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Player Spotlight: Cadillac Williams (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Cadillac Williams, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Cadillac Williams Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
Caddy is flying waaay under the radar. I would expect, barring injury, he'll be given 300 carries and get another 35-40 catches. The bucs haven't been able to get him in the end-zone often, but that should get a little better with the upgrades they made to the line and Garcia at QB.

300 carries

1170 yards rushing

6 TDs rushing

35 receptions

235 yards recieving

1 TD recieving

 
Caddy will benefit from a improved O-Line and QB play (Garcia is old but will still make things happen in Chucky's offense-- he's definitely a step up from the rookie play of Gradkowski last season!) With more men having to respect the pass it leaves less in the box stuffing the run. Also, last year TB played a killer schedule with regards to run-stopping Defenses, this year looks to lighten up the pressure a little. Add all that to a healthier Carnell and it can't help but to be a better year. He's not going to break into the top 5 RB class, but with a little luck the top 10 is possible, and the top 20 likely.

Numbers:

280 Rushes for 1100 yards and 9 TDs

25 Receptions for 200 yards and 1 TD

and most importantly: 16 games started

 
Cadillac oozes talent, too bad the rest of the team doesn't. With Chris Simms and Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, Caddy was the only one the defenses would respect. Garcia instantly adds credibility to that passing game. The offensive line was horrid last year. Most anyone would have a hard time getting through the lack of holes produced by the Tampa unit. They made some moves, brought in some better lineman, and while it might not be the b iggest of upgrades, it certainly is an upgrade. Lastly, Gruden loves to use him. He has no problem giving the kid 25-30 carries in any given week. If the rest of the team stops sucking and he stays healthy, he can be a really good running back. The early fluff pieces have indicated he's working to improve his receiving, might not be a great receiver, but anything help.

14 games

308 carries

1324 yards

7 tds

34 receptions

235 receiving yards

 
I dont know if Cadillac is just not as good as I thought he would be or if TB just is a poor offensive team, I dont care. Cadillac will not put up good numbers this year. They have a QB who doesnt throw the deep ball meaning more 8-9 man fronts, they have an aging WR in Galloway and a bad WR2 in Clayton, and Alstott is still there to steal goalline carries. Cadillac is nothing more than a RB3 IMO. Ill most likely pass. Gruden has said hed like to give him 60 rec this year and Ill believe it when I see it. Ill be kind and give him 30 rec.

280 att, 1000 yds, 5 tds, 30 rec, 250 yds, 0 tds

 
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Im expecting a breakout year out of caddy. The offensive line will be improved and he'll be running behind a pure fullback rather than Alstott. I still dont see him getting into the endzone as often as he could especially if we get into the redzone, but as far as yardage and carries I expect he should be near his rookie year totals.

 
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Tampa Bay was one of the worst offenses in the league last year. A lot of that was because they were starting a QB that was a rookie....and a 6th round pick. I look for their offense to move to the middle of the pack this year. This should help Cadillac's value somewhat. Currently he is being drafted in the 3rd-4th rounds in redraft leagues. To be able to draft a RB that will get 300+ carries in the 3rd or 4th round presents great value. He will be a decent RB#2 this year IMO.

Carries 320, yards 1230, TD's 7

 
JimboJim said:
Caddy is flying waaay under the radar.
Click to expand...
? What do you call flying under the radar - I see him going too high if anything as a fairly popular RB2 pick.Garcia is an upgrade but that's not saying much; likewise for the minor OL tweaks. He couldn't do any worse barring injury, but I don't see much more than sneaking over the the 1000 mark with a few TDs. I want better for my RB2.
 
BigRed said:
JimboJim said:
Caddy is flying waaay under the radar.
Click to expand...
? What do you call flying under the radar - I see him going too high if anything as a fairly popular RB2 pick.Garcia is an upgrade but that's not saying much; likewise for the minor OL tweaks. He couldn't do any worse barring injury, but I don't see much more than sneaking over the the 1000 mark with a few TDs. I want better for my RB2.
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:unsure: How is Garcia a big improvement? Sure he is a better passer but he cant throw the deep ball to save his life. Remember Philly changed to a running offense after McNabb got hurt. In other words Garcia wont take any of the pressure off of Caddy that he saw last year. Teams will still be gunning for him the same. Garcia does not strike fear in the hearts of opponents.
 
With another year of experience for Joseph & Trueblood, the signing of Pettigut (sp?), and the drafting of Sears, I see the o-line vastly improving over '07 + '08.

Garcia may be past his prime, but he'll keep defenses honest a lot moreso than Gradkowski.

