Player Spotlight: Laurence Maroney (1 Viewer)

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Laurence Maroney Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

If Maroney is healthy, the sky is the limit for him. Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk aren't going to leech yards from him.

If Dillon can put up 1600/12 in this offense, I think Maroney is capable of similar numbers.

320/1400/11

30/250/1

Phlash said:

If Maroney is healthy, the sky is the limit for him. Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk aren't going to leech yards from him.If Dillon can put up 1600/12 in this offense, I think Maroney is capable of similar numbers.320/1400/1130/250/1

Click to expand...

I'd go with about those #'s. The only thing that scares me about him is injuries. If he can go injury free I'd look for him to atleast be at these #'s.

I think Maroney is a special back in an excellent situation. I could see the Pat's new weapons (Moss & Stallworth) limiting his TD potential, but other than that, there are very few negatives about his game. I think his carries and rushing yards could be higher, but the shoulder has me a little worried, so I'm going to go a little conservative (~90%).

285 carries

1200 rush yds

8 rush TDs

46 receptions

400 rec yds

2 rec TDs

I love his skillset and they way he runs.

I dont like the durability issues that can be caused by that very running style.

Not sure if he will play as much as I would like in the Patriots passing situation offense.

However, his rushing TDs should be fantasy gold and temper the Patriots fantasy passing output a little.

290 carries

1210 yards

13 TDs

33 rec

200 yards

1.5 TD

Making him RB #8-9. And his ceiling is much higher.

I love Maroney but I do think he still needs to show patience at times. Also, the NE offensive line is solid, but not spectacular by any means. That said, the passing game should open up plenty of opportunities for Maroney on its own.

250 carries

1100 yards

11 TDs

24 catches

175 yards

1 TD

I am planning to still tweak these projections for greater detail as the offseason goes on. There is some uncertainty surrounding Maroneys future that stems from him always being a part of a RBBC. In college and also in his 1st year as a pro. I do not see Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk as great threats to Maroney's opportunity at this time but it is possible that the Patriots may add another RB to time share with him. There are concerns about his health (shoulder) and overall durability as well. The Patriots offensive skill players have changed greatly this offseason which adds to the uncertainty and speculation surrounding this offense. Moreso than the majority of other offenses in the NFL who have more stability in thier personel to draw patterns from.

That being said Lawrence Maroney projections 2007-2009:

2007 240-315 carries 1080-1417 yards 4.5 ypc 10-14TD 25-40 catches 220-352 yards 1TD

2008 260-320 carries 1196-1472 yards 4.6 ypc 10-14TD 25-45 catches 220-396 yards 1-2TD

2009 260-320 carries 1070-1440 yards 4.5 ypc 10-13TD 30-60 catches 264-528 yards 1-3TD

Some notes about these numbers:

I use/develop projection ranges from team projections that give me a high and low expectation. Some players projection ranges will be tighter than others when thier performance and situations are more stable and predictable. Players with high variance in thier projections are more risk/reward than players with a tighter projection range. While building/adjusting my teams I may opt for a player that is more reliable but with less upside or vice versa depending on the league, the flow of the draft/trade value or other players on my team. I prefer a projection range to a static projection because it helps me manage risk while also giving me a more reasonable expectation of a players relative value.

If you prefer a static number for ranking purposes then I would suggest using the low, middle or high portion of this projection range depending on your view of Maroney and view towards projections in general, be they pessimistic or optimistic for most if not all players.

For 2007 I am taking a more conservative view in regards to what I expect within Maroney's projection range. I consider it more likely that Maroney performs on the low end of my 2007 projection than the high end. Yet I am still factoring in his upside. I could still see the floor of this projection being reduced if shoulder injury lingers or if another RB that is more competitive than Morris is added to the roster.

In 2008 I expect his workload to increase based off of some recent historical study of RB performance as well as some common sense factors such as Maroney improved conditioning and experience in feature role from 2007. I also see Kevin Faulk declining/being phased out in 2008 so a slight increase in Maroneys role in the passing game.

In 2009 I have a modest drop for Maroney in YPC due to seeing him as more established feature back as well as questions about surrounding cast supporting him or not 2 years out. I see Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris being out of the picture by 2009 and thus the additional increase in catches for Maroney as Faulk moves on. I never give equal weight to the 3rd year of a projection I make to the 1st 2 as I know so many things can and probobly will change by this time. The projection is more a place holder of long term value as a check to see if 1st 2 years can be reasonably maintained/improve/decline.

i have no doubt maroney can put up good numbers in this offense. if antwain smith can, maroney certainly can. my only question is, durability, and usage. how will he handle being the featured back? he hasn't even started 16 games the last 4 years, let alone 16 in one year. his shoulders also have to be a concern. i just don't see 300 carries. at least not this year.

