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Older defense - when to turn to youth? (1 Viewer)

Bezzerck

Footballguy
If you have a solid defense with ageing players such as Ray Lewis, Donnie Edwards, Derrick Brooks when do you start to replace such players with youthful players such as P. Willis and P. Puslouzsny?

If you are struggling with offensive help but are in an area within a draft where you are gambling on an unsure thing such as Lorenzo Booker, Kelly Irons, Ted Ginn or Greg Olsen (Does he have the skills to be a top 10 TE?) do you decide to stabilize your LB core or take a shot on an offensive position?

 
If you have a solid defense with ageing players such as Ray Lewis, Donnie Edwards, Derrick Brooks when do you start to replace such players with youthful players such as P. Willis and P. Puslouzsny?If you are struggling with offensive help but are in an area within a draft where you are gambling on an unsure thing such as Lorenzo Booker, Kelly Irons, Ted Ginn or Greg Olsen (Does he have the skills to be a top 10 TE?) do you decide to stabilize your LB core or take a shot on an offensive position?
If its a choice betweem the tier of offensive players you mentioned, and Willis/Poz, Id take the LB if I need help in both areas. depends on the scoring system though... is defensive scoring weighted similarly to ofensive scoring?
 
If you are struggling with offensive help but are in an area within a draft where you are gambling on an unsure thing such as Lorenzo Booker, Kelly Irons, Ted Ginn or Greg Olsen (Does he have the skills to be a top 10 TE?) do you decide to stabilize your LB core or take a shot on an offensive position?
:blackdot:
 
If you have a solid defense with ageing players such as Ray Lewis, Donnie Edwards, Derrick Brooks when do you start to replace such players with youthful players such as P. Willis and P. Puslouzsny?

If you are struggling with offensive help but are in an area within a draft where you are gambling on an unsure thing such as Lorenzo Booker, Kelly Irons, Ted Ginn or Greg Olsen (Does he have the skills to be a top 10 TE?) do you decide to stabilize your LB core or take a shot on an offensive position?
There's no pat answer anyone can give you that will be right in every instance. Generally in large-rostered IDP leagues, as otherwise healthy, starting defensive players at DE, LB and S hit 31 or so, you should start drafting guys who you feel can become their replacements in your lineup. In some cases you'll be surprised at your veterans' longevity and may end up becoming deep at this former position of need, or even being in a position to trade away talent. I almost always draft at least one S and one LB every year just because those are positions at which you start multiple players (usually 3-4 LB's and 2-3 S's) given their above-average production and use as de facto defensive flex players, and because you don't need to draft a 1st or 2nd or 3rd round "stud" at those positions to get good production the way that you typically need to at, for example, DE.

As for whether to draft offense or defense, I'm a firm believer that you can with diligence find IDP producers off of waivers or after the 3rd round of the rookie draft. Since 2004 in one league (my first IDP league), I've grabbed all of the following players off of waivers: Cato June; Rashean Mathis; Mike Patterson; Antonio Pierce; Robert Geathers. How often do you find a comparably productive RB or WR off of waivers?

 
It's been my experience that many true stud defensive players decline quickly rather than hang on for a number of declining seasons like their offensive counterparts. Finding a year-in, year-out consistent stud at any defensive position is a huge relative advantage. Whereas you might look into selling a Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon or Shaun Alexander a year or two before he starts his decline for value, I think doing the same thing with Zach Thomas, London Fletcher, Jason Taylor is a mistake -- unless you've got another similar talent to plug into their starting spot. I start to get nervous about a stud IDP only after what looks like a potentially serious injury. Lower body injuries, back injuries, things that may become chronic.

It's my philosophy to draft players with the highest ceiling and who will most likely provide the largest relative advantage in your starting lineup. You don't win with a bunch of pretty depth and upside on your roster. You win with studs. As I've said elsewhere, I get the positional scarcity argument. Still, while others are content to hope that a guy like MJD or Booker or Leonard becomes an every down back and a perennial top ten player, drafting guys like Landry, Willis, Posluszny, etc instead better improves your starting lineup in almost every instance.

