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Player Spotlight: Deuce McAllister (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link: Deuce McAllister Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
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Potential SoD material. Deuce is getting overlooked in so many drafts because of "that other guy"... it's just ridiculous. Bush strikes me as an injury waiting to happen. I hope it doesn't happen to the young man, but it would not surprise me. Meanwhile, Deuce is there to get the tough yards and the big carries. Mr. Dependable.

269 carries

1190 yards

13 TDs

35 receptions

242 yards

2 TDs

 
I like him too. Will cede carries to Bush, but he's still an elite talent when healthy.

250 carries, 1090 yds, 10 TDs

22 catches, 180 yds, 0 TDs

 
As well as he played last year, he was still playing only one year after blowing out his knee. I think a lot of people are forgetting that. Year 2 after the injury will only reveal an even better Deuce McAllister.

 
Here is McAllister's base salary info from nflpa.org:

2006 1450000.00

2007 2600000.00

2008 3600000.00

2009 5200000.00

2010 6200000.00

2011 7100000.00

2012 8100000.00

I doubt McAllister's contract will stick after 2008, when he will be 30, and it's possible they could ask him to rework it after this season. I would expect him to be traded or cut, depending on how well he performs over the next two seasons (and how well Bush performs). Knowing that is coming, I'd expect the touches at RB to slowly shift more to Bush over the next two years.

As to McAllister's fantasy potential, consider this:

Games 1-8 (8 games): 111/487/5 rushing (4.4 ypc) and 17/109/0 (6.4 ypr) receiving on 21 targets = 89.6 fantasy points

Games 9-16 (7 games): 143/570/6 rushing (4.0 ypc) and 13/89/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving on 15 targets = 101.9 fantasy points

And then he followed that up with 208 total yards and 2 TDs in 2 playoff games against Philly and Chicago.

He definitely got stronger as the season went on, though I'm not sure there is more improvement to come in year 2 post injury as was suggested above. I think his improvement will be offset by a shift of touches towards Bush.

Last year, Deuce had 274 touches in 15 games, while Bush had only 243 in 16 (more like 15.25) games. I see that gap narrowing. I projected Bush for 265 touches in the Bush spotlight thread, and I'll go with 260 for Deuce.

240/1032/9 (4.3 ypc) rushing

20/136/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving

That is 171 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which would have ranked him as RB #22 last season.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Here is McAllister's base salary info from nflpa.org:2006 1450000.00 2007 2600000.00 2008 3600000.00 2009 5200000.00 2010 6200000.00 2011 7100000.00 2012 8100000.00 I doubt McAllister's contract will stick after 2008, when he will be 30, and it's possible they could ask him to rework it after this season. I would expect him to be traded or cut, depending on how well he performs over the next two seasons (and how well Bush performs). Knowing that is coming, I'd expect the touches at RB to slowly shift more to Bush over the next two years.As to McAllister's fantasy potential, consider this:Games 1-8 (8 games): 111/487/5 rushing (4.4 ypc) and 17/109/0 (6.4 ypr) receiving on 21 targets = 89.6 fantasy pointsGames 9-16 (7 games): 143/570/6 rushing (4.0 ypc) and 13/89/0 (6.8 ypr) receiving on 15 targets = 101.9 fantasy pointsAnd then he followed that up with 208 total yards and 2 TDs in 2 playoff games against Philly and Chicago.He definitely got stronger as the season went on, though I'm not sure there is more improvement to come in year 2 post injury as was suggested above. I think his improvement will be offset by a shift of touches towards Bush.Last year, Deuce had 274 touches in 15 games, while Bush had only 243 in 16 (more like 15.25) games. I see that gap narrowing. I projected Bush for 265 touches in the Bush spotlight thread, and I'll go with 260 for Deuce.240/1032/9 (4.3 ypc) rushing20/136/0 (6.8 ypr) receivingThat is 171 fantasy points (FBG scoring), which would have ranked him as RB #22 last season.
Click to expand...
One point is they did draft Pittman from OSU in the 4thr ound and I think they will use himeventually so that Bush remains in the 2 back system. Bush will get more carries against anyone that he shares the backfield with but I think Bush will top out at about 240 a year.OH yeah, this Deuce guy...I like the stats in the previous post a lot.240 carries, 1,050 yds rushing, 8TD20 receptions 160 yds, 0TD1200 total yds and 8 TD makes a decent RB2 and a better bye week filler.
 
More of the same from last year. Peyton will use him to grind out games and he should get about 15 attempts a game with a few big TD games. Probably not consistent enough to use as a RB2 but will ultimately put up RB2 #s. A GREAT RB3.

