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Player Spotlight: Randy Moss (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Plaxico Burress Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
75 receptions

1100 yards

10 TDs

Immediately becomes Brady's favorite target. Gets off to a great start, until opposing teams start double covering him. Then he becomes Belichick's favorite decoy, frustrating Moss owners everywhere.

 
bostonfred said:
Gets off to a great start, until opposing teams start double covering him. Then he becomes Belichick's favorite decoy, frustrating Moss owners everywhere.
Click to expand...
It'll be difficult to consistently double team him with Stallworth and Watson roaming around, not to mention Caldwell and Welker aren't exactly easy covers when they're in 3 and 4 WR sets.NE's improved defense is a more likely threat to Moss' numbers IMHO.
 
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WRs in their 30s don't become studs after seasons where they were ineffective. The best example for Moss supporters to point to, is Mark Clayton. At age 29, he was WR68 despite playing in 10 games (i.e., he wasn't ranked so low because of injury). But at age 30, he was the 6th best fantasy WR. Not surprisingly, he's the only WR since the merger to finish below WR58 (where Moss was last year) while playing in at least 8 games at age 29 or older, and then rank in the top ten the following year. Only one other WR ranked in the top 15, and one more in the top 20.

On the flip side, only two WRs have had as many receiving yards through 9 years as Moss. And both of them had monster years in year 10 (Harrison and Rice). So you have to decide whether Moss is more like Harrison or Rice, more like most old WRs that are ineffective, or more like Mark Clayton.

 
Chase Stuart said:
WRs in their 30s don't become studs after seasons where they were ineffective. The best example for Moss supporters to point to, is Mark Clayton. At age 29, he was WR68 despite playing in 10 games (i.e., he wasn't ranked so low because of injury). But at age 30, he was the 6th best fantasy WR. Not surprisingly, he's the only WR since the merger to finish below WR58 (where Moss was last year) while playing in at least 8 games at age 29 or older, and then rank in the top ten the following year. Only one other WR ranked in the top 15, and one more in the top 20.On the flip side, only two WRs have had as many receiving yards through 9 years as Moss. And both of them had monster years in year 10 (Harrison and Rice). So you have to decide whether Moss is more like Harrison or Rice, more like most old WRs that are ineffective, or more like Mark Clayton.
Click to expand...
I'll take Harrison and Rice minus the work ethic and atitude for $100 Alex
 
Chase Stuart said:
WRs in their 30s don't become studs after seasons where they were ineffective. The best example for Moss supporters to point to, is Mark Clayton. At age 29, he was WR68 despite playing in 10 games (i.e., he wasn't ranked so low because of injury). But at age 30, he was the 6th best fantasy WR. Not surprisingly, he's the only WR since the merger to finish below WR58 (where Moss was last year) while playing in at least 8 games at age 29 or older, and then rank in the top ten the following year. Only one other WR ranked in the top 15, and one more in the top 20.On the flip side, only two WRs have had as many receiving yards through 9 years as Moss. And both of them had monster years in year 10 (Harrison and Rice). So you have to decide whether Moss is more like Harrison or Rice, more like most old WRs that are ineffective, or more like Mark Clayton.
Click to expand...
I think it's a very unique circumstance where looking at historical data may lead you to the wrong conclusion because:A) Moss is one of the most gifted WRs to ever play the game.andB) Oakland had one of the worst offenses in recent history and he is transitioning to one of the better offenses in the NFL.That's probably a statement of the obvious, but historical data is probably one of the last factors I'd use to sway my projections in this particular instance.
 