I'm not saying you'll always be right -- I dismissed MJD in same category as Brian Calhoun last year -- so if you're convinced the second tier offensive player whose not ready to start for his NFL team (or your fantasy team) yet is talented enough to be a relative advantage in your lineup, then the positional scarcity argument makes the decision easy.

But if you're playing in a league where IDPs have comparable scoring value to offensive players and debating between an offensive player with some potential and a top IDP, I think you're making a mistake by taking the offensive player. In your example, I'd put Booker and Irons in that category as I don't see either as talented enough to every be an every down back with top ten scoring potential (obviously that's debatable). Ginn and Olsen may have that kind of upside. While, again IMO, Willis and Posluszny clearly have the potential to provide significant relative advantage in a starting lineup in the future, if not immediately.

Trading Zach Thomas when you've got a top fifteen performer like Posluszny ready to step in is much easier than trying to trade Troy Williamson after he proves himself a questionable one-trick pony or holding a roster spot for TJ Duckett for five years waiting for that one month stretch he's useful. Clearly, you'll be able to find examples where the opposite is true. But if your evaluation skills are good, you'll make the right offensive-defensive decision most of the time. That means drafting Shaun Alexander (behind Ricky Watters) or Deuce McAllister (behind Ricky Williams) or Frank Gore (behind Kevan Barlow) or Torry Holt (next to Isaac Bruce) or Chad Johnson (next to Carl Pickens) over the IDP with LB2/DB2 potential will still be the shark thing to do. Drafting Sinorice Moss or Leon Washington or Mike Bell or MJD or Santonio Holmes gets dicey and I think the hit rate is a little shakier.

It'll never be clearly cut and dried. But I'll always contend (with my IDP smelling breath) that ignoring a likely high scoring IDP for an offensive player with some potential but no obvious path to the upper ranks of the scoring lists as a default plan because of positional scarcity is asking for a higher draft pick the following year in most cases.

