I'm going to merge the DL/LB/DB posts into one big thread. It's a great pre-draft topic. And since it'll be free content anyway, I'm adding the text of my coming article for discussion purposes.
IDP/Dynasty Opportunity in the 2007 Draft
Owners in IDP dynasty leagues know how important the off-season can be to putting together a championship team. In my opinion, there are three major things to consider before the pre-season begins. We’re past the first two phases of the off-season now – considering the early impact of coach and scheme changes (Phase 1) and understanding how free agency will impact IDP value (Phase 2). Late April brings the third and final phase – the NFL Draft.
Most IDP owners will watch the first couple rounds of the draft looking for prospects. The shark will anticipate the most attractive situations into which a rookie might be drafted and follow the good situations as closely as the name players. It’s why the sharks draft Mark Anderson and not Haloti Ngata or take a late flier on a guy like Dawan Landry, Omar Gaither or Freddy Keiaho (situations we highlighted last year) before most know they are in the league.
As always, there’s plenty of potential IDP value to be had if the right player lands in the right situation this year. Here are a few important situations to watch this weekend.
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
A rookie drafted into any of the following situations has a very good chance at starting opening weekend in a good role for IDP production.
San Diego (S) – The SS play in San Diego has been inconsistent since Terrence Kiel’s solid 2004. Bwahoh Jue is in line to get a shot at the job but he’s struggled with durability and has yet to impress over an extended period. This season’s group of rookie safeties is deep. Don’t ignore a fourth or fifth round draftee if the Chargers elect to address other needs first. With the Chargers replacing both ILB, including stud Donnie Edwards, a top SS could have immediate value.
Carolina (S) – Shaun Williams, when healthy, was very productive at SS in 2006. The Panthers LB situation remains unsettled and the Panthers are ultra-thin at safety behind veteran Mike Minter. This may be the most attractive position for an incoming rookie safety this year. A solid run supporting safety here could well be the early favorite for DB1 in rookie drafts in 2007.
Detroit (LB) – The Lions are currently planning to use Paris Lenon or the fragile Teddy Lehman at MLB in 2007. There are plenty of other holes to fill on the roster but the draft is rich with undersized LB prospects. Most of them will fit best at OLB, but the same was said of DeMeco Ryans last year. While WLB Ernie Sims will remain the bellcow in the Lion Tampa-2, whomever the Lions draft at LB could have a direct path to nice IDP value at MLB.
SITUATIONS FOR THE TAKING
Some of these situations will be quickly promoted into the immediate impact category on draft day (i.e. whomever drafts Patrick Willis) but most will involve training camp battles or development before bearing fruit.
Jacksonville (DE) – Bobby McCray established himself as a pass rush threat last year, totaling 10 sacks after Reggie Hayward was injured, and has some IDP value. But the Jaguars haven’t had an elite IDP two-way end since Tony Brackens’ last productive season in 2001. The Jags are also looking for secondary help but could take one of the many solid DE prospects with their first round pick or a developmental guy later. With two solid DTs to help siphon double teams, a rookie DE could have nice value here.
Buffalo Bills (LB) – Angelo Crowell seems set at MLB, with last year’s late round draftee Keith Ellison at one OLB spot. But with the Bills losing London Fletcher-Baker in free agency and trading Takeo Spikes this off-season, there’s a clear need for a LB. Crowell and Ellison are capable of playing either OLB spot, so an incoming rookie could land in either the promising MLB or ROLB role. Even if the Bills don’t get stud MLB prospect Patrick Willis, an undersized OLB with range and above average cover skills could have very nice IDP value.
Denver (LB) – With the release of MLB Al Wilson earlier this month, the stage is apparently set for SLB DJ Williams to take over a three down role in the middle. Still, it’s possible that the Broncos draft an ILB prospect to take over at MLB. In Jim Bates Miami 4-3, the MLB is a big favorite to rack up tackles. Even a two down MLB could have rosterable value in this system.
Denver (DE) – We mentioned this as a prime landing spot for a rookie last year. While Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos’ 06 4th round pick, put up 7.5 sacks as a situational pass rusher, he’s not well-suited to take over a three down role. New defensive coordinator Jim Bates likes to flank his ends wide and let them get after the quarterback. Ebenezer Ekuban played well in 2006, but there’s plenty of room for a young two-way end in Denver.
Houston (S) – After addressing most of their other defensive needs over the past two seasons, the Texans may finally look to improve their safety play. Current safeties Glenn Earl and CC Brown aren’t impact players and SS Earl has had difficulty staying healthy. A stud in-the-box safety talent would be a must roster in rookie drafts.
