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Tom Brady's Fantasy Ranking (1 Viewer)

Alluro

Alluro

Footballguy
Now that Moss is a Patriot, what is the consensus on where Tom Brady ranks as a starter going into next season? Do the additions of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker push him into the top 5 easily? Does he have a shot to outgun Manning, Palmer, or Brees for #1 status? I am extremely bullish on Brady's prospects this season, and feel that he is going to have a career year. I'm just not quite sure where he falls on the fantasy radar.

Moss, Stallworth, Welker..and an improving Ben Watson? Yeesh ..Look out for the Tommy Gun! I'm also intereted in stat projections. I'm seeing 4100 yds, 31 TDs, 2 rushing tds

 
Alluro said:
I'm seeing 4100 yds, 31 TDs, 2 rushing tds
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This projection would place Brady at QB #1 or 2 in fantasy. I happen to like it but have one major concern. Will NE be up too much in games for those to be a reality? This team looks to have one of the best Ds in teh NFL as well as the O they have built. Brady simply may not ever need to throw that much.
 
Alluro said:
Now that Moss is a Patriot, what is the consensus on where Tom Brady ranks as a starter going into next season? Do the additions of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker push him into the top 5 easily? Does he have a shot to outgun Manning, Palmer, or Brees for #1 status? I am extremely bullish on Brady's prospects this season, and feel that he is going to have a career year. I'm just not quite sure where he falls on the fantasy radar. Moss, Stallworth, Welker..and an improving Ben Watson? Yeesh ..Look out for the Tommy Gun! I'm also intereted in stat projections. I'm seeing 4100 yds, 31 TDs, 2 rushing tds
Click to expand...
Where'd you get the two rushing TDs from?
 
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fruity pebbles said:
Alluro said:
Now that Moss is a Patriot, what is the consensus on where Tom Brady ranks as a starter going into next season? Do the additions of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker push him into the top 5 easily? Does he have a shot to outgun Manning, Palmer, or Brees for #1 status? I am extremely bullish on Brady's prospects this season, and feel that he is going to have a career year. I'm just not quite sure where he falls on the fantasy radar. Moss, Stallworth, Welker..and an improving Ben Watson? Yeesh ..Look out for the Tommy Gun! I'm also intereted in stat projections. I'm seeing 4100 yds, 31 TDs, 2 rushing tds
Click to expand...
Where'd you get the two rushing TDs from?
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In career years, you usually see a few anamolies. Brady averages about 1 td a year on the ground. 2 for his career season seemed reasonable...maybe give him another passing td and dock a rushing td from his tally upon further review.
 
Alluro said:
Now that Moss is a Patriot, what is the consensus on where Tom Brady ranks as a starter going into next season? Do the additions of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker push him into the top 5 easily? Does he have a shot to outgun Manning, Palmer, or Brees for #1 status? I am extremely bullish on Brady's prospects this season, and feel that he is going to have a career year. I'm just not quite sure where he falls on the fantasy radar. Moss, Stallworth, Welker..and an improving Ben Watson? Yeesh ..Look out for the Tommy Gun! I'm also intereted in stat projections. I'm seeing 4100 yds, 31 TDs, 2 rushing tds
Click to expand...
Hasn't he been a "lock" for top 5 for years now, even without any WRs?
 
NO, i don't think he's a lock. Its not hard to imagine these QBs finishing ahead of him:

Manning

Palmer

Brees

Young

McNabb

Bulger

 
Alluro said:
fruity pebbles said:
Alluro said:
Now that Moss is a Patriot, what is the consensus on where Tom Brady ranks as a starter going into next season? Do the additions of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker push him into the top 5 easily? Does he have a shot to outgun Manning, Palmer, or Brees for #1 status? I am extremely bullish on Brady's prospects this season, and feel that he is going to have a career year. I'm just not quite sure where he falls on the fantasy radar. Moss, Stallworth, Welker..and an improving Ben Watson? Yeesh ..Look out for the Tommy Gun! I'm also intereted in stat projections. I'm seeing 4100 yds, 31 TDs, 2 rushing tds
Click to expand...
Where'd you get the two rushing TDs from?
Click to expand...
In career years, you usually see a few anamolies. Brady averages about 1 td a year on the ground. 2 for his career season seemed reasonable...maybe give him another passing td and dock a rushing td from his tally upon further review.
Click to expand...
Seems like an odd thing to project. He's got a better chance to score zero on the ground than two.
 
While I do think that Brady should be in for a great year, bear in mind that he's never played with Moss, Stallworth, Welker, or Washington (if he sticks) and he really did not have a ton of time with Caldwell or Gaffney. Long story short, there's a chance that not everyone will be on the same page. That may or not rnter into the equation, but I think Brady may have a couple of games early where they are getting in sync and there may be some passes when not everyone is running the right route.

As for Sinrman's comment, Brady has ranked in the Top 5 once in 6 years as a starter.

 
He'll finish in the mid-range somewhere. The Pats being so good are going to work against him for fantasy stats. He's not going to need to air it out all the time like 2005 when the running game struggled and the secondary was non-existent.

