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Player Spotlight: Maurice Jones-Drew (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Maurice Jones-Drew Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
Taylor still's the man there IMO. That being said Taylor will get knicked up on occassion, MJD will get all the goalline carries, and should be used in the passing game a ton. Should be a solid RB2 but Id like him more as a RB3. No chance he approaches last years #s as long as Taylor is still around.

180 att, 900 yds, 9 tds, 40 rec, 350 yds, 2 tds

 
180 1000 10 TD 55 rec 600 3 TD

Again shows he one of the most electrifying players in the NFL. I feel about Taylor in Jax as I do with Deuce in NO. They'll get their #'s and their presence will only make Bush/MJD that have that much more impact and fresher on the carries/catches they do get.

 
230 carries

1080 yards rushing

8 TDs rushing

50 receptions

425 yards recieving

2 TDs recieving

I like Drew, but until Taylor is gone, I never see him carrying the full load. Last season, the only players with higher TD/per touch percentages were LT and Marion Barber. It will be extremely difficult for MJD to keep up the TD pace. A TD per every 28 touches is not bad at all.

 
Bears_Man2 said:
180 1000 10 TD 55 rec 600 3 TD

Again shows he one of the most electrifying players in the NFL. I feel about Taylor in Jax as I do with Deuce in NO. They'll get their #'s and their presence will only make Bush/MJD that have that much more impact and fresher on the carries/catches they do get.
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I think this is a favorable comparison. I know the Jags gave Taylor the ridiculous extension, which made some sense I suppose,... and I don't think MJD is the runner Reggie Bush is, but I only see MJD's carries increasing and I can't see any reason why his goal line touches or receptions will do anything but increase.

That 5.7 avg. ypc looks pretty impressive to me. It isn't like he only had 100 carries. He got the ball just over 10 times a game. If you reverse Taylor and MJD carries (and make some minor adjustments):

2006

Taylor 14.4 carries per game at 4.6 ypc

MJD 10.3 carries at 5.7 ypc

Project 2007

Taylor 10 carries per game at 4.1 ypc = 655

MJD 15 carries per game at 5.1 ypc = 1225

That might be a little inflated but here is what I expect:

225 carries

1120 yards

11 TD

75 recpt.

600 yards

4 TD

 
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I'm completely fascinated by this situation. Jones-Drew's production as a rookie was so phenomenal, no coaching staff in their right mind would try not to get him involved more this season. Yet, as others pointed out, Taylor also remains highly productive and would be wasted in a backup role.

 
Jason Wood said:
I'm completely fascinated by this situation. Jones-Drew's production as a rookie was so phenomenal, no coaching staff in their right mind would try not to get him involved more this season. Yet, as others pointed out, Taylor also remains highly productive and would be wasted in a backup role.
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One thing is for sure - the Jacksonville running game (and specifically the O-line) is damn good.I see MJD getting Taylors rushing yardage and Taylor getting MJDs rushing yardage, with TDs and receiving yardage for both staying the same.

Fred Taylor - 170/850/6 rushing, 25/250/1 receiving

MJD - 230/1200/14 rushing, 50/450/1 receiving

 
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Does anyone know if he will retain some kick return duties? I think he will as long as it is still RBBC, especially since he was highly effective. If he ever becomes the clear cut #1, I'm sure that will go by the wayside.

His production was a bit of an abberation last year, should be tempered a bit.

My projections:

Rushing: 185 carries for 995 yards & 8 TD's

Receiving: 45 catches for 395 yards & 2 TD's

Combined: 230 touches for 1,390 yards & 10 TD's

Good to great RB#2.

 
I would expect an increase in workload, but he won't catch as many teams off guard.

199 attempts 936 rush

55 rec 467 rec

13 total TDs

 
After this season, MJD will be the #1 RB taken in FF drafts for the next five years.

Rushing

335 carries

1742 yards

18 TD's

Receiving

67 recepts

702 yards

3 TD's

Whoever gets this guy can't lose this year. Book it.

 
I think its crazy to expect the same TD production as last year, but I expect him to have a productive season. I have him projected at RB #10. 200/990/9 and 50/470/2.

 
H.K. said:
After this season, MJD will be the #1 RB taken in FF drafts for the next five years. Rushing335 carries1742 yards18 TD'sReceiving67 recepts702 yards3 TD'sWhoever gets this guy can't lose this year. Book it.
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Loftier numbers than I put down. Any thoughts on why?
 
