Player Spotlight: Reggie Bush (1 Viewer)

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link: Reggie Bush Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

175/725/6 rushing

82/720/4 receiving

I used to think Bush was destined for 300 carries in NO some day but after watching him in a 2 back system in college, and now at the NFL level too...I just gotta think that they try and keep him between 180-240 carries tops a season. There is no end to the amount of catches he can get though. Have we ever had a 100 catch RB? Centers'95 comes to mind...Reggie can break that record. No real threat at the WR2 position so Bush can be option #1 or #2 for all pass plays.

200 carries, 850 yds, 6TD

100 receptions, 1,000 yds, 6 TD...I forsee him breaking off some big ones out of the backfield this year.

300 touches, 1,850 total yds, and 12 TDs...that's about right.

Ministry of Pain said:

I used to think Bush was destined for 300 carries in NO some day but after watching him in a 2 back system in college, and now at the NFL level too...I just gotta think that they try and keep him between 180-240 carries tops a season. There is no end to the amount of catches he can get though. Have we ever had a 100 catch RB? Centers'95 comes to mind...Reggie can break that record. No real threat at the WR2 position so Bush can be option #1 or #2 for all pass plays.

200 carries, 850 yds, 6TD

100 receptions, 1,000 yds, 6 TD...I forsee him breaking off some big ones out of the backfield this year.

300 touches, 1,850 total yds, and 12 TDs...that's about right.

Click to expand...

LT 2003 100 rec. Bush 180 rushes, 774 yards, 6 td

85 rec. 900 yards 4td

I think he has excellent potential to be a top 10 RB in most fantasy scoring systems.

Here is McAllister's base salary info from nflpa.org:

2006 1450000.00

2007 2600000.00

2008 3600000.00

2009 5200000.00

2010 6200000.00

2011 7100000.00

2012 8100000.00

I doubt McAllister's contract will stick after 2008, when he will be 30, and it's possible they could ask him to rework it after this season. I would expect him to be traded or cut, depending on how well he performs over the next two seasons (and how well Bush performs). Knowing that is coming, I'd expect the touches at RB to slowly shift more to Bush over the next two years.

As to Bush's fantasy potential, consider this:

Games 1-8: 80/200/0 rushing (2.5 ypc) and 47/318/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving on 60 targets = 51.8 fantasy points

Games 9-16: 74/358/6 rushing (4.8 ypc) and 42/430/2 (10.2 ypr) receiving on 61 targets = 126.8 fantasy points

And note that the second half split includes week 17 against Carolina when Bush played only one quarter.

And then he followed that up with 225 total yards and 2 TDs in 2 playoff games against Philly and Chicago.

Project his second half to 16 games and you get 148/716/12 rushing and 82/860/4... and his playoff performance makes that seem like a pretty valid projection, especially considering the competition.

Do I think Bush will produce like the second half for all of next season? Well, the TDs and the yards per carry and reception may tough to duplicate, but then again I'd expect more than 148 carries and very possibly more than 82 catches.

I'll go with:

180/828/9 (4.6 ypc) rushing

85/765/4 (9.0 ypr) receiving

That is 237 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which would have ranked him as RB #8 last season.

SDJohnny said:

Ministry of Pain said:

I used to think Bush was destined for 300 carries in NO some day but after watching him in a 2 back system in college, and now at the NFL level too...I just gotta think that they try and keep him between 180-240 carries tops a season. There is no end to the amount of catches he can get though. Have we ever had a 100 catch RB? Centers'95 comes to mind...Reggie can break that record. No real threat at the WR2 position so Bush can be option #1 or #2 for all pass plays.

200 carries, 850 yds, 6TD

100 receptions, 1,000 yds, 6 TD...I forsee him breaking off some big ones out of the backfield this year.

300 touches, 1,850 total yds, and 12 TDs...that's about right.

Click to expand...

LT 2003 100 rec. Bush 180 rushes, 774 yards, 6 td

85 rec. 900 yards 34td

Click to expand...

More of the same from last year. A monster in ppr league but a good RB2 in regular leagues. I think last year it took him some time to adjust to the NFL and once he did he was a monster. I expect him to put up more TDs (Peyton didnt really have a goalline back and used both McCallister and Bush alot at the goalline). I expect about 12 carries a game with about 5-8 receptions a game. I also expect his ypc to increase and him to look more like the RB from the 2nd half of last year.

180 att, 800 yds, 6 tds, 90 rec, 750 yds, 6 tds

He will build on last year - should be a top back as this offense has now had time to click. Fun to watch if nothing else...

200 rushes, 850 yards, 7 tds

90 receptions, 900 yards, 8 tds

1750 yards, 15 tds total

Reggie Bush's forte is speed and working in space. Reggie got dinged in his first start last year where he had 15 carries and only had one game where he had that many carries. His yards per carry leapt over the last month and a half but his highest carry game, 20 totes against the NYG, came sanwiched inbetween 3 and 7 carry games so I don't think the Saints have big plans to use Reggie more as workhorse RB. The thing to get excited about with him per running the football is that he started to be a consistent scoring threat at the goal line over the last month. Bush only had one rushing TD over the first 11 games but then he had three rushing TDs in the 12th game. He then scored in three consecutive games down the stretch of the year which proved the Saints had found a way to utilize him at the goal line.