240 att, 1080 yds, 9 tds, 25 rec, 170 yds, 1 td

 
First year, Deuce sat behind Ricky - no wear and tear, only 16 carries.

2001

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

16 91 5.7 1 15 166 11.1 1

Second year Ricky gets traded, Deuce has a solid first year as starter.

2002 starts 15

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

325 1388 4.3 13 47 352 7.5 3

Third year Deuce looks like one of the top emerging dominant RBs in the league, ten consecutive 100 yard rushing games, incredibly consistent.

2003 16

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

351 1641 4.7 8 69 516 7.5 0

Fourth year he wasn't as dominant as he lost William Roaf and Kyle Turley up front and ended up missing two starts.

2004 14

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

269 1074 4.0 9 34 228 6.7 0

Fifth year, disaster. Katrina, playing on the road every week and then the knee injury.

2005 starts 5

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

93 335 3.6 3 17 117 6.9 0

Sixth year he was a year removed from his injury, the Saints drafted Reggie Bush and it turns out that Deuce responded well and both Reggie and Deuce coexhisted and complimented one another where Deuce would punch it in from the goal and get the tough carries between the tackles and in obvious running situations and he'd get carries to eat the clock. He also had his third highest reception totals of his career as well.

2006 starts 15

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

244 1057 4.3 10 30 198 6.6 0

Deuce is 29. He sat his first season and missed 11 games two years ago. He's had less than five and a half seasons of wear and tear on his body and wasn't beaten down last year. He's two years removed from his ACL injury, he's in a perfect role in a high powered offense where he doesn't have to carry the load. Deuce McAllister is a bread and butter plowhorse RB. He excells in the role and he'll continue to be the bread and butter plowhorse for the Saints in 2007 and beyond.

Deuce McAllister 2007 number projections:

250 carries for 1,200 yards

9 rushing TDs

30 receptions for 200 yards

1 receiving TD

Look for a solid 1,400 combined yards and double digit scores.

 
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Bracie Smathers said:
First year, Deuce sat behind Ricky - no wear and tear, only 16 carries.

2001

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

16 91 5.7 1 15 166 11.1 1

Second year Ricky gets traded, Deuce has a solid first year as starter.

2002 starts 15

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

325 1388 4.3 13 47 352 7.5 3

Third year Deuce looks like one of the top emerging dominant RBs in the league, ten consecutive 100 yard rushing games, incredibly consistent.

2003 16

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

351 1641 4.7 8 69 516 7.5 0

Fourth year he wasn't as dominant as he lost William Roaf and Kyle Turley up front and ended up missing two starts.

2004 14

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

269 1074 4.0 9 34 228 6.7 0

Fifth year, disaster. Katrina, playing on the road every week and then the knee injury.

2005 starts 5

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

93 335 3.6 3 17 117 6.9 0

Sixth year he was a year removed from his injury, the Saints drafted Reggie Bush and it turns out that Deuce responded well and both Reggie and Deuce coexhisted and complimented one another where Deuce would punch it in from the goal and get the tough carries between the tackles and in obvious running situations and he'd get carries to eat the clock. He also had his third highest reception totals of his career as well.

2006 starts 15

Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

244 1057 4.3 10 30 198 6.6 0

Deuce is 29. He sat his first season and missed 11 games two years ago. He's had less than five and a half seasons of wear and tear on his body and wasn't beaten down last year. He's two years removed from his ACL injury, he's in a perfect role in a high powered offense where he doesn't have to carry the load. Deuce McAllister is a bread and butter plowhorse RB. He excells in the role and he'll continue to be the bread and butter plowhorse for the Saints in 2007 and beyond.

Deuce McAllister 2007 number projections:

250 carries for 1,200 yards

9 rushing TDs

30 receptions for 200 yards

1 receiving TD

Look for a solid 1,400 combined yards and double digit scores.
Click to expand...
Can you justify projecting him at 4.8 ypc?
 
Just Win Baby said:
Can you justify projecting him at 4.8 ypc?
Click to expand...
He had 4.7 yards per carry the last time he was fully healthy in 2003 and had blocking. Last year was his first off of his ACL injury. Take a look at his yards per carry down the stretch of last year where he had FOUR of his FIVE 100 yard rushing games last season.12/3/2006 SF 26 136 5.2

12/10/2006 @Dal 21 111 5.3

12/17/2006 Was 15 48 3.2

12/24/2006 @NYG 027 108 4.0

1/13/2007 Phi 21 143 6.8

1/21/2007 @Chi 6 18 3.0

He got significatnly BETTER down the stretch of last year when he was getting healthier and hadn't been worn down during the year as much as he had been in the past. Is that acceptable as justification for projection a 4.8 yards per carry?