The only way I can see this changing is if the running game is in the tank and the passing game has to carry the offense.

 
Buckna said:
He'll finish in the mid-range somewhere. The Pats being so good are going to work against him for fantasy stats. He's not going to need to air it out all the time like 2005 when the running game struggled and the secondary was non-existent.The only way I can see this changing is if the running game is in the tank and the passing game has to carry the offense.
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As I see things here in New England, there seems to be some thought that the team will pass more than other years given that they've invested so much at the WR position and they may not view Maroney as a 300+ carry back. They've implemented a ball control passing game over the years and that may be coming back (see the Vikings game last year). We'll have to wait and see. Maybe Brady gets 2 TDs in the first half and then they go to the run, but he still would have had two TDs . . .
 
He is usually good for 200-250 2TD each week. Probably not considered top 5 material. With their D they wont be playing catch up very much so you'd expect to see a fair bit of running games out.

That being said, Brady is a solid option to start nearly every yr, has been for the past 3-4. Whether the addition of Moss will up his #s, guess only time will tell.

 
Does Brady even have the arm to play to Moss's strength (the "run 50 yds downfield and wave for the ball" route)? It's not like Moss is going to suddenly learn to run disciplined routes that he's never run before in his career.

 
Brady the last 6 years:

2001 413 att, 264 comp 2843 yards 28 TD 14 INT

2002 601/373/3764/23/12

2003 527/317/3620/28/14

2004 474/288/3692/28/14

2005 530/334/4110/26/14

2006 516/319/3529/24/12

Completion percentages (rounded off to nearest percent): 63, 62, 60, 61, 63, 62.

ypa 6.9, 6.3, 6.9, 7.8, 7.8, 6.8

The aberration seems to be the 2005 season, when ypa was up and so was attempts. Why did ypa drop in 2006? Don't forget they'll have to break in 3 new WRs as well - new to the system at least, which can;t make Mr. Brady's life a lot easier.

While we are on the subject - for those that are high on NE receivers:

The last two years NE had 11 players catch more than 10 balls. None had more than 5 TDs in 2006, none more than 4 in 2005. no 1000 yard seasons - although Branch was close in 2005 (998 yards).

TO had a dramatic effect on McNabb - but mostly on completion percentage (which then pulls ypa up) - would Moss/Stallworth/Welker really make Brady a 70% completion passer?

If they keep passing just over 500 times and MOss/Stallworts et al brings the ypa up to 7.8 we end close to 4,000 yards.

Last year Brady scored 24 TDs and the RBs ran 20 TDs in. Gostkowski made 60 points on field goals, the defense scored about 20 points.

For Brady to increase his TD total either the offense as a whole scores more, either some TDs are thrown as opposed to run in, the amount of field goals reduced (less opportunity) or a combination of them all.

IMHO - the Moss trade - even if Moss is effective - is not as positive for Randy as people believe but likely the big losers would be Ben Watson and Lawrence Maroney if he, say, catches 10 TD passes.

 
David Yudkin said:
As for Sinrman's comment, Brady has ranked in the Top 5 once in 6 years as a starter.
Click to expand...
He's been top 5 the last two years in a row in our league!The biggest key to Brady, imo, is the Pats defense. The Pats gave up a whopping 25 passing touchdowns last year. I think they've addressed some of those problems but time will tell. The Pats are stacked, so I can see Brady only having to "play" 3 quarters most weeks whereas Manning, Bulger, Palmer, etc. are chuckin' it around til the bitter end.
 
They also play in a division void of high powered offenses. Jets, Buffalo, and Miami were all in the bottom half of the league in scoring.

 
msommer said:
IMHO - the Moss trade - even if Moss is effective - is not as positive for Randy as people believe but likely the big losers would be Ben Watson and Lawrence Maroney if he, say, catches 10 TD passes.
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Disagree on Watson. As a TE, he was the most talented pass-catcher the Pats had last year and thus the focus of most teams best defender. Who's going to matchup on Watson now that you have to check Moss and Stallworth? That's the classic BB mismatch. I don't know if he'll have a ton of catches, but I see a lot of big plays up the middle for Watson. It'll be very interesting to see how the Pats handle goal line plays. All these new toys are really going to cut into Mike Vrabel's production! :D
 
msommer said:
Brady the last 6 years:2001 413 att, 264 comp 2843 yards 28 TD 14 INT2002 601/373/3764/23/122003 527/317/3620/28/142004 474/288/3692/28/142005 530/334/4110/26/142006 516/319/3529/24/12Completion percentages (rounded off to nearest percent): 63, 62, 60, 61, 63, 62. ypa 6.9, 6.3, 6.9, 7.8, 7.8, 6.8The aberration seems to be the 2005 season, when ypa was up and so was attempts. Why did ypa drop in 2006? Don't forget they'll have to break in 3 new WRs as well - new to the system at least, which can;t make Mr. Brady's life a lot easier.While we are on the subject - for those that are high on NE receivers:The last two years NE had 11 players catch more than 10 balls. None had more than 5 TDs in 2006, none more than 4 in 2005. no 1000 yard seasons - although Branch was close in 2005 (998 yards).TO had a dramatic effect on McNabb - but mostly on completion percentage (which then pulls ypa up) - would Moss/Stallworth/Welker really make Brady a 70% completion passer?If they keep passing just over 500 times and MOss/Stallworts et al brings the ypa up to 7.8 we end close to 4,000 yards.Last year Brady scored 24 TDs and the RBs ran 20 TDs in. Gostkowski made 60 points on field goals, the defense scored about 20 points.For Brady to increase his TD total either the offense as a whole scores more, either some TDs are thrown as opposed to run in, the amount of field goals reduced (less opportunity) or a combination of them all.IMHO - the Moss trade - even if Moss is effective - is not as positive for Randy as people believe but likely the big losers would be Ben Watson and Lawrence Maroney if he, say, catches 10 TD passes.
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Some credit for the '06 ypa drop has to be Chad Jackson. Seemed like every week he played in missed a bomb right through his hands.
 
