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Player Spotlight: Willis McGahee (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Willis McGahee Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
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Its easy to be high on McGahee.

He's never played with a team as good as the Ravens, nor with as good an O-line. He's a better RB than Jamal Lewis, and thus should put up much better numbers...if he's as good as he's been saying he is.

Jamal got 77% of the RB carries last year. Assuming the same ratio, I see McGahee at

314-1350. 4.3, 10 tds. 35-300, 1td.

 
i've been pimping mcgahee for a breakout for 3 yrs now. this is the last time.

331 att

1420 yds

8 tds

34 rec

328 yds

1 td

 
There wasn't much to like about the Ravens running game last year, they were 25th in rushing yards and they were 31st on a ypc basis. Their OLine was a major problem last year and Baltimore spent two of it's 3 day 1 picks on lineman so there's reason for some optimism that the line play may improve.

Despite their awful running production they were ranked 11th in carries and they were #1 in time of possession. Their fantastic defense is still in tact, the Ravens love to run the ball, they will get plenty of opportunities and the RB's behind McGahee are absolutely no threat to take carries/touch's away. Right after McGahee was signed Billick was talking about involving more in the passing game and since Baltimore really doesn't have a good 3rd down back I think there's a good chance that McGahee may end up being one of the dwindling 3 down backs left.

McGahee is a bit of risk due to the line (but there is hope there), prior attitude (may change with some real leadership on the Ravens), and past production issues but the stars may be aligned for a very good season this year.

Prediction: 350-1400-11 35-300-1

 
I like McGahee alot. I know alot of people on this board dont like him but I think they need to realize hes not a breakaway back anymore. Hes more of a RB in the mold of Edge. He will get the tough yards. He now plays on a great team that loves to run the ball. He will get a ton of carries and all the goalline looks. I love him as a RB1 this year.

320 att, 1300 yds, 10 tds, 30 rec, 250 yds, 1 tds

 
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One of the more interesting RB's to project this season. Baltimore's O-line isn't as good as it once was and counting on rookie O-linemen to improve the line is risky. I think he'll run hard and do as well if not better than what Jamal Lewis has done recently.

1100 yards rushing

9 rd's

25 receptions for 250 yards rushing and 1 td

 
330 carries for 1295 yards rushing, 9 TDs.

22 receptions for 170 yards, 0 TDs.

I think that prediction is about where McGahee maxes out as well. I'm even a little hesitant to give him that many carries and yards because I just don't think that his body can handle it. He got dinged up in Buffalo every single year and started losing carries in the second half of each season. I don't think that he can carry a full workload for an entire 16 game season. He's definitely not a guy that could tote the rock 400 times, that's for sure. And without any breakaway speed (just 4 runs over 20 yards in each of the last 2 seasons) I just don't see McGahee as an elite back.

I'm also suprised at the notion from Billick that McGahee could be a pass catching threat. He certainly hasn't demonstrated that so far in his career. In fact, one of the reasons that the Bills decided that they wanted to go in another direction was that they wanted a RB that could be a larger factor in the passing game.

 
Based on what they showed against the Colts, particularly with McNair's ineffectiveness, I think teams will load up in the box against the Ravens. Willis is better than Jamal Lewis, to be sure, but I think that team will really struggle in the red zone especially. Ergo, I see him with a low YPC and not that many TDs.

300 carries, 1170 yards, 6 TDs

35 rec, 315 yds, 1 TD

You could do worse, but you could do better. Just depends on where you are in the draft as to whether he'll be value.

 
i have mcgahee in one of my dynasty legues, and i'd love to see him blow up this year. i've tried to trade him since mid way thru '05. best offer i got was aaron stecker, and a piece of used gum (not even britney's)

330 1300 3.9 10 and 22 154 7.0 0

 
Im no Raven fan and Im no McGahee fan... but the synergy between these two could be huge. I like his ceiling.

I didnt want him last year... but by the time we get to the drafts Im expecting him to be in locked into the first round...

325 carries

1330 yards (4.1)