On The Rocks said:
H.K. said:
After this season, MJD will be the #1 RB taken in FF drafts for the next five years. Rushing335 carries1742 yards18 TD'sReceiving67 recepts702 yards3 TD'sWhoever gets this guy can't lose this year. Book it.
Click to expand...
Loftier numbers than I put down. Any thoughts on why?
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Look at MJD in wks 15 & 16 from last season....that's what he did with no Fred Taylor in the line-up. That's what he'll be doing every week next year. Taylor is 31 and basically finished. The odds of him staying healthy are slim, and MJD is better than him anyway. FT will be a non factor this season. MJD is head and shoulders better than FT at this point in time, therefore he has to be the main man.Here's why: Jax was 8-8 last year and outscored their opponents by 97 points....they lost one game to Houston 27-7 and the rest of their seven losses were by a grand total of 34 points, a mere 4.8 points per loss (three were by a field goal). Del Rio knows that he needs to turn those near misses into wins this year. He'll need to score points to do that, even if we take out one blow-out win by Jax over NYJ (41-0), the Jaguars still had an average victory margin of 15 points in the seven other games they won.Del Rio needs to get to the playoffs this season and MJD is his only chance....so he's gonna get a heaping diet of pigskin all year long.
 
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A healthy Fred Taylor will still likely only play 12-13 games in a season at his age. I think he's one of the best RBs in football, but the injuries really took a toll on what should have been a HOF career.

With that in mind I think you'd have to project MJD to have 3 full game workloads added to his estimated split carries in the other 13 games.

I would expect an average of 15 carries a game in the RBBC games and 25 carries for the games I expect Fred to miss so my projections look a little like this:

270 carries 1250 yards 10 TDs

50 recs 500 yards 3 TDs

add in one KR TD for good measure

Not sure where that ranks him, but looks very promising for anyone picking 1.7-1.11 and if he slips to the 2nd, even better.

 
Anyone who drafts MJD in the first round is insanely overly optimistic IMO. They didn't bring back Fred Taylor at $5 mil per to ride the pine for 75% of the game. They brought him back to share in one of the most dangerous RBBCs in the league. I feel the share will be very equal in terms of playing time. And bottomline, while MJD is very talented, I think he is a reach in the 2nd round, and he only starts to be worth the risk in the 3rd or even the 4th (where you won't find him).

Just like Addai last year, MJD owners will find out that when there is an established vet on the team, coaches are very reluctant to "feature" the younger guy when what they have is working. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And Jacksonvile won't just sit Fred Taylor. The guy is a career 4.6 runner and along with MJD also rushed for 5+ last year. Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I've always viewed Fred Taylor as one of the best RBs of his generation. I even have the feeling that Taylor may end up seeing the very slight majority of the touches when all is said and done.

MJD 200/950/9, 50/400/1

Taylor 200/900/5, 20/150/0

 
H.K. said:
After this season, MJD will be the #1 RB taken in FF drafts for the next five years. Rushing335 carries1742 yards18 TD'sReceiving67 recepts702 yards3 TD'sWhoever gets this guy can't lose this year. Book it.
Click to expand...
Wow I just LOLed so hard. Thanks! :)
 
H.K. said:
After this season, MJD will be the #1 RB taken in FF drafts for the next five years. Rushing335 carries1742 yards18 TD'sReceiving67 recepts702 yards3 TD'sWhoever gets this guy can't lose this year. Book it.
Click to expand...
:hophead: For every rookie people are projecting increased production. Except MJD. If Bush is going to make amazing leaps and bounds, this is what MJD would do is he makes the same progress. MJD did not hit his ceiling in his rookie year. Repeat that a few times, and trust H.K.
 
H.K. said:
Look at MJD in wks 15 & 16 from last season....that's what he did with no Fred Taylor in the line-up. That's what he'll be doing every week next year. Taylor is 31 and basically finished. The odds of him staying healthy are slim, and MJD is better than him anyway. FT will be a non factor this season. MJD is head and shoulders better than FT at this point in time, therefore he has to be the main man.Here's why: Jax was 8-8 last year and outscored their opponents by 97 points....they lost one game to Houston 27-7 and the rest of their seven losses were by a grand total of 34 points, a mere 4.8 points per loss (three were by a field goal). Del Rio knows that he needs to turn those near misses into wins this year. He'll need to score points to do that, even if we take out one blow-out win by Jax over NYJ (41-0), the Jaguars still had an average victory margin of 15 points in the seven other games they won.Del Rio needs to get to the playoffs this season and MJD is his only chance....so he's gonna get a heaping diet of pigskin all year long.
Click to expand...
:hophead: Why has RBBC been on the decline?WIN NOW BABY!When you need a win, when the game is on the line, you ride your BEST running back. Sure you want to keep touches down. Sure you want to keep people fresh. But when it comes down to it, you need to win. And to win, you gotta get your best playmaker the ball.MJD is simply the best they have. The best weapon. The biggest playmaker. They're spending all offseason figuring out how to get him the ball. FT/GJ are MJDs supporting cast.
 
