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Player Spotlight: Matt Leinart (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Matt Leinart Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
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I think Matt will take a step forward this year. He set the rookie record for passing yards in a single game, a testament to him and the players around him.

290/475 3400 25/15

 
I have Leinart as my #2 behind Eli (by my rakings) and I think he is a very strong #2 qb this year. He has the weapons to work with that's for sure. I however think Leinart will be more of an Aikman type qb from a fantasy standpoint and never really reach the huge #'s. I od think he'll be consistent 12-15 points a game with a big game here and there. I really want to see him in the new offense before getting to excited. I do think Leinart is going to be a very good, almost great qb in the future. I think he'll help his team on the field win more games than in the fantasy world.

284 completions/ 460 attempts 62%

3387 yards

22 td's

20 rushes for 60 yards

1 td

 
Adding Levi Brown with Deuce Latui to play the right/blind side over the past couple drafts will pay off big this year.

Fitz, Boldin, James, Bryant J and a couple young TEs... looks damn good. A defense that is less then average only helps in regards to fantasy passing opportunities. A QB with a seriously high ceiling. Expect the passing attempts to remain about the same. But with an improved result. As the new coaches will invigorate the teams play. (545 attempts last year and Whiz's offense had 523.) Wont miss any significant time. Neither will his targets.

535 attempts

330 completions (61.7%)

3850 yards

22 TDs

14 Ints

20 rush

50 yards

1 TD

Marked improvement from his rookie season. Making about QB #8(-#10).

 
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While I certainly expect Leinart to be more efficient this season - he completed 56% of his passes last year, but over 60% with Fitzgerald in the lineup - I don't think see you're going to see the same kind of passing volume.

Whisenhunt definitely brings in a more run-oriented offense. Arizona was 7th in pass attempts last season. Pittsburgh was 15th in pass attempts, in a year when they were behind more often than usual and lacked a great power back. Most years they ran the ball an absurd percentage of the time. While I don't expect the Cardinals to pull an 04-05 Steelers and run 600 times, I think the 06 Steelers represent a somewhat similar situation.

Matt Leinart projections:

299/483 (61.9%)

3467 yards

20 TDs

13 INTs

30 carries, 60 yards, 1 rush TD

I always project teams in alphabetical order and I just did Arizona so I really have no idea where this ranks Leinart, but I can't imagine I'll see him as particularly great draft value.

 
Another somewhat uncertain situation with 2nd year QB starting and new head coach that will cause a change in philosophy and play calling on both sides of the ball. I see the Cardinals becoming more commited to the run than they were under DaKnee Green. However the strength of this team is definitly its WRs Fitzgerald and Boldin. And Leinart is in one of the better situations for any and all QBs in the league.

Leinart being a rookie last year and not having a full season on him yet makes him somewhat difficult to project for and I think my projections are still pretty basic for him at this time. I really need to see another year of performance from him to get a better read on what to expect and I am not finished with team projections yet to my satisfaction either. But here is what I have for him right now.

543PA 310comp 57% 3936yards 21TD 15INT 15RA 60yards 2TD

555PA 327comp 59% 4051yards 24TD 14INT 15RA 60yards 2TD

555PA 339comp 61% 4162yards 25TD 14INT 15RA 60yards 2TD

I am expecting some steady improvement from Leinart moving forward. How long Edge last as the feature RB and who they will replace him with will matter a lot. I could see Leinart improving his TDs in 09 from what I have here and possibly reducing interceptions as well. However there is a chance I am being too optimistic about how well he will perform also.

 
With Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Johnson I expect a ton of passing TDs but I think his passing #s will be held back by a new running philosophy.

3500 pass yds, 21 tds, 11 ints, 100 rush yds, 1 td

 
shadyridr said:
With Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Johnson I expect a ton of passing TDs but I think his passing #s will be held back by a new running philosophy.3500 pass yds, 21 tds, 11 ints, 100 rush yds, 1 td
Click to expand...
I was about to post almost the same #'s 60% completion, 3550 - 21 tds - 18 int's (except more int's). I think most people are lowballing the int's a bit.
 
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
I think Matt will take a step forward this year. He set the rookie record for passing yards in a single game, a testament to him and the players around him.290/475 3400 25/15
Click to expand...
1 game is a testament? Wow.
Click to expand...
He played well in his other starts, but that game should have instilled some faith in that offenses ability to put up big numbers.
Click to expand...
In 11 starts, Leinart had 2 games where he passed for more than 250 yards. His 253 yd. effort against KC in his first start and the 405 yard game against Minny (the team with the great rushing defense and porous secondary). I am a Leinart owner and am very concerned that he will put up QB12-15 numbers.
 
550/320, 3700 yds, 27 TD's, 17 int's, 140 rush, 3 tds

do not have a ton of basis for my predictions other then I think there will be a new attitude in AZ and there are definately some weapons to score some points......

