Player Spotlight: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers Options

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Steve Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

• For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Best of Luck and ENJOY!

[joffer]

still the best fantasy WR in the league

96/1425/10

[BassNBrew]

still the best fantasy WR in the league

96/1425/10

I can get on board with this plus something rushing stats.

96/1450/10 rec, 12/90/1 rush

[Jon_Moore]

The offense runs through him. They may preach running the ball more, and hell, they may run the ball more. Deangelo Williams is a great talent, and the overall passing numbers may go down, but he's just too good to not get the numbers.

Also, you've gotta think missing the playoffs puts a chip on a player like smith's shoulder. He's a superstar, and he has to feel like last year was a letdown. Monster year for one of the best

104 receptions
1518 yards
11 tds

[shadyridr]

When you look at his numbers closely hes only really had one dominant season. Last year you couldve called him a bust. After his injury he was basically a 10 point a weak guy. Before Delhomme got hurt he either had 100 yds and 0 tds or 50 yds and 1 td. Just didnt look like the same guy last year. Maybe the injury affected or maybe he was double covered too much. I would ignore his poor #s without Delhomme cuz if he gets hurt again they have a solid backup this year in David Carr. Anyway, if the injury affected him I expect a huge rebound this year to stud status. If it was the double teams then losing Keyshawn and replacing him with basically nobody will hurt quite a bit. Ill say he doesnt regain stud status from 2 years ago but will put up WR1 #s.

90 rec, 1320 yds, 11 tds, 80 rush yds, 1 tds

[Chunky Soup]

When you look at his numbers closely hes only really had one dominant season. Last year you couldve called him a bust. After his injury he was basically a 10 point a weak guy.

FWIW: Smith avg 12.6 points per game after injury, non-PPR. PPR he avg 18.6. He was good for #8 non-ppr even with just 14 games. On a points-per-game basis, he was only #2 behind Harrison. He wasn't just a "10 point a weak guy." This is even considering an offense in shambles, including a week where DeAngelo Williams played QB.

Two seasons ago he was #1. Last year #2 in points-per-game, even when CAR offense was in shambles. I'd predict big things for him again.

97 / 1420 / 10

This post has been edited by DocT: May 29 2007, 07:39 AM

[Dhizz]

This is 2004 all over.

Keyshawn is gone, they have 1 real WR, and Delhomme is going to work him the ball A LOT.

I'm not sure if it's Fox, Delhomme, or the offense, but they produce #1 FF WRs. (2 of the last 3 years?)

90, 1400, 13.

[H.K.]

I expect Smith to lead the league in targets.

95 rec
1400 yds
10 TD

[rzrback77]

Steve Smith has been spectacular over the last two seasons and three out of the last four. Disregarding his 04 season when he was injured early and missed the whole season, he has posted the following:

03 - 16 gms 141 targets 88 receptions 1110 yards and 7 TDs 29% of Carolina receiving yards
05 - 16 gms 150 targets 103 receptions 1563 yards and 12 TDs 45% of Carolina receiving yards
06 - 14 gms 140 targets 83 receptions 1166 yards and 8 TDs 33% of Carolina receiving yards

With Carolina having a rather poor offensive showing in 06, I don't see that they will fall back in 07. Their offensive line had major injury troubles and their QB was very inconsistent. Both should improve in 07 and Steve Smith will definitely be the focus of the passing game as he has been for the past two seasons. With the loss of Keyshawn, Drew Carter and/or Dwayne Jarrett will be the fall-back options after Smith, so it stands to reason that his targets will not decrease, but could in fact increase.

Steve Smith 165 targets 105 receptions 1500 yards and 11 TDs

[Sigmund Bloom]

Any worries about Steve if the Panthers decide to switch from Delhomme to Carr midseason?

[BassNBrew]

Any worries about Steve if the Panthers decide to switch from Delhomme to Carr midseason?

2006 HOU 165 targets 103 recpt 1147 yd 11.1 avg 5 td

None here as Carr may be a clone in terms of locking on to one WR. Given Smith's superior talent/skills, I think he would have turned those targets and recpts into significantly better results.

[Sigmund Bloom]

Any worries about Steve if the Panthers decide to switch from Delhomme to Carr midseason?

2006 HOU 165 targets 103 recpt 1147 yd 11.1 avg 5 td

None here as Carr may be a clone in terms of locking on to one WR. Given Smith's superior talent/skills, I think he would have turned those targets and recpts into significantly better results.

