O. Probably closer to 100.So, based on approx 475 carries and maybe 60 recpts for the rb's
Well, the Wash RBs accounted for 90 rec last year, WRs 123 and TEs 61. 274 total reception.100 recpts for the rbs only leaves at most 200 to be split w/ Cooley, Moss and the rest of the team. And thats assuming that the Qb completes 300 pass attempts which is a stretch. Can maybe buy 285 recpts max and upgrade the rb recpts to about the 80 level though.I would expect far more than 60 rec for the RBs in Saunders O. Probably closer to 100.So, based on approx 475 carries and maybe 60 recpts for the rb's
Did you not watch the games last year. When Portis was healthy, this was a totally different team. He is night and day better than Betts.
I'm not so sure that's how you want to go about resolving the issue. From 2003-2006, there was no significant correlation between 1) receptions by RBs on a team and 2) receptions by non-RBs by a team. Basically, they're not fighting over the same pie. A lot of receptions by RBs doesn't mean there won't be a lot of receptions by non-RBs. Over the last four years, teams have averaged 304 receptions; 77.4 by RBs and 226.6 by non-RBs. The top 10 teams in receptions by RBs over that time averaged 124.0 receptions by RBs, and 224.5 receptions by non-RBs. The bottom 10 teams averaged 44.9 receptions by RBs, and 220.3 receptions by non-RBs. For the entire 128 teams, the R^2 for the variables Receptions by RBs and Receptions by Non-RBs was 0.001. That means, loosely speaking, that one tenth of one percent of the factors that make up how many receptions non-RBs on a team get are determined by the receptions by RBs. So yea, they're not fighting over the same pie.On the other side, the top ten teams in receptions by non-RBs averaged 76.9 receptions by RBs and 295.3 receptions by non-RBs. The bottom ten teams in receptions by non-RBs averaged 72.2 receptions by RBs and 159.3 receptions by non-RBs. So really, you should calculate your receptions by RBs independently of your receptions by non-RBs.100 recpts for the rbs only leaves at most 200 to be split w/ Cooley, Moss and the rest of the team. And thats assuming that the Qb completes 300 pass attempts which is a stretch. Can maybe buy 285 recpts max and upgrade the rb recpts to about the 80 level though.I would expect far more than 60 rec for the RBs in Saunders O. Probably closer to 100.So, based on approx 475 carries and maybe 60 recpts for the rb's
Betts had 53 last year, he can do 40. I agree on knocking down Portis recept totals.
Gibbs has already been there and done that. He has a post season victory with this incarnation of the Skins. Those don't just grow on tree's mind you. There are alot of reasons why this could be Gibbs last season. Lack of success isn't one of them.
Stop! Comments like NYGiants are what make Portis a great value this year for those willing to take the "risk" of talent over part of a season's performance. Betts is a good backup, might even be a decent starter, but Portis is among the elite.
Well, if Portis puts up those numbers, then the Redskins are an 11 or 12-win team. I'm not saying that to say that I think it's impossible, but that requires pretty much everything to go right. I happen to be optimistic about them bouncing back this year. I'd also say that you're also likely a bit optimistic about Betts' reception totals. If I'm trying to project what is "most likely" to happen (which is usually what I am doing when I project), I'm thinking more along the lines of these numbersI guess I'll just throw out some projections for the sake of this thread... I think that is what the OP is really looking for
ortis:300 carries, 1320 yds, 12 TDs30 rec, 225 yds, 1 TDBetts:180 carries, 864 yds, 2 TDs45 rec, 400 yds, 1 TDI reserve the right to change my mind, and this is very much from the hip at this point, but that's my preliminary impression.
Portis's main injury this past season was his shoulder that came about from making a tackle during the preseason (which was quite impressive). Why do you people keep applying the injury prone/can't stay healthy tag to him? He has never had a major injury since being in the league.
This looks spot on atleast at this point in time.
It would also stand to reason that if the rushing yardage totals go up the main beneficiary would likely be Portis, given he played sparingly last year.
What's that look like in games when both are healthy?
Was basically going to post the same thing. Betts had 121 of his 192 1st and 10 carries last year, when Portis was injured with the shoulder injury and then later in the year when he went out with the wrist injury. I pray that the Betts factor will somehow drop Portis into the top of the 2nd round in some of my drafts.
