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Player Spotlight: Tatum Bell (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tatum Bell, RB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Tatum Bell Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
Martz will quickly learn that Bell may be the worst pass catching RB in football. I think Bell is what he is at this point. A solid change of pace RB. He cant carry the full load cuz hell start fumbling or losing effectiveness. I think Detroit will bring Jones back slowly which means Bell should get about 4 solid starts to start the season. After Jones comes back I can see Bell getting 15-20% of the snaps. I dont expect him to steal goalline touches or anything.

Bell:

Without Jones (IM assuming 4 games): 56 att, 240 yds, 1 td, 8 rec, 60 yds, 0 td

After Jones returns (my assumption is after the 4th game): 84 att, 420 yds, 1 td, 8 rec, 60 yds, 0 td

 
With the early returns in the Kevin Jones Spotlight indicating most doubt Jones will be ready to start the season, it stands to reason Tatum Bell potentially represents great value given his current ADP.

Agree? Disagree?

 
I think that Duckett is more of a factor than people expect . . . I agree with the first poster . . . Bell is not a good blocker or receiver . . . I am surprised they traded for him . . . maybe Foster was the primary guy and not Bell . . .

anyway . . .

104/399/1

and

11/58/0

 
Jason Wood said:
With the early returns in the Kevin Jones Spotlight indicating most doubt Jones will be ready to start the season, it stands to reason Tatum Bell potentially represents great value given his current ADP.Agree? Disagree?
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The oline is still horrible, Jones' value came from him being a phenomenal receiver which Bell is the complete opposite, and Duckett will probably get goalline carries over Bell. In other words I wouldnt bother drafting him.
 
I don't see Duckett as much of a threat and who knows about Jones. Bell has blazing speed and could perform surprisingly well on the Detroit fast track, if he gets around the corner he will be gone. I don't worry about his hands, Jones wasnt much of a passcatcher before Martz got hold of him either. Bell wasnt a good fit for the ZBS, should be interesting to see how he responds to a change in schemes.

 
Thoughts from Brian Flood of Rotowire via USAToday, with thoughts from NFL.com's Pat Kirwin:....

Bell Could Charm Motown

I recently had an opportunity to speak with NFL.com's Pat Kirwan, one of the most respected men around the league. While discussing my previous column on backup running backs, he quickly jumped on the fact that I didn't mention the Detroit backfield situation. The conversation went something like this:

Me: "I wanted to see how it plays out and if Kevin Jones looks healthy."

Kirwan: "Tatum"

Me: "Really? Away from Denver? In a pass-happy offense?"

Kirwan: "Tatum"

His enthusiasm over Bell really got me excited from a fantasy perspective. Plus, Kirwan was basically running the New York Jets when I was still playing in free Yahoo! public leagues.

Fantasy football veterans know that a running back is going to come out of nowhere to provide unexpected value almost every season. In 2007, that player could easily be Tatum Bell.

Yes, I'm aware that they still have the aforementioned Kevin Jones and the newly acquired T.J. Duckett. It might not matter.

Jones is coming off a serious Lisfranc injury to his foot and could even end up on the PUP list to start the season. Jon Kitna recently said that Jones looked good at minicamp, but I don't buy it. We're talking about a guy who also recently said the Lions would win 10 games. Jones might not ever be the same player we saw before the injury. Detroit wouldn't have parted with Dre' Bly if they felt Kevin Jones would be ready to carry the load by Week 1.

Duckett is a candidate to steal goal-line carries, but it shouldn't deter fantasy owners. Bell will do his damage mostly on draw plays when teams are afraid to stack the box because Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson will burn them downfield. Bell is a terrific draw-play runner and offensive coordinator Mike Martz will utilize those skills early and often this season.

Bell didn't get too many opportunities to catch balls out of the backfield in Denver. In fact, he only had 47 receptions in three seasons. This was a result of the Broncos' offensive style, not a sign of Bell's inability to haul in passes. The Lions expect Bell to work on his hands and receiving ability, something he's been doing throughout the offseason.

A healthy Jones caught 61 passes in 12 games for the Lions last season. If Martz and Co. expect Bell to fill that role, his fantasy value in points-per-reception leagues will obviously skyrocket.