I agree with the idea that Carr would be just as comfortable locking on to Smith as Delhomme is, but I wonder if Carr has the courage to hang in long enough to allow Smith to get behind the defense - of course if that's the case, then I don't think they would stick with Carr for long. I don't think Andre's YPC has as much to with lesser talent (although he's not the YAC threat Smith is - but then again who is) as it does with Carr's penchant for bailing out early.

[BassNBrew]

Any worries about Steve if the Panthers decide to switch from Delhomme to Carr midseason?

2006 HOU 165 targets 103 recpt 1147 yd 11.1 avg 5 td

None here as Carr may be a clone in terms of locking on to one WR. Given Smith's superior talent/skills, I think he would have turned those targets and recpts into significantly better results.

I agree with the idea that Carr would be just as comfortable locking on to Smith as Delhomme is, but I wonder if Carr has the courage to hang in long enough to allow Smith to get behind the defense - of course if that's the case, then I don't think they would stick with Carr for long. I don't think Andre's YPC has as much to with lesser talent (although he's not the YAC threat Smith is - but then again who is) as it does with Carr's penchant for bailing out early.

I'd bail out early after getting buried by 300 men on a frequent basis. Carolina's OL while being attrocious at run blocking actually is a good pass blocking unit. I think Carr could perform quite well in this situation. I'm not saying that he's better than Jake, but he'd wouldn't be a drop off from Smith's perspecitve.

[FTRWRTR]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

This post has been edited by FTRWRTR: May 30 2007, 01:47 PM

[salmonstud]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

It often takes 2-3 years for a WR to develop. T.O. didn't put up monster stats his first few years in the league. If you look from year 3 on for Smith....he has been solid, excluding his major injury in 2004. Smith is far from injury prone. If you scratch off 2004.....he has played in 76 of 80 games for his career.

2003 - 88, 1110, 7 td's
2004 - injured
2005 - 103, 1563, 13 td's (12 receiving, 1 rush)
2006 - 83, 1166, 9 td's (8 receiving, 1 rush)


2007 - 100, 1350, 12 td's (11 receiving, 1 rushing)

[The Jacket]

89 rec, 1250 yards, 8 TD.

[shadyridr]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

Exactly what I said in my post. He is definately a WR1 but people expecting him to put up #s similar to 2005 are crazy. And alot of people in this thread are projecting him with those #s. 2005 was the arbiration. 2006 & 2003 are probably the norm.

[BassNBrew]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

Fair enough to project an injury. It might be helpful to list the number of games because on a ppg basis he'll still be above where your numbers place him on a yearly basis.

Clarifying a few other items. Smith came into the league as a special teams guys and developed into the best or second best WR in the league. You can't hold working your way up a depth chart against someone. The other "targets" are a no issue. The new OC has committed to finding ways to get Smith the ball. Simply put, you don't ignore the most explosive WR talent in the league to focus on Foster and D-Will.

[salmonstud]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

Exactly what I said in my post. He is definately a WR1 but people expecting him to put up #s similar to 2005 are crazy. And alot of people in this thread are projecting him with those #s. 2005 was the arbiration. 2006 & 2003 are probably the norm.

2006 wouldn't be bad. In PPR leagues....Smith finished 7th at the WR position....and he missed a few games. I would say that top 7 is a bit better than "just WR1 numbers". If he plays 16 games....you are looking at top 5 numbers.

[BassNBrew]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

Exactly what I said in my post. He is definately a WR1 but people expecting him to put up #s similar to 2005 are crazy. And alot of people in this thread are projecting him with those #s. 2005 was the arbiration. 2006 & 2003 are probably the norm.

12.62 ppg last year was good for #2 overall and includes a game with DeAngelo Williams playing QB.

[simey]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs.

Smith wasn't a starting WR his rookie (2001) season. He was their kickoff and punt returner, and the only rookie to go to the probowl. In 2002, he became a starter at WR opposite Moose, and the only game I recall him missing is the one he got suspended for. In 2003, his breakout season, I don't recall him missing any games. In 2004 he broke his leg in the first game, and missed the whole season. In 2005 he missed no games. In 2006 he missed the first two games due to a hamstring injury, and none after that. He still managed to have good stats, and more than likely would have had even better stats if Weinke wasn't QB for some games last season.