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LHUCKS said:
Chase Stuart said:
WRs in their 30s don't become studs after seasons where they were ineffective. The best example for Moss supporters to point to, is Mark Clayton. At age 29, he was WR68 despite playing in 10 games (i.e., he wasn't ranked so low because of injury). But at age 30, he was the 6th best fantasy WR. Not surprisingly, he's the only WR since the merger to finish below WR58 (where Moss was last year) while playing in at least 8 games at age 29 or older, and then rank in the top ten the following year. Only one other WR ranked in the top 15, and one more in the top 20.On the flip side, only two WRs have had as many receiving yards through 9 years as Moss. And both of them had monster years in year 10 (Harrison and Rice). So you have to decide whether Moss is more like Harrison or Rice, more like most old WRs that are ineffective, or more like Mark Clayton.
Click to expand...
I think it's a very unique circumstance where looking at historical data may lead you to the wrong conclusion because:A) Moss is oen of the most gifted WRs to ever play the game.andB) Oakland had one of the worst offenses in recent history and he is transitioning to one of the better offenses in the NFL.That's probably a statement of the obvious, but historical data is probably one of the last factors I'd use to sway my projections in this particular instance.
Click to expand...
Historical data could have you projecting 97 recs, 1322.5 yards and 12.5 TDs.But FWIW, I have my suspicions that the 2007 Randy Moss is one of the most gifted WRs to ever play the game.
 
LHUCKS said:
Chase Stuart said:
WRs in their 30s don't become studs after seasons where they were ineffective. The best example for Moss supporters to point to, is Mark Clayton. At age 29, he was WR68 despite playing in 10 games (i.e., he wasn't ranked so low because of injury). But at age 30, he was the 6th best fantasy WR. Not surprisingly, he's the only WR since the merger to finish below WR58 (where Moss was last year) while playing in at least 8 games at age 29 or older, and then rank in the top ten the following year. Only one other WR ranked in the top 15, and one more in the top 20.On the flip side, only two WRs have had as many receiving yards through 9 years as Moss. And both of them had monster years in year 10 (Harrison and Rice). So you have to decide whether Moss is more like Harrison or Rice, more like most old WRs that are ineffective, or more like Mark Clayton.
Click to expand...
I think it's a very unique circumstance where looking at historical data may lead you to the wrong conclusion because:A) Moss is oen of the most gifted WRs to ever play the game.andB) Oakland had one of the worst offenses in recent history and he is transitioning to one of the better offenses in the NFL.That's probably a statement of the obvious, but historical data is probably one of the last factors I'd use to sway my projections in this particular instance.
Click to expand...
Not only was it the worst - it was the worst at doing wha tis necessary for Moss to succeed - allow time for the QB to make a play. Moss is not a timing WR - he is the 'cwintessanchal' deep threat/broken play bomb guy. He is not an 'acceleration up the seam guy' or any of that.NE will see what they have - and likely figure out how to use it. Dunno how many TD's that means but if he doesn't make the O better he will be riding pine and then cut when he whines. My guess is he wants a ring and a chance at the Hall.Not so many catches - but plenty of TD's and some deep ones.
 
Chase Stuart said:
LHUCKS said:
Chase Stuart said:
WRs in their 30s don't become studs after seasons where they were ineffective. The best example for Moss supporters to point to, is Mark Clayton. At age 29, he was WR68 despite playing in 10 games (i.e., he wasn't ranked so low because of injury). But at age 30, he was the 6th best fantasy WR. Not surprisingly, he's the only WR since the merger to finish below WR58 (where Moss was last year) while playing in at least 8 games at age 29 or older, and then rank in the top ten the following year. Only one other WR ranked in the top 15, and one more in the top 20.On the flip side, only two WRs have had as many receiving yards through 9 years as Moss. And both of them had monster years in year 10 (Harrison and Rice). So you have to decide whether Moss is more like Harrison or Rice, more like most old WRs that are ineffective, or more like Mark Clayton.
Click to expand...
I think it's a very unique circumstance where looking at historical data may lead you to the wrong conclusion because:A) Moss is oen of the most gifted WRs to ever play the game.andB) Oakland had one of the worst offenses in recent history and he is transitioning to one of the better offenses in the NFL.That's probably a statement of the obvious, but historical data is probably one of the last factors I'd use to sway my projections in this particular instance.
Click to expand...
Historical data could have you projecting 97 recs, 1322.5 yards and 12.5 TDs.
Click to expand...
My historical data comment was aimed at those persons using the first dataset you described regarding "don't become studs after seasons where they were ineffective."
 