267 1125 4.2 10 and 29 250 8.6 1

I see a lot of Maroney owners are listing their projections. I'm going to have to agree with the post above...

Maroney was signing autographs with his off hand and wouldn't even throw a softball recently. Also, the Pats added a great red zone guy in Randy Moss that they have lacked in past seasons. If nothing else, the recent interest in Chris Brown has to at least raise the issue of Maroney's health. I just don't envision Maroney staying productive and healthy for 16 games while amassing 350 carries.

260 carries, 1,100 yards, 8 TD's

35 receptions, 325 yards, 1 TD

Belichick has actually been more of a passing coach than running coach on offense. He's also never had a WR like Randy Moss before. Plus he's got Stallworth too. So I'm not as high on Maroney as others might be. I think Moss takes some TDs away from the running game. Plus, Maroney has questions about his health.

Lawrence Maroney:

270 carries, 1200 yards, 7 TDs.

34 catches, 275 yards, 2 TDs.

Disclosure: I own Lawrence Maroney in my keeper league, and probably will keep him, as its very iffy that I'll get a player as good as him if I pass with most starting RBs already locked up.

This should be a fun one...TD projections look kind of low thus far.

LHUCKS said:

This should be a fun one...TD projections look kind of low thus far.

Click to expand...

The lowest projection so far is 9 total TD's.

trader jake said:

LHUCKS said:

This should be a fun one...TD projections look kind of low thus far.

Click to expand...

The lowest projection so far is 9 total TD's.

Click to expand...

Maroney had 7 last year, Dillon had 13. The main RB going from 20 TDS to 9 TDS does seem awfully low IMO.

Keith Lewis said:

trader jake said:

LHUCKS said:

This should be a fun one...TD projections look kind of low thus far.

Click to expand...

The lowest projection so far is 9 total TD's.

Click to expand...

Maroney had 7 last year, Dillon had 13. The main RB going from 20 TDS to 9 TDS does seem awfully low IMO.

Click to expand...

Belichick's Patriots - Annual team leader in TDs among RBs 2000 - Kevin Faulk - 5 - 4 rushing, 1 receiving2001 - Antowain Smith - 13 - 12 rushing, 1 receiving*2002 - Antowain Smith - 8 - 6 rushing, 2 receiving2003 - Mike Cloud - 5 - 5 rushing, 0 receiving*2004 - Corey Dillon - 13 - 12 rushing, 1 receiving*2005 - Corey Dillon - 13 - 12 rushing, 1 receiving2006 - Corey Dillon - 13 - 13 rushing, 0 receivingIts not like Patriot RBs are scoring loads of TDs all the time. In fact, they won a super bowl in 2003 with Mike Cloud leading them with 5 rushing TDs. On average, the top Patriot rusher scores 10 TDs in a given year.

Keith Lewis said:

trader jake said:

LHUCKS said:

This should be a fun one...TD projections look kind of low thus far.

Click to expand...

The lowest projection so far is 9 total TD's.

Click to expand...

Maroney had 7 last year, Dillon had 13. The main RB going from 20 TDS to 9 TDS does seem awfully low IMO.

Click to expand...

I don't think stacking Maroney and Dillon's stats on top of each other is a very good way to look at things, unless you were also planning on projecting Maroney for 374 carries.

Im thinking when all is said and done Maroney is this year's bust RB. He will be taken in the 1st round by many but I dont think you can take his shoulder injury lightly. Last year after he was hurt I saw a tentative RB that tiptoed to the line. With all reports stating that he is still hurting what makes you think he will hit the hole hard this year. I think he will have a very average year and will be playing scared/hurt. I think Kevin Faulk gets a lot of playing time and is an immediate sleeper and I wouldnt be surprised if the Patriots sign another RB. Ill say Maroney is this years version of Kevan Barlow from a few years ago when he was a consensus 1st rd pick.

240 att, 900 yds, 8 tds, 20 rec, 150 yds, 1 td

If he is catching balls out of the backfield then I can see him at 1700 - 2000 combined yards and 12 - 15 TDs.