Although Reggie proved he can be an effective weapon along the goal line I don't see him getting a large number of increased carries. On the other hand I see no reason why his reception totals can't increase.

In his first game he caught 7 balls and had seven games with at least 7 receptions. He had three 100 recieving games but only one 100 yard rushing game. His longest reception was 74 yards whereas his longest run from scrimmage was only 25 yards. His second longest reception was 61 yards but his second longest run was only 18 yards. The visions that the fantasy football world has of Reggie Bush busting off huge runs never materialized but those same big game breaking plays came to fruition when Bush got the ball in his hands in space as a pass receiver. That is Reggie Bush's perfect role, that is where a smart OC would best utilize his skills if he wants to see huge game breaking plays. This is how I project Bush's number for the upcoming season.

2007 projected totals for Reggie Bush:

155 carries for 630 yards

8 rushing TDs

100 receptions for 1,000 yards

5 receiving TDs

I see 1,630 combined yards with over a dozen combined scores.

Even though these are solid numbers Reggie is very inconsistent so even though those numbers would be solid #1RB numbers you can't count on them coming when you want them so if you have Bush as your primary RB you'll do well sometimes but more than likely get killed a few games along the way. Bush is only 6' and 203 lbs. I don't think the Saints are going to run him in situations he's not their best option and if they have McAllister Reggie Bush is not going to see a great increase in his rushing totals and if you are a Reggie Bush owner and want to see him get more big plays then you'll want him catching more balls and letting Deuce handle the heavy lifting. Just my humble opinion.

Bracie Smathers said:

Reggie Bush's forte is speed and working in space. Reggie got dinged in his first start last year where he had 15 carries and only had one game where he had that many carries. His yards per carry leapt over the last month and a half but his highest carry game, 20 totes against the NYG, came sanwiched inbetween 3 and 7 carry games so I don't think the Saints have big plans to use Reggie more as workhorse RB. The thing to get excited about with him per running the football is that he started to be a consistent scoring threat at the goal line over the last month. Bush only had one rushing TD over the first 11 games but then he had three rushing TDs in the 12th game. He then scored in three consecutive games down the stretch of the year which proved the Saints had found a way to utilize him at the goal line.

Although Reggie proved he can be an effective weapon along the goal line I don't see him getting a large number of increased carries. On the other hand I see no reason why his reception totals can't increase.

In his first game he caught 7 balls and had seven games with at least 7 receptions. He had three 100 recieving games but only one 100 yard rushing game. His longest reception was 74 yards whereas his longest run from scrimmage was only 25 yards. His second longest reception was 61 yards but his second longest run was only 18 yards. The visions that the fantasy football world has of Reggie Bush busting off huge runs never materialized but those same big game breaking plays came to fruition when Bush got the ball in his hands in space as a pass receiver. That is Reggie Bush's perfect role, that is where a smart OC would best utilize his skills if he wants to see huge game breaking plays. This is how I project Bush's number for the upcoming season.

2007 projected totals for Reggie Bush:

155 carries for 630 yards

8 rushing TDs

100 receptions for 1,000 yards

5 receiving TDs

I see 1,630 combined yards with over a dozen combined scores.

Even though these are solid numbers Reggie is very inconsistent so even though those numbers would be solid #1RB numbers you can't count on them coming when you want them so if you have Bush as your primary RB you'll do well sometimes but more than likely get killed a few games along the way. Bush is only 6' and 203 lbs. I don't think the Saints are going to run him in situations he's not their best option and if they have McAllister Reggie Bush is not going to see a great increase in his rushing totals and if you are a Reggie Bush owner and want to see him get more big plays then you'll want him catching more balls and letting Deuce handle the heavy lifting. Just my humble opinion.

Click to expand...

Good post. On the bolded item, I actually see that as a reason for optimism for Bush in the running game. With his speed and moves, he is bound to break a few longer runs sooner or later. For someone who will generally be projected in the 600 to 900 rushing yards range, breaking two 50+ yarders is a big deal. Of course there is no guarantee he'll do that, but it is very possible.

Just Win Baby said:

Bracie Smathers said:

Reggie Bush's forte is speed and working in space. Reggie got dinged in his first start last year where he had 15 carries and only had one game where he had that many carries. His yards per carry leapt over the last month and a half but his highest carry game, 20 totes against the NYG, came sanwiched inbetween 3 and 7 carry games so I don't think the Saints have big plans to use Reggie more as workhorse RB. The thing to get excited about with him per running the football is that he started to be a consistent scoring threat at the goal line over the last month. Bush only had one rushing TD over the first 11 games but then he had three rushing TDs in the 12th game. He then scored in three consecutive games down the stretch of the year which proved the Saints had found a way to utilize him at the goal line.

Although Reggie proved he can be an effective weapon along the goal line I don't see him getting a large number of increased carries. On the other hand I see no reason why his reception totals can't increase.