This should be a great thread. I hated Moss the last 2 years. I had him 2 years ago and he stunk. Last year I ranked him as the 18th WR and he was actually worse. But I love Moss this year. If he keeps his hamstring healthy I have little doubt he will be the #1 WR in fantasy football with one of the games best QBs throwing to him on a team with a great offensive philosophy and a number of other good targets to throw to.

80 rec, 1200 yds, 14 tds

 
Randy Moss will help NE will football games. He'll have some big plays and I believe he'll fit into their system just fine. If you remember, just a few years ago Corey Dillon went to New England and there was much concern over how he'd get along and react after being a disgruntled player in Cinci. He worked out just fine and I see the same thing happening with Moss.

Winning has a funny way of making people happy and New England will definately win this season more than they lose.

980 yards receiving

70 receptions

9 td's

 
Part of Moss' problem is that he never played as well on grass as he did on turf. I forget the exact statistics, but when he was in Minnesota his stats were considerably worse on grass. That hurt him in Oakland and it won't change in New England.

Moss used to be the best receiver in the NFL and last year he wasn't even the best receiver named "Moss". What a waste of talent. Still, I see a mild career resurrection in NE.

72/972/7

 
guderian said:
Part of Moss' problem is that he never played as well on grass as he did on turf. I forget the exact statistics, but when he was in Minnesota his stats were considerably worse on grass. That hurt him in Oakland and it won't change in New England. Moss used to be the best receiver in the NFL and last year he wasn't even the best receiver named "Moss". What a waste of talent. Still, I see a mild career resurrection in NE. 72/972/7
Click to expand...
NE put in fieldturf last year.
 
The reason that Moss is now a Patriot is because Tom Brady wanted him there, championed Moss, and made it happen. He's never had a receiver of Moss' caliber to throw to before (thats why he spread the ball around). Not sure exactly what kind of numbers this translates to, but Brady wanted him there and will be looking for him early and often.

 
guderian said:
Part of Moss' problem is that he never played as well on grass as he did on turf. I forget the exact statistics, but when he was in Minnesota his stats were considerably worse on grass. That hurt him in Oakland and it won't change in New England. Moss used to be the best receiver in the NFL and last year he wasn't even the best receiver named "Moss". What a waste of talent. Still, I see a mild career resurrection in NE. 72/972/7
Click to expand...
New England has field turf now. It is much faster than grass.
 
Laurence Maroney is going to get the ball at the stripe a lot more than Moss. And I'm not sure how many "sprints past double coveage downfield" Moss has left in him. We've all heard the 4.3 40 rumors in front of Belicheck, but to me Moss has looked pretty slow for several seasons now.

70/1000/9

 
3nOut said:
The reason that Moss is now a Patriot is because Tom Brady wanted him there, championed Moss, and made it happen. He's never had a receiver of Moss' caliber to throw to before (thats why he spread the ball around). Not sure exactly what kind of numbers this translates to, but Brady wanted him there and will be looking for him early and often.
Click to expand...
Couldn't agree more. If Moss remains healthy this year, it's going to be very hard for him to not be a top 15 WR IMO. As I've said before, BB and NE are built upon taking advantage of mismatches of both scheme and player. Moss naturally creates both and will easily be found a purpose for in NE.78 receptions, 1230 yds, 13 TDs

 
I'll go with 80 receptions

1200 yards (15 ypc)

10 td's

The hardest guy to put a projection on this year

That would put him as the #4 wr last year. I think that might be a tad bit high for him, not that he doesn't have that type of a ceiling, but to put him up there right away might be tough. However to be honest I don't know what I where I would regress his #'s at. When healthy and motivated 10 td's is the floor and I expect him to be both and 80 receptions should be easy as well and you know he'll avg. atleast 15 yards a catch. I guess I'll stick with these #'s but I will take more than 3 other wr's before him.

