Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
My gut feeling is that the majority of fantasy football drafts will have him going #2 overall by August, if they don't already. What say you? 
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Steven Jackson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Gold Plated Nails
- Start date
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Poor options. Would have voted #1 but there isn't a thing "lucky" about L.T. He's just that good.
-OZ-
Footballguy
"lucky" or "blessed"?
Family Matters
Footballguy
The way I see it:
1. LT
2. LJ
3. S Jax.
Despite rumors to the contrary, LJ is alive and well. He's still the man at #2 although I do have S Jax a close 3rd.
1. LT
2. LJ
3. S Jax.
Despite rumors to the contrary, LJ is alive and well. He's still the man at #2 although I do have S Jax a close 3rd.
SSOG
Moderator
I give it 2 weeks.Fake Edit: it took an unsustainable number of carries for LJ to be #2 last year. No way can he keep up that pace- and even if he did, I'd still bet against him finishing #2, since his offensive line is falling to pieces in front of him. Losing one HoF blocker cost him .9 yards per carry. Any guesses what losing a second will do?
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
I forsee bad news for LJ this season. I'm not saying he is off my draft board, at some point you'd draft anyone, but he is a near certainy to be picked in the top 3 of 99% of redrafts, and I won't pick him there.
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
Lucky was a joke. The only thing Silly is people actually picking SJ to be drafted ahead of LT.
Family Matters
Footballguy
Your right. The KC line is horrible. Just horrible. No way they can keep it together now. LJ will be lucky to finish RB12 and that's if he doesn't fall down before he crossed the line.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
He's #1 on my board, but not because "LT is lucky".
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Who would you pick ahead of him? Gore, Bush?
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
I would also put SJax ahead of LJ. I think the Chiefs have a much harder schedule along with an offense that is on a down slide.
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
Seriously? I'd like to hear your logic to picking SJ ahead of LT.
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
Gore. The guy went for 20pt/gm nearly every single game over the last 2.5 months of the season. He was more consistent then LJ and plays for a team I consider to be on the rise as compared to LJ playing on a team I consider to be on the elevator down. LJs touches over the last 2 seasons are also a large factor.
BigRed
Footballguy
I like SJ #1. People wetting their jammies about LT somehow forget rarely if ever do RBs even come close to repeating a huge year like that (although if anyone could do it, it's him) - although LT is still the safest #1 pick ie least likely to bust.
With LJ I also worry a lot about the OL and obviously the decreased carries. Should still be up there though.
I also think Alexander might be a bargain, injury notwithstanding. He's good for one more "upper tier" year I think.
With LJ I also worry a lot about the OL and obviously the decreased carries. Should still be up there though.
I also think Alexander might be a bargain, injury notwithstanding. He's good for one more "upper tier" year I think.
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Family Matters
Footballguy
First off, LT doesn't have to repeat what he did last year. Secondly, who's to say SJax will repeat what he did? He's more vulnerable to not repeating than LT is. LT has proven critics wrong his entire career so I wouldn't start doubting him now. There's just no reason to lower his expectations.I think all 3 of these guys will do well and finish 1,2, & 3. The order isn't that important. The difference will not likely be that huge. Besides, you're still going to need 9-10 other players in order to win a championship. You're going to need more than 1 of these guys to be crowned.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
Banger
Footballguy
I'm not sure why this logic doesn't apply to Sjax. Who's to say that many of the targets that Sjax got last year won't go to the newly added McMichael/Bennett? SJax's value largely lies in the fact that he had 90 receptions last year for a ridiculous amount of yardage and to assume he's going to repeat that is a big assumption IMO. A few years ago LT had 100 receptions and in the 3 seasons since he hasn't gotten more than 56. LT is more talented, has arguably the best run blocking line in the league and a coach who's widely considered a RB guru (not that LT needs it). Can SJax be #1 overall, possibly but I think the likelihood of LT being #1 is much greater. Give me the guy with the talent, line and track record.
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SSOG
Moderator
Fun Fact:I betcha most people didn't realize it, but last year, SJax had the 5th most single-season yards from scrimmage in NFL history.With that said, if you asked me which is more likely, SJax breaking down or LT breaking down, I'm going to have to go with LT breaking down.
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
That's because you are a Bronco fan.
burd
Footballguy
SJax is a "can't miss" player. Last season, the Rams were supposed to go towards a more ground control offense, but ended up throwing more than they wanted because their passing game was more effective. regardless of wheter they're throwing or running, SJax is a threat for both. Same goes for LT.
BigRed
Footballguy
True, Jackson may not repeat either (although I think so) but I don't think he's "more vulnerable."As for no reason to lower LT's expectations, pretty much true, but his "mileage" is getting up there. He's been averaging about 350 carries/year for 6 yrs now and is getting up there in age too. Not saying to shy away from him because of that - at least not this year - just throwing it out there.Actually main reason he won't be on my team is his asking price will be through the roof this year.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
as long as they dont trade for or otherwise acquire Ricky Williams.
Otis
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I would still take LT #1 over Sjax, but I can see the logic here and couldn't fault someone too much for doing otherwise.The scary thing about SJax's monster season is that the Rams didn't really figure out they should run the offense through him until about half way through the season, particularly in the redzone. Through the first half of the year the Rams were throwing the ball the majority of the time once they got inside the 10, and had a heckuva time getting it into the endzone that way. Then Linehan figured out that when they started feeding Sjax inside the 10, they started scoring more consistently. Jackson had only 4 TDs halfway through the year when he was fighting with Linehan for carries inside the 10, and still finished with the numbers he did.If Linehan keeps feeding Jackson inside the 10 (and no reason he wouldn't, it's been twice as effective as throwing inside the 10 was) then Jackson is approaching numbers like the ones LT put up this year.Meanwhile, LT lost the coach who had dreams about handing the ball off to him every night and probably believes that if you throw the ball more than 10 times in a game it counts as an automatic loss.Banger said:
Reservoir Dog
Footballguy
1. L.T.
2. F.Gore
3. L.J.
4. S.Jackson
2. F.Gore
3. L.J.
4. S.Jackson
Cowboys#1
Footballguy
if im drafting #4 in that league im doing cartwheels all the way home
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Btw, I'm happy to have SJax in two leagues and would be inclined to rate him as #2.