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Just Win Baby said:
Can you justify projecting him at 4.8 ypc?
Click to expand...
He had 4.7 yards per carry the last time he was fully healthy in 2003 and had blocking. Last year was his first off of his ACL injury. Take a look at his yards per carry down the stretch of last year where he had FOUR of his FIVE 100 yard rushing games last season.12/3/2006 SF 26 136 5.2

12/10/2006 @Dal 21 111 5.3

12/17/2006 Was 15 48 3.2

12/24/2006 @NYG 027 108 4.0

1/13/2007 Phi 21 143 6.8

1/21/2007 @Chi 6 18 3.0

He got significatnly BETTER down the stretch of last year when he was getting healthier and hadn't been worn down during the year as much as he had been in the past. Is that acceptable as justification for projection a 4.8 yards per carry?
Click to expand...
Not to me, it's not, for these reasons:1. You are projecting a career high. Here are his season ypc's from 2001 to 2006: 5.7 (16 carries), 4.3, 4.7, 4.0, 3.6, 4.3. His career ypc is 4.3. And not only are you projecting a career high, you are projecting something he has been close to in exactly one season, and that was 4 years ago.

2. Last season, only 5 RBs had 200 or more carries and a ypc of 4.8 or better: Gore, Tomlinson, Tiki, Westbrook, and Fred Taylor. Addai and Betts were close. No one else topped 4.5 ypc. Expand that to the last 5 seasons, and it has only been done 20 times total. It is very rare, and most backs who achieve it are more explosive than Deuce.

3. As for the sample size you chose (6 games), it is too small to be conclusive. For example, here are his 5 games before the stretch you cited:

8 BAL 5/11 = 2.2 ypc

9 TB 15/32 = 2.1 ypc

10 PIT 14/56 = 4.0 ypc

11 CIN 10/40 = 4.0 ypc

12 ATL 20/71 = 3.6 ypc

It's not that big of a deal. The difference between 4.8 and 4.3 ypc is about 125 yards on the 250 carries you are projecting. I just wondered if you could justify such optimism, and if this is all you've got we can agree to disagree on it.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Bracie Smathers said:
Just Win Baby said:
Can you justify projecting him at 4.8 ypc?
Click to expand...
He had 4.7 yards per carry the last time he was fully healthy in 2003 and had blocking. Last year was his first off of his ACL injury. Take a look at his yards per carry down the stretch of last year where he had FOUR of his FIVE 100 yard rushing games last season.12/3/2006 SF 26 136 5.2

12/10/2006 @Dal 21 111 5.3

12/17/2006 Was 15 48 3.2

12/24/2006 @NYG 027 108 4.0

1/13/2007 Phi 21 143 6.8

1/21/2007 @Chi 6 18 3.0

He got significatnly BETTER down the stretch of last year when he was getting healthier and hadn't been worn down during the year as much as he had been in the past. Is that acceptable as justification for projection a 4.8 yards per carry?
Click to expand...
Not to me, it's not, for these reasons:1. You are projecting a career high. Here are his season ypc's from 2001 to 2006: 5.7 (16 carries), 4.3, 4.7, 4.0, 3.6, 4.3. His career ypc is 4.3. And not only are you projecting a career high, you are projecting something he has been close to in exactly one season, and that was 4 years ago.

2. Last season, only 5 RBs had 200 or more carries and a ypc of 4.8 or better: Gore, Tomlinson, Tiki, Westbrook, and Fred Taylor. Addai and Betts were close. No one else topped 4.5 ypc. Expand that to the last 5 seasons, and it has only been done 20 times total. It is very rare, and most backs who achieve it are more explosive than Deuce.