I am optimistic, but looking at him I have my concerns about his health and the potential for NE to fall completely in love with the passing game. I am planning on 10 TDs with 1500 combined yards, but I am hoping for my first prediction.

When i see Maroney i see a stud Rb.

I would be shocked if he scored under 10 TD's this season and was completely healthy. I think he'll have something more like 15.

Man, all I hear is how good New England is going to be this year. Way to much hype and in my opinion all there's room for is let down. Moss is going to be superman, the defense is so much improved that it'll stop the best of offenses etc....

The team is good but IMO they're weak at the RB position.

1050 yards, 9 td's

15 receptions for 140 yards

Spartans Rule said:

Keith Lewis said:

trader jake said:

LHUCKS said:

This should be a fun one...TD projections look kind of low thus far.

Click to expand...

The lowest projection so far is 9 total TD's.

Click to expand...

Maroney had 7 last year, Dillon had 13. The main RB going from 20 TDS to 9 TDS does seem awfully low IMO.

Click to expand...

I don't think stacking Maroney and Dillon's stats on top of each other is a very good way to look at things, unless you were also planning on projecting Maroney for 374 carries.

Click to expand...

If I have him for 320 carries and TDs were directly related to carries:320/374 = .85.85 x 20 TDs = 17 TDsIf Chris Brown comes on that will change things. If Maroney gets injured that will also change things.

LHUCKS said:

If I have him for 320 carries and TDs were directly related to carries:320/374 = .85.85 x 20 TDs = 17 TDsIf Chris Brown comes on that will change things. If Maroney gets injured that will also change things.

Click to expand...

You can spin the math anyway you want to get the numbers you feel are correct, but......are you projecting Moroney to score 17 TD's next season?

trader jake said:

LHUCKS said:

If I have him for 320 carries and TDs were directly related to carries:320/374 = .85.85 x 20 TDs = 17 TDsIf Chris Brown comes on that will change things. If Maroney gets injured that will also change things.

Click to expand...

You can spin the math anyway you want to get the numbers you feel are correct, but......are you projecting Moroney to score 17 TD's next season?

Click to expand...

What's wrong with "projecting" TD's? Seems that everyone is so good at "projecting" injuries around here. I see nothing wrong with it.

trader jake said:

You can spin the math anyway you want to get the numbers you feel are correct, but...

Click to expand...

I'm not spinning the math, I'm simply providing some food for thought.

trader jake said:

...are you projecting Moroney to score 17 TD's next season?

Click to expand...

I project a range and not a single static number which is why I don't participate in these threads very often...they don't really gel with my methodology for projecting the relative values of players.Maroney's range is quite large because he could blow up or he could play 8 games. Like many other RBs, Maroney has never proven he can carry the ball 300 times in a season so that makes his low number lower than what most have projected him for in this thread. On the other hand, his high number for me is 2100 total yards and 22 TDs...which I think is more than realistic, but it is the best case scenario.Let's not forget that an over-the-hill, non deep threat Corey Dillon averaged 13 TDs a year in a less dynamic Patriot offense. That was with him missing 5 games as well.As things stand now, I think he's a shoe-in for 15 TDs if he remains healthy.

LHUCKS said:

trader jake said:

You can spin the math anyway you want to get the numbers you feel are correct, but...

Click to expand...

I'm not spinning the math, I'm simply providing some food for thought.

trader jake said:

...are you projecting Moroney to score 17 TD's next season?

Click to expand...

I project a range and not a single static number which is why I don't participate in these threads very often...they don't really gel with my methodology for projecting the relative values of players.Maroney's range is quite large because he could blow up or he could play 8 games. Like many other RBs, Maroney has never proven he can carry the ball 300 times in a season so that makes his low number lower than what most have projected him for in this thread. On the other hand, his high number for me is 2100 total yards and 22 TDs...which I think is more than realistic, but it is the best case scenario.Let's not forget that an over-the-hill, non deep threat Corey Dillon averaged 13 TDs a year in a less dynamic Patriot offense. That was with him missing 5 games as well.As things stand now, I think he's a shoe-in for 15 TDs if he remains healthy.

Click to expand...

Why not post your projection range for Maroney and the reasoning behind it? I did.That is if it's done?I know there are still some teams I have not even gotten to yet.

Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:

Man, all I hear is how good New England is going to be this year. Way to much hype and in my opinion all there's room for is let down. Moss is going to be superman, the defense is so much improved that it'll stop the best of offenses etc....The team is good but IMO they're weak at the RB position. 1050 yards, 9 td's15 receptions for 140 yards

Click to expand...

They were weak in 2001 and 2003 but still won two super bowls.Its called having a ridiculous defense.And Tom Brady.

Biabreakable said:

LHUCKS said:

trader jake said:

You can spin the math anyway you want to get the numbers you feel are correct, but...

Click to expand...

I'm not spinning the math, I'm simply providing some food for thought.

trader jake said:

...are you projecting Moroney to score 17 TD's next season?

Click to expand...

I project a range and not a single static number which is why I don't participate in these threads very often...they don't really gel with my methodology for projecting the relative values of players.Maroney's range is quite large because he could blow up or he could play 8 games. Like many other RBs, Maroney has never proven he can carry the ball 300 times in a season so that makes his low number lower than what most have projected him for in this thread. On the other hand, his high number for me is 2100 total yards and 22 TDs...which I think is more than realistic, but it is the best case scenario.Let's not forget that an over-the-hill, non deep threat Corey Dillon averaged 13 TDs a year in a less dynamic Patriot offense. That was with him missing 5 games as well.As things stand now, I think he's a shoe-in for 15 TDs if he remains healthy.

Click to expand...

Why not post your projection range for Maroney and the reasoning behind it? I did.That is if it's done?I know there are still some teams I have not even gotten to yet.

Click to expand...

Exactly, we can all do the basic math and look at the midpoint of your range.edit to add my projections:280 carries 1200 yards11 TDs32 rec 200 yards1 TD

I know we're not supposed to predict injuries, but I checked my Magic 8-ball and asked it if Maroney will miss games: "most likely, yes."

I think he'll miss 2-3 games this year.

Moss and Stalworth stretch the field and give him good running room. Thus, higher Y.P.C.

270 attempts, 1215 yards, 10 rush td's. 30 receptions, 250 yards, and 2 rec. td's.

I said:

I know we're not supposed to predict injuries, but I checked my Magic 8-ball and asked it if Maroney will miss games: "most likely, yes."I think he'll miss 2-3 games this year. Moss and Stalworth stretch the field and give him good running room. Thus, higher Y.P.C.270 attempts, 1215 yards, 10 rush td's. 30 receptions, 250 yards, and 2 rec. td's.

Click to expand...

that settles it, you can't go against the magic 8-ball.

I think he will total out somewhere around 1400 total yards and 12 TD.

KING said:

I said:

I know we're not supposed to predict injuries, but I checked my Magic 8-ball and asked it if Maroney will miss games: "most likely, yes."I think he'll miss 2-3 games this year. Moss and Stalworth stretch the field and give him good running room. Thus, higher Y.P.C.270 attempts, 1215 yards, 10 rush td's. 30 receptions, 250 yards, and 2 rec. td's.

Click to expand...

that settles it, you can't go against the magic 8-ball.

Click to expand...

The 8 ball is a hell of a drug.I agree with Rick James reasoning behind the WRs helping Maroneys YPC.

Posted this before Dillon was let go...

Moving these number up to 265-1100-11 and 38-335-2

Looks like Maroney is still favoring his shoulder....hopefully he's ready for training camp....if not, his status will hurt some dynasty owners.

http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/...ticleid=1005234

FOXBORO - Here’s the good news: Laurence Maroney took the field yesterday without a red noncontact jersey.

Here’s the bad news: He wasn’t wearing a helmet.

Maroney appeared at practice for the first time since undergoing offseason shoulder surgery but didn’t do a heck of a lot. While he raced to the front of the line to partake in the morning’s first agility drill, he participated very little thereafter.

The most burst he showed came at the end of practice when he sprinted to the locker room and eluded the media. Regardless, some Maroney is better than no Maroney, and his appearance, even if largely for show, suggests he’s on the right track as he rehabs his shoulder.

“He’s recovering from surgery and doing the things he needs to do to get back in shape and play with us,” said fellow running back Sammy Morris. “He’s a good guy. He works hard.”

Maroney appeared to be favoring his right arm, which hung by his side for most of practice. When he played catch with safety Rodney Harrison, he made wobbly return throws with an awkward left-handed motion that suggested he’s right-handed.

Coach Bill Belichick wasn’t available for comment, but it appears the team is taking things slowly with Maroney. The start of the regular season remains three months away.