ETA:

Garica in last 7 games (really just 6 excluding ATL game) - 61.70% completion rate, 10 TDs, 2 Ints

Gradkowski in 11 games - 53.96% completion rate, 9 TDs, 9 Ints

I'm not sure how, with the problems TB had last year, that Caddy can go from ROY and a pre-season top 10 RB to a borderline RB2 or RB3. I think it's a little too soon to throw the towel in and I see him rebounding to a pretty solid year:

300 carries for 1200 yds w/ 7 TDs

35 receptions for 250 yds and 2 TDs

 
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shadyridr said:
BigRed said:
JimboJim said:
Caddy is flying waaay under the radar.
Click to expand...
? What do you call flying under the radar - I see him going too high if anything as a fairly popular RB2 pick.Garcia is an upgrade but that's not saying much; likewise for the minor OL tweaks. He couldn't do any worse barring injury, but I don't see much more than sneaking over the the 1000 mark with a few TDs. I want better for my RB2.
Click to expand...
:shrug: How is Garcia a big improvement? Sure he is a better passer but he cant throw the deep ball to save his life. Remember Philly changed to a running offense after McNabb got hurt. In other words Garcia wont take any of the pressure off of Caddy that he saw last year. Teams will still be gunning for him the same. Garcia does not strike fear in the hearts of opponents.
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This is the same guy that had a first round ADP heading into last season. With the line and QB upgrades, how could he not improve on last year's numbers? Say what you want about Garcia, but you'd be lying if you said he wasn't better than the Simms/Gradkowski combo they had last season.Barring injury, you're looking at a 300+ touch RB with an ADP of 3.11; seems like a bargain to me.If he gets 300 total tocuhes, 6 TDs is only a TD every 50 tocuhes... most RBs average far more than a score once every 50 touches.I'd much rather take a chance on a guy like Caddy that I know will get a lot of work over a Jacobs/Peterson/McAllister/DeAngelo that might be a part-time player.
 
shadyridr said:
BigRed said:
JimboJim said:
Caddy is flying waaay under the radar.
Click to expand...
? What do you call flying under the radar - I see him going too high if anything as a fairly popular RB2 pick.Garcia is an upgrade but that's not saying much; likewise for the minor OL tweaks.

He couldn't do any worse barring injury, but I don't see much more than sneaking over the the 1000 mark with a few TDs. I want better for my RB2.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: How is Garcia a big improvement? Sure he is a better passer but he cant throw the deep ball to save his life. Remember Philly changed to a running offense after McNabb got hurt. In other words Garcia wont take any of the pressure off of Caddy that he saw last year. Teams will still be gunning for him the same. Garcia does not strike fear in the hearts of opponents.
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He avg. over 200 yards a game and a td 1/2. Throughout the year that's about 3200 yards and 24 td's. I wouldn't say that indicating a team went to a run first offense. They might not have passed as much but I think it was just alittle more balanced. I think Garcia is a nice upgrade for TB and Caddy.
 
Three things held Caddy back last year: Injuries, a bad offense/O-line, and a tough schedule.

He seems to be healthy now. (who knows what the future holds...)

The Bucs have a capable QB, and have addressed their offensive line, and I think it will be improve to be average, with upside.

The biggest thing that will help a healthy Cadillac Williams is the Bucs' schedule.... it's early yet, but it looks extremely favorable.

I am bullish on Cadillac this year.

300 carries, 1230 yards (4.1 ypc - same as rookie season)

36 catches, 250 yards (slight improvement over last year)

8 total TDs

If he remains healthy, I see very good upside, especially considering his current ranking.

 
1340 rushing

29 receptions, 275 receiving

9 Total TDs

A) Garcia really gives this team an offensive boost and keeps the opposing defenses more honest

B) There is nowhere to go but up for the offensive line

C) Cadillac enters typical prime of an elite runnigback's career

 
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He very well could be one of the biggest steals of Draft this year. Last season the problems began IMO with the O-line followed by the QB play. Both issues seem to be resolved. The Bucs continued to address the offensive line this year through the draft and aquired a leader and vet in Petigout. Jeff Garcia while not a premier QB, is more than serviceable and is a large upgrade from Simms/Gradkowski. A smaller addition some may not be considering is the acquisition of Jerramy Stevens. Alex smith is out of opportunities and Stevens provides a faster and bigger target at TE.

Now about Carnell. His ADP going into this year took a large hit however after a season of meeting defenders at the hand-off. As a result 75% off his believers jumped off the bus confused about who the culprit was. Carnell once upon a time was ROY and I have no reason to believe he lost his mojo all the sudden.

Heres to Caddy's stud status coming out party.

320 carries for 1500 yards and 9 TDs

40 catches for 420 yards and 2 TDs

 
LHUCKS said:
1340 rushing29 receptions, 275 receiving9 Total TDsA) Garcia really gives this team an offensive boost and keeps the opposing defenses more honestB) There is nowhere to go but up for the offensive lineC) Cadillac enters typical prime of an elite runnigback's career
Click to expand...
I must ask . . .Is Williams "elite?"I know we danced this dance last year and while I concur that he should do better, I am not quite sure I would call him an elite back.Yes, there were things that led to him underperforming, but he's now played two seasons and has a 3.8 ypc with an average of 80 yards from scrimmage a game.He's now produced 2253 yards from scrimmage in two seasons. There have been 59 RB that have posted that many yards over their first two seasons. He's now amassed 1976 rushing yards . . . 42 backs have accomplished that. Of RB through two seasons with at least 1500 rushing yards, Caddy ranks 76th in ypc. And his 7 TD in 565 touches leaves a lot to be desired. Of the 101 RB that had at least 400 touches in their first two seasons, Caddy ranks 97th in total TD.In terms of fantasy value, he may be a decent investment with an ADP of 31 overall based primarily on the workload he should get. But IMO he's a long way from being an elite back and if I drafted him and got midrange RB2 value out of him I would dance a jig.
 
