Player Spotlight: Steven Jackson (1 Viewer)

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams

Player Page Link: Steven Jackson Player Page

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Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
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Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

What can you say about Jackson. He's young, talent, strong, athletic and dedicated to the best. He is in a very good offense against a less than steller run division. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and gets most of the carries in the redzone. Some might think the Rams drafting Leonard is a concern but I really think it's just insurance. I see Jackson as being in the top 3 rb this year.

Let's go with

350 carries

1500 yards

15 td's

70 catches (I can't see him getting 90 again this year.)

600 yards

1 td

Dude is a STUD

Blackjacks said:

What can you say about Jackson. He's young, talent, strong, athletic and dedicated to the best. He is in a very good offense against a less than steller run division. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and gets most of the carries in the redzone. Some might think the Rams drafting Leonard is a concern but I really think it's just insurance. I see Jackson as being in the top 3 rb this year.Let's go with350 carries1500 yards15 td's70 catches (I can't see him getting 90 again this year.)600 yards1 tdDude is a STUD

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agree with your post, and Im a big SJ fan, but I think he doesn't even get 60 . . . McMichael may take some of those looks (they had two green rookies at TE last year) . . . I like your stats but knock his rec numbers down to 55/495/1

QBs like to have security in knowing that when a play isn't there they can rely on their RB to at least turn the play into a few yards. Once a QB has that comfort in their RB they will look to them when the situation arises, which is quite a bit during a game. Favre had his RBs in Bennett, Levens, and Green, T. Green had the same with Priest and LJ, Manning does his share of dumping off as well. Bulger is the same kind of QB. He sees the field well and when the play isn't there he goes to S Jax. I don't think that having additional weapons is going to take away that much of his receptions. Of course, I don't think he'll get 90 recs again either, but 75 is definitely possible.

And of course he's a stud RB when he carries the ball as well.

360 caries 1575 yards 14 TD

75 rec 720 yards 5 TD

He should be the #1 pick in all drafts this season!

BLOX said:

QBs like to have security in knowing that when a play isn't there they can rely on their RB to at least turn the play into a few yards. Once a QB has that comfort in their RB they will look to them when the situation arises, which is quite a bit during a game. Favre had his RBs in Bennett, Levens, and Green, T. Green had the same with Priest and LJ, Manning does his share of dumping off as well. Bulger is the same kind of QB. He sees the field well and when the play isn't there he goes to S Jax. I don't think that having additional weapons is going to take away that much of his receptions. Of course, I don't think he'll get 90 recs again either, but 75 is definitely possible.

And of course he's a stud RB when he carries the ball as well.

360 caries 1575 yards 14 TD

75 rec 720 yards 5 TD

He should be the #1 pick in all drafts this season!

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Maybe number 2.

LT #1

SJ #2

Unless you are feeling a bit nutty come draft day and want to gamble on SJ

Phlash said:

LT #1SJ #2Unless you are feeling a bit nutty come draft day and want to gamble on SJ

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The only reason I can see passing on LT is if you know that you'll be tempted to take Turner too early as a handcuff. With SJ you should be able to get Leonard very late and still have a capable backup in case he gets hurt.

My manlove for SJax knows no bounds, I've watched every down he's played and he has improved greatly in since his rookie campaign.. his last 8 games at the end of '06 were LT like.

Great runner through tackles, good goal line rb, excellent pash catcher and is very strong in the open field.

340-1600-15

55-520-3

bcr8f said:

BLOX said:

QBs like to have security in knowing that when a play isn't there they can rely on their RB to at least turn the play into a few yards. Once a QB has that comfort in their RB they will look to them when the situation arises, which is quite a bit during a game. Favre had his RBs in Bennett, Levens, and Green, T. Green had the same with Priest and LJ, Manning does his share of dumping off as well. Bulger is the same kind of QB. He sees the field well and when the play isn't there he goes to S Jax. I don't think that having additional weapons is going to take away that much of his receptions. Of course, I don't think he'll get 90 recs again either, but 75 is definitely possible.

And of course he's a stud RB when he carries the ball as well.

360 caries 1575 yards 14 TD

75 rec 720 yards 5 TD

He should be the #1 pick in all drafts this season!

Click to expand...

Maybe number 2.

Click to expand...

Selecting LT #1 will not be a bad idea for a long time, but in my opinion LT will be behind Jackson in fantasy terms for the 2007 season. Not by much, I just think that there is no way LT does what he did last season again this year, while Jackson is still improving. It'll be a fun race to watch as these two battle for the #1 fantasy ranking in '08.

Stud. Got him ranked as RB#2. Although I expect a decline in receptions as Bulger wont have to dump it off as much with the return of Pace and probable improvement of the Oline.

320 att, 1500 yds, 14 tds, 60 rec, 500 yds, 2 tds

I think Jackson is a little overrated for 2007.

The main reason for that, is that you can't expect Jackson to repeat his wacky receiving totals from last season. Not only should 90 catches from a RB be considered rare and somewhat fluky, but St. Louis brought in a couple upgrades at the passing game that should drop his targets to coincide with a natural regression. Look at Tomlinson with 100 catches one season, back to 50 the following season. All it takes is for one guy to emerge or for one guy to improve and Jackson can see his receptions plummet to a more reasonable range. Bennett at WR is comparable to Curtis in my eyes and McMichael is a class above anything the Ram's have had at TE in a long time. Expect Holt to elevate his game as well in the 2nd year of a new offense. And as if that wasn't enough, Bruce was injured last year. If you wanna count out a vet like Bruce be my guest, but he could easily see a Rod Smith circa 2004-2005 resurgence.

Another thing to worry about with Jackson is his goalline opportunities. Watch the guy run for any length of time and you will notice that he bounces it outside way too much for a back his size. Combine that with all the previously mentioned options at WR/TE and I have a hard time seeing 3 or even 2 carries for Jackson in the majority of goal to go situations.

Overall, Jackson is one of the safest bets as a RB#1 in this year's class of RBs, but I think the true "stud" potential is really lacking. LT and LJ can combine the trifecta of high rushing, high receiving, and insane TDs. Jackson without his insane receiving stats from last year doesn't stack up with his lackluster TD potential IMO. I know LJ has had some negative press regarding the holdout lately, but I really can't see a reason for Jackson to be the consensus RB#2 this season, let alone being compared to LT at the one spot. Additionally there are some minor injury worries with Jackson, considering he plays on turf and his knee has given him some troubles there in the past.

Projections:

340/1500/10, 50/400/2

I'm on board with the previous poster. A solid 1400-1600 yard rushing season along with 12-16 TDs but less of a receiving threat in 07/08 - maybe 40-55 catches, 400-450 yards and a score or two.

In Dynasty leagues Jackson and LT2 are very close. I would take Jackson #1 based on his age(23) and the fact that he is a Beast with great hands!

360/1650/15 55/480/2

BLOX said:

Selecting LT #1 will not be a bad idea for a long time, but in my opinion LT will be behind Jackson in fantasy terms for the 2007 season. Not by much, I just think that there is no way LT does what he did last season again this year, while Jackson is still improving. It'll be a fun race to watch as these two battle for the #1 fantasy ranking in '08.

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There's no way SJax does what he did last season again this year, either. SJax had the 5th highest yards from scrimmage total in NFL history. That's just as big of a fluke, and he's just as likely to regress.

325 carries

1420 yards rushing

11 TDs rushing

65 receptions

540 yards receiving

2 TDs receiving

JimboJim said:

325 carries1420 yards rushing11 TDs rushing65 receptions540 yards receiving2 TDs receiving

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These are pretty spot on IMOI would still take LT number 1 over Sjax but i can see the arguement for Sjax #1320 carries--1400 yds 12 tds70 rec600 rec yds 4 rec tds

When considering Steven Jackson, its almost all positive. He has a reliable offensive line, a potent offense, his QB is good at giving him the ball in space, he's young so we don't have to discuss the number of carries that are wearing on his body. He gets to play half his games indoors on a fast track. On and on we go.

I think that St. Louis is set for a great offensive showing in 07. Bulger, Holt, Bennett, McMichael, and maybe Bruce are all in for nice years. I see Steven Jackson continuing to be the focal point of the running game, but less involved in the passing game. I know that McMichael will be more involved than previous Ram TEs and I expect that Leonard will spell Jackson more than he was rested in 06.

But, it will result in maintaining that high yards per carry and save a little on the wear and tear factor.

Steven Jackson 320 carries for 1408 (4.4) 8 TDs and 52 catches for 400 yds and 2 TDs

rzrback77 said:

When considering Steven Jackson, its almost all positive. He has a reliable offensive line, a potent offense, his QB is good at giving him the ball in space, he's young so we don't have to discuss the number of carries that are wearing on his body. He gets to play half his games indoors on a fast track. On and on we go.I think that St. Louis is set for a great offensive showing in 07. Bulger, Holt, Bennett, McMichael, and maybe Bruce are all in for nice years. I see Steven Jackson continuing to be the focal point of the running game, but less involved in the passing game. I know that McMichael will be more involved than previous Ram TEs and I expect that Leonard will spell Jackson more than he was rested in 06.But, it will result in maintaining that high yards per carry and save a little on the wear and tear factor.Steven Jackson 320 carries for 1408 (4.4) 8 TDs and 52 catches for 400 yds and 2 TDs

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Rzrback, I read your post and like your thought process. The rushing TD projection seems low to me after you've listed all those positives. I'm sure you have a good reason for estimating 8 rushing TDs and I'm interesting in knowing it. Thanks.-G

Just want to point this out about SJ's 2006 stats

Steven Jackson receptions when the team is behind: 58

Steven Jackson receptions when the team has the lead: 13

When the score is tied: 22

Does this just mean that the Rams were behind way more than they were in the lead? Marc Bulger's attempts when trailing, winning and tied are 330, 153 and 105 respectively. So yeah, the Rams did trail quite a bit in the 2006 season and Jackson surely benefited from it.

One thing is for sure, Jackson gets way more looks in the passing game when the Rams are trailing. He's almost a non-factor as a receiver when the Rams are leading. Bulger had 85 completions when the Rams had the lead and Jackson had only 13 of them.

Jackson owners just be aware, if the Rams have a good season, you can bet that Jackson will probably have less than 60 recs. In fact, that number might even be less than 50.

Bottom line: Jackson owners - Hope for a 8-8 season or worse.

BLOX said:

bcr8f said:

BLOX said:

QBs like to have security in knowing that when a play isn't there they can rely on their RB to at least turn the play into a few yards. Once a QB has that comfort in their RB they will look to them when the situation arises, which is quite a bit during a game. Favre had his RBs in Bennett, Levens, and Green, T. Green had the same with Priest and LJ, Manning does his share of dumping off as well. Bulger is the same kind of QB. He sees the field well and when the play isn't there he goes to S Jax. I don't think that having additional weapons is going to take away that much of his receptions. Of course, I don't think he'll get 90 recs again either, but 75 is definitely possible.

And of course he's a stud RB when he carries the ball as well.

360 caries 1575 yards 14 TD

75 rec 720 yards 5 TD

He should be the #1 pick in all drafts this season!

Click to expand...

Maybe number 2.

Click to expand...

Selecting LT #1 will not be a bad idea for a long time, but in my opinion LT will be behind Jackson in fantasy terms for the 2007 season. Not by much, I just think that there is no way LT does what he did last season again this year, while Jackson is still improving. It'll be a fun race to watch as these two battle for the #1 fantasy ranking in '08.

Click to expand...

While there's a good chance LT won't repeat what he did, there's an equally good chance the SJax doesn't repeat what he did. LT finished with nearly 100 more fantasy points than SJax last year nearly 30% more so LT would have to drop quite a bit. LT returns to the #1 scoring offense returning every starter with one the best lines in the league, improving WR situation, Rivers/McNeill with a year under their belts, etc. There's no real reasons to expect that he will drop off much from last year (at least to me).

Wheelhouse said:

Just want to point this out about SJ's 2006 stats

Steven Jackson receptions when the team is behind: 58

Steven Jackson receptions when the team has the lead: 18

When the score is tied: 22

Does this just mean that the Rams were behind way more than they were in the lead? Marc Bulger's attempts when trailing, winning and tied are 330, 153 and 105 respectively. So yeah, the Rams did trail quite a bit in the 2006 season and Jackson surely benefited from it.

One thing is for sure, Jackson gets way more looks in the passing game when the Rams are trailing. He's almost a non-factor as a receiver when the Rams are leading. Bulger had 85 completions when the Rams had the lead and Jackson had only 13 of them.

Jackson owners just be aware, if the Rams have a good season, you can bet that Jackson will probably have less than 60 recs. In fact, that number might even be less than 50.

Bottom line: Jackson owners - Hope for a 8-8 season or worse.

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I think you might be mis-interperating your own numbers. You say that Jackson plays almost no role in the passing game when the Rams aren't trailing yet according to your own numbers he caught 17.5% of Rams completions when they were ahead and 15.5% otherwise. Really that's not much of a dropoff.Peyton Manning threw more TDs last year when Indy was leading than he did when they were trailing or tied, but is that a product of him actually being more likely to throw a TD when leading or just that they spent more time in the lead (hence fewer opps)? I'm inclined to say the latter.

Obviously this is a bit different for Sjax since RB receptions tend to benefit from trailing in general, but I don't think Sjax's usage in the passing game increased much more than other league RBs when trailing.

Further, Sjax's far and away best FF games came towards the end of the season when the Rams were winning, so why exactly do we want them losing again?

This isn't a Reggie Bush situation here where he.s racking up garbage pt dumpoffs when behind but sitting on the bench watching Deuce run out the clock when ahead. If they're leading he.s the guy in there pounding the clock, which is when he did much of his FF damage late last year.

So even if his receptions drop with increased leads I don''t exoect FF points to drop as well. He's getting the points either way.

FreeBaGeL said:

Wheelhouse said:

Just want to point this out about SJ's 2006 stats

Steven Jackson receptions when the team is behind: 58

Steven Jackson receptions when the team has the lead: 13

When the score is tied: 22

Does this just mean that the Rams were behind way more than they were in the lead? Marc Bulger's attempts when trailing, winning and tied are 330, 153 and 105 respectively. So yeah, the Rams did trail quite a bit in the 2006 season and Jackson surely benefited from it.

One thing is for sure, Jackson gets way more looks in the passing game when the Rams are trailing. He's almost a non-factor as a receiver when the Rams are leading. Bulger had 85 completions when the Rams had the lead and Jackson had only 13 of them.

Jackson owners just be aware, if the Rams have a good season, you can bet that Jackson will probably have less than 60 recs. In fact, that number might even be less than 50.

Bottom line: Jackson owners - Hope for a 8-8 season or worse.

Click to expand...

I think you might be mis-interperating your own numbers. You say that Jackson plays almost no role in the passing game when the Rams aren't trailing yet according to your own numbers he caught 17.5% of Rams completions when they were ahead and 15.5% otherwise. Really that's not much of a dropoff.Peyton Manning threw more TDs last year when Indy was leading than he did when they were trailing or tied, but is that a product of him actually being more likely to throw a TD when leading or just that they spent more time in the lead (hence fewer opps)? I'm inclined to say the latter.

Obviously this is a bit different for Sjax since RB receptions tend to benefit from trailing in general, but I don't think Sjax's usage in the passing game increased much more than other league RBs when trailing.

Further, Sjax's far and away best FF games came towards the end of the season when the Rams were winning, so why exactly do we want them losing again?

This isn't a Reggie Bush situation here where he.s racking up garbage pt dumpoffs when behind but sitting on the bench watching Deuce run out the clock when ahead. If they're leading he.s the guy in there pounding the clock, which is when he did much of his FF damage late last year.

So even if his receptions drop with increased leads I don''t exoect FF points to drop as well. He's getting the points either way.

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I'm not sure where you got those numbers from? And keep in mind, I'm only talking about his receiving game here. Let's look at the numbers from 2006.Jackson had 58 recs when trailing and 13 when leading. In this case we're not counting when the score was tied. To determine percentages, Marc Bulger had 214 completions when trailing and 85 when leading.

58/214 = 27% of Bulger's completons went to Jackson when trailing

13/85 = 15% of Bulger's completions went to Jackson when leading

That's a significant difference in receptions which tells me, if the Rams are winning for most of the game, he's not getting his 8-10 recs per game, but more like 4-6.

Whoops, I said completions when I meant attempts (attempts was the number you originally used).

When leading: 58/330 = 17.5%

Otherwise: 35/258 = 13.5% (looks like I had this number wrong in my last post...I was posting from my phone so cut me some slack )

When using completions:

Leading: 58/214 = 27%

Otherwise: 35/156 = 22.5%

I'm not sure how much the rest of the league RBs dropoff there, but I'd imagine it's about the same. And my point still stands about FF points in general. Again his best games came down the stretch when they were winning.

Gandalf said:

rzrback77 said:

When considering Steven Jackson, its almost all positive. He has a reliable offensive line, a potent offense, his QB is good at giving him the ball in space, he's young so we don't have to discuss the number of carries that are wearing on his body. He gets to play half his games indoors on a fast track. On and on we go.I think that St. Louis is set for a great offensive showing in 07. Bulger, Holt, Bennett, McMichael, and maybe Bruce are all in for nice years. I see Steven Jackson continuing to be the focal point of the running game, but less involved in the passing game. I know that McMichael will be more involved than previous Ram TEs and I expect that Leonard will spell Jackson more than he was rested in 06.But, it will result in maintaining that high yards per carry and save a little on the wear and tear factor.Steven Jackson 320 carries for 1408 (4.4) 8 TDs and 52 catches for 400 yds and 2 TDs

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Rzrback, I read your post and like your thought process. The rushing TD projection seems low to me after you've listed all those positives. I'm sure you have a good reason for estimating 8 rushing TDs and I'm interesting in knowing it. Thanks.-G

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I think that the Rams passing TDs will increase, going to Holt, McMichael, and Bennett. I think Bulger will run in a couple and the rookie Leonard will score three or four. TDs are the most volatile and I just think that it all come together last year for S Jax. He carried my team all year and especially down the stretch, but comes back to earth in 07.

rzrback77 said:

Gandalf said:

rzrback77 said:

When considering Steven Jackson, its almost all positive. He has a reliable offensive line, a potent offense, his QB is good at giving him the ball in space, he's young so we don't have to discuss the number of carries that are wearing on his body. He gets to play half his games indoors on a fast track. On and on we go.

I think that St. Louis is set for a great offensive showing in 07. Bulger, Holt, Bennett, McMichael, and maybe Bruce are all in for nice years. I see Steven Jackson continuing to be the focal point of the running game, but less involved in the passing game. I know that McMichael will be more involved than previous Ram TEs and I expect that Leonard will spell Jackson more than he was rested in 06.

But, it will result in maintaining that high yards per carry and save a little on the wear and tear factor.

Steven Jackson 320 carries for 1408 (4.4) 8 TDs and 52 catches for 400 yds and 2 TDs

Click to expand...

Rzrback, I read your post and like your thought process. The rushing TD projection seems low to me after you've listed all those positives. I'm sure you have a good reason for estimating 8 rushing TDs and I'm interesting in knowing it. Thanks.-G

Click to expand...

I think that the Rams passing TDs will increase, going to Holt, McMichael, and Bennett. I think Bulger will run in a couple and the rookie Leonard will score three or four. TDs are the most volatile and I just think that it all come together last year for S Jax. He carried my team all year and especially down the stretch, but comes back to earth in 07.

Click to expand...

agreed . . .