Putting H.K.'s tongue-in-cheek projections aside, I think there's an important underlying point people are missing...MJD was a rookie and he was PHENOMENAL. People keep dismissing his performance by saying "he can't duplicate last year's YPR" and "he can't possibly score that many TDs again" yet why are we then so quick to project improvement for other young players?

To me, having seen MJD play a few times last year, how anyone could watch him and not believe he's the real deal is beyond me. What more could they want? Explosive plays, hard nosed running, scoring from all over the field. And unlike many runners, he didn't need 20 carries a game to make a difference.

I've long been a believer that fantasy greatness comes from a combination of Ability + Opportunity. While I admit that Fred Taylor's presence contains MJD's opportunity somewhat, I still contend how any logical coaching staff could look at what MJD last year and not find ways to get him on the field more in 2007.

 
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.

What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .

200 carries, 900 rushing yards

50 receptions, 450 receiving yards

7 total TD

And that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.

If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .

 
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
Click to expand...
7 total TDs? Down from 15 last year?
 
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
Click to expand...
7 total TDs? Down from 15 last year?
Click to expand...
Are TDs not inconsistent with FBG darlings or something? Why not. See Barber, Tiki. Or Green, Ahman. Touchdowns go all over the place.
 
Phlash said:
Jason Wood said:
I'm completely fascinated by this situation. Jones-Drew's production as a rookie was so phenomenal, no coaching staff in their right mind would try not to get him involved more this season. Yet, as others pointed out, Taylor also remains highly productive and would be wasted in a backup role.
Click to expand...
One thing is for sure - the Jacksonville running game (and specifically the O-line) is damn good.I see MJD getting Taylors rushing yardage and Taylor getting MJDs rushing yardage, with TDs and receiving yardage for both staying the same.

Fred Taylor - 170/850/6 rushing, 25/250/1 receiving

MJD - 230/1200/14 rushing, 50/450/1 receiving
Click to expand...
:thumbup: How the hell do you come up with that? Magic 8-ball?
 
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
Click to expand...
7 total TDs? Down from 15 last year?
Click to expand...
Taylor had years with 17 and 14 TD and then fell off to years with 7 or 8. What about Marion Barber . . . he had 16 TD last year. What are people projecting from him and why would we expect him to go backwards but Barber to go backwards (Jeff notwithstanding)?
 
Sabertooth said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
Click to expand...
7 total TDs? Down from 15 last year?
Click to expand...
Are TDs not inconsistent with FBG darlings or something? Why not. See Barber, Tiki. Or Green, Ahman. Touchdowns go all over the place.
Click to expand...
Of course TDs are, by their very nature, inconsistent. However, in this case I believe Jones-Drew is going to see his touches increase, which will at least partially offset a decline in his TD-per-touch ratio.
 
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
Click to expand...
I agree with completely, except for the TDs. MJD is there most effective short yardage and he is the back that will most likely be in the game when the Jags are inside the 10. Taylor has not been effective in short yardage recently, so MJD will not be threatened there. I'd say 10 TDs would be a much more reasonable estimate.
 
Although, I do expect quite a bit of production out of MJD this year, not up to your standards...5.0 yds/carry almost. Some of the projections so far:

185/995 = 5.38

180/1000 = 5.56

230/1080 = 4.70

150/600 = 4.00

225/1120 = 4.98

230/1200 = 5.21

Granted last year he had 5.66 yds per carry, there is a snowball's chance in **** that will happen again. I think the 13 touchdowns is probably more likely.

I have him at 235/1000 (4.2yds/carry) and 10 TD

50 receptions for 400 yds and 3 TD.

Still have him as my 8th ranked Running back though. I think there is definately upside in these numbers. As far as RBBC go, MJD has a lot more upside than any of them.