 
3nOut said:
The reason that Moss is now a Patriot is because Tom Brady wanted him there, championed Moss, and made it happen. He's never had a receiver of Moss' caliber to throw to before (thats why he spread the ball around). Not sure exactly what kind of numbers this translates to, but Brady wanted him there and will be looking for him early and often.
Click to expand...
Hmmm. I see some parallels here between Moss/Brady and T.O/McNabb. They'll need to get Moss involved early if they want to keep him interested. He's shown that he's more than happy to sit back and give you 50% if you don't keep him in the mix. LOTS of receivers in NE now. I'll give Moss 65 catches, 975 yards and 7 TD's. Sorry Randy. The days of the Randy Ratio are over.

 
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darmani said:
3nOut said:
The reason that Moss is now a Patriot is because Tom Brady wanted him there, championed Moss, and made it happen. He's never had a receiver of Moss' caliber to throw to before (thats why he spread the ball around). Not sure exactly what kind of numbers this translates to, but Brady wanted him there and will be looking for him early and often.
Click to expand...
Hmmm. I see some parallels here between Moss/Brady and T.O/McNabb. They'll need to get Moss involved early if they want to keep him interested. He's shown that he's more than happy to sit back and give you 50% if you don't keep him in the mix. LOTS of receivers in NE now. I'll give Moss 65 catches, 975 yards and 7 TD's. Sorry Randy. The days of the Randy Ratio are over.
Click to expand...
Moss had one of his worst seasons under the Randy Ratio.
 
jurb26 said:
darmani said:
3nOut said:
The reason that Moss is now a Patriot is because Tom Brady wanted him there, championed Moss, and made it happen. He's never had a receiver of Moss' caliber to throw to before (thats why he spread the ball around). Not sure exactly what kind of numbers this translates to, but Brady wanted him there and will be looking for him early and often.
Click to expand...
Hmmm. I see some parallels here between Moss/Brady and T.O/McNabb. They'll need to get Moss involved early if they want to keep him interested. He's shown that he's more than happy to sit back and give you 50% if you don't keep him in the mix. LOTS of receivers in NE now. I'll give Moss 65 catches, 975 yards and 7 TD's. Sorry Randy. The days of the Randy Ratio are over.
Click to expand...
Moss had one of his worst seasons under the Randy Ratio.
Click to expand...
gee, let's tell the defense where we are going to throw the ball 40 percent of the time; what genius!!!
 
LHUCKS said:
Chase Stuart said:
WRs in their 30s don't become studs after seasons where they were ineffective. The best example for Moss supporters to point to, is Mark Clayton. At age 29, he was WR68 despite playing in 10 games (i.e., he wasn't ranked so low because of injury). But at age 30, he was the 6th best fantasy WR. Not surprisingly, he's the only WR since the merger to finish below WR58 (where Moss was last year) while playing in at least 8 games at age 29 or older, and then rank in the top ten the following year. Only one other WR ranked in the top 15, and one more in the top 20.On the flip side, only two WRs have had as many receiving yards through 9 years as Moss. And both of them had monster years in year 10 (Harrison and Rice). So you have to decide whether Moss is more like Harrison or Rice, more like most old WRs that are ineffective, or more like Mark Clayton.
Click to expand...
I think it's a very unique circumstance where looking at historical data may lead you to the wrong conclusion because:A) Moss is one of the most gifted WRs to ever play the game.andB) Oakland had one of the worst offenses in recent history and he is transitioning to one of the better offenses in the NFL.That's probably a statement of the obvious, but historical data is probably one of the last factors I'd use to sway my projections in this particular instance.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: 77-1216-11
 
I find it hard to believe he won't beat Branch's best numbers. I predict 65 Catches, 1200 yards, 11 TDs. If Brady really is the guy that lobbied for Moss, and Moss is as excited about being a Patriot as he's said, and he has 70% of the talent he had a few years ago, then I think those are the numbers we will see.

 
Let's say you asked a few years ago what would you expect Moss to do at age 30. It's not exactly an easy question to answer, but I think we can make a rough guess.

