Player Spotlight: Alex Smith (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood · May 21, 2007

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Player Page Link: Alex Smith Player Page

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Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
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FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

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Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
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Phlash · May 21, 2007

Alex Smith should make an improvement, however I think that the loss of Norv Turner will stunt his growth some. He should still improve on last years numbers.

281/475 3275 22/14

PahtyTom · May 21, 2007

Phlash said:
Alex Smith should make an improvement, however I think that the loss of Norv Turner will stunt his growth some. He should still improve on last years numbers.281/475 3275 22/14

I agree that losing Turner will not help any, but the addition of DJax, another year under Smith's belt and Vernon Davis' as well, and a now proven strong running game and OLine should do a lot to offset that. I think the big road wins at Seattle and Denver down the stretch last year could do wonders for this kid's confidence coming into this year as well. That said, I think your projections are pretty darn good, and project him around the same.

shadyridr · May 22, 2007

I like Smith this year as a QB2. He should show some improvement but this is still Frank Gore's offense. That will limit Smith's passing attempts and his passing TDs. Plus if DJax gets hurt again that limits Smith's passing options. I can see the following TD #'s: Jackson 7, Davis 6, Gore 2, Battle 2, Lelie 1. Thats 18 TDs. Add about 200 yds passing a game and you get:

3200 pass yds, 18 tds, 12 ints, 200 rush yds, 2 tds

CalBear · May 22, 2007

Smith went from being as bad as Ryan Leaf in 2005, to being not as good as Joey Harrington in 2006. He led a Niner passing offense which finished #29 in yardage and #26 in TDs, despite Smith having a ton of pressure taken off him by the remarkably successful running of Frank Gore.

The Niners lost two of their top three receivers, and replaced them with Ashley Lelie (430 yards, 1 TD in 2006) and Darrell Jackson. If Jackson plays 16 games, that probably constitutes an upgrade, but Jackson has missed 9 games in the past two years and hasn't been a full speed for a number of others. Due to injuries, he hasn't broken 1000 yards since 2004, even though he played in a much better passing offense than SF's.

There are other factors working against Smith. The two likely leading receivers on the team, Jackson and Vernon Davis, both have had significant problems with dropped passes. I am not someone who thinks Norv Turner is a great offensive mind, but his departure can't be good news for a struggling young QB.

And finally, there is Smith himself. He looked mediocre for most of the season, and bad for the rest. His second-half split (171 yards per game, 56.8% completions, 7 TD 9 INT, all worse than his averages for the year) does not inspire confidence that he's getting more comfortable and improving his game.

I think he will get to throw more passes than he did last year, but other than that his numbers will be flat or worse than last year.

3040 yards, 16 TD, 19 INT, 2 rushing TD. Good for approximately QB#20.

BigRed · May 22, 2007

CalBear said:
The Niners lost two of their top three receivers, and replaced them with Ashley Lelie (430 yards, 1 TD in 2006) and Darrell Jackson.

The biggest problem IMO. And Davis (another moron IMO), despite all his combine glory, hasn't wowed anyone just yet either.I disagree w/your gloom and doom stats, but I hope I can do better for QB2 as I'm not expecting much.

Chase Stuart · May 22, 2007

28 teams had their QBs score more fantasy points than the 49ers. Alex Smith ranked 18th last year, but that's only because he played every game for them. Durability isn't particularly valuable for a mediocre fantasy QB; upside is.

Now the 49ers Team QB ranked 32nd in 2005, so they did improve last year. But there's a long, long way to improve before Smith can be considered anywhere near a top 12 QB.

BigRed · May 22, 2007

Chase Stuart said:
Durability isn't particularly valuable for a mediocre fantasy QB; upside is.

Not to sidetrack too much, but if you replace "mediocre fantasy QB" with "QB2" then I would say during the draft, yeah - but if looking for a QB2 free agent (ie that'll get you by on bye week), I disagree. The pickings can get really slim and you're looking for a good-enough who will at least play and get you SOME points.

Jason Wood · May 24, 2007

I know many people view San Francisco as a team on the rise. Yet, I wonder how Alex Smith deals with his 3rd OC in as many seasons; particularly with the changeover in his receiving corps to boot. On the other hand, they made positive changes to the O-line [on paper], and if DJax is healthy, he has major league weapons at RB, WR and TE.

Chase's work on Smith suggests he's starting from a lower baseline than many suspect. I see Smith as a good bet to improve on a per attempt basis, but does that make him a viable fantasy commodity?

hacman · May 24, 2007

CalBear said:
Smith went from being as bad as Ryan Leaf in 2005, to being not as good as Joey Harrington in 2006. He led a Niner passing offense which finished #29 in yardage and #26 in TDs, despite Smith having a ton of pressure taken off him by the remarkably successful running of Frank Gore.

The Niners lost two of their top three receivers, and replaced them with Ashley Lelie (430 yards, 1 TD in 2006) and Darrell Jackson. If Jackson plays 16 games, that probably constitutes an upgrade, but Jackson has missed 9 games in the past two years and hasn't been a full speed for a number of others. Due to injuries, he hasn't broken 1000 yards since 2004, even though he played in a much better passing offense than SF's.

There are other factors working against Smith. The two likely leading receivers on the team, Jackson and Vernon Davis, both have had significant problems with dropped passes. I am not someone who thinks Norv Turner is a great offensive mind, but his departure can't be good news for a struggling young QB.

And finally, there is Smith himself. He looked mediocre for most of the season, and bad for the rest. His second-half split (171 yards per game, 56.8% completions, 7 TD 9 INT, all worse than his averages for the year) does not inspire confidence that he's getting more comfortable and improving his game.

I think he will get to throw more passes than he did last year, but other than that his numbers will be flat or worse than last year.

3040 yards, 16 TD, 19 INT, 2 rushing TD. Good for approximately QB#20.

This is a pretty fair assessment for the most part. I would want a more known quantity in my QB2. Smith’s curve learning the position is unpredictable, because he hasn’t taken that many snaps in his football career when you combine both college & NFL experience. He’ll go earlier in fantasy drafts than I would want to take him.I would flip CalBear's TD/INT ratio as he has shown improvement in his decision making ability.

But, to stir the pot, I'll also bring up Urban Meyer's prediction that Smith would be non-functional until he was fully comfortable in his offense. His stats in his second year of starting at Utah were 67.5% comp. pct. with a 32/4 TD/INT ratio. Those are crazy numbers in a gimmicky offense, but it leaves the door open for a possibility of Drew Brees-like parallels.

rzrback77 · Jun 3, 2007

Too much change here for my liking, 3rd OC in third season for Alex Smith and the Niners. The running game was ultra-effective and that looks to be the strength heading into 07.

The third OC in three years is what I expect to stunt Smith's growth. Several new receivers should improve the potential and the return of TE Vernon Davis as well. Kind of a catch-22 situation.

I still believe in Smith and he could be an excellent dynasty grab, but I'll stick with low expectations in 07. An overall modest increase and he will probably finish top twenty, but have few big games fantasy wise.

Alex Smith 280 comps in 460 pass attempts 2900 yds 18 TDs & 12 ints, add 180 yds rushing and 2 TDs.

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Player Spotlight: Alex Smith (1 Viewer)

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