 
If you have a solid defense with ageing players such as Ray Lewis, Donnie Edwards, Derrick Brooks when do you start to replace such players with youthful players such as P. Willis and P. Puslouzsny?If you are struggling with offensive help but are in an area within a draft where you are gambling on an unsure thing such as Lorenzo Booker, Kelly Irons, Ted Ginn or Greg Olsen (Does he have the skills to be a top 10 TE?) do you decide to stabilize your LB core or take a shot on an offensive position?
Not sure where to start....Older Defensive PlayersMy only experience with IDP, which is limited, is with the Zealots format. (Dynasty format with 53 man rosters that has defensive scoring moderately undervalued as compared to some of the other scoring systems available.) As has been stated, when it starts to go for a defender it really starts to go. Z. Thomas, Ray Lewis, D. Brooks and Edwards are exceptions. Dig up any All Pro list from the 80's or 90's. The defense will be stocked with guys that had 3-6 year careers. Some names you will recognize and others you will ;) If you have a defensive player crossing out of his primary athletic years (27-29), then you need to consider shopping him. From personal experience I can tell you that a blue chip defensive player can net a 3rd round draft pick or, perhaps, a very low 2nd round pick. Again this is speaking strictly to my experience from the Zealot leagues. Coincidentally, that is the same area that new, blue chip prospects tend to get picked, which brings up your next point. You can quickly turn it around if you are looking to swap out position for position. Rebuilding & ValueShould you decide to start selling off your veteran defensive players you will either have to target replacements or begin to roll the dice on lottery ticket offensive players. It is a slippery slope. Those rookie defenders tend to come in handy. They produce quicker and do not necessarily bust at the rate of their 3rd-6th round offensive peers. It is a safe course of action. You can win with your defense. It will make your team competitive. You can build great depth on your team defense over 2 drafts and switch your focus to the offensive side of the ball. It goes without saying that your first few picks will be used on obvious offensive players if they are availble. Conversely, you have to start taking chances on late round offensive talent at some point. Some guys will tell you to always take offense over defense. Others will say take BPA at or after a certain point in the rookie draft. My feeling is that you build a plan around 2-3 rookie drafts because at some point you have to start taking the J. Hill, J. Higgins or D. Wrights of the draft vs. the Beasons, Andersons and Nelsons. The reason being is that it is very hard to trade away defensive talent...very hard...and trading defense for offense rarely, if ever, happens. If you are in fact starting over, then use a draft or two to focus on blue chip defensive players at or after that point in the draft that the defensive players represent the best value. Take the MLB over the freshly drafted 4th round WR. Take the DE over the 2nd round TE. Take the SS over the 5th round RB. Get picks with a quicker and higher ROI. For example, would you rather have D. Ryans or D. Hagan on your team right now? If memory serves, their ADP was fairly close last year. Go where the value is at and get healthy. Trade away veterans for extra picks in this part of the draft. Load up. You can replace all of your LB, DB or DE in 1-2 drafts if you make the right selections. Once that is complete you can take an entire rookie draft or drafts and focus on the low end, long shot offensive prospects. It works or at least I have found it works. Each of my teams have good to great defenses. This year I can focus entirely on offense and, most likely, next year too. That is not saying I will let a great LB fall past me, if the price is just too good to pass. I might still take that guy but I can elect to draft some random RB prospect, while knowing he has little shot at sticking, due to the equity built within my defense over the last few drafts. Also, if you manage to build and lock down a tight defense in a short period of time you will begin to see offensive players drop in your rookie drafts. Sooner or later your peers have to address their defense. It is a good feeling to have a young foundation at LB or DB about the time half of your league realizes their same positional players are past their prime. That is when you start to recover on offense. It is happening in one of the rookie drafts I am participating in right now. Several decent offensive players have slid just about a round past their ADP, as other owners are starting to grab defensive players. They are zigging and I plan to zag, if I ever get back on the clock. It is possible to build your draft plan or rebuild against the normal operating rhythm of your league. That statement is specific to IDP formats. In traditional offense only leagues everybody is essentially doing the same thing. An IDP draft and or team is far more intricate and has a greater depth and level of challenge. I expect some folks to have different advice but this is what worked for me.
 
My experience has been that the return you can get for an aging stud IDP isn't good enough to justify trading him. Other people tend to value the old stud as if he's going to fall that season, and there's no reason to trade a guy for the little value you get in return. Just ride them into the ground IMO - they're lasting longer than we expect.

 
My experience has been that the return you can get for an aging stud IDP isn't good enough to justify trading him. Other people tend to value the old stud as if he's going to fall that season, and there's no reason to trade a guy for the little value you get in return. Just ride them into the ground IMO - they're lasting longer than we expect.
:thumbup: Certainly, trying to trade them straight up usually yields nothing. Typically, the only way to trade them is as part of a larger deal centered around other (usually offensive) players.
 
My experience has been that the return you can get for an aging stud IDP isn't good enough to justify trading him. Other people tend to value the old stud as if he's going to fall that season, and there's no reason to trade a guy for the little value you get in return. Just ride them into the ground IMO - they're lasting longer than we expect.
I traded Bullock this year for a 1st round pick and drafted Dizon. Some believe Bullock will rebound but with Harris and Mike Peterson I felt I could take the chance. I wanted Lofton but Beaumont picked him pretty early.
 
