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Player Spotlight: Ahman Green (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ahman Green, RB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Ahman Green Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
In PPR leagues he may break into the top 10...

270 Carries, 1040 Yards, 6 TD

65 Rec, 575 Yards, 4 TD

5 fumbles, 3 lost.

 
I'm a little more conservative than the previous poster on the receptions since we still haven't seen too much of Schaub and Kubiak together. I do believe however that Green will get the rock and be effective with it, hence the addtl yardage per carry.

290 carries 1175 yards 5 TDs

45 receptions 310 yards 2 TDs

2 FL

 
Count me as one of the guys who doesn't really think that Dayne is going to Hawk RZ touches...that should boost Green's TDs to 7-9. There is some concern if he fumbles in the RZ a couple of times and Kubiak does actually have some trust in Dayne....but I am inclined to think that won't be an issue (Green had no fumbles inside opp's 20 last season).

265-1113-9, and 34-241-1

 
I love Ahman Green this year as a sleeper RB1 and you can probably get him as a RB2 in the 2nd or 3rd round. He goes to a team with good run blocking and the Denver blocking scheme. And he has zero competition at all behind him. Plus Houston's defense will be better and he plays in an easy division to run on. Of course that is all based on him staying healthy which Im not sure he can do. Another negative is nobody in the NFL runs the screen pass as good as GB so I think he takes a hit in receiving yards. Ill say:

14 games, 252 car, 1130 yds, 8 tds, 28 rec, 220 yds, 1 td

 
ahman should have a couple of good games, but i don't know how consistent he'll be. i guess he could be a decent RB2 in PPR leagues, but i wouldn't want to depend on him. i see him as an RB3. i forsee a reduced workload for him that falls just short of RBBC.

13 games 225 880 3.9 6 36 270 7.5 1

 
Kubiak is a RBBC disiple.

Will he let Ahman carry the load? If so I like the first reponse. DD had good success with Houston, Green should too.

 
I think Green could do quite well in Houston if he can stay healthy. I doubt they're giving him $8 million in 07 to be part of an RBBC. Dayne will get his 3rd & 1s but Green carries the load here. Green had success in Green Bay's zone blocking scheme and I don't see any reason he can't repeat last year's success behind Houston's similar scheme. The 06 Texans threw to the HB a lot, it remains to be seen if the same will be true of Schaub but Green could be a good security blanket for him.

I expect a lot of the same 06 Ahman Green this season. Low-Mid RB1 upside.

15 games, 280 carries, 1100 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs

45 rec, 350 yds, 7.8 YPC, 2 TDs

 
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Nate said:
I think Green could do quite well in Houston if he can stay healthy. I doubt they're giving him $8 million in 07 to be part of an RBBC. Dayne will get his 3rd & 1s but Green carries the load here. Green had success in Green Bay's zone blocking scheme and I don't see any reason he can't repeat last year's success behind Houston's similar scheme. The 06 Texans threw to the HB a lot, it remains to be seen if the same will be true of Schaub but Green could be a good security blanket for him.I expect a lot of the same 06 Ahman Green this season. Low-Mid RB1 upside.15 games, 280 carries, 1100 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs45 rec, 350 yds, 7.8 YPC, 2 TDs
Click to expand...
1. salary generally doesn't dictate use. just because they paid WAY TOO much for him, doesn't mean he'll get all the carries.2. they threw to the backs alot because thats as far as carr could throw...problem solved.
 
BLOX said:
In PPR leagues he may break into the top 10...270 Carries, 1040 Yards, 6 TD65 Rec, 575 Yards, 4 TD5 fumbles, 3 lost.
Click to expand...
i traded for ahman this offseason with these numbers in mind. houstons line is still a mess, so he may struggle a bit more in the running game. i do believe 65-75 catches is well within the realm of possibility (assuming healthy).
 
KING said:
Nate said:
I think Green could do quite well in Houston if he can stay healthy. I doubt they're giving him $8 million in 07 to be part of an RBBC. Dayne will get his 3rd & 1s but Green carries the load here. Green had success in Green Bay's zone blocking scheme and I don't see any reason he can't repeat last year's success behind Houston's similar scheme. The 06 Texans threw to the HB a lot, it remains to be seen if the same will be true of Schaub but Green could be a good security blanket for him.I expect a lot of the same 06 Ahman Green this season. Low-Mid RB1 upside.15 games, 280 carries, 1100 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs45 rec, 350 yds, 7.8 YPC, 2 TDs
Click to expand...
1. salary generally doesn't dictate use. just because they paid WAY TOO much for him, doesn't mean he'll get all the carries.2. they threw to the backs alot because thats as far as carr could throw...problem solved.
Click to expand...
1. Fair enough, but I'm only prediction 18-19 carries per game for Green. You're prediction is 17-18... how many carries do you think the remaining pitiful backfield is going to get exactly?2. How many good receivers do you think are on the Texans exactly? AJ will be drawing a lot of coverage and Daniels is really the only other option on that offense. I think Green will see a lot of balls tossed his way just because there's nobody else to throw to.
 
