Player Spotlight: Tony Gonzalez (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood · Jun 4, 2007

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tony Gonzalez, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Tony Gonzalez Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

DenverBroncos · Jun 4, 2007

75 receptions, 900 yards, 5 TD's

shadyridr · Jun 4, 2007

I dont think youll ever see Gonzalez put up the HOF #s he put up in the past again. 1) Hes getting older 2) KCs oline is declining meaning he will have to stay in more to block 3) KCs QB situation is iffy 4) Herm Edwards, Ill never trust this guy for fantasy passing #s 5) Nobody to take away coverage from him in the red zone 6) LJ gets a ton of red zone touches. All that being said he is still a stud TE but more in the 2nd to 4th TE off the board range (probably 4th).

75 rec, 900 yds, 5 tds

Snotbubbles · Jun 4, 2007

I dont think youll ever see Gonzalez put up the HOF #s he put up in the past again. 1) Hes getting older 2) KCs oline is declining meaning he will have to stay in more to block 3) KCs QB situation is iffy 4) Herm Edwards, Ill never trust this guy for fantasy passing #s 5) Nobody to take away coverage from him in the red zone 6) LJ gets a ton of red zone touches. All that being said he is still a stud TE but more in the 2nd to 4th TE off the board range (probably 4th).

75 rec, 900 yds, 5 tds

Gonzalez's averages with **** Vermeil as HC (2001-2005): 77-954-6Gonzalez's with Herm as HC: 73-900-5 Not sure why you: 1. Say that he won't put up the HOF #s unless your referring to the 2 years (out of 10) that he's gone over 1000 yards and 2. Why you bash Herm Edwards (it must be the "in" thing to do)With Vermeil the offenses were ranked: 16, 1, 1, 2, 6 in points and 4, 5, 2, 1, 1 in yards, yet Gonzo did no better in that offense then last year when Gonzo had Damon Huard for half a season and a post-concussion Trent Green.

BigRed · Jun 4, 2007

What he said.

But for the reasons stated, I'd guess a slight downturn this year for Gonzo.

David Yudkin · Jun 4, 2007

shadyridr said:
I dont think youll ever see Gonzalez put up the HOF #s he put up in the past again. 75 rec, 900 yds, 5 tds

Here's the thing . . . there have only been 20 times where a TE had 75-900-5 in a season. And Gonzalex only had two of them. If Tony G were to put up these numbers, it would still be a great season for a TE.

shadyridr · Jun 4, 2007

David Yudkin said:
shadyridr said:

I dont think youll ever see Gonzalez put up the HOF #s he put up in the past again. 75 rec, 900 yds, 5 tds

Click to expand...

Here's the thing . . . there have only been 20 times where a TE had 75-900-5 in a season. And Gonzalex only had two of them. If Tony G were to put up these numbers, it would still be a great season for a TE.

Im focusing more on the TDs. I think the receptions and yards is a given.

rzrback77 · Jun 5, 2007

First off, Tony Gonzalez IS a future hall of famer. He has been awesome for a lot of years, finishing 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 7th, and 3rd among TEs over the past eight seasons. Even in the last four, where two of the seasons were his lowest ranking since 1998, his second year, he caught over 70 passes and had over 900 yards EACH year. It was the TD decrease that moved him down from the top of the TE.

But, he is 31 years old, so a slow down is on the horizon if not this year. Larry Johnson has been the focus of the offense in the red zone. There have only been seven TEs to put up over 100 fantasy points at age 30 and above (Gonzo was the seventh last year). I predict a decrease in 2007, but Gonzo stays in the top five

Tony Gonzalez 62 receptions for 810 yards and 4 TDs

CalBear · Jun 5, 2007

David Yudkin said:
shadyridr said:

I dont think youll ever see Gonzalez put up the HOF #s he put up in the past again. 75 rec, 900 yds, 5 tds

Click to expand...

Here's the thing . . . there have only been 20 times where a TE had 75-900-5 in a season. And Gonzalex only had two of them. If Tony G were to put up these numbers, it would still be a great season for a TE.

Outside the two seasons you've mentioned, Gonzo has also had:

Code:

| 1999 kan |  15 |	76	849  11.2   11 || 2001 kan |  16 |	73	917  12.6	6 || 2002 kan |  16 |	63	773  12.3	7 || 2003 kan |  16 |	71	916  12.9   10 || 2006 kan |  15 |	73	900  12.3	5 |

Let's not quibble over 2-4 receptions; 75/900/5 is below Gonzo's averages since 1999, it's way below his three-year average, and only off his two-year average by 1.5 TDs. I agree with part of your point, that 75/900/5 is a great TE season, not a typical TE season. But Gonzo has put up half a dozen better seasons than that, not just two.

DenverBroncos · Jun 5, 2007

Gonzo is still a top 6 TE for the next 3-4 years. I don't see any sign of him slowing down yet and he is in great shape. I think with Croyle starting, he might actually be a better outlet and do a little better this year.

bjabrad · Jun 5, 2007

If you listen to Herm, LJ is going to be used more often catching passes this season.

Factor in the draft of Bowe who is a big strong posession WR (like Irvin).

Eddie K's production went down from 68/1102/5 in 2005 to 53/860/5 in 2006.

Most people would agree that the OL isn't what it was during Vermeil.

Factor in Herm's conservative offensive nature.

Factor in question marks at the QB situation but IMO either you've got a good passer from last year (Huard) or you've got a young kid with a cannon arm that will take more chances downfield but will also be sacked more (Croyle).

What do you get?