This shoulder issue is starting to worry me.........

This guy might be the ultimate boom or bust candidate. I just don't know where to draft him. I probably won't unless he slips pretty far.

Biabreakable said:

I am planning to still tweak these projections for greater detail as the offseason goes on. There is some uncertainty surrounding Maroneys future that stems from him always being a part of a RBBC. In college and also in his 1st year as a pro. I do not see Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk as great threats to Maroney's opportunity at this time but it is possible that the Patriots may add another RB to time share with him. There are concerns about his health (shoulder) and overall durability as well. The Patriots offensive skill players have changed greatly this offseason which adds to the uncertainty and speculation surrounding this offense. Moreso than the majority of other offenses in the NFL who have more stability in thier personel to draw patterns from.That being said Lawrence Maroney projections 2007-2009:2007 240-315 carries 1080-1417 yards 4.5 ypc 10-14TD 25-40 catches 220-352 yards 1TD2008 260-320 carries 1196-1472 yards 4.6 ypc 10-14TD 25-45 catches 220-396 yards 1-2TD2009 260-320 carries 1070-1440 yards 4.5 ypc 10-13TD 30-60 catches 264-528 yards 1-3TDSome notes about these numbers:I use/develop projection ranges from team projections that give me a high and low expectation. Some players projection ranges will be tighter than others when thier performance and situations are more stable and predictable. Players with high variance in thier projections are more risk/reward than players with a tighter projection range. While building/adjusting my teams I may opt for a player that is more reliable but with less upside or vice versa depending on the league, the flow of the draft/trade value or other players on my team. I prefer a projection range to a static projection because it helps me manage risk while also giving me a more reasonable expectation of a players relative value.If you prefer a static number for ranking purposes then I would suggest using the low, middle or high portion of this projection range depending on your view of Maroney and view towards projections in general, be they pessimistic or optimistic for most if not all players.For 2007 I am taking a more conservative view in regards to what I expect within Maroney's projection range. I consider it more likely that Maroney performs on the low end of my 2007 projection than the high end. Yet I am still factoring in his upside. I could still see the floor of this projection being reduced if shoulder injury lingers or if another RB that is more competitive than Morris is added to the roster.In 2008 I expect his workload to increase based off of some recent historical study of RB performance as well as some common sense factors such as Maroney improved conditioning and experience in feature role from 2007. I also see Kevin Faulk declining/being phased out in 2008 so a slight increase in Maroneys role in the passing game.In 2009 I have a modest drop for Maroney in YPC due to seeing him as more established feature back as well as questions about surrounding cast supporting him or not 2 years out. I see Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris being out of the picture by 2009 and thus the additional increase in catches for Maroney as Faulk moves on. I never give equal weight to the 3rd year of a projection I make to the 1st 2 as I know so many things can and probobly will change by this time. The projection is more a place holder of long term value as a check to see if 1st 2 years can be reasonably maintained/improve/decline.

Click to expand...

This was really excellent posting. Maroney is a guy I am very intrigued by and am having a hard time placing a value on. This was extremely helpful.

Michael J Fox said:

Looks like Maroney is still favoring his shoulder....hopefully he's ready for training camp....if not, his status will hurt some dynasty owners.

http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/...ticleid=1005234

FOXBORO - Here’s the good news: Laurence Maroney took the field yesterday without a red noncontact jersey.

Here’s the bad news: He wasn’t wearing a helmet.

Maroney appeared at practice for the first time since undergoing offseason shoulder surgery but didn’t do a heck of a lot. While he raced to the front of the line to partake in the morning’s first agility drill, he participated very little thereafter.

The most burst he showed came at the end of practice when he sprinted to the locker room and eluded the media. Regardless, some Maroney is better than no Maroney, and his appearance, even if largely for show, suggests he’s on the right track as he rehabs his shoulder.

“He’s recovering from surgery and doing the things he needs to do to get back in shape and play with us,” said fellow running back Sammy Morris. “He’s a good guy. He works hard.”

Maroney appeared to be favoring his right arm, which hung by his side for most of practice. When he played catch with safety Rodney Harrison, he made wobbly return throws with an awkward left-handed motion that suggested he’s right-handed.

Coach Bill Belichick wasn’t available for comment, but it appears the team is taking things slowly with Maroney. The start of the regular season remains three months away.

