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Player Spotlight: Clinton Portis (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Clinton Portis Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
I firmly believe Clinton Portis is going to be a force this year. I understand that Betts is there, but he will only take some carries from Portis in middle of game. Portis will be the man in middle and end. He could be real value in redraft leagues because I believe he will fall and someone will be very lucky to get him in the mid second or end of second. The Redskins should be a much improved team and we saw what their running game could do the 2nd half of season with Betts. Portis is simply better than Betts when healthy and will do better than Betts.

300 carries 1487 yards 12 Tds

30 reception 245 yards 2 TD's.

 
Once upon a fantasy time, like last year, Clinton Portis was a potential #1 overall pick, a monster who averaged 1500 yards a year for his first four years in the league. No more. After three injuries, he is half of an RBBC with Ladell Betts, and is going to see much less carries than in past years. This will help keep him healthy, help Al Saunders keep his job, but not help your fantasy team if you take him in the first two rounds.

260 1100 7 tds.

 
I've commented a bunch on Portis this offseason. I'll just give projections:

300/1335/12

30/225/1

 
if he stays healthy, he could have a monster season.

a shoulder injury for a hard hitting RB like Portis, might be hard to overcome, not to mention the chronic knee tendonitis he has.

risk far outweighs his value, imo..I think he'll go too early in fantasy drafts. there is NO WAY, Betts regresses to benchwarmer status, he's earned time by performing well last season.

He'll see PLENTY of action, thus, cutting into Portis' playing time. Hard to see CP going over 1200 yards rushing with Betts hanging around.

are we even sure Portis will be ready for opening day?

Portis

150 carries, 630 yards, 4.2 per carry/2 tds.

hate to predict injuries, but, I can't see him staying healthy.

if healthy, I'll give him 1050 yards, 250 carries, 4.2 per carry/ 6 tds.

this has RBBC written all over it.

 
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nygiants56 said:
if he stays healthy, he could have a monster season.

a shoulder injury for a hard hitting RB like Portis, might be hard to overcome, not to mention the chronic knee tendonitis he has.

risk far outweighs his value, imo..I think he'll go too early in fantasy drafts. there is NO WAY, Betts becomes a benchwarmer this season, he's earned extra playing time by performing well last season. He'll see PLENTY of action, thus, cutting into Portis' playing time. Hard to see CP going over 1200 yards rushing with Betts hanging around.

are we even sure Portis will be ready for opening day?

Portis

150 carries, 630 yards, 4.2 per carry/2 tds.

hate to predict injuries, but, I can't see him staying healthy.

if healthy, I'll give him 1050 yards, 250 carries, 4.2 per carry/ 6 tds.

this has RBBC written all over it.
Click to expand...
Not since his rookie year has Portis's fantasy value been questionable. The presense of Betts, who performed very well last year while Portis was out, as well as his shoulder and knee injuries all have contributed to this. Al Saunders offense which we all know is a running backs wet dream but it also grinds them up. The issue with drafting Portis this year is not whether he will produce but how long can he stay healthy. This means that if you do draft Portis be sure to get Betts also. Portis is a mid second round draft choice in most formats this year but he has the potential to perform well above that spot if injury can be avoided. Caveat emptor ("Let the buyer beware").My Prediction

1200 yards, 280 carries 6 tds.

 
nygiants56 said:
there is NO WAY, Betts regresses to benchwarmer status, he's earned time by performing well last season.
Click to expand...
I think that's a bit of a leap of faith, there. Betts only got a chance to perform due to injury. I think it's far more likely that Betts #s go down from '06 than it is that they remain the same/go up.I do agree Betts will see more touches, but it's not as if this is going to be a 50/50 split. Betts will likely get an increased role on third downs and probably get more work in games that the Skins have in hand in the 2nd half in order to keep Portis healthy. I can easily see that happening. However, "more touches", in my mind, probably means he sees 40% of them instead of the 25-30% he'd have seen had Portis never been injured in '06. I like Ladell Betts. I really do....but he's not as good as Clinton Portis and I'm certain that Gibbs and Saunders realize this. It's a pretty safe bet that a Saunders offense will run at least somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 times, perhaps more. As long as he's healthy, I believe Portis is going to get 60% of that at minimum. Not because Ladell Betts sucks, but because Clinton Portis is better than Ladell Betts if they're both 100%.Portis getting 60% of the load: 300-320 carries, 1200-1300 yards and 12-15 TDs. 20-25 catches for 200ish yards and maybe a TD or 2.I see his catches suffering due to Betts seeing more action in that department in obvious passing situations. I CAN'T see his rushing totals, uninjured, falling under 1200 yards as the RB1 in a Saunders offense. Not unless that entire offensive unit collapsed.If Portis stayed healthy enough and they choose to feed him a larger portion of the carries pie I can see him topping 1500 yards on the ground and have an excellent shot at 15 rushing TDs.
 