An age 30 Moss should be inferior to a Moss in his prime. Most receivers slow down by 30, and simply aren't as good. His third best year was for 1413 yards. A receiver in his 10th year should put up about 87% of that (based on some numbers I just ran). That puts him at 1,232 yards...assuming he's still in Minnesota, with that sort of supporting cast and QB play, and typical decline for your average receiver.

Assuming you think the NE situation is worse for fantasy receivers than the Min situation -- an interesting question, I think -- there's little reason to project anything north of 1200 yards. Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.

So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?

 
Chase Stuart said:
So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?
Click to expand...
Worse. Partly because he was the main option outside of Carter and the Patriot offense has always spread the ball around. But, mostly because I don't see how they could have been any higher just due to historical upper limits on WR production.
 
Chase Stuart said:
Let's say you asked a few years ago what would you expect Moss to do at age 30. It's not exactly an easy question to answer, but I think we can make a rough guess.An age 30 Moss should be inferior to a Moss in his prime. Most receivers slow down by 30, and simply aren't as good. His third best year was for 1413 yards. A receiver in his 10th year should put up about 87% of that (based on some numbers I just ran). That puts him at 1,232 yards...assuming he's still in Minnesota, with that sort of supporting cast and QB play, and typical decline for your average receiver.Assuming you think the NE situation is worse for fantasy receivers than the Min situation -- an interesting question, I think -- there's little reason to project anything north of 1200 yards. Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?
Click to expand...
I don't have a comment or an answer, but I do have another question. Terrell Owens was also 30 when he moved on to PHI. While there are not a ton of perfect fits, Andre Rison was 30 when he moved to KC and had a bit of a resurgence and Andre Milller went to DEN and had a career year. Ownes is probably the best comparison to Moss, and he seemed to do well for the Eagles (other issues not withstanding).
 
radballs said:
Chase Stuart said:
So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?
Click to expand...
Worse. Partly because he was the main option outside of Carter and the Patriot offense has always spread the ball around. But, mostly because I don't see how they could have been any higher just due to historical upper limits on WR production.
Click to expand...
I also think the Patriots defense will hurt him quite a bit. The Patriots throw the ball about 30 times less per year than that Vikings team, and also throw to the TEs and RBs a bit less too. (Some of that is because they didn't have Randy Moss, but part of it is because they have used the short passing game when they didn't have a good runner. In 2004, when the Patriots had a great defense and a great running game, the Patriots attempted only 485 passes.)But...does the upgrade from Culpepper/Cunningham/George to Brady, and the trade off Carter for Stallworth help the 1998-2003 Moss get better numbers?

 
Boy its hard to project what this guy can do based upon on-the-field performance since everyone knows he hasn't given a full effort in some time. There's a certain personality type where the person believes they are the best at what they do and will only give maximum effort if they think they are on a winning team. I've dealt with people like that and I know the type well. I believe Randy Moss is one of the types of people. He is going to definitely be on a winner with the Patriots. I believe he showed he still has the speed. While I am skeptical of his ability to stay motivated for multiple seasons, I believe he will have a strong season.

88 - 1320 - 13

 
David Yudkin said:
Chase Stuart said:
Let's say you asked a few years ago what would you expect Moss to do at age 30. It's not exactly an easy question to answer, but I think we can make a rough guess.An age 30 Moss should be inferior to a Moss in his prime. Most receivers slow down by 30, and simply aren't as good. His third best year was for 1413 yards. A receiver in his 10th year should put up about 87% of that (based on some numbers I just ran). That puts him at 1,232 yards...assuming he's still in Minnesota, with that sort of supporting cast and QB play, and typical decline for your average receiver.Assuming you think the NE situation is worse for fantasy receivers than the Min situation -- an interesting question, I think -- there's little reason to project anything north of 1200 yards. Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?
Click to expand...
I don't have a comment or an answer, but I do have another question. Terrell Owens was also 30 when he moved on to PHI. While there are not a ton of perfect fits, Andre Rison was 30 when he moved to KC and had a bit of a resurgence and Andre Milller went to DEN and had a career year. Ownes is probably the best comparison to Moss, and he seemed to do well for the Eagles (other issues not withstanding).
Click to expand...
There's no question there. ;)There will be some ups and downs. But I think it's pretty safe to say that 30 year old WRs are worse than mid-20s WRs, ceteris paribus.
 