 
Ilov80s said:
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
Click to expand...
I agree with completely, except for the TDs. MJD is there most effective short yardage and he is the back that will most likely be in the game when the Jags are inside the 10. Taylor has not been effective in short yardage recently, so MJD will not be threatened there. I'd say 10 TDs would be a much more reasonable estimate.
Click to expand...
This is another excellent point. For all of Fred Taylor's accomplishments, he's actually been pulled at times in short yardage and passing situations. Let's look at the Data Dominator for Jags' backs over the last five years:Fred Taylor -- 43 goal line carries, 8 TDs (18.6%)Greg Jones -- 11 goal line carries, 4 TDs (36.4%)Stacey Mack -- 16 goal line carries, 8 TDs (50.0%)Maurice Jones-Drew -- 10 goal line carries, 6 TDs (60.0%)LaBrandon Toefield -- 9 goal line carries, 4 TDs (44.4%)Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala -- 7 goal line carries, 2 TDs (28.6%)Not only is Jones-Drew the most effective goal line rusher, Taylor has been the least effective. In the last 5 years, 85 running backs have logged at least 10 goal line carries...*** Maurice Jones-Drew is tied for 2nd with his 60% conversion rate*** Fred Taylor ranks 81st with his 18.6% conversion rate
 
Cerwin said:
150 carries600 yards5 TDs60 rec.400 yards2 TDsI'm not that big on this guy.
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4 yards per carry? If anything, I think that projection is more ludicrous than H.K.'s (and that's really saying something). Looking back, I can't find a single instance in history where an RB had 150+ carries in Year N and Year N+1, but saw his ypc drop by 1.7. Maybe Chase or Drinen could find one, but let's just say that I'd find it rather surprising.Edit:
Billymac24 said:
I have him at 235/1000 (4.2yds/carry) and 10 TD50 receptions for 400 yds and 3 TD.
Click to expand...
I can't think of any RBs that saw a 1.5 ypc dip with 150+ carries in both years, either.
 
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Jason Wood said:
Sabertooth said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
Click to expand...
7 total TDs? Down from 15 last year?
Click to expand...
Are TDs not inconsistent with FBG darlings or something? Why not. See Barber, Tiki. Or Green, Ahman. Touchdowns go all over the place.
Click to expand...
Of course TDs are, by their very nature, inconsistent. However, in this case I believe Jones-Drew is going to see his touches increase, which will at least partially offset a decline in his TD-per-touch ratio.
Click to expand...
There's no talking to DY when it comes to MJD. He has it coming at him from all angles in his rankings thread. He is trying his best to stand up for his ranking of MJD in the 20's, however few seem to agree with it.
 
Jason Wood said:
Putting H.K.'s tongue-in-cheek projections aside, I think there's an important underlying point people are missing...MJD was a rookie and he was PHENOMENAL. People keep dismissing his performance by saying "he can't duplicate last year's YPR" and "he can't possibly score that many TDs again" yet why are we then so quick to project improvement for other young players? To me, having seen MJD play a few times last year, how anyone could watch him and not believe he's the real deal is beyond me. What more could they want? Explosive plays, hard nosed running, scoring from all over the field. And unlike many runners, he didn't need 20 carries a game to make a difference. I've long been a believer that fantasy greatness comes from a combination of Ability + Opportunity. While I admit that Fred Taylor's presence contains MJD's opportunity somewhat, I still contend how any logical coaching staff could look at what MJD last year and not find ways to get him on the field more in 2007.
Click to expand...
:coffee:
 
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
Click to expand...
7 total TDs? Down from 15 last year?
Click to expand...
Since you brought this up, by my math, there have been 43 RBs that had 15 TD one year and single digit TDs the next. That could have been for any number of reasons.
 
Jason Wood said:
Putting H.K.'s tongue-in-cheek projections aside, I think there's an important underlying point people are missing...MJD was a rookie and he was PHENOMENAL. People keep dismissing his performance by saying "he can't duplicate last year's YPR" and "he can't possibly score that many TDs again" yet why are we then so quick to project improvement for other young players? To me, having seen MJD play a few times last year, how anyone could watch him and not believe he's the real deal is beyond me. What more could they want? Explosive plays, hard nosed running, scoring from all over the field. And unlike many runners, he didn't need 20 carries a game to make a difference. I've long been a believer that fantasy greatness comes from a combination of Ability + Opportunity. While I admit that Fred Taylor's presence contains MJD's opportunity somewhat, I still contend how any logical coaching staff could look at what MJD last year and not find ways to get him on the field more in 2007.
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Then why are you projecting his YPC to drop from 5.7 to 4.8? Also, you have his total touches going up by 68, but his TDs dropping by 3. That's a slip from a TD per every 14 touches to a TD every 23 touches.I agree with you that he was PHENOMENAL last season, but to project any player with a YPC above 5.5 or a TD/per touch rate below 20 is really making a leap of faith; even you didn't do it.On the flip-side, I think it's silly to say he's going to drop down to a 3.5-4.0 YPC or score only a handful of TDs (possible); somewhere in the middle is more realistic.Look at the other rookies from last year.Bush - For his immense talent, don't you think his YPC increases from 3.6; everyone on the staff has him with a 4.0 or above YPC.Maroney - If healthy, how does his production not go up woth Dillon gone. Maybe his averages go down, but he'll have many more opportunities.I feel most are being fairly realistic on MJD. With Taylor still in the mix, expecting more than 1500 total yards and 10 TDs is a reach; unless you feel MJD gets the bulk of the work, and H.K. (joking or not) is the only one prediction over 250 carries.
 