In his first game he caught 7 balls and had seven games with at least 7 receptions. He had three 100 recieving games but only one 100 yard rushing game. His longest reception was 74 yards whereas his longest run from scrimmage was only 25 yards. His second longest reception was 61 yards but his second longest run was only 18 yards. The visions that the fantasy football world has of Reggie Bush busting off huge runs never materialized but those same big game breaking plays came to fruition when Bush got the ball in his hands in space as a pass receiver. That is Reggie Bush's perfect role, that is where a smart OC would best utilize his skills if he wants to see huge game breaking plays. This is how I project Bush's number for the upcoming season.

2007 projected totals for Reggie Bush:

155 carries for 630 yards

8 rushing TDs

100 receptions for 1,000 yards

5 receiving TDs

I see 1,630 combined yards with over a dozen combined scores.

Even though these are solid numbers Reggie is very inconsistent so even though those numbers would be solid #1RB numbers you can't count on them coming when you want them so if you have Bush as your primary RB you'll do well sometimes but more than likely get killed a few games along the way. Bush is only 6' and 203 lbs. I don't think the Saints are going to run him in situations he's not their best option and if they have McAllister Reggie Bush is not going to see a great increase in his rushing totals and if you are a Reggie Bush owner and want to see him get more big plays then you'll want him catching more balls and letting Deuce handle the heavy lifting. Just my humble opinion.

Click to expand...

Good post. On the bolded item, I actually see that as a reason for optimism for Bush in the running game. With his speed and moves, he is bound to break a few longer runs sooner or later. For someone who will generally be projected in the 600 to 900 rushing yards range, breaking two 50+ yarders is a big deal. Of course there is no guarantee he'll do that, but it is very possible.

Click to expand...

Yeah and I made a mistake in that I didn't note his long run came in the post season. Also in the post season he had his longest reception of 88 yards. So his longest reception was 88 yards and his second longest was 74 and his third longest was 61 yards whereas his longest run was still 25 yards and his second and third longest runs were 18 yards. And to compare with Deuce since we both weighed in on the McAllister thread, Deuce's longest run last year was a 57 yarder and his second third longest runs were, 35 and 30 yards respectively. Deuce had six games with runs exceeding twenty yards whereas Reggie only had one. Small sample size but I was expecting more long runs last year from Bush as I'm sure most everyone following fantasy football was so even though your projection of a few long runs is reasonable and certainly attainable by Bush, I'm from Missouri on this one. I'll believe it when I see it and I have seen Reggie bust open when he has room to manuver in space after catching the rock so I think that has been the plan and will continue to be the plan. Any long runs are welcome since I'm a Bush and McAllister owner but I'm not expecting them to occur so I didn't put them in my projections but I'd love to see a few.

Reggie IMO is comparable to Charlie Garner so I will predict Garner type numbers of:

Rushing: 180 attempts 830 yards 7 TDs

Receiving: 72 receptions 900 yards 4 TDs

Total yardage: 1730

Just Win Baby said:

I think he has excellent potential to be a top 10 RB in most fantasy scoring systems.Here is McAllister's base salary info from nflpa.org:2006 1450000.00 2007 2600000.00 2008 3600000.00 2009 5200000.00 2010 6200000.00 2011 7100000.00 2012 8100000.00 I doubt McAllister's contract will stick after 2008, when he will be 30, and it's possible they could ask him to rework it after this season. I would expect him to be traded or cut, depending on how well he performs over the next two seasons (and how well Bush performs). Knowing that is coming, I'd expect the touches at RB to slowly shift more to Bush over the next two years.As to Bush's fantasy potential, consider this:Games 1-8: 80/200/0 rushing (2.5 ypc) and 47/318/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving on 60 targets = 51.8 fantasy pointsGames 9-16: 74/358/6 rushing (4.8 ypc) and 42/430/2 (10.2 ypr) receiving on 61 targets = 126.8 fantasy pointsAnd note that the second half split includes week 17 against Carolina when Bush played only one quarter.And then he followed that up with 225 total yards and 2 TDs in 2 playoff games against Philly and Chicago.Project his second half to 16 games and you get 148/716/12 rushing and 82/860/4... and his playoff performance makes that seem like a pretty valid projection, especially considering the competition.Do I think Bush will produce like the second half for all of next season? Well, the TDs and the yards per carry and reception may tough to duplicate, but then again I'd expect more than 148 carries and very possibly more than 82 catches.I'll go with:180/828/9 (4.6 ypc) rushing85/765/4 (9.0 ypr) receivingThat is 237 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which would have ranked him as RB #8 last season.

Click to expand...

Just correcting something I observed:Weeks 9-16 were 82-33-5 and a 4.06 YPC while his recptions were 44-439-2. The only reason I mention this is that the only concern I have about Bush is his woeful YPC of 3.6. It didn't get much better and if not for week 16 his YPC those weeks was a mere 3.33. I know we don't except out games as they all count but in non ppr leagues this has to be a concern. I'm not yet sold that he can be a dominate rusher. Catching the ball is no issue, he's the man. But for a guy that's suppose to be that good you'd think his YPC would be a little higher. Just saying I'm not ready to go overboard on him yet.

