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Does anyone here still advocate taking a TE early? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Gatorman
- Start date
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
I disagree. Gates did not live up to this ranking, and some of the RBs or WR selected, even though they were in a lower "tier" outperformed their draft spot. Gates doesn't justify his.Joe used to say that he hated having a top pick (back when he played FF) because the upside of the top pick is limited. I say the same thing with gates in the third. I'd rather have a second tier guy in the 5th or 6th (hell 8th) round than the top guy in the third (even if you are sure he is the top guy).
Mr. Sparkle
Footballguy
True. Also in leagues that use PPR, and TE mandatory leagues, you should take a quality TE in the 3rd. That is 80-90pts in receptions right there.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I've never owned Gates, and probably never will until he's past his primie, lol, for that very reason. It's worked out pretty well for me too.By the same token, you can find a lower tier RB in the lower rounds who outperforms his draft spot while sewing up the #1 TE and giving yourself a big lineup advantage.
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
how likely is that? It is all a crapshoot, but you put yourself in a better position to draft "the guy" in round 3 who jumps up than in round 6
John Mamula
Moderator
Of course. Until people get the notion out of their mind that some arbitrary baseline doesn't help you and that you can often get more value from a team perspective by looking at points per position across all rounds of a draft, people will take Gates in the third. Just like they will take Manning in the first.
Robbie Cooper
Footballguy
10 team league with mandatory 5 keepers (no more, no less than five, and no limit on how long you can keep any particular player on your roster).
Our league is a TE mandatory league. Additionally, we only reward PPR to the TE position (not to RBs or WRs).
Every year, Gates, Heap, and Shockey are retained as keepers (Gonzo has too, though I suspect his owner will cut him this year). So, in our league there is still a lot of perceived -- if not actual --- value in having a top TE.
Our league is a TE mandatory league. Additionally, we only reward PPR to the TE position (not to RBs or WRs).
Every year, Gates, Heap, and Shockey are retained as keepers (Gonzo has too, though I suspect his owner will cut him this year). So, in our league there is still a lot of perceived -- if not actual --- value in having a top TE.
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moleculo
Footballguy
guys like gonzo and Sharpe were worth an early pick because there really were no other pass catching TE's at the time. In 2001, gonzo and Sharpe were the only TE's with >750 yards, or 70 catches.
In 2006, there were 6 TE's with >750 yards and 4 with > 70 catches.
Because there are more guys who can play, the TE relative value has got to be watered down some and it probably isn't worth a high pick anymore.
In 2006, there were 6 TE's with >750 yards and 4 with > 70 catches.
Because there are more guys who can play, the TE relative value has got to be watered down some and it probably isn't worth a high pick anymore.
John Mamula
Moderator
this is the same argument mnnnglvrs give. just because you can do something doesn't mean it puts you in the best position to win going into the draft. it may work out, but it is a big gamble.i think that is the thing that gets me. people who take gates in the third (or whoever the top te is at the time) act like that player will:1. be #12. be #1 at such a high margin to take him by sacrificing a RB or WR3. think that there is absolutely no risk in doing soi think if someone said that they were taking a high risk move to get the #1 player at their position, it would at least acknowledge that they understand what tradeoff they are making.In my semi-redraft $$ league, the team that has Gates has at least made the playoffs the past 3 years, if not had the best record in the league. Usually he is off the board at the end of round 3 (around 24-30th player taken). Funny story, in 2005 I thought I was smart and took Gonzo before Gates (remember his 1-week suspension to start the season?).
In a TE-required league, guys like Winslow, Heap, Shockey, Crumpler are still serviceable tight ends that will get you respectable production.
In a TE-required league, guys like Winslow, Heap, Shockey, Crumpler are still serviceable tight ends that will get you respectable production.
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dparker713
Footballguy
Its entirely dependent on how the TE scores. In certain years, the gap to the top 1 or 2 TEs is significant enough to justify the high draft spot. In other years, not so much. Its a risky move, but selecting the 20th RB always has a fair amount of risk as well.
Frankly, you need to take each year and each draft as they come. Any hard and fast rules only lead to you missing out on opportunities.
Frankly, you need to take each year and each draft as they come. Any hard and fast rules only lead to you missing out on opportunities.
John Mamula
Moderator
fyi to all: stating what happens in your league is not an acceptable rebuttal to an argument. considering nobody knows the talent in your league (or if your league even exists) we need to do better than this.
just because everyone in my league drafts a kicker in the first round doesn't automatically make gramatica a steal on the turn.
just because everyone in my league drafts a kicker in the first round doesn't automatically make gramatica a steal on the turn.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I would definitely consider Gates in the third if I drafted two RBs in the first two rounds and the top 4-5 WRs were gone.
