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Jason Hill vs. Steve Smith (usc)..... (1 Viewer)

jgb95

jgb95

Footballguy
Trying to decide between these two in a dynasty league.

I'd like some of your thoughts on these two.

Who's in a better position to produce over the long haul.

I have a deep WR corp. Just looking to score big for the future.

Thanks

1 PPR league

 
I had to struggle with this decision myself and I sided towards Hill. I don't think you can go wrong either way though.

IMO, Smith is going to be a solid NFL WR2. He's got great work ethic, hands, decent speed, and will do what it takes to make a catch. I just don't seem him having the ability to take over a game the way I think Hill is capable of doing though. I personally feel D Jax is running on fumes and Lelie is no threat. With Smith, Gore, and Davis SF has a great young offensive core and just need that long-term go-to WR, which I beleive Hill will become.

To sum it up, I think Smith has the higher floor but Hill has the higher ceiling.

 
When you are lookign at long term value, the one thing you absolutely cannot look at is the people ahead of these WR's on the depth chart. Base it on talent.

Steve Smith might not be as flashy as Hill (who I think will be a solid player), but he does everything an NFL team wants from their receivers - he has great hands and runs great routes. So he is not 6'4. He is also not 5'7. His size is fine.

 
Guinis72 said:
I had to struggle with this decision myself and I sided towards Hill. I don't think you can go wrong either way though.

IMO, Smith is going to be a solid NFL WR2. He's got great work ethic, hands, decent speed, and will do what it takes to make a catch. I just don't seem him having the ability to take over a game the way I think Hill is capable of doing though. I personally feel D Jax is running on fumes and Lelie is no threat. With Smith, Gore, and Davis SF has a great young offensive core and just need that long-term go-to WR, which I beleive Hill will become.

To sum it up, I think Smith has the higher floor but Hill has the higher ceiling.
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:( You say you want to score "big" in your first post, so I would take the chance on Hill.

 
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This is a pretty strange WR class in the sense that no one besides Calvin Johnson is a lock, yet there are 8-10 guys with legit chances to become good NFL starters.

Hill and Smith are tough to gauge. Neither really jumps out in highlights, but they were both productive in college and they both put up very good workout numbers, suggesting that they have the physical ability to be starting NFL receivers.

I think I agree with the idea that Smith is the safer pick with lower upside. It's tough for me to imagine him becoming a flop in the NFL, but I really think Derrick Mason is the best case scenario for him, while Bobby Engram represents his floor. He has the look of a good second WR who will work the short stuff.

Hill has a better chance of being a true WR1, but he also has a bigger chance of being a bust. He didn't really dominate at the Senior Bowl and he didn't always play up to his timed speed in college.

 
I am one of the few that thinks Hill could be one of the top 2-3 WRs from this class. I think this kid is a star.

 
wannabee said:
I am one of the few that thinks Hill could be one of the top 2-3 WRs from this class. I think this kid is a star.
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I agree with you.I liked Hill better than everyone except Calvin. Got him in all three of my dynasty leagues. With the 14th and 15th picks in two different rookie drafts.
 
Acquired Hill in 3 Dynasty's got him around the 2.9 / 2.10 / 3.2

Have him as my next best after Calvin and Bowe.

Hill and James Jones seem the best value where they go IMO

Jones is a touch slow, but all his other skills will get him through.

 
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I got to watch Hill a few times at Wazzu. He may not have always shown his speed, but he was always open, especially in the red zone. He has the makings of a star if the 9ers continue to progress, but I do agree that he has a higher potential for bust.

By the way I picked up Hill at 2.06 and Smith at 2.07 and think they both will be steals at that spot in the draft!

 
EBF said:
Hill has a better chance of being a true WR1, but he also has a bigger chance of being a bust. He didn't really dominate at the Senior Bowl and he didn't always play up to his timed speed in college.
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I don't think Steve Smith played up to his timed speed in college either. Did anybody think that Smith was as fast as his 40? Could not believe how close Jarrett and Steve Smith were ranked after Smith's 40?
 
1. I took both of them, I had Hill as the #2 WR in the NFL Draft and Smith at #3. I dont know wich of the two has the higher value going forward. Both will have a chance, that is as important as Skill.