The Lions finished dead last in the NFL with only 19 rushing attempts per game last season, probably putting a sour taste in the mouths of anyone who owned their running backs in fantasy play. However, they often had to abandon the run when trailing last year and many people around the league expect them to be improved in 2007. They'll run the ball more often if they're more competitive and fantasy owners should take that into consideration on draft day.

Keep in mind that Jones was a nice fantasy contributor while the team was hardly running the ball last season, and it's easy to understand how the Lions' offense can turn Bell into a valuable player even if they're primarily a pass-first team. If they run the ball a little more this season – it's a nice bonus.

Bell wore out his welcome in Denver because head coach Mike Shanahan was sick of his fumbling issues, not because he isn't a capable back. Plus, we all know Shanahan isn't afraid to trade high-upside running backs to improve his defense (think Clinton Portis for Champ Bailey). Bell has all the tools and the opportunity to be a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes if he can cure his case of the drops and adjust to a new offense. He's a terrific high-upside player to target in the middle rounds on draft day.
Click to expand...
Link: http://fantasybasketball.usatoday.com/cont...articleid=28493
 
Also a blurp about Bell from a couple of weeks ago:

In an interview with CBS SportsLine, Lions WR Roy Williams was complimentary of new running back Tatum Bell, and thinks he'll be the starter this season in Motown. "We have two real good backs with two different styles," Williams said. "Tatum is the faster running back, but Kevin will run you over. Tatum is looking good right now and it looks like his job for the time being. He's able to cut quickly -- I call it the Denver cut. He'll Denver cut you and beat you with his speed. And he can catch. With coach Martz, if you can't catch, you won't play."

 
Without Kevin Jones and missing 3-4 games

190 carries / 920 yards / 5 TDs

39 catches / 376 yards / 2 TDs

He could be a steal this year if you ask me...depending on KJ of course.

 
Tatum Bell has been given new life. He is playing for a coach that lacks Shanahan's intolerance of inconsistent performance, and he's going to start the season with very little competition for playing time, so he should have plenty of opportunities to show what he can do. His career ypc is extremely high, so I think there's a good chance that it remains very solid in Detroit, and since most coaching staffs value ypc more than success rate, there's a very intriguing possibility that Bell will wind up stealing the starter job. What's more, KJ demonstrated last year that, O-Line or no O-Line, an RB could definitely be a fantasy force even in Detroit.

The biggest negative facing Bell is that he's a horrible receiver, and Detroit's RBs are generally valuable because of their receiving. The biggest positive for Bell is that he's often cheap. I think you could do a lot worse than grabbing KJ/Bell around a turn and locking up Detroit's RB situation, although if I was forced to pick one or the other, I'd much rather have KJ than Bell.

Another big point worth noting is that Bell is a free agent after this season, which opens up all sorts of very interesting possibilities in dynasty leagues. If Bell plays well and KJ returns strong from his injury, it's possible that the KJ/Bell duo will not just lock up Detroit's running game this season, it might also net you TWO starting RBs next year.

I'd project numbers for Bell, but it's a pretty pointless exercise. Bell's value doesn't lie in what I think he's likely to do this season, it lies entirely in what he could POSSIBLY do if all of the cards fell just right. Bell's essentially the kind of player who, in all likelihood, will finish the season as a waste of a roster spot... but who you're better off rostering anyway on the off chance that you're wrong.

 
and before Martz came to town, since when was Kevin Jones thought of as a prolific pass catcher? He too could have been a product of the system. No reason to doubt Bell's chances until we see him in his new role. Denver was never a huge offense to throw to the RB's.

 
Splicer said:
and before Martz came to town, since when was Kevin Jones thought of as a prolific pass catcher? He too could have been a product of the system. No reason to doubt Bell's chances until we see him in his new role. Denver was never a huge offense to throw to the RB's.
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Valid point Splicer. Just take a look at Jones' college production (24 career catches) and his totals before Martz came to town. I'm willing to give Martz a chance to see what he can do with Bell this year.
 
My four largest RB questions going into the season.