Zoomanji
Footballguy
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I think one should also be a little more clear.......taking a TE in the 3rd is extremely vague.In our Survivor Leagues right here in our Mock Draft Forums at FBG are 16 teams and award 2 points per reception. If I'm drafting at 3.14.......taking Gates would be an outstanding pick..There are circumstances such as league size and scoring where taking Gates in the 3rd would warrant the selection.If you're talking about a 10 team league, where there's no signficant bonuses given to a TE or even worse, a TE doesn't even have a slot and you have to use the TE at a WR slot, then the answer is no, I would not select him in the 3rd.
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Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Even in a situation where TE gets 2 points per reception and all other positions get 1 Gates is a risk.TE 2-7 are all about the same, and most could be TE #1 if things break right. If you draft TE #4 in teh 8th round (as TE #10 off the board)you have done a solid drafting job.Face it, in FF you have to hit on a player (or 2) that outperform their draft spot. At round 3, Gates has little to no chance of doing that.LT outperformed his draft spot at #1 overall (and moreso if you got him at 2 or *gasp* 3), did gates outperform #36? #24? somewhere in between?
Warpig
Footballguy
I could justify taking a TE in the 3rd round only if his name were Gates, Crumpler, or Heap (maybe Shockey).
The reason I say this is because we know those guys are the main receiving threat on their teams.
Sure, you can go with a 2nd tier WR or RB, but with all the RBBC out there, if you don't get one of the top 5 backs or so, then you have a better chance of finding a contributor later on than you would finding a TE that could put up the numbers any of the TE's mentioned above normally put up.
And we all know you can usually find WR's on the waiver that catch fire.
The reason I say this is because we know those guys are the main receiving threat on their teams.
Sure, you can go with a 2nd tier WR or RB, but with all the RBBC out there, if you don't get one of the top 5 backs or so, then you have a better chance of finding a contributor later on than you would finding a TE that could put up the numbers any of the TE's mentioned above normally put up.
And we all know you can usually find WR's on the waiver that catch fire.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Sure, it's a risk but IMO with 2 points a reception one worth taking. Many picks are risks........taking Travis Henry in the first round this year is a risk.Even in a situation where TE gets 2 points per reception and all other positions get 1 Gates is a risk.TE 2-7 are all about the same, and most could be TE #1 if things break right. If you draft TE #4 in teh 8th round (as TE #10 off the board)you have done a solid drafting job.Face it, in FF you have to hit on a player (or 2) that outperform their draft spot. At round 3, Gates has little to no chance of doing that.LT outperformed his draft spot at #1 overall (and moreso if you got him at 2 or *gasp* 3), did gates outperform #36? #24? somewhere in between?
massraider
Footballguy
I hope no one in my leagues reads this post.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
It depends on who you're drafting with. If it is a guppie league, then yes, I could see going with Gates in the 3rd, because the likelihood of someone making a mistake and letting a quality player drop to you in later rounds is much higher.If you're in a shark-type league, then it goes against conventional wisdom to take Gates in the 3rd when there is better value @TE in the later rounds.every draft is different, and position has a major effect. i would definitely not look at TE in the early to middle of round 3. i usually start off with RB, RB. then look for my WR1 in the 3rd. if gates is still there at the end of the third, it probably means the WR's i like are gone.
if i'm going to be weak at WR anyway, might as well justify it with gates.
if i'm going to be weak at WR anyway, might as well justify it with gates.
kensat30
Footballguy
If by taking a TE early, you mean the 6th or so round, I'm all for it. This "big pack" of quality TEs I see being referred to are really only 5 or 6 guys year in and year out. Who here drafted Randy McMichael/Ben Watson/Ben Troupe/Dallas Clark etc and suffered for it? I know I was lining up Owen Daniels for a few games in one league. TE can't be ignored.
And I think taking Gates in the 3rd is really not a bad move if you can land value later in the draft at WR and RB. But that can really be said of reaching on any non RB/WR position and even Peyton Manning as well. Find value later and you will be fine. Harder said than done. The main difference I see between Peyton in the 1st/Gates in the 3rd, is that there are fewer reliable TE options out there compared to QB, and that the TE can possibly considered a difference making position even today when you have someone capable of 1000+ yards and 12+ TDs on your squad.
Would I take Gates in the third? Probably not. A third round pick is too rich for my blood, considering you are passing up RB#2s and WR#1s to get him. If I know I can get a Shockey or a Heap three rounds later, I like my team a lot better with those guys. Bottomline, earliest I would take Gates is the late third, and then only if I liked the WRs/RBs I would see in the early 4th. Ideally, I think Gates makes an excellent 4th round pick.