14 TDs

25 catches

170 yards

1 TD

 
Marc Faletti said:
Based on what they showed against the Colts, particularly with McNair's ineffectiveness, I think teams will load up in the box against the Ravens. Willis is better than Jamal Lewis, to be sure, but I think that team will really struggle in the red zone especially. Ergo, I see him with a low YPC and not that many TDs.300 carries, 1170 yards, 6 TDs35 rec, 315 yds, 1 TDYou could do worse, but you could do better. Just depends on where you are in the draft as to whether he'll be value.
Click to expand...
Looking at the schedule it looks like they have a pretty favorable schedule run defense wise Sep 10 @Cincinnati (15) Sep 16 N.Y. Jets (23) Sep 23 Arizona (16) Sep 30 @Cleveland (29) Oct 7 @San Francisco (19) Oct 14 St. Louis (31) Oct 21 @Buffalo (28) Week 8 BYE Nov 5 @Pittsburgh (3) Nov 11 Cincinnati (15) Nov 18 Cleveland (29) Nov 25 @San Diego (7) Dec 3 New England (5) Dec 9 Indianapolis (32) Dec 16 @Miami (8) Dec 23 @Seattle (21) I realize that teams run defenses fluctuate year to year but usually it's not dramatic. They do have some tough games vs. Pitt, NE and SD but other than that they really look to have a bunch of games against avg/below average teams. The average rank based on last years rush def rank was 19th which I imagine would be one of the lowest heading into the year.Their line won't be worse than last year and Grubbs looks to be a good addition that should help right away. Last year Jamal had 9 td's and he was pretty awful. I don't think anyone would argue that Willis isn't >> Jamal at this point, their line will be something to watch but should improve, the schedule looks pretty good and he has no threat to take carries. Teams have been loading the box vs. the Ravens forever so that's nothing new. Last year they couldn't block AND Jamal was probably the slowest back in the league hitting the hole which is a bad combo.
 
A great defense will set up shorter fields for McGahee to operate, and he will be used and abused in the 4th quarter whn Baltimore has the lead...he will excel at running out the clock. I am betting he has much higher 2nd half game stats.

352 carries...22 a game avg

1,500 yds rushing

40 catches

300 yds

12 TDs

That's about right.

 
325/1300/8, 20/150/0

They don't need to score many TDs in Baltimore to win. Mcgahee should run like their horse, but I am wary of the overall effectiveness of the offense led by McNair. I had him as a solid sleeper candidate at QB last year, and although I thought he played well when I watched him, his stats were nothing to write home about. Jamal Lewis was completely and utterly toast last season, and bottomline, I think Mcgahee can make Baltimore respectable again. Very solid RB#2, ho-hum production, but you can pencil him in every week.

 
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I don't expect much from him in Baltimore.

1000 yds ru-maybe

6-7 ru tds

275 rec yds

1-2 rec tds

twisted ankle week7,fine after the bye

 
Wow, with some of these projections, McGahee should be a late first round selection in many league formats.

 
I'm not as optimistic as some about Willis this year. Baltimore really has nothing on the passing side to keep opponents from loading 8 in the box this year. I would be surprised if McGahee puts up the numbers being projected in this thread.

 
I'd like to know that rationale behind predicting him to have relatively few receptions. I thought he had good hands.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but in a PPR league it makes a difference. Is the consensus that McGahee won't be really utilized as a receiver?

 
For the most part, I aggree w/where you guys see McGahee...MoP and a couple others are really bullish on Willis---me, not so much

The good news for the Raven run game are the additions the last 3 yrs via the draft....consider the Ravens drafted 5 O-linemen in their 1st 8 yrs (Ogden, Mitchell,Mulitalo,Rabach and Pashos)...guys like Flynn were UFA's

In the last 3 yrs, the Ravens have added 4-1st day picks (Grubbs-1st,Yanda-3rd,Chester-2nd,Terry-2nd) in addition to one 2nd day selection, (Brown-4th)...Ogden was the only 1st round lineman---hell, only 1st day lineman taken before the selection of Terry a couple yrs ago---we don't know if these guys pan out or not as a unit for another yr or so, but the mentality in the front office has changed somewhat concerning the offensive line.

With that, I see McGahees' as a slight upgrade to Jamal Lewis' production, say in the 3.9/ypc range as a minimum for projections sake.

In Jamal's 3 "average" years, he had carries of 308-309-314...a pretty steady workload.

In the 3 "aberitions", he had carries of 235-269-387, where injuries precluded him from a full workload in the 1st-2 years mentioned and QB's Boller(rookie season)--Redman--Wright nessitated the other yrs work(2066 yd rushing yr).

Given the history, I think the carries max out ~320 (@3.9), good for ~1250 yds---9TD's from Jamal last yr, let's call it 1 better for Willis, so 10TD's.

Receptions are a crap shoot...in Billicks 8 yrs, the FullBack has led the backs in recpt 2X's, the 3rd down back 4X's and the primary RB twice...

the range in receptions for the lead backs are 22( last yr Musa Smith had the most) and 47 by Jamal Lewis in '02

the odds are only 1-in-4 McGahee gets the primary work out of the backfield, putting his total in the low 20's

let's call it 22 @7.8 and no scores(~175yds)

320-1250-10

22--175--0

~1425/10 combined...202 FF points or RB12, which is probably very early 2nd round material---late 1st might be a bit of a reach

@23 in recent dynasty draft, I'm very happy w/that value :no:

 
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Grigs Allmoon said:
A win again ov said:
304 carries, 1234 yards, 9 touchdowns, 23 catches, 172 yards, 1td
Click to expand...
I like this prediction. That's pretty much where I have him.Those predicting 35+ receptions are dreaming, IMO.
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I don't know if it's dreaming. Last year Jamal had 18 last year and 32 the prior year (he's not a good recieving back at all) and Musa as a 3rd down back had 22 last year. Right after the Ravens traded for him Billick was quoted about how excited he was to use him in the passing game and that he gives them an element that they hadn't had before, etc. The Ravens really don't have a good 3rd down back so I could definitely see the Ravens keeping their best weapon on the field on 3rd downs thus more receptions.
 