Those are deceptive stats because Portis was much better than Betts in 2004 (4.21 vs. 3.67) and 2005 (4.41 vs. 3.00). Betts was great last year and looks good in comparison to Portis (5.02 vs. 3.94) while Portis was injured but had he been healthy I think he would have been over 5 YPC on 1st downs as well.
Its easy to show a player's productivity before a significant injury. Being that he was out last year with a season ending injury I'd have to say he now has a history, no? He had been nicked up in his first few years and played through it, but I wasn't really referring to that.what injury history would that be?? He has played in 16, 13, 15, 16 games his first four seasons. Last year has been the only year that he has been hurt. Yes he has been nicked up from time to time, but what RB isn't?
While I don't totally disagree with you, I would ask if RBs run with their shoulders. Bottom line, as far as I know his legs/knees/ankles are fine so I would not necessarily label his injury last year as "serious." Football is not croquet and injuries happen.Even counting last year, Portis has the 6th most carries over the past 5 years. I would not be all that concerned that he is more of an injury risk than most other RBs. I would be more concerned that Betts will cut into Portis' touches than Portis getting hurt again.Its easy to show a player's productivity before a significant injury. Being that he was out last year with a season ending injury I'd have to say he now has a history, no? He had been nicked up in his first few years and played through it, but I wasn't really referring to that.what injury history would that be?? He has played in 16, 13, 15, 16 games his first four seasons. Last year has been the only year that he has been hurt. Yes he has been nicked up from time to time, but what RB isn't?
. There isn't too many lasting effects from those 2 injuries.
AbsolutelyWhat people have to remember... he DID NOT HAVE A TRUE SEASON ENDING INJURY. He only broke his hand and that was in the middle of Nov. You guys make it sound like he had the C-Pep injury. Come on, He had a shoulder dislocation in Aug and a broken hand in Nov; and some of you think his career is done. There isn't too many lasting effects from those 2 injuries.Portis has had a lot of time to recover from these minor injuries and will be 100% this yr.Its the people that think a shoulder dislocation and a broken hand that happened over 9 months before the next season starts will keep Portis down makes Him great Value and makes others reach for Betts.And why do people think that Betts is so great; hes been on that team since 2002 and never had more than 90 rushing attempts until Portis got Hurt. I'm sure if he was that good, another team would of went after him this yr.
I completely agree and can't figure out why people think Betts is anything more the a one year wonder. Good backup certainly, but not a guy who is a serious threat to Portis.
But Betts was drafted only 3 picks after Portis in the 2002 NFL draft.AbsolutelyWhat people have to remember... he DID NOT HAVE A TRUE SEASON ENDING INJURY. He only broke his hand and that was in the middle of Nov. You guys make it sound like he had the C-Pep injury. Come on, He had a shoulder dislocation in Aug and a broken hand in Nov; and some of you think his career is done. There isn't too many lasting effects from those 2 injuries.Portis has had a lot of time to recover from these minor injuries and will be 100% this yr.Its the people that think a shoulder dislocation and a broken hand that happened over 9 months before the next season starts will keep Portis down makes Him great Value and makes others reach for Betts.And why do people think that Betts is so great; hes been on that team since 2002 and never had more than 90 rushing attempts until Portis got Hurt. I'm sure if he was that good, another team would of went after him this yr.
You're exactly right. I'd just point out, though, that "nobody went after" Betts because he signed an extension prior to the end of last season.What people have to remember... he DID NOT HAVE A TRUE SEASON ENDING INJURY. He only broke his hand and that was in the middle of Nov. You guys make it sound like he had the C-Pep injury. Come on, He had a shoulder dislocation in Aug and a broken hand in Nov; and some of you think his career is done. There isn't too many lasting effects from those 2 injuries.Portis has had a lot of time to recover from these minor injuries and will be 100% this yr.Its the people that think a shoulder dislocation and a broken hand that happened over 9 months before the next season starts will keep Portis down makes Him great Value and makes others reach for Betts.And why do people think that Betts is so great; hes been on that team since 2002 and never had more than 90 rushing attempts until Portis got Hurt. I'm sure if he was that good, another team would of went after him this yr.
Because Portis is better and gives the Redskins a better chance at winning. The goal is to win games. Sure keeping Portis fresh and healthy are part of that. By no means should the split me close to = though.
Because when neither is hurt, Portis performs better than Betts.
