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Player Spotlight: Marion Barber (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Marion Barber, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Marion Barber Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
I'm torn on MBIII because I think last year absoloutly everything that could go his way did (in terms of fantasy football). If he remains the backup he won't approach last years numbers as Parcells really favored the tough nose grind out yards that Barber provided.

If he can push JJ than he may have a shot at some big things though, I don't know if that will happen but I do know he's fighting to stay with the Cowboys over the next year or two as free agency and some good RB prospects in the draft are already being talked about.

115-540-7 28-240-2

 
The guy nearly ran the ball for 5 yards per carry last year, I say give him the ball more and see what kind of load this guy can take. I like the way he blocks in passing situations and obviously runs hard near the goaline and 3rd/4th and short. He's only had 135 and 138 carries the past 2 seasons. I'd like to see him get 200 plus carries.....if he does, he'll run for just under 1000 yards.

940 yards rushing and 13 td's

20 receptions for 220 yards and 2 td's

 
Plain and simple I think Barber is a more talented RB than Jones and now with Parcells gone I think Barber will eventually get more of the carries. That being said Jones will still get some carries and is a good change of pace and breakaway RB. I can see a 60/40 split favoring Barber but Barber is much more valuable as he gets the goalline love and rightfully deserves it.

240 att, 1000 yds, 10 tds, 25 rec, 150 yds, 1 td

 
I think people are going to end up being wrong about Barber. I think it will be a split, but in favor of Julius Jones. Depends who has a better preseason and what kind of running style Garrett wants though

rushing 150 600 7

recieving 25 150 1

 
Through this point in their respective careers, Marion Barber has been the better back in every facet of the game. One would hope the new coaching staff would allow the more talented and productive back (Barber) to get he lion's share of the touches. But, we can't be sure that Wade Phillips won't want an RBBC because Jones, while not in Barber's class, was productive last season and can certainly help this year.

 
Cowboys#1 said:
I'm torn on MBIII because I think last year absoloutly everything that could go his way did (in terms of fantasy football). If he remains the backup he won't approach last years numbers as Parcells really favored the tough nose grind out yards that Barber provided.

If he can push JJ than he may have a shot at some big things though, I don't know if that will happen but I do know he's fighting to stay with the Cowboys over the next year or two as free agency and some good RB prospects in the draft are already being talked about.

115-540-7 28-240-2
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I agree with this post. Parcells really did prefer Barber, gave him every opportunity, he wanted Barber to cement himself as the guy in Dallas, but Barber just couldn't do it. IMO I don't think Barber or Jones will be very useful for fantasy purposes this season, maybe Barber is a little better but neither are that good. I consider them both maybe a spot/bye week starter, but I'm personally hoping to do better with my RB3, I'm not excited about either name unless I somehow land them as RB4
 
I have no clue about Barber and no one else on this board does either. Heck, even the coaching staff couldn't pen a decent PS post about Barber. Trying to project Barber is like throwing darts blindfolded.

 
BassNBrew said:
I have no clue about Barber and no one else on this board does either. Heck, even the coaching staff couldn't pen a decent PS post about Barber. Trying to project Barber is like throwing darts blindfolded.
Click to expand...
Or like listening to a BassNBrew projection.
 
BassNBrew said:
I have no clue about Barber and no one else on this board does either. Heck, even the coaching staff couldn't pen a decent PS post about Barber. Trying to project Barber is like throwing darts blindfolded.
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When you add in that he'll go early for someone with such uncertainty because the most optimistic owner in your league will be taking him in the 4th round, MBIII is a tough sell. I was much more confident last year in his talent limiting JJ's value than I am this year in his talent winning him a feature back job. He's a better all around back than JJ, but he's not elusive or creative. I don't see him decisively outplaying JJ in camp. The best hope if you're drafting MBIII is that JJ gets dinged up and MBIII looks as good as he did when given the chance in 2005, which would then probably relegate JJ to a change of pace role - but to justify his current ADP, you have to be almost certain that he's going to get that kind of shot.
 
gman8343 said:
Jason Wood said:
Through this point in their respective careers, Marion Barber has been the better back in every facet of the game.
Click to expand...
Do you consider Barber a better home run threat than Jones?
Click to expand...
Yes...among other things:
Yards per rush 2006: Jones (4.1) vs. Barber (4.8)
Yards per rush career: Jones (4.0) vs. Barber (4.4)
Rushing TDs: 16 in 37 games (Jones) vs. 19 in 29 games (Barber)
Goal-line TDs: Jones (7) vs. Barber (13)
Goal-line TD%: Jones (23%) vs. Barber (38%)
Short-yardage conversion %: Jones (51%) vs. Barber (57%)
Average on 1st down: Jones (3.75 YPR) vs. Barber (4.25 YPR)
Average on 2nd down: Jones (4.40 YPR) vs. Barber (4.32 YPR)
Average on 3rd down: Jones (3.95 YPR) vs. Barber (4.85 YPR)
Average inside the red zone: Jones (2.66 YPR) vs. Barber (2.99 YPR)
Receptions per target: Jones (70.9%) vs. Barber (71.9%)
Receiving TDs: Jones (0) vs. Barber (2)
Yards per reception: Jones (7.7) vs. Barber (7.6)
% rushes stopped at or behind line of scrimmage: Jones (9.7%) vs. Barber (4.4%) -- 2nd best in NFL
Big play rushes (>10 yards): Jones (9.4%) vs. Barber (15.5%)
Fumbles 2006: 1 for Jones vs. 0 for Barber
Fumbles, Career: 8 for Jones vs. 3 for Barber
Games missed: 11 of 48 (23%) for Jones vs. 3 of 32 (9%) for BarberAll running behind the same lines and same coaches. Explain to me, objectively, how Julius Jones is a better runner in any facet of the game? Barber is more explosive, doesn't get stuffed, doesn't turn the ball over, is healthier, and is far better in short yardage. The only area where Jones has an edge, and it's paltry, is as a receiver.
Click to expand...
 