[FTRWRTR]

You guys can see things how you want but like shadyridr I look at smith's three best years and say what he did in two of those three years is a much better gauge of what you can espect from him than what he did in what is so far his best season. IMO that's like saying jamal lewis will rush for 1,500 yards and as proof you point out that he once had a 2,000 yard season

[BassNBrew]

You guys can see things how you want but like shadyridr I look at smith's three best years and say what he did in two of those three years is a much better gauge of what you can espect from him than what he did in what is so far his best season. IMO that's like saying jamal lewis will rush for 1,500 yards and as proof you point out that he once had a 2,000 yard season

I guess you missed the boat on TO.

Of course Marvin was to frail to become a top WR.

And of course all Chris Carter did was catch touchdowns.

[Dhizz]

You guys can see things how you want but like shadyridr I look at smith's three best years and say what he did in two of those three years is a much better gauge of what you can espect from him than what he did in what is so far his best season. IMO that's like saying jamal lewis will rush for 1,500 yards and as proof you point out that he once had a 2,000 yard season

You're acting like his other years were way below his career year.

Last year he was a top 3 WR in PPG. (in my league #2 PPG WR)

He had a hammy injury, missed some time, and was still a top 10 WR (and top 3 PPG).

[shadyridr]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

Exactly what I said in my post. He is definately a WR1 but people expecting him to put up #s similar to 2005 are crazy. And alot of people in this thread are projecting him with those #s. 2005 was the arbiration. 2006 & 2003 are probably the norm.

12.62 ppg last year was good for #2 overall and includes a game with DeAngelo Williams playing QB.

He can still finish at #1 this year Im not arguing that. He is an awesome WR. But to project him at 100 catches, 1500 yds and 12+ TDs like many in this thread are doing is a bit ridiculous no? Hes only had 1 year like that.

[BassNBrew]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

Exactly what I said in my post. He is definately a WR1 but people expecting him to put up #s similar to 2005 are crazy. And alot of people in this thread are projecting him with those #s. 2005 was the arbiration. 2006 & 2003 are probably the norm.

12.62 ppg last year was good for #2 overall and includes a game with DeAngelo Williams playing QB.

He can still finish at #1 this year Im not arguing that. He is an awesome WR. But to project him at 100 catches, 1500 yds and 12+ TDs like many in this thread are doing is a bit ridiculous no? Hes only had 1 year like that.

90 rec, 1320 yds, 11 tds, 80 rush yds, 1 tds

Ridiculous = 12% higher projection that what you made at 2 of 3 categories and 0% at the other???

[Dhizz]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

Exactly what I said in my post. He is definately a WR1 but people expecting him to put up #s similar to 2005 are crazy. And alot of people in this thread are projecting him with those #s. 2005 was the arbiration. 2006 & 2003 are probably the norm.

12.62 ppg last year was good for #2 overall and includes a game with DeAngelo Williams playing QB.

He can still finish at #1 this year Im not arguing that. He is an awesome WR. But to project him at 100 catches, 1500 yds and 12+ TDs like many in this thread are doing is a bit ridiculous no? Hes only had 1 year like that.

You lack the basic understand of simple english words.

Words like "many".

In fact, one person projected him to 100+, 1500+, 12+.

So replace "many" with "one homer guy from South Carolina".

So you basically got all worked up over 1 guy projecting him to have a career year? Most people are projecting far less. Sorry let me correct that; MANY people are projecting far less.

So before you read one set of projections and freak out, you should take in the other posts before lumping them all in "OMG 99% OF FBG IS PROJECTING SS TO DOMINATESSSSSSSSSSSS".

[shadyridr]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

Exactly what I said in my post. He is definately a WR1 but people expecting him to put up #s similar to 2005 are crazy. And alot of people in this thread are projecting him with those #s. 2005 was the arbiration. 2006 & 2003 are probably the norm.

12.62 ppg last year was good for #2 overall and includes a game with DeAngelo Williams playing QB.

He can still finish at #1 this year Im not arguing that. He is an awesome WR. But to project him at 100 catches, 1500 yds and 12+ TDs like many in this thread are doing is a bit ridiculous no? Hes only had 1 year like that.

You lack the basic understand of simple english words.

Words like "many".

In fact, one person projected him to 100+, 1500+, 12+.

So replace "many" with "one homer guy from South Carolina".

So you basically got all worked up over 1 guy projecting him to have a career year? Most people are projecting far less. Sorry let me correct that; MANY people are projecting far less.

So before you read one set of projections and freak out, you should take in the other posts before lumping them all in "OMG 99% OF FBG IS PROJECTING SS TO DOMINATESSSSSSSSSSSS".

So I guess you are gonna completely ignore the 1st 3 posters who project him at 96 receptions and 1450 yards receiving.