Jason Wood said:
Putting H.K.'s tongue-in-cheek projections aside, I think there's an important underlying point people are missing...MJD was a rookie and he was PHENOMENAL. People keep dismissing his performance by saying "he can't duplicate last year's YPR" and "he can't possibly score that many TDs again" yet why are we then so quick to project improvement for other young players? To me, having seen MJD play a few times last year, how anyone could watch him and not believe he's the real deal is beyond me. What more could they want? Explosive plays, hard nosed running, scoring from all over the field. And unlike many runners, he didn't need 20 carries a game to make a difference. I've long been a believer that fantasy greatness comes from a combination of Ability + Opportunity. While I admit that Fred Taylor's presence contains MJD's opportunity somewhat, I still contend how any logical coaching staff could look at what MJD last year and not find ways to get him on the field more in 2007.
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I agree completely! I argued last year that he would end up top ten and I think he finishes top five this year. He has all the attributes you mentioned, as well as being a great team player. Fred Taylor actually likes sharing the backfield with MJD because of how respectful he is and how supportive he is when Fred is on the field. The guy has it all and will be utilized heavily this year. Add that to a great OL and he will have a very nice year.270/1430/15 (5.3YPC)64/640/4
 
The Football Freak said:
Jason Wood said:
Putting H.K.'s tongue-in-cheek projections aside, I think there's an important underlying point people are missing...MJD was a rookie and he was PHENOMENAL. People keep dismissing his performance by saying "he can't duplicate last year's YPR" and "he can't possibly score that many TDs again" yet why are we then so quick to project improvement for other young players? To me, having seen MJD play a few times last year, how anyone could watch him and not believe he's the real deal is beyond me. What more could they want? Explosive plays, hard nosed running, scoring from all over the field. And unlike many runners, he didn't need 20 carries a game to make a difference. I've long been a believer that fantasy greatness comes from a combination of Ability + Opportunity. While I admit that Fred Taylor's presence contains MJD's opportunity somewhat, I still contend how any logical coaching staff could look at what MJD last year and not find ways to get him on the field more in 2007.
Click to expand...
I agree completely! I argued last year that he would end up top ten and I think he finishes top five this year. He has all the attributes you mentioned, as well as being a great team player. Fred Taylor actually likes sharing the backfield with MJD because of how respectful he is and how supportive he is when Fred is on the field. The guy has it all and will be utilized heavily this year. Add that to a great OL and he will have a very nice year.270/1430/15 (5.3YPC)64/640/4
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Would you take him at 1.5 ?
 
Buddy Ball 2K3 said:
The Football Freak said:
Jason Wood said:
Putting H.K.'s tongue-in-cheek projections aside, I think there's an important underlying point people are missing...MJD was a rookie and he was PHENOMENAL. People keep dismissing his performance by saying "he can't duplicate last year's YPR" and "he can't possibly score that many TDs again" yet why are we then so quick to project improvement for other young players? To me, having seen MJD play a few times last year, how anyone could watch him and not believe he's the real deal is beyond me. What more could they want? Explosive plays, hard nosed running, scoring from all over the field. And unlike many runners, he didn't need 20 carries a game to make a difference. I've long been a believer that fantasy greatness comes from a combination of Ability + Opportunity. While I admit that Fred Taylor's presence contains MJD's opportunity somewhat, I still contend how any logical coaching staff could look at what MJD last year and not find ways to get him on the field more in 2007.
Click to expand...
I agree completely! I argued last year that he would end up top ten and I think he finishes top five this year. He has all the attributes you mentioned, as well as being a great team player. Fred Taylor actually likes sharing the backfield with MJD because of how respectful he is and how supportive he is when Fred is on the field. The guy has it all and will be utilized heavily this year. Add that to a great OL and he will have a very nice year.270/1430/15 (5.3YPC)64/640/4
Click to expand...
Would you take him at 1.5 ?
Click to expand...
I'm keeping him in the 6th, but if I was drafting him I would let him drop and try to get him at the turn of the 1st and 2nd. He is going to be undervalued - in my opinion - so that is probably a good draft slot to try and land him; the people waiting until late second or 3rd to pick him up may not have a shot. If you do have a shot at him that late, snatch him up, because he could be the kind of pick that lands you a championship.
 
