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Player Spotlight: Bernard Berrian (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Bernard Berrian, WR, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Bernard Berrian Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
Berrian is going to be the guy everybody wished they had drafted when they had the opportunity.

a) yes, Chicago is a run first offense, but I don't think benson will be able to step in and run the ball effectively (and possible injury time off), which will lead to more passing opportunities.

b) Muhammad is a little long in the tooth, but will provide the second WR threat that will keep the double teams off Berrian.

c) He had a real nice showing in the playoff run that will motivate and give him the extra confidence to become an elite receiver.

The one negative I see is Grossman is either on or he's off, which will make Berrian inconsistent on a week-to-week fantasy basis, but will put together an overall great season. great value here.

78/1185/10

 
you're one of posters on this board whose opinion I value, so thanks for the feedback.

true, but to come through in big spots during a run for a super bowl title? that can only build confidence for a guy entering his 4th season.

 
Too inconsistent to be an every week starter. Probably better as a backup. He is strictly a deep threat and while Grossman loves to throw the deep ball you just cant count on him every week.

60 rec, 900 yds, 5 tds

 
Berrian is going to be the guy everybody wished they had drafted when they had the opportunity.a) yes, Chicago is a run first offense, but I don't think benson will be able to step in and run the ball effectively (and possible injury time off), which will lead to more passing opportunities.b) Muhammad is a little long in the tooth, but will provide the second WR threat that will keep the double teams off Berrian.c) He had a real nice showing in the playoff run that will motivate and give him the extra confidence to become an elite receiver.The one negative I see is Grossman is either on or he's off, which will make Berrian inconsistent on a week-to-week fantasy basis, but will put together an overall great season. great value here.78/1185/10
Wow I seriously doubt it
 
I've watched Grossman since his birth (errr, freshman year at Florida) and he is going to throw long at least 4-5 times a game regardless of what play is called. And last year, it was almost always Berrian's number that got called when he was healthy.

If he stays healthy, his numbers should improve by 25% across the board due to Grossman playing better and Berrian getting more looks. Grossman did get in a funk in the middle of last year, not seeming to have his timing down and maybe not being confident in the called plays. But time heals all wounds - many QBs in the 1st 2 years have periods of rough starts.

I think the very solid play of the TE and RB will help the offense. And Berrian was used not only for the bombs but the crossing patterns for 1st downs.

His numbers last year were 51 catches, 775 yards, 6 TD.

I'll predict 65 catches, 900 yards, and 8 TDs - a good #2 WR.

 
I gotta agree with Shadyridr that Berrian, while good, will unfortunately have his value determined by the most unpredictable QB in the NFL. Deciding whether to sit or start him every week will be a monster headache, and unless you're either desparate or homer enough to start him every week, there's at least a 50-50 chance you will miss the weeks he goes for 150 and 2 and get him in on the weeks where he goes for 45. Too inconsistent (not his fault) for a starting WR.

55-800-6 (with 45% of the yards coming in three games)

 
Berrian is going to be the guy everybody wished they had drafted when they had the opportunity.a) yes, Chicago is a run first offense, but I don't think benson will be able to step in and run the ball effectively (and possible injury time off), which will lead to more passing opportunities.b) Muhammad is a little long in the tooth, but will provide the second WR threat that will keep the double teams off Berrian.c) He had a real nice showing in the playoff run that will motivate and give him the extra confidence to become an elite receiver.The one negative I see is Grossman is either on or he's off, which will make Berrian inconsistent on a week-to-week fantasy basis, but will put together an overall great season. great value here.78/1185/10
Wow I seriously doubt it
while I agree with you that Berrian will be inconsistent week-to-week fantasy-wise, our projections aren't that far off except for TDs. A few more red zone opps, which I see happening because Benson isn't going to be able to get the tough yards, and the improved chemistry between he and Grossman and I'm tellin ya you're going to be surprised..., but I willing to agree to disagree.
 
Any thoughts that Grossman improves this season? It was technically his first season as the starter. I'm not saying that he will be a stud, but the man only has like 19-20 games under his belt, plus a Super Bowl now.