I guess the biggest reason I se him having a good year would be that Edge is also a great receiver and if they get a decent running game going, we know the WR can open up the field and I can see Edge catching quite a few dump off passes and doing some damage (taking a few in for scores)....acconted for that factor in lofty TD total....

 
Assuming he stays healthy:

292 completions, 513 attempts, 3491 yards, 18 TDs, 16 INTs / 37 rushes, 82 yards, 2 TDs

 
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I think the Cardinals offense takes a step forward. There's a lot of talent on that side of the ball with very little on the other. That will mean Leinart will THROW the ball.

3750 yards passing, 20 Td's and 15 INT's

150 yards rushing and 1 td

 
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
I think Matt will take a step forward this year. He set the rookie record for passing yards in a single game, a testament to him and the players around him.290/475 3400 25/15
Click to expand...
1 game is a testament? Wow.
Click to expand...
He played well in his other starts, but that game should have instilled some faith in that offenses ability to put up big numbers.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on one game against Minnie to support your "hope".
 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
I think Matt will take a step forward this year. He set the rookie record for passing yards in a single game, a testament to him and the players around him.290/475 3400 25/15
Click to expand...
1 game is a testament? Wow.
Click to expand...
He played well in his other starts, but that game should have instilled some faith in that offenses ability to put up big numbers.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on one game against Minnie to support your "hope".
Click to expand...
True, Minny's passing defense last year was terrible, but he's got weapons on that offense, and he's no slouch as a player and competitor. 403 yards for a rook is pretty darn good in one game, no matter how you slice it.
 
Cenobite said:
In 11 starts, Leinart had 2 games where he passed for more than 250 yards. His 253 yd. effort against KC in his first start and the 405 yard game against Minny (the team with the great rushing defense and porous secondary). I am a Leinart owner and am very concerned that he will put up QB12-15 numbers.
Click to expand...
Leinart put up QB12-15 numbers when he played last year, when adjusting for strength of schedule and games played. I've got his numbers as slightly below Warner's raw numbers, but Warner played an easier schedule (more than enough to compensate for that small difference). So considering Leinart was probably a little better than Warner last year, and the Arizona TM QB ranked 14th among all TM QBs, I'd have little reason to worry about Leinart this year based on what you saw last season. The change in coaching staff may cause some concern, however. Or it may not.
 
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
I think Matt will take a step forward this year. He set the rookie record for passing yards in a single game, a testament to him and the players around him.290/475 3400 25/15
Click to expand...
1 game is a testament? Wow.
Click to expand...
He played well in his other starts, but that game should have instilled some faith in that offenses ability to put up big numbers.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on one game against Minnie to support your "hope".
Click to expand...
True, Minny's passing defense last year was terrible, but he's got weapons on that offense, and he's no slouch as a player and competitor. 403 yards for a rook is pretty darn good in one game, no matter how you slice it.
Click to expand...
The Vikings pass D wasn't bad at all, last year. The Minnesota run D was just incredible, so the Vikings saw the most pass attempts against last season. The Vikings ranked 13th in yards per pass allowed against and had a 15/21 INT ratio, which is excellent. Minnesota only allowed two multi-TD passing games against all season. The Vikings didn't have the best pass D in the league, but it was much closer to good or average than terrible.
 
Chase Stuart said:
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
I think Matt will take a step forward this year. He set the rookie record for passing yards in a single game, a testament to him and the players around him.290/475 3400 25/15
Click to expand...
1 game is a testament? Wow.
Click to expand...
He played well in his other starts, but that game should have instilled some faith in that offenses ability to put up big numbers.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on one game against Minnie to support your "hope".
Click to expand...
True, Minny's passing defense last year was terrible, but he's got weapons on that offense, and he's no slouch as a player and competitor. 403 yards for a rook is pretty darn good in one game, no matter how you slice it.
Click to expand...
The Vikings pass D wasn't bad at all, last year. The Minnesota run D was just incredible, so the Vikings saw the most pass attempts against last season. The Vikings ranked 13th in yards per pass allowed against and had a 15/21 INT ratio, which is excellent. Minnesota only allowed two multi-TD passing games against all season. The Vikings didn't have the best pass D in the league, but it was much closer to good or average than terrible.
Click to expand...
Stop using facts to burst the bubble on these guys assumptions chase.They want black and white easy decisions here just like election time. Therefore the Vikes pass defense was terrible.On a related note however starting cornerback Winfield is sulking and the only non excused player not participating on the 1st day of mini camp. :hifive: Its the offseason though so the defensive ends are almost all healthy. :banned:
 
Chase Stuart said:
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
I think Matt will take a step forward this year. He set the rookie record for passing yards in a single game, a testament to him and the players around him.290/475 3400 25/15
Click to expand...
1 game is a testament? Wow.
Click to expand...
He played well in his other starts, but that game should have instilled some faith in that offenses ability to put up big numbers.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on one game against Minnie to support your "hope".
Click to expand...
True, Minny's passing defense last year was terrible, but he's got weapons on that offense, and he's no slouch as a player and competitor. 403 yards for a rook is pretty darn good in one game, no matter how you slice it.
Click to expand...
The Vikings pass D wasn't bad at all, last year. The Minnesota run D was just incredible, so the Vikings saw the most pass attempts against last season. The Vikings ranked 13th in yards per pass allowed against and had a 15/21 INT ratio, which is excellent. Minnesota only allowed two multi-TD passing games against all season. The Vikings didn't have the best pass D in the league, but it was much closer to good or average than terrible.
Click to expand...
I suppose this makes Leinart's performance even more impressive.
 