Ahman Green in Houston may actually be a pretty good fit. If given the chance, Houston will run the ball and keep it on the ground. David Carr also likes to use his running backs as a receiver, much like Domanic Davis did when he was healthy. Ahman Green has shown that he can catch the ball out of the backfield but what we don't know is if he'll stay healthy for an entire season.

1050 yards rushing and 7 td's

35 receptions for 350 yards and 2 td's

 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
Ahman Green in Houston may actually be a pretty good fit. If given the chance, Houston will run the ball and keep it on the ground. David Carr also likes to use his running backs as a receiver, much like Domanic Davis did when he was healthy. Ahman Green has shown that he can catch the ball out of the backfield but what we don't know is if he'll stay healthy for an entire season. 1050 yards rushing and 7 td's35 receptions for 350 yards and 2 td's
Click to expand...
I think you forgot that Schaub has the starting gig in Houston...
 
Mike Sherman running the offense bodes well for Ahman, in that he knows what Green can do, and Green certainly knows the system. That said, Green is past his prime and going to a team with a questionable offensive line [at best]. Can Sherman turn water into wine? I'm not so sure.

 
Jason Wood said:
Mike Sherman running the offense bodes well for Ahman, in that he knows what Green can do, and Green certainly knows the system. That said, Green is past his prime and going to a team with a questionable offensive line [at best].
Click to expand...
It doesn't look like many are projecting wine, more like wine coolers.
 
LHUCKS said:
redman said:
Green couldn't keep Samkon Gado on the bench in 2005, and he won't do it this year either.
Click to expand...
He was battling injury.
Click to expand...
I think he is a solid bet for 260+ carries, with upside to 280-300 if healthy for the full season. On the other hand, I don't see him besting last year's 4.0 YPC behind that Texans offensive line [although they do get to play the Colts twice :mellow: ]. He's always been an able receiver and I can't imagine Matt Schaub won't check down plenty to his outlets, so Green looks like a lock for 40-50 receptions. In terms of total TDs, he netted 6 last year in Green Bay; will he get decidedly more opportunity in Houston? I don't see it.
Rushes -- 272 carries
YPR -- 3.85
Rush Yards -- 1,047 yards
Rush TDs -- 5
Receptions -- 48
YPC -- 7.5
Receiving Yards -- 360 yards
Receiving TDs -- 0
Total Yards -- 1,407
Total TDs -- 5

Fantasy Points -- 171
 
I'd say about 280-1150-7/8 and 40-325-1. He'll be good value due to the Houston factor but with a new QB that will surely be an improvement over Carr he could have a decent season. He's got no one behind him on a team that likes to run the ball and is a good receiver out of the backfield. The biggest negatives I see are the Houston O-line and his recent injury history.

He'll probably put up Benson like numbers several rounds later.

 
Jason Wood said:
LHUCKS said:
redman said:
Green couldn't keep Samkon Gado on the bench in 2005, and he won't do it this year either.
Click to expand...
He was battling injury.
Click to expand...
In terms of total TDs, he netted 6 last year in Green Bay; will he get decidedly more opportunity in Houston? I don't see it.
Click to expand...
Houston had 13 rush Td's last year compared to 9 for GB. I probably don't see a big improvement TD wise for Houston but they have much more of a running philosophy toward the goal line (probably out of necessity) compared to GB. If Schaub is an improvement over Carr (which I think he will be) they could get a few more TD's. If Green is the primary RB as I expect him to be he's got a good shot at 7-8 TD's, maybe a couple more.
 
Banger said:
Jason Wood said:
LHUCKS said:
redman said:
Green couldn't keep Samkon Gado on the bench in 2005, and he won't do it this year either.
Click to expand...
He was battling injury.
Click to expand...
In terms of total TDs, he netted 6 last year in Green Bay; will he get decidedly more opportunity in Houston? I don't see it.
Click to expand...
Houston had 13 rush Td's last year compared to 9 for GB. I probably don't see a big improvement TD wise for Houston but they have much more of a running philosophy toward the goal line (probably out of necessity) compared to GB. If Schaub is an improvement over Carr (which I think he will be) they could get a few more TD's. If Green is the primary RB as I expect him to be he's got a good shot at 7-8 TD's, maybe a couple more.
Click to expand...
That's fair :thumbup:
 