What I see from those numbers are two very similar backs. Barber holds the edge but not by enough to dictate him getting the lion's share of carries. Plus I doubt coaches make depth chart decisions based on stats.

 
I can't tell which one of Barber or Jones will get the lions share of action for Dallas this year, so for now, I'm going with close to a 50/50 split. However, Barber seems likely to get much more goal line work and catch more passes, so I think he will outscore Jones in 07 (in fantasy points).

Rushing Yds: 850

Rushing TDs: 9

Recs: 25

Rec Yds: 200

Rec TDs: 1

 
The thing which made Barber so valuable in fantasy last year is the fact he scored boat loads of TDs, but the thing is that he scored these TDs on such a low amount of carries.

Barber scored TDs at a better clip than all the stud RBs.

At about every 10 touches, Barber scored a TD.

Compare that the top 5 fantasy RBs from last year...

Tomlinson: TD every 13 touches (broke TD record)

L. Johnson: TD every 24 touches

Jackson: TD every 26 touches

Gore: TD every 41 touches

FWP: TD every 23 touches

Marion Barber's "TD per # of carries" sticks out like a sore thumb and one of the reasons why I think he will come back down to earth and although he may get more carries than last season, to expect TD numbers in anywhere of the vicinity of last year is pushing it. Couple that with his high YPC and how it can really only diminish and I think people will be sorely disappointed with MBIII at his ADP.

 
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To me, Barber will beat out Jones and get the majority of carries because he gets to the line and hits the hole much quicker than Jones does. As has been alluded to before, he's also more of a home run threat. From having watched him last year, I was impressed with his potential.

That being said, my problem with Barber is that to my eye, he runs too upright and presents a big target. Granted, he's a bigger back(6-2 220) but I just think he's an injury risk if they start feeding him the ball 20 times a game.

So I'm conservatively basing my projection on 17 carries per game for 14 game (assuming he gets nicked 2 games).

Rushing 238/1045/10

Recv 35/280/2

 
Based upon Wade Phillips' comments to date, you're not going to see a change on how these guys are utilized. Everything Wade has said so far is to the effect of, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Dallas held over last year's running game coordinator Tony Sparano (not Soprano). They are not changing that part of the playbook this year. Garrett is installing a new passing scheme. But running is not changing.

We can argue ad naseum (and have) who's the better back. But until the coaches decide to utilize these guys in different roles, and there has been NO indication thus far that roles are changing and there have been comments that they're not changing, you have to go by last year's results.

 
The projections of the two Dallas RBs for 07 confuse me. This message board all summer has been filled with threads featuring quotes about Barber being the better RB, Barber has proved to be the better option, Barber scores TDs, etc. Barber was the better goal line back in 06 for the Cowboys and I have to admit that I'm not a big Cowboy fan and didn't watch a lot of their games, but I keep seeing the number of touches and I'm confused.

Julius Jones 06 - 267 rushes for 1,084 yds (4.1 ypc) 15 targets 9 catches 142 yds (15.8 ypc) 4 total TDs

Marion Barber 06 - 135 rushes for 654 yds (4.8 ypc) 32 targets 23 catches 196 yds (8.5 ypc) 16 total TDs

Julius Jones 05 - 257 rushes for 993 yds (3.9 ypc) 46 targets 35 catches 218 yds (6.3 ypc) 5 total TDs

Marion Barber 05 - 138 rushes for 538 yds (3.9 ypc) 25 targets 18 catches 115 yds (6.4 ypc) 5 total TDs

I see Jones with almost twice the carries of Barber for each of the two seasons that Barber has been in the league. I see two effective receivers. I see two fairly effective RBs. The only aspect that Barber stands out in the statistics is in 06, with a lot of TDs. Others may point to the ypc in 06, but it is not unusual for the lower carry guy to have a higher ypc and even that was not the case in 05.

Maybe Barber is the more talented RB, but why did Jones have double the carries in each of Barber's two seasons? Now to the value of the two, Barber has an ADP of RB25 and 40 overall, while Jones is RB33 and 73 overall. That makes which of the two to draft an easy choice for me.

As for my projection, I am going to go with what happened in the two previous seasons and the Phillips quote that if it ain't broke, why fix it.

M Barber 130 carries 600 yds (4.6 ypc) 35 targets 24 catches 210 yds and 10 total TDs

 
I for one am not buying into all the hype on MBIII. Here was an article I posted several weeks ago that may point to what to expect this year . . .