Click to expand...

and no one on here is projecting anything less than 240 carries???Give him 175/810/6

and 30/270/1

Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:

Man, all I hear is how good New England is going to be this year. Way to much hype and in my opinion all there's room for is let down. Moss is going to be superman, the defense is so much improved that it'll stop the best of offenses etc....

Click to expand...

The irony of a Cowboys fan saying this is just delicious!

Only once has a NE RB carries the ball 300+ times for Belichick in a single season, Dillon a couple of years ago. However, I don't think any back has been as good as Maroney, so I could see him reaching the 300+ carry level if not for the increased number of passing game weapons. I think 300 carries would be Maroney's ceiling with 275 more likely.

275-1237-10, 35-308-1

I wonder if NE would consider bringing Dillon back .....

wannabee said:

I wonder if NE would consider bringing Dillon back .....

Click to expand...

I suspect that the Pats made Dillon a low ball offer and said "let us know if you want to play for that" and all he would need to do is check in and he may be able to come back. That being said, I doubt it would materialize.

David Yudkin said:

wannabee said:

I wonder if NE would consider bringing Dillon back .....

Click to expand...

I suspect that the Pats made Dillon a low ball offer and said "let us know if you want to play for that" and all he would need to do is check in and he may be able to come back. That being said, I doubt it would materialize.

Click to expand...

thank you. I was just thinking about the possibilities if Maroney is hurt worse than most think at this point

wannabee said:

David Yudkin said:

wannabee said:

I wonder if NE would consider bringing Dillon back .....

Click to expand...

I suspect that the Pats made Dillon a low ball offer and said "let us know if you want to play for that" and all he would need to do is check in and he may be able to come back. That being said, I doubt it would materialize.

Click to expand...

thank you. I was just thinking about the possibilities if Maroney is hurt worse than most think at this point

Click to expand...

NE has gotten away with putting stars like Patrick Pass and Heath Evans in the backfield if necessary . . . doubt that they are interested in Dillon at this point . . .

2007 Laurance Maroney = 2006 Willie Parker

Granted he is healthy, I see a rather big year from Maroney. The NE O just has too many weapons and he should benefit from that greatly.

Rushing: 275 carries, 1240 yds, 14 TDs

Receiving: 30 reception, 270 yds, 1 TD

I'll bump it after two weeks.

I'll go the optimistic route.

320/1440 yds 4.5 ave. 13 tds

40 catches 360 yds 9 ave. 2 tds

He is a homerun threat, and a decent receiving threat. Defenses cannot just key on him. I may actually have a conservative rushing average.

He should easily be top ten this year.

Q-Bert said:

Biabreakable said:

I am planning to still tweak these projections for greater detail as the offseason goes on. There is some uncertainty surrounding Maroneys future that stems from him always being a part of a RBBC. In college and also in his 1st year as a pro. I do not see Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk as great threats to Maroney's opportunity at this time but it is possible that the Patriots may add another RB to time share with him. There are concerns about his health (shoulder) and overall durability as well. The Patriots offensive skill players have changed greatly this offseason which adds to the uncertainty and speculation surrounding this offense. Moreso than the majority of other offenses in the NFL who have more stability in thier personel to draw patterns from.That being said Lawrence Maroney projections 2007-2009:2007 240-315 carries 1080-1417 yards 4.5 ypc 10-14TD 25-40 catches 220-352 yards 1TD2008 260-320 carries 1196-1472 yards 4.6 ypc 10-14TD 25-45 catches 220-396 yards 1-2TD2009 260-320 carries 1070-1440 yards 4.5 ypc 10-13TD 30-60 catches 264-528 yards 1-3TDSome notes about these numbers:I use/develop projection ranges from team projections that give me a high and low expectation. Some players projection ranges will be tighter than others when thier performance and situations are more stable and predictable. Players with high variance in thier projections are more risk/reward than players with a tighter projection range. While building/adjusting my teams I may opt for a player that is more reliable but with less upside or vice versa depending on the league, the flow of the draft/trade value or other players on my team. I prefer a projection range to a static projection because it helps me manage risk while also giving me a more reasonable expectation of a players relative value.If you prefer a static number for ranking purposes then I would suggest using the low, middle or high portion of this projection range depending on your view of Maroney and view towards projections in general, be they pessimistic or optimistic for most if not all players.For 2007 I am taking a more conservative view in regards to what I expect within Maroney's projection range. I consider it more likely that Maroney performs on the low end of my 2007 projection than the high end. Yet I am still factoring in his upside. I could still see the floor of this projection being reduced if shoulder injury lingers or if another RB that is more competitive than Morris is added to the roster.In 2008 I expect his workload to increase based off of some recent historical study of RB performance as well as some common sense factors such as Maroney improved conditioning and experience in feature role from 2007. I also see Kevin Faulk declining/being phased out in 2008 so a slight increase in Maroneys role in the passing game.In 2009 I have a modest drop for Maroney in YPC due to seeing him as more established feature back as well as questions about surrounding cast supporting him or not 2 years out. I see Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris being out of the picture by 2009 and thus the additional increase in catches for Maroney as Faulk moves on. I never give equal weight to the 3rd year of a projection I make to the 1st 2 as I know so many things can and probobly will change by this time. The projection is more a place holder of long term value as a check to see if 1st 2 years can be reasonably maintained/improve/decline.