Jason Wood said:
LHUCKS said:
redman said:
Green couldn't keep Samkon Gado on the bench in 2005, and he won't do it this year either.
Click to expand...
He was battling injury.
Click to expand...
I think he is a solid bet for 260+ carries, with upside to 280-300 if healthy for the full season. On the other hand, I don't see him besting last year's 4.0 YPC behind that Texans offensive line [although they do get to play the Colts twice :unsure: ]. He's always been an able receiver and I can't imagine Matt Schaub won't check down plenty to his outlets, so Green looks like a lock for 40-50 receptions. In terms of total TDs, he netted 6 last year in Green Bay; will he get decidedly more opportunity in Houston? I don't see it.
Rushes -- 272 carries
YPR -- 3.85
Rush Yards -- 1,047 yards
Rush TDs -- 5
Receptions -- 48
YPC -- 7.5
Receiving Yards -- 360 yards
Receiving TDs -- 0
Total Yards -- 1,407
Total TDs -- 5

Fantasy Points -- 171
Click to expand...
Dayne was able to average 4.05ypc, Gado at 4.02 and Lundy slightly less at 3.84 behind that line last year. I would assume Ahman could average at least as good as Dayne.
 
Banger said:
I'd say about 280-1150-7/8 and 40-325-1. He'll be good value due to the Houston factor but with a new QB that will surely be an improvement over Carr he could have a decent season. He's got no one behind him on a team that likes to run the ball and is a good receiver out of the backfield. The biggest negatives I see are the Houston O-line and his recent injury history. He'll probably put up Benson like numbers several rounds later.
Click to expand...
I agree with you, Banger. :rolleyes: As a Green owner in 2 dynasty leagues, I was hoping like heck that the Texans resisted the temptation of picking up a RB early in the draft. Well, Hou decided to not pick a RB at all and I think that speaks volumes for their faith in Green (misplaced or not). Green is easily the most talented RB on this team and I would also say his situation has improved from what he had in GB. Zone blocking and more of a commitment to the run as well as an emphasis on running in the redzone more. The only really issue with Green is that he is getting a bit long in the tooth and has battled some injuries of late. If he can stay on the field however, I see a very solid RB2 season with upside for RB1.Rushing: 290 atts., 1175 yds, 8 TDsReceiving: 42 rec., 325 yds, 1 TDHappy Green owner here! :lmao:
 
Ahman ran behind a poor offensive line last year in GB (new starters at C and both guard positions). His new team, Houston, also is not known for their stellar line play, and Houston will also be breaking in a new QB to run Kubiak’s offense. Green should see a slight decrease in his production from last year due to a change in teams, situation (new QB learning the offense), and natural regression due to age (turned 30 this year).

246 carries 969Yds 7TD 44 Rec 335 Yds 1TD

 
Background/Profile: I'm still pretty mad at Ahman Green. Back in the summer of 2002, as I prepared for my second-ever fantasy draft, I fell in love with the multi-talented running back from Nebraska. Ahman was coming off of a season in which he compiled nearly 2000 all purpose yards and 11 touchdowns, and I was armed with the second pick in my draft. My mancrush on Ahman reached epic proportions, and on draft day, I practically moonwalked to the draft board to bring Green to my team. I just knew that Ahman was destined for big things.

Well, it turned out I was a year early. Though Ahman wasn't exactly a bust, finishing as RB13, what really enraged me was his performance one year later, when he went off to the tune of nearly 1900 rushing yards, 2200 all purpose yards, and twenty total TD. Ever since then, I've had a bit of a grudge against the guy. Irrational? Yes. Did that matter to me? Uh, no.

However, it might be time to kiss and make up with Ahman. There are enough signs to suggest that Green could turn out to be a VERY nice value pick in drafts this year. To wit:

Green enters the season as the undisputed starter in Houston, as the team failed to bring in any competition of note. Further, while there remains some talk of using Ron Dayne at the goal line, Dayne has failed in this role on numerous occasions. It is therefore reasonable to expect Green to get the goal line looks, significantly increasing his fantasy value.
Though Houston RB only produced 1438 rushing yards last year (25th in the NFL), 916 of those yards came in the second half of the season, and Houston's average YPC increased from 3.9 in the first half of the season to 4.2 in the second. Could this be a sign of improved line play in Houston? Perhaps.
Green has finished in the top 15 RB in 6 of the last 7 years.
Ahman looked surprisingly good at times last year, and displayed that he was a still an asset in the passing game by catching 46 balls.
Ahman's not quite as old as you might think, as he won't turn 31 until next February.That's not to say that there isn't any risk. Consider the following:

Ahman has had injury issues, missing at least some portion of the season in 4 of the last 5 years.
Houston didn't do much of anything to bolster its offensive line play, which could make finding running lanes difficult.
The addition of Matt Schaub brings some uncertainty to the overall offensive picture, and if he struggles, Ahman could be looking at a lot of stacked boxes.Projection: I see a lot of potential value here. While I think it is unrealistic to expect Green to have anything more than 300 carries (a number he's hit only once since 2002), I do expect him to touch the ball a LOT. In addition to about 285 carries, Green should be a force in the passing game (Houston ranked 9th in targets to RB last year). Further, if the platoon of Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, and Samkon Gado could manage about four yards a carry, I expect that Green can do (slightly) better. Finally, I don't really see any significant goal line vulture. In sum, Green gets official ***VALUE PICK*** status from this writer.

2007 Ahman Green Projection -- 285 carries, 1,197 yards, 8 TD rushing / 51 catches, 412 yds, 1 TD rec.

 
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Thom Yorke said:
Background/Profile: I'm still pretty mad at Ahman Green. Back in the summer of 2002, as I prepared for my second-ever fantasy draft, I fell in love with the multi-talented running back from Nebraska. Ahman was coming off of a season in which he compiled nearly 2000 all purpose yards and 11 touchdowns, and I was armed with the second pick in my draft. My mancrush on Ahman reached epic proportions, and on draft day, I practically moonwalked to the draft board to bring Green to my team. I just knew that Ahman was destined for big things.

Well, it turned out I was a year early. Though Ahman wasn't exactly a bust, finishing as RB13, what really enraged me was his performance one year later, when he went off to the tune of nearly 1900 rushing yards, 2200 all purpose yards, and twenty total TD. Ever since then, I've had a bit of a grudge against the guy. Irrational? Yes. Did that matter to me? Uh, no.

However, it might be time to kiss and make up with Ahman. There are enough signs to suggest that Green could turn out to be a VERY nice value pick in drafts this year. To wit:

Green enters the season as the undisputed starter in Houston, as the team failed to bring in any competition of note. Further, while there remains some talk of using Ron Dayne at the goal line, Dayne has failed in this role on numerous occasions. It is therefore reasonable to expect Green to get the goal line looks, significantly increasing his fantasy value.
Though Houston RB only produced 1438 rushing yards last year (25th in the NFL), 916 of those yards came in the second half of the season, and Houston's average YPC increased from 3.9 in the first half of the season to 4.2 in the second. Could this be a sign of improved line play in Houston? Perhaps.
Green has finished in the top 15 RB in 6 of the last 7 years.
Ahman looked surprisingly good at times last year, and displayed that he was a still an asset in the passing game by catching 46 balls.
Ahman's not quite as old as you might think, as he won't turn 31 until next February.That's not to say that there isn't any risk. Consider the following:

Ahman has had injury issues, missing at least some portion of the season in 4 of the last 5 years.
Houston didn't do much of anything to bolster its offensive line play, which could make finding running lanes difficult.
The addition of Matt Schaub brings some uncertainty to the overall offensive picture, and if he struggles, Ahman could be looking at a lot of stacked boxes.Projection: I see a lot of potential value here. While I think it is unrealistic to expect Green to have anything more than 300 carries (a number he's hit only once since 2002), I do expect him to touch the ball a LOT. In addition to about 285 carries, Green should be a force in the passing game (Houston ranked 9th in targets to RB last year). Further, if the platoon of Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, and Samkon Gado could manage about four yards a carry, I expect that Green can do (slightly) better. Finally, I don't really see any significant goal line vulture. In sum, Green gets official ***VALUE PICK*** status from this writer.

2007 Ahman Green Projection -- 285 carries, 1,197 yards, 8 TD rushing / 51 catches, 412 yds, 1 TD rec.
Click to expand...
:confused: Thom
 
Banger said:
Thom Yorke said:
Background/Profile: I'm still pretty mad at Ahman Green. Back in the summer of 2002, as I prepared for my second-ever fantasy draft, I fell in love with the multi-talented running back from Nebraska. Ahman was coming off of a season in which he compiled nearly 2000 all purpose yards and 11 touchdowns, and I was armed with the second pick in my draft. My mancrush on Ahman reached epic proportions, and on draft day, I practically moonwalked to the draft board to bring Green to my team. I just knew that Ahman was destined for big things.

Well, it turned out I was a year early. Though Ahman wasn't exactly a bust, finishing as RB13, what really enraged me was his performance one year later, when he went off to the tune of nearly 1900 rushing yards, 2200 all purpose yards, and twenty total TD. Ever since then, I've had a bit of a grudge against the guy. Irrational? Yes. Did that matter to me? Uh, no.