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288 carries.

1296 yards.

11 rush TD.

43 receptions.

301 yards.

1 rec TD.

3 pass attempts.

2 completions.

24 pass yards.

1 pass td.

Carries should be more than 15 a game, but less than 20. I used 18. Skins would like to try to run 30-35 times a game. Obviously, this is not always possible. I see the rushing divided with 16-20 carries for Portis and 8-12 to Betts in a typical game. ARE will run on occassion, as will Sellers, Blaylock, Campbell, etc for the remainder.

I'm (very) conservatively forecasting 4.5 yards per carry for Portis. Last year I think he was only at 4.1, but Betts averaged 4.7 once the Skin's line started to click. I believe Portis can easily average the same, but I'm being conservative at 4.5.

TD are hard to say, last year CP had 7 rush td on 127 carries. That would project to over 15. I'm backing off because his history says he's averages a TD every 35+ rushes with the Skins and every 26 rushes for his carreer. I'm projecting based on his carreer stats, so 11 TD from 288 rushes.

Receiving, I see CP getting a decent number of looks. Last year, Betts & Portis had 79 targets. I'm giving Portis a little more than half, because I see him being on the field more than Betts. I think both will be 3 down players.

Passing stats for Portis shouldn't be included in any realistic forecast.

Not including the passing stats,my numbers come out to about 232 points using FBG scoring - which would put CP 8th in the FBG rankings. I don't doubt that CP could finish 8th (or higher).

 
One thing that seems to be forgotten in this is Betts fumbled 5 times in his last 8 games last year...2 pretty much cost the Redskins the game.

 
stanmarino13 said:
One thing that seems to be forgotten in this is Betts fumbled 5 times in his last 8 games last year...2 pretty much cost the Redskins the game.
Click to expand...
:lmao: Betts fumbles once every 61 touches throughout his career.Portis fumbles once every 96 touches throughout his career and only once every 175 touches the last two seasons where I've noticed he seems to be making an extra effort to hold onto the ball.
 
Im still very high on Portis. But with the emergence of Betts last year, and the propensity for Portis to get dinged I think Washington will try to limit his carries to at most 20 a game. He should still get most of the goalline love and I also expect him to get quite a few receptions and dumpoffs from Campbell. Bottom line is Portis is an elite back and will be used like one by Washington. If you can get him as a RB2 you should celebrate as I think he will put up late RB1 numbers.

300 carries, 1300 yds, 10 tds, 45 rec, 300 yds, 2 tds

 
dgreen said:
perry147 said:
My Prediction

1200 yards, 280 carries 6 tds.
Click to expand...
Why so low on TDs? Someone else getting the rushing TDs or does the whole offense just not score much?
Click to expand...
Al Saunders does not have a history to giving the GL work to a seperate back, but I just can not see CP not getting worn out later in the year and Saunders deciding to give Betts some of those carries. Just call it a hunch.
 
perry147 said:
dgreen said:
perry147 said:
My Prediction

1200 yards, 280 carries 6 tds.
Click to expand...
Why so low on TDs? Someone else getting the rushing TDs or does the whole offense just not score much?
Click to expand...
Al Saunders does not have a history to giving the GL work to a seperate back, but I just can not see CP not getting worn out later in the year and Saunders deciding to give Betts some of those carries. Just call it a hunch.
Click to expand...
I don't think Saunders picks who is in the game.
 
dgreen said:
perry147 said:
dgreen said:
perry147 said:
My Prediction

1200 yards, 280 carries 6 tds.
Click to expand...
Why so low on TDs? Someone else getting the rushing TDs or does the whole offense just not score much?
Click to expand...
Al Saunders does not have a history to giving the GL work to a seperate back, but I just can not see CP not getting worn out later in the year and Saunders deciding to give Betts some of those carries. Just call it a hunch.
Click to expand...
I don't think Saunders picks who is in the game.
Click to expand...
Well in that case the Skins are in for a long season. Saunders has proven that he can make almost any back successful and if Gibbs starts calling plays again the running game is going to be dead. Portis is not the type back you ram into the middle of the line (ala Riggins).
 
perry147 said:
dgreen said:
perry147 said:
dgreen said:
perry147 said:
My Prediction

