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Player Spotlight: Marshawn Lynch (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Marshawn Lynch Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
I think Anthony Thomas will get plenty of work in the 1st half of the season. Thomas is a good NFL RB and I never understood why he didnt get more love from NFL teams. Every time he comes in as a backup to replace and injured starter he seems to produce. Plus Im gonna assume Thomas gets the goalline TDs. That being said they didnt draft Lynch for nothing. They will slowly shift more and more carries to him as the season goes on. Whether he produces with them is another issue. Im not crazy about this offensive line. One plus is Lynch should be a factor in the passing game. As far as the 2 main rookie RBs I like Peterson better in the long run obviously but I also like Peterson better this year as well.

200 att, 800 yds, 6 tds, 40 rec, 350 yds, 1 td

 
I think it is fair to assume Lynch can average t least 90 yards per game over the season.

I also think he can average a TD every 2 games as the full time back.

1440 yards and 8 TD's

48 catches 230 yards

 
Let's pretend for a sec the BUF O is really great and he's considered the next coming of (pick extremely good RB).How often do rook RBs run for 1400+? Right.It's possible but I really doubt it. I think he's good but not that good, at least not right off.
 
Now I don't see him putting up that big of numbers but I don't see how you can say no chance. As we all know, I'm a huge fan of Peterson but I think it's pretty safe to say Lynch is in the best situation to put up the best numbers out of this rookie class. The reason I don't see his numbers quite that high is I think Jauron loves A-Train and will give him some carries despite not being as talented as Lynch. But if Lynch were to get a little more than 300 carries then I can see those rushing numbers. I can see him getting only about 200 carries, but still putting up good rushing stats. I think you got the TD #'s correct, 8 sounds good. And even though Lynch is much better out of the backfield than Willis, I can't see him grabbing close to 50 catches. I'm thinking more like 30-35.
 
Signs point to the Bills being a run first team. The Bills moves this offseason in concentrating on rebuilding a poor O line thru free agency and drafting a RB with there first pick makes me think they will use Lynch alot. He may not get the goaline carries and that's reflected in my projection.

220 carries 950 yds, 5 TDs

35 rec. 325 yds, 2 TDs

1275 total yds with 7 TDs, a nice rookie season.

 
Signs point to the Bills being a run first team. The Bills moves this offseason in concentrating on rebuilding a poor O line thru free agency and drafting a RB with there first pick makes me think they will use Lynch alot. He may not get the goaline carries and that's reflected in my projection.220 carries 950 yds, 5 TDs35 rec. 325 yds, 2 TDs1275 total yds with 7 TDs, a nice rookie season.
I will probably take McGay's numbers from last season (projected for a full 16 games) and multiply them by somewhere between .7 and .8 to project what I think. I might add a few more receptions and recieving yards.low end 188 carries 792 yards 5 TDhigh end 215 carries 905 yards 6TD
 
I think it is fair to assume Lynch can average t least 90 yards per game over the season.I also think he can average a TD every 2 games as the full time back.1440 yards and 8 TD's48 catches 230 yards
Why is that "Fair to assume"? Is Lynch an elite talent? Is Buffalo's line that improved over last year when McGahee (who most would be consider much more talented than Lynch) struggled?I have a very difficult time buying these numbers.
 
Aaron Rodgers. Kyle Boller. JJ Arrington. Marshawn Lynch.

190 carries, 600 yards

25 catches, 170 yards

3 TD

 
Even if Lynch were lucky enough to garner 300 carries he would still have to improve his YPC by a full yard over McGahee's to reach the 1440 yards predicted above. Given that I think McGahee is a better RB than Lynch I find that pretty unlikely.

Also, A-train will play a larger role here than many expect.

200 carries for 765yds with 4TDs rushing.

30 catches for another 220 yards receiving.

 
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Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:

1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question.

1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.

 
Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.
Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?
 
Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.
Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?
I couldn't decide which silly comment I was gonna reply to. :o But I wouldn't say Buffalo's offense is one of the worst in the league. They were better last year than N.O. were the year before. Before last year N.O. had a very bad offense.
 
Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.
Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?
KC & SF were not in the top 10 in offense, yet Larry Johnson & Frank Gore seemed to do alright.
 
Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.
Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?
KC & SF were not in the top 10 in offense, yet Larry Johnson & Frank Gore seemed to do alright.
Hey Salmon, who would you draft ahead of Lynch. With the numbers your talking probably just LT, SJ, and LJ? :lmao:
 
Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.
Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?
KC & SF were not in the top 10 in offense, yet Larry Johnson & Frank Gore seemed to do alright.
Hey Salmon, who would you draft ahead of Lynch. With the numbers your talking probably just LT, SJ, and LJ? :bag:
13 backs rushed for more than 1150 yards in 2006. In basic scoring format - Non-PPR leagues - 11 backs had more fantasy points than 196 which is what my prediction would equate to. In hindsight....my numbers are a tad high. I guess I'm just an overly optimisitc Lynch owner. Ok.........1250 combined yards & 8 TD's. Should put him in the top 15. I think it's very possible.
 
Just my opinion, but I think Lynch >>> Thomas, and I don't understand why so many feel he'll be sharing carries just because he is a rookie.

The Bills drafted him twelvth overall and if they planned on using him as a platoon player, then that was quite a reach. They could have gotten a compliment to Thomas in the third round or later.

Don't downgrade his carries just because he is a rook. Maybe his receptions; he might not be in on passing downs, but as the old addage says, RB is the easiest position to adjust to in the pros.

Me Marshawn Lynch

Me get football

Me run football...

That being said, I'll go with...

305 carries

1138 yards rushing

8 rushing TD

40 receptions

280 yards receiving

1 receiving TD.

 
Just my opinion, but I think Lynch >>> Thomas, and I don't understand why so many feel he'll be sharing carries just because he is a rookie.The Bills drafted him twelvth overall and if they planned on using him as a platoon player, then that was quite a reach. They could have gotten a compliment to Thomas in the third round or later.Don't downgrade his carries just because he is a rook. Maybe his receptions; he might not be in on passing downs, but as the old addage says, RB is the easiest position to adjust to in the pros.Me Marshawn LynchMe get footballMe run football...That being said, I'll go with...305 carries1138 yards rushing8 rushing TD40 receptions280 yards receiving1 receiving TD.
The reason we say Thomas wll get carries is because Jauron has said so. Jauron Likes Thomas. Brought him into Buffalo because he liked him from thier Chicago days. There were people here in Buffalo screaming Thomas should have gotton more carries over Willis. So they might say the same for Lynch.
 
Looks like I won't be getting my hands on Lynch in any redraft drafts this year with these inflated projections.

 
Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.
Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?
I couldn't decide which silly comment I was gonna reply to. ;) But I wouldn't say Buffalo's offense is one of the worst in the league. They were better last year than N.O. were the year before. Before last year N.O. had a very bad offense.
New Orleans brought in an offensive minded coach, a high dollar FA QB, one of the best RB prospects in a decade, and returned their other pro bowl RB who had missed most of the prior season. Buffalo brought in some linemen that they hope and pray will at least be mediocre. Hardly comparable.
 
Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.
Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?
I couldn't decide which silly comment I was gonna reply to. ;) But I wouldn't say Buffalo's offense is one of the worst in the league. They were better last year than N.O. were the year before. Before last year N.O. had a very bad offense.
New Orleans brought in an offensive minded coach, a high dollar FA QB, one of the best RB prospects in a decade, and returned their other pro bowl RB who had missed most of the prior season. Buffalo brought in some linemen that they hope and pray will at least be mediocre. Hardly comparable.
 
Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.
Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?
KC & SF were not in the top 10 in offense, yet Larry Johnson & Frank Gore seemed to do alright.
Neither Johnson nor Gore were rookies that were sharing carries, which seemed to be the analogy you were drawing.
 
Reggie Bush racked up 1300 combined yards sharing with Deuce & Addai had 1400 combined yards sharing with Rhodes. Lynch has less competition coming in as a rookie than Addai & Bush. I don't see why:1150 yards rushing, 275 yards receiving isn't out of the question. 1425 combined yards & 9 TD's.
Because Indy and N.O. are the two best offenses in the NFL while Bufaflo is one of the worst?
KC & SF were not in the top 10 in offense, yet Larry Johnson & Frank Gore seemed to do alright.
Some lofty comparisons there. I'll take the under.
 