The Football Freak said:
Buddy Ball 2K3 said:
The Football Freak said:
Jason Wood said:
Putting H.K.'s tongue-in-cheek projections aside, I think there's an important underlying point people are missing...MJD was a rookie and he was PHENOMENAL. People keep dismissing his performance by saying "he can't duplicate last year's YPR" and "he can't possibly score that many TDs again" yet why are we then so quick to project improvement for other young players? To me, having seen MJD play a few times last year, how anyone could watch him and not believe he's the real deal is beyond me. What more could they want? Explosive plays, hard nosed running, scoring from all over the field. And unlike many runners, he didn't need 20 carries a game to make a difference. I've long been a believer that fantasy greatness comes from a combination of Ability + Opportunity. While I admit that Fred Taylor's presence contains MJD's opportunity somewhat, I still contend how any logical coaching staff could look at what MJD last year and not find ways to get him on the field more in 2007.
Click to expand...
I agree completely! I argued last year that he would end up top ten and I think he finishes top five this year. He has all the attributes you mentioned, as well as being a great team player. Fred Taylor actually likes sharing the backfield with MJD because of how respectful he is and how supportive he is when Fred is on the field. The guy has it all and will be utilized heavily this year. Add that to a great OL and he will have a very nice year.270/1430/15 (5.3YPC)64/640/4
Click to expand...
Would you take him at 1.5 ?
Click to expand...
I'm keeping him in the 6th, but if I was drafting him I would let him drop and try to get him at the turn of the 1st and 2nd. He is going to be undervalued - in my opinion - so that is probably a good draft slot to try and land him; the people waiting until late second or 3rd to pick him up may not have a shot. If you do have a shot at him that late, snatch him up, because he could be the kind of pick that lands you a championship.
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Ok, I agree with that. I would have no problem taking MJD at the top of the 2nd round.
 
Jason Wood said:
Ilov80s said:
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
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I agree with completely, except for the TDs. MJD is there most effective short yardage and he is the back that will most likely be in the game when the Jags are inside the 10. Taylor has not been effective in short yardage recently, so MJD will not be threatened there. I'd say 10 TDs would be a much more reasonable estimate.
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This is another excellent point. For all of Fred Taylor's accomplishments, he's actually been pulled at times in short yardage and passing situations. Let's look at the Data Dominator for Jags' backs over the last five years:Fred Taylor -- 43 goal line carries, 8 TDs (18.6%)Greg Jones -- 11 goal line carries, 4 TDs (36.4%)Stacey Mack -- 16 goal line carries, 8 TDs (50.0%)Maurice Jones-Drew -- 10 goal line carries, 6 TDs (60.0%)LaBrandon Toefield -- 9 goal line carries, 4 TDs (44.4%)Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala -- 7 goal line carries, 2 TDs (28.6%)Not only is Jones-Drew the most effective goal line rusher, Taylor has been the least effective. In the last 5 years, 85 running backs have logged at least 10 goal line carries...*** Maurice Jones-Drew is tied for 2nd with his 60% conversion rate*** Fred Taylor ranks 81st with his 18.6% conversion rate
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Stats can be construed anyway. 10 carries from the 9 yard line are a lot different from 10 carries inside the 2 yard line. Nobody has mentioned that Greg Jones will be back. He will vulture some of the goalline carries. Taylor will still be the starter this year and now that they know that MJD can spell him more than adequately they will do so. I look for MJD to put up numbers along Reggie's from last year. Good, but not great and definitely not worth a pick in the first round or possibly even second unless you in slot 1.01 or 1.02 for keeper purposes.
 