2 RBs
1 WR
Gates
Going into the 5th round is not a team I would feel bad about.
----
I know "maximizing value" out of your draft picks has been thrown around in regards to drafting TEs, but something has to be said for getting a player you know will produce. I used to advocate drafting a couple TEs later and hoping something sticks, but not anymore. The rise in the top tier of TEs has really made drafting sleepers at TE a potentially huge liability to your lineup. It's not like QBs where you can pull a rabbit ouf of your ### in the 12th round year in and year out.
And I think taking Gates in the 3rd is really not a bad move if you can land value later in the draft at WR and RB. But that can really be said of reaching on any non RB/WR position and even Peyton Manning as well. Find value later and you will be fine. Harder said than done. The main difference I see between Peyton in the 1st/Gates in the 3rd, is that there are fewer reliable TE options out there compared to QB, and that the TE can possibly considered a difference making position even today when you have someone capable of 1000+ yards and 12+ TDs on your squad.
Would I take Gates in the third? Probably not. A third round pick is too rich for my blood, considering you are passing up RB#2s and WR#1s to get him. If I know I can get a Shockey or a Heap three rounds later, I like my team a lot better with those guys. Bottomline, earliest I would take Gates is the late third, and then only if I liked the WRs/RBs I would see in the early 4th. Ideally, I think Gates makes an excellent 4th round pick.
2 RBs
1 WR
Gates
Going into the 5th round is not a team I would feel bad about.
----
I know "maximizing value" out of your draft picks has been thrown around in regards to drafting TEs, but something has to be said for getting a player you know will produce. I used to advocate drafting a couple TEs later and hoping something sticks, but not anymore. The rise in the top tier of TEs has really made drafting sleepers at TE a potentially huge liability to your lineup. It's not like QBs where you can pull a rabbit ouf of your ### in the 12th round year in and year out.
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It's still about maximizing your lineup potential, and having a guy like Gates can do that. It also all depends on your league, your scoring system, etc. as others have said.
And if you can't assume Gates will be the #1 TE then you can't assume that you're going to find "the guy" who jumps up and performs above his draft position. I think we can all agree that it's a crapshoot in the end.
But I would submit that drafting Gates and counting on him to perform as the #1 TE is a safer bet than drafting the 20th RB and counting on him to perform as a #10-15.
And if you can't assume Gates will be the #1 TE then you can't assume that you're going to find "the guy" who jumps up and performs above his draft position. I think we can all agree that it's a crapshoot in the end.
But I would submit that drafting Gates and counting on him to perform as the #1 TE is a safer bet than drafting the 20th RB and counting on him to perform as a #10-15.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
This is the issue right here. People act as if it is the safe play. It is not. It forces you to reach at other positions, denies you flexibility, and puts you in bad shape if your are wrong with a pick or two in the middle. If you draft Gates in 3, you need a specific players targetted through about round 7 or 8. You cannot let value fall to you, because you are catching up at other positions. It can be a great move, but it risk filled and requires expert drafting in future rounds and a little bit of luck.
That's true, but if your top priority is upside and value, you'll end up never taking top tier players because they have less upside. Nice way to finish 5thI gamble in positions where I actually have a shot at getting a steal. Those are QB, WR. That is where all my extra roster spots go. RB and TE are where I go for consistent high performers since there is much less turnover in the top tier.
John Mamula
Moderator
is there?
:(
The guy who won my league went Manning/Harrison out of the 12 spot.....doesn't mean I'd do that.
John Mamula
Moderator
just curious if people who advocate taking gates in the 3rd have looked at the impact of their prospective draft and how it impacts them during bye weeks at other positions like RB and WR in addition to what (if any) point gain they have from taking a TE in the 3rd and another position in the 7th compared to another position in the 3rd and a TE in the 7th.
Here are some other players you could have drafted last year around Gates's ADP:Chris ChambersEven in a situation where TE gets 2 points per reception and all other positions get 1 Gates is a risk.
Warrick Dunn
Julius Jones
Are you saying you'd rather have picked one of those players than take the "risk" of Gates?
Baloney. If you hit on two players that outperform their draft spot but also draft two high-round busts, you're not any better off. On the other hand, if every single player you draft outperforms their draft spot by just a small amount, you could be in the Super Bowl.You talk about Gates being a risk, but avoiding Gates and drafting a WR that might outperform the draft spot, but might finish below WR25, is an even bigger risk.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I think you need to define what "taking him early" means to you. If you have the first pick in the third round of a 12 team league that's the #25 pick overall. Taking him with the last pick in the third round if you're in a 16 team league you're talking about the #48 pick. So imo just saying "taking Gates in the third round" doesn't mean much if you you're talking about somewhere between pick #25-#48. I think most of us can agree Gates belongs somewhere in that range.