David Yudkin said:
I must ask . . .Is Williams "elite?"
Click to expand...
depends how you define elite, drafted in the top 10 and one of the better rookie rushing seasons in NFL history qualifies him as an elite talent IMHO...but I guess it's where you draw the line.
David Yudkin said:
but he's now played two seasons and has a 3.8 ypc with an average of 80 yards from scrimmage a game.
Click to expand...
O-line and QB play has generally been horrendous...put him in most other situations and we wouldn't be having this conversation.
David Yudkin said:
He's now produced 2253 yards from scrimmage in two seasons. There have been 59 RB that have posted that many yards over their first two seasons.
Click to expand...
quite impressive all things considered
 
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LHUCKS said:
David Yudkin said:
I must ask . . .Is Williams "elite?"
Click to expand...
depends how you define elite, drafted in the top 10 and one of the better rookie rushing seasons in NFL history qualifies him as an elite talent IMHO...but I guess it's where you draw the line.
David Yudkin said:
but he's now played two seasons and has a 3.8 ypc with an average of 80 yards from scrimmage a game.
Click to expand...
O-line and QB play has generally been horendous...put him in most other situations and we wouldn't be having this conversation.
David Yudkin said:
He's now produced 2253 yards from scrimmage in two seasons. There have been 59 RB that have posted that many yards over their first two seasons.
Click to expand...
quite impressive all things considered
Click to expand...
I could care less where a guy was drafted. He ranks 96th in fantasy points scored by a RB after two seasons. IMO, that's the definition of meh.I'm not saying he can't turn things around, but there have been other elite backs that stepped into bad situations and still were very productive.
 
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David Yudkin said:
LHUCKS said:
David Yudkin said:
I must ask . . .

Is Williams "elite?"
Click to expand...
depends how you define elite, drafted in the top 10 and one of the better rookie rushing seasons in NFL history qualifies him as an elite talent IMHO...but I guess it's where you draw the line.
David Yudkin said:
but he's now played two seasons and has a 3.8 ypc with an average of 80 yards from scrimmage a game.
Click to expand...
O-line and QB play has generally been horendous...put him in most other situations and we wouldn't be having this conversation.
David Yudkin said:
He's now produced 2253 yards from scrimmage in two seasons. There have been 59 RB that have posted that many yards over their first two seasons.
Click to expand...
quite impressive all things considered
Click to expand...
I could care less where a guy was drafted. He ranks 96th in fantasy points scored by a RB after two seasons. IMO, that's the definition of meh.I'm not saying he can't turn things around, but there have been other elite backs that stepped into bad situations and still were very productive.
Click to expand...
I can't think of very many RBs who could have produced behind an OLine with two rookies starting AND with Bruce Gradkowski as their QB. That offense was historically bad.I don't think you're giving anywhere near enough credit to how bad Caddy's circumstances where last year. I'll say it again. He had BRUCE GRADKOWSKI as his QB. And two rookies on the line and a LG who was out most of the season.

Calling him 'meh' based on all of that is ridiculous. I don't care where any of you people draft him, but that's not a fair knock on him at all.

 
Capella said:
David Yudkin said:
LHUCKS said:
David Yudkin said:
I must ask . . .

Is Williams "elite?"
Click to expand...
depends how you define elite, drafted in the top 10 and one of the better rookie rushing seasons in NFL history qualifies him as an elite talent IMHO...but I guess it's where you draw the line.
David Yudkin said:
but he's now played two seasons and has a 3.8 ypc with an average of 80 yards from scrimmage a game.
Click to expand...
O-line and QB play has generally been horendous...put him in most other situations and we wouldn't be having this conversation.
David Yudkin said:
He's now produced 2253 yards from scrimmage in two seasons. There have been 59 RB that have posted that many yards over their first two seasons.
Click to expand...
quite impressive all things considered
Click to expand...
I could care less where a guy was drafted. He ranks 96th in fantasy points scored by a RB after two seasons. IMO, that's the definition of meh.I'm not saying he can't turn things around, but there have been other elite backs that stepped into bad situations and still were very productive.
Click to expand...
I can't think of very many RBs who could have produced behind an OLine with two rookies starting AND with Bruce Gradkowski as their QB. That offense was historically bad.I don't think you're giving anywhere near enough credit to how bad Caddy's circumstances where last year. I'll say it again. He had BRUCE GRADKOWSKI as his QB. And two rookies on the line and a LG who was out most of the season.

Calling him 'meh' based on all of that is ridiculous. I don't care where any of you people draft him, but that's not a fair knock on him at all.
Click to expand...
As examples of elite backs . . .2000 Chargers had a 3.0 team ypc and 1062 rushing yards. They added LT and ran much better with Doug Flutie at QB. The next year they switched to Drew Brees who had never played before. By then they were up to a 4.6 yeam ypc.