Smith is a bit quicker in the 30 yd cone drill and 20 yard shuttle, Hill a little quicker straight line speed. Both seem to be very fluid and have soft hands.

2. That said, I agree with some of you that this draft was very, very deep at WR this year. I think McNight has a great chance at starting for NO eventually and he was drafted in the 7th round.

3. Jarret, C.Davis, Gonzo, Mike Walker, Bowe, Courtney Taylor, Paul Williams, Dallas Baker, Clowney, Kent and on and on could all contribute and stick around a while. I think more than a few of these guys are going to be studs. Picking them is the trick.

4. I dont see Mechem being around long, I just did not like the film on this guy. Seems to be slightly afraid of the ball, if that make sense. Watch the tape you see him sorta of pull back when the ball arrives. Lets the ball close in on his cage before really gripping it. Maybe the right coaching staff will turn him into a stud, all the other skills are there? I dont know..

4. I did not mention CJ, no need to!!

 
For some reason Hill is extremely overrated on these boards. He is playing in SF where DJax, VD and Gore are option 1 to 3. Hill probably won't even beat out Lelie and Battle. At best Hill is the 4th option on the freaking 49er's and most likely option 5 or 6. Hill's ceiling in the next few years is 40 rec., 400 yards and 3-5 TD's. And that is a generous ceiling.

THERE IS A REASON HE IS WAS THE 13TH WR DRAFTED!!!

 
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I was always a big Steve Smith fan. I think he has the talent and will get the opportunity fast. He's already better than Moss, he only has to leapfrog over an old and recovering-from-ACL Toomer to start, and the Giants will tire of Burress' BS sooner or later. I see Smith as the Giants #1 for years to come.

 
DenverBroncos said:
For some reason Hill is extremely overrated on these boards. He is playing in SF where DJax, VD and Gore are option 1 to 3. Hill probably won't even beat out Lelie and Battle. At best Hill is the 4th option on the freaking 49er's and most likely option 5 or 6. Hill's ceiling in the next few years is 40 rec., 400 yards and 3-5 TD's. And that is a generous ceiling.

THERE IS A REASON HE IS WAS THE 13TH WR DRAFTED!!!
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If you don't like hill fine but I hate it when ppl use a guy's draft slot as an example of how good or bad he is. Last year marques colston was the 30th wr drafted[/b.
 
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Actually Colston was the 33rd WR taken and is of course the exception to the rule, Jason Hill is not, nor does his situation even point to him having a fantasy relevance.

 
DenverBroncos said:
Actually Colston was the 33rd WR taken and is of course the exception to the rule, Jason Hill is not, nor does his situation even point to him having a fantasy relevance.
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oh really? Then how come every year you can find a player whose production outperforms his draft pick as well as guys who never live up to their lofty pick? To base a guy's value on his draft position is foolish
 
Their draft position regardless of whether it is pefect is still the best measure of success in the NFL. Of course there are people who are busts and people who are great finds, ala Colston but for the most part where a player is picked does determine success. If you can think of a sig bet for what Jason Hill may or may not do, I'd love to explore that idea. What do you think Hill is capable of?

 
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DenverBroncos said:
For some reason Hill is extremely overrated on these boards. He is playing in SF where DJax, VD and Gore are option 1 to 3. Hill probably won't even beat out Lelie and Battle. At best Hill is the 4th option on the freaking 49er's and most likely option 5 or 6. Hill's ceiling in the next few years is 40 rec., 400 yards and 3-5 TD's. And that is a generous ceiling.

THERE IS A REASON HE IS WAS THE 13TH WR DRAFTED!!!
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Jason Hill's stock took a big hit just because of an injury plagued senior season.Same situation happened to Frank Gore.He did everything that was asked of him throughout college, the senior bowl and the combine. Hes fully capable of being a WR1. Vernon isnt a lock to be a beast yet and D-Jax has knee concerns. Extremely over-rated is going in the late 2nd early 3rd?