BTW FBG "expert rankings" has Gates #22 overall. That's with one ranking that is by far the lowest at #38 by Shick!, and three rankings below #20. IMO there are 4 TE's that are capable of a great year where there are almost 30 WR's capable of having a great season.
BTW FBG "expert rankings" has Gates #22 overall. That's with one ranking that is by far the lowest at #38 by Shick!, and three rankings below #20. IMO there are 4 TE's that are capable of a great year where there are almost 30 WR's capable of having a great season.
TEs 2-5 were all w/in 13 pts (195 - 182, Gates scored 217) of each other last year and their ADP will likely be rounds 6-8. You are giving way too much up by grabbing Gates in the 3rd:Gates point total = 217, which was about the same as:QB17RB17WR17Obviously, it's not a perfect comparison, but even using strict VBD principles (simple baseline)and not even considering ADP of other positions 13WRs should have gone before Gates according to 2006#s (PPR).
What's more likely?A TE late round or waiver wire pickup outperforming GatesA WR/RB late round or waiver wire pickup outperforming a 3rd round RB20 or WR 10
BoltBacker
Footballguy
FBG's has Gonzo #53, Heap #54, Shockey #63 and Crumpler #65.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I LOVE this thread.
Love the holier than thou attitude that is so pervasive in this hobby (very entertaining).
Love the broad generalized statements based on very sketchy assumptions.
Love the fact that threads like this keep "off-position" studs' values as low as they are (in certain scenarios).
Love the Joe quote about not wanting the #1 pick to support this argument. Because God knows people who had the #1 pick last year were REALLY hating life.
Love when guys talk about the "risk" of a guy who in an off-position has produced monster stats every year for three years straight, compared to the risk of taking a 20th ranked RB and then say "yeah, you can get a guy who outperforms his draft position there". So let me get this straight, when you pick guys who outperform their draft position you are going to do well? BRILLIANT. Why didn't I think of that? Never any mention of course of the DISTINCT possibility that you get exactly SQUAT out of that draft slot with that 3rd tier RB. Here's an even MORE mind-boggling option - draft lower tier RB in round four! Maybe HE will outperform his draft position!
In SOME leagues, yes a 3rd rounder would be too high for Gates. But lineup requirments and league size (primarily), and to a lesser degree scoring and roster limitations, are HUGE factors in the value of a guy like that. Making blanket statements about guppies drafting a TE in the 3rd WITHOUT discussing league parameters is about as guppy as it gets. What's next, an offer in big bold print to join your league where the REAL fantasy experts play?
Love the holier than thou attitude that is so pervasive in this hobby (very entertaining).
Love the broad generalized statements based on very sketchy assumptions.
Love the fact that threads like this keep "off-position" studs' values as low as they are (in certain scenarios).
Love the Joe quote about not wanting the #1 pick to support this argument. Because God knows people who had the #1 pick last year were REALLY hating life.
Love when guys talk about the "risk" of a guy who in an off-position has produced monster stats every year for three years straight, compared to the risk of taking a 20th ranked RB and then say "yeah, you can get a guy who outperforms his draft position there". So let me get this straight, when you pick guys who outperform their draft position you are going to do well? BRILLIANT. Why didn't I think of that? Never any mention of course of the DISTINCT possibility that you get exactly SQUAT out of that draft slot with that 3rd tier RB. Here's an even MORE mind-boggling option - draft lower tier RB in round four! Maybe HE will outperform his draft position!
In SOME leagues, yes a 3rd rounder would be too high for Gates. But lineup requirments and league size (primarily), and to a lesser degree scoring and roster limitations, are HUGE factors in the value of a guy like that. Making blanket statements about guppies drafting a TE in the 3rd WITHOUT discussing league parameters is about as guppy as it gets. What's next, an offer in big bold print to join your league where the REAL fantasy experts play?
Going back and looking at last years data (for PPR) Shockey, Gonzo, Heap were all late 5th ADPs. If you advocate getting a TE early, better to grab one of those in the 5th than Gates in the 3rd
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Even if you're only in a 12 team league you're going to miss out on both Gonzo and Heap in the fifth if your pck is in the second half of the odd numbered rounds so you'd have to spend a 4th to get either of those two.In a 16 team league you might not even be able to get either Gonzo/Heap in the fourth.
i agree. take a TE or QB in the 1st 3 rounds, and it seems like you are playing catch-up for 3 or 4 rounds.