weasel3515 said:
Jason Wood said:
Ilov80s said:
David Yudkin said:
I have posted tons and tons on the MJD.Taylor situation this offseson and have already outlined 1,001 reasons why I think MJD is overhyped for this year. I do agree that he is a very talented and gifted player, but I just don't see him getting a much bigger workload this year. I also agree that with a full time workload he could be a top producer.What I do see this year (again for a lot of reasons) is MJD getting a slight uptick in workload but not doing as well with those opportunities. Some may think I'm nuts on this but . . .200 carries, 900 rushing yards50 receptions, 450 receiving yards7 total TDAnd that once again is having Taylor miss a few games.If I have time to cut and past all my other posts I will . . .
Click to expand...
I agree with completely, except for the TDs. MJD is there most effective short yardage and he is the back that will most likely be in the game when the Jags are inside the 10. Taylor has not been effective in short yardage recently, so MJD will not be threatened there. I'd say 10 TDs would be a much more reasonable estimate.
Click to expand...
This is another excellent point. For all of Fred Taylor's accomplishments, he's actually been pulled at times in short yardage and passing situations. Let's look at the Data Dominator for Jags' backs over the last five years:Fred Taylor -- 43 goal line carries, 8 TDs (18.6%)Greg Jones -- 11 goal line carries, 4 TDs (36.4%)Stacey Mack -- 16 goal line carries, 8 TDs (50.0%)Maurice Jones-Drew -- 10 goal line carries, 6 TDs (60.0%)LaBrandon Toefield -- 9 goal line carries, 4 TDs (44.4%)Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala -- 7 goal line carries, 2 TDs (28.6%)Not only is Jones-Drew the most effective goal line rusher, Taylor has been the least effective. In the last 5 years, 85 running backs have logged at least 10 goal line carries...*** Maurice Jones-Drew is tied for 2nd with his 60% conversion rate*** Fred Taylor ranks 81st with his 18.6% conversion rate
Click to expand...
Stats can be construed anyway. 10 carries from the 9 yard line are a lot different from 10 carries inside the 2 yard line. Nobody has mentioned that Greg Jones will be back. He will vulture some of the goalline carries. Taylor will still be the starter this year and now that they know that MJD can spell him more than adequately they will do so. I look for MJD to put up numbers along Reggie's from last year. Good, but not great and definitely not worth a pick in the first round or possibly even second unless you in slot 1.01 or 1.02 for keeper purposes.
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For the stats above I used carries at the 5-yard line and closer.As to Greg Jones, I will be surprised if he makes the team. That will come down to whether he can win a spot as a fullback, in my estimation. As where in Greg Jones' history did he become a dominant goal line option? Because he's big and slow?
 
Cerwin said:
150 carries

600 yards

5 TDs

60 rec.

400 yards

2 TDs

I'm not that big on this guy.
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Spoken like a guy who did not have MJD on his team last year. As an owner who could count on him for at least one, sometimes two touchdowns a game, he was a STUD. All it takes is that one guy you pick up in a late round of the draft or on waivers that makes the difference between making the playoffs and going back to rooting for your favorite NFL team in December. As a late 11th or 12th rounder (as he was last year), you really can't ask for more from a player. And the owner that gave up on him week 3 last year is REALLY kicking themselves for that one (a genius decision as far as I'm concerned). Since MJD won't be the VALUE that he was last year, he probably won't be as appealing. but 600 yards and 5 TDs? Where did you get that whacked projection? Some kind of personal issue with Jacksonville? Try something more like 350 yards and 13 TDs. And for a traditional-style non-yardage TD-only league, that, my friend, is a STUD. I don't see him sucking lots of mid-field carries from Fred Taylor unless FT is okay with that and needs a breather (he ain't no spring chicken), but you cannot deny MJD has wheels, and hes not afraid to open the entire six-pack of whoop-### when they get down on the goal line. Oh yeah, and FT has this little problem with staying HEALTHY all season long. :shrug:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Jason Wood said:
For the stats above I used carries at the 5-yard line and closer.As to Greg Jones, I will be surprised if he makes the team. That will come down to whether he can win a spot as a fullback, in my estimation. As where in Greg Jones' history did he become a dominant goal line option? Because he's big and slow?
Click to expand...
Amen, my brother. Big and Slow does not mean Mike Alstott, it means Big and Slow. The 'Fridge was not a key FF acquisition and Mike Alstott (or any other GL back) is not likely to score 13 rushing TDs in a season. Period. Give MJD his props, he earned them.
 
I am still on the fence with MJD, however I feel that he is in a very favorable division to allow him to put up fantasy points. It's not like he has to face the Jag's run D. On the other side, he could very well have hit, or be near his ceiling as a rookie. Randy Moss did.

 
waylander said:
I am still on the fence with MJD, however I feel that he is in a very favorable division to allow him to put up fantasy points. It's not like he has to face the Jag's run D. On the other side, he could very well have hit, or be near his ceiling as a rookie. Randy Moss did.
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Yeah, it would be horrible if his career mirrored Randy Moss. 17, 11, 15, 10, 7, 17, 13 tds over the next 7 years. One of the best WRs in the league over that stretch. You're right, I'm now on the fence too.
 