Banger said:
Grigs Allmoon said:
A win again ov said:
304 carries, 1234 yards, 9 touchdowns, 23 catches, 172 yards, 1td
Click to expand...
I like this prediction. That's pretty much where I have him.Those predicting 35+ receptions are dreaming, IMO.
Click to expand...
I don't know if it's dreaming. Last year Jamal had 18 last year and 32 the prior year (he's not a good recieving back at all) and Musa as a 3rd down back had 22 last year. Right after the Ravens traded for him Billick was quoted about how excited he was to use him in the passing game and that he gives them an element that they hadn't had before, etc. The Ravens really don't have a good 3rd down back so I could definitely see the Ravens keeping their best weapon on the field on 3rd downs thus more receptions.
Click to expand...
And one of the reasons that the Bills traded McGahee is because they wanted a RB that could be a bigger threat in the passing game. When has McGahee ever been a serious threat in the passing game? McGahee will never be serious threat in the passing game for two reasons. First, his hands are mediocre. Secondly, he's not that smart. A RB needs to be able to read the defense and decide if he needs to block or slide out in a pattern. The reports were that McGahee barely knew the playbook in Buffalo and that's why he wasn't a factor in the passing game. And with Billick's complex offenses, I just don't see McGahee knowing what to do out there on passing plays.
 