However, it might be time to kiss and make up with Ahman. There are enough signs to suggest that Green could turn out to be a VERY nice value pick in drafts this year. To wit:

Green enters the season as the undisputed starter in Houston, as the team failed to bring in any competition of note. Further, while there remains some talk of using Ron Dayne at the goal line, Dayne has failed in this role on numerous occasions. It is therefore reasonable to expect Green to get the goal line looks, significantly increasing his fantasy value.
Though Houston RB only produced 1438 rushing yards last year (25th in the NFL), 916 of those yards came in the second half of the season, and Houston's average YPC increased from 3.9 in the first half of the season to 4.2 in the second. Could this be a sign of improved line play in Houston? Perhaps.
Green has finished in the top 15 RB in 6 of the last 7 years.
Ahman looked surprisingly good at times last year, and displayed that he was a still an asset in the passing game by catching 46 balls.
Ahman's not quite as old as you might think, as he won't turn 31 until next February.That's not to say that there isn't any risk. Consider the following:

Ahman has had injury issues, missing at least some portion of the season in 4 of the last 5 years.
Houston didn't do much of anything to bolster its offensive line play, which could make finding running lanes difficult.
The addition of Matt Schaub brings some uncertainty to the overall offensive picture, and if he struggles, Ahman could be looking at a lot of stacked boxes.Projection: I see a lot of potential value here. While I think it is unrealistic to expect Green to have anything more than 300 carries (a number he's hit only once since 2002), I do expect him to touch the ball a LOT. In addition to about 285 carries, Green should be a force in the passing game (Houston ranked 9th in targets to RB last year). Further, if the platoon of Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, and Samkon Gado could manage about four yards a carry, I expect that Green can do (slightly) better. Finally, I don't really see any significant goal line vulture. In sum, Green gets official ***VALUE PICK*** status from this writer.

2007 Ahman Green Projection -- 285 carries, 1,197 yards, 8 TD rushing / 51 catches, 412 yds, 1 TD rec.
Click to expand...
:yawn: Thom
Click to expand...
Thanks. Ahman is one of my favorite players this year, despite our unfortunate history together :hot:
 
Thom Yorke said:
Background/Profile: I'm still pretty mad at Ahman Green. Back in the summer of 2002, as I prepared for my second-ever fantasy draft, I fell in love with the multi-talented running back from Nebraska. Ahman was coming off of a season in which he compiled nearly 2000 all purpose yards and 11 touchdowns, and I was armed with the second pick in my draft. My mancrush on Ahman reached epic proportions, and on draft day, I practically moonwalked to the draft board to bring Green to my team. I just knew that Ahman was destined for big things.

Well, it turned out I was a year early. Though Ahman wasn't exactly a bust, finishing as RB13, what really enraged me was his performance one year later, when he went off to the tune of nearly 1900 rushing yards, 2200 all purpose yards, and twenty total TD. Ever since then, I've had a bit of a grudge against the guy. Irrational? Yes. Did that matter to me? Uh, no.

However, it might be time to kiss and make up with Ahman. There are enough signs to suggest that Green could turn out to be a VERY nice value pick in drafts this year. To wit:

Green enters the season as the undisputed starter in Houston, as the team failed to bring in any competition of note. Further, while there remains some talk of using Ron Dayne at the goal line, Dayne has failed in this role on numerous occasions. It is therefore reasonable to expect Green to get the goal line looks, significantly increasing his fantasy value.
Though Houston RB only produced 1438 rushing yards last year (25th in the NFL), 916 of those yards came in the second half of the season, and Houston's average YPC increased from 3.9 in the first half of the season to 4.2 in the second. Could this be a sign of improved line play in Houston? Perhaps.
Green has finished in the top 15 RB in 6 of the last 7 years.
Ahman looked surprisingly good at times last year, and displayed that he was a still an asset in the passing game by catching 46 balls.
Ahman's not quite as old as you might think, as he won't turn 31 until next February.That's not to say that there isn't any risk. Consider the following:

Ahman has had injury issues, missing at least some portion of the season in 4 of the last 5 years.
Houston didn't do much of anything to bolster its offensive line play, which could make finding running lanes difficult.
The addition of Matt Schaub brings some uncertainty to the overall offensive picture, and if he struggles, Ahman could be looking at a lot of stacked boxes.Projection: I see a lot of potential value here. While I think it is unrealistic to expect Green to have anything more than 300 carries (a number he's hit only once since 2002), I do expect him to touch the ball a LOT. In addition to about 285 carries, Green should be a force in the passing game (Houston ranked 9th in targets to RB last year). Further, if the platoon of Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, and Samkon Gado could manage about four yards a carry, I expect that Green can do (slightly) better. Finally, I don't really see any significant goal line vulture. In sum, Green gets official ***VALUE PICK*** status from this writer.