Thomas is more washed up than a box of Tide. Lynch starts from day 1.
Couldn't agree more.Last season he ran for an eye-popping 378 yards at an avg of 3.5 ypc. That being with him starting two games and playing three + quarters of a third while McGahee was injured.In the other 13 games McGahee was healthy, Thomas averaged three attempts a game. Maybe they were saving him for this season...Anyways, I don't believe the Bills went out, traded McGahee and drafted Lynch with the intentions of him being a complimentary player.If Lynch is the workhorse, which my opinion is he will be, 300 carries is not out of the question. I liken the Thomas argument to someone who would have made the case to lessen expectations of Caddy his rokkie season because of Pittman.Thomas has not rushed for over 400 yards or had better than a 3.5 ypc in the last three years. Things are not headed up for him.I'm actually higher on Lynch than Peterson for redraft. I truly believe that threat of Chester Taylor splitting time wth AD is a lot dicier than that Thomas and Lynch.
 
I think the positive language related to A Train could be more coachspeak and respecting a veteran than it is a forcast of shared carries. A coach has nothing to lose in praising his vets, but lots to lose if he trashes them before the rookies prove themselves. We've seen Thomas' ceiling, while Lynch will have every opportunity to come into Buffalo and be the man.

235/986/8

39 grabs for 310 yards and 1 TD

 
275 attempts, 1100 yards, 25 receptions, 200 yards...8 total TD's

If Lynch comes out and shows something in the exhibition season I could see his receiving numbers exceeding what Willis McGahee put up in Buffalo (and I projected above)

 
Just my opinion, but I think Lynch >>> Thomas, and I don't understand why so many feel he'll be sharing carries just because he is a rookie.The Bills drafted him twelvth overall and if they planned on using him as a platoon player, then that was quite a reach. They could have gotten a compliment to Thomas in the third round or later.Don't downgrade his carries just because he is a rook. Maybe his receptions; he might not be in on passing downs, but as the old addage says, RB is the easiest position to adjust to in the pros.Me Marshawn LynchMe get footballMe run football...That being said, I'll go with...305 carries1138 yards rushing8 rushing TD40 receptions280 yards receiving1 receiving TD.
The reason we say Thomas wll get carries is because Jauron has said so. Jauron Likes Thomas. Brought him into Buffalo because he liked him from thier Chicago days. There were people here in Buffalo screaming Thomas should have gotton more carries over Willis. So they might say the same for Lynch.
The Bills like Atrain so much they gave him a vet min contract for 1 year and drafted, not 1, but 2 backs to take his place.
 
Aaron Rodgers. Kyle Boller. JJ Arrington. Marshawn Lynch.190 carries, 600 yards25 catches, 170 yards3 TD
Good to know Stanford still has at least one fan. It'll be a little sad when everyone in your brand new stadium is wearing blue and gold for the Big Game. A little.
 
CalBear said:
Block said:
Aaron Rodgers. Kyle Boller. JJ Arrington. Marshawn Lynch.190 carries, 600 yards25 catches, 170 yards3 TD
Good to know Stanford still has at least one fan. It'll be a little sad when everyone in your brand new stadium is wearing blue and gold for the Big Game. A little.
I don't care about Stanford. I just think the Cal offense inflates the value of its players. I can't remember the last time a RB, WR, or QB from Cal played to expectations after being drafted high.
 
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Obie Wan said:
Mr. Peterson said:
JimboJim said:
Just my opinion, but I think Lynch >>> Thomas, and I don't understand why so many feel he'll be sharing carries just because he is a rookie.The Bills drafted him twelvth overall and if they planned on using him as a platoon player, then that was quite a reach. They could have gotten a compliment to Thomas in the third round or later.Don't downgrade his carries just because he is a rook. Maybe his receptions; he might not be in on passing downs, but as the old addage says, RB is the easiest position to adjust to in the pros.Me Marshawn LynchMe get footballMe run football...That being said, I'll go with...305 carries1138 yards rushing8 rushing TD40 receptions280 yards receiving1 receiving TD.
The reason we say Thomas wll get carries is because Jauron has said so. Jauron Likes Thomas. Brought him into Buffalo because he liked him from thier Chicago days. There were people here in Buffalo screaming Thomas should have gotton more carries over Willis. So they might say the same for Lynch.
The Bills like Atrain so much they gave him a vet min contract for 1 year and drafted, not 1, but 2 backs to take his place.
:excited: Doesn't exactly spell manlove for a player now does it?!
 