GroveDiesel said:
Banger said:
Grigs Allmoon said:
A win again ov said:
304 carries, 1234 yards, 9 touchdowns, 23 catches, 172 yards, 1td
Click to expand...
I like this prediction. That's pretty much where I have him.Those predicting 35+ receptions are dreaming, IMO.
Click to expand...
I don't know if it's dreaming. Last year Jamal had 18 last year and 32 the prior year (he's not a good recieving back at all) and Musa as a 3rd down back had 22 last year. Right after the Ravens traded for him Billick was quoted about how excited he was to use him in the passing game and that he gives them an element that they hadn't had before, etc. The Ravens really don't have a good 3rd down back so I could definitely see the Ravens keeping their best weapon on the field on 3rd downs thus more receptions.
Click to expand...
And one of the reasons that the Bills traded McGahee is because they wanted a RB that could be a bigger threat in the passing game. When has McGahee ever been a serious threat in the passing game? McGahee will never be serious threat in the passing game for two reasons. First, his hands are mediocre. Secondly, he's not that smart. A RB needs to be able to read the defense and decide if he needs to block or slide out in a pattern. The reports were that McGahee barely knew the playbook in Buffalo and that's why he wasn't a factor in the passing game. And with Billick's complex offenses, I just don't see McGahee knowing what to do out there on passing plays.
Click to expand...
Losman was still learning how to become an NFL QB and the Bills offense didn't involve a lot of screens, etc. unlike McNair who can be the king of the short passing game. You make a good point regarding McGahee's work ethic/playbook knowledge and that's part of the gamble with him that not many are talking about. I see it as a glass half-full scenario and think that this is the perfect place he could have landed due to the leadership and a number of U alumni. In the past Willis would always workout on his own down in Miami and not participate in the offseason program in Buff and after he got traded one of the first things he said was the he'll be where ever the Ravens want him to be. I know those are just words but he's moving from a losing franchise to one that's on the cusp of winning of super bowl. If he can't turn it around now, he never will. found the article....McGahee a beautiful fit in Baltimore March 12, 2007Dave RichardSenior Fantasy WriterThe Buffalo Bills' offseason started with a bang as they addressed their offensive line needs. They signed guards Derrick Dockery and Jason Whittle along with tackle Langston Walker. Surely these moves were made to improve a running game ranked 27th in the NFL last year. And somewhere, Willis McGahee shrugged. "I didn't have a reaction," McGahee told CBS SportsLine regarding the Bills' offseason moves. He knew those signings weren't made to help him succeed. After the season ended, the 26-year-old running back was aware that his time in Buffalo was coming to an end. "Did I know (a trade) was coming? Yeah," he said. After discussions with other clubs, the Bills sent McGahee packing to Baltimore, where the Ravens had lost Jamal Lewis to Cleveland via free agency. In exchange for three draft picks in two years -- none of them higher than a third rounder -- the Ravens landed the versatile running back they've coveted for years. "We really do think (McGahee) will add -- beyond his physical abilities -- that extra dimension to what we're doing offensively that (will improve) some of the athletes in a way we haven't in the last few years," coach Brian Billick said of McGahee. One of the aspects of McGahee's game that Billick harped on was his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. The Bills rarely considered McGahee a receiver (he had 68 receptions and zero touchdowns in three active seasons with them), but found a lot of success catching the ball at the University of Miami, averaging 13.3 yards per catch in 2002. "I'm pretty sure if he talked about it he's going to be about it," McGahee said of Billick. "I know he has great intentions for me. I'm just going to come out and show up." There is going to be a lot more than receptions for McGahee in Baltimore. Last year the Ravens averaged 29.8 carries per game; only 10 teams ran the ball more than they did. More of the same is expected in 2007. McGahee spoke with running backs coach Tony Nathan about the kind of offense Baltimore runs the day before his press conference announcing the trade. "The scheme sounds great," he said. "They say they like to run the ball -- I'm in the right place. I need to put some miles on these legs." What will help McGahee put on those miles is an offense that is far from one-dimensional. McGahee admitted that in the past he'd see a lot of nine-man fronts because the Bills were inept at throwing the football to the point where teams dared them to throw. In fact, once the Bills became inept in the passing game, McGahee's stats suffered. That won't be the case in Baltimore since Steve McNair is under center and Mark Clayton, Derrick Mason and Todd Heap form a nice trio of targets that defenses must account for. "McNair is the vet. He's a Pro Bowler. He knows what it takes and what he has to do," McGahee said. "I know it's not going to be as much pressure on me. There's going to be pressure, but it's not going to be like how it was in Buffalo where I had to do it all because J.P. (Losman) was a younger quarterback. He's coming around, he's going to be a great quarterback one day. But I know McNair can take control of a game and do what he does best." Fantasy owners should be thrilled with McGahee's move to B-More since he should be free to do more with the ball when he gets it, which will be often. There are also no plans as of now for him to lose his goal-line carries, and as long as he proves himself to be a versatile performer, that won't change. What will change are his bi-annual beatings of the Jets. McGahee is quick to point out that the Ravens play the Jets once in 2007, but he knows he won't see them twice a year like he did in Buffalo. McGahee has five straight 100-yard games against Gang Green. "You know what it is with the Jets?" McGahee said, revealing his secret to success. "My boy is over there, Jonathan Vilma. So it's like bragging rights. It's cockiness between me and him. That's how it was at 'The U.' We always went after each other." Speaking of "The U," McGahee will be reunited with college teammate Ed Reed and Miami Hurricane great Ray Lewis in Baltimore, making it an easy transition for McGahee to fit in in the lockerroom. Moreover, he's probably not going to have any problems being motivated to succeed with Reed and Lewis barking in his ear on a daily basis at practice. Ultimately, McGahee should be successful with the Ravens. Considering what the Ravens ask their running backs to do combined with the lack of competition for carries, McGahee has the makings of a 20-plus carry running back who has 100-yard, one-TD potential on a weekly basis, making him an easy first-round pick in Fantasy drafts.
 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I'd like to know that rationale behind predicting him to have relatively few receptions. I thought he had good hands.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but in a PPR league it makes a difference. Is the consensus that McGahee won't be really utilized as a receiver?
Click to expand...
Willis McGahee pledges to not work out in Miami this offseason, but rather with his new Ravens teammates.McGahee also answered questions Friday about his knee, which he says is "better than ever," and coach Brian Billick says the Ravens will use more swing and screen passes to take advantage of McGahee's effectiveness in space.


 
GroveDiesel said:
Banger said:
Grigs Allmoon said:
A win again ov said:
304 carries, 1234 yards, 9 touchdowns, 23 catches, 172 yards, 1td
Click to expand...
I like this prediction. That's pretty much where I have him.Those predicting 35+ receptions are dreaming, IMO.
Click to expand...
I don't know if it's dreaming. Last year Jamal had 18 last year and 32 the prior year (he's not a good recieving back at all) and Musa as a 3rd down back had 22 last year. Right after the Ravens traded for him Billick was quoted about how excited he was to use him in the passing game and that he gives them an element that they hadn't had before, etc. The Ravens really don't have a good 3rd down back so I could definitely see the Ravens keeping their best weapon on the field on 3rd downs thus more receptions.
Click to expand...
And one of the reasons that the Bills traded McGahee is because they wanted a RB that could be a bigger threat in the passing game. When has McGahee ever been a serious threat in the passing game? McGahee will never be serious threat in the passing game for two reasons. First, his hands are mediocre. Secondly, he's not that smart. A RB needs to be able to read the defense and decide if he needs to block or slide out in a pattern. The reports were that McGahee barely knew the playbook in Buffalo and that's why he wasn't a factor in the passing game. And with Billick's complex offenses, I just don't see McGahee knowing what to do out there on passing plays.
Click to expand...
Willis McGahee is participating in offseason conditioning, over a month earlier than he trained while with the Bills.McGahee says he's a lot more fired up now that he's a Raven. He also disses the city of Buffalo once again, pointing out its lack of women and preponderance of Applebees-like restaurants. And yes, the Ravens play in Buffalo this season.