1200 yards, 280 carries 6 tds.
Click to expand...
Why so low on TDs? Someone else getting the rushing TDs or does the whole offense just not score much?
Click to expand...
Al Saunders does not have a history to giving the GL work to a seperate back, but I just can not see CP not getting worn out later in the year and Saunders deciding to give Betts some of those carries. Just call it a hunch.
Click to expand...
I don't think Saunders picks who is in the game.
Click to expand...
Well in that case the Skins are in for a long season. Saunders has proven that he can make almost any back successful and if Gibbs starts calling plays again the running game is going to be dead. Portis is not the type back you ram into the middle of the line (ala Riggins).
Click to expand...
:bag: Calling plays <> picking who is in the game

The way it's worked in the past, and by all indications it will work again, is Portis pretty much calls the substitutions at RB. When he wants a rest, he gets it. When he wants back in, he's in. Luckily for Betts, Portis is a Betts fan and gives him a decent amount of playing time.

 
nygiants56 said:
not to mention the chronic knee tendonitis he has.
Click to expand...
Link?
nygiants56 said:
there is NO WAY, Betts regresses to benchwarmer status, he's earned time by performing well last season.

...

this has RBBC written all over it.
Click to expand...
End of mini-camp article.I count at least 7 different instances that state, in no uncertain terms, that Portis is the starter and Betts is the backup. And before anyone gets caught up in the article title ("For the Redskins, Betts Is A No. 1 Back in Disguise") the second paragraph best describes the point of the article -

For Ladell Betts, the running back who also enjoyed a breakout season that proved he could be the top running back, minicamp isn't about creating a mandate but finding comfort in coming off the best year of his career knowing it will not produce an accompanying promotion this season.
Click to expand...
nygiants56 said:
are we even sure Portis will be ready for opening day?
Click to expand...
Portis is ahead of schedule, even participating in mini-camp drills three weeks ago.
 
I expect Kid Bro Sweets to bounce back with a vengeance this year and remind everyone why he's an elite back.

285 carries

1,450 yards

14 Tds

35 Receptions

300 yards

3 TDs

 
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Harjiran said:
I expect Kid Bro Sweets to bounce back with a vengeance this year and remind everyone why he's an elite back.285 carries1,450 yards14 Tds35 Receptions300 yards3 TDs
Click to expand...
:towelwave: And he could do even better if the QB and Defense improves as much as I think it can this year.
 
nygiants56 said:
if he stays healthy, he could have a monster season.

a shoulder injury for a hard hitting RB like Portis, might be hard to overcome, not to mention the chronic knee tendonitis he has.

risk far outweighs his value, imo..I think he'll go too early in fantasy drafts. there is NO WAY, Betts regresses to benchwarmer status, he's earned time by performing well last season.

He'll see PLENTY of action, thus, cutting into Portis' playing time. Hard to see CP going over 1200 yards rushing with Betts hanging around.

are we even sure Portis will be ready for opening day?

Portis

150 carries, 630 yards, 4.2 per carry/2 tds.

hate to predict injuries, but, I can't see him staying healthy.

if healthy, I'll give him 1050 yards, 250 carries, 4.2 per carry/ 6 tds.

this has RBBC written all over it.
Click to expand...
I think he looked fine after the shoulder injury last year with 7 td's. The knee is being way overblown, that won't keep him off the field and he's never had knee problems or anything having to do with his legs and he's still only 26 years old so his recovery time should be quicker than an older rb.I don't know why you think Betts earned playing time with his fumbling problems and his inability to get td's. He did very good for a back up but that is all her is .........A BACK UP

Unless he gets hurt from today until the start of the season he'll definelty be ready to go. If I get Portis in the mid 2nd I'll be very :excited: .

I'll go with #'s like this

300 carries

1300 yards

25 catches (low # of catches due to Betts being a better recieving option)

150 yards

14 total td's

Think what you want about Betts but at the end of the day just ask yourself who is more talented and I think you'll get an easy answer.

 
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Betts success last year will allow Gibbs to keep some wear off Portis by using Betts more than last year. Portis is still the man here and should get about 270 carries for 1215 (10 TD) and 35 rec for 240 (1 TD). Pretty sweet for a guy you will be able to get as a #2 back probably. The shoulder is scary, but the upside makes him worth the risk after round 1. 1400+ yards and 11+ TD probably puts him about RB #10, and probably a great buy this year.

 
amphibianbri said:
Betts success last year will allow Gibbs to keep some wear off Portis by using Betts more than last year. Portis is still the man here and should get about 270 carries for 1215 (10 TD) and 35 rec for 240 (1 TD). Pretty sweet for a guy you will be able to get as a #2 back probably. The shoulder is scary, but the upside makes him worth the risk after round 1. 1400+ yards and 11+ TD probably puts him about RB #10, and probably a great buy this year.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: FWIW, I picked Portis as my RB2 behind Willie Parker at pick #18 (14 team league) and I have him as my RB2 behind LT in a dynasty league. I'm hoping and expecting big things, despite Betts taking some of the workload.320 total touches1500 total yards15 total TDs
 
Don't be fooled people, Betts is a backup and he will get carries but it will not be a RBBC. Portis just happened to get hurt last year. Go with the talent..the Redskins will. Portis>>>Betts. I would do backflips if I could somehow get Portis as my #2 back.