 
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Berrian is going to be the guy everybody wished they had drafted when they had the opportunity.

a) yes, Chicago is a run first offense, but I don't think benson will be able to step in and run the ball effectively (and possible injury time off), which will lead to more passing opportunities.

b) Muhammad is a little long in the tooth, but will provide the second WR threat that will keep the double teams off Berrian.

c) He had a real nice showing in the playoff run that will motivate and give him the extra confidence to become an elite receiver.

The one negative I see is Grossman is either on or he's off, which will make Berrian inconsistent on a week-to-week fantasy basis, but will put together an overall great season. great value here.

78/1185/10
Wow I seriously doubt it
while I agree with you that Berrian will be inconsistent week-to-week fantasy-wise, our projections aren't that far off except for TDs. A few more red zone opps, which I see happening because Benson isn't going to be able to get the tough yards, and the improved chemistry between he and Grossman and I'm tellin ya you're going to be surprised..., but I willing to agree to disagree.
And 18 more receptions and 285 more yards...
 
Grossman looked unbelievable at the beginning of last season. Then started with all the turnovers. He may never be hall of fame, but I do believe he's a good quarterback. It's reasonable to expect him to be better in his second full season as a starter. With Benson and no Jones, you have to believe they'll run it a few less times,meaning a few more passing attempts. Berrian's will benefit from all of this. He's not an 80 catch receiver, he's a big play guy. One that I believe is poised for a breakout season, but a breakout season for this guy WILL NOT mean nearly 1200 yards and 10 tds.

64 receptions

945 yards

6 tds.

 
In a redraft league, Berrian is one of those receivers you take a chance on in the 10-14 round range, i.e. he's a speculative pick. He's a great talent being both fast and explosive. When Grossman is itching to throw deep, Berrian is the receiver he's looking for.

Grossman is also Berrian's biggest problem. Grossman's lack of consistency really slashes Berrian's price tag and sits him on the clearance table.

So, what happens with the Bear's QB situation this year? Does Grossman rise to glory by reducing his mistakes and turnovers - and launching the ball to Berrian in the endzone week after week? Or, does he crash and burn and switch places with Griese on the bench? If Griese comes in and dinks and dunks away, how will that affect Berrien?

I'll go with the same numbers as last year, but with a slight boost.

60/900/6-7

 
Also you have to figure they just might have a true top TE talent for the first time since....Ditka? :shrug: Given Grossman isn't exactly Manning and Benson isn't exactly M Faulk, I can see more dump-offs to the TEs, cutting into Berrian's time.

PS weird thing I noticed is Berrian seemed to generally do better vs better pass Ds last year. Note sure if that really matters, just FYI

 
Probably because the better pass Ds thought they could cover him one-on-one, and quickly found they couldn't. Usually by that time Berrian had already stung them for a long bomb.

 
Berrian exploded onto the scene last year, a true third year breakout at WR. In his two previous years he had averaged 32 targets 14 catches 236 yards (17.0 ypc) and 1 TD. In 06, his stats jumped to 101 targets 51 catches 775 yards (15.2 ypc) and 6 TDs.

Problem is Muhammad still had more targets, catches and yards than Berrian. Yet, Berrian is all the rage and Muhammad is the forgotten man. Also, Mark Bradley and Rashied Davis figure to be a little more involved in the offense. The Bears still have Desmond Clark and they added Greg Olsen. And even Devin Hester could be featured in the offense. And did I mention that Mr. Consistency Rex Grossman continues to QB the Bears. Good luck on guessing when Rex will have a good game which is kind of necessary for the WRs to have an impact.

Berrian finished 32nd last year and has an ADP of 32, right about where he should be. WR consistency has been discussed almost too much this off-season, but Berrian is a poster child candidate for lack of consistency, having scored less than fivve points eight games. He had one scoring between five and ten, six from ten to fifteen, and three from 15 to 20.

I see more of the same extreme highs and lows with a slight increase overall.

Berrian 110 targets 55 catches 800 yards (14.5 ypc) and 6 TDs

 
I expect the Bears to have 5 or 6 games won at halftime. In a different situation, Berrian could produce better numbers...one of the better "unsung" talents in the NFL.

60 receptions 1000 yards 6 TD's

 

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