Indianapolis (LB) – Tony Dungy is on record as backing last year’s fifth round pick Freddy Keiaho for the primo WLB job vacated by Cato June. With the depth of undersized OLB with cover skills available in this draft, though, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Colts use a high pick on one. June provided LB2 value despite below average run support skill. Should the Colts grab a better all-around player like Jon Beason late in the first, Derrick Brooks/Lance Briggs like Tampa-2 WLB production is very possible.
New England (LB) – Speculating on what Bill Belichick wants to do with in the draft is usually a futile exercise. At first glance, Junior Seau, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel and Eric Alexander look like a solid quartet at ILB. But Seau and Bruschi are well past their peak years and Alexander looked overmatched down the stretch last year. A solid ILB prospect may look like a developmental guy at first, but could quickly work his way into nice IDP value.
Atlanta (DE) – Patrick Kerney has moved on in free agency, John Abraham is a leg injury waiting to happen and the Falcons’ depth has been shaky when pressed into full time service. For now, third year man Chauncey Davis is expected to get the bulk of snaps in rotation with Paul Carrington and Josh Mallard. None are impressive pass rushers and all are undersized for an every down role. Keep a close eye on any rookie pass rushers the Falcons take in this draft.
Carolina (LB) – The Panther LB corps has fallen apart since 2004 when the trio of Mark Fields, Dan Morgan and Will Witherspoon was among the best in the league. Morgan signed an incentive laden contract that will pay him on a game by game basis in 2007 – not exactly a ringing vote of confidence in his health. Meanwhile, Chris Draft was allowed to sign with the Rams and last year’s presumed heir Adam Seward was a mess in the middle last season. Though Na’il Diggs is back and the team is high on last year’s third round pick James Anderson, the Panthers may still take a MLB prospect for the future.
Detroit (CB) – Shark IDP owners know to keep an eye on the Tampa-2 teams for CB prospects as the scheme provides more tackle opportunity than schemes that use a lot of mixed coverages. The Lions don’t have a Ronde Barber or Charles Tillman in their secondary and there are plenty of solid zone cover guys with good run support skills available in this draft. Those in CB specific leagues should watch the Lions draft closely for dynasty prospects.
San Francisco (LB) – The Niners hope to move back into Mike Nolan’s preferred 3-4 scheme this year. Two potential starters at ILB, Derek Smith and Jeff Ulbrich, are past their primes and have been injury prone in recent seasons. Promising youngster Brandon Moore will be in the mix as well but the coaching staff has yet to leave him in one position for any length of time. While there are more obstacles to IDP success for an ILB in a 3-4 scheme, there are plenty of recent examples of solid production (e.g. Donnie Edwards, James Farrior, Andra Davis in recent seasons). Ignore 3-4 ILB prospects at your own risk.
Tampa Bay (S) – Despite recent comments from the Buccaneer coaching staff that the team is happy with the current safety corps, Jermaine Phillips and Will Allen are replacement level talent. Phillips nearly lost his job mid-season to journeyman Kalvin Pearson despite his pretty boxscore lines. Safeties in Cover-2 schemes need to be good in both pass coverage and run support to hold much IDP value but Phillips showed that solid tackle numbers are possible. It’s worth monitoring the pre-season progress of any safety the Bucs take in this draft.
Jacksonville (S) – The Jaguars lost starting FS Deon Grant to Seattle in free agency and SS Donovin Darius is still recovering from a season-ending broken leg. The team expects Gerald Sensabaugh to assume a starting role, but most observers expect the team to bring in competition through the draft. The Jags mix up their cover schemes and use both safeties in deep coverage interchangeably, which can depress the value of the safety position for IDP purposes. Still, a stud two way safety prospect like Reggie Nelson could make enough plays to overcome the relative lack of tackles.
DEEP DYNASTY SITUATIONS TO WATCH
Players drafted into these situations may take longer to develop but will likely have very high IDP ceilings when they finally earn playing time.
St. Louis (S) – Veteran SS Corey Chavous had 77 solo tackles for the Rams last year despite playing behind a solid MLB in Will Witherspoon. Some of his production may be attributable to Pisa Tinoisamoa’s struggles with injury at WLB, but there’s plenty of value at SS in this scheme. Chavous will be back as the starter in 2007, but the Rams could take one of the many solid safety prospects to groom for the future.