1. Is Maroney healthy? (Big bust factor)

2. Will Arz (Edge) really carry the ball > 500 times. (Value play)

3. Who will win the Titan RB job? (This is a better RB situation then most realize)

4. Will KJ start the year on the PUP? (Bell could be a huge PPR value)

Needless to say I am interested in this situation. If KJ does start on the PUP list, Bell *Could* be a huge value play.

1K yards and 60 rec is not out of the question if he plants himself as the starter.

 
In Martz's offense the RB has to recognize the blitz and protect his QB.

Bell is mediocre at best in this area.

Combine that with poor receiving skills and fumblitis and I think he's change of pace at best upon KJ's return.

 
I absolutely LOVE Tatum Bell this year as far as value. True Bell did not catch a lot of passes, but you have to look at what Denver did last year offensively and that was run, run, run. Tatum was not THAT bad in Denver as he did go over 1000 yards and averaged just under 4.4 YPC. I really believe TB can succeed in Mike Martz's offense if given the change. Calhoune is hurt and is basically a rookie, and Duckett is not the type of back Martz like within the offense. He may steal some goal line carries. Another factor I like, is I think people are underestimating how fast Bell is when healthy. This dude is lightening fast and I for one can't wait to see how fast he is on Detroit's astroturf.

Also, Detoit has more weapons this year than Denver had last year. Last year, people knew it was either going to be a running play, or a pass to Javon Walker. Defenses this year must watch out for Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Fuerry, AND THEN Tatum Bell. This will lead to Bell getting lose at least couple of times per game. Bell COULD be this year's SOD.

250 carries for 1100 7 TDs

30 catches for 200 1 TD

1300 yards and 8 TDs :lmao: Not bad..

My personaly prediction. Kevin Jones is DONE..

 
Splicer said:
and before Martz came to town, since when was Kevin Jones thought of as a prolific pass catcher? He too could have been a product of the system. No reason to doubt Bell's chances until we see him in his new role. Denver was never a huge offense to throw to the RB's.
Click to expand...
According to Football Outsiders, Tatum Bell has been one of the worst two receiving RBs in the entire NFL on a per-play basis for both of the past two seasons. According to the same people, Kevin Jones was mediocre before Martz came. KJ definitely improved under Martz... but at the same time, Kevin Jones was never the worst in the league. Also, it's not a system thing- Denver has produced several other RBs (Mike Anderson and Reuben Droughns, most recently) who were decent at catching the ball on a per-play basis (again, according to Football Outsiders).It's one thing if Tatum Bell was merely a bad passcatcher, but over the past two seasons, he hasn't been bad, he has been positively cover-your-eyes-and-look-away awful. He averaged 3.7 yards per target last year. :lmao:
 
I don't feel that Bell is super-talented, but a solid speed RB. Not playing in DEN and in there scheme will hurt his value for sure. Counteracting some of that however, is the fact that he will likely be able to utilize his speed in DET and he could catch a ton of passes in Martz's offense.

While I'm not a Bell fan, his upside is pretty solid if KJ isn't back right away or isn't right when he does get back.

All of that said, the RB situation in DET is a mess right now. I think I'd pass on both Bell and KJ unless they fell pretty far on draft day. I guess I'd be more inclined to focus on KJ though, with the hopes that he'll be back to form in the 2nd half of the season.

 
When I consider the Detroit Lion RB position, the first thing that I recall is Kevin Jones and his severe foot injury and subsequent Lisfranc surgery. He had the surgery on December 13, 2006. On a scale of one to three, Bellamy, the Lions chief trainer described the injury as a "three-plus," because of the severity. Follow-up reports have been all over the map, back before the season opener, may be placed on the PUP list, seen running, you just don't know what will happen. But, foot surgeries are difficult to rehab from and feet are extremely important for an RB.

The next thing I think about is Tatum Bell and his quickness and speed on the astroturf. I have read many threads on Bell this off-season and most all reference his poor receiving skills. For his career, he has caught 71.2% of his targets, which is not bad at all. His career ypc is poor at only 6.4, but he has speed and moves, so he could be teachable as to where to go on the routes and how to be ready and improve greatly. I would expect that Martz could have some positive effect on those abilities.