[shadyridr]

I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs

Exactly what I said in my post. He is definately a WR1 but people expecting him to put up #s similar to 2005 are crazy. And alot of people in this thread are projecting him with those #s. 2005 was the arbiration. 2006 & 2003 are probably the norm.

12.62 ppg last year was good for #2 overall and includes a game with DeAngelo Williams playing QB.

He can still finish at #1 this year Im not arguing that. He is an awesome WR. But to project him at 100 catches, 1500 yds and 12+ TDs like many in this thread are doing is a bit ridiculous no? Hes only had 1 year like that.

90 rec, 1320 yds, 11 tds, 80 rush yds, 1 tds

Ridiculous = 12% higher projection that what you made at 2 of 3 categories and 0% at the other???

Yep thats 12% higher projections than my projection which would make him probably the 1st or 2nd WR. So many are saying he will be 12% better than any WR?

[PsychoMan]

rec: 93, 1398, 13
rush: 10, 77, 1

[SayWhat?]

[quote name='shadyridr' post='6821077' date='May 31 2007, 08:12 AM'][quote name='BassNBrew' post='6819945' date='May 30 2007, 09:22 PM']
[quote name='shadyridr' post='6819797' date='May 30 2007, 08:39 PM']
[quote name='BassNBrew' post='6818682' date='May 30 2007, 04:44 PM']
[quote name='shadyridr' post='6818632' date='May 30 2007, 04:38 PM']
[quote name='FTRWRTR' post='6818245' date='May 30 2007, 03:43 PM']
I've been in the minority about steve smith on this and other ff sites, but look at the stats. In six years as a pro he's only started a full season once and that was also the only year he had over 1,166 yards or more than eight TDs. Yes, he racked up an incredible 1,563 yards and 12 TDs when he did start all 16 games but he also had a career high 103 catches and was pretty much the only person Carolina threw to. With additional targets for delhomme to pass to in d-will, foster, and jarrett plus considering smith's history I project:

85 catches for 1,147 yards(13.5 ypc) and 7 TDs[/quote]
Exactly what I said in my post. He is definately a WR1 but people expecting him to put up #s similar to 2005 are crazy. And alot of people in this thread are projecting him with those #s. 2005 was the arbiration. 2006 & 2003 are probably the norm.
[/quote]

12.62 ppg last year was good for #2 overall and includes a game with DeAngelo Williams playing QB.
[/quote]
He can still finish at #1 this year Im not arguing that. He is an awesome WR. But to project him at 100 catches, 1500 yds and 12+ TDs like many in this thread are doing is a bit ridiculous no? Hes only had 1 year like that.
[/quote]

90 rec, 1320 yds, 11 tds, 80 rush yds, 1 tds

Ridiculous = 12% higher projection that what you made at 2 of 3 categories and 0% at the other???
[/quote]
Yep thats 12% higher projections than my projection which would make him probably the 1st or 2nd WR. So many are saying he will be 12% better than any WR?
[/quote]


Extrapolating Smith's stats over 16 games last year would've given him 95-1332-9. So why exactly are you overreacting to projections of 96 receptions and 1450 yards?

This post has been edited by SayWhat?: May 31 2007, 09:53 AM

[ImTheScientist]

Smith should be in for a great year. He has a very nice schedule, and will again be the focus on offense.

Sep 9 @St. Louis 1:00pm
Sep 16 Houston 1:00pm
Sep 23 @Atlanta 4:15pm
Sep 30 Tampa Bay 4:05pm
Oct 7 @New Orleans 1:00pm
Oct 14 @Arizona 4:05pm
Week 7 BYE
Oct 28 Indianapolis 1:00pm
Nov 4 @Tennessee 1:00pm
Nov 11 Atlanta 1:00pm
Nov 18 @Green Bay 1:00pm
Nov 25 New Orleans 1:00pm
Dec 2 San Francisco 1:00pm
Dec 9 @Jacksonville 1:00pm
Dec 16 Seattle 1:00pm
Dec 22 Dallas 8:15pm
Dec 30 @Tampa Bay 1:00pm (most leagues do not play week 17)

IMO he should be the first WR off the board and should be selected 1.12-2.3

Steve Smith:
90 Rec
1350 yards
12 TDs

[Ted Lange as you...]

I have him at 88/1290/8, although it would be nice for him to show up in a week 16 championship game one of these years. He was horrible that week in both '05 and '06. Obviously a coincedence, but still...