3. As for the sample size you chose (6 games), it is too small to be conclusive. For example, here are his 5 games before the stretch you cited:

8 BAL 5/11 = 2.2 ypc

9 TB 15/32 = 2.1 ypc

10 PIT 14/56 = 4.0 ypc

11 CIN 10/40 = 4.0 ypc

12 ATL 20/71 = 3.6 ypc

It's not that big of a deal. The difference between 4.8 and 4.3 ypc is about 125 yards on the 250 carries you are projecting. I just wondered if you could justify such optimism, and if this is all you've got we can agree to disagree on it.
Click to expand...
I think you are right on the 4.8 yards per carry being too high but I knew if I were to increase McAllister's carry total to 300 as I feel he will get then others would question that. His total yardage projections are modest and reasonable considering how well he finished up down the stretch and if this were any other RB then people would take note of those last six games and discount the last one and then ponder the two year gap from an ACL injury and how this guy is still under thirty years old. So I'll gladly conceed the yards per carry but I think the total yardage is reasonable so I'd kick up the carry totals to where the division works out better. :2cents:
 
Bracie Smathers said:
Just Win Baby said:
Bracie Smathers said:
Just Win Baby said:
Can you justify projecting him at 4.8 ypc?
Click to expand...
He had 4.7 yards per carry the last time he was fully healthy in 2003 and had blocking. Last year was his first off of his ACL injury. Take a look at his yards per carry down the stretch of last year where he had FOUR of his FIVE 100 yard rushing games last season.12/3/2006 SF 26 136 5.2

12/10/2006 @Dal 21 111 5.3

12/17/2006 Was 15 48 3.2

12/24/2006 @NYG 027 108 4.0

1/13/2007 Phi 21 143 6.8

1/21/2007 @Chi 6 18 3.0

He got significatnly BETTER down the stretch of last year when he was getting healthier and hadn't been worn down during the year as much as he had been in the past. Is that acceptable as justification for projection a 4.8 yards per carry?
Click to expand...
Not to me, it's not, for these reasons:1. You are projecting a career high. Here are his season ypc's from 2001 to 2006: 5.7 (16 carries), 4.3, 4.7, 4.0, 3.6, 4.3. His career ypc is 4.3. And not only are you projecting a career high, you are projecting something he has been close to in exactly one season, and that was 4 years ago.

2. Last season, only 5 RBs had 200 or more carries and a ypc of 4.8 or better: Gore, Tomlinson, Tiki, Westbrook, and Fred Taylor. Addai and Betts were close. No one else topped 4.5 ypc. Expand that to the last 5 seasons, and it has only been done 20 times total. It is very rare, and most backs who achieve it are more explosive than Deuce.

3. As for the sample size you chose (6 games), it is too small to be conclusive. For example, here are his 5 games before the stretch you cited:

8 BAL 5/11 = 2.2 ypc

9 TB 15/32 = 2.1 ypc

10 PIT 14/56 = 4.0 ypc

11 CIN 10/40 = 4.0 ypc

12 ATL 20/71 = 3.6 ypc

It's not that big of a deal. The difference between 4.8 and 4.3 ypc is about 125 yards on the 250 carries you are projecting. I just wondered if you could justify such optimism, and if this is all you've got we can agree to disagree on it.
Click to expand...
I think you are right on the 4.8 yards per carry being too high but I knew if I were to increase McAllister's carry total to 300 as I feel he will get then others would question that. His total yardage projections are modest and reasonable considering how well he finished up down the stretch and if this were any other RB then people would take note of those last six games and discount the last one and then ponder the two year gap from an ACL injury and how this guy is still under thirty years old. So I'll gladly conceed the yards per carry but I think the total yardage is reasonable so I'd kick up the carry totals to where the division works out better. :2cents:
Click to expand...
This is exactly what I suspected you were really doing. IMO there is no chance he gets 300 carries unless Bush gets hurt. :hot:
 
Sure, Bush will eat into Deuce's numbers here and there. But the Saints utilize Deuce as the clock-milker late in games and quite prominently in the redzone. The fact that the Saints should be up late in games in 2007 equals a lot of clock-milking for him.

My projections:

235 carries for 985 yards (4.2 ypc) and 10 scores.

22 catches for 155 yards (7 ypr) and 0 scores.

 
I believe that Deuce McAllister will be a value play in 2007, principally based on the overall knowledge that Reggie Bush turned it on in the second half of 2006 and Reggie's role will be increased this year, as well as the fact that New Orleans is a passing offense. Neither of these suppositions are entirely true.

Deuce McAllister played in all sixteen games last season, less than a full year removed from knee surgery. His knee will definitely be stronger this year. Deuce is a team leader for the Saints and should continue his key role in the offense. His involvement actually increased in the latter stages of 2006. Let's look at the first ten games and the last five games of 2006 for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. I disregarded game 16 as Deuce did not play and Reggie's role was minimal.