Family Matters said:

Just correcting something I observed:

Weeks 9-16 were 82-33-5 and a 4.06 YPC while his recptions were 44-439-2. The only reason I mention this is that the only concern I have about Bush is his woeful YPC of 3.6. It didn't get much better and if not for week 16 his YPC those weeks was a mere 3.33. I know we don't except out games as they all count but in non ppr leagues this has to be a concern. I'm not yet sold that he can be a dominate rusher. Catching the ball is no issue, he's the man. But for a guy that's suppose to be that good you'd think his YPC would be a little higher. Just saying I'm not ready to go overboard on him yet.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers.First of all, I was referring to *games* 9-16, not weeks 9-16. That splits it into first 8 games vs. second 8 games.

In games 9-16, his totals according to FBG were:

74/358/6 rushing

42/430/2 receiving

(By the way, here I'd like to insert another plug for not lumping playoff games into second half splits and listing them separately instead.)

It is true that Bush had 20/126/1 rushing in week 16. But even if you throw that out, here was his ypc in the second half:

game 9 - 4.9

game 10 - 3.9

game 11 - 4.8

game 12 - 3.7

game 13 - 6.2

game 14 - 2.0

game 16 - 6.7

Definitely inconsistent, but not as bad as you make it out to be. Altogether he averaged 4.3 ypc in those games, even leaving out his big game in week 16. And then he followed up in the playoffs with 12/52/1 rushing against Philly (4.3 ypc) and 4/19/0 (4.8 ypc) against the Bears in a game in which the Saints were blown out and faced a great defense on the road.

shadyridr said:

I think last year it took him some time to adjust to the NFL and once he did he was a monster.

Click to expand...

.....catching the ball, yeah. Did very well. He sucked more often than not rushing wise though. And after going totally scoreless the first entire half of the season, he still only scored in half of the games the 2d half. I don't call that a "monster." Basically I think he'll again be overpriced and drive owners nuts w/his up n down production (admittedly part of which is due to McAllister). No thanks.

Two arguments for upside:

link

Bush apparently banged up his ankle in week 1, and then again in week 8. One would think his performance was hampered because of it.

The other thing I noticed last year was that Bush got over his penchant for dancing in the backfield and trying to make every run into a big play. Around week 9/10, he started hitting the hole more decisively. Was it a coincidence that his rushing numbers, especially TDs, took off after this? The ankle could also be part of the explanation.

I have a feeling the 2nd half Bush is the "real" Bush...

Ministry of Pain said:

I used to think Bush was destined for 300 carries in NO some day but after watching him in a 2 back system in college, and now at the NFL level too...I just gotta think that they try and keep him between 180-240 carries tops a season. There is no end to the amount of catches he can get though. Have we ever had a 100 catch RB? Centers'95 comes to mind...Reggie can break that record. No real threat at the WR2 position so Bush can be option #1 or #2 for all pass plays.200 carries, 850 yds, 6TD100 receptions, 1,000 yds, 6 TD...I forsee him breaking off some big ones out of the backfield this year.300 touches, 1,850 total yds, and 12 TDs...that's about right.

Click to expand...

I like your numbers.I have him in a league that awards 1.5 pts per reception for running backs. TE's are awarded 2.0 pts per catch and I just happen to have Antonio Gates. He could be platinum with those kind of points given. WR's are given 1 pt. per catch.I like Bracie Smathers numbers too. He has..........155 rushes/ 630 rushing yds./ 8 td's100 recptions/ 1000 receiving yds/; 5 td'sRegardless I think Bush's overall numbers will be better than last year. It'll be hard to improve on his 85 catches last year, but he has the ability to do it and the right QB to get him the ball. As I said I like your numbers and Bracie's. I think mine are a little higher but I guess I'm biased since he's on my roster.2007 Reggie Bush totals IMO: 180 rushes/ 850 rushing yds./ 8 td's ***- 4.72 ypc 91 receptions/ 1,025 receiving yds./ 7 td's ***- 11.26 ypr-------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,875 total yds./ 15 td's

Sigmund Bloom said:

Two arguments for upside:

link

Bush apparently banged up his ankle in week 1, and then again in week 8. One would think his performance was hampered because of it.

Click to expand...

Well, Bush is my lone keeper in a league I'm in, so I'm really hoping your optimism is spot on. However, after reading the link you provided, I'm wondering if we shouldn't be concerned that He injured his ankle in Week 1, Week 8, and again in the offseason (playing basketball). Is it reasonable to expect that the three injuries to his ankle in under a year is just a freakish coincidence?

Blitzkrieg88 said:

He will build on last year - should be a top back as this offense has now had time to click. Fun to watch if nothing else...200 rushes, 850 yards, 7 tds90 receptions, 900 yards, 8 tds1750 yards, 15 tds total

Click to expand...

dittogame breaker!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!I think with New Orleans looking to find a strong #2 wr during the season will help Bush's recieving #'s stay strong. Maybe a tad high on the rushing avg. but with the ability to break a long one that # is definetly in reach. The only bad thing about Bush's #'s might be that he could be inconsistant.I see him having some huge games and some less than stellar.

bump

I want to see more projections on him please

I believe that Reggie Bush will be a slight disappointment to those that draft him in 2007, principally based on the perception that Reggie Bush turned it on in the second half of 2006 and that his role will be increased this year.