1990 Cowboys had a statisically terrible Troy Aikman and a rookie Emmitt Smith. Aikmen did very little the next year too (and the team had not loaded up on Pro Bowl lineman at the time either) and Emmitt had 1500+ yards.

1989 Lions had a 3.1 or 3.2 team ypc and added Barry Sanders and Bob Gagliano at QB (who?). Sanders still had almost 1500 rushing yards.

Sure, setting the bar at three of the best rushers in history is a bit unfair, but the fact of the matter is that there have been guys that were great even if the supporting cast was putrid.

I'm willing to give Caddy a mulligan for last year, but IMO he could have done better even given the slop he had . . . and maybe we'll see that this year.

 
Just to stir the pot, is the TB offense that much of an upgrade over that of CLE or DET where Garcia was extremely unimpressive? The Bucs passing totals were bottom 10 in 2005.

 
David Yudkin said:
Just to stir the pot, is the TB offense that much of an upgrade over that of CLE or DET where Garcia was extremely unimpressive? The Bucs passing totals were bottom 10 in 2005.
Click to expand...
Exactly they got the same crappy WRs, average TEs, and Im just not seeing these huge improvements in the OL everyone else is.
 
shadyridr said:
and Im just not seeing these huge improvements in the OL everyone else is.
Click to expand...
they've spent a first-rd pick and two second-rd picks on the OL the past two years. what do you know about those guys that we don't? the OLine is going to be very much improved.
 
Capella said:
shadyridr said:
and Im just not seeing these huge improvements in the OL everyone else is.
Click to expand...
they've spent a first-rd pick and two second-rd picks on the OL the past two years. what do you know about those guys that we don't? the OLine is going to be very much improved.
Click to expand...
FFdork said:
A win again ov said:
I play in a league where you get 1 pt per 25 kick return yards and 1 pt per 20 punt return yardsIt doesnt do much just makes Wes Welker a WR3 type player.
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Right but this isn't for individual players, you get a team's entire return yardsage as part of your D/ST scoring.
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only reason I decided to keep him was the recent drafting of o-line and picking up Luke as well.
 
:lmao: I love how people think Luke Petigout is a huge improvement. Ive watched him a ton in NY. He isnt that good and hes coming off an injury. Oh and get used to all the penalties.
 
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for all of those predicting he will have 8-12 TDs next year, you realize he had ONE last year right? That passing game won't strike fear in defenses, he'll still see a lot of 8 man fronts, and will have another blah year IMO. I only had him in 1 dynasty league, and traded him and KWII for DeAngelo and Foster, and couldn't be happier. The Bucs are in a division where everyone seems to be getting better...except the Bucs.

 
Plus the Bucs have one of the best short yardage runners in NFL HISTORY in Mike Alstott. Yeah hes old and breaking down but he is still going to be used in that role.

 
shadyridr said:
Capella said:
shadyridr said:
:ph34r: How is Garcia a big improvement?
Click to expand...
are you kidding? do you know who played QB last year for the bucs?
Click to expand...
Garcia is definitely better than Gradkowski but his arm strength is still very poor. Teams will not respect the deep ball. Thats why IMO Garcia will not be a big improvement.
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Aren't we forgetting someone in this conversation??? Yes, that's right, Jake the Freakin' Snake Plummer!!! He's got the mobility. He's got the arm. He's even got the wins. He's going to be hiking down from the Rocky Mtns anyday now, all with his full beard and knappy hair in a mission to lift Gruden and the hapless Bucs to the NFC Championship... Plummer vs. Grossman- an instant classic.+- 8 1/2 int ... I'm going with the over... :lmao:

btw, 270 for 1200, 35 for 200, 8 TDs

 
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Cadillac Williams 5th overall pick in 2005 burst on the scene as a rookie and totaled 1178 rushing yards and 6 TDs in his first campaign. He stumbled mightily last year dropping from 4.1 ypc to 3.5 ypc. He increased his reception total from 20 to 30, but his TDs dropped from six to one.

It has already been emphasized that the offensive line play would be improved and teh QB play will definitely be improved over last season. Cadillac is in excellent shape and has been working even more on his pass catching skills. I look for him to be featured much more in the passing game in 07.

Even more important to his value this year than the improved offensive line and QB play is his fall from fantasy grace. According to MyFantasyLeague Draft Tracker, in 06 he was the 10th RB and taken at #11 overall. This year his current ADP is #31 overall and RB 21. I believe there is some serious value in driving the Caddy this year.