 
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cscmtp said:
Harjiran said:
I expect Kid Bro Sweets to bounce back with a vengeance this year and remind everyone why he's an elite back.285 carries1,450 yards14 Tds35 Receptions300 yards3 TDs
Click to expand...
:) And he could do even better if the QB and Defense improves as much as I think it can this year.
Click to expand...
Momentary hijack, as an aside: One poor season and we suddenly forget how good Gregg Williams' defenses are historically. The man is a genius. The Skins didn't sign any high-profile FAs on the DL so people want to freak out but Griffin, Golston, and an immensely improved Anthony Montgomery should nail down the line of scrimmage and clog the running lanes while Springs, Taylor and Landry patrol the secondary, pressure the QB and hunt heads. The LBs will be solid if not spectacular but the scheme is in place. I'd be shocked if the Skins' defense weren't back in the top ten this year. Moreover, Jason Campbell will be this year's Phillip Rivers and no one sees it coming. So nice to be under the radar. Clinton Portis will reap the rewards. I think the Redskins will win the NFC East this year, but one thing's for certain: the Giants will suck. Donkey. Bye bye, Tiki. Good luck, Eli.
 
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Clinton Portis slipped some in drafts last year due to injuries. Similarly, this year he is slipping, partially based on last year's injuries and partly on Ladell Bett's success as his replacement. I think that Ladell Bett's success is a better indicator of the Redskin offensive line improvement and the team's familiarity with their offensive system that will lead to Portis success in 07.

The Redskins RB carriers in the past three years have fluctuated. In 04, there were 433 and that increased to 470 in 05. The total decreased last year back to 427, possibly as their bell-cow back was out and their team lost more and played more catch-up.

The lead RB was Portis is both 04 and 05, but then Betts in 06 as Portis was injured. A closer look at 04, Portis had 343 carries for 1315 yards and 5 TDs, Betts with 90 for 371 and 1 TD. The percentage split in 04 was Portis 79.2% and 20.8%. Then in 05, Portis had 352 for 1516 and 11 TDs while Betts had 89 for 338 and 1 TD. Percentage split was Portis 79.8% and 20.2%. Very similar to the previous year. Even as Portis recovered from injury, Portis had 121 carries to 51 by Betts in the games that both played last year, a percentage split of 70.3% for Portis and 29.7% by Betts.

I look for a Portis resurgence and Betts slips back to about 25% of the carries. I think that Portis could be a key championship piece for the early draft position teams as he is added in the late second or early third rounds to the LT or S Jackson teams.

Clinton Portis 325 carries 1365 yards and 8 TDs and 35 catches for 250 yards and 1 TD.

 
AnonymousBob said:
He's been in the league five years. He has started all sixteen games in only one of those five seasons.
Click to expand...
2002 - 162003 - 132004 - 152005 - 162006 - 8Before last season he missed 4 games in 4 seasons. Last year he would have only missed up to 4 (with a broken hand which i think most would agree is a freak injury that will have 0 affect on his overall health going forward) if the Skins weren't out of the playoff race.He missed 0 games with a seperated shoulder. He plays through injuries.
 
OCC said:
AnonymousBob said:
He's been in the league five years. He has started all sixteen games in only one of those five seasons.
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :hophead: Your intelligence gathering capabilities are only rivaled by the Bush administration.
Click to expand...
Let's leave the politics for the Free For All, thank you very much. I'm a fan of Portis this year.
 
AnonymousBob said:
OCC said:
AnonymousBob said:
He's been in the league five years. He has started all sixteen games in only one of those five seasons.
Click to expand...
:blush: :( :) Your intelligence gathering capabilities are only rivaled by the Bush administration.
Click to expand...
Let's leave the politics for the Free For All, thank you very much. I'm a fan of Portis this year.
Click to expand...
Didn't feel like responding to the post about missing 4 games in 4 seasons? Clearly Portis is injury prone. :hophead: :hophead: :hophead:
 
rzrback77 said:
Clinton Portis slipped some in drafts last year due to injuries. Similarly, this year he is slipping, partially based on last year's injuries and partly on Ladell Bett's success as his replacement. I think that Ladell Bett's success is a better indicator of the Redskin offensive line improvement and the team's familiarity with their offensive system that will lead to Portis success in 07.Clinton Portis 325 carries 1365 yards and 8 TDs and 35 catches for 250 yards and 1 TD.
Click to expand...
Excellent post and analysis. I'll ride with similar numbers.
 