Reggie Bush's role did increase toward the end of 2006, but not nearly as much as the perception. Let's look at the first ten games and the last five games of 2006 for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. I disregarded game 16 as Deuce did not play and Reggie's role was minimal.

First ten games in 06

Deuce McAllister 135 rushes for 583 yds (4.31 ypc) and 21 receptions for 140 yds & 6 TDs 15.6 touch/gm

Reggie Bush 104 rushes for 256 yds (2.46 ypc) and 61 receptions for 410 yds & 1 total TDs 16.5 touch/gm

Reggie averaged almost a touch per game more than Deuce, but was not as effective as he had a lot of lost yard rushes and only one touchdown.

Last five games in 06

Deuce McAllister 109 rushes for 474 yds (4.3 ypc) and 9 receptions for 58 yds 4 total TDs 23.6 touch/gm

Reggie Bush 48 rushes for 238 yds (4.9 ypc) and 25 receptions for 319 yds and 6 total TDs 14.8 touch/gm

Reggie had a slight increase in touches, but actually a decrease in team involvement as Deuce was used much more. Reggie was much more effective as he had fewer lost yardage rushes and a few very long TDs. His TD per game went from 0.1 over the first ten games to 1.2 in the last five.

I think that his carries will increase much less than perceptions and his effectness will slightly improve...

Reggie Bush 190 carries 836 yards (4.4 ypc) 80 receptions for 690 yards and 12 total TDs

Edited miscalculation in rushing carries for games 11-15, but stick with projection

Sigmund Bloom said:

Two arguments for upside:

link

Bush apparently banged up his ankle in week 1, and then again in week 8. One would think his performance was hampered because of it.

The other thing I noticed last year was that Bush got over his penchant for dancing in the backfield and trying to make every run into a big play. Around week 9/10, he started hitting the hole more decisively. Was it a coincidence that his rushing numbers, especially TDs, took off after this? The ankle could also be part of the explanation.

I have a feeling the 2nd half Bush is the "real" Bush...

Click to expand...

He also didn't use his speed properly. He often ran too fast out of the gate and didn't use his blockers.H is now healthy and ready to improve.

rzrback77 said:

I believe that Reggie Bush will be a slight disappointment to those that draft him in 2007, principally based on the perception that Reggie Bush turned it on in the second half of 2006 and that his role will be increased this year.Reggie Bush's role did increase toward the end of 2006, but not nearly as much as the perception. Let's look at the first ten games and the last five games of 2006 for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. I disregarded game 16 as Deuce did not play and Reggie's role was minimal.First ten games in 06Deuce McAllister 135 rushes for 583 yds (4.31 ypc) and 21 receptions for 140 yds & 6 TDs 15.6 touch/gmReggie Bush 104 rushes for 256 yds (2.46 ypc) and 61 receptions for 410 yds & 1 total TDs 16.5 touch/gmReggie averaged almost a touch per game more than Deuce, but was not as effective as he had a lot of lost yard rushes and only one touchdown.Last five games in 06 Deuce McAllister 130 rushes for 474 yds (3.65 ypc) and 9 receptions for 58 yds 4 total TDs 27.8 touch/gmReggie Bush 61 rushes for 238 yds (3.90 ypc) and 25 receptions for 319 yds and 6 total TDs 17.2 touch/gmReggie had a slight increase in touches, but actually a decrease in team involvement as Deuce was used much more. Reggie was much more effective as he had fewer lost yardage rushes and a few very long TDs. His TD per game went from 0.1 over the first ten games to 1.2 in the last five.I think that his carries will increase much less than perceptions and his effectness will slightly improve... Reggie Bush 190 carries 836 yards (4.4 ypc) 80 receptions for 690 yards and 12 total TDs

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I'm a huge Bush fan but I have to applaude your info here and say good homework. It's good information to pass on. I don't really know if it is really bad news for Bush owners as well as just good info to know. BTW why would you consider owners to be disappointed with Bush if he got 1500 yards and 12 td's. I for one would be giddy. Last year that would put him #7 in my league and even better in ppr leagues.

rzrback77 said:

I believe that Reggie Bush will be a slight disappointment to those that draft him in 2007, principally based on the perception that Reggie Bush turned it on in the second half of 2006 and that his role will be increased this year.Reggie Bush's role did increase toward the end of 2006, but not nearly as much as the perception. Let's look at the first ten games and the last five games of 2006 for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. I disregarded game 16 as Deuce did not play and Reggie's role was minimal.First ten games in 06Deuce McAllister 135 rushes for 583 yds (4.31 ypc) and 21 receptions for 140 yds & 6 TDs 15.6 touch/gmReggie Bush 104 rushes for 256 yds (2.46 ypc) and 61 receptions for 410 yds & 1 total TDs 16.5 touch/gmReggie averaged almost a touch per game more than Deuce, but was not as effective as he had a lot of lost yard rushes and only one touchdown.Last five games in 06 Deuce McAllister 130 rushes for 474 yds (3.65 ypc) and 9 receptions for 58 yds 4 total TDs 27.8 touch/gmReggie Bush 61 rushes for 238 yds (3.90 ypc) and 25 receptions for 319 yds and 6 total TDs 17.2 touch/gmReggie had a slight increase in touches, but actually a decrease in team involvement as Deuce was used much more. Reggie was much more effective as he had fewer lost yardage rushes and a few very long TDs. His TD per game went from 0.1 over the first ten games to 1.2 in the last five.I think that his carries will increase much less than perceptions and his effectness will slightly improve... Reggie Bush 190 carries 836 yards (4.4 ypc) 80 receptions for 690 yards and 12 total TDs

Click to expand...

Your numbers appear to be off. The last 5 games I think you are citing are weeks 12-16 (games 11-15) of the regular season. Here are the numbers over that span (from the Data Dominator)euce - 109/474/4 rushing (4.35 ypc), 9/58/0 receiving (6.44 ypr) on 10 targets - 23.6 touches per gameBush - 48/238/4 rushing (4.96 ypc), 25/319/2 receiving (12.76 ypr) on 36 targets - 14.6 touches per gameDid I misinterpret something here?Your point is still valid as far as touches per game. But I'm not sure anyone has cited his second half performance as being a good indicator for this year because he got more touches... it is because of what he did with his touches. Bush had 557 total yards and 6 TDs over that 5 game span, better on both counts than Deuce's 532/4, despite the fact that Bush had so many fewer touches.Now, I happen to believe the touches will shift a bit more towards Bush, as I posted earlier. But I think it is a case of Bush's late season performance earning him more touches this year, not a mistaken sense that he got more touches late last year and thus will get more for the season this year.All that said, our projections are pretty close, and I'd be surprised if Bush gets drafted at a position that would make those numbers disappointing.

rzrback77 said:

I believe that Reggie Bush will be a slight disappointment to those that draft him in 2007, principally based on the perception that Reggie Bush turned it on in the second half of 2006 and that his role will be increased this year.Reggie Bush's role did increase toward the end of 2006, but not nearly as much as the perception. Let's look at the first ten games and the last five games of 2006 for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. I disregarded game 16 as Deuce did not play and Reggie's role was minimal.First ten games in 06Deuce McAllister 135 rushes for 583 yds (4.31 ypc) and 21 receptions for 140 yds & 6 TDs 15.6 touch/gmReggie Bush 104 rushes for 256 yds (2.46 ypc) and 61 receptions for 410 yds & 1 total TDs 16.5 touch/gmReggie averaged almost a touch per game more than Deuce, but was not as effective as he had a lot of lost yard rushes and only one touchdown.Last five games in 06 Deuce McAllister 130 rushes for 474 yds (3.65 ypc) and 9 receptions for 58 yds 4 total TDs 27.8 touch/gmReggie Bush 61 rushes for 238 yds (3.90 ypc) and 25 receptions for 319 yds and 6 total TDs 17.2 touch/gmReggie had a slight increase in touches, but actually a decrease in team involvement as Deuce was used much more. Reggie was much more effective as he had fewer lost yardage rushes and a few very long TDs. His TD per game went from 0.1 over the first ten games to 1.2 in the last five.I think that his carries will increase much less than perceptions and his effectness will slightly improve... Reggie Bush 190 carries 836 yards (4.4 ypc) 80 receptions for 690 yards and 12 total TDs

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What's your justification for breaking it down first 10 vs. last 5? That seems like an odd place to split it.Also, in those last 5 games the Saints had 4 blowout wins of 31-13, 42-17, 30-7, and 34-10. They had only two wins even near that caliber in the first 10 games. I think that is a big reason we saw lots of carries for Deuce there, as he pounded the clock with the big lead while Reggie rested on the sideline. I would be interested in seeing their splits in the first half or first three quarters of those games. If anything I would say Deuce's numbers were inflated by a string of blowout wins that they weren't experiencing nearly as often throughout most of the season more than anything else.

FreeBaGeL said:

rzrback77 said:

I believe that Reggie Bush will be a slight disappointment to those that draft him in 2007, principally based on the perception that Reggie Bush turned it on in the second half of 2006 and that his role will be increased this year.Reggie Bush's role did increase toward the end of 2006, but not nearly as much as the perception. Let's look at the first ten games and the last five games of 2006 for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. I disregarded game 16 as Deuce did not play and Reggie's role was minimal.First ten games in 06Deuce McAllister 135 rushes for 583 yds (4.31 ypc) and 21 receptions for 140 yds & 6 TDs 15.6 touch/gmReggie Bush 104 rushes for 256 yds (2.46 ypc) and 61 receptions for 410 yds & 1 total TDs 16.5 touch/gmReggie averaged almost a touch per game more than Deuce, but was not as effective as he had a lot of lost yard rushes and only one touchdown.Last five games in 06 Deuce McAllister 130 rushes for 474 yds (3.65 ypc) and 9 receptions for 58 yds 4 total TDs 27.8 touch/gmReggie Bush 61 rushes for 238 yds (3.90 ypc) and 25 receptions for 319 yds and 6 total TDs 17.2 touch/gmReggie had a slight increase in touches, but actually a decrease in team involvement as Deuce was used much more. Reggie was much more effective as he had fewer lost yardage rushes and a few very long TDs. His TD per game went from 0.1 over the first ten games to 1.2 in the last five.I think that his carries will increase much less than perceptions and his effectness will slightly improve... Reggie Bush 190 carries 836 yards (4.4 ypc) 80 receptions for 690 yards and 12 total TDs