Looking at the numbers, you are right Chase.

They only gave up 15 TDs (4th in the NFL) and picked off opponents 21 times (5th in the NFL). They were middle of the pack in defensive YPA (6.71 for 13th in the NFL), but thats not bad all things considered.

 
Phlash said:
Chase Stuart said:
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Phlash said:
I think Matt will take a step forward this year. He set the rookie record for passing yards in a single game, a testament to him and the players around him.290/475 3400 25/15
Click to expand...
1 game is a testament? Wow.
Click to expand...
He played well in his other starts, but that game should have instilled some faith in that offenses ability to put up big numbers.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't rely on one game against Minnie to support your "hope".
Click to expand...
True, Minny's passing defense last year was terrible, but he's got weapons on that offense, and he's no slouch as a player and competitor. 403 yards for a rook is pretty darn good in one game, no matter how you slice it.
Click to expand...
The Vikings pass D wasn't bad at all, last year. The Minnesota run D was just incredible, so the Vikings saw the most pass attempts against last season. The Vikings ranked 13th in yards per pass allowed against and had a 15/21 INT ratio, which is excellent. Minnesota only allowed two multi-TD passing games against all season. The Vikings didn't have the best pass D in the league, but it was much closer to good or average than terrible.
Click to expand...
I suppose this makes Leinart's performance even more impressive.
Click to expand...
Leinart still had to throw 51 passes to get there. His 7.94 YPA ranks as the 44th best out of the 56 QBs to throw for 405 yards or more in the last 11 years.
 
The change in coaching and offensive philosophy always bothers me, and the fact that Leinart and his offensive teammates are relatively young doesn't help things.

I'm wondering whether a look at the 2004 Steelers stats with Big Ben as a rookie might be somewhat instructive. Yes, that Steelers team was a LOT better running team than the Cards, but I think Whisenhunt and Grimm use this year to try to instill a new attitude on that team and especially on offense. What that means to me is that they will run the ball at every opportunity.

Ben's stats were:

+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2004 pit | 14 | 196 295 66.4 2621 8.9 17 11 | 56 144 1 |That's ultra-conservative of course; I seem to recall those Steelers running the ball more than any team had in the last 15 years IIRC. They also had the luxury of relying upon a very dominant defense. I also think that the Cards receivers are better than the Ward-Burress duo was, although they certainly didn't suck. Take note of Ben's ypa, though. That was an offense that took its share of shots downfield.

That said, here are my projections for Leinart, incorporating a slow start into the bottom line numbers to account for the coaching change:

232/400/3120 21/15 passing

80/2 rushing

 
while its a fresh angle to look at the 2004 Steelers, it has absolutely no bearing on what Matt Leinart may or may not do this season. The Oline, WRs and QB are completely different playerrs and the weather, opponents and coaches are also different. What Wisenhunt did in Pitt were just tendancies based on hte personnel there -- and if they were ahead or behind in a given game. Leinart should improve on his numbers from last year as he learns to read defenses better and if the strength of schedule remains fairly consistent.

redman said:
The change in coaching and offensive philosophy always bothers me, and the fact that Leinart and his offensive teammates are relatively young doesn't help things. I'm wondering whether a look at the 2004 Steelers stats with Big Ben as a rookie might be somewhat instructive. Yes, that Steelers team was a LOT better running team than the Cards, but I think Whisenhunt and Grimm use this year to try to instill a new attitude on that team and especially on offense. What that means to me is that they will run the ball at every opportunity. Ben's stats were:

Code: 
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+				 |			  Passing				  |	 Rushing	 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT	YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2004 pit |  14 |   196   295  66.4  2621   8.9  17  11 |	56   144   1 |
That's ultra-conservative of course; I seem to recall those Steelers running the ball more than any team had in the last 15 years IIRC. They also had the luxury of relying upon a very dominant defense. I also think that the Cards receivers are better than the Ward-Burress duo was, although they certainly didn't suck. Take note of Ben's ypa, though. That was an offense that took its share of shots downfield. That said, here are my projections for Leinart, incorporating a slow start into the bottom line numbers to account for the coaching change:232/400/3120 21/15 passing80/2 rushing
Click to expand...
 
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