Notebook: Jones hitting weights apart from team

Phillips had hoped workouts would allow players to bond

12:56 AM CDT on Sunday, May 13, 2007

By CALVIN WATKINS / The Dallas Morning News

cwatkins@dallasnews.com

IRVING – In off-season workouts, Wade Phillips wanted his players to bond with each other and with new members of the coaching staff.

Starting running back Julius Jones didn't get the memo.

Jones was a no-show at the optional workouts over the last few weeks, but he did participate in Saturday's minicamp. Jones will attend all minicamp sessions until they end Monday.

Phillips said he didn't have any issues with Jones' absence from the workouts after Jones' agent, Tom Condon, told him that Jones is working out in Arizona.

"I encourage guys to be here," said Phillips, referring to the off-season workouts. "I like the team aspect of it, not just the working out part."

Phillips said he didn't know whether Jones would attend future optional workouts.

The Cowboys are committed to returning Jones as the lead running back after he rushed for 1,084 yards on 267 carries with four touchdowns last season.

"He's been productive here," Phillips said. "I think he'll continue to be. He worked out in Arizona, and he was really the only guy not here in the off-season. He looks like he's in good shape and running well."

This is an important season for Jones because he's in the last year of his contract.

At times, Jones was frustrated with his role last season, but Cowboys officials and coaches have indicated he will get his carries. However, No. 2 back Marion Barber, who was utilized on passing downs last season, will still get plenty of action.

The coaches like Jones' ability to catch passes out of the backfield, and he ran some of those plays in practice Saturday.

"We're excited about Julius. Obviously, he's been a good player for a few years now," offensive coordinator Jason Garrett said. "When you watch him on tape, he's the kind of guy that has great instincts for running the football, and he has the potential to make big plays."
Click to expand...
LINK

At this point it doesn't much sound like Jones is getting sent to the bench and MBIII taking over. Some folks have MBIII ranked 20-30 spots higher than Jones. Maybe Jones does take a back seat at some point, but it doesn't appear that the Cowboys are looking to change much heading into the season.

 
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I see a more even split for the two of them this season, but until I see more optimistic comments from Dallas, I don't see much upside here. It would be hard to expect the same amount of TDs, and with only a share of the touches, his value is limited. I believe he is the superior back here to Jones, but that doesn't matter obviously.

195-897-10, 30-231-1

 
David Yudkin said:
I for one am not buying into all the hype on MBIII. Here was an article I posted several weeks ago that may point to what to expect this year . . .

Notebook: Jones hitting weights apart from team

Phillips had hoped workouts would allow players to bond

12:56 AM CDT on Sunday, May 13, 2007

By CALVIN WATKINS / The Dallas Morning News

cwatkins@dallasnews.com

IRVING – In off-season workouts, Wade Phillips wanted his players to bond with each other and with new members of the coaching staff.

Starting running back Julius Jones didn't get the memo.

Jones was a no-show at the optional workouts over the last few weeks, but he did participate in Saturday's minicamp. Jones will attend all minicamp sessions until they end Monday.

Phillips said he didn't have any issues with Jones' absence from the workouts after Jones' agent, Tom Condon, told him that Jones is working out in Arizona.

"I encourage guys to be here," said Phillips, referring to the off-season workouts. "I like the team aspect of it, not just the working out part."

Phillips said he didn't know whether Jones would attend future optional workouts.

The Cowboys are committed to returning Jones as the lead running back after he rushed for 1,084 yards on 267 carries with four touchdowns last season.

"He's been productive here," Phillips said. "I think he'll continue to be. He worked out in Arizona, and he was really the only guy not here in the off-season. He looks like he's in good shape and running well."

This is an important season for Jones because he's in the last year of his contract.

At times, Jones was frustrated with his role last season, but Cowboys officials and coaches have indicated he will get his carries. However, No. 2 back Marion Barber, who was utilized on passing downs last season, will still get plenty of action.

The coaches like Jones' ability to catch passes out of the backfield, and he ran some of those plays in practice Saturday.

"We're excited about Julius. Obviously, he's been a good player for a few years now," offensive coordinator Jason Garrett said. "When you watch him on tape, he's the kind of guy that has great instincts for running the football, and he has the potential to make big plays."
Click to expand...
LINK

At this point it doesn't much sound like Jones is getting sent to the bench and MBIII taking over. Some folks have MBIII ranked 20-30 spots higher than Jones. Maybe Jones does take a back seat at some point, but it doesn't appear that the Cowboys are looking to change much heading into the season.
Click to expand...
I really try to stay away from this debate.....so I will just say. :thumbup:

 
Jason Wood said:
gman8343 said:
Jason Wood said:
Through this point in their respective careers, Marion Barber has been the better back in every facet of the game.
Click to expand...
Do you consider Barber a better home run threat than Jones?
Click to expand...
Yes...among other things:
Yards per rush 2006: Jones (4.1) vs. Barber (4.8)
Yards per rush career: Jones (4.0) vs. Barber (4.4)
Rushing TDs: 16 in 37 games (Jones) vs. 19 in 29 games (Barber)
Goal-line TDs: Jones (7) vs. Barber (13)
Goal-line TD%: Jones (23%) vs. Barber (38%)
Short-yardage conversion %: Jones (51%) vs. Barber (57%)
Average on 1st down: Jones (3.75 YPR) vs. Barber (4.25 YPR)
Average on 2nd down: Jones (4.40 YPR) vs. Barber (4.32 YPR)
Average on 3rd down: Jones (3.95 YPR) vs. Barber (4.85 YPR)
Average inside the red zone: Jones (2.66 YPR) vs. Barber (2.99 YPR)
Receptions per target: Jones (70.9%) vs. Barber (71.9%)
Receiving TDs: Jones (0) vs. Barber (2)
Yards per reception: Jones (7.7) vs. Barber (7.6)
% rushes stopped at or behind line of scrimmage: Jones (9.7%) vs. Barber (4.4%) -- 2nd best in NFL
Big play rushes (>10 yards): Jones (9.4%) vs. Barber (15.5%)
Fumbles 2006: 1 for Jones vs. 0 for Barber
Fumbles, Career: 8 for Jones vs. 3 for Barber
Games missed: 11 of 48 (23%) for Jones vs. 3 of 32 (9%) for BarberAll running behind the same lines and same coaches. Explain to me, objectively, how Julius Jones is a better runner in any facet of the game? Barber is more explosive, doesn't get stuffed, doesn't turn the ball over, is healthier, and is far better in short yardage. The only area where Jones has an edge, and it's paltry, is as a receiver.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Jones' longest run from scrimmage in '06 - 77ydsBarber's longest: 25 yds

Jones' 2nd longest, 33 yds. 3rd longest: 26 yds

Barbers 2nd, 24 yds. 3rd: 20 yds.

I don't really have a dog in the fight, I hate the Cowboys, but I'd heard Julius Jones was faster in the open field than Barber. Perhaps I heard wrong. Objectively, though, if everything you point out is so apparent, then it's quite obvious that Jones will be Barber's backup this season -- NFL coachs aren't stupid, so if Barber is so superior to Jones in every facet of the game, Jones will be riding the pine. Yet for some reason I don't think this will be the case.

 
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity.

My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.

It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.

I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.

90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber

 
Welcome. I just wanted to say that this is very well thought out and on target, IMO.

pwtrash said:
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity. My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber
Click to expand...
 
here are some interesting tidbits i was able to pull together:

In the girls 9 wins:

MBarber: 97carries 528 yards 5.4ypc 12TDs

In their 7 loses

MBarber: 38carries 126 yards 3.3ypc 2TDs

seems to me that the boys should do their best to get barber at least 10 rushes/game...but as a birds fan i say give him 2/game!

carries in the 4th quarter when the score was within 7 pts:

JJ: 25 carries for 68 yards 2.7avg 1TD

Barber: 28 carries for 146 yards 5.2avg 5TDs

Last 2 minutes of a half:

JJ 3 carries for 25 yards 0TDs

Barber 15 carries for 88 yards 1TD

4th quarter:

JJ 43/138 3.2ypc 1TD

Barber 50/285 5.7ypc 8TDs

in the red zone:

JJ 49/138 2.8 2TDs

Barber 51/171 3.4 14TDs

and just in case someone wants to chime in with the but Barber was mainly running the ball when the cowgirls had the lead blah blah blah I give you this:

Barber had 73 carries when the boys were not leading and those 73 carries accounted for 54% of his overall carries...so Barber actually had fewer carries when the boys had a lead then when they were losing

and i am sure that someone will probably want to point out that Barber did most of his damage on 3rd down when teams were expecting the pass...well unfortunately for those that want to use that argument it just isnt true:

By DOWN(carries/yards/tds) for Barber

1st 63/296 7

2nd 34/177 4

3rd 34/176 2

4th 4/5 1

so barber only got 25% of his carries and 27% of his yards on 3rd down

I know that JJ is the shiftier and faster back and it seems like the girls are gonna live and die with him for yet another year. For me I see a floor of around 600 yards for Barber and still around 8-10 TDs but his upside comes from knowing that JJ has a penchant for missing games.

 
pwtrash said:
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity. My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
pwtrash said:
My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think.
Click to expand...
This is consistent with what I (and many others saw) and what Julius said this offseason (he compared himself to a robot). :lmao:

 
pwtrash said:
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity.

My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.

It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.

I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.

90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber
Click to expand...
but only 25% of Barbers carries and 27% of his yardage came on 3rd downs, 47% were on 1st down and 25% were on 2nd down and 3% were on 4th down.i am not a cowboy homer in the least but all i tend to hear is that JJ got the raw end of the stick and barber had it easy but when you look at what BOTH runners did on 1st downs it has to make you scratch your head:

JJ on 1st downs: 179carries 679yards 3.8ypc 2TDs

Barber on 1st downs: 63carries 296yards 4.7ypc 7TDs

What I dont have at my disposal is how many short yardage 1st down goal to go carries barber had...but if that was significant than that really says volumes about the 4.7ypc...and if there werent many then it says volumes about the 4.7 vs JJs 3.8

 
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Keg said:
pwtrash said:
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity.

My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.

It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.

I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.