Caddilac Williams 270 carries 1160 yds 4.3 ypc and 45 receptions for 310 yds and 7 total TDs

 
shadyridr said:
I dont know if Cadillac is just not as good as I thought he would be or if TB just is a poor offensive team, I dont care. Cadillac will not put up good numbers this year. They have a QB who doesnt throw the deep ball meaning more 8-9 man fronts, they have an aging WR in Galloway and a bad WR2 in Clayton, and Alstott is still there to steal goalline carries. Cadillac is nothing more than a RB3 IMO. Ill most likely pass. Gruden has said hed like to give him 60 rec this year and Ill believe it when I see it. Ill be kind and give him 30 rec.280 att, 1000 yds, 5 tds, 30 rec, 250 yds, 0 tds
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This is pretty much what I'm predicting. Anywhere from 950-1050 yards, barring injury. His offense just isn't good.
 
cscmtp said:
for all of those predicting he will have 8-12 TDs next year, you realize he had ONE last year right? That passing game won't strike fear in defenses, he'll still see a lot of 8 man fronts, and will have another blah year IMO. I only had him in 1 dynasty league, and traded him and KWII for DeAngelo and Foster, and couldn't be happier. The Bucs are in a division where everyone seems to be getting better...except the Bucs.
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I really like the point that you brought up in regards to his one TD last season.He touched the ball 263 times last year, yet only scored once. That my friend, is a complete statistical anomoly and one reason I feel Williams is being highly undervauled this season. He burned a lot of people last year, myself included. But to project a scoring rate for this season based on his 1 TD last year is not taking the law of averages into factor.

For example, let's look at Keyshawn Johnson's career:

- He played 10 full seasons (one shortened due to team-suspension).

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had over 70 catches.

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had 4+ TDs.

- In 6 of those 10 seasons, he had 8+ TDs.

- His best season for catches and yards (106/1266), he only scored 1 TD.

The point I'm trying to make is that TDs for most players (exclude LT, Alexander, LJ...) are really the most violate factor in the equation. If a player gets his opportunities year in and year out, the majority of the time, the TDs will be there.

Using Dodd's current projections for the top 24 RBs, Caddy is slated to score once every 50 touches, the next closest players to that number are Edge, DeAngelo, McGahee and Brown, all falling into the 36-39 touch per score range.

Call me crazy, but I find it hard to believe that it's going to take Williams an extra 11-14 carries/receptions per score than the other players I listed.

 
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I still believe that Cadillac has the potential to be an elite NFL RB. He flashed serious potential early in 2005, then wore down (due IMO to his obscene workload the first few games) before bouncing back. Last year, the Bucs totally fell apart, and Cadillac himself was banged up. I'll give him a mulligan for last year, as I think that Garcia represents a major upgrade over Simms/Gradkowski, and I like the focus on the o-line this offseason. Cadillac still won't put up elite fantasy numbers, this year, anyway, but he will represent value if his current ADP remains steady. I think that he is a great buy low in dynasty/keeper leagues in addition to his value as a 3rd round RB2/RB3 in redraft leagues.

300 carries for 1200 yards, 35 catches for 245 yards, 7 total TDs

 
JimboJim said:
shadyridr said:
BigRed said:
JimboJim said:
Caddy is flying waaay under the radar.
Click to expand...
? What do you call flying under the radar - I see him going too high if anything as a fairly popular RB2 pick.Garcia is an upgrade but that's not saying much; likewise for the minor OL tweaks. He couldn't do any worse barring injury, but I don't see much more than sneaking over the the 1000 mark with a few TDs. I want better for my RB2.
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:shrug: How is Garcia a big improvement? Sure he is a better passer but he cant throw the deep ball to save his life. Remember Philly changed to a running offense after McNabb got hurt. In other words Garcia wont take any of the pressure off of Caddy that he saw last year. Teams will still be gunning for him the same. Garcia does not strike fear in the hearts of opponents.
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This is the same guy that had a first round ADP heading into last season. With the line and QB upgrades, how could he not improve on last year's numbers? Say what you want about Garcia, but you'd be lying if you said he wasn't better than the Simms/Gradkowski combo they had last season.Barring injury, you're looking at a 300+ touch RB with an ADP of 3.11; seems like a bargain to me.If he gets 300 total tocuhes, 6 TDs is only a TD every 50 tocuhes... most RBs average far more than a score once every 50 touches.I'd much rather take a chance on a guy like Caddy that I know will get a lot of work over a Jacobs/Peterson/McAllister/DeAngelo that might be a part-time player.
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Barring injury is the key thing. He is undersized for the NFL and has shown a tendency to get nicked up already. I see him sharing the ball with the other backs and getting hurt.900 yards, 6 TDs, 30 receptions for 270 yards.
 
JimboJim said:
If he gets 300 total tocuhes, 6 TDs is only a TD every 50 tocuhes... most RBs average far more than a score once every 50 touches.
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um he actually averaged slightly LESS than that in his big rookie year.
JimboJim said:
to project a scoring rate for this season based on his 1 TD last year is not taking the law of averages into factor.
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Nobody is saying he'll only score 1 TD again. But his averages/past point to him simply not scoring much. They would also seem to indicate he has a hard time shouldering the full load/staying healthy.Sure he'll probably do better than last year. But how much? IMO not significantly.He'll have to come pretty cheap in our auction to make my team.
 