2007 Ahman Green Projection -- 285 carries, 1,197 yards, 8 TD rushing / 51 catches, 412 yds, 1 TD rec.
Click to expand...
Just picked him up at 7.07 in a Dynasty Draft...I hope you're right.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Thom Yorke said:
Background/Profile: I'm still pretty mad at Ahman Green. Back in the summer of 2002, as I prepared for my second-ever fantasy draft, I fell in love with the multi-talented running back from Nebraska. Ahman was coming off of a season in which he compiled nearly 2000 all purpose yards and 11 touchdowns, and I was armed with the second pick in my draft. My mancrush on Ahman reached epic proportions, and on draft day, I practically moonwalked to the draft board to bring Green to my team. I just knew that Ahman was destined for big things.

Well, it turned out I was a year early. Though Ahman wasn't exactly a bust, finishing as RB13, what really enraged me was his performance one year later, when he went off to the tune of nearly 1900 rushing yards, 2200 all purpose yards, and twenty total TD. Ever since then, I've had a bit of a grudge against the guy. Irrational? Yes. Did that matter to me? Uh, no.

However, it might be time to kiss and make up with Ahman. There are enough signs to suggest that Green could turn out to be a VERY nice value pick in drafts this year. To wit:

Green enters the season as the undisputed starter in Houston, as the team failed to bring in any competition of note. Further, while there remains some talk of using Ron Dayne at the goal line, Dayne has failed in this role on numerous occasions. It is therefore reasonable to expect Green to get the goal line looks, significantly increasing his fantasy value.
Though Houston RB only produced 1438 rushing yards last year (25th in the NFL), 916 of those yards came in the second half of the season, and Houston's average YPC increased from 3.9 in the first half of the season to 4.2 in the second. Could this be a sign of improved line play in Houston? Perhaps.
Green has finished in the top 15 RB in 6 of the last 7 years.
Ahman looked surprisingly good at times last year, and displayed that he was a still an asset in the passing game by catching 46 balls.
Ahman's not quite as old as you might think, as he won't turn 31 until next February.That's not to say that there isn't any risk. Consider the following:

Ahman has had injury issues, missing at least some portion of the season in 4 of the last 5 years.
Houston didn't do much of anything to bolster its offensive line play, which could make finding running lanes difficult.
The addition of Matt Schaub brings some uncertainty to the overall offensive picture, and if he struggles, Ahman could be looking at a lot of stacked boxes.Projection: I see a lot of potential value here. While I think it is unrealistic to expect Green to have anything more than 300 carries (a number he's hit only once since 2002), I do expect him to touch the ball a LOT. In addition to about 285 carries, Green should be a force in the passing game (Houston ranked 9th in targets to RB last year). Further, if the platoon of Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, and Samkon Gado could manage about four yards a carry, I expect that Green can do (slightly) better. Finally, I don't really see any significant goal line vulture. In sum, Green gets official ***VALUE PICK*** status from this writer.

2007 Ahman Green Projection -- 285 carries, 1,197 yards, 8 TD rushing / 51 catches, 412 yds, 1 TD rec.
Click to expand...
Just picked him up at 7.07 in a Dynasty Draft...I hope you're right.
Click to expand...
I'm not much of a dynasty guy, but I think you'll be happy this year :thumbdown:
 
For all those bashing the Houston line, it showed remarkable improvement last year under Kubiak. Their 2 3rd round picks look like keepers, if Spencer can recover from his leg injury. Even if he doesn't, they did sign Black this offseason. While he's not a great player, he is a legitimate starter in this league. All in all, the line greatly improved last year to be about the bottom of the middle. Some further improvement is not out of the question and then line will be middle of the pack.

 
Are we evaluating the same player? IMO, the projections in here are a bit on the lofty side, with several folks setting the bar in the 280-290 carry range with as many as 65 receptions. I know Domanick Davis did very well in Houston for fantasy purposes several years ago, but this is a different team at this point. Here's what I see . . .

- Now 30, Green's best years are most likely behind him.

- He's battled injuries in 4 of the past 5 seasons, each with varying impact on his production

- In the past 3 seasons, he's been in the 250-260 carry range ignoring the year he missed much of the season.

- In the past 2 seasons, his ypc has been a modest 3.8. His ypc prior to that was 4.7. Injuries certainly played a role in that, but the question is whether the injuries have caused him to lose a step or if the injuries have gone away and he's back to the uber back form of 2003.

- In the final 8 games of 2006, Green posted a very pedestrian 3.4 ypc.