90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber
Click to expand...
but only 25% of Barbers carries and 27% of his yardage came on 3rd downs, 47% were on 1st down and 25% were on 2nd down and 3% were on 4th down.i am not a cowboy homer in the least but all i tend to hear is that JJ got the raw end of the stick and barber had it easy but when you look at what BOTH runners did on 1st downs it has to make you scratch your head:

JJ on 1st downs: 179carries 679yards 3.8ypc 2TDs

Barber on 1st downs: 63carries 296yards 4.7ypc 7TDs

What I dont have at my disposal is how many short yardage 1st down goal to go carries barber had...but if that was significant than that really says volumes about the 4.7ypc...and if there werent many then it says volumes about the 4.7 vs JJs 3.8
Click to expand...
Yes but 1st down carry in the 2 minute Drill is still a 1st down carry. Those carries are usually draws and those plays are being run against a nickel D. I honestly think JJ is very under valued this year. JJ did have more carries. Carries = opportunity.
 
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I have no idea how this season will turn out, with regards to the carries being split between Jones and MBIII. As was eluded to above, I think MBIII will go too high in most drafts. JJ could easily slide further than he should in many drafts.

I think the shark play is to avoid MBIII, because he'll almost certainly be taken higher than he should be, and keep an eye on JJ. If JJ falls far enough, he could represent very good value, and at worst, he'll be a good RB bye week filler.

 
Fodasme69 said:
Keg said:
pwtrash said:
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity.

My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.

It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.

I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.

90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber
Click to expand...
but only 25% of Barbers carries and 27% of his yardage came on 3rd downs, 47% were on 1st down and 25% were on 2nd down and 3% were on 4th down.i am not a cowboy homer in the least but all i tend to hear is that JJ got the raw end of the stick and barber had it easy but when you look at what BOTH runners did on 1st downs it has to make you scratch your head:

JJ on 1st downs: 179carries 679yards 3.8ypc 2TDs

Barber on 1st downs: 63carries 296yards 4.7ypc 7TDs

What I dont have at my disposal is how many short yardage 1st down goal to go carries barber had...but if that was significant than that really says volumes about the 4.7ypc...and if there werent many then it says volumes about the 4.7 vs JJs 3.8
Click to expand...
Yes but 1st down carry in the 2 minute Drill is still a 1st down carry. Those carries are usually draws and those plays are being run against a nickel D. I honestly think JJ is very under valued this year. JJ did have more carries. Carries = opportunity.
Click to expand...
i went thru the entire season and checked and this is what i found:Barber had 8 carries on 1st down with 2 mins or less on the clock for a total of 40 yards

1st-10=11yrds

1st-4=0yrds

1st-10=5yrds

1st-10=6yrds

1st-5=0yrds

1st-10=10yrds

1st-10=7yrds

1st-10=1yrd

doesnt seem like the run production you would get running against a nickle d when half of the carries went for 5yrds or less

next with regards to Barbers 4.7ypc on 1st down:

he had 13 1st and goal carries for a total of 30 yards and 7TDs

that means that on his other 50 1st down carries he averaged 5.32ypc which is very impressive and before anyone says he did his damage with less then 2mins in a half to go thats not true because on those types of 1st down carries he only averaged 5.0ypc

i guess my biggest problem with barber is the perception that people are putting forth that he got all his yards on obvious passing downs,or when the cowgirls had a lead etc...but when you dig into the numbers they dont show that picture at all...what i see is a back that just flat out performed.

 
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keg's analysis is really good stuff to consider :thumbsup:

statistics don't lie only people who use them and keg's data seems to point to the contrarian view that barber gets his #s vs "softer defenses." but, many have pointed out that barber appears to be the more talented back. keg's data supports this...one thing i read somewhere (sorry no link) is that the offensive system under philips is changing and may suit JJ's style more (not necessarily more than barbers, but that his style didn't fit well with parcells and that this may have hindered his production). who knows at this point.

as of now, MB3 is going to early for my likes given a RBBC in dallas. i'll watch preseason closely and maybe target JJ because of his value (?RB3/bye week filler)

 
A thing I was surprised to see, considering how much of Barber's value was derived from touchdowns last year, is that Barber hastn't actually been that hot around the goal line, converting only 38% of the time, making him 40th on the list of backs with 10 or more goal line carries over the last 3 years. He had a better percentage last year, so maybe the high amount of TDs will continue, but that still makes me leery of him given his ADP.

 
Gr00vus said:
A thing I was surprised to see, considering how much of Barber's value was derived from touchdowns last year, is that Barber hastn't actually been that hot around the goal line, converting only 38% of the time, making him 40th on the list of backs with 10 or more goal line carries over the last 3 years. He had a better percentage last year, so maybe the high amount of TDs will continue, but that still makes me leery of him given his ADP.
Click to expand...
all i know is that he did convert on 7 of 13 opportunities where he carried the ball on 1st and goal....what I dont know is how many RBs are GL backs that get those carries from more then 2 yards out...it wouldnt be hard for a few carries to sku the %'s
 
Rushmore said:
pwtrash said:
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity. My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
Click to expand...
Really? It sounds bias to me. He's found plenty of excuses for Jones, from Parcells to draws, while taking any credit from Barber. I cannot believe people don't see clearly that Barber is the better back. Just watch them.Whether that means Phillips will play him more remains to be seen, and that's really the only thing to try to figure out here. But suggesting Julius Jones to be the better RB is silly to me...all the while in the face of statistics that show otherwise, not that you even need them in this case.
 