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JimboJim said:
cscmtp said:
for all of those predicting he will have 8-12 TDs next year, you realize he had ONE last year right? That passing game won't strike fear in defenses, he'll still see a lot of 8 man fronts, and will have another blah year IMO. I only had him in 1 dynasty league, and traded him and KWII for DeAngelo and Foster, and couldn't be happier. The Bucs are in a division where everyone seems to be getting better...except the Bucs.
Click to expand...
I really like the point that you brought up in regards to his one TD last season.He touched the ball 263 times last year, yet only scored once. That my friend, is a complete statistical anomoly and one reason I feel Williams is being highly undervauled this season. He burned a lot of people last year, myself included. But to project a scoring rate for this season based on his 1 TD last year is not taking the law of averages into factor.

For example, let's look at Keyshawn Johnson's career:

- He played 10 full seasons (one shortened due to team-suspension).

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had over 70 catches.

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had 4+ TDs.

- In 6 of those 10 seasons, he had 8+ TDs.

- His best season for catches and yards (106/1266), he only scored 1 TD.

The point I'm trying to make is that TDs for most players (exclude LT, Alexander, LJ...) are really the most violate factor in the equation. If a player gets his opportunities year in and year out, the majority of the time, the TDs will be there.

Using Dodd's current projections for the top 24 RBs, Caddy is slated to score once every 50 touches, the next closest players to that number are Edge, DeAngelo, McGahee and Brown, all falling into the 36-39 touch per score range.

Call me crazy, but I find it hard to believe that it's going to take Williams an extra 11-14 carries/receptions per score than the other players I listed.
Click to expand...
He is not a breakaway RB, he is not the goalline back, and he is not a receiving threat so 1TD may be an anomoly but I dont think you can project him with many more than that.
 
shadyridr said:
JimboJim said:
cscmtp said:
for all of those predicting he will have 8-12 TDs next year, you realize he had ONE last year right? That passing game won't strike fear in defenses, he'll still see a lot of 8 man fronts, and will have another blah year IMO. I only had him in 1 dynasty league, and traded him and KWII for DeAngelo and Foster, and couldn't be happier. The Bucs are in a division where everyone seems to be getting better...except the Bucs.
Click to expand...
I really like the point that you brought up in regards to his one TD last season.He touched the ball 263 times last year, yet only scored once. That my friend, is a complete statistical anomoly and one reason I feel Williams is being highly undervauled this season. He burned a lot of people last year, myself included. But to project a scoring rate for this season based on his 1 TD last year is not taking the law of averages into factor.

For example, let's look at Keyshawn Johnson's career:

- He played 10 full seasons (one shortened due to team-suspension).

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had over 70 catches.

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had 4+ TDs.

- In 6 of those 10 seasons, he had 8+ TDs.

- His best season for catches and yards (106/1266), he only scored 1 TD.

The point I'm trying to make is that TDs for most players (exclude LT, Alexander, LJ...) are really the most violate factor in the equation. If a player gets his opportunities year in and year out, the majority of the time, the TDs will be there.

Using Dodd's current projections for the top 24 RBs, Caddy is slated to score once every 50 touches, the next closest players to that number are Edge, DeAngelo, McGahee and Brown, all falling into the 36-39 touch per score range.

Call me crazy, but I find it hard to believe that it's going to take Williams an extra 11-14 carries/receptions per score than the other players I listed.
Click to expand...
He is not a breakaway RB, he is not the goalline back, and he is not a receiving threat so 1 TD may be an anomoly but I dont think you can project him with many more than that.
Click to expand...
You don't think you can project Caddy with many more TDs than ONE?? :(
 
fridayfrenzy said:
shadyridr said:
JimboJim said:
cscmtp said:
for all of those predicting he will have 8-12 TDs next year, you realize he had ONE last year right? That passing game won't strike fear in defenses, he'll still see a lot of 8 man fronts, and will have another blah year IMO. I only had him in 1 dynasty league, and traded him and KWII for DeAngelo and Foster, and couldn't be happier. The Bucs are in a division where everyone seems to be getting better...except the Bucs.
Click to expand...
I really like the point that you brought up in regards to his one TD last season.He touched the ball 263 times last year, yet only scored once. That my friend, is a complete statistical anomoly and one reason I feel Williams is being highly undervauled this season. He burned a lot of people last year, myself included. But to project a scoring rate for this season based on his 1 TD last year is not taking the law of averages into factor.

For example, let's look at Keyshawn Johnson's career:

- He played 10 full seasons (one shortened due to team-suspension).

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had over 70 catches.

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had 4+ TDs.

- In 6 of those 10 seasons, he had 8+ TDs.

- His best season for catches and yards (106/1266), he only scored 1 TD.

The point I'm trying to make is that TDs for most players (exclude LT, Alexander, LJ...) are really the most violate factor in the equation. If a player gets his opportunities year in and year out, the majority of the time, the TDs will be there.

Using Dodd's current projections for the top 24 RBs, Caddy is slated to score once every 50 touches, the next closest players to that number are Edge, DeAngelo, McGahee and Brown, all falling into the 36-39 touch per score range.