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This was really excellent posting. Maroney is a guy I am very intrigued by and am having a hard time placing a value on. This was extremely helpful.

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I really appreciate all the work and thought you put into the stat projectons. I think a Healthy Maroney will settle in as a top 15 back and maybe exceed that for one or two years. The shoulder is a Huge concern and the Patriots tend to underplay the status of their injured players. If Maroney takes the field to start this year I would put his numbers closer to 900 yards and a half dozen TD's. I think he will finish with a few/very few number of receptions. It would not shock me to see Maroney placed on the PUP list if he does not recover fully from this injury. Him and Chad Jackson could be watching from the stands. New England could run a Broomstick as a RB and still win enough games to go to the playoff's (Mike Cloud was little more than a Cardboard cutout that fell forward at the line of scrimmage) I'll state that its just as likely in my opinion that Sammy Morris has a studly year as Maroney to crack the top ten in 2007.Like I've said many times everyone falls in love with the next greatest thing to come along. Take Maroney as a Number 3 back this year and hope for number 2 production.

We all know how Belichick can be candid with his players injuries...maybe he's dead, maybe he's alive. Remember when he even listed Rex Grossman on the Pats injury report.

Belichick Confuses Bears By Putting Rex Grossman On Injury Report.

"Chicago Bears players and coaches were surprised on Tuesday morning to discover that their quarterback, Rex Grossman, had been listed as ‘doubtful’ on the New England Patriots injury report".

I don't believe we'll know how Maroney's shoulder will be by words alone. I'll have to let the Pre-season play out.

But, if I had to project his stats today...Total=1600/15

its nearly impossible to read thru the Belichick smokescreens, but the fact that the team didnt pursue the likes of a relatively proven runner like Chris Brown, or try to bring back Corey Dillon at a lower contract seems to indicate that theyre just not as concerned as much about Maroney's shoulder as most other people are. Sammy Morris is a career role player, not a proven feature back. I dont think theyre expecting to have to lean on him for more than 6 or 700 rushing yds at the most. But at season's end, I think the #s these two backs will put up will resemble the #s the Colts' backs had last year. I can see Maroney with 900-1000yds tops and 7 or 8 TDs, and Morris with around 500yds and 5 or 6 TDs. Faulk, Evans and others will probably share about 5 TDs and enough situational yardage to keep the NE running game on par with what it normally produces. I just see this situation as the classic committee attack in '07. Guys taking Maroney in or near the top 10 of drafts are taking a big risk, imo.

twitch said:

its nearly impossible to read thru the Belichick smokescreens, but the fact that the team didnt pursue the likes of a relatively proven runner like Chris Brown, or try to bring back Corey Dillon at a lower contract seems to indicate that theyre just not as concerned as much about Maroney's shoulder as most other people are.

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The Pats did pursue Brown and apparently they did not offer him the $$$ he wanted. And I believe the team spoke with Dillon about taking a pretty decent pay cut and he did not want to play for not much more than the league minimum. Basically, I think the Pats explored both areas that you mentioned. Dillon apparently did not want to continue taking a pounding for low dollars.

twitch said:

its nearly impossible to read thru the Belichick smokescreens, but the fact that the team didnt pursue the likes of a relatively proven runner like Chris Brown, or try to bring back Corey Dillon at a lower contract seems to indicate that theyre just not as concerned as much about Maroney's shoulder as most other people are.

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This is my line of thinking...BB says Maroney is going to be fine and the Pats haven't gone after a free agent RB agressively.Both actions and words tell me Maroney will be healthy and starting week one.