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Chase Stuart said:
radballs said:
Chase Stuart said:
So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?
Click to expand...
Worse. Partly because he was the main option outside of Carter and the Patriot offense has always spread the ball around. But, mostly because I don't see how they could have been any higher just due to historical upper limits on WR production.
Click to expand...
I also think the Patriots defense will hurt him quite a bit. The Patriots throw the ball about 30 times less per year than that Vikings team, and also throw to the TEs and RBs a bit less too. (Some of that is because they didn't have Randy Moss, but part of it is because they have used the short passing game when they didn't have a good runner. In 2004, when the Patriots had a great defense and a great running game, the Patriots attempted only 485 passes.)But...does the upgrade from Culpepper/Cunningham/George to Brady, and the trade off Carter for Stallworth help the 1998-2003 Moss get better numbers?
Click to expand...
I haven't paid attention in great detail, but I haven't seen anyone predicting Moss for years on par with (or better than) his 98-03 numbers in Minnesota.
 
BGP said:
Boy its hard to project what this guy can do based upon on-the-field performance since everyone knows he hasn't given a full effort in some time. There's a certain personality type where the person believes they are the best at what they do and will only give maximum effort if they think they are on a winning team. I've dealt with people like that and I know the type well. I believe Randy Moss is one of the types of people. He is going to definitely be on a winner with the Patriots. I believe he showed he still has the speed. While I am skeptical of his ability to stay motivated for multiple seasons, I believe he will have a strong season.88 - 1320 - 13
Click to expand...
What do you think the mid-20s year old Moss would have done on the 2007 Patriots?
 
Chase Stuart said:
But...does the upgrade from Culpepper/Cunningham/George to Brady, and the trade off Carter for Stallworth help the 1998-2003 Moss get better numbers?
Click to expand...
I just don't see it. How could they have been much higher? Granted, Brady's much better than any of those QBs, but "1998-2003" would have been double and triple teamed and Stallworth would benefit from that.
 
David Yudkin said:
Chase Stuart said:
radballs said:
Chase Stuart said:
So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?
Click to expand...
Worse. Partly because he was the main option outside of Carter and the Patriot offense has always spread the ball around. But, mostly because I don't see how they could have been any higher just due to historical upper limits on WR production.
Click to expand...
I also think the Patriots defense will hurt him quite a bit. The Patriots throw the ball about 30 times less per year than that Vikings team, and also throw to the TEs and RBs a bit less too. (Some of that is because they didn't have Randy Moss, but part of it is because they have used the short passing game when they didn't have a good runner. In 2004, when the Patriots had a great defense and a great running game, the Patriots attempted only 485 passes.)But...does the upgrade from Culpepper/Cunningham/George to Brady, and the trade off Carter for Stallworth help the 1998-2003 Moss get better numbers?
Click to expand...
I haven't paid attention in great detail, but I haven't seen anyone predicting Moss for years on par with (or better than) his 98-03 numbers in Minnesota.
Click to expand...
There are three variables from the mid-20s Moss to this year's Moss.1) The change from MIN to NWE

2) Moss being mid-20s to age 30

3) Moss' motivation/health

Number 3 will get responses all over the place. I'm OK with that. Number 2 is pretty noncontroversial -- there's a built in decline there. I think most people would drop that by about 10-15%. Number 1 is what I'm trying to look at now.