Call me crazy, but I find it hard to believe that it's going to take Williams an extra 11-14 carries/receptions per score than the other players I listed.
Click to expand...
He is not a breakaway RB, he is not the goalline back, and he is not a receiving threat so 1 TD may be an anomoly but I dont think you can project him with many more than that.
Click to expand...
You don't think you can project Caddy with many more TDs than ONE?? :shock:
Click to expand...
I don't believe it's wise to project him for more than a few. One strikes me as a tad low, but with the entire offense TB has in place, it's not a foolish thing to be conservative in projecting offensive numbers from this team.
 
fridayfrenzy said:
shadyridr said:
JimboJim said:
cscmtp said:
for all of those predicting he will have 8-12 TDs next year, you realize he had ONE last year right? That passing game won't strike fear in defenses, he'll still see a lot of 8 man fronts, and will have another blah year IMO. I only had him in 1 dynasty league, and traded him and KWII for DeAngelo and Foster, and couldn't be happier. The Bucs are in a division where everyone seems to be getting better...except the Bucs.
Click to expand...
I really like the point that you brought up in regards to his one TD last season.He touched the ball 263 times last year, yet only scored once. That my friend, is a complete statistical anomoly and one reason I feel Williams is being highly undervauled this season. He burned a lot of people last year, myself included. But to project a scoring rate for this season based on his 1 TD last year is not taking the law of averages into factor.

For example, let's look at Keyshawn Johnson's career:

- He played 10 full seasons (one shortened due to team-suspension).

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had over 70 catches.

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had 4+ TDs.

- In 6 of those 10 seasons, he had 8+ TDs.

- His best season for catches and yards (106/1266), he only scored 1 TD.

The point I'm trying to make is that TDs for most players (exclude LT, Alexander, LJ...) are really the most violate factor in the equation. If a player gets his opportunities year in and year out, the majority of the time, the TDs will be there.

Using Dodd's current projections for the top 24 RBs, Caddy is slated to score once every 50 touches, the next closest players to that number are Edge, DeAngelo, McGahee and Brown, all falling into the 36-39 touch per score range.

Call me crazy, but I find it hard to believe that it's going to take Williams an extra 11-14 carries/receptions per score than the other players I listed.
Click to expand...
He is not a breakaway RB, he is not the goalline back, and he is not a receiving threat so 1 TD may be an anomoly but I dont think you can project him with many more than that.
Click to expand...
You don't think you can project Caddy with many more TDs than ONE?? :thumbdown:
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Whats your definition of many? I project him with 4 more TDs giving him 5 on the year. Is 5 TDs a lot of TDs?
 
AnonymousBob said:
fridayfrenzy said:
shadyridr said:
JimboJim said:
cscmtp said:
for all of those predicting he will have 8-12 TDs next year, you realize he had ONE last year right? That passing game won't strike fear in defenses, he'll still see a lot of 8 man fronts, and will have another blah year IMO. I only had him in 1 dynasty league, and traded him and KWII for DeAngelo and Foster, and couldn't be happier. The Bucs are in a division where everyone seems to be getting better...except the Bucs.
Click to expand...
I really like the point that you brought up in regards to his one TD last season.He touched the ball 263 times last year, yet only scored once. That my friend, is a complete statistical anomoly and one reason I feel Williams is being highly undervauled this season. He burned a lot of people last year, myself included. But to project a scoring rate for this season based on his 1 TD last year is not taking the law of averages into factor.

For example, let's look at Keyshawn Johnson's career:

- He played 10 full seasons (one shortened due to team-suspension).

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had over 70 catches.

- In 9 of those 10 seasons, he had 4+ TDs.

- In 6 of those 10 seasons, he had 8+ TDs.

- His best season for catches and yards (106/1266), he only scored 1 TD.

The point I'm trying to make is that TDs for most players (exclude LT, Alexander, LJ...) are really the most violate factor in the equation. If a player gets his opportunities year in and year out, the majority of the time, the TDs will be there.

Using Dodd's current projections for the top 24 RBs, Caddy is slated to score once every 50 touches, the next closest players to that number are Edge, DeAngelo, McGahee and Brown, all falling into the 36-39 touch per score range.

Call me crazy, but I find it hard to believe that it's going to take Williams an extra 11-14 carries/receptions per score than the other players I listed.
Click to expand...
He is not a breakaway RB, he is not the goalline back, and he is not a receiving threat so 1 TD may be an anomoly but I dont think you can project him with many more than that.
Click to expand...
You don't think you can project Caddy with many more TDs than ONE?? :thumbdown:
Click to expand...
I don't believe it's wise to project him for more than a few. One strikes me as a tad low, but with the entire offense TB has in place, it's not a foolish thing to be conservative in projecting offensive numbers from this team.
Click to expand...
Even Droughns on the more inept Browns offense scored 4 td's last season. That 1 from Caddy will not come close to happening again.
 
so everyone is in agreement that caddy had a bad 2006... but really the second half of 2005 was just as bad...

his first 3 games he avg 4.9 yds/carry with 2 tds in those 3 games. Then over the rest of the season he averaged 3.6 y/c with 4 tds in 11 games. I think NFL teams have pretty much figured him out... the hype on caddy is huge and I think he is going to be a massive bust...

and people keep saying that his receiving numbers will improve. why is that exactly? he's probably been playing football for 15 years and one day he is going to wake up and say "OH! you mean i'm not supposed to catch the ball like I'm wearing oven mitts?"... i see NO logical reason to believe that....