LHUCKS said:
The additions of Welker, Stallworth and Moss are very significant IMHO.
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:goodposting: BOOYA!Replacing your entire core of WRs is significant. These are the kinds of bombs LHUCKS drops to keep the staff on their toes. And yes, he's giving this away for free kids.(that being said, they go from the worst crop of starting WRs to at least average in 2007)
 
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Giggity said:
Replacing your entire core of WRs is significant. These are the kinds of bombs LHUCKS drops to keep the staff on their toes. And yes, he's giving this away for free kids.(that being said, they go from the worst crop of starting WRs to at least average in 2007)
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So he's got a member # of 27K plus, but he's familiar with my work...hmmmmmm.
 
For those who have been saying Brady is as close to a lock as anyone other than Manning, what about Brees... what is changing for him? And Palmer has been top 5 the past 2 seasons... what is changing for him?

As someone else posted, I could see a number of others finishing higher, including Manning, Palmer, Brees, Young, Vick, Bulger, and/or McNabb... depending on scoring system, of course, particularly for Young and Vick.

What I think this really means is that Brady just became overvalued. He has always gone higher than I was willing to take him, and he will now probably go a round sooner than in years past.

I think the improvements in the passing game plus the departure of Dillon really bodes well for Maroney... that's who I'd like to have in this offense.

 
Just Win Baby said:
For those who have been saying Brady is as close to a lock as anyone other than Manning, what about Brees... what is changing for him? And Palmer has been top 5 the past 2 seasons... what is changing for him?
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I would also take Brees and Palmer because their defenses are not as good. Let's not forget the Pats improved quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball.
 
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He's the #2 on my board right now for QBs with a shot at #1 IMO. As someone else pointed out, the fact that their defense will probably be so good is really his only negative.

 
Jason Wood said:
Barring injury I don't see how he's not the safest bet to finish among the top 5 not named Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer.
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Fixed! Yes I think that Brady could finnish top 5 and has a goot chance to do it. However I think it would be much more prudent to rank him in the 5-7 range where he is most likely to finish. For those saying he finished such and such in my league. Thats apples and rutabagas. He finished 7th in a league Im in. Lets just stick with FBG scoring so were on the same page.

Let someone else take him ahead of Bulger or Brees.

 
LHUCKS said:
Just Win Baby said:
For those who have been saying Brady is as close to a lock as anyone other than Manning, what about Brees... what is changing for him? And Palmer has been top 5 the past 2 seasons... what is changing for him?
Click to expand...
I would also take Brees and Palmer because their defenses are not as good. Let's not forget the Pats improved quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball.
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I think this is a bit presumptuous. Adelius was their huge acquisition. Meriweather will probably end up as a plus but he's still a rookie. Harrison, Vrabel, Bruschi, Seau, and Chad Scott are getting pretty old. Samuel could very well hold old and then where are they at CB?Don't get me wrong, they have a great defense, but their depth is not as strong as several years ago and they seem to always have a bunch of injuries. A couple injuries and they may not be quite so elite.
 
Jason Wood said:
Barring injury I don't see how he's not the safest bet to finish among the top 5 not named Peyton Manning.
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I will agree and disagree at the same time.He is the safest not named Manning. But his ranking as a "lock"?Its the safety of Brady that launches his ranking... not his probable/potential production.
 
David Yudkin said:
LHUCKS said:
Just Win Baby said:
For those who have been saying Brady is as close to a lock as anyone other than Manning, what about Brees... what is changing for him? And Palmer has been top 5 the past 2 seasons... what is changing for him?
Click to expand...
I would also take Brees and Palmer because their defenses are not as good. Let's not forget the Pats improved quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball.
Click to expand...
I think this is a bit presumptuous. Adelius was their huge acquisition. Meriweather will probably end up as a plus but he's still a rookie. Harrison, Vrabel, Bruschi, Seau, and Chad Scott are getting pretty old. Samuel could very well hold old and then where are they at CB?Don't get me wrong, they have a great defense, but their depth is not as strong as several years ago and they seem to always have a bunch of injuries. A couple injuries and they may not be quite so elite.
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I didn't say it was their greatest defense, I and most analyst just believe it's improved. Adding two starters to a group of 11 is a big deal, especially if they can stay more healthy this year.
 
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