Phurfur
Footballguy
Bingo!This is just one example but I use the same statagy every year.In my PPR League last year Gates went early 3rd, I picked up Winslow in the 11th. Gates - 208 pointsWinslow - 185 pointsYou tell me where the value is.
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
VBD & VBD rank of Antonio Gates for the last three years. This is based on FBG scoring. With PPR his VBD is even higher.
2004: 103 (#10 overall)
2005: 93 (#8 overall)
2006: 65 (#17 overall)
So, um, yes. I still believe in taking Gates in the third round.
2004: 103 (#10 overall)
2005: 93 (#8 overall)
2006: 65 (#17 overall)
So, um, yes. I still believe in taking Gates in the third round.
BigRed
Footballguy
GB auction drafts Similar debate though, ie how much to pay for Gates, basically. IMO most overpay; I won't. I've learned the hard way to become a firm believer in not "wasting" that money and buying cheapies or at most getting 2 mid-tier guys (still less combined than what Gates cost) and looking for one to break out. Not that I wouldn't love to have Gates, but he isn't worth what he goes for.
Similar debate though, ie how much to pay for Gates, basically. IMO most overpay; I won't. I've learned the hard way to become a firm believer in not "wasting" that money and buying cheapies or at most getting 2 mid-tier guys (still less combined than what Gates cost) and looking for one to break out. Not that I wouldn't love to have Gates, but he isn't worth what he goes for.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
Wanna Play in my SUPER MEGA BIG MONEY league MR. ANGRY GUPPY?Oh wait, you do. Nevermind.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
VBD? What's that? Must be something for guppies. I base my draft on getting the best value for all of my draft positions! You can't do that by risking your 3rd round pick on a guy like Gates.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Mr. Angry Guppy has a real nice ring to it. Is a name change in order?Do I seem angry? Really, I'm more annoyed and amused at the same time.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
Actually though, this is where we could have meaning conversation, though I doubt we will. Bagger was bringing up the point that you don't necessarily get the best team strictly by drafting the player with the highest VBD numerical value. You have to take a more holistic approach in terms of building your entire team. Dodd touches on this as well when he, in his perfect draft articles, often ignores VBD values and goes with running backs. Unfortunately, this conversation usually quickly becomes a useless back and forth of "Look at the big picture, idiot" vs. the "Look at the VBD value, idiot." It is too bad.In redrafts, I have seen more bad teams than good teams with convential draft picks drafting Gates in the 3rd. In mocks,I find it hard, even with a prepared strategy, to get a good balance if you draft a QB or a TE early. The teams that I have seen have the most success taking Gates in third have often traded back out of round 1 or 2 and picked up additional picks iin rounds 3-5. These owners have both an elite talent and more flexibility.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
I think your annoyance has crossover potential into the anger arena. Name change seems essential.
kensat30
Footballguy
Gates also had what could be described as a "down" year last year with his 70 reception, 900 yard 9 TD performance. In the prior two years, in 15 game seasons no less, Gates averaged 85/1050/11.5. I mean you could factor in Tomlinson breaking the TD record last year and regressing to the mean this year and therefore project more TDs for Gates. Or you could factor in that he had a first year starting QB who should be more experienced this year and you could add more yards. Or you could factor in that one of the starting WRs from last year is no longer with the team and Gates will be leaned on more heavily and you can add more receptions. Just look back two short years ago, and you have a TE that is capable of producing right up there with the stud WRs in the league. The man broke the freaking TD record for TEs in his second year. Flirts with 1,000 yards season in and season out. His yards per catch climbs every year and he is starting to approach WR status in that respect. What was a 10 point difference between TE1 and TE2 last year, could just as easily be 50 points this year.----If we're talking drafting Gates/Plaxico Burress/Donald Driver in the 3rd/4th/5th versus Roy Williams/Burress/Shockey, is the tradeoff of drafting Gates so monumental? Where is the major sacrifice being made? Maybe against a RB/RB/RB/WR drafter there is a difference in depth, but then again is that team maximizing value across positions with his early picks? And is the value in players in the mid-late 3rd versus the early-mid 4th really that different once we get out of the "stud" territory for WRs and enter into the "sketchy" area for RBs as well? That seems like the perfect area to draft a proven guy like Gates for me. Right around picks #30-#40. Again, If I looked at my roster after 4 rounds and it included Gates, 2 RBs, and a WR I don't really think I am that far behind the 8-ball at all compared to the teams that went RB/RB/WR/WR, or even RB/RB/RB/WR.
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