 
phillyphan07 said:
so everyone is in agreement that caddy had a bad 2006... but really the second half of 2005 was just as bad...his first 3 games he avg 4.9 yds/carry with 2 tds in those 3 games. Then over the rest of the season he averaged 3.6 y/c with 4 tds in 11 games. I think NFL teams have pretty much figured him out... the hype on caddy is huge and I think he is going to be a massive bust...and people keep saying that his receiving numbers will improve. why is that exactly? he's probably been playing football for 15 years and one day he is going to wake up and say "OH! you mean i'm not supposed to catch the ball like I'm wearing oven mitts?"... i see NO logical reason to believe that....
Click to expand...
they did improve from 2005 to 2006 (catches up 50%), yards more than doubled . . .
 
I tend to notice he has good months. It seems like he can put together 3 solid weeks then 4 bad ones. It's hit or miss.

I may be able to get Lynch or Peterson for Caddy and Michael Clayton or Caddy and 1.8 but I'm not sure. For some reason I keep hanging on.

 
phillyphan07 said:
so everyone is in agreement that caddy had a bad 2006... but really the second half of 2005 was just as bad...

his first 3 games he avg 4.9 yds/carry with 2 tds in those 3 games. Then over the rest of the season he averaged 3.6 y/c with 4 tds in 11 games. I think NFL teams have pretty much figured him out... the hype on caddy is huge and I think he is going to be a massive bust...

and people keep saying that his receiving numbers will improve. why is that exactly? he's probably been playing football for 15 years and one day he is going to wake up and say "OH! you mean i'm not supposed to catch the ball like I'm wearing oven mitts?"... i see NO logical reason to believe that....
Click to expand...
Disagree on most points here.A) Week 11 in '05 was when Carnell starting getting a full load again. Weeks 11-16, he averaged 95 yards/game...including games at Carolina and at NE. He scored late game-winning or tying TDs in 3 of those games. And the team went 5-2 and 3-1 on the road to win the division. His 2nd half sewed up the ROY. His YPC may have been down, but the D's were tougher and Gruden used him heavily in the 4th quarters to win games and burn clock.

B) I don't understand how teams have figured him out? I think teams figured out the offense. How do figure out a RB's vision, quickness, and natural instincts...all aspects of Carnell that experts were touting in '05?

C) It's been said earlier, but his rec numbers already did improve. Gruden badly wants them to improve more. And Carnell is a hard worker. It seems pretty logical to expect more improvement, although no one is saying he'll be Brian Westbrook.

I'm not sold Carnell can be a top 5 back, but I do think he has top 10 talent. The surrounding situation and health will make or break that.

I see an OL improvement and relative health lead to:

1300 yards rushing, 7 TDs

300 yards receiving, 1 TD

 
Let me first say that I drafted Caddy in our initial veteran dynasty draft in the 5th round (12 team - 2QB, PPR) as the 23rd RB taken, and thought that was good value for a young RB, highly touted draft prospect who won ROY 2 years ago, so I decided to jump on it.

In 2006, Caddy had a total of 4 goal-line carries for his entire season, which has much to do with luck and the inept TB offense Of those 4 carries within 5 yards, NONE of them were from 3 yards or closer. I know that Alstott was also a factor in Caddy's GL touches, but Alstott only had 3 GL carries himself.

I just can't envision an offense being worse than last year and not having more GL opportunities this year with an upgraded OL and Garcia at the helm.

295 carries

4.0 YPC

1180 rushing yards

45 receptions

6.2 YPR

280 receiving yards

Total Yards: 1460 yards

Total TDs: 7 TDs

 
Williams is an above average RB. He's on the verge of being a good to very good RB. But Tampa Bay really held back his development last year. Tampa was not only a bad offense last year, they struggled to play mediocre football for 16 games. If not for the joke of a franchise down in Oakland, they would have easily been the laughingstock of the league last year on that side of the ball. Jeff Garcia instantly brings back the respect factor for this offense. With Galloway leading the pack and complimentary players like Stovall emerging, and FA Stevens coming aboard, there is enough around Caddy for him to accomplish something.

On the other side of things, the biggest drawback to Caddy is his injury history. The guy has been banged up and been held to less than 10 carries in a lot of games up to this point in his short NFL career. You can't expect and project this guy to see 300+ carries in this offense and with his past. Especially when you consider the RB vultures in Tampa. Alstott has defied all odds and is hanging to collect a paycheck, and in 2007 he will continue to be a presence at the goalline in Tampa. It's a shame in that department, because I think Caddy's ability in limited space and especially at the goalline is what really sets him apart from others backs his size. Caddy not only has to deal with Alstott, but Michael Pittman is still there to vulture 3rd downs and a couple series here and there. He is like a beefed up Kevin Faulk who can't entirely be ignored due to what he can do in the receiving department. I do like the work Caddy has put in for his receiving game this offseason, so I can still see him boosting his stats in that department slightly.

For 2007, I'm looking at a decent RB#2, but not exactly something to write home about:

280/1100/6, 35/250/1

 
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