I don't see the remainder of the Lion RBs as a serious threat to overtake carries from Bell if he can prove worthy of the job. I think that it will be his to lose and in a contract year with a new opportunity and a great teacher, you see great things from Bell. He will be spelled occasionally to assist him to last through the year, so his carries may not be as high as some starters, but where you can get him he presents a nice value play. Depending on whether Kevin Jones is PUP or not, would affect whether I considered drafting them as a tandem. I will have a wait and see attitude on that.

Tatum Bell 240 carries 1080 yards (4.5 ypc) with 7 TDs and 40 catches 320 yards and 2 TDs

 
I don't trust K Jones' health at all and expect at least part of the year Bell will be "the man." He was inconsistent as hell in DEN and has his faults, but he's well worth risking at RB4, esp w/that offense opening things up in a Colts-wannabe kinda way. I don't exactly see a lot of 8 in the box here.

 
i think tatums turf toe injury derailed him last year just as he was about to explode in denver. anyone know if the turf toe will still be a factor early on?

 
BigRed said:
I don't exactly see a lot of 8 in the box here.
Click to expand...
This is what I keep coming back to in mind. I don't dig Tatum Bell as a runner that much(his style, that is. I won't argue he hasn't been fairly productive at times in limited reps) and I really don't want to have to consider him....but if Jones is out for any amount of time and he's getting regular touches in that offense......I'd certainly grab him at his current ADP and feel pretty okay about it. Even if Jones starts off healthy he almost certainly won't end up that way.220 carries for 990-1100 yards and 6-7 TDs. 25-30 catches for 250ish yards and maybe a couple scores.
 
5-ish Finkle said:
BigRed said:
I don't exactly see a lot of 8 in the box here.
Click to expand...
This is what I keep coming back to in mind. I don't dig Tatum Bell as a runner that much(his style, that is. I won't argue he hasn't been fairly productive at times in limited reps) and I really don't want to have to consider him....but if Jones is out for any amount of time and he's getting regular touches in that offense......
Click to expand...
And that's really what Bell's value all get down to, isn't it? Sounds like he should be the starter at least early in the season and if so well worth a late pick - any homers/insiders heard any updates on Jones lately?
 
i'm cautiously optimistic about T.Bell. i think he's in an offense that can utilize his speed and he's on turf.

i hear so much about his poor pass receiving skills...but i have to wonder how much of that was scheme related. the guy has a nice career yds/carry average but has a low career yds/reception average...but since he has only been in Denver i think you have to consider whether the denver scheme may contribute to that. the guy can obviously eat up real-estate with the ball in his hands. so if his yds/reception seems out of sync with his yds/carry, i'd want to see what situations he was getting targeted before i conclue that the guy can't catch.

is it possible he was getting targeted as a late progression safety valve due to scheme? if so, the QB has to have held the ball for a while to get that far in his progressions which means the D should be swarming and have their eyes up looking for the ball by the time it gets dumped to T.Bell. it may be as well that effective cut blocking at the line doesn't necessarily equate to good screen blocking in space. i'd have to go back and check the numbers but creative use of passes to RB's doesn't seem to come to mind when I think of Shanihan's offense.

having had K.Jones pre-Martz...I was wondering if KJ had the receiving skills that Martz would want when i first heard Martz was going to Det. turns out that KJ did alright. And i seem to recall Martz complimenting T.Bell on his pass-catching ability so I am not too concerned.

i worry more about his fumbling than i do his receiving skills.

 
laughinboy_2000 said:
I absolutely LOVE Tatum Bell this year as far as value. True Bell did not catch a lot of passes, but you have to look at what Denver did last year offensively and that was run, run, run. Tatum was not THAT bad in Denver as he did go over 1000 yards and averaged just under 4.4 YPC. I really believe TB can succeed in Mike Martz's offense if given the change. Calhoune is hurt and is basically a rookie, and Duckett is not the type of back Martz like within the offense. He may steal some goal line carries. Another factor I like, is I think people are underestimating how fast Bell is when healthy. This dude is lightening fast and I for one can't wait to see how fast he is on Detroit's astroturf. Also, Detoit has more weapons this year than Denver had last year. Last year, people knew it was either going to be a running play, or a pass to Javon Walker. Defenses this year must watch out for Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Fuerry, AND THEN Tatum Bell. This will lead to Bell getting lose at least couple of times per game. Bell COULD be this year's SOD.250 carries for 1100 7 TDs30 catches for 200 1 TD1300 yards and 8 TDs :lmao: Not bad..My personaly prediction. Kevin Jones is DONE..
Click to expand...
SO you mean i should trade ( Dynasty ) Deangelo Williams for Bell and Quinn that sthe offer i have on the table .
 