If you ask me, you can't ignore Betts' numbers last year. He performed excellent down the stretch, and against some stout defenses none the less. While there is no question that Portis is the starting RB, Betts' presence forces me to lower Portis' numbers. Betts is likely to get passing downs, which will hurt Portis' value in PPR leagues. Plus Betts is likely to get garbage time, which takes away from Portis' value.

I'll stay conservative on Portis:

250 carries 1025 yards and 6 TDs rushing, with 20 catches for 180 yards and 1 TD receiving

 
toxicbees said:
If you ask me, you can't ignore Betts' numbers last year. He performed excellent down the stretch, and against some stout defenses none the less. While there is no question that Portis is the starting RB, Betts' presence forces me to lower Portis' numbers. Betts is likely to get passing downs, which will hurt Portis' value in PPR leagues. Plus Betts is likely to get garbage time, which takes away from Portis' value.I'll stay conservative on Portis:250 carries 1025 yards and 6 TDs rushing, with 20 catches for 180 yards and 1 TD receiving
Click to expand...
you're forgetting all about his passing TDs!
 
Betts had 4 tds in 245 carries -- Portis had 7 tds in 127 carries

I see Betts eating into some yardage for Portis but thats about it.

285 carries for 1,254 yards 13 TDs

24 receptions for 171 yards and 1 td

 
Shermanator said:
I am amazed at the optimism on Portis in this thread. If true he will be an incredible steal in drafts this year
Click to expand...
I agree shermanator....btw, how's Naudia doing?and as a Portis owner...this thread is giving me great confidence going into this dynasty season with my 25 year old rb..... :)
 
Per Rotoworld

Clinton Portis-RB-Redskins Jul. 31 - 6:50 pm et Clinton Portis is again experiencing tendonitis in his knee at Redskins camp.The 'Skins will be "extra careful" with the injury, which now seems to be more of a problem than it was during minicamps with the issue lingering and the preseason nearing. Ladell Betts' practice reps will increase. Beat writer Jason LaCanfora believes Portis' knee issues could become a daily concern.Source: Washington Post Related: Ladell Betts
Click to expand...
Does this worry you? Currently he is a mid 2nd round selection. Would you drop him somewhat because of this?
 
The Scientist said:
Per Rotoworld

Clinton Portis-RB-Redskins Jul. 31 - 6:50 pm et Clinton Portis is again experiencing tendonitis in his knee at Redskins camp.The 'Skins will be "extra careful" with the injury, which now seems to be more of a problem than it was during minicamps with the issue lingering and the preseason nearing. Ladell Betts' practice reps will increase. Beat writer Jason LaCanfora believes Portis' knee issues could become a daily concern.Source: Washington Post Related: Ladell Betts
Click to expand...
Does this worry you? Currently he is a mid 2nd round selection. Would you drop him somewhat because of this?
Click to expand...
That's certainly not good news as that was a problem that had supposedly resolved by now. We'll have to wait and see.
 
Crap. Just the other day someone posted something saying he was running full speed without pain. This is bad news. Tendonitis could tend to linger and will only get worse with increased load. He may have to take more time off to let it heal completely. Another RB with question marks. The list is very long this year.

 
Deuce said:
Crap. Just the other day someone posted something saying he was running full speed without pain. This is bad news. Tendonitis could tend to linger and will only get worse with increased load. He may have to take more time off to let it heal completely. Another RB with question marks. The list is very long this year.
Click to expand...
makes guys like Ronnie Brown and Edge more favorable,and both are slowly, quietly, climbing up the ranks..
 
I love Portis, and maybe I am overreacting, but at this point, I think I'd rather a stud WR in round 2 than CP. If this lingers, the question becomes when to draft betts?

 
Why isn't this injury good news? After reading the Gore thread I thought getting hurt in the preseason was a good thing.

 
If reasonable healthy, I see Portis/Betts much like Addai/Rhodes from '06. Betts gets used to soften up the defense, Portis delivers the knockout blows.

With a 55/45 distribution and the Redskins likely to rush 500 times I see it shaking out like this:

Portis 275/ 1155 (4.2YPC) 10TDs

That looks like solid RB2 numbers to me.

 
Tendonitis isn't that big of a deal is it? Isn't it primarily a pain control issue? I would imagine they'll just continue to rest him as much as they can in the pre-season.

 
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