What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Strength of Schedule Released (1 Viewer)

David Dodds

Administrator
Clayton Gray breaks down each of the positions in his Ultimate Strength of Schedule series.

We also released the 12 part Beginner's Guide Series

Each of these new articles has a prienter friendly version available as well.

Enjoy!

Articles Page

 
realized that I did not have CSS and images pointing to the right spot. Should be right in a few minutes here.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Yet another reason to like McGahee this year - easiest projected RB schedule (7 ez's and 3 tuf's).

 
If Vick does not find himself in trouble, he looks to be great to trade for after week 3 (when his own may give up on him). He has 7 EZs and only one Tuff after week 3 and his week 15 and 16 (playoffs/championships) looks very appetizing. My question is when evaluating QB matchups for a "running" QB do you also need to account for the rushing matchups of that week too?

 
Do the SOS's change each week during the season, or after we begin to see a trend in offensive and defensive talent for a year.

Say after week 4, week 8, and week 12 are the SOS numbers recalculated to help us with trades, and projecting playoff matchups?

 
Do the SOS's change each week during the season, or after we begin to see a trend in offensive and defensive talent for a year.Say after week 4, week 8, and week 12 are the SOS numbers recalculated to help us with trades, and projecting playoff matchups?
We release new SOS every week during the season.
 
I don't suppose there's any way to get that weekly grid into one table. You've got a lot of dead/white space in the columns of those tables (Not to mention the space you waste with the grass), and it's much easier to see the whole schedule and spot trends if each team is all on one row.

Great content as usual, not so thrilled about the layout.

 
I don't suppose there's any way to get that weekly grid into one table. You've got a lot of dead/white space in the columns of those tables (Not to mention the space you waste with the grass), and it's much easier to see the whole schedule and spot trends if each team is all on one row.

Great content as usual, not so thrilled about the layout.
Below is a link to an excel spreadsheet I created using the data provided...http://www.sendspace.com/file/dk2s0p

Let me know if the link works for ya'll. I added a column at the end, to show the grade of each team (it's missing from the original files). Also, I rank ordered the teams (from worst SOS to best). In case of tie, I ranked based on %ch

 
I don't suppose there's any way to get that weekly grid into one table. You've got a lot of dead/white space in the columns of those tables (Not to mention the space you waste with the grass), and it's much easier to see the whole schedule and spot trends if each team is all on one row.

Great content as usual, not so thrilled about the layout.
Below is a link to an excel spreadsheet I created using the data provided...http://www.sendspace.com/file/dk2s0p

Let me know if the link works for ya'll. I added a column at the end, to show the grade of each team (it's missing from the original files). Also, I rank ordered the teams (from worst SOS to best). In case of tie, I ranked based on %ch
There are 3 tabs on this sheet, but only the tab marked QB has data on it??
 
I don't suppose there's any way to get that weekly grid into one table. You've got a lot of dead/white space in the columns of those tables (Not to mention the space you waste with the grass), and it's much easier to see the whole schedule and spot trends if each team is all on one row.

Great content as usual, not so thrilled about the layout.
Below is a link to an excel spreadsheet I created using the data provided...http://www.sendspace.com/file/dk2s0p

Let me know if the link works for ya'll. I added a column at the end, to show the grade of each team (it's missing from the original files). Also, I rank ordered the teams (from worst SOS to best). In case of tie, I ranked based on %ch
There are 3 tabs on this sheet, but only the tab marked QB has data on it??
I haven't completed the RB or WR data yet. I only wanted to make sure you all could download the file from the link I provided. I take it by your remark that the download was successful, so I will provide a new link when I finish.
 
BTW, don't waste your time trying to compare SOS's from different websites. The results are going to be skewed, based on how they rate each defense. As an example, here is the rank order for D's against QB's (I've bolded the ones that were 10 or more spots different):

FBG FF Authority

OAK MIN

NE CHI

JAC BAL

IND NYG

DEN IND

CHI NE

BAL BUF

BUF MIA

MIN DET

CLE GB

SD STL

STL OAK

PHI DEN

NYJ NYJ

KC PHI

PIT CLE

CAR SEA

ATL JAC

MIA SD

SEA CAR

TEN CIN

GB KC

SF HOU

DET SF

ARI NO

NO PIT

HOU ATL

TB DAL

NYG TB

WAS TEN

CIN ARI

DAL WAS

One-fourth of the teams vary by 10 or more spots. Another one-fourth of the teams varied between 6-9 spots. Only 11 out of 32 teams were even within 3 spots of each other. So, the question becomes, will you be the person who averages out SOS's from many websites, or will you pick one site and stick to it (with minor tweaking, as you see fit)? I'll be in the latter category, and will be using FBG, or course.