Most people would say that Bowe plus LJ as a WR spells more competition for catches in the middle of the field in a conservative Herm offense but I see it differently. I see the possibility of a ball control offense (short passes) very similar to what New England runs except that KC has a superior RB in LJ.

Short answer,,,Gonzo will be Gonzo,,,just like always. Top 3 TE production. Keep riding him til he retires.

bostonfred · Jun 5, 2007

Running the ball. Passing the ball to the running back. Trying to stretch the field with a rookie WR and an aging vet whose numbers dropped last year. And a TE who is on the field for every single down and distance.

Gonzalez is the only player I'm high on in the Chiefs offense this year.

The Mechanic · Jun 5, 2007

In my Dynasty league I have L.J. and Tony Gonzalez. I have often thought of trading Gonzo for something beter but can't bring myself to do it. Yes his TD's are down but he gets the yardage. He busted a 100 yds last year if I remember right. Playing both every week may have its disadvantage but if LJ is having a off day then Tony makes it up. This year with the changes at QB and the Off line you would think having Gonzo as a safety valve is a good bet to happen.

bjabrad · Jun 7, 2007

You know what I want to see is TE info about who was the most consistent FF point producer and not just who the top point TE in FF. A guy that goes off for 20 FF points in one game to skew his average only helps me in one game. I'd rather have a guy that has a lower season FF point total but who is more consistent from game to game because that will help me win more games.

I can't remember now but wasn't Gonzo more of an hot/cold player last year?

The Jacket · Jun 7, 2007

Plenty of catches and yards but merely 3-5 TDs imo. Say 70-900-4.

David Yudkin · Jun 7, 2007

bjabrad said:
You know what I want to see is TE info about who was the most consistent FF point producer and not just who the top point TE in FF. A guy that goes off for 20 FF points in one game to skew his average only helps me in one game. I'd rather have a guy that has a lower season FF point total but who is more consistent from game to game because that will help me win more games. I can't remember now but wasn't Gonzo more of an hot/cold player last year?

In 0 PPR leagues, here are Tony G's weekly scoring totals in recent seasons:2006: 14, 0, 5, 2, 1, 13, 13, 18, 8, 3, 22, 3, 5, 6, 2 2005: 5, 4, 2, 0, 1, 6, 15, 7, 8, 9, 6, 8, 9, 5, 5, 52004: 1, 6, 16, 4, 14, 1, 24, 18, 7, 8, 10, 3, 7, 4, 24, 14

bjabrad · Jun 7, 2007

David Yudkin said:
bjabrad said:

You know what I want to see is TE info about who was the most consistent FF point producer and not just who the top point TE in FF. A guy that goes off for 20 FF points in one game to skew his average only helps me in one game. I'd rather have a guy that has a lower season FF point total but who is more consistent from game to game because that will help me win more games. I can't remember now but wasn't Gonzo more of an hot/cold player last year?

Click to expand...

In 0 PPR leagues, here are Tony G's weekly scoring totals in recent seasons:2006: 14, 0, 5, 2, 1, 13, 13, 18, 8, 3, 22, 3, 5, 6, 2 2005: 5, 4, 2, 0, 1, 6, 15, 7, 8, 9, 6, 8, 9, 5, 5, 52004: 1, 6, 16, 4, 14, 1, 24, 18, 7, 8, 10, 3, 7, 4, 24, 14

Thanks David,Is this info easy to find on the premium site of FBG and if so where do I look?Additionally, is there already some sort of handy stat available that FBG puts together showing maybe the number of games below the ff pts/gm average of each player?

JayMan · Jun 8, 2007

CalBear said:
David Yudkin said:

shadyridr said:

I dont think youll ever see Gonzalez put up the HOF #s he put up in the past again. 75 rec, 900 yds, 5 tds

Click to expand...

Here's the thing . . . there have only been 20 times where a TE had 75-900-5 in a season. And Gonzalex only had two of them. If Tony G were to put up these numbers, it would still be a great season for a TE.

Click to expand...

Outside the two seasons you've mentioned, Gonzo has also had:

Code:

| 1999 kan | 15 | 76 849 11.2 11 || 2001 kan | 16 | 73 917 12.6 6 || 2002 kan | 16 | 63 773 12.3 7 || 2003 kan | 16 | 71 916 12.9 10 || 2006 kan | 15 | 73 900 12.3 5 |

Let's not quibble over 2-4 receptions; 75/900/5 is below Gonzo's averages since 1999, it's way below his three-year average, and only off his two-year average by 1.5 TDs. I agree with part of your point, that 75/900/5 is a great TE season, not a typical TE season. But Gonzo has put up half a dozen better seasons than that, not just two.

not to mention that 900/5 = 120 FBG pts... and Gonzo went above this mark in 6 of 8 seasons since '99 (missing with 119 and 103)...

CalBear · Jun 18, 2007

Gonzalez is still at the very top of NFL TEs in terms of talent combined with opportunity. He's got four years in a row with 900+ yards and 70+ receptions; he's only 31 and shows no signs of slowing down. The only possible negative for him is the uncertain QB situation in KC, but he did just fine with Huard at QB last year. With his ADP falling into the sixth round, it's hard not to like him as a much better value than a third-round Gates, who outscored Gonzo by only 26 points in 2006 and has a coaching change to deal with.

75 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TD. Good for approximately TE#2 by FBG scoring.

sholditch · Jun 18, 2007

with loss of Shields:

70 for 840 and 7 TDs not bad at all

Player Spotlight: Tony Gonzalez (1 Viewer)

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