 
BigSteelThrill said:
Im no Raven fan and Im no McGahee fan... but the synergy between these two could be huge. I like his ceiling.I didnt want him last year... but by the time we get to the drafts Im expecting him to be in locked into the first round...325 carries1330 yards (4.1)14 TDs25 catches170 yards1 TD
Click to expand...
:thumbup: I cringed when I heard the Ravens got McGahee. If he stays healthy this could be a marriage made in heaven. 340 carries1470 Yards12 TDs30 catches210 yards1 TD
 
As was noted earlier in this thread, the Baltimore o-line is in a transitional phase, replacing the old road grader types with more athletic guys. This bodes well for Willis in the future; as the line gels, the Ravens could actually get outside once in a while and utilize his skills.

I'm cautiously optimistic and am looking for a 10-20% improvement over Jamal's numbers from last year.

 
Banger said:
GroveDiesel said:
Banger said:
Grigs Allmoon said:
A win again ov said:
304 carries, 1234 yards, 9 touchdowns, 23 catches, 172 yards, 1td
Click to expand...
I like this prediction. That's pretty much where I have him.Those predicting 35+ receptions are dreaming, IMO.
Click to expand...
I don't know if it's dreaming. Last year Jamal had 18 last year and 32 the prior year (he's not a good recieving back at all) and Musa as a 3rd down back had 22 last year. Right after the Ravens traded for him Billick was quoted about how excited he was to use him in the passing game and that he gives them an element that they hadn't had before, etc. The Ravens really don't have a good 3rd down back so I could definitely see the Ravens keeping their best weapon on the field on 3rd downs thus more receptions.
Click to expand...
And one of the reasons that the Bills traded McGahee is because they wanted a RB that could be a bigger threat in the passing game. When has McGahee ever been a serious threat in the passing game? McGahee will never be serious threat in the passing game for two reasons. First, his hands are mediocre. Secondly, he's not that smart. A RB needs to be able to read the defense and decide if he needs to block or slide out in a pattern. The reports were that McGahee barely knew the playbook in Buffalo and that's why he wasn't a factor in the passing game. And with Billick's complex offenses, I just don't see McGahee knowing what to do out there on passing plays.
Click to expand...
Losman was still learning how to become an NFL QB and the Bills offense didn't involve a lot of screens, etc. unlike McNair who can be the king of the short passing game. You make a good point regarding McGahee's work ethic/playbook knowledge and that's part of the gamble with him that not many are talking about. I see it as a glass half-full scenario and think that this is the perfect place he could have landed due to the leadership and a number of U alumni. In the past Willis would always workout on his own down in Miami and not participate in the offseason program in Buff and after he got traded one of the first things he said was the he'll be where ever the Ravens want him to be. I know those are just words but he's moving from a losing franchise to one that's on the cusp of winning of super bowl. If he can't turn it around now, he never will. found the article....
Click to expand...
:bye: It's possible that he'll prove me wrong, but Willis McGahee is not the Willis McGahee that was at Miami. He doesn't have the same speed and his game suffers a lot because of it. He doesn't read holes well, he's slow to get through the holes, he's a mediocre blocker at best and without his top end speed and his inability to read a defense, he's not a very good receiving option. One of the reasons that the Bills were a losing franchise is because McGahee is a losing RB. You don't think that teams have stacked the line against Tomlinson? Or that teams didn't stack the line against Sanders? Or that teams didn't stack the line even last year against guys like Betts, Gore, LJ, Tiki, Henry, and Taylor/MJD? The bottom line is that McGahee is not an elite NFL RB. If he has success in Baltimore it's more because of the team around him than anything that he brings to the table. He does not have the elite speed nor instincts to create plays on his own. If he can stay healthy, I think that he can definitely replicate Lewis's numbers. I just don't see him as a special back. I was more upset about the Bills losing Henry than I was about them losing McGahee.
 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I'd like to know that rationale behind predicting him to have relatively few receptions. I thought he had good hands. I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but in a PPR league it makes a difference. Is the consensus that McGahee won't be really utilized as a receiver?
Click to expand...
Seems to me like Billick just likes to pound the rock with his main RB. The only thing that stopped him from giving Lewis 400 carries last year was the game situations and due ot Jamal's ineffectiveness. Not to mention that there is precedence of him using a specialist for the pass catching duties at RB. Not to mention that McNair really liked both Todd Heap and even that Wilcox character last year. I just get the feeling that MCgahee won't be catching more than a couple hundred yards receiving this coming year. Any more than that and he would have to be considered a weapon in the passing game. It didn't happen with Mcgahee in Buffalo and I don't see it happening in Baltimore either. They brought him in the pound the rock.
 