Receiving Stats

YEAR TEAM REC YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LOST

2004 WSU 45 1007 22.4 76 12 0 0 0

2005 WSU 62 1097 17.7 80 13 0 0 0

2006 WSU 41 600 14.6 71 7 0 0 0

 
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DenverBroncos said:
People are rating him as the 2nd/3rd best WR in the draft. That to me is overrated.
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There waiting til the 2nd or 3rd round, and getting the potential number 2/3 WR of the draft and still getting a 1st rounder too while Bowe/Meachem/Rice/Smith/Jarrett/Gonzo go.Even if some think hes the WR1 of the Draft, that doesn't mean there paying for it. I call that value.
 
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DenverBroncos said:
For some reason Hill is extremely overrated on these boards. He is playing in SF where DJax, VD and Gore are option 1 to 3. Hill probably won't even beat out Lelie and Battle. At best Hill is the 4th option on the freaking 49er's and most likely option 5 or 6. Hill's ceiling in the next few years is 40 rec., 400 yards and 3-5 TD's. And that is a generous ceiling.

THERE IS A REASON HE IS WAS THE 13TH WR DRAFTED!!!
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Why don't you like Hill, and think he will be a bust?
 
DenverBroncos said:
Actually Colston was the 33rd WR taken and is of course the exception to the rule, Jason Hill is not, nor does his situation even point to him having a fantasy relevance.
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Actually after my Niners dropped you out of the Playoffs last year, they went on to pick up a small school prospect stud named Jason Hill. Hopfully Hill will get to play the Broncos at some point and burn your shut down corner for a few scores. :blackdot:Okay that was not very nice. The point is we all get to evaluate each player on our own, I may be full of Donkey Doo but I stick by my evaluation as Hill being the second best WR to come out this year. By the end of this season or next you may be able to post that you told me so. Maybe your right, but I get this feeling if the Broncos had drafted him you would be telling the rest of us that he was the second comming of Jerry Rice.
 
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wannabee said:
I am one of the few that thinks Hill could be one of the top 2-3 WRs from this class. I think this kid is a star.
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I'm there with ya, dude is tuff, plays hurt, go's over the middle, comes back to the QB to bail him out, runs great routes. Gotta work a little on the Press Coverage and getting off the line, NFL corners are a slight bit more physical than your typical college player. Overall 2-3yrs dude will be rockin. IMHO
 
Just based on the teams they belong too; I like Hill much better.

There maybe some dark days coming for the Giants, they could be entering a very deep hole if this season doesn't go good. On the other hand; SF seems to be digging out of that hole into some nice, bright days.

Of course a lot can change in a season; but for now I'll take Hill over Smith in every draft.

 
Factoid on Hill:

Other than his freshman year where he had ZERO catches for the year, Hill averaged over one TD per game. I realize it was in the Pac 10, but it is still impressive.

 
I like both players but Hill will have to do with Alex Smith. Say what you want about Eli but atleast he can give his WRs the rock, Smith being there makes me reluctant to Hill.

So I'd take Steve Smith

 
DenverBroncos said:
For some reason Hill is extremely overrated on these boards. He is playing in SF where DJax, VD and Gore are option 1 to 3. Hill probably won't even beat out Lelie and Battle. At best Hill is the 4th option on the freaking 49er's and most likely option 5 or 6. Hill's ceiling in the next few years is 40 rec., 400 yards and 3-5 TD's. And that is a generous ceiling.

THERE IS A REASON HE IS WAS THE 13TH WR DRAFTED!!!
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And exactly what is the reason? I think the main reason was that he had a crappy QB. Who was the WA state Qb? If a guy can produce with a substandard QB he is definitely going to find the transition to the pros and to Alex Smith throwing the ball much easier.

I think the guy who said that Smith is safer but Hill has the higher ceiling is right. Hill could be a stud.

Bear in mind, we are talking dynasty. I don't expect Hill to produce anything this year. But I don't see Ashley Lelie (who is hurt again and not practicing) or Battle or DJAX (who is hurt again too and was traded by Seattle FOR A REASON) to hold Hill off for more than a year.

 
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I like both of these guys, I was surprised to see

Steve Smith ranked the #1 of drafted WRs

in the NCAA in receiving yards per game

against ranked opponents.

 
Ron_Mexico said:
I like both of these guys, I was surprised to seeSteve Smith ranked the #1 of drafted WRsin the NCAA in receiving yards per gameagainst ranked opponents.
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He played in the shadow of Dwayne Jarrett, but Smith is going to be an excellent pro.
 
