There are more 300+ carries RB than ever before...discuss (1 Viewer)

I seem to keep reading threads with a bunch of bellyachers in it complaing that their RB are stuck in RBBC. Really? I had to go back and check this out.

In the 1980's there was a total of 42 RB in that decade that crossed the 300+ carry mark at RB. Folks like Eric Dickerson did it multiple times so there really was just a couple of handfuls of RB that were "THE MAN"...most of the time RB split a lot of the workload.

In the 1990s there was a total of 59.

1990-0

1991-2

1992-5

1993-2

1994-7

1995-9

1996-11

1997-6

1998-11

1999-6

And you can see the 2nd half of the 90s there started to be a much larger percentage of 300+ carry RB. BTW: this did not always lead to mega FF numbers...many times the RB still had a hard time getting past the 200 point mark in traditional non PPR leagues.

Wanna take a guess where we are at for the 2000s? So far we have logged 70 and we still have 3 full seasons to go...at this rate we are going to break 100+. And they are very consistent with right about 10 almost every year since 2000.

What does this mean?

1. When you d your projections, if you have 18-20 RB with 300+ carries...danger danger...no good. And if you only have 3-4, you might want to reconsider.

2. RBBC is a myth as far as I am concerned. How many really talented RB are stuck in an RBBC...if they are that good it won't happen IMO. And this further backs what others have said that there is more talent at RB right now than ever before...with so many 300+ carry guys I tend to agree.

Can we identify the 10 RB that will get the most carries this season? Who will definitely break 300+ carries?

1. LT

2. Shaun Alexander...if healthy

3. Rudi Johnson

4. Willis McGahee

5. Joseph Addai

6. Larry Johnson

7. Frank Gore

8. Steven Jackson

9. FWP

10. Jamal Lewis

There are others but I am not sure they make it

Clinton Portis...I think they will use Betts a lot in relief

Travis Henry...not a sure thing...275 maybe?

Laurence Maroney

And some teams that you just have no idea what is going to happen

Oakland

NY Giants

Green Bay

Minnesota

Atlanta

New Orleans

any reason to think Cedric Benson won't get 300 carries?

I think T. Henry gets 300. They didn't go out and pay good money for nothing. Mike Bell is a poor man's Mike Anderson.

There are more teams now.

1990-28 teams

1995-30 teams

1999-31 teams

2002-32 teams

So it waters down the talent pool.

Edge will likely get 300

Just on the surface I must ask - have you checked if the total number of plays per game remained static?

About 20 guys would have 300+ carries in an ideal world. Unfortunately this is not an ideal world and about half of that 20 will get injured at some point and not make it to that 300 mark.

It's interesting to note that Lewis is a guy on your list. I agree, he will likely see 300 carries so long as he is healthy. He is not ranked in anyones top 20 for some reason. Lewis = value 2nd year in a row.

I guess the real question is: What does RBBC mean? I assume to each team or coach it might mean something different. I think we become afraid that the teams will almost do a 50/50 split when we first hear that. But it could mean:

one back comes in every three or four downs

could mean goal line carries

could mean a short yardage back

even a third down back could possibly be an rbbc.

I guess all it really means is that they will use both backs somehow in their approach to the running game.

jurb26 said:

About 20 guys would have 300+ carries in an ideal world. Unfortunately this is not an ideal world and about half of that 20 will get injured at some point and not make it to that 300 mark. It's interesting to note that Lewis is a guy on your list. I agree, he will likely see 300 carries so long as he is healthy. He is not ranked in anyones top 20 for some reason. Lewis = value 2nd year in a row.

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Lewis isn't value. He never is. He'll be a 4th rnd pick, on an awful team, with a horrible offense, who you'll never start, and if you do he'll disappoint you. That's not "value". Go draft Driver instead, start him all year, and you'll be MUCH happier.

Giggity said:

jurb26 said:

About 20 guys would have 300+ carries in an ideal world. Unfortunately this is not an ideal world and about half of that 20 will get injured at some point and not make it to that 300 mark. It's interesting to note that Lewis is a guy on your list. I agree, he will likely see 300 carries so long as he is healthy. He is not ranked in anyones top 20 for some reason. Lewis = value 2nd year in a row.

Click to expand...

Lewis isn't value. He never is. He'll be a 4th rnd pick, on an awful team, with a horrible offense, who you'll never start, and if you do he'll disappoint you. That's not "value". Go draft Driver instead, start him all year, and you'll be MUCH happier.

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What other way is there to provide value than providing a greater return than the draft position you take the player at? This is exactly what Lewis did last year. He will do it again this year.

Ministry of Pain said:

2. RBBC is a myth as far as I am concerned. How many really talented RB are stuck in an RBBC...if they are that good it won't happen IMO. And this further backs what others have said that there is more talent at RB right now than ever before...with so many 300+ carry guys I tend to agree.

Click to expand...

Sort by:Fantasy Points/Rushing YardsThe NFL is a copycat league.When the Final 4 teams are all RBBC, then you have to take notice.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rush Rush Rush Num Rec Rec Fum Fan # Pos Running Back NFL GP Att Yds TDs Rec Yds TDs Lost Pts--- --- --------------------- --- -- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- 10 RB McAllister,Deuce NO 15 244 1057 10 30 198 0 1 191.9 12 RB Addai,Joseph IND 16 226 1081 7 40 325 1 2 188.6 17 RB Bush,Reggie NO 16 154 558 6 89 748 2 2 177.6 19 RB Dillon,Corey NE 16 199 812 13 15 147 0 2 173.9 21 RB Jones,Thomas CHI 16 297 1209 6 36 154 0 1 171.7 29 RB Maroney,Laurence NE 14 175 745 6 22 194 1 1 135.9 33 RB Rhodes,Dominic IND 16 187 641 5 36 251 0 3 119.2 38 RB Benson,Cedric CHI 15 157 647 6 8 54 0 0 106.1Going forward the "feature back" seems to be harder and harder to find. With the benefits that coaches see with 2 RBs (changes of pace, keep both fresh, both are healthier (MJD/FTaylor) and both could extend each other's career.Yes, looking back (and I did this) 11 seasons, 30-39 RBs get 160+ touches (carries and catches). Strangely enough, it was ALWAYS 30-39 - no outliers. I cannot say if it is due to health (RB1 gets hurt) or by design.Oh and by the way - none of the SB teams had a 300+ carry back.

not a new subject

Bri said:

not a new subject

Click to expand...

Neither is Algebra, doesn't hurt to revisit and brush up.

Ministry of Pain said:

Bri said:

not a new subject

Click to expand...

Neither is Algebra, doesn't hurt to revisit and brush up.

Click to expand...

True true, it's just there's been some well thought out posts here on this. While I don't necessarily agree with them, Drinen, Chase, Yudkin, and CalBear all had some.