- His reception totals were steadily decling before a minor uptick last year.

- His TD totals have dropped dramatically. From 2000-2003, Green scored once every 27 touches. Since then, he's scored once every 50.5 touches.

- Both the Packers and Texans were Bottom 10 rushing teams last year.

My theoretical question is why we should expect a 30-year-old RB that's been plagued with injuries (some minor, some more severe) to move to the Texans with an equally so-so OL, an unproven QB, and basically only one established receiving threat and expect Green to both play more and play better. Unless Schaub and the Texans show a lot more in the passing game, Green may face more guys in the box then he ever saw in GB when he had gunslinger Favre under center. Other than Andre Johnson, no other Texans player has had more than 40 receptions in a season before. (I see Ron Dayne coming in at the goal line.)

240 carries-3.75 ypc-900 rushing yards-5 rushing TD

40 receptions-240 receiving yards-0 receiving TD

 
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I just don't see AG being better in HOU than he was in GB. Not saying he can't but it just seems improbable.

 
NorrisB said:
Ahman Green is going to a much better offensive line then he had in GB
Click to expand...
:goodposting: :( I think Ahman Green plays very well in a 10 game basis.

175 carries 725 yards

30 receptions 240 yards

8 TDs

Players will be very happy with him a starter while he is starting, and in the end will be happy with the overall production from the position if they have his back-ups to fill in on the 2 or 3 games that he is "out". But it will hurt during those games he is banged up, knocked out or slowed.

 
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David Yudkin said:
Are we evaluating the same player? IMO, the projections in here are a bit on the lofty side, with several folks setting the bar in the 280-290 carry range with as many as 65 receptions. I know Domanick Davis did very well in Houston for fantasy purposes several years ago, but this is a different team at this point. Here's what I see . . .- Now 30, Green's best years are most likely behind him.- He's battled injuries in 4 of the past 5 seasons, each with varying impact on his production- In the past 3 seasons, he's been in the 250-260 carry range ignoring the year he missed much of the season.- In the past 2 seasons, his ypc has been a modest 3.8. His ypc prior to that was 4.7. Injuries certainly played a role in that, but the question is whether the injuries have caused him to lose a step or if the injuries have gone away and he's back to the uber back form of 2003.- In the final 8 games of 2006, Green posted a very pedestrian 3.4 ypc. - His reception totals were steadily decling before a minor uptick last year.- His TD totals have dropped dramatically. From 2000-2003, Green scored once every 27 touches. Since then, he's scored once every 50.5 touches.- Both the Packers and Texans were Bottom 10 rushing teams last year.My theoretical question is why we should expect a 30-year-old RB that's been plagued with injuries (some minor, some more severe) to move to the Texans with an equally so-so OL, an unproven QB, and basically only one established receving threat and expect Green to both play more and play better. Unless Schaub and the Texans show a lot more in the passing game, Green may face more guys in the box then he ever saw in GB when he had gunslinger Favre under center. Other than Andre Johnson, no other Texans player has had more than 40 receptions in a season before. (I see Ron Dayne coming in at the goal line.)240 carries-3.75 ypc-900 rushing yards-5 rushing TD40 receptions-240 receiving yards-0 receiving TD
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
(David Yudkin @ May 5 2007, 09:26 PM) *Are we evaluating the same player? IMO, the projections in here are a bit on the lofty side, with several folks setting the bar in the 280-290 carry range with as many as 65 receptions. I know Domanick Davis did very well in Houston for fantasy purposes several years ago, but this is a different team at this point. Here's what I see . . .- Now 30, Green's best years are most likely behind him.- He's battled injuries in 4 of the past 5 seasons, each with varying impact on his production- In the past 3 seasons, he's been in the 250-260 carry range ignoring the year he missed much of the season.- In the past 2 seasons, his ypc has been a modest 3.8. His ypc prior to that was 4.7. Injuries certainly played a role in that, but the question is whether the injuries have caused him to lose a step or if the injuries have gone away and he's back to the uber back form of 2003.- In the final 8 games of 2006, Green posted a very pedestrian 3.4 ypc.- His reception totals were steadily decling before a minor uptick last year.- His TD totals have dropped dramatically. From 2000-2003, Green scored once every 27 touches. Since then, he's scored once every 50.5 touches.- Both the Packers and Texans were Bottom 10 rushing teams last year.My theoretical question is why we should expect a 30-year-old RB that's been plagued with injuries (some minor, some more severe) to move to the Texans with an equally so-so OL, an unproven QB, and basically only one established receving threat and expect Green to both play more and play better. Unless Schaub and the Texans show a lot more in the passing game, Green may face more guys in the box then he ever saw in GB when he had gunslinger Favre under center. Other than Andre Johnson, no other Texans player has had more than 40 receptions in a season before. (I see Ron Dayne coming in at the goal line.)240 carries-3.75 ypc-900 rushing yards-5 rushing TD40 receptions-240 receiving yards-0 receiving TD
Click to expand...
So sub-par talents like Dayne, Gado and Lundy are all able to manage a better YPA in Hou than Green can? :rolleyes: Sorry, but that seems a bit absurd to me. Especially when you consider that Green had a YPA of 4.0 in what was a worse running situation last year. Hou IS a better run blocking team than GB.The only reason no other player on the Hou roster did not have 40+ receptions last year is because Hou was so ineptly talented at the RB position and had to platoon about 4 different guys. If they had a RB worth playing week in and week out (which they do now with Green who is vastly more able and talented than the scrubs on roster) that RB would have easily broken that 40 reception mark.Another issue I have with this is you place Green at only 240 rushing attempts when Green had 266 last year while missing 2 games. Even if you predict an injury for Green this year, it sure seems like you must be predicting a rather significant one to have his attempts to drop that much. Green averaged 19 carries per game last year. I'd say there is less competition in Hou, and a highler likelihood of running the ball as well. Yet this number is to drop? Based on your projection and Green simply getting the same amount of carries per game as he did in GB, that means you have him slated to play in just over 12 games this year. I hate to say it, but predicting injuries is a battle you will loose just about every time.I think most everyone has acknowledged the injury risk with Green in this thread. Still, they make their projections based on a full season. Green managed 14 games last season and has none of the question marks regarding his health to start this season as he has the past few.
 