First ten games in 06

Deuce McAllister 135 rushes for 583 yds (4.31 ypc) and 21 receptions for 140 yds & 6 TDs 15.6 touch/gm

Reggie Bush 104 rushes for 256 yds (2.46 ypc) and 61 receptions for 410 yds & 1 total TDs 16.5 touch/gm

Last five games in 06

Deuce McAllister 109 rushes for 474 yds (4.3 ypc) and 9 receptions for 58 yds 4 total TDs 23.6 touch/gm

Reggie Bush 48 rushes for 238 yds (4.9 ypc) and 25 receptions for 319 yds and 6 total TDs 14.8 touch/gm

Now for the passing statistics, in the first ten games they averaged 38.3 passes per game and had four with over 40 passes. In the last five games, they averaged 33 and had no games with more than 38 pass attempts. They switched their attack to favoring the run. I look for this to continue as the Saints should be improved on defense and have more of an opportunity to lean on their running game and defense.

Deuce McAllister 290 carries 1160 yards (4.0 ypc) 30 receptions for 200 yards and 10 total TDs

revised stats for games 11-15 due to math error pointed out below. stand with projections

 
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rzrback77 said:
I believe that Deuce McAllister will be a value play in 2007, principally based on the overall knowledge that Reggie Bush turned it on in the second half of 2006 and Reggie's role will be increased this year, as well as the fact that New Orleans is a passing offense. Neither of these suppositions are entirely true.Deuce McAllister played in all sixteen games last season, less than a full year removed from knee surgery. His knee will definitely be stronger this year. Deuce is a team leader for the Saints and should continue his key role in the offense. His involvement actually increased in the latter stages of 2006. Let's look at the first ten games and the last five games of 2006 for Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. I disregarded game 16 as Deuce did not play and Reggie's role was minimal.First ten games in 06Deuce McAllister 135 rushes for 583 yds (4.31 ypc) and 21 receptions for 140 yds & 6 TDs 15.6 touch/gmReggie Bush 104 rushes for 256 yds (2.46 ypc) and 61 receptions for 410 yds & 1 total TDs 16.5 touch/gmLast five games in 06 Deuce McAllister 130 rushes for 474 yds (3.65 ypc) and 9 receptions for 58 yds 4 total TDs 27.8 touch/gmReggie Bush 61 rushes for 238 yds (3.90 ypc) and 25 receptions for 319 yds and 6 total TDs 17.2 touch/gmNow for the passing statistics, in the first ten games they averaged 38.3 passes per game and had four with over 40 passes. In the last five games, they averaged 33 and had no games with more than 38 pass attempts. They switched their attack to favoring the run. I look for this to continue as the Saints should be improved on defense and have more of an opportunity to lean on their running game and defense.Deuce McAllister 290 carries 1160 yards (4.0 ypc) 30 receptions for 200 yards and 10 total TDs
Click to expand...
As I posted in the Bush thread, your carry and touch numbers are off for the last 5 games - weeks 12-16 (games 11-15) - of the regular season. Here are the numbers over that span (from the Data Dominator):Deuce - 109/474/4 rushing (4.35 ypc), 9/58/0 receiving (6.44 ypr) on 10 targets - 23.6 touches per gameBush - 48/238/4 rushing (4.96 ypc), 25/319/2 receiving (12.76 ypr) on 36 targets - 14.6 touches per gameAnd consider what they did with those touches. Bush had 557 total yards and 6 TDs over that 5 game span, better on both counts than Deuce's 532/4, despite the fact that Bush had so many fewer touches. IMO that is one of the reasons that the touches will shift a bit more towards Bush, as I posted earlier - Bush's late season performance earned him more touches this year.You are projecting Deuce for an increase in touches, and you also projected Bush for an increase. Between them, you are projecting 480 carries. Between them, they only ran 399 times last season. That is a massive 20% increase in rushing attempts.You point out as partial justification that the Saints favored the run more over those 5 games cited above. But look at the schedule and results:
Code: 
|   12   | at Atlanta Falcons			|	 W	|  31-13  ||   13   |	San Francisco 49ers		|	 W	|  34-10  ||   14   | at Dallas Cowboys			 |	 W	|  42-17  ||   15   |	Washington Redskins		|	 L	|  10-16  ||   16   | at New York Giants			|	 W	|  30- 7  |
4 blowouts among those 5 games. Really it should be no surprise that they ran a bit more. The average margin of victory of their first 10 games was 9.4 ppg. The average margin of these 5 was 19.2 ppg. Deuce had 15 carries against Washington and 94 in the other 4 games, with plenty of those coming in the 4th quarter of those games as the Saints ran to control and run out the clock.The Saints had the more offensive yards than any other team last season. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That is how I expect them to approach this season - some tweaks, sure, but a significant shift in focus (e.g., 20% more rushing) seems unlikely.
 
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