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What's your justification for breaking it down first 10 vs. last 5? That seems like an odd place to split it.Also, in those last 5 games the Saints had 4 blowout wins of 31-13, 42-17, 30-7, and 34-10. They had only two wins even near that caliber in the first 10 games. I think that is a big reason we saw lots of carries for Deuce there, as he pounded the clock with the big lead while Reggie rested on the sideline. I would be interested in seeing their splits in the first half or first three quarters of those games. If anything I would say Deuce's numbers were inflated by a string of blowout wins that they weren't experiencing nearly as often throughout most of the season more than anything else.

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The split point was where I noticed a marked increase in the number of rushing attempts. It coincided with the Saints dominance over opponents, which I beleive we may see more often this year as their defense improves.As to the disappointment for Bush's stats, I have been tracking some dynasty drafts and he has been going 4th through 6th. I just checked his FBG ADP and it was 11th, so my statement about disappointment was definitely incorrect. I would be very happy with that production from the 11th RB taken.

Anyone think the sophomore jinx could hit Reggie?

175/750/5

80/700/4

1450/8

First round BUST.

Deuce McAllister is New Orleans' RB. Reggie Bush is New Orleans' scatback. Deuce gets the carries. Reggie gets the receptions. Deuce gets the rushing yardage. Reggie gets the receiving yardage. Deuce pounds the rock into the endzone. Reggie busts the long ones.

Honestly, it's a pickem to me on who is going to finish better in non-PPR formats. But Deuce goes at least 1 round later than Bush does.... Why? Do people forget that at one point in time, Deuce was perhaps one of the top3 RBs in the NFL? That this guy also can catch the ball and has had seasons over 2000+ combined yards? Granted things have changed and the situation is obviously different now, but one RB I would not want my fantasy RB to compete against for touches is Deuce McAllister.

How many games last year was Reggie Bush under 10 fantasy points? I count 10. TEN GAMES.

kensat30 said:

175/750/580/700/41450/8First round BUST.

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1450/8 = 193 fantasy points, which would have ranked Reggie Bush as the 10th best RB in fantasy football last year. Last year, 6 of the 11 RBs drafted in the first round failed to crack the top 10 (and another, Rudi Johnson, finished 9th- I didn't hear many of his owners calling him a bust, though).I think perhaps you need to reevaluate your definition of "bust".

kensat30 said:

175/750/5

80/700/4

1450/8

First round BUST.

Deuce McAllister is New Orleans' RB. Reggie Bush is New Orleans' scatback. Deuce gets the carries. Reggie gets the receptions. Deuce gets the rushing yardage. Reggie gets the receiving yardage. Deuce pounds the rock into the endzone. Reggie busts the long ones.

Honestly, it's a pickem to me on who is going to finish better in non-PPR formats. But Deuce goes at least 1 round later than Bush does.... Why? Do people forget that at one point in time, Deuce was perhaps one of the top3 RBs in the NFL? That this guy also can catch the ball and has had seasons over 2000+ combined yards? Granted things have changed and the situation is obviously different now, but one RB I would not want my fantasy RB to compete against for touches is Deuce McAllister.

How many games last year was Reggie Bush under 10 fantasy points? I count 10. TEN GAMES.

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1st I don't know why I'm argueing here with someone that can't add 5 + 4=9 not 8 but regardless.......The facts you say are definetly spun in your direction for your arguement...let me try to reverse it alittle

1) At the end of the year Reggie was getting alot of the carries inside the five.

2) Deuce will never be a threat again in the receiving game

3) Deuce had 8 games @ 10 points or under and add another 4 with 13 points or under (12 total under 13 points)

4) Reggie scored 10 points or more in 7 of his last 10 games including getting pulled against Carolina in the last game of the year and marching down and scoring against them early in the second quarter and still getting 9 points that game.

Reggie is a stud and will move Deuce to a lesser role. I still think Deuce will represent a value if you can get him in the fourth round as he will get yards and td's just not at the rate he is use to.

I think Deuce will get close to a 1,000 yards rushing and about 8 td's but a think Reggie will beat those projections easily.

Reggie Bush had 9 TD's last year (4 of them in 1 game) - considering his talent I have to think he will do better in his 2nd year in the NFL - I don't forsee him having another 4TD game but I do think the TD's will be a bit more spread out this year I'll predict 12 Total TD's.

He only had 155 carries last season and averaged 3.6 yards a carry. I think he gets more carries this season and improves his YPC. Lets say he gets 200 carries and averages 4.0 YPC

He'll be the 2nd option in a high octane passing game (just like he was last year) so I think he gets around his 75 receptions this year.