I think both of these WR have the talent to be WR1's for thier respective teams. I do not see any weakness in either of thier games both can do it all.

Hill has Darrell Jackson to compete with.. may be WR2 for awhile. I do not see him losing time to Lelie or Battle in the long run.

Smith has Plax to compete with.. given Plax's inconsistencies it will not suprise me to see Eli lean more on Smith as time goes on. Smith is not the physical freak that Plax is but he runs better routes and has better hands and I think could eventualy be the better WR for the Giants.

ETA- not sure I like the feel of the new board formating. Bring back ol yeller.

 
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Biabreakable said:
I think both of these WR have the talent to be WR1's for thier respective teams. I do not see any weakness in either of thier games both can do it all.Hill has Darrell Jackson to compete with.. may be WR2 for awhile. I do not see him losing time to Lelie or Battle in the long run.Smith has Plax to compete with.. given Plax's inconsistencies it will not suprise me to see Eli lean more on Smith as time goes on. Smith is not the physical freak that Plax is but he runs better routes and has better hands and I think could eventualy be the better WR for the Giants.ETA- not sure I like the feel of the new board formating. Bring back ol yeller.
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Here's the deal though: if the SF offense is so difficult to learn, how well can SJax and Lelie learn it while sitting out OTAs? It is a new offense to them too. The strongest WR in SF this year could be Battle, but I like Hill's chances of getting involved some and winning a starting spot next year. Lelie and Djax have always been injury prone and Djax is not getting any younger. Lelie could not even beat out Michael Jenkins or Roddy White in Atlanta. He has now failed with two different organizations. I don't see him as a big threat.
 
The 49ers might not have any superstars at WR this year, but there are a lot of talented guys for Hill to beat out. I'd be surprised if Hill makes a fantasy impact this year. Another guy the team is really high on is Marcus Maxwell from NFL Europe. Even if Jackson and Lelie wash out and are not in the picture, I think they'd end up with Battle as WR1 and 2-3 other guys fighting for the rest of the WR touches.

 
thecatch said:
The 49ers might not have any superstars at WR this year, but there are a lot of talented guys for Hill to beat out. I'd be surprised if Hill makes a fantasy impact this year. Another guy the team is really high on is Marcus Maxwell from NFL Europe. Even if Jackson and Lelie wash out and are not in the picture, I think they'd end up with Battle as WR1 and 2-3 other guys fighting for the rest of the WR touches.
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To start the season D-Jax will be the WR1 until he gets hurt with Battle being the WR 2 and Leile the WR 3. Hill will be the WR 4 with a very good chance to move into a larger role as the season progresses.Hill is more talented then any of the WR's on the 49'ers including Jackson who is solid but not elite. Hill will have to put in some time before he starts getting the most looks out of these WR's but it may only take a year or 2 for this to happen. Hill has star potential.
 
NorrisB said:
Anyone still high on hill like I am?
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I was high on him and spent first rounders on him last year (own him in 3 leagues), so he'll stay on my roster this year. Don't need him to break out, but would like to see some glimpses of what he can do.
 
Just picked him up in a dynasty league recently, a nice little throw-in on a larger deal. Hoping for some signs of life this year in the Martz O.

 
The 49ers have signed Isaac Bruce. Great mentor for Hill but will also hurt his opportunity.

May need to be paitent another year with Hill depending on how well DJackson and Bruce play.

As far as Steve Smith, I think he has shown some good signs with his play late in the season. Plax improved his game as well. Smith looks like option #2 as long as Plax keeps it together.

 
Loved Jason Hill in college and I've compared him to Isaac Bruce. This is a good thing for Hill as mentioned above. I think Hill and Smith are the two best receivers from last year's class not named Johnson.

 
NorrisB said:
Anyone still high on hill like I am?
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:raises hand: I'm not planning on starting him at all this season, but I would like to see more involvement and some production over the second half. Even if he did play last season we wouldn't have seen much. I really hope Shaun Hill gets the starting gig. Not only do I think he'd be better for the Niners I think he'd be better for Hill's production having worked with him a lot in practice last season.
 
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