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I think my projections for him this season pretty much jive with Tremblay's projections. I think he might get roughly 10-20 more carries over the season, however I believe 44 receptions is a reasonable number, and IMO may be near to the floor for how many catches he'll have, especially if/when Johnson is double covered - Green will IMO prove to be a much better check down option then RBs rostered by Houston last season.

Naturally my main concern with Green is durability, if he can stay healthy I would say he'd be a decent RB2, and in PPR an above average RB2; he's actually one I am targeting in a PPR league, since I think I should be able to snag him pretty easily near the end of the 3rd round, or early 4th (14 team league).

His O-Line is my main concern, but the line he had in Green Bay last year was nothing to write home about.

257 rushes, 1010 Yds, 7 TDs, 44 recepts, 310 Yds, 2 TDs

I'm am somewhat scared to rely on him as my RB2, but depending on what WRs may be available in earlier rounds, he may offer good value to a patient owner waiting for a later RB.

 
In a 12-team league, I got Ahman Green with the 5th pick in the 4th round. My first three picks were:

RB Frank Gore

QB Peyton Manning (I did not want to take him, but at 20, I could not let him fall any further)

WR Lee Evans

I was happy to get Green there. I am not expecting top 10 numbers, but I think he can be a top 15 RB or so. IIRC, he was the 22nd or 23rd RB taken in the draft.

Thoughts?

 
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Ghost Rider said:
In a 12-team league, I got Ahman Green with the 5th pick in the 4th round. My first three picks were:RB Frank GoreQB Peyton Manning (I did not want to take him, but at 20, I could not let him fall any further)WR Lee EvansI was happy to get Green there. I am not expecting top 10 numbers, but I think he can be a top 15 RB or so. IIRC, he was the 22nd or 23rd RB taken in the draft. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
You got him at the right spot and I think he's a steal this year. He was the #15 last year while missing 2 games so if he stays healthy I expect similar numbers. I think everyone that gets him will be very happy with their 4th round pick.
 
Ghost Rider said:
In a 12-team league, I got Ahman Green with the 5th pick in the 4th round. My first three picks were:RB Frank GoreQB Peyton Manning (I did not want to take him, but at 20, I could not let him fall any further)WR Lee EvansI was happy to get Green there. I am not expecting top 10 numbers, but I think he can be a top 15 RB or so. IIRC, he was the 22nd or 23rd RB taken in the draft. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
He finished as the #15 RB in non-PPR with standard scoring. No reason he can't replicate or improve on that this year as he appears to be more healthy.
 
I too am surprised at how far Green has fallen in some drafts. In my PPR league, I got him at 5.08! I picked up Bush and Ronnie Brown in the first 2 rounds....not great, I know, but decent. Then I got Roy Williams and Andre Johnson.....hopefully Ahman can come up big if one of my other RBs doesn't produce.

 
I can't see him getting better then last year.. He wore down fast 2nd half and not getting any younger..

225 788 5TD's 44 325 1TD.

People who draft him as their #2 better have a solid #3 for the 2nd half..

 
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