Final numbers

200/800

75/650

12 total TD's

In my league last year this would have him as the #8 back which is right where I will rank him this season as well

kensat30 said:

Do people forget that at one point in time, Deuce was perhaps one of the top3 RBs in the NFL?

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What season was that?

I love the people calling him a bust or disappointing yet giving him top 10 #s.

It's early, but Antsports has his ADP at 8th overall (usually picked between 5th & 11th.) That tells me I won't be owning him in many drafts this year. Some other RB's behind him may not have his upside, but at least they don't have to share touches with Duece.

I think we need to introduce an concept of something like "quality of touches". I hear lots of talk that Bush should be avoided because he won't get as many touches as other RBs going around the same time, or even Deuce. I think this is only half the story, because Bush's touches on receptions, and even some of his rushing touches, will be much higher quality (as in potential for yardage/TDs) than 100-200 of the carries the typical feature back will get. Bush gets as many touches "in space" as any RB in the league - touches where he's got one guy to beat to turn a 5 yard catch into a 20 yard catch, and two guys to beat/outrun to make it into something even better. We have this kind of idea incorporated in the form of tracking red zone touches, but we need another layer to correctly represent the reality of backs like Bush, MJD, and maybe in the future, guys like Norwood, Booker, and Slaton.

Buckna said:

It's early, but Antsports has his ADP at 8th overal

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Keep in mind, Antsports is full of guys who ride :11:

SSOG said:

kensat30 said:

175/750/580/700/41450/8First round BUST.

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1450/8 = 193 fantasy points, which would have ranked Reggie Bush as the 10th best RB in fantasy football last year. Last year, 6 of the 11 RBs drafted in the first round failed to crack the top 10 (and another, Rudi Johnson, finished 9th- I didn't hear many of his owners calling him a bust, though).I think perhaps you need to reevaluate your definition of "bust".

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If you're drafting for "RB10" in the first round, you are drafting to lose. Especially when that RB10 relies on big plays to score a lot of points.

kensat30 said:

175/750/5

80/700/4

1450/8

First round BUST.

Deuce McAllister is New Orleans' RB. Reggie Bush is New Orleans' scatback. Deuce gets the carries. Reggie gets the receptions. Deuce gets the rushing yardage. Reggie gets the receiving yardage. Deuce pounds the rock into the endzone. Reggie busts the long ones.

Honestly, it's a pickem to me on who is going to finish better in non-PPR formats. But Deuce goes at least 1 round later than Bush does.... Why? Do people forget that at one point in time, Deuce was perhaps one of the top3 RBs in the NFL? That this guy also can catch the ball and has had seasons over 2000+ combined yards? Granted things have changed and the situation is obviously different now, but one RB I would not want my fantasy RB to compete against for touches is Deuce McAllister.

How many games last year was Reggie Bush under 10 fantasy points? I count 10. TEN GAMES.

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Deauce had a total of 1 season with over 2000 combined yards and a total of 2 seasons with more than 1,100 yards rushing. Don't get me wrong, Deuce has had 1 great season and many good ones. He could have been an elite RB if not for his injury. In addition, to his rushing and receiving skills, Bush may also score a couple of special teams TDs. In leagues that award 1 PPR and bonus points for yardage, Bush will definitely be a top 10 RB.

Sigmund Bloom said:

I think we need to introduce an concept of something like "quality of touches". I hear lots of talk that Bush should be avoided because he won't get as many touches as other RBs going around the same time, or even Deuce. I think this is only half the story, because Bush's touches on receptions, and even some of his rushing touches, will be much higher quality (as in potential for yardage/TDs) than 100-200 of the carries the typical feature back will get. Bush gets as many touches "in space" as any RB in the league - touches where he's got one guy to beat to turn a 5 yard catch into a 20 yard catch, and two guys to beat/outrun to make it into something even better. We have this kind of idea incorporated in the form of tracking red zone touches, but we need another layer to correctly represent the reality of backs like Bush, MJD, and maybe in the future, guys like Norwood, Booker, and Slaton.

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Don't forget Brian Westbrook, and before that, Charlie Garner and Michael Pittman.

kensat30 said:

SSOG said:

kensat30 said:

175/750/580/700/41450/8First round BUST.

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1450/8 = 193 fantasy points, which would have ranked Reggie Bush as the 10th best RB in fantasy football last year. Last year, 6 of the 11 RBs drafted in the first round failed to crack the top 10 (and another, Rudi Johnson, finished 9th- I didn't hear many of his owners calling him a bust, though).I think perhaps you need to reevaluate your definition of "bust".

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If you're drafting for "RB10" in the first round, you are drafting to lose. Especially when that RB10 relies on big plays to score a lot of points.

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If you take an RB as the 10th RB off the board, and he finishes as a top-10 RB, and you go so far as to call him a bust, then you are ten kinds of deluded.

Where do you guys see him in PPR leagues?

((Morpheus)) said:

Where do you guys see him in PPR leagues?

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RB3 for me

what a difference a year makes.