If you have a solid defense with ageing players such as Ray Lewis, Donnie Edwards, Derrick Brooks when do you start to replace such players with youthful players such as P. Willis and P. Puslouzsny?If you are struggling with offensive help but are in an area within a draft where you are gambling on an unsure thing such as Lorenzo Booker, Kelly Irons, Ted Ginn or Greg Olsen (Does he have the skills to be a top 10 TE?) do you decide to stabilize your LB core or take a shot on an offensive position?
Not sure where to start....Older Defensive PlayersMy only experience with IDP, which is limited, is with the Zealots format. (Dynasty format with 53 man rosters that has defensive scoring moderately undervalued as compared to some of the other scoring systems available.) As has been stated, when it starts to go for a defender it really starts to go. Z. Thomas, Ray Lewis, D. Brooks and Edwards are exceptions. Dig up any All Pro list from the 80's or 90's. The defense will be stocked with guys that had 3-6 year careers. Some names you will recognize and others you will :goodposting: If you have a defensive player crossing out of his primary athletic years (27-29), then you need to consider shopping him. From personal experience I can tell you that a blue chip defensive player can net a 3rd round draft pick or, perhaps, a very low 2nd round pick. Again this is speaking strictly to my experience from the Zealot leagues. Coincidentally, that is the same area that new, blue chip prospects tend to get picked, which brings up your next point. You can quickly turn it around if you are looking to swap out position for position. Rebuilding & ValueShould you decide to start selling off your veteran defensive players you will either have to target replacements or begin to roll the dice on lottery ticket offensive players. It is a slippery slope. Those rookie defenders tend to come in handy. They produce quicker and do not necessarily bust at the rate of their 3rd-6th round offensive peers. It is a safe course of action. You can win with your defense. It will make your team competitive. You can build great depth on your team defense over 2 drafts and switch your focus to the offensive side of the ball. It goes without saying that your first few picks will be used on obvious offensive players if they are availble. Conversely, you have to start taking chances on late round offensive talent at some point. Some guys will tell you to always take offense over defense. Others will say take BPA at or after a certain point in the rookie draft. My feeling is that you build a plan around 2-3 rookie drafts because at some point you have to start taking the J. Hill, J. Higgins or D. Wrights of the draft vs. the Beasons, Andersons and Nelsons. The reason being is that it is very hard to trade away defensive talent...very hard...and trading defense for offense rarely, if ever, happens. If you are in fact starting over, then use a draft or two to focus on blue chip defensive players at or after that point in the draft that the defensive players represent the best value. Take the MLB over the freshly drafted 4th round WR. Take the DE over the 2nd round TE. Take the SS over the 5th round RB. Get picks with a quicker and higher ROI. For example, would you rather have D. Ryans or D. Hagan on your team right now? If memory serves, their ADP was fairly close last year. Go where the value is at and get healthy. Trade away veterans for extra picks in this part of the draft. Load up. You can replace all of your LB, DB or DE in 1-2 drafts if you make the right selections. Once that is complete you can take an entire rookie draft or drafts and focus on the low end, long shot offensive prospects. It works or at least I have found it works. Each of my teams have good to great defenses. This year I can focus entirely on offense and, most likely, next year too. That is not saying I will let a great LB fall past me, if the price is just too good to pass. I might still take that guy but I can elect to draft some random RB prospect, while knowing he has little shot at sticking, due to the equity built within my defense over the last few drafts. Also, if you manage to build and lock down a tight defense in a short period of time you will begin to see offensive players drop in your rookie drafts. Sooner or later your peers have to address their defense. It is a good feeling to have a young foundation at LB or DB about the time half of your league realizes their same positional players are past their prime. That is when you start to recover on offense. It is happening in one of the rookie drafts I am participating in right now. Several decent offensive players have slid just about a round past their ADP, as other owners are starting to grab defensive players. They are zigging and I plan to zag, if I ever get back on the clock. It is possible to build your draft plan or rebuild against the normal operating rhythm of your league. That statement is specific to IDP formats. In traditional offense only leagues everybody is essentially doing the same thing. An IDP draft and or team is far more intricate and has a greater depth and level of challenge. I expect some folks to have different advice but this is what worked for me.
:thumbup:
 

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