 
Except for McGahee, I'm not that thrilled with the top 5 teams for RB SOS. Third column is current expert ranking of the #1 on the depth chart

TM 07sos rank

Bal 19.5 15

Jac 19.1 14

Den 19 11

TB 19 20

Hou 18.9 23

I think this bit of the SOS may only serve as a way to choose between RB2s or 3s...

 
STOP!

I noticed an error on the RB SOS. It seems as though Clayton got the schedule mixed up. If you look at BUF, for example, they play a team with a rating of 12.3 in week 7 (BAL), and they also play a team with a rating of 12.3 in week 17 (PHI). Clayton only rated 1 defense at 12.3, so one of them has to be wrong. It's pretty obvious the latter is a mistake. Based on week 1, here are the ratings for each defense:

Bal 12.3

Min 13.1

Pit 13.6

Mia 13.8

Jac 14.5

NO 14.8

NE 14.9

Chi 15.1

Car 15.6

SD 15.8

Atl 16.6

NYG 17

Dal 17.4

TB 17.6

KC 18

Sea 18.3

GB 18.7

Phi 18.8

Den 19

NYJ 19.2

Cin 19.5

Ari 20

Was 20.2

Det 20.5

Oak 20.9

Hou 21.2

Cle 21.5

Ten 21.9

Buf 22.1

StL 22.8

SF 23.3

Ind 24.4

This list looks to be pretty accurate, but until Clayton fixes the mix up, beware using the chart.

 
So I guess Marshawn Lynch isn't going to have a tough time this season with 1easy matchup and 8 difficult ones.

 
Clayton Gray breaks down each of the positions in his Ultimate Strength of Schedule series.

We also released the 12 part Beginner's Guide Series

Each of these new articles has a prienter friendly version available as well.

Enjoy!

Articles Page
flawed.Az is listed as a cold team with a bad schedule, for weeks 14-17.

Wrong..

they play @Seattle, @New Orleans, Atlanta, St Louis.

some of the worst run defenses from 2006. Atl was a respectable 9th against the run in 2006, so I'll buy that it could be a tough game, but the rest are push-overs!

Code:
Rushing DefenseTeam	G	Att	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TDs	FDs	20+Minnesota	16	348	21.8	985	2.8	61.6	9	53	8Baltimore	16	367	22.9	1214	3.3	75.9	5	59	4Pittsburgh	16	408	25.5	1412	3.5	88.2	9	72	5Jacksonville	16	420	26.2	1460	3.5	91.2	14	94	6New England	16	388	24.2	1507	3.9	94.2	11	67	6Chicago	16	402	25.1	1590	4.0	99.4	7	77	13San Diego	16	386	24.1	1613	4.2	100.8	13	87	8Miami	16	461	28.8	1618	3.5	101.1	7	72	3Atlanta	16	442	27.6	1657	3.7	103.6	14	97	5Dallas	16	429	26.8	1659	3.9	103.7	12	88	5Carolina	16	449	28.1	1737	3.9	108.6	10	96	11Denver	16	447	27.9	1813	4.1	113.3	13	97	9Green Bay	16	441	27.6	1825	4.1	114.1	12	95	7New York (N)	16	458	28.6	1830	4.0	114.4	19	106	8Cincinnati	16	448	28.0	1863	4.2	116.4	15	109	10Arizona	16	458	28.6	1897	4.1	118.6	16	114	9Tampa Bay	16	497	31.1	1917	3.9	119.8	11	108	13Kansas City	16	461	28.8	1928	4.2	120.5	14	109	9San Francisco	16	473	29.6	1936	4.1	121.0	18	107	5Houston	16	446	27.9	1956	4.4	122.2	16	115	11Detroit	16	492	30.8	2010	4.1	125.6	18	111	11[b]Seattle	16	441	27.6	2029	4.6	126.8	12	102	17[/b][b]New Orleans	16	418	26.1	2063	4.9	128.9	10	96	14[/b]New York (A)	16	453	28.3	2084	4.6	130.2	14	111	6Oakland	16	542	33.9	2144	4.0	134.0	15	107	10Philadelphia	16	489	30.6	2182	4.5	136.4	12	126	8Washington	16	492	30.8	2197	4.5	137.3	9	104	11Buffalo	16	476	29.8	2254	4.7	140.9	14	117	13Cleveland	16	514	32.1	2275	4.4	142.2	14	107	16Tennessee	16	506	31.6	2313	4.6	144.6	20	121	16[b]St. Louis	16	477	29.8	2327	4.9	145.4	21	121	17[/b]Indianapolis	16	519	32.4	2768	5.3	173.0	20	150	18
NOT ONE of these teams has done anything special to revamp their pathetic run defense.
 