The main problem McGahee will have this season will not be the O-line nor another RB grabbing carries. The main problem will be with the Ravens philosophy of score about 20 points and let the D do their job. As a team the offense only had 32 TDs last year (which is an avg of 2 per game). Compare this to say a high offensive team like CIN (42 Offensive TD's - avg of 2.63 a game or a difference of 10 total TDs). So rushing attempts should be good, as well as yardage, but TD production will not be stealer. I see it falling out like this

Rushes 320

Rushing Yards 1,280

Rush TDs 9

Receptions 25

Receiving Yards 175

Receiving TDs 0

 
McGahee is not the back everyone expected him to be coming out of college. Add in the terrible Raven OL, and you have a recipe for disaster. I know I may be the lone dissenter here, but I see a downward sliding career for McGahee in Baltimore. The team is going to expect him to carry the load, which he's not durable enough to do. And McNair is an aging QB, not striking fear in defenses anymore, adding to McGahee's trouble.s

360 carries 1400 yards 6TDs

20 receptions 127 yards 0TDs

 
Willis has played on a very bad team for the last 3 years. Even if the Ravens don't have the best O-line, it's better than the Bills. He gets an upgrade at QB. A upgrade on defence. He should get more Red zone carries and be more involved in the passing game per BB. Bottom line is the Ravens are better all round team which will make Willis better. Willis will be playing with something to prove next year!

350/1450/13

35/245/1

 
Banger said:
Grigs Allmoon said:
A win again ov said:
304 carries, 1234 yards, 9 touchdowns, 23 catches, 172 yards, 1td
Click to expand...
I like this prediction. That's pretty much where I have him.Those predicting 35+ receptions are dreaming, IMO.
Click to expand...
Last year Jamal had 18 last year and 32 the prior year (he's not a good recieving back at all) and Musa as a 3rd down back had 22 last year.
Click to expand...
He's no worse than McGahee.Heck Shaud Williams (who?) took 3rd down reps from McGahee. Surely Musa will.
 
Add him to the 1st rd RB picks. In the Edge mold from here on out with less wear on the tires. Has a passion to play football but has trouble with loosing. Balt. could be a good fit if both he and the team see some wins early. Early success could help him have a huge year.

330 att

1500 yds

10 tds

30 rec

300 yds

3 td

 
There is no question that McGahee has talent. Just look at his senior year at Miami when he was a man-among-boys on the field and his 2nd year in NFL (sat out rookie year to recover from injury) when he rushed for 1128 yards and 13 TDs while starting only 11 games. McGahee's issue is attitude and with Ray Lewis/McNair to show him what a professional is, McGahee is in for a big year.

325 carries/1445 yards/9 TDs

25 rec/175 yards/1 TD

 
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I like what the Ravens are doing for McGahee. While the Bills completely ignored all the O-Line issues they had while McGahee was on the team, the Ravens are doing quite the opposite. The got Ogden, the anchor of the line back for at least another year, they drafted a great guard in Ben Grubbs, it's not a "sexy" pick but it's going to help in the running and passing game. That's not all, they spend a 3rd on Yanda and then in addition to that take the best blocking fullback in the draft, Le'Ron McClain in the 4th. 1st/3rd/4th round picks all geared towards the Line/Running game.

McGahee doesn't face any competition for carries, he has competent backups Mike Anderson and Musa Smith who can come in and give him breathers, but that's about it. It sounds like McGahee is alot happier where he is at and there is plenty of veteran leadership to keep his head on straight. I don't look for this to be a huge "breakout" year for McGahee but some good improvement over the past couple of years.