210/840/6 rushing

32/300/1 receiving

But next year he'll be top 10.

 
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it just may be me, but it seems every RB coming out of the pac 10 lately is overrated. they can run for 1900 yards, then average 3 yards per carry in the pros. and yes i'm including bush's awesome 3.6 average. it may be a bit unfair to suggest lynch is also overrated just because he's from the same conference. but, given that, and the bills offense, i expect modest numbers this year.

159 575 3.6 5 and 30 225 7.5 1

 
The Bills like Atrain so much they gave him a vet min contract for 1 year and drafted, not 1, but 2 backs to take his place.
:D drafted lynch with the 2nd pick in a dynasty and was immediately was offered ATrain, turned the deal down and dealt for brandon wright. as for projections:250/1040 yds 8 tds25/300 yds 2 tds
 
Lynch is my sleeper for the draft of 2007. I won't go as far as to give outrageous projections, but I think he will be solid in there. He couldn't have landed on a team any hungrier for a young RB to carry the load. As a Losman owner, I'm a bit curious about his pass catching skills. If anyone watched him alot in college and is "in the know" please discuss.

 
I've been a fan of Lynch as an NFL prospect for the last few years, and think he'll surprise people by outperforming McGahee in virtually every metric. The Bills defense is a major question mark, so I wonder if he'll get the carries on a week to week basis needed for a true stud season, but I can easily see him finishing in the top 15 if not higher, as long as the Bills passing offense isn't a complete wash out.

 
CalBear said:
Block said:
Aaron Rodgers. Kyle Boller. JJ Arrington. Marshawn Lynch.190 carries, 600 yards25 catches, 170 yards3 TD
Good to know Stanford still has at least one fan. It'll be a little sad when everyone in your brand new stadium is wearing blue and gold for the Big Game. A little.
I don't care about Stanford. I just think the Cal offense inflates the value of its players. I can't remember the last time a RB, WR, or QB from Cal played to expectations after being drafted high.
Yeah, and that Larry Johnson guy will never do well because he's a RB from Penn State.The color of the helmet really has no bearing on the potential performance of an individual player. And don't you think it's a little silly to be saying Aaron Rodgers hasn't played to expectations, given that he's still sitting behind Brett Favre? No one is going to start in Green Bay while Favre is still around. Lynch is a completely different runner than Arrington and was much more impressive in college. There is no relation between the two other than the uniform they wore. And to even bring the QBs into the question is absurd.A detailed analysis is to follow, but I couldn't let this pass.
 
Lynch is my sleeper for the draft of 2007. I won't go as far as to give outrageous projections, but I think he will be solid in there. He couldn't have landed on a team any hungrier for a young RB to carry the load. As a Losman owner, I'm a bit curious about his pass catching skills. If anyone watched him alot in college and is "in the know" please discuss.
Lynch is a very good pass catcher and sometimes would be split out as a WR.
 
The Bills like Atrain so much they gave him a vet min contract for 1 year and drafted, not 1, but 2 backs to take his place.
:fishing: drafted lynch with the 2nd pick in a dynasty and was immediately was offered ATrain, turned the deal down and dealt for brandon wright. as for projections:250/1040 yds 8 tds25/300 yds 2 tds
I would agree with about 1350-1400 total yards and 10 TDs.Lynch is a huge upgrade in the passing game from Willis.TDs may be high if Wright becomes the short yardage back.
 
Lynch is the classic case of a good RB in a bad situation. I think he should expect less than 300 carries this year and a somewhat subpar ypc average due to his surrounding talent. There is just not much you can do when you are in the middle of your team's rebuilding efforts.

I give him 275/1100/6, 25/200/0

I think there is better value at RB#2/#3 than Lynch provides this year. I wouldn't mind having him on my team though. Anthony Thomas is not even going to sniff the field while this guy is healthy btw.

 

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