Sea Leopard of Death said:
Rushmore said:
pwtrash said:
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity. My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Really? It sounds bias to me. He's found plenty of excuses for Jones, from Parcells to draws, while taking any credit from Barber. I cannot believe people don't see clearly that Barber is the better back. Just watch them.Whether that means Phillips will play him more remains to be seen, and that's really the only thing to try to figure out here. But suggesting Julius Jones to be the better RB is silly to me...all the while in the face of statistics that show otherwise, not that you even need them in this case.
Click to expand...
I'm not trying to be overly defensive here, but I did post reasons/excuses other than "Jones is the better back, just watch them". If last year's statistics are the key to this year's performance, why do we even bother discussing this? A calculator could do a better job. My argument is that so far in his career, Barber has shown none of the ability that Jones did in his rookie year, either statistically or visibly. The question is whether or not Jones' rookie year was a fluke, and if not, why not. Barber is a talented back. I just have never seen from him the things I've seen from rookie Jones, and I think that's the biggest Jones question as it affects Barber (other than coaching preference) - "which is the real Jones?" I gave reasons why I think the rookie Jones is the real Jones, and rookie Jones outshines Barber pretty heavily. It's one thing to average 4.6 yards as a 3rd down back. It's another to average >4 yards when you get the ball >30 times a game & the defense is keyed to stopping you. It's another thing to do that 3 times in a season. He did have a couple of stinkers that season, but >800 rushing yards in half a season is pretty nice. (I tried to give reasons already why I don't think Barber's body of work demonstrates any ability to handle an every down load.) Statistics do not always tell the whole truth going forward into a new season, particularly with TD's, particularly with a coaching change. (Caveat - I play in a very heavy performance league, so Barber did outperform Jones in our league last year, but even then only slightly.) Last night's game - while one dumb preseason game - is a case in point. Barber had better statistics, and against the second team Colts defense had a 16 yard run. But, if you watched the game, you saw the problem. At the end of the first drive, he was consistently brought down by the first guy that touched him, once in the backfield. He got the ball exclusively inside the 20 - I think he had 4 touches - and got nothing. He had a swing pass with a 15 yard touchdown if he gets past the CB. The CB stopped him in the backfield with an ankle tackle. It wasn't until the second quarter that he started doing something, and that was primarily because he got the 3rd down run on 3rd & long, had a nice run on 2nd and long, had the draw, and an outlet pass. (He did make a great move in the open field on that catch, though - it was the RB play of the game.) Jones, while he was in, looked very different to me from last year, picking his holes and running to daylight. Notice that his average was similar to Barber's, but was against the first team defense. Surprisingly, he played 3rd down in the first quarter outside the 20. Of course, this is just one meaningless game (and Barber came in once the ball moved over the 20). Now after saying all that, I can only imagine the reply I'll get mid-season when Barber's the full time back and Jones is relegated to mop-up duty! ;-)Yep, we're all biased, I suspect. I'm trying to make mine up front and explain mine as clearly as possible.
 
pwtrash said:
Sea Leopard of Death said:
Rushmore said:
pwtrash said:
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity. My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
Click to expand...
Really? It sounds bias to me. He's found plenty of excuses for Jones, from Parcells to draws, while taking any credit from Barber. I cannot believe people don't see clearly that Barber is the better back. Just watch them.Whether that means Phillips will play him more remains to be seen, and that's really the only thing to try to figure out here. But suggesting Julius Jones to be the better RB is silly to me...all the while in the face of statistics that show otherwise, not that you even need them in this case.
Click to expand...
I'm not trying to be overly defensive here, but I did post reasons/excuses other than "Jones is the better back, just watch them". If last year's statistics are the key to this year's performance, why do we even bother discussing this? A calculator could do a better job. My argument is that so far in his career, Barber has shown none of the ability that Jones did in his rookie year, either statistically or visibly. The question is whether or not Jones' rookie year was a fluke, and if not, why not. Barber is a talented back. I just have never seen from him the things I've seen from rookie Jones, and I think that's the biggest Jones question as it affects Barber (other than coaching preference) - "which is the real Jones?" I gave reasons why I think the rookie Jones is the real Jones, and rookie Jones outshines Barber pretty heavily. It's one thing to average 4.6 yards as a 3rd down back. It's another to average >4 yards when you get the ball >30 times a game & the defense is keyed to stopping you. It's another thing to do that 3 times in a season. He did have a couple of stinkers that season, but >800 rushing yards in half a season is pretty nice. (I tried to give reasons already why I don't think Barber's body of work demonstrates any ability to handle an every down load.) Statistics do not always tell the whole truth going forward into a new season, particularly with TD's, particularly with a coaching change. (Caveat - I play in a very heavy performance league, so Barber did outperform Jones in our league last year, but even then only slightly.) Last night's game - while one dumb preseason game - is a case in point. Barber had better statistics, and against the second team Colts defense had a 16 yard run. But, if you watched the game, you saw the problem. At the end of the first drive, he was consistently brought down by the first guy that touched him, once in the backfield. He got the ball exclusively inside the 20 - I think he had 4 touches - and got nothing. He had a swing pass with a 15 yard touchdown if he gets past the CB. The CB stopped him in the backfield with an ankle tackle. It wasn't until the second quarter that he started doing something, and that was primarily because he got the 3rd down run on 3rd & long, had a nice run on 2nd and long, had the draw, and an outlet pass. (He did make a great move in the open field on that catch, though - it was the RB play of the game.) Jones, while he was in, looked very different to me from last year, picking his holes and running to daylight. Notice that his average was similar to Barber's, but was against the first team defense. Surprisingly, he played 3rd down in the first quarter outside the 20. Of course, this is just one meaningless game (and Barber came in once the ball moved over the 20). Now after saying all that, I can only imagine the reply I'll get mid-season when Barber's the full time back and Jones is relegated to mop-up duty! ;-)Yep, we're all biased, I suspect. I'm trying to make mine up front and explain mine as clearly as possible.
Click to expand...
pwtrash...THANK YOU! I find it absurd that people can look at anything beyond JJ's rookie year and think that he's been given a fair chance to prove himself. I try to stay out of this arguement because there are so many MBIII sack swingers out there....but yeah, I agree 100% with your assessment.
 