If you're seeing people predicting numbers within 10-15% of The Moss Years, then they're thinking either Moss' motivation/health is better than ever (seems somewhat unlikely) or the change from Minnesota to New England is a good one (seems more likely; although debatable). That debate is what I'm interested in.

 
radballs said:
Chase Stuart said:
But...does the upgrade from Culpepper/Cunningham/George to Brady, and the trade off Carter for Stallworth help the 1998-2003 Moss get better numbers?
Click to expand...
I just don't see it. How could they have been much higher? Granted, Brady's much better than any of those QBs, but "1998-2003" would have been double and triple teamed and Stallworth would benefit from that.
Click to expand...
Wasn't Moss double and triple teamed anyway when he put up those numbers? Moss was pretty incredible in 2002-2003, when Carter was not on the team.
 
Chase Stuart said:
David Yudkin said:
Chase Stuart said:
Let's say you asked a few years ago what would you expect Moss to do at age 30. It's not exactly an easy question to answer, but I think we can make a rough guess.An age 30 Moss should be inferior to a Moss in his prime. Most receivers slow down by 30, and simply aren't as good. His third best year was for 1413 yards. A receiver in his 10th year should put up about 87% of that (based on some numbers I just ran). That puts him at 1,232 yards...assuming he's still in Minnesota, with that sort of supporting cast and QB play, and typical decline for your average receiver.Assuming you think the NE situation is worse for fantasy receivers than the Min situation -- an interesting question, I think -- there's little reason to project anything north of 1200 yards. Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?
Click to expand...
I don't have a comment or an answer, but I do have another question. Terrell Owens was also 30 when he moved on to PHI. While there are not a ton of perfect fits, Andre Rison was 30 when he moved to KC and had a bit of a resurgence and Andre Milller went to DEN and had a career year. Ownes is probably the best comparison to Moss, and he seemed to do well for the Eagles (other issues not withstanding).
Click to expand...
There's no question there. ;)There will be some ups and downs. But I think it's pretty safe to say that 30 year old WRs are worse than mid-20s WRs, ceteris paribus.
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My inferred question was how is the Moss to NE scenario any different than Owens to PHI? The situations are similar, as the following would fit both situations:- "They spread the ball around"- "They did so well running the ball last year"- "They don't throw as much as the Vikings did"- "He's never had a QB like Brady/McNabb"- "His opportunities will be limited by a Top 3 defense"Now I don't expect the Patriots to abandon the run like the Eagles did and (and have done since), but the situations are some what similar. The Pats at this point have better receiving options than the Eagles did behind Owens, but the framework was pretty similar to NE's IMO.
 
Chase Stuart said:
BGP said:
Boy its hard to project what this guy can do based upon on-the-field performance since everyone knows he hasn't given a full effort in some time. There's a certain personality type where the person believes they are the best at what they do and will only give maximum effort if they think they are on a winning team. I've dealt with people like that and I know the type well. I believe Randy Moss is one of the types of people. He is going to definitely be on a winner with the Patriots. I believe he showed he still has the speed. While I am skeptical of his ability to stay motivated for multiple seasons, I believe he will have a strong season.88 - 1320 - 13
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What do you think the mid-20s year old Moss would have done on the 2007 Patriots?
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Somewhere in the neighborhood of a career year.
 
As for Chase's desire for passionate debate, I think the Pats defense far and away trumps the The Moss Years™ Minnesota defense. I don't see the Pats getting into 42-39 shootouts or allowing 440 points on a season. That alone would diminish Moss' production wether he was 25, 30, or 35.

 
Chase your assuming a lot of things that I have not seen basis for.

You called Moss an average WR for one. If your going to use similarity scores as a basis at least recognise that Moss is not an average WR. He is a standard that other WR have been compared to as an aspiration for thier success.

Your also saying that WR at age 30 are inferior to WR age 26-28? I do not think that is a fact at all. Not sure what you are sampling to come to this conclusion.

Moss is the best WR if he wants to be. He seems to want to be now with Brady and the Pats. Brady is an excellent QB. This is a sick combination. I am still pinching myself as I thought this was too good to be true.

Staying away from projections here.. Moss could still beat Jerry Rice's single season record yet.