JamesTheScot said:
i'm cautiously optimistic about T.Bell. i think he's in an offense that can utilize his speed and he's on turf.i hear so much about his poor pass receiving skills...but i have to wonder how much of that was scheme related. the guy has a nice career yds/carry average but has a low career yds/reception average...but since he has only been in Denver i think you have to consider whether the denver scheme may contribute to that. the guy can obviously eat up real-estate with the ball in his hands. so if his yds/reception seems out of sync with his yds/carry, i'd want to see what situations he was getting targeted before i conclue that the guy can't catch.is it possible he was getting targeted as a late progression safety valve due to scheme? if so, the QB has to have held the ball for a while to get that far in his progressions which means the D should be swarming and have their eyes up looking for the ball by the time it gets dumped to T.Bell. it may be as well that effective cut blocking at the line doesn't necessarily equate to good screen blocking in space. i'd have to go back and check the numbers but creative use of passes to RB's doesn't seem to come to mind when I think of Shanihan's offense.having had K.Jones pre-Martz...I was wondering if KJ had the receiving skills that Martz would want when i first heard Martz was going to Det. turns out that KJ did alright. And i seem to recall Martz complimenting T.Bell on his pass-catching ability so I am not too concerned.i worry more about his fumbling than i do his receiving skills.
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Mike Bell had 5.8 ypt last year. Mike Anderson had 10.1 the year before (and an 86% catch%). Droughns had 5.5 in 2004. Not great, true, but worlds better than 3.7, and Droughns is another guy known for mediocre-to-poor hands.
 
Traders2001 said:
laughinboy_2000 said:
I absolutely LOVE Tatum Bell this year as far as value. True Bell did not catch a lot of passes, but you have to look at what Denver did last year offensively and that was run, run, run. Tatum was not THAT bad in Denver as he did go over 1000 yards and averaged just under 4.4 YPC. I really believe TB can succeed in Mike Martz's offense if given the change. Calhoune is hurt and is basically a rookie, and Duckett is not the type of back Martz like within the offense. He may steal some goal line carries. Another factor I like, is I think people are underestimating how fast Bell is when healthy. This dude is lightening fast and I for one can't wait to see how fast he is on Detroit's astroturf. Also, Detoit has more weapons this year than Denver had last year. Last year, people knew it was either going to be a running play, or a pass to Javon Walker. Defenses this year must watch out for Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Fuerry, AND THEN Tatum Bell. This will lead to Bell getting lose at least couple of times per game. Bell COULD be this year's SOD.250 carries for 1100 7 TDs30 catches for 200 1 TD1300 yards and 8 TDs :) Not bad..My personaly prediction. Kevin Jones is DONE..
Click to expand...
SO you mean i should trade ( Dynasty ) Deangelo Williams for Bell and Quinn that sthe offer i have on the table .
Click to expand...
I hope that you are kidding.
 
Tatum Bell fell to the 8th round in my 14-team draft, and I'm lucky, because I'm dying at RB2.

I'm actually starting to think he may be a solid RB2 this year now that I read some of these posts.

Am I smoking crack?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Bell certainly has a great opportunity here - but he has had even better opportunities before and somehow underwhelmed. Bell should be a decent #2 with upside for a while, but even if Kevin Jones is out on half the year, there is a very good chance Bell won't continue to be a viable option after that.

Obviously, it can unfold in a lot of ways, but that has to be one of the more likely scenarios.

 
LordHusker said:
Tatum Bell fell to the 8th round in my 14-team draft, and I'm lucky, because I'm dying at RB2. I'm actually starting to think he may be a solid RB2 this year now that I read some of these posts. Am I smoking crack?
Click to expand...
Tatum Bell is a band-aid, nothing more. Counting on him to produce for a full season is courting trouble, in my mind.
 
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