(Rotoworld) Marion Barber has switched agents to Drew Rosenhaus.Impact: Barber had been in search of new representation for the last few weeks. Rosenhaus already plans to talk to Dallas' front office about an extension for his new client. Barber can be a restricted free agent after the year.
Click to expand...
Anyone think this would have any impact on him becoming a starter next year? Will Rosenhaus push for him to get starter $$$ in Dallas or somewhere else? With rumors of Dallas selecting Mcfadden with their top pick next year, maybe this is a good thing for MB3 owners?or is it a non-story?
 
broncofan13000 said:
(Rotoworld) Marion Barber has switched agents to Drew Rosenhaus.Impact: Barber had been in search of new representation for the last few weeks. Rosenhaus already plans to talk to Dallas' front office about an extension for his new client. Barber can be a restricted free agent after the year.
Click to expand...
Anyone think this would have any impact on him becoming a starter next year? Will Rosenhaus push for him to get starter $$$ in Dallas or somewhere else? With rumors of Dallas selecting Mcfadden with their top pick next year, maybe this is a good thing for MB3 owners?or is it a non-story?
Click to expand...
I think if I remember right Dallas did make a draft day trade (cleveland?) so I'm assuming that you believe the browns will be 1 of the 3 worst teams in the league, bc I'd say McFadden is a surefire Top 3-5 pick. Otherwise, don't know how they'd get him.Going on that story though, wouldn't they want to limit Barber's production so he gets less FA interest?!? I don't see how that would help him, unless they would want to keep MB3 and cut JJ, and even then, I don't think that really makes sense.
 
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pwtrash said:
Sea Leopard of Death said:
Rushmore said:
pwtrash said:
As a Lifer Cowboys fan and a three-year owner of Jones, I've watched this situation pretty intently (and am likely also very biased, no matter how much I might like to try to be objective). During his rookie year, Julius Jones was a madman when he was healthy. He had great speed and he complimented that with pretty good vision, as well as nice elusiveness and creativity. In 7 starts, he put up over 800 yards, with three games at 149 or more. As he spent more time under Parcells, though, Jones' strengths were gradually minimized, so that by last year, all he did was go where the play was drawn up to go. Given that the Cowboys' run blocking was pretty weak, this meant that he went from creating space during his first year, to running into darkness last year. Parcells is an incredibly risk-averse coach. He took away the main strength of the 3-4 defense - unpredictability - in order to try to minimize big plays. Likewise, in the running game, losing 2 yards 10 times a season is not worth the benefits of an extra yard per carry average overall, with several big runs. He's the sort of coach that would sit Barry Sanders (not that Jones will ever be in Sanders' league). Parcells does not appreciate creativity.

My frustration with Barber (as a Jones owner) last year wasn't that he stole touchdowns - it's that Jones was always in on the predictable running plays, and Barber got the draws & the runs on third and long. Barber is stronger, no doubt, but Jones is a better overall back through his body of work. His numbers were worse last year, but if you watched all the games, you saw a very different Julius than the previous years, and it was the culmination of an annual progression - run to where the play is drawn up. Do not think. He rarely had open space. Even with those constraints, he broke bigger plays than Barber.

It *sounds* like things have changed, and Jones is being given the freedom he had his rookie year. Phillips does not seem predisposed toward Barber the way Parcells did.

I think the year will start 60-40, with Barber getting the 40, but unless injury or turnovers occur, Jones is likely to demonstrate his superior game-breaking ability and will prove himself to be too valuable to take off the field in most cases, and the season will end closer to 80-20. I also think the overall number of team carries will decrease. My guess is that Barber will end up with about 5-6 carries a game and a couple of targets, while still getting the scores. The best argument I can think of for Barber is the improved offensive line, which should get a good push, which plays to his strengths - if he gets a couple of yards steam, he can do a lot more damage than Jones. On the other hand, if that push actually opens up a hole, I would expect Jones to better exploit it. I also expect Barber to have a better average, as Jones continues to get the runs on 1st and 10 and Barber continues to get the draws.