Rushes 335

Rushing Yards 1,325

Rush TDs 13

Receptions 30

Receiving Yards 195

Receiving TDs 2

 
GroveDiesel said:
:unsure: It's possible that he'll prove me wrong, but Willis McGahee is not the Willis McGahee that was at Miami. He doesn't have the same speed and his game suffers a lot because of it. He doesn't read holes well, he's slow to get through the holes, he's a mediocre blocker at best and without his top end speed and his inability to read a defense, he's not a very good receiving option. One of the reasons that the Bills were a losing franchise is because McGahee is a losing RB. You don't think that teams have stacked the line against Tomlinson? Or that teams didn't stack the line against Sanders? Or that teams didn't stack the line even last year against guys like Betts, Gore, LJ, Tiki, Henry, and Taylor/MJD? The bottom line is that McGahee is not an elite NFL RB. If he has success in Baltimore it's more because of the team around him than anything that he brings to the table. He does not have the elite speed nor instincts to create plays on his own. If he can stay healthy, I think that he can definitely replicate Lewis's numbers. I just don't see him as a special back. I was more upset about the Bills losing Henry than I was about them losing McGahee.
Click to expand...
The most telling thing when I watching McGahee last year was that I kept asking myself "Where's the stiff arm??" McGahee, for those who were lucky enough to see him play at Miami and at the beginning of his career in Buffalo had a stiff arm that was devastating. As soon as he threw that arm out, it seemed like he was the guy making a tackle. Surely, if statisticians counted offensive tackles as RBs McGahee would have had a huge number of them. I don't know where it went, but he doesn't have that anymore, and it was a big part of his game. Maybe he will get it back? Until then....950/730/250/1
 
Ducegonads said:
Add him to the 1st rd RB picks. In the Edge mold from here on out with less wear on the tires. Has a passion to play football but has trouble with loosing. Balt. could be a good fit if both he and the team see some wins early. Early success could help him have a huge year.

330 att

1500 yds

10 tds

30 rec

300 yds

3 td
Click to expand...
1800/13 TDs?Willis McGahee didn't sniff numbers anything close to that in Buffalo.

Jamal Lewis (except for his monster year) didn't put up numbers like that in Baltimore.

But Willis McGahee in Baltimore is gonna?

McGahee doesn't have a single receiving TD in his career, but this year he'll put up 3? Last year, 1500 rushing would have made McGahee Top 5. 13 TDs would have made him Top 7. Willis McGahee is nowhere near the top handful of RBs in the NFL. He is what he is... average. I see another year of 1300 combined and 6 TDs. :thumbup:

Duce, you're :thumbup:

 
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switz said:
McGahee is not the back everyone expected him to be coming out of college. Add in the terrible Raven OL, and you have a recipe for disaster. I know I may be the lone dissenter here, but I see a downward sliding career for McGahee in Baltimore. The team is going to expect him to carry the load, which he's not durable enough to do. And McNair is an aging QB, not striking fear in defenses anymore, adding to McGahee's trouble.s360 carries 1400 yards 6TDs20 receptions 127 yards 0TDs
Click to expand...
You're not the lone dissenter. The time to trade McGahee in dynasty is now. Next year will be too late.
 
Wow, given his age and the predictions for this season, McGahee's severely undervalued in dynasty leagues right now IMO.

 
roadkill1292 said:
As was noted earlier in this thread, the Baltimore o-line is in a transitional phase, replacing the old road grader types with more athletic guys. This bodes well for Willis in the future; as the line gels, the Ravens could actually get outside once in a while and utilize his skills.

I'm cautiously optimistic and am looking for a 10-20% improvement over Jamal's numbers from last year.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I think Ravens fans would break their necks trying to follow the ball if they ran outside. We automatically look between the Gs on a handoff :rolleyes: Willis scares me a little; can't put my finger on why yet. However, Lewis was very frustrating to watch the last couple of years with all of the tap dancing & his refusal to slam into (or run over) people anymore (I also realize that it wasn't all Lewis' fault for the downturn). I think the running game is upgraded some here & look for something like:

320/1344, 4.2ypc, 9 TDs

30/210, 7.0 ypr, 1 TD

as the floor, assuming health, with the possibility of Top 8 RB #s should everything come together.

 
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Kit Fisto said:
switz said:
McGahee is not the back everyone expected him to be coming out of college. Add in the terrible Raven OL, and you have a recipe for disaster. I know I may be the lone dissenter here, but I see a downward sliding career for McGahee in Baltimore. The team is going to expect him to carry the load, which he's not durable enough to do. And McNair is an aging QB, not striking fear in defenses anymore, adding to McGahee's trouble.s360 carries 1400 yards 6TDs20 receptions 127 yards 0TDs
Click to expand...
You're not the lone dissenter. The time to trade McGahee in dynasty is now. Next year will be too late.
Click to expand...
Hey Kit, I think this is the first time we've agreed. Something must be wrong. :lmao:
 
switz said:
Kit Fisto said:
switz said:
McGahee is not the back everyone expected him to be coming out of college. Add in the terrible Raven OL, and you have a recipe for disaster. I know I may be the lone dissenter here, but I see a downward sliding career for McGahee in Baltimore. The team is going to expect him to carry the load, which he's not durable enough to do. And McNair is an aging QB, not striking fear in defenses anymore, adding to McGahee's trouble.s360 carries 1400 yards 6TDs20 receptions 127 yards 0TDs
Click to expand...
You're not the lone dissenter. The time to trade McGahee in dynasty is now. Next year will be too late.
Click to expand...
Hey Kit, I think this is the first time we've agreed. Something must be wrong. ;)
Click to expand...
No kidding! :suds:
 
switz said:
McGahee is not the back everyone expected him to be coming out of college. Add in the terrible Raven OL, and you have a recipe for disaster. I know I may be the lone dissenter here, but I see a downward sliding career for McGahee in Baltimore. The team is going to expect him to carry the load, which he's not durable enough to do. And McNair is an aging QB, not striking fear in defenses anymore, adding to McGahee's trouble.s