Baltimore Ravens (LB) – Ray Lewis is under contract through 2008 but continues to fuss over an extension. Lewis is still the man for the foreseeable future but his play has declined, he’s been dinged in each of the past three seasons and backups Mike Smith and Dennis Haley aren’t anything special. Potential contract situation involving a player at a stud position without a viable replacement on the roster – sound familiar? We could’ve typed the same line about the WLB spot in Indianapolis and Chicago this time last season. The ILB group isn’t tremendous this year, but the Ravens have extra fourth, fifth, and sixth round picks and may take a shot on a guy to groom for the future.
New England (S) – Rodney Harrison will never be the same player he was two seasons ago. While the Pats have a bunch of safeties hanging around, James Sanders, Eugene Wilson and Artrell Hawkins aren’t long-term answers. It takes time for a new player to get coached up in Bill Belichick’s complicated hybrid scheme, especially at safety, where Belichick likes to have an intelligent player who fully understands the role of everyone in the defense. A well-seasoned and talented player at SS in this scheme has been gold (Harrison, Kerry Rhodes, Sean Jones) in recent seasons. Dynasty leaguers should strongly consider stashing anyone Belichick drafts for this role regardless of how deeply he may be buried on the depth chart initially.
Pittsburgh (LB) – The Steeler draft should be very interesting to watch unfold this year. New head coach Mike Tomlin is saying all the right things about fitting the defense to his current personnel but has pulled no punches about his interest in working in some Tampa-2 concepts. The best linebacker on the team, James Farrior, is 32 years old with balky knees and Larry Foote may not be a good fit in a Tampa-2 scheme. If the Steelers grab an quick undersized backer with solid coverage skills, snap him up. There may not be great value in redraft leagues, but it would very likely signal a major change is on the horizon in Pittsburgh.
Atlanta (S) – It’s been heavily rumored that the Falcons are a lock to draft LSU S Laron Landry with the 8th overall pick. Landry would have nice value, even as a FS behind a well above average group of quick and pursuing linebackers, and would qualify as an immediate impact performer. But it’s also worth watching the Falcon draft to see if a more traditional in-the-box safety comes off the board. New defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer was a big fan of Roy Williams and veteran Lawyer Milloy is on the downside of his career. If the Falcons miss on Landry, it may be a mid-round consolation prize that claims nice value in future years.
New Orleans (LB) – The Saints seem flush with solid veteran linebackers. Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle had very solid seasons on the outside and New Orleans added Brian Simmons to improve the middle linebacker spot. Simmons, though, struggled with a nerve injury in his neck last season and is a risky long-term answer. Given the weak play of Mark Simoneau and Alfred Fincher in recent seasons, the Saints have no viable options behind the starting group. There could be much better upside here than there appears at first glance.
Philadelphia (LB) – The Eagles linebacker unit was a mess last year. Dhani Jones, Matt McCoy and Shawn Barber struggled through inconsistent play and injury. MLB Jeremiah Trotter also declined and there have been multiple off-season reports that the team is looking for an excuse (overweight, bad knees) to replace him. Either last year’s fifth round pick Omar Gaither or recent free agent signee Takeo Spikes could assume the MLB spot but both may be better fits outside. Again, there aren’t many stud ILB prospects this year, but even a slightly above average player can have good IDP value with the right opportunity.
Anticipation is the key to success in dynasty leagues. Watching the above situations closely will take some effort, but investing a late round rookie pick on a player that out-produces your competition’s early round picks wins championships. Join us in our IDP Forum on draft day to discuss the impact of all the incoming rookies. And, as always, feel free to email bramel@footballguys.com with questions and suggestions.
Happy Draft Day!
Tick.
For those not real familiar with the Raves D set-up, don't get caught up in the MLB/WLB/SLB game. All three spots have an equal opportunity for big plays & tackles as the Ravens move them all over the place. I've seen all three loaded to one side as often as I've seen a traditional configuration. I'm not sold on Johnson either, and it'll be interesting to see if/where the Ravens select one this weekend. Keep an eye on who looks like they're in the running for Thomas' spot. If you have room, roster a couple of the contenders if no one emerges right away - you could get a very productive player real cheap (Bart Scott anyone?). Don't wait too long though - by August someone's stock is going to be waay up, and so is his price.
Sounds like Cody is always in the mix as a situational rusher but the Ravens still have little idea of how good he'll be and whether the knee injuries will cost him any of his explosiveness. Barnes has end experience despite his size but he's raw in most other areas according to scouting reports. Burgess is limited too. None of the four will be anything like Thomas unfortunately. He's going to be a huge loss in that scheme.