That said, I'm not convinced that the production he'll show at #2 overall will be quite the same as what has been seen and expected by #2 overalls in recent years.
LT
S Jax
LJ
Alexander
Gore
-QG
That said, I'm not convinced that the production he'll show at #2 overall will be quite the same as what has been seen and expected by #2 overalls in recent years.
LT
S Jax
LJ
Alexander
Gore
-QG
?
CowboyFan
Footballguy
you mean like S. Davis was last year?
Statorama
Footballguy
I am working the wires HARD in every keeper league I'm in trying to get LJ at 75 cents on the dollar. Lots of owners down on LJ after last year.BUY LOW!
Otis
Footballguy
except for the whole over-the-hill thing, yes, like that. seriously, i don't think leonard is a non-issue. they spent a high pick on him--i expect him to see some time.
CowboyFan
Footballguy
OK, so that was more of a joke towards the naysayers last year than an actual comparison to Leonard's impact on SJ.Since Leonard is a fullback, I'll break it down into the traditional functions of the position:
BLOCKING Leonard is considered an average blocker, but he is also known as a hard worker, and unlike speeeed, blocking is a skill that can be learned. So I'll consider this at LEAST a small plus for SJ.
RUNNING (short yardage) Lets face it, no one has ever used a FB as a game breaker, only for tough short yardage or maybe to catch a defense offguard. Leonard is a good runner (has been compared to Alstott), but SJ is no smallish, slashing RB who would lose significant GL love. And as with any stud rb, I would expect SJ to be in there when the game is on the line. Neutral to small negative for SJ.
RECEIVING Leonard is a very good receiver and this could cut into SJ's receiving #'s. Unlike rushing, passing plays (esp. dump off to rb's) often go where the defense has broken down/missed assignment. If SJ draws the attention of a LB and a safety and Leonard is left alone, guess where a smart QB like Bulger is going to throw it?? Potential big negative to SJ's receiving #'s.
Overall, I wouldn't be too concerned about Leonard's presence. It could very likely be a positive impact on SJ if he provides solid blocking and takes just enough carries to keep SJ fresh. Maybe those two positives will offset the potential dropoff in SJ's receiving.
Phlash
Footballguy
I'm picking SJ over LT.
Why?
Because while LT is a Hall of Famer and bound to put up great numbers this season, but SJ is much younger and I feel can produce even better numbers. They have similar skill sets, but I feel as though LT will have a few carries taken away from him by Turner as to keep him in full gear the whole season.
This is how I see things playing out.
LT - 320/1440/14, 50/400/2
SJ - 350/1600/16, 70/600/1
Just my opinion.
Why?
Because while LT is a Hall of Famer and bound to put up great numbers this season, but SJ is much younger and I feel can produce even better numbers. They have similar skill sets, but I feel as though LT will have a few carries taken away from him by Turner as to keep him in full gear the whole season.
This is how I see things playing out.
LT - 320/1440/14, 50/400/2
SJ - 350/1600/16, 70/600/1
Just my opinion.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
duaneok66
Footballguy
agreed . . . the real question I would like answered is WHY did they draft Leonard??
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
2001 - 102002 - 152003 - 172004 - 182005 - 202006 - 312007 - 16What number looks the most out of whack here? Granted, I don't think it would be wise to predict another 30 TD season, but I certainly aint gonna cut his TD total in half. His TD's have increased every year he has been in the league, but you have him regressing back to his second season. I'll put him at 21 TD's for 2007.
Phlash
Footballguy
I just have a gut feeling LT isn't going to be #1, even though I know all the historical evidence is against me, such as Norv Turner uses a feature RB, LT's numbers keep going up, bla bla bla, I just have this gut feeling he's going to have great numbers this year, not HoF numbers, and SJ is going to put up the huge numbers.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Heh, ok be honest people. How many other people read this and thought the answer was 31 and that was the direction the post was going to go?
Gold Plated Nails
Footballguy
Judging from a pretty good voter turnout, and although not unanimous at this point, 3 out of 4 Footballguys will draft Jackson either #1 or #2 overall as of mid May. I still think by August that will be closer to 4 out of 5 or higher. Certainly is interesting to see how Jackson has climbed up the draft charts, somewhat under the radar if you ask the average fantasy football player, not the hardcore footballguy type. If they ran the same poll at NFL.com I bet it would be a much lower number.
Banger
Footballguy
The reason for that is that Jackson was having a good season through the 1st 10 games but exploded over the last 6. 10 G - rush 811 - 5 tds rec 482 - 0 (extrapolates to 288 pts which is still good enough for 3rd but right there with Gore/Parker/Westy)6 G - rush 717 - 8 tds rec 324 - 3 (firmly entrenched at #3 a couple points below LJ and a full 57 pts (21% more) than #4 Gore) He got almost 70% of his td's over the last 6 games. At that point in the season it's after most trade deadlines, a couple weeks before the playoffs where probably between 40-50% of the league has checked out and aren't really crunching stats and comparing players as much as they are the 1st half of the season. Now when people get back and are looking at the full body of stats the players put up last year everyone sees what a monster year (propelled largely by his last 6 games) SJax had. At least that's my theory....
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