360 carries 1400 yards 6TDs

20 receptions 127 yards 0TDs
Click to expand...
360 carries sounds like he's carrying the load. And dissenter? People need to look up words before they use them.

With 1,400 yards, McGahee would have finished 7th in rushing. Ravens will take that all day long.

So you're down on McGahee, and he can't carry the load, then project 360 carries and 1,400 yards. Most Raven fans would eat up 87 rushing yards a game. (Jamal Lewis got 1,400 yards once in 7 years. In the last 3 it was 1000, 900, 1,100, so 1,400 would be a big surge.)

So yes, you like McGahee’s production and durability. All clear now.

I've got him at about 280 carries (Unlike you, I don't like his durability), 1,050 yards and 7 tds.

 
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bump for the McGahee article. Attitude/learning the offense was a BIG issue in Buff and was a legitimate risk/concern heading into this year. So far so good.....

Happy camper

Willis McGahee keeps his promise to attend voluntary practices

By Jamison Hensley

Sun Reporter

Originally published May 22, 2007

After Willis McGahee's first practices with the Ravens last week, team officials couldn't say they gained any insight into whether their new running back is primed for a career year or if he is going to add any punch to the passing attack.

But the Ravens did learn something about McGahee - he is a man of his word.

Often criticized for missing voluntary workouts with the Buffalo Bills, McGahee lived up to his promise that he would attend the Ravens' minicamps and expects it to pay dividends.

"I'm motivated, I've got to step my game up," said McGahee, who will rejoin his teammates for the second Ravens minicamp today. "My teammates are expecting a lot of me. I'm going to go out there and dish it out. Hopefully, we can all work together and make that run we want."

The Ravens traded three draft picks (third- and seventh-round picks this year and a third-round pick next year) to the Bills to acquire McGahee, who had been considered a distraction in Buffalo.

Last year, McGahee was the only veteran to skip the Bills' first five voluntary minicamps, even though Buffalo was installing a different system under a new offensive coordinator.

Former Bills running back Thurman Thomas criticized McGahee last year, saying McGahee wasn't showing much leadership by being a no-show.

McGahee said his trade to the Ravens has given him a fresh start and a new environment.

"The vibe in the air is totally different," McGahee said. "These guys know what they want, and they know what they need to do. The coaches treat you like men. Everybody is making sure everybody is on top of their game.

"We're not messing around. When one player messes up, you might laugh here or there. Jokes aside, we help each other out."

While the dedication is there, the comfort level is not. McGahee acknowledged that he made a couple of mistakes and estimated that the learning process could last through training camp.

"I was a little nervous out there; I feel like a rookie all over again," he said. "Everybody messes up. I expect myself to mess up. It's like we're breaking the seal right now."

The biggest transition for McGahee is learning the new terminology.

"I'm moving in pretty good," he said "Coach [brian Billick] says we have to learn fast and he's talking fast. It's hard on anybody coming in and trying to learn a whole new playbook. It's going to take a little time, but I'm not worried about it."

It could be a different playbook for everybody.

With McGahee, the Ravens expect to open up the offense more than they did in the past with a pure power back like Jamal Lewis. Because McGahee is more of a slasher, they can use more one-back formations and make him more of an integral part to the offense.

"I think he's going to be a great addition to the team," Ravens quarterback Steve McNair said. "Looking at him and how he's getting a feel for this offense, he's not only going to help us in the running game, but also the passing game. If you give him the ball at 5 yards, he'll get you 10 out of it."

This type of explosiveness has eluded McGahee recently.

In 2004, he scored 13 touchdowns and broke 10 runs of at least 20 yards. In the past two seasons, he has totaled 11 touchdowns and eight runs of at least 20 yards.

This season is about changing direction for McGahee.

He's already taken the first step to do so, settling in with the Ravens while putting his unsettled days with the Bills in the past.

"I have nothing to prove to Buffalo," McGahee said. "It was fun while it lasted, but that's behind me right now. It's all in the past. I'm not even worried about it because I'm on a new team. We've got bigger and better things to worry about."

 
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