90-450-10, 30-200-1 for Barber
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:o
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Really? It sounds bias to me. He's found plenty of excuses for Jones, from Parcells to draws, while taking any credit from Barber. I cannot believe people don't see clearly that Barber is the better back. Just watch them.Whether that means Phillips will play him more remains to be seen, and that's really the only thing to try to figure out here. But suggesting Julius Jones to be the better RB is silly to me...all the while in the face of statistics that show otherwise, not that you even need them in this case.
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I'm not trying to be overly defensive here, but I did post reasons/excuses other than "Jones is the better back, just watch them". If last year's statistics are the key to this year's performance, why do we even bother discussing this? A calculator could do a better job. My argument is that so far in his career, Barber has shown none of the ability that Jones did in his rookie year, either statistically or visibly.
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I stopped here. Seriously, are you kidding? You're hanging your hat on rookie years? You make my point again, which is your opinion is completely biased for whatever reason. You really think that is more relevant than the two of them running for the same team last year? PLEASE. Go find anybody here who is going to put more weight on your selective statistics, which are false to begin with :rolleyes: , of rookie years over what each player did last year. I'll wait. Really, see if you can find someone to share your side in that absurd argument.But the best part is this:

My argument is that so far in his career, Barber has shown none of the ability that Jones did in his rookie year, either statistically or visibly.
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Oh really? Jones rookie year saw him average 4.2 YPC. Barber averaged a whopping 4.8 last year. :lmao: Those are statistics right?
 
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What do you see as Barber's future after this year? I am debating keeping him and am curious if others see him moving to another team or sticking with Dallas, especially now that he has signed with Drew Rosenhaus.

 
Oh really? Jones rookie year saw him average 4.2 YPC. Barber averaged a whopping 4.8 last year. Those are statistics right?

===============================

MB3 runs draw plays against nickel defenses. I would assume his YPC would be high.

Why does no one "get" this.

 
Bankerguy said:
Oh really? Jones rookie year saw him average 4.2 YPC. Barber averaged a whopping 4.8 last year. Those are statistics right? ===============================MB3 runs draw plays against nickel defenses. I would assume his YPC would be high.Why does no one "get" this.
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Bankerguy....its ok to be wrong.
 
The Scientist said:
Bankerguy said:
Oh really? Jones rookie year saw him average 4.2 YPC. Barber averaged a whopping 4.8 last year. Those are statistics right? ===============================MB3 runs draw plays against nickel defenses. I would assume his YPC would be high.Why does no one "get" this.
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Bankerguy....its ok to be wrong.
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Wrong about what? MB3 will the have better fantasy numbers. The gap will narrow this year though.I just laugh at everyone who thinks its because MB3 is the next coming of Walter. He is a barely above RB who does well in certain situations and was given plenty of opportunities. He had a near perfect year from an opportunity point of view.I love the flack I get over this topic.
 
This whole discussion of who is the better back is useless. All that matters is oportunity and production. MB3 has had better production with his oportunities so far. If JJ were the better goal line back he'd get the carries there. If MB3 were better between the twenties he'd get the carries there. This year should be just like last year for JJ and MB3. Until they are on seperate teams or one goes down with an injury, "the point is moot".

I think they are both FA after this year so hopefully this is the last year of this menusha!

FYI...By my leagues scoring system MB3 finished as the # 11 RB and 30th overall. JJ finished # 30 and #124 in 2006.

 
Jack Burton said:
This whole discussion of who is the better back is useless. All that matters is oportunity and production. MB3 has had better production with his oportunities so far. If JJ were the better goal line back he'd get the carries there. If MB3 were better between the twenties he'd get the carries there. This year should be just like last year for JJ and MB3. Until they are on seperate teams or one goes down with an injury, "the point is moot". I think they are both FA after this year so hopefully this is the last year of this menusha!FYI...By my leagues scoring system MB3 finished as the # 11 RB and 30th overall. JJ finished # 30 and #124 in 2006.
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...and as most ADP will show you, they will be drafted that way. I just tend to believe that JJ is the value play this year. I find hard to believe MB3 can duplicate his numbers from last year. Especially on the TD front.
 
Bankerguy said:
...and as most ADP will show you, they will be drafted that way. I just tend to believe that JJ is the value play this year. I find hard to believe MB3 can duplicate his numbers from last year. Especially on the TD front.
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Hmmm Let's look at this.Romo full time starter with more experienceTO HealthyCrayton is an upgrade if Glenn can't goWade hasn't touched the OFF side of thingsGarrett is keeping the running game as is with a deep ball philosophy in the passing game.Nothing has changed except for the better, especially the line.MBIII actually should hit at min 14 tds total and "could" hit 18+ if it all clicks with the deep passing game.
 
Bankerguy said:
Jack Burton said:
This whole discussion of who is the better back is useless. All that matters is oportunity and production. MB3 has had better production with his oportunities so far. If JJ were the better goal line back he'd get the carries there. If MB3 were better between the twenties he'd get the carries there. This year should be just like last year for JJ and MB3. Until they are on seperate teams or one goes down with an injury, "the point is moot". I think they are both FA after this year so hopefully this is the last year of this menusha!FYI...By my leagues scoring system MB3 finished as the # 11 RB and 30th overall. JJ finished # 30 and #124 in 2006.
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...and as most ADP will show you, they will be drafted that way. I just tend to believe that JJ is the value play this year. I find hard to believe MB3 can duplicate his numbers from last year. Especially on the TD front.
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Yeah well, I guess it all depends on what you think will happen. Personally I believe that MB3 can duplicate last year and he would absolutely flourish as the starter. And if I could draft a top fifteen RB who has the potential to get inside the top ten, around 45-50 ( adp 48), that to me is the real value play.
 
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