Barry Sanders, a career 5.0 yards per carry runner and arguably one of the best RBs of all time, only had 2 back-to-back seasons of over 5.0 ypc in his career. That's a ten season career, and only twice was he back to back over 5 ypc. In two seasons out of ten was his ypc 5.7 or above. In the seasons following those two 5.7 ypc seasons, we see that Sanders dropped from 5.7 to 4.8(.9 ypc) and 6.1 to 4.3 (1.8 ypc). Not only should a big drop in ypc for MJD be possible, it should be expected!

Ask yourself, is MJD such a game-changing talent that he should be in a new category all by himself? Is his system, line, and surrounding talent that much better, or is it him? Compare to some of the previous generation's stars, and his contemporary peers and we see.

Back-to-back 5+ ypc seasons:

Sanders - twice (10 years)

Faulk - twice (12 years)

Tomlinson - never (6 years)

---

5.5 or greater ypc seasons:

Sanders - twice

Faulk - once

Tomlinson - never

---

All of these standout players were considered workhorse RBs for virtually their entire careers. And MJD is not expected to see the 300+ carries this season, so many I am not comparing apples to apples. I just find it strange that so many are so willing to give this guy a 5+ ypc average next year. My feeling, is that MJD had just an unusually good season last year in terms of yardage, and that there is a very great chance that we will see his percentages decline enough that he will be LESS productive next season on MORE touches. Because traditionally, one would think that an increase in touches would result in a decrease in effectiveness correct? I almost like to think of it as the Kevan Barlow effect.

What has MJD shown to demonstrate that he is the equal of some of the greatest RBs in the game? The TDs, which I think can be considered pretty damn fluky, should be a much stronger argument for MJD than the ypc averages we are seeing in this thread. Give him 200/850/15 and I will believe it a lot more than 220/1200/8

 
H.K. said:
After this season, MJD will be the #1 RB taken in FF drafts for the next five years. Rushing335 carries1742 yards18 TD'sReceiving67 recepts702 yards3 TD'sWhoever gets this guy can't lose this year. Book it.
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So would you bet me on these projections? Assuming that these are you honest projections Drew should have a 50% chance of outdoing these numbers and a 50% chance of coming up short. Ill take the under for $500 or whatever amount if you want to bet on your man Drew.
 
kensat30 said:
Barry Sanders, a career 5.0 yards per carry runner and arguably one of the best RBs of all time, only had 2 back-to-back seasons of over 5.0 ypc in his career. That's a ten season career, and only twice was he back to back over 5 ypc. In two seasons out of ten was his ypc 5.7 or above. In the seasons following those two 5.7 ypc seasons, we see that Sanders dropped from 5.7 to 4.8(.9 ypc) and 6.1 to 4.3 (1.8 ypc). Not only should a big drop in ypc for MJD be possible, it should be expected!Ask yourself, is MJD such a game-changing talent that he should be in a new category all by himself? Is his system, line, and surrounding talent that much better, or is it him? Compare to some of the previous generation's stars, and his contemporary peers and we see.Back-to-back 5+ ypc seasons:Sanders - twice (10 years) Faulk - twice (12 years)Tomlinson - never (6 years)---5.5 or greater ypc seasons:Sanders - twiceFaulk - onceTomlinson - never---All of these standout players were considered workhorse RBs for virtually their entire careers. And MJD is not expected to see the 300+ carries this season, so many I am not comparing apples to apples. I just find it strange that so many are so willing to give this guy a 5+ ypc average next year. My feeling, is that MJD had just an unusually good season last year in terms of yardage, and that there is a very great chance that we will see his percentages decline enough that he will be LESS productive next season on MORE touches. Because traditionally, one would think that an increase in touches would result in a decrease in effectiveness correct? I almost like to think of it as the Kevan Barlow effect. What has MJD shown to demonstrate that he is the equal of some of the greatest RBs in the game? The TDs, which I think can be considered pretty damn fluky, should be a much stronger argument for MJD than the ypc averages we are seeing in this thread. Give him 200/850/15 and I will believe it a lot more than 220/1200/8
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Didnt Portis just put up back to back 5.5ypc seasons in row, his first two years in the league?
 
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