 
David Yudkin said:
Chase Stuart said:
Let's say you asked a few years ago what would you expect Moss to do at age 30. It's not exactly an easy question to answer, but I think we can make a rough guess.An age 30 Moss should be inferior to a Moss in his prime. Most receivers slow down by 30, and simply aren't as good. His third best year was for 1413 yards. A receiver in his 10th year should put up about 87% of that (based on some numbers I just ran). That puts him at 1,232 yards...assuming he's still in Minnesota, with that sort of supporting cast and QB play, and typical decline for your average receiver.Assuming you think the NE situation is worse for fantasy receivers than the Min situation -- an interesting question, I think -- there's little reason to project anything north of 1200 yards. Because there's lots of evidence that Moss is declining at a steeper rate than your average elite wide receiver.So let's open this up for questions. Let's say a mid-20s year old Moss was put on the 2007 New England roster. What do you think his numbers would be? Better or worse than the typical Moss years from 1998-2003?
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I don't have a comment or an answer, but I do have another question. Terrell Owens was also 30 when he moved on to PHI. While there are not a ton of perfect fits, Andre Rison was 30 when he moved to KC and had a bit of a resurgence and Andre Milller went to DEN and had a career year. Ownes is probably the best comparison to Moss, and he seemed to do well for the Eagles (other issues not withstanding).
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Owens didn't show a major decline in speed or ability in the years leading up to his departure. I think that is the key that most people projecting 1300/12 type numbers are missing. Moss was never the same after his season was cut short his last year in Minnesota. Sure the guy can still jump like no other, but without the elite speed how good can he be? I don't think you could ever consider Moss a route technician like Harrison, and he is not the physical gamebreaker like Owens. He really has lost a key part of his game.Also want to add that New England is not as big of an upgrade of situation as many want to believe. The Pat's not only have a history of spreading the ball around (last 1,000 yard WR anyone?), they have a solid defense which was already mentioned several times, they play in a cold weather/outdoor division, and they like to run the ball and pass to the TE a lot in the redzone. Anything else I'm missing?
 
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It's pretty easy to tell who the Pats fans are in this thread. A lot of the same ones who have bashed Moss for years as well.

 
Biabreakable said:
Chase your assuming a lot of things that I have not seen basis for.You called Moss an average WR for one. If your going to use similarity scores as a basis at least recognise that Moss is not an average WR. He is a standard that other WR have been compared to as an aspiration for thier success.Your also saying that WR at age 30 are inferior to WR age 26-28? I do not think that is a fact at all. Not sure what you are sampling to come to this conclusion.Moss is the best WR if he wants to be. He seems to want to be now with Brady and the Pats. Brady is an excellent QB. This is a sick combination. I am still pinching myself as I thought this was too good to be true.Staying away from projections here.. Moss could still beat Jerry Rice's single season record yet.
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I can agree. Brady didn't seem to have a problem finding David Freaking Terrell in college early and often, and I don't see why he won't find Moss at every opportunity he gets. When Brady is throwing, this is how he chooses his target, 1) How open the guy is, and 2) How much he trusts the guys hands. I've seen Brady NOT throw to a guy and give the play another second to develop just to throw to the guy who is on fire at the moment, and he will give Randy time to make a play. Plenty of WRs play well into their 30s and do great, and I see no reason for Moss to not succeed.
 
Biabreakable said:
Staying away from projections here.. Moss could still beat Jerry Rice's single season record yet.
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While anything is possible, I just can't see this happening.Moss is already 30 and is:873 recptions behind Rice12195 receiving yards behind Rice96 receiving TDs behind MossSo basically, if Moss played through age 40 he would have to average 87.3, 1219.5, and 9.6 to tie.
 
David Yudkin said:
Biabreakable said:
Staying away from projections here.. Moss could still beat Jerry Rice's single season record yet.
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While anything is possible, I just can't see this happening.Moss is already 30 and is:873 recptions behind Rice12195 receiving yards behind Rice96 receiving TDs behind MossSo basically, if Moss played through age 40 he would have to average 87.3, 1219.5, and 9.6 to tie.
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I was refering to Rice's 22 TD season.
 
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