BUMP

I would love to use this SOS, but Clayton needs to fix the scheduling mistakes. Also, it would be helpful if he posted each teams defensive numbers, so we all know who the teams are. That way, we can make sure the scheduling coincides as well. Without teams associated with each number, we have to guess where his scheduling mistakes are.

 
Clayton Gray breaks down each of the positions in his Ultimate Strength of Schedule series.

We also released the 12 part Beginner's Guide Series

Each of these new articles has a prienter friendly version available as well.

Enjoy!

Articles Page
flawed.Az is listed as a cold team with a bad schedule, for weeks 14-17.

Wrong..

they play @Seattle, @New Orleans, Atlanta, St Louis.

some of the worst run defenses from 2006. Atl was a respectable 9th against the run in 2006, so I'll buy that it could be a tough game, but the rest are push-overs!

Code:
Rushing DefenseTeam	G	Att	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TDs	FDs	20+Minnesota	16	348	21.8	985	2.8	61.6	9	53	8Baltimore	16	367	22.9	1214	3.3	75.9	5	59	4Pittsburgh	16	408	25.5	1412	3.5	88.2	9	72	5Jacksonville	16	420	26.2	1460	3.5	91.2	14	94	6New England	16	388	24.2	1507	3.9	94.2	11	67	6Chicago	16	402	25.1	1590	4.0	99.4	7	77	13San Diego	16	386	24.1	1613	4.2	100.8	13	87	8Miami	16	461	28.8	1618	3.5	101.1	7	72	3Atlanta	16	442	27.6	1657	3.7	103.6	14	97	5Dallas	16	429	26.8	1659	3.9	103.7	12	88	5Carolina	16	449	28.1	1737	3.9	108.6	10	96	11Denver	16	447	27.9	1813	4.1	113.3	13	97	9Green Bay	16	441	27.6	1825	4.1	114.1	12	95	7New York (N)	16	458	28.6	1830	4.0	114.4	19	106	8Cincinnati	16	448	28.0	1863	4.2	116.4	15	109	10Arizona	16	458	28.6	1897	4.1	118.6	16	114	9Tampa Bay	16	497	31.1	1917	3.9	119.8	11	108	13Kansas City	16	461	28.8	1928	4.2	120.5	14	109	9San Francisco	16	473	29.6	1936	4.1	121.0	18	107	5Houston	16	446	27.9	1956	4.4	122.2	16	115	11Detroit	16	492	30.8	2010	4.1	125.6	18	111	11[b]Seattle	16	441	27.6	2029	4.6	126.8	12	102	17[/b][b]New Orleans	16	418	26.1	2063	4.9	128.9	10	96	14[/b]New York (A)	16	453	28.3	2084	4.6	130.2	14	111	6Oakland	16	542	33.9	2144	4.0	134.0	15	107	10Philadelphia	16	489	30.6	2182	4.5	136.4	12	126	8Washington	16	492	30.8	2197	4.5	137.3	9	104	11Buffalo	16	476	29.8	2254	4.7	140.9	14	117	13Cleveland	16	514	32.1	2275	4.4	142.2	14	107	16Tennessee	16	506	31.6	2313	4.6	144.6	20	121	16[b]St. Louis	16	477	29.8	2327	4.9	145.4	21	121	17[/b]Indianapolis	16	519	32.4	2768	5.3	173.0	20	150	18
NOT ONE of these teams has done anything special to revamp their pathetic run defense.
I think you'll be surprised at both New Orleans and Atlanta's run defense in 2007
 
Clayton Gray breaks down each of the positions in his Ultimate Strength of Schedule series.

We also released the 12 part Beginner's Guide Series

Each of these new articles has a prienter friendly version available as well.

Enjoy!

Articles Page
flawed.Az is listed as a cold team with a bad schedule, for weeks 14-17.

Wrong..

they play @Seattle, @New Orleans, Atlanta, St Louis.

some of the worst run defenses from 2006. Atl was a respectable 9th against the run in 2006, so I'll buy that it could be a tough game, but the rest are push-overs!

Code:
Rushing DefenseTeam	G	Att	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TDs	FDs	20+Minnesota	16	348	21.8	985	2.8	61.6	9	53	8Baltimore	16	367	22.9	1214	3.3	75.9	5	59	4Pittsburgh	16	408	25.5	1412	3.5	88.2	9	72	5Jacksonville	16	420	26.2	1460	3.5	91.2	14	94	6New England	16	388	24.2	1507	3.9	94.2	11	67	6Chicago	16	402	25.1	1590	4.0	99.4	7	77	13San Diego	16	386	24.1	1613	4.2	100.8	13	87	8Miami	16	461	28.8	1618	3.5	101.1	7	72	3Atlanta	16	442	27.6	1657	3.7	103.6	14	97	5Dallas	16	429	26.8	1659	3.9	103.7	12	88	5Carolina	16	449	28.1	1737	3.9	108.6	10	96	11Denver	16	447	27.9	1813	4.1	113.3	13	97	9Green Bay	16	441	27.6	1825	4.1	114.1	12	95	7New York (N)	16	458	28.6	1830	4.0	114.4	19	106	8Cincinnati	16	448	28.0	1863	4.2	116.4	15	109	10Arizona	16	458	28.6	1897	4.1	118.6	16	114	9Tampa Bay	16	497	31.1	1917	3.9	119.8	11	108	13Kansas City	16	461	28.8	1928	4.2	120.5	14	109	9San Francisco	16	473	29.6	1936	4.1	121.0	18	107	5Houston	16	446	27.9	1956	4.4	122.2	16	115	11Detroit	16	492	30.8	2010	4.1	125.6	18	111	11[b]Seattle	16	441	27.6	2029	4.6	126.8	12	102	17[/b][b]New Orleans	16	418	26.1	2063	4.9	128.9	10	96	14[/b]New York (A)	16	453	28.3	2084	4.6	130.2	14	111	6Oakland	16	542	33.9	2144	4.0	134.0	15	107	10Philadelphia	16	489	30.6	2182	4.5	136.4	12	126	8Washington	16	492	30.8	2197	4.5	137.3	9	104	11Buffalo	16	476	29.8	2254	4.7	140.9	14	117	13Cleveland	16	514	32.1	2275	4.4	142.2	14	107	16Tennessee	16	506	31.6	2313	4.6	144.6	20	121	16[b]St. Louis	16	477	29.8	2327	4.9	145.4	21	121	17[/b]Indianapolis	16	519	32.4	2768	5.3	173.0	20	150	18
NOT ONE of these teams has done anything special to revamp their pathetic run defense.
I think you'll be surprised at both New Orleans and Atlanta's run defense in 2007
Can you elaborate?
 
Anybody emailed Clayton to explain to him the issues ??

I'd like to use them soon also, hopefully they will be fixed early next week.

Ckev

 
No problem Clayton and thanks for a great article and saving me a lot of time...

Since you did all the work :D

Thanks again Ckev

 
How accurate are these things generally? Was the one last year any good?
That's a very good question.1) The strength of the defense is extremely hard to predict from one year to the next. Remeber when people were drafting Tampa Bay and New England in the 7th or 8th round? Things change fast on defense. Much depends on the team's ability to win, and the ability of the offense to stay on the field. 2) The quality of the opposing offense will vary greatly. That also makes it hard to assess defensive strength.3) The strength of the defense will not be consistent. This could vary to to injury, weather conditions, importance of the game (are they already eliminated from the playoffs), or the rate at which rookies develop and become consistent starters.4) Some teams - such as the Patriots - will attack the main weakness of the opposing team. This might mean that they run 45 times one game and pass 45 times the next. A defense is not necessarily good just because it allows few points to the run while allowing a lot of points to the pass. 5) Some teams will play to their strengths, and will focus on the pass or the run every week. The Rams like to throw, and Bulger had 356/3 vs. the Bears' 6th-rated pass defense last year. The Jaguars like to run and Jones-Drew had 172 combined yards and two TDs against the Patriots' 5th-ranked run defense last year. Peyton Manning and LT usually do well against any defense.6) Those defenses that do play against the studs such as Manning, Brees, McNabb, and Bulger, or LT, Jackson, Gore, are likely to have a skewed value overall. The same goes for TE values for teams that face Gates.7) Weak teams will fail miserably to compete and so their opponents get a lead and run all over them when the game is safe. That leads to statistics that are the result of that weakness, such as the Raiders allowing the fewest points to opposing QBs last year.Anything that we can use to gain an edge is important, but there are so many variables here. Forecasting which teams will have the toughest run or pass defense is almost futile until we have something meaningful to go on. I certainly wouldn't place too much emphasis on looking for players that have weak schedules in weeks 14-16. After 8-10 weeks, I might try to trade for players that fit that description, but not in the initial draft.
 
STOP!I noticed an error on the RB SOS. It seems as though Clayton got the schedule mixed up.
Yikes. Somehow, my Excel file had an incorrect week 17. The corrections have been sent to Dodds. I apologize for the error.
Thanx, Clayton. Great stuff, BTW. Just so you know, it looks like week 17 is mixed up not only on RB SOS, but on all positions. For those trying to use the chart now, just know that when it gets reposted, the following columns will change for all positions: 07sos, %ch, EZ, Tuf, Lst5, 15-17, and W17. All other columns should be correct, unless I missed anything else.
 
This may be a dumb question...

I see 07SOS and the %Change from 2006. But is the 2006 actual SOS posted anywhere?

I suppose I could just work backwards from what you've posted, but the raw data from 2006 (and earlier) would be enormously helpful. Predicting 2007 SOS is virtually impossible, but taking 2006 SOS and compiling adjusted 2006 should be trivially easy, in theory. I use previous year stats as the starting point for projections for the upcoming season (I doubt I'm the only one, too), so being able to look backward and estimate how much of a player's past production was influenced by an easy/hard schedule that year would be very useful.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This may be a dumb question...

I see 07SOS and the %Change from 2006. But is the 2006 actual SOS posted anywhere?

I suppose I could just work backwards from what you've posted, but the raw data from 2006 (and earlier) would be enormously helpful. Predicting 2007 SOS is virtually impossible, but taking 2006 SOS and compiling adjusted 2006 should be trivially easy, in theory. I use previous year stats as the starting point for projections for the upcoming season (I doubt I'm the only one, too), so being able to look backward and estimate how much of a player's past production was influenced by an easy/hard schedule that year would be very useful.
http://footballguys.com/06sos_qb_v01.htm
 
Would love to know how this is factored into the FBG Staff projections.. or whether it hasn't been to this point, but will be going forward.

 
Musesboy said:
abrecher said:
This may be a dumb question...

I see 07SOS and the %Change from 2006. But is the 2006 actual SOS posted anywhere?

I suppose I could just work backwards from what you've posted, but the raw data from 2006 (and earlier) would be enormously helpful. Predicting 2007 SOS is virtually impossible, but taking 2006 SOS and compiling adjusted 2006 should be trivially easy, in theory. I use previous year stats as the starting point for projections for the upcoming season (I doubt I'm the only one, too), so being able to look backward and estimate how much of a player's past production was influenced by an easy/hard schedule that year would be very useful.
http://footballguys.com/06sos_qb_v01.htm
That's the predicted SOS as of last summer. I'm looking for the actual SOS.
 
I was reading some of the new spolights posted today. In those, it says Carson Palmer has on of the toughest strength of schedules for QBs. Then I read the T.J. Housh spotlight and it says the Bengals WRs have the 4th easiest strength of schedules. How does this happen, seems like the two should go together.

 
I don't suppose there's any way to get that weekly grid into one table. You've got a lot of dead/white space in the columns of those tables (Not to mention the space you waste with the grass), and it's much easier to see the whole schedule and spot trends if each team is all on one row.

Great content as usual, not so thrilled about the layout.
Below is a link to an excel spreadsheet I created using the data provided...http://www.sendspace.com/file/dk2s0p

Let me know if the link works for ya'll. I added a column at the end, to show the grade of each team (it's missing from the original files). Also, I rank ordered the teams (from worst SOS to best). In case of tie, I ranked based on %ch
Below is the new link to the excel spreadsheet...http://www.sendspace.com/file/hd1xof

There are tabs at the bottom for QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D. I did not chart the IDP's, because I play in no such leagues. Each tab should print in landscape mode fine and dandy. Enjoy!

 
Clayton et al --

Will USOS be updated before the season starts? I'm sure everyone has a better idea of good and bad defenses to start players again now, compared to the end of June.

 
I love the USOS, but why did it need updating? I thought it was based on removing any bias of the previous